Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000651
Name FRANCISCO-20
From - To 04 Feb - 14 Feb
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius,
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 74 km/h Tropical storm
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (14 Feb 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 65 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5
GFS 112 km/h 0.5 m 707 mm 0.5
ECMWF 83 km/h 0.5 m 947 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO (ECHO 14 Feb 2020)Fri, 14 Feb 2020 10:59

  • Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO re-formed in the Indian Ocean on 13 February, moving south-west towards the east of Madagascar. On 13 February, at 18.00 UTC, its centre was approx. 53 km east of Toamasina City (Atsinanana Region), with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (tropical storm).
  • FRANCISCO will make landfall in the afternoon of 14 February over the south-east coast of Atsinanana Region, close to Vatomandry City, with maximum sustained winds up to 93 km/h (tropical storm)before weakening to a tropical depression as it moves south-west. 
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rain, thunderstorms and strong winds are forecast across central, central-east and south-east Madagascar.
  • Meteo Madagascar has issued a red vigilance advisory for heavy rain over Toamasina, Brickaville, Mahanoro, and Vatomandry Districts (central-eastern Madagascar).
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),