Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MILTON-24
in Mexico, United States

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 102035
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton's satellite appearance has continued to take on an
extratropical appearance, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago
confirmed that the cyclone has become frontal. Based on that
information, Milton was declared post tropical in the 2 pm
intermediate advisory. The ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of
55-60 kt to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity
is set to 60 kt.

Milton has turned eastward and sped up a bit (080/18 kt). A
general eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next several days, with the extratropical low
forecast to pass south of Bermuda in 24-36 hours. Global model
fields and intensity models indicate that the intensity should
gradually decrease during the next several days, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. Dissipation is shown by day 4,
although there is still some uncertainty if Milton will become
absorbed by the frontal zone before that time, or retain its
identity beyond 4 days.

Since all storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been
discontinued, this will be the last advisory on Milton. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds and coastal flooding will gradually diminish along
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.

2. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of
considerable urban flooding will linger through this evening across
east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing
and forecast throughout central Florida.

3. In Florida, continue to use caution since deadly hazards remain,
including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators
are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away
from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using
chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.5N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 11/0600Z 29.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1800Z 29.8N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z 31.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 102034
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.6N 72.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...220NE 0SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.7N 49.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 76.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 102034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MILTON HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton
was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 76.3 West. Milton
is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
several days. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will pass to the south of Bermuda late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is expected to continue along
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight. The water
could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the
indicated areas...

Altamaha Sound, GA to Port Canaveral, FL...1-3 ft
St. Johns River...1-3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts up to an inch are possible
along the northeastern coast of Florida through this evening. In the
wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban
flooding will linger through this evening across east central
Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast
throughout central Florida.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Gusty winds will likely continue along portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101730
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...MILTON BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE STILL OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued south
of the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia,
including the St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to Edisto Beach South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Milton was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 77.5 West.
Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h).
A turn toward the east is expected later today, with that motion
forecast to continue over the western Atlantic for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to
move away from the east coast of Florida and pass north of the
northwestern Bahamas this afternoon.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate Milton has become a powerful
post-tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
northwest of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts around an inch are possible
along the northeastern coast of Florida through today. In the wake
of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban
flooding will linger through this morning across east central
Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast
throughout central Florida.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical
storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina for the
next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 78.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia
County Line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bimini.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island and
the Abacos

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn
toward the east is expected later today, with that motion forecast
to continue over the western Atlantic for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move away
from the east coast of Florida and pass north of the northwestern
Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical storm
this afternoon or evening, with gradual weakening expected during
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km). A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 44 mph (71 km/h) were recently reported at Settlement Point on
Grand Bahama Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts around an inch are possible
along the northeastern coast of Florida through today. In the wake
of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban
flooding will linger through this morning across east central
Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast
throughout central Florida.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue within the tropical storm
warning areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the
extreme northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 101443
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton is quickly taking on extratropical characteristics, with
convection more closely aligned along a warm frontal boundary to
the northeast than the center itself. Due to the structure
evolution, it is likely that the strongest winds are located to the
northwest of the center. The intensity is lowered to 70 kt, based
on continuity from the previous forecast. Scatterometer passes are
expected in a few hours and should allow us to get a better handle
on Milton's intensity and structure.

The hurricane has turned east-northeastward (065/17 kt). Milton is
located within the base of a deep-layer trough located over the
western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the storm eastward
later today, with that motion continuing for the next 3 days. The
NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous prediction to
follow the recent trends in the model guidance.

Global model fields show low-level thickness contours packing
closer together on the northwest side through the day, and it is
therefore likely that Milton will complete extratropical transition
by this afternoon or evening. Milton will still be a powerful
post-tropical cyclone, but its maximum winds are expected to
gradually decrease during the next few days. The post-tropical low
is expected to become diffuse and will likely dissipate in about 4
days.


Key Messages:

1. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the east
coast of Florida and southern coast of Georgia. Storm surge
inundation will continue in these areas through this afternoon.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
southeast U.S. coast through this afternoon and over the extreme
northwestern Bahamas through this evening.

3. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of
considerable urban flooding will linger through this afternoon
across east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is
ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida.

4. Use caution after the storm as deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using
chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 29.1N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 29.6N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1200Z 29.9N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 30.0N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 29.9N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0000Z 30.4N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 101441
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 78.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 78.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 75.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 160SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.9N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.4N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...CENTER OF MILTON PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE
SPACE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warnings south of Sebastian Inlet and north of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line have been changed to Tropical Storm
Warnings.

The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida west coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet northward to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach South
Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will
continue to move away from Florida and pass to the north of the
Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to
become a powerful extratropical low tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to
76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in
Marineland. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 67
mph (108 km/h) was recently reported at the Cocoa-Patrick Air Force
Base.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast
through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk
of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to
major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are occurring
within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 100842
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing
significant flooding and damaging winds near its path. The center
of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and
the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern
Florida. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest
winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida.

Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the
models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal
characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast
shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours. The
extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in
about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard
hurricane models for transitioning systems.

The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just
to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. A turn to the
east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal,
taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south
of Bermuda on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is a little faster
than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
models.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the
coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia,
where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern
Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away
from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula
through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...MILTON MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...STILL PRODUCING DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IN EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 80.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued
for the west coast of Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning for all
of the Florida Keys and from the Palm Beach-Broward County Line
southward have been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch for Martin
County and Lake Okeechobee have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River to
Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge
Warning has been discontinued from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
the Broward/Palm Beach County Line
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 80.5 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the east
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move
away from Florida and to the north of the Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to
become a powerful extratropical low tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A sustained wind of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 83
mph (134 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in
Marineland. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 76
mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on
South Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a
gust of 87 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach
International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast
through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk
of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to
major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area in Florida. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, South
Carolina, and the Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 100840
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 480SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...155NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 80.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 100756
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...STRONG WINDS SPREAD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CENTER
OF MILTON NEARS CAPE CANAVERAL...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a gust to 92 mph (148
km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland.
A sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South
Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust
of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at buoy 41069 near Ponce
de Leon Inlet. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 84
mph (135 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International
Airport.

This will be the final hourly position update for Milton since the
center of the hurricane is moving offshore of the east coast of
Florida. The next full forecast advisory for Milton will be at 500
AM EDT (0900 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 100658
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
300 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...300 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South
Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust
of 81 mph (130 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach
International Airport. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a
gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather
station at Cape Canaveral. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and
a gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Melbourne
International Airport.

The next position update will be at 0400 AM EDT (0800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 80.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100546
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES REMAIN IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 81.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
inland near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 81.3 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon,
followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part
of the Florida during the next few hours, and emerge off the east
coast of Florida around sunrise.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while
crossing Florida this morning. After moving into the Atlantic,
Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and
slowly weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). A sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph
(122 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape
Canaveral. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 75
mph (121 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International
Airport. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph
(101 km/h was recently reported at Melbourne International Airport.
A sustained wind of 33 mph (53 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h)
was recently reported at Orlando International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...4-7 ft
Charlotte Harbor...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula today. This rainfall will continue
to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area in Florida. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area through midday today. Tropical storm
conditions in the tropical storm warning area in Florida and will
spread to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas later today.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this morning over parts of
central and eastern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast today and along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Reinhart/Mahoney/Sardi


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 100457
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a gust of 79 mph (127 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport station in St.
Petersburg. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 74
mph (119 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando International
Airport. A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph
(108 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape
Canaveral.

The next position update will be at 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC) with the
intermediate advisory.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi/Mahoney/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 100357
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND...
...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 93 mph (150 km/h)
was recently reported at the Tampa International Airport and at a
Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Dundee. A sustained wind
of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently
reported at Orlando Executive Airport. A sustained wind of 44 mph
(69 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at
a WeatherFlow station near Melbourne.

The next position update will be at 100 AM EDT (0500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 81.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 100249
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar
imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that
Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of
Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central
Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated
a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease
in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90
kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds
at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of
extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in
an hour at St. Petersburg.

Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or
060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical
mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida
peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn
generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the
southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics.
The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model
consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days.

The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of
Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity
while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a
frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded
within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that
Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its
strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic,
dissipating after 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along
portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and
southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday
morning.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially
in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida
Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning
area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to
take shelter in an interior room and away from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON BRINGING DEVASTATING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of Anclote
River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located inland near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.0 West.
Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday,
followed by a turn toward the east on late Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across
the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off
the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while
crossing Florida overnight. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton
is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly
weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). A sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 107
mph (172 km/h) was recently reported at a UF Sentinel/WeatherFlow
station in Venice. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust
of 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Tampa International
Airport. A gust of 94 mph (152 km/h) was recently reported at a
Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Bartow. A sustained
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was
recently reported at Winter Haven Regional Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall will continue
to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area and are spreading east-northeastward across the
Florida peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and have
already reached the east coast of Florida. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the
Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through early Thursday
morning over parts of central and eastern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 100247
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 480SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 110SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 160SE 130SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 100156
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS
MILTON CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...
...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a gust of 102 mph (165
km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport. A sustained wind of 86 mph (139 km/h) and a gust of 105 mph
(169 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont
Channel. A sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust of 98 mph
(157 km/h) was recently reported at a NOS station at Middle Tampa
Bay. A gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a Citizen
Weather Observer Program station in Bartow.

A Flash Flood Emergency is in effect for the Tampa Bay area,
including the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater.
Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg has received 16.61 inches
of rain so far today.

The next update will be the full advisory at 1100 PM EDT (0300
UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 100058
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE AS MILTON MOVES INLAND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a gust of 93 mph (150
km/h) was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in St.
Petersburg. A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 100
mph (161 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at
Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust of
102 mph (165 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station
at Skyway Fishing Pier. A gust of 60 mph (97 km/h) was recently
reported at the Orlando Executive Airport.

The next update will be at 1000 PM EDT (0200 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 092355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 82.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 82.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Milton will make landfall just south of the Tampa Bay region
within the next hour or two, and then move across the central part
of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of
Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely
until landfall, and Milton is expected to remain a hurricane
while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. The system
is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become
extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of
96 mph (154 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton
International Airport. A C-MAN Station in Venice, Florida recently
reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) with a gust to 90
mph (145 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft
Tampa Bay...6-9 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area and will spread east-northeastward across the Florida
peninsula overnight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are
forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong
tornadoes, are likely this evening and tonight across parts of
central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 092258
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

The northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton is beginning to move
onshore of the Florida gulf coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg
where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect. Please shelter in
place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread
the region.

A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph
(114 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway
Fishing Pier.

The next update will be the intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT
(0000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 092157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Heavy rainfall continues over the central Florida peninsula with
hurricane-force wind gusts beginning to occur along the Florida gulf
coast.

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in
St. Petersburg.

The next update will be at 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...250 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 092055
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto
Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast
north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and
for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita
Beach have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward
the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this
evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it
will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida
through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western
Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM)
recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a
wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the
Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100
km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft
Tampa Bay...6-9 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are
possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of
Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach
the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong
tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of
central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 092056
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.

Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.

Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as
the center makes landfall.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and
early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves
across the central Florida Peninsula.

3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 092055
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 83.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 83.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 110SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 160SE 130SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 83.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 091957
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING...
...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...

Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland
across the Florida peninsula. A recent wind gust of 68 mph (109
km/h) was recorded at a mesonet site located in Fort Myers Beach.

There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across the
Florida peninsula. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be
ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an
interior room not prone to flooding.

The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM EDT
(2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 091859
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...

Tropical-storm-force winds are now moving onshore the west coast of
Florida. There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across
the Florida peninsula.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding.

The next update will be at 400 PM EDT (2000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Altamaha
Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.0 West. Milton is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected this evening
and tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected
on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight,
cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move
off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves
across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is
forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and
it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles
(280 km), especially to the north. A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083)
located about 50 miles east of the center recently reported a
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (112
km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across
parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 091700
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn
towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed
later this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to
stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready
in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio,
charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

The next update will be with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT
(1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 091554
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS...
...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds
or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.

Another position update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC)

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 84.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 091456
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong
southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt.
The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air
infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has
also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a
very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to
931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this
advisory.

Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this
evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since
Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected
to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models
and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely
to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the
winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move
off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On
another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.

Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.

We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.

Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very
serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow
orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations
and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of
hours.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The
time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly
coming to a close.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS
QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. Milton is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this
evening. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on
Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall
along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the
east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves
across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening
is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic,
and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles
northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph
(71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 931 mb (27.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across
parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 091455
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 84.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 091357
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...ENSURE YOU ARE IN YOUR SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF
STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life
and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are
in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible
flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

The next update will be with the routine advisory package at
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 091257
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
900 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING...
...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life
and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are
in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible
flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM EDT (1400 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091147
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...
...PREPARATIONS, INCLUDING EVACUATION IF TOLD TO DO SO, SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion
is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and
east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today,
make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight
or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida
over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida
tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across
parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090855
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category
5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and
Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a
compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on
aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the
maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of
Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted
based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT
passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across
portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of
Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.

Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located
over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue
until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur
late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches
the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another
trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit
Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and
accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.

The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin
to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some
weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will
remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and
maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The
cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on
Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while
it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal
boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well
outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and
residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local
emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations
should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one
of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090854
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday
morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western
Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb
(26.78 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida
tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across
parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 86.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.0 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday
morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic
Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while
Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the
west-central coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida through Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090242
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating
Milton again this evening, providing a number of center fixes,
flight-level wind data, dropsonde measurements, and other valuable
observations. Data from the aircraft confirmed that the hurricane
had regained category 5 intensity, with maximum winds near 145 kt
and the central pressure as low as 902 mb. More recent aircraft
observations showed that the central pressure had risen somewhat, so
the advisory intensity is adjusted slightly down, to 140 kt. This
is also consistent with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft and satellite images indicate that
Milton's heading is gradually turning toward the left and the
initial motion estimate is now about 055/10 kt. The system is being
steered by the flow between a trough digging over the Gulf of Mexico
and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Milton should move
northeastward on Wednesday with a slight increase in forward speed,
with the center of the hurricane reaching the Florida Gulf coast in
24 hours or so. Thereafter, the system should turn
east-northeastward to eastward and move over the southwestern
Atlantic off the southeast U.S. coast. The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west
coast of Florida. Although an expected increase in vertical wind
shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore. Also,
the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as
Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy
and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is near
the upper side of the intensity model guidance. After Milton moves
over the Atlantic, the global models show the system becoming
embedded within a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the
system becoming extratropical by 72 hours.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the
time the center moves over Florida. In addition, a large region of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the
northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting
with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition.
Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall
will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious
situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from
their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed tonight. Milton has the potential
to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for
west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090241
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 150SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 86.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 86.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Dzilam to Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 86.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected overnight
through Wednesday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is
expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the
Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while
Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the
west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the
peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
east coast of Florida late Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida through Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082359
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dzilam to Cancun Mexico
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 86.9 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight
through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east
is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight
and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the
Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with
higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but
Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 902 mb (26.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area in Mexico this evening.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday and
are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the
peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
east coast of Florida late Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 082130
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...

Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 165 mph (270 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 082054
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central
pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through
the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved
since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a
10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB,
with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and
145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with
maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is
entering Milton as we speak.

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is
forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about
24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not
be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could
occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be
interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical
transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a
very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely
follow orders from their local emergency management officials.
Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today.
Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive
hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with
destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 082053
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 87.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended
southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been
extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida east coast from
the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County
Line.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from
Celestun to west of Dzilam, has changed the Hurricane Warning from
Dzilam to Rio Lagartos to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has
discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dzilam to Cancun Mexico
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Milton wobbled
earlier today, but the longer-term motion is toward the
east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and
continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast
and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central
coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of
Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas
in Mexico this evening.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading
across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. Although Milton has
been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The
center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of
Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across
central Florida through Thursday.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 923 mb
(27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 081455
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.

The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood
threat.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 081454
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...260NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 160SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 88.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN
SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward along the
east coast of Florida to Port Canaveral.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama
Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida
through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move
east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected,
Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 929 mb
(27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR
MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard
County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte
Vedra Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of
Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to
Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte
Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
south of Celestun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St.
Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is
929 mb (27.43 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in tropical storm warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early
Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of
Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080834
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.

The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.

Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.

Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080832
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 88.9W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 300SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 88.9W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 88.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in tropical storm warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080541
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.2 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane will
likely make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The most recent minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate
to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida tonight through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080241
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Milton. Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters found that the
minimum central pressure in the eye had dropped to an estimated 897
mb. Based on this, Milton had the fifth lowest central pressure in
the Atlantic basin hurricane record. Subsequent center penetrations
by the aircraft indicated somewhat higher central pressures. Also,
flight-level and dropsonde data from the aircraft suggested some
decrease in intensity, and the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt.
The decrease is likely the result of an eyewall replacement reported
by the Hurricane Hunters, leading to a double wind maximum radially
from the center. Notwithstanding, Milton still remains an extremely
dangerous Category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is eastward, or 090/8 kt. Milton should continue
to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight
and early Tuesday. Then, the flow on the eastern side of a
mid-tropospheric shortwave trough dropping into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should cause Milton to move east-northeastward to
northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and
Wednesday. This motion should take the system across the Florida
peninsula on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, Milton is
expected to move east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic
waters off the southeast U.S. coast while gradually losing tropical
characteristics. The official track forecast is close to, but a
little faster than, the model consensus. This is also very similar
to the previous NHC forecast. As noted earlier, the track is closer
to the model predicted fields rather than the model trackers which
appear to be too far south.

So long as Milton remains in an environment of light shear and over
very high oceanic heat content, its maximum intensity should be
governed more by inner-core fluctuations. However the SHIPS
diagnostics indicate a significant increase in vertical wind shear
within 24 hours, likely associated with increasing southwesterly
upper-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore a
decrease in intensity is predicted before Milton reaches the western
coast of the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of the peak intensity,
the eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to an expansion of
the destructive inner core of the hurricane during the next day or
two. The system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at
landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline
and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the
orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton
has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on
record for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland
flooding combine to increase the overall threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.8N 89.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080238
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 200SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 89.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080238
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 89.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The most recent minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate
to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently
occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in
Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida Tuesday night through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD
LOW...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
on Wednesday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected,
Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 897 mb (26.49 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently
occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in
Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 072058
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane.
The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and
radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very
strong eyewall presentation. On the last fix before the plane
departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb
lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support
150 kt. Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair
of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more
information.

The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt. Milton should move
close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early
Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. This feature should then cause Milton to move
east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed
later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change was made to the
previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the
previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a
consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models.
Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the
model trackers which appear to be too far south.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record
for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte
Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake
Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward
and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been
issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and
Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including
the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the
mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 90.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula on Wednesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are
expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected
to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch
areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida
beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 072056
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 905 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 65SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 150SE 200SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 90.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071735
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
21.7 North, longitude 91.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east
near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially
catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and
Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue
to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071558 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected for location/distances in the summary section

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071553
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward
to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed
by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is
forecast to become a category 5 hurricane later today and become a
large hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue
to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071452
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...250NE 150SE 160SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 91.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071312 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected distance from Tampa

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071305
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...11185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 071149
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track
forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan,
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun
southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after
36 hours.

This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate
advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071147
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 92.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071147
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning from south of Celestun to Campeche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is
expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches)
based Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071100
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070907
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with
cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small
ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have
increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is raised to 85 kt.

The center has nudged a little southward over the past several
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h,
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed.
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more
eastward as it becomes extratropical.

For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane.
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore,
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the
Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition,
which should be complete by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with
damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070858
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with
cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small
ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have
increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is raised to 85 kt.

The center has nudged a little southward over the past several
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h,
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed.
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more
eastward as it becomes extratropical.

For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane.
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore,
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the
Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition,
which should be complete by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with
damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070857
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River,
including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from
Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor
and Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast
west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee
to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the
Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio
Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to
Cabo Catoche
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to
Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula..

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070856
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070531
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 93.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 93.0 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 6 mph (10 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico today and Tuesday
and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
this morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070242
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from
1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.

Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of
days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in
60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the
coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070241
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 93.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...110NE 20SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 93.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and
become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 93.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near
7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight. An
eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of
Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next
couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 062053
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very
deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to
appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the
central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80
minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since
that time, satellite images continue to show further organization,
and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.

Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This
evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and
then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the
Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The
NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern
coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly
north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the
forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on
the exact track.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to
not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early
Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice
given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through
Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the north
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cabo Catoche and a
Tropical Storm Warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is
forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on
Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast
to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern
Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to
spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within
the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 062051
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 20SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 210NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...110NE 20SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 93.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
INTO A HURRICANE....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward
the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on
Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north
of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061518 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Corrected for Motion description in the outlook section

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward
motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is
forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across
the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a
major hurricane late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 061458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and
intensity of Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later
today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward
motion is forecast on Tuesday and during the next couple of days,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a
major hurricane late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 061455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 10NE 25SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 15NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 140SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 94.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061149
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.6 North,
longitude 94.9 West. Milton has been moving slowly eastward
overnight, and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast
during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward
motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across
the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane later
today, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060848
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting
better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger
and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and
based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity
is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
enroute to investigate Milton.

Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt.
Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the
northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward
during the next 36-48 h. After that, a second trough moving over
the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward
toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed. While the
track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario,
there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it
is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will
get the worst impacts. After crossing Florida, Milton should turn
eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow. The
new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track
and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that
the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.
Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and
dry air entrainment after that time. Third, the proximity of a
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly. The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the
storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.


Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late today for portions of Florida.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060845
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060845
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060530
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON MOVING SLOWLY BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h). An eastward
to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could
become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.

The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central
dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to
the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates
range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the
moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only
about 30 n mi from the center.

The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains
embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is
expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This
trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on
Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast
across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days.
The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in
both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that
direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance
envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids.
It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is
around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the
exact track.

Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as
it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a
moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear
environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will
the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity
models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the
global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models
will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.

Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late Sunday for portions of Florida.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward
to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday
night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.

The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060230
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 95.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 052114 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Corrected references to a depression in discussion and hazards
sections

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A
slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to
remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night,
then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by
midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could
become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will
bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with
minor to moderate river flooding.

The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 052046
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of
the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of
35 kt. Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical
Storm Milton a few hours ago. The scatterometer data showed that
the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the
area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure
has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory.

Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt. Milton is not expected to
move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to
east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin
to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it
moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the
southeastern United States. This trough is expected to cause Milton
to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center
approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance
envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted
that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the
various dynamical models. The updated official forecast is slightly
north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are
again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for
strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind
shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls
for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major
hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to
be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC
intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but
upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane
models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of
the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple
life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 052046
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A
slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast
by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is
forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through
Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on
Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could
become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will
bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with
minor to moderate river flooding.

The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 052045
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 95.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 95.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 180SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 051725
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 051459
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.

The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 051458
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.

The depression is moving northeastward or 025/3 kt. The system is
forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the
next day or so. After that time, a trough moving southward over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the system to
turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster
forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected to move
northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and this
track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 051458
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to
northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across
the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 051457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 95.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN