Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MILTON-24
in Mexico, United States

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone MILTON-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001111
Name MILTON-24
Glide number: TC-2024-000183-USA
From - To 05 Oct - 10 Oct
Exposed countries Mexico, United States
Exposed population 4.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h Category 5
Maximum storm surge 2.5 m (10 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 111 km/h 2.5 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 292 km/h n.a. 680 mm 2.5
GFS 180 km/h 2.3 m 610 mm 1.5
ECMWF 97 km/h 2.2 m 327 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
United States, Mexico - Hurricane MILTON (ECHO 12 Oct 2024)Mon, 07 Oct 2024 10:45

  • A new tropical cyclone named MILTON formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on 5 October in the afternoon (UTC) and started moving east toward the central Florida peninsula (USA), strengthening. On 7 October at 6.00 UTC its centre was located over the Gulf, west of the Yucatán peninsula, southern Mexico and approximately 1,240 km south-west of the Tampa city area, central Florida peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h (category 1 hurricane).
  • MILTON is expected to continue northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico on 7-8 October, further strengthening, with maximum sustained winds up to 230 km/h (category 4 hurricane). After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the central Florida peninsula, just south of the Tampa city area, on 9 October late in the afternoon (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 213 km/h (category 4 hurricane).
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the whole Florida peninsula starting from 8 October. Heavy rainfall is also forecast over the northern Yucatán peninsula on 7-8 October.
United States, Mexico - Hurricane MILTON, update (ECHO 13 Oct 2024)Tue, 08 Oct 2024 10:33

  • Hurricane MILTON, that formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on 5 October, is strengthening and moving east towards the coast of the central Florida peninsula (USA). On 8 October at 6.00 UTC its centre was located over the Gulf, north of the Yucatán peninsula approximately 900 km south-west of Tampa city in central Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h (category 4 hurricane).
  • MILTON is expected to turn toward east-northeast over the Gulf of Mexico on 8 October and it will make landfall over the western coast of Florida on the night of 9 October (UTC).
  • Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the whole Florida peninsula starting from 9 October.
  • A hurricane warning is in effect from Celestun to Rio Lagartos, in the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.
United States, Mexico - Hurricane MILTON, update (ECHO 14 Oct 2024)Wed, 09 Oct 2024 09:54

  • Hurricane MILTON continued northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico on 8 October as a category 4-5 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds up to 269 km/h. On 9 October at 6.00 UTC its centre was located over the southern Gulf of Mexico, north-east of the Yucatán peninsula, southern Mexico and approximately 510 km south-west of the Sarasota city area, just south of the Tampa city, central Florida peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (category 5 hurricane).
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 8 October, 11 counties currently under evacuation order across Florida.
  • MILTON is expected to continue northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on 9 October, slightly weakening. After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the Tampa and Sarasota city area early in the morning of 10 October, with maximum sustained winds up to 213 km/h (category 4 hurricane).
  • Over the next 48 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the whole Florida peninsula and the Florida Big Bend region. NOAA issued a hurricane warning and a storm surge warning over most of Florida.
MILTON-24 - EC/ECHO daily mapWed, 09 Oct 2024 16:04

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
United States - Hurricane MILTON, update (ECHO 15 Oct 2024)Thu, 10 Oct 2024 10:44

  • Hurricane MILTON continued northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on 9 October as a category 3-5 hurricane (major hurricane), weakening. After that, it made landfall over the Sarasota city area, western coast of the central Florida peninsula on 10 October around 0.30 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (category 3 hurricane). On 10 October at 6.00 UTC its centre was located inland over the greater Orlando city area, central Florida peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h (category 1 hurricane).
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 10 October, more than 31,000 evacuated people in 149 shelters and 27 counties under evacuation order across the Florida peninsula.
  • MILTON is expected to continue northeastward over the weastern North Atlantic Ocean on 10-11 October, far off the eastern Florida coast, further weakening into a tropical storm.
  • Over the next 24 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are still forecast over most of Florida. The hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings issued by NOAA over the state remain in effect.
USA - Hurricane MILTON, update (ECHO 16 Oct 2024)Fri, 11 Oct 2024 11:54

  • Hurricane MILTON crossed central Florida after it made landfall near Siesta Key in the western coast of the peninsula on 10 October bringing heavy rainfall, very strong winds and tornadoes. After that, it moved over the Atlantic Ocean weakening into a post tropical-cyclone. 
  • According to media, more than a dozen people died while three million people experienced power cuts. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports as of 10 October, more than 83,000 sheltered people and 27 counties were under evacuation orders, 15 under mandatory evacuation.
  • For the next 24 hours, moderate rainfall and strong winds are forecast over central Florida. Gale warnings are in effect across the central-eastern coast of the peninsula.
United States - Hurricane MILTON, update (ECHO 19 Oct 2024)Mon, 14 Oct 2024 09:30

  • Hurricane MILTON made landfall over the Sarasota city area, just south of the Tampa city area, western coast of the central Florida peninsula on 10 October around 0.30 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (category 3 hurricane). After that, it passed over the central Florida peninsula in the morning  of 10 October and continued eastward over the North Atlantic Ocean, further weakening and dissipating on 11 October.
  • Its passage caused very heavy rainfall, strong winds, storm surges and severe flooding. HOPE reports, as of 12 October, 17 fatalities across the Florida peninsula.
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 13 October, nearly 2,800 still evacuated people in 40 shelters, around 3,500 evacuated households - in Hernando county alone - 573 rescued people, 50 closed roads and six counties still under evacuation orders across the Florida peninsula. The Government of Florida declared the state of emergency for 51 counties, out of a total of 67.
  • Over the next 48 hours, drier conditions are expected over the whole of Florida.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

United States - Hurricane MILTON, update (GDACS, NOAA, FEMA, HOPE, IFR.. 10/14/2024 1:18:00 PM.

Hurricane MILTON made landfall over the Sarasota city area, just south of the Tampa city area, western coast of the central Florida peninsula on 10 October around 0.30 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (category 3 hurricane). Af
...(more)
U.S.-FLORIDA-HURRICANE MILTON-DAMAGE 10/12/2024 12:13:00 PM.

(241012) -- TAMPA, Oct. 12, 2024 (Xinhua) -- Damaged cars are seen after the Hurricane Milton in Tampa, Florida, the United States, Oct. 11, 2024. Hurricane Milton hit the southeast U.S. state of Florida overnight with strong winds, destruc
...(more)
Battered Florida begins long recovery from back-to-back major hurrican.. 10/12/2024 9:08:00 AM.

Millions of Floridians began a long and difficult recovery on Friday after the state’s second major hurricane in two weeks, restoring power, shoveling mud from flooded homes and clearing mountains of debris left by Milton and Helene. While
...(more)
FLORIDA. L''URAGANO MILTON E IL RACCONTO DA SFOLLATO DI PIETRO CAUCCHI.. 10/12/2024 9:03:00 AM.

Qui - ha raccontato Caucchioli a L’Arena - c’è stata un’ottima prevenzione. Hanno evacuato tutta la città. Ma a Sarasota e Saint Petersburg sono senza elettricità da inizio settimana. Hanno fatto evacuare tutte le persone che vivevano in ca
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),