Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for HELENE-24
in United States, Mexico, Belize

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone HELENE-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001101
Name HELENE-24
From - To 23 Sep - 27 Sep
Exposed countries United States, Mexico, Belize
Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 3.4 m (27 Sep 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 56 km/h 3.4 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 212 km/h 4.1 m 550 mm 1.5
GFS 148 km/h 3.1 m 1525 mm 0.5
ECMWF 126 km/h 3.3 m 1262 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico, Cuba, United States - Tropical cyclone HELENE (ECHO 30 Sep 2024)Wed, 25 Sep 2024 09:32

  • A new tropical cyclone named HELENE formed over the central-western Caribbean Sea on 23 September in the afternoon (UTC) and started moving north toward the Yucatán channel, between eastern Mexico and western Cuba, strenghtening. On 25 September at 6.00 UTC its centre was located over the sea in the Yucatán channel, approximately 100 km south-east of the Cancun city area, Mexico and around 1,000 km south of the Florida panhandle, north-western Florida, USA, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (tropical storm).
  • HELENE is expected to continue northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on 25-26 September, further strenghtening, with maximum sustained winds up to 167 km/h (category 2 hurricane). After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the Florida panhandle area on 27 September very early in the morning, with maximum sustained winds up to 194 km/h (category 3 hurricane).
  • Over the next 72 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the Yucatán peninsula (Mexico), most of Cuba and the whole Florida (USA). NOAA issued hurricane warnings over these areas in Mexico and Florida.
Mexico, Belize, Cuba, United States - Hurricane HELENE (ECHO 01 Oct 2024)Thu, 26 Sep 2024 10:31

  • Hurricane HELENE passed over the Yucatán channel on 25 September as a hurricane (category 1) and is moving in the Gulf of Mexico towards northern Florida. On 26 September at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 620 km south-west of Tampa city, Florida, southern USA with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h.
  • Following its passage close to the Yucatan peninsula, floods and damage have been recorded in the Cancun city area while multiple counties in Florida are under mandatory evacuations considering its future landfall over the state.
  • HELENE will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and cross the Florida Big Bend coast on 26 September. After landfall, HELENE is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on 27-28 September.
  • For the next 48 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over Belize, the Yucatán peninsula, Mexico, most of Cuba, and the whole of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, USA.
United States - Tropical cyclone HELENE, update (ECHO 02 Oct 2024)Fri, 27 Sep 2024 10:45

  • Tropical cyclone HELENE made landfall over the Florida Big Bend region on 27 September very early in the morning (around 3.10 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h (category 4 hurricane). On 27 September at 6.00 UTC its centre was located inland approximately 40 km north of Valdosta city, southern Georgia, with maximum sustained winds of 145 km/h (category 1 hurricane).
  • Its passage caused very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges. Media reports, as of 27 September, three fatalities, of which one in the Tampa city area, north-western Florida and two more across the far southern Georgia. In addition, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports 24 counties under evacuation orders in Florida.
  • HELENE is forecast to continue northward over Georgia and eastern Tennessee on 27-28 September, further weakening, as a tropical storm.
  • Over the next 48 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over most of Florida, southern Georgia, and most of the South and North Carolina. NOAA issued hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings over north-western Florida.
United States - Hurricane HELENE, update (ECHO 05 Oct 2024)Mon, 30 Sep 2024 10:40

  • Hurricane HELENE made landfall over the Florida Big Bend region on 27 September around 3.10 (UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h (category 4 hurricane). On 27-29 September it continued moving northward inland over Georgia, eastern Tennessee and central Kentucky, further weakening and dissipating.
  • Its passage caused very heavy rainfall, strong winds, storm surges and severe floods. Media reports, as of 30 September, 116 fatalities, of which 46 occurred across North Carolina, where the worst affected is the Buncombe county with 30 fatalities, 27 in South Carolina, 25 in Georgia, 13 in Florida, four in Tennessee and one more in Virginia.
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 29 September, a total of 2,033 evacuated people in 73 shelters across Florida (743 evacuated people), North Carolina (923), South Carolina (33), Georgia (234) and Tennessee (100). FEMA also reports ten counties still under evacuation orders in Florida, 11 in North Carolina and one in Georgia.
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall is still forecast over eastern USA, from Florida north to Pennsylvania and over Tennessee and Kentucky.
United States - Hurricane HELENE, update (ECHO 07 Oct 2024)Wed, 02 Oct 2024 12:13

  • After its landfall as a category 4 hurricane (with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h) over the Florida Big Bend region on 27 September around 3.10 (UTC), HELENE continued northward inland 27-29 September, further weakening and dissipating. Its passage caused very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges that resulted in severe floods and several strong wind-related incidents across northern Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, central Kentucky and southern Virginia.
  • Media reports, as of 2 October, 162 fatalities, of which 73 across North Carolina, where the worst affected is the Buncombe County with 57 fatalities, 36 in South Carolina, 25 in Georgia, 17 in Florida, nine in Tennessee and two fatalities in Virginia.
  • FEMA reports, as of 1 October, a total of 2,397 still evacuated people in 68 shelters across Florida le in 16 shelters), North Carolina (1,163 in 25 shelters), South Carolina (142 in ten shelters), Georgia (520 in nine shelters) and Tennessee (63 in eight shelters).
  • Over the next 24 hours, more rainfall is still forecast over central-eastern and north-eastern USA and most of Florida.
United States - Hurricane HELENE, update (ECHO 09 Oct 2024)Fri, 04 Oct 2024 10:41

  • Hurricane HELENE made landfall as a category 4 (with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h) over Florida on 27 September in the morning (UTC) and continued moving northward inland until 29 September, weakening and dissipating. Its passage resulted in heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges that caused severe floods and severe weather-related incidents.
  • According to media, as of 4 October, at least 204 people died across six states, including 98 in North Carolina, and across Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee and Virginia. Central Kentucky was also affected but no fatalities were reported. Hundreds of people are still missing and more than one million people have been affected by power outages.
  • Search and rescue operations are still ongoing.
  • On 4-5 October, more rainfall is still forecast over southern and south-eastern United States.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),