Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for HELENE-24
in United States, Mexico, Belize

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 272035
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Helene has been producing catastrophic flooding over portions of
the southeast U.S. and southern Appalachians, and the associated
heavy rains are shifting westward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that
Helene has completed extratropical transition, and the initial
intensity is set at 30 kt.

The cyclone is moving to the north-northwest at 15 kt. A slowdown
is expected tonight, and the cyclone is forecast to stall over the
Tennessee Valley this weekend, likely resulting in continued and
prolonged rainfall.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Helene. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic, catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, including numerous major landslides, will continue across
portions of the southern Appalachians through this evening, followed
by gradual improvement tonight and into Saturday. Widespread
serious river flooding is ongoing, some of which will be major to
record breaking.

2. There is a possibility of long-duration power outages in
portions of the southeast U.S. If you use a generator, be sure it
is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

3. Use caution after the system passes as deadly hazards remain
including downed power lines and flooded areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 37.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/0600Z 37.9N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 28/1800Z 37.7N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0600Z 37.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1800Z 37.3N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 272034
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 84.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.9N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.7N 87.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.5N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.3N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 85.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE STILL PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene
was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 85.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 17
mph (28 km/h). A slowdown in forward speed is expected, and the
system is forecast to stall over the Tennessee Valley late tonight
and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Over portions of the central and southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches leading to widespread total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12
inches, with isolated totals exceeding 20 inches. This rainfall will
result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, along with record level river flooding in many
instances. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep
terrain across the southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall is expected across portions of the Ohio Valley through
Sunday evening.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
evening over southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Helene. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE STILL PRODUCING HISTORIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 84.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Helene
was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A slowdown
in forward speed is expected, and the depression is forecast to
stall over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected, and
Helene is forecast to become extratropical later this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede along the Florida
Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast U.S. coast throughout the
day.

WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm-force are still occurring in portions
of the Appalachians and off the South Carolina coast, but they
should subside by this evening.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Central and Southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches leading to total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with
isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will result in
catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous
significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the
Southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today across eastern South
Carolina, central and eastern North Carolina, and southern Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 271436
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Helene has been racing northward and the low-level center is now
located over the southern Appalachians. Strong bands of heavy rain
and very gusty winds continue off and along the South Carolina
coast. In addition, wind gusts to around hurricane force have been
occurring this morning in portions of northeastern Georgia and the
western portions of the Carolinas, especially in areas of higher
terrain. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, and these sustained
winds are likely occurring off the south Carolina coast and over
the Appalachians. The main hazard is the very heavy rainfall
ongoing over portions of the southeastern U.S., which is
causing historic and life-threatening flooding.

Helene is expected to move slower to the northwest later today and
then stall over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend
as it merges with a mid- to upper-level low. This merger will also
lead to extratropical transition, which is expected to occur later
today. The expected slow motion could result in significant
flooding over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and over the southern
Appalachians through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic, catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, including numerous significant landslides, will continue
across portions of the Southern Appalachians through this evening.
Widespread significant river flooding is ongoing, some of which will
be major to record breaking.

2. Damaging wind gusts will continue over portions of Georgia, the
Carolinas, Tennessee, and Kentucky today, particularly over the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. There is a possibility of long-duration power outages in
portions of the southeast U.S. If you use a generator after the
storm, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from
doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 35.1N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 37.3N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 28/1200Z 37.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0000Z 37.5N 86.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1200Z 37.5N 86.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0000Z 37.6N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Rosado


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271436
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 83.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 510SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 83.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 37.3N 85.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.5N 86.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 86.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 37.6N 85.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 83.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271436
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE PRODUCING HISTORIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN ATLANTA, AND
MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF BRYSON CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NNE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast has been
discontinued.

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River northward to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 32 mph (52 km/h). A slowdown in
forward speed is expected soon, and the storm is forecast to stall
over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is
forecast to become extratropical later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km) east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 975 mb (28.80 inches). A weather station on
Sassafras Mountain reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h)
with a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). A coastal observation at Murrells
Inlet recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a
gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to receed along the Florida
Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast U.S. coast throughout the
day.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along much of the
South Carolina coast, and these conditions will continue for the
next several hours. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will also continue as far inland as the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Central and Southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches leading to total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with
isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will result in
catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous
significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the
Southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today across eastern South
Carolina, central and eastern North Carolina, and southern Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Rosado


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN ATLANTA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CLEMSON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida Gulf Coast from the
mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass has been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Warning along the east coast of Florida and
extreme southeastern Georgia from the Flagler/Volusia County Line
to Altamaha Sound has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida coast has been discontinued
south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Middle of Longboat Key, Florida
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound northward to Little River Inlet

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 83.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 30 mph (48 km/h). Helene is expected
to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley later
today and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is
expected to become a post-tropical low this afternoon or tonight.
However, damaging wind gusts will penetrate far inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the east of the center. An observation in Brasstown
Bald, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph (116 km/h).
An observation in Dewees Island, South Carolina, recently reported
a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 62 mph (100
km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...5-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-6 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along much of the
Georgia and South Carolina coasts, and these conditions will
continue for the next several hours. Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will also continue as far inland as the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
and record river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are
expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of eastern
Georgia, and through this afternoon over the Carolinas and southern
Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Harrigan


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The eye of Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, just after the
last advisory was issued. Since then, the center has crossed the
Florida Big Bend region and is currently located over east central
Georgia. Surface observations have shown steady weakening since
landfall, and the maximum winds have decreased to a possibly
generous 60 kt. During the last couple of hours, the radar
signature of the cyclone has degraded, and based on this the hourly
Tropical Cyclone Updates will be discontinued.

The initial motion is now northward or 360/26. Helen should turn
northwestward later today as it starts to interact with a mid- to
upper-level baroclinic low to its northwest. After that, the
cyclone should considerably slow its forward motion and make a
cyclonic loop as it gets absorbed into the low. The new forecast
track follows the general trend of the large-scale dynamical models.

Helene should continue to weaken, and simulated satellite imagery
suggests it should lose its convection later today, the new
intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to weaken and become
post-tropical in about 12 h, followed by transition to an
extratropical cyclone as it merges with the baroclinic low. The
remnant extratropical low is expected to dissipate by 72 h.

Although the system will weaken as it moves over land, the fast
forward speed of Helene during the next 12 hours or so will result
in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, particularly over northern Georgia,
including strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The storm surge along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast and
other portions of the west coast of Florida should subside today.

2. Damaging wind gusts will continue to penetrate well inland over
portions of Georgia and the Carolinas today, particularly over the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these
areas should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power
outages. If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is
placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding is likely, some of which will
be major to record breaking.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 32.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 27/1800Z 36.4N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 36.9N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/1800Z 36.7N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/0600Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/1800Z 36.9N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND
OVER GEORGIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued
along the Florida east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county
line, and along the Florida west coast south of the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

The Hurricane Warning for the Florida coast from the mouth of the
Suwannee Rover to Mexico Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida
Gulf coast west of Indian Pass.

The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida coast has been discontinued
west of Indian Pass and south of Bonita Beach.

The Hurricane Watch for the Florida West coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Bonita Beach
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* The Flagler/Volusia county line northward to Little River Inlet

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 30 mph (48 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected this morning, taking the center over central and
northeastern Georgia. After that, Helene is expected to turn
northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley later today
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is
expected to become a post-tropical low this afternoon or tonight.
However, the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the east of the center. The Marine Corp Air Station at
Beaufort, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 75 mph
(120 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 968
mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...5-10 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-6 ft
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring from northern Florida
through eastern Georgia into southern South Carolina, and these
conditions will continue spreading northward across the tropical
storm warning areas in the Southeastern U.S. through today.
Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate
as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
and record river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are
expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of eastern
Georgia, and through this afternoon over the Carolinas and southern
Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.0W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 380SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.0W AT 27/0900Z...INLAND
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 83.3W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.4N 84.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.9N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.7N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.7N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.9N 86.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270807
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH GEORGIA...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene continues continues to move inland over central Georgia and
is producing hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall. This is an
dangerous and life-threatening situation. Persons should not leave
their shelters and remain in place, staying away from windows and
have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates.

A University of Georgia weather station in Vidalia, Georgia
recently reported a wind gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). An ASOS station
at The Savannah International Airport in Georgia recently reported
a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph
(122 km/h).

This is the last hourly position update on Helene.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270704
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
300 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH GEORGIA...
...300 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene continues to produce hurricane force winds that are moving
further into Georgia. This is an dangerous and life-threatening
situation. Persons should not leave their shelters and remain in
place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions.
When in the eye, people are reminded to not venture out in the
relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly when
the center passes.

An ASOS station at Alma Bacon County Airport in Georgia recently
reported a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h). Another weather station
in Douglas, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 92 mph
(148 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 83.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 55 MI...115 KM SSE OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270556
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
VALDOSTA GEORGIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 83.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM N OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...42 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida
Keys, including the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 83.3 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (42 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, taking the center over central and
northern Georgia this morning. After that, Helene is expected to
turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley later
today and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 90 mph
(145 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but
the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km), mainly to the east of the center. A automated
station at Grassy Pond, Georgia, just south of Valdosta, recently
reported a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h). On the Atlantic
coast of Georgia, Savannah International Airport recently reported
a wind gust of 75 mph (120 km/h.)

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the
Valdosta area is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located on Cedar Key
recently reported a water level of 9.30 feet above mean higher high
water.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area. When the eye passes over, people are reminded to not
venture out into the relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase
very quickly when the eye passes. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring from southern Florida to southeastern Georgia, and these
conditions will continue spreading northward across the tropical
storm warning areas in the Southeastern U.S. through today.
Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate
as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes continues tonight through
this morning over parts of north/central Florida, Georgia, South
Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado risk will
persist today across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
Next Tropical Cyclone Update at 300 and 400 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270501
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE HELENE NOW MOVING
INTO GEORGIA AND ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene continues to produce catastrophic winds that are now pushing
into southern Georgia. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Persons should not leave their shelters
and remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening
conditions. When in the eye, people are reminded to not venture out
in the relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly
when the eye passes.

A WeatherSTEM site in southern Lowndes County in Georgia recently
reported a wind gust to 88 mph (142 km/h). Another Weather Stem
site in Kinderlou, Georgia recently reported a minimum pressure of
952.2 mb (28.11 inches) in the eye of Helene.

A USGS tide gauge at Steinhatchee, Florida earlier reported a water
level 9.6 feet above mean higher high water, which is an
approximation of inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...42 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270401
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1200 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HELENE MOVING QUICKLY
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene continues to produce catastrophic winds that are pushing
further inland over the Florida Big Bend and Florida Panhandle and
will soon be entering southeastern Georgia. This is an extremely
dangerous and life-threatening situation. Persons should not leave
their shelters and remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. When in the eye, people are reminded
to not venture out in the relative calm, as hazardous winds will
increase very quickly when the eye passes.

An ASOS station at the Perry-Foley Airport recently reported a
sustained wind of 55 mph (88 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 mph (159
km/h) while also reporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb (27.97
inches).

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key is reporting a
water level 8.68 feet above mean higher high water, which is an
approximation of inundation in that area.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270319
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall
as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about
11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla
River. This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry,
Florida. Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and
the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1110 PM EDT...0310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 83.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi/Brown/Pasch/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The hurricane is about to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region. Timely observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that Helene continued to strengthen rapidly
to Category 4 status before it approached the coast, with the
central pressure falling at about 3 mb per hour since this
afternoon. Peak 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft were
136 kt, corresponding to an intensity of about 120 kt, which might
be a bit conservative. Radar and satellite images show numerous
mesocyclones rotating around the eyewall.

The large hurricane continues moving rapidly north-northeastward
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 015/21 kt. A
generally northward track is expected overnight, taking the center
from southern to northern Georgia through early Friday morning.
Later on Friday and Saturday, Helene should slow down considerably
while it interacts with a mid-level low to its northwest and west.
The weakening system is likely to become nearly stationary in 48-60
hours. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model
consensus.

Although the system will weaken as it moves over land, the fast
forward speed of Helene during the next 12 hours or so will result
in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, particularly over Georgia, including
strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the
official forecast while Helene is inland.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is occurring along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

2. Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are occurring near the coast
within the eyewall of Helene and will spread inland over portions
of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

3. Damaging wind gusts will penetrate well inland over portions of
Georgia and the Carolinas tonight, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these areas
should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power
outages. If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is
placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

4. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river
flooding are likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.9N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 36.9N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/1200Z 36.8N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/0000Z 36.9N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/1200Z 37.1N 86.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270258
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...
...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.9 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected overnight, taking the center over
Georgia. The center of the hurricane should make landfall
very soon in the Big Bend region of Florida. After landfall,
Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Helene is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected
after Helene moves inland, but the fast forward speed will allow
strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well
inland across the southeastern United States, including over the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 84
mph (135 km/h) was recently reported at Cedar Key, Florida. A
gust of 83 mph (134 km/h) was recently reported at Steinhatchee,
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located on Cedar Key
recently reported a water level of 7.33 feet above mean higher high
water.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area. When the eye passes over, people are reminded to not
venture out into the relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase
very quickly when the eye passes. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in southern and central Florida, and these conditions will
continue spreading northward across the tropical storm warning
areas in the Southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong,
damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far
inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes continues tonight through
early Friday morning over parts of north/central Florida, Georgia,
South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado risk will
persist Friday across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270257
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 340SE 420SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...220NE 260SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.9N 86.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.8N 87.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 86.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.1N 86.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270159
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HELENE BEGINNING TO
MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST OF THE BIG BEND...
...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene is producing catastrophic winds that will be spreading
onshore in the Florida Big Bend region during the next few hours.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Persons should not leave their shelters and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions. When the eye
comes ashore, people are reminded to not venture out in the relative
calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly when the eye
passes.

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located on
Cedar Key recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h)
and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located at Clearwater Beach
recently reported a water level of 6.18 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A
National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key is reporting a water
level 5.76 feet above mean higher high water.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 84.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.72 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270056
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
900 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS ITS EYE APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located on
Cedar Key recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and
a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located at Clearwater Beach
recently reported a water level of 5.07 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262353
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE HELENE NEARING THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued fast
motion to the north-northeast is expected through landfall in the
Florida Big Bend in a few hours. After landfall, Helene is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee
Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Helene is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
before the center reaches the coast in a few hours. Weakening is
expected after Helene moves inland, but the fast forward speed will
allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well
inland across the southeastern United States, including over the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km). Albert Whitted airport in St. Petersburg, Florida
reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph
(122 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are beginning within the hurricane
warning area. When the eye comes ashore, people are reminded to not
venture out into the relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase
very quickly when the eye passes. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in southern and central Florida, and these conditions will
be spreading northward across the tropical storm warning areas in
the Southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes continues through
tonight over much of Florida, southeast Georgia, central and
southern South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado
risk will continue Friday across the Carolinas and southern
Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 262259
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HELENE HEADING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel near the entrance of Tampa
Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and
a wind gust of 71 mph (115 km/h).

Tropical storm conditions are approaching the coastline of
Florida's Big Bend. A Weatherflow station at St. George Island
recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 262218
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 262205 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Corrected for the maximum winds and forward motion

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 262200
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 262043
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene has rapidly intensified today while nearing landfall in the
Florida Big Bend. Doppler radar and aircraft data indicate that the
eyewall is now completely closed and the eye has become more
circular and is clearing out. The aircraft data also indicated
that the inner core has contracted significantly today while the
tropical-storm-force winds have expanded. Based on all of the data,
the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The latest minimum pressure
based on the aircraft data is around 951 mb. Tropical-storm-force
winds are occurring across portions of west-central and southwestern
Florida, and conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly in the
hurricane warning area during the next several hours. It should be
emphasized that Helene is at the upper bound of hurricanes in
terms of storm size and impacts are and will occur well away
from the center.

The large hurricane is now accelerating north-northeastward, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 025/20 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue, taking the core of the major
hurricane to the Florida Big Bend later this evening. After
landfall, a turn to the north over Georgia is expected late tonight
and early Friday, followed by a slowdown or a complete stall over
the Tennessee Valley late Friday and Saturday when Helene merges
with a mid- to upper-level low.

The hurricane has intensified by 30 kt since sunrise and given the
conducive environmental conditions and contracting inner core, it
seems likely that Helene will be at or very near category 4 strength
when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening.
The fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a
far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, including strong gusts over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a
higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast
while Helene is inland.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge will occur along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. If
you live in this area and were told to evacuate by local officials,
your opportunity to do so is almost over. There is also a danger
of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene and will spread inland over portions
of northern Florida and southern Georgia when Helene makes landfall
in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Persons in these
areas should be prepared to take shelter in the interior portion of
a well-built structure and remain sheltered until after hazardous
conditions pass. You may need to remain sheltered after the storm
due to downed trees and power lines, as well as flooding, in the
area.

3. Damaging wind gusts will penetrate well inland over portions of
Georgia and the Carolinas tonight, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these areas
should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power
outages. If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is
placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

4. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river
flooding are likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.9N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 31.5N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 35.8N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1800Z 37.1N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0600Z 37.1N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS AND CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued fast
motion to the north-northeast is expected through landfall in the
Florida Big Bend this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to
turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on
Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Helene is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected, and Helene will likely be an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane at landfall. Weakening is expected after Helene moves
inland, but the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging
winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km). A weather station at Venice Municipal Airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 69 mph
(111 km/h). Another observation near Venice Beach reported a
sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area this evening. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the
southern and central Florida, and these conditions are expected to
spread northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the
Southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes continues through
tonight over much of Florida, southeast Georgia, central and
southern South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado
risk will continue Friday across the Carolinas and southern
Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 262040
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 84.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 310SE 390SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 84.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 84.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.5N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.8N 85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 330SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.1N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.1N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 84.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 261955
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum pressure of Helene has decreased to 951 mb (28.08 inches).

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay
recently measured a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to
68 mph (109 km/h).

The Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport recently measured a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 261856
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa
Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 261825
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
225 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes
Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional
strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the
Florida Big Bend this evening.

SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the tropical storm warning
for the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A significant
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big
Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn
northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A weather station in Tarpon Point recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
occurring in the Florida Keys and portions of southern and
southwestern Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread
northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the
southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall
brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Hourly position and intensity information will be provided in
Tropical Cyclone Updates beginning at 300 PM EDT/200 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 261454
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is gaining strength as it approaches the Florida Big Bend. A
large eye has become apparent in satellite images, and that feature
has been gradually clearing out over the past few hours. Convective
banding is wrapping around the eye, and recent microwave images and
reports from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate than an eyewall is almost completely closed. The minimum
pressure has been dropping steadily to near 960 mb, and based on the
aircraft flight-level wind data, the initial intensity is estimated
to have increased to 90 kt. There have been several reports of
tropical-storm-force winds occurring in portions of South Florida
and the Florida Keys during the past few hours.

The large hurricane is picking up speed and has turned slightly to
the north-northeast. The latest initial motion is 025/12 kt. A
notably faster north-northeastward motion is expected through
landfall, which is expected to occur in the Florida Big Bend region
this evening. After Helene moves inland, it is forecast to track
over Georgia and then slow down or stall over the Tennessee Valley
when it merges with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system. Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Significant intensification is expected until Helene reaches the
coast since the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions will
remain conducive. The amount of strengthening will likely depend on
how much the inner core can contract and consolidate. The HWRF and
HMON models show significant strengthening to category 4 status,
while most of the other models are a little lower. The main message
is that Helene will likely make landfall as a large major hurricane
in the Florida Big Bend this evening, and all preparations in the
hurricane warning area should be rushed to completion.

It should also be re-emphasized that Helene is a very large
hurricane. In fact, comparing the system with previous hurricanes
in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at
the upper bound in terms of size. As a result, storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well
outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In
addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will
result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a
higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast
while Helene is inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region this evening. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion. Damaging and
life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will
penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern
Georgia later today and tonight where Hurricane Warnings are in
effect. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across
portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over
the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river
flooding are likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 25.5N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 36.4N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 36.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0000Z 36.3N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z 36.2N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24
hours. On the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the
Florida Big Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee
Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
already begun in the Florida Keys and portions of south
Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread northward
across the tropical storm warning areas in the southeastern U.S.
through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next couple of hours.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall
brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 261453
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 85.5W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 85.5W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 330SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.4N 86.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.3N 87.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 36.2N 87.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 85.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.9 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continued with a significant increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track,
Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow
down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89
km/h). An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained
winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb
(28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
already begun in the Florida Keys and portions of south
Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread northward
across the state and into Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 260852
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On
one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports
that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite
imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter,
with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring
about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the
outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the
available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt.

The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the
north-northeast, with the initial motion now 015/10. The hurricane
should accelerate north-northeastward during the next 24 h or so in
the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer
baroclinic trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley. This
motion should bring the center of Helene to the coast of the Florida
Big Bend region Thursday evening or early Friday morning. After
landfall, Helene should turn northward and northwestward around the
northeast and north side of the Tennessee Valley system. After 48
h, what is left of Helene should make a cyclonic loop as it merges
with the baroclinic system. The latest track guidance has nudged a
little to the northeast, especially near 36 h, and the portion of
the new forecast track over Georgia and Tennessee has been moved
a bit to the east.

Helene remains in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that is very conducive for strengthening,
with the system forecast to traverse the Loop Current while it
remains in a moist and low-shear environment. The main restraining
factor on intensification is the current concentric eyewall status.
All of the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening
until landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls
for Helen to become a major hurricane in about 12 h, and additional
intensification is expected in the ensuing 6 h period or so before
landfall. After landfall, Helene should weaken and undergo
extratropical transition as it merges with the baroclinic system
over the Tennessee Valley, and this is expected to be complete by
about 36 h. The remnant extratropical low is forecast to dissipate
after 72 h based on global model forecasts.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest
the possibility that the inner wind core may persist until the
center reaches northern Georgia. A higher-than-normal gust factor
is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region later today. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed this morning before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia later
today and tonight where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong
wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river
flooding are likely.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 24.2N 86.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 26.8N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 31.6N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/1800Z 36.1N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1800Z 36.3N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 260851
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 86.2W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 86.2W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 85.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.6N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 140SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.1N 84.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.3N 87.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.3N 86.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 86.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 260851
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continued with a significant increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track,
Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow
down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is
expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph
(103 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning
this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the
Florida Keys at this time, and they are expected to spread
northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 260556
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 86.5 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to
turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on
Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). The NOAA automated station at Sand Key, Florida
recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning
this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern
Florida this morning and will spread northward across the rest of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this morning over parts of
Florida. The risk for tornadoes will increase later today, expanding
northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 260255
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Satellite images show that Helene has a well-organized appearance,
with numerous convective banding features. A ragged-looking eye
feature is also apparent. However, reports from both Air Force and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system suggest
that the it lacks a well-defined inner core with a somewhat broad
maximum wind field for now. The central pressure has dropped a
little to around 972 mb. Given the slowly falling central
pressure, the intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory.
Helene's structure and intensity will continue to be closely
monitored by Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight and Thursday.

The hurricane continues moving northward with an estimated initial
motion of 360/08 kt. For the next couple of days, the steering
scenario for this system remains basically unchanged from the
earlier advisory. The flow between a mid-tropospheric trough over
the east-central United States and a ridge over the western
Atlantic should result in Helene accelerating northward to
north-northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion
will bring the center of Helene to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
coast in about 24 hours. The official track forecast through
landfall is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and remains
close to the corrected consensus guidance. After landfall, the
trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone becomes a cutoff
low, and Helene should turn leftward as it rotates around the low.
In 3-4 days, the system should become a shallow extratropical
cyclone within weaker steering currents.

Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for
strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current,
which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with
fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower-
tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid
intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues
to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It
should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models
show even more intensification than indicated here.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor is
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the
southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally
catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and
northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are
likely.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 260254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 86.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the
Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee
Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in southern Florida tonight and will spread northward across the
rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of Florida.
The risk for tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding
northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight and Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 260253
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 86.6W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......210NE 300SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 86.6W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 86.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 252344
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the
Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee
Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in southern Florida tonight and will spread northward across the
rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday night.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba this evening.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the southeastern U.S. into the southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Landslides are possible in steep terrain across the
southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight and Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 252107 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Corrected to remove Storm Surge Watch area in the summary

...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been
upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little
River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall,
Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later this evening and will spread
northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
through Thursday night.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba this evening.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Landslides are possible in steep terrain across the
southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 252056
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and
has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western
Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is
set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 81 kt.

Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to
accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next
24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the
Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the
system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west
and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee
Valley.

The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while
Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or
less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24
hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In
addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low
vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the
Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to
this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern
Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic
flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern
Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.

4. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this
evening where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane
conditions are possible this evening within the Hurricane Watch
area. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 252055
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 86.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......210NE 300SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 86.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 86.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 252056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been
upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little
River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall,
Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later this evening and will spread
northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
through Thursday night.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba this evening.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Landslides are possible in steep terrain across the
southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 251751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast
by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow
down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United
States Friday and Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to
be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast
Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km). A commercial fishing vessel located near Isla
Mujeres, Mexico, recently reported a wind of 63 mph (102 km/h).

Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure has been
relatively steady during the past few hours and is estimated to be
980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward
across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. A 24-hour
rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in
Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological
Service of Cuba.

Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas
of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of
steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 251457
TCDAT4

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Helene, with each plane recently measuring peak
flight-level winds of 81 kt and 78 kt, respectively. Helene has
therefore become a hurricane with an estimated intensity of 70 kt.
Dropsonde data also indicate that the pressure has fallen to about
979 mb. Radar data from Mexico and Cuba, as well as reconnaissance
reports, indicate that Helene has formed a partial, elliptical
eyewall that is open on the east side.

Helene has turned north-northwestward (330/9 kt) and is expected to
turn northward and north-northeastward later today and tonight,
bringing the center to the coast of the Florida Big Bend Thursday
evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to interact with a
deep-layer trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing back
to the northwest and stall near the Tennessee Valley late Friday
into the weekend. The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is generally just an update of the previous
prediction. It is still too soon at this point to be overly focused
on an exact landfall location and time, since NHC track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 nm at the 36-hour forecast time.

Helene is expected to move through/over an environment of
relatively low shear, strong upper-level divergence, and sea
surface temperatures of 29-31 degrees Celsius, all of which should
foster additional strengthening. Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices indicate a high chance of RI during the next 24 hours, and
as a result the NHC intensity forecast shows Helene becoming a
major hurricane by Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward
adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in
subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than
forecast. Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major
hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a
result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center and outside the forecast cone,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed
while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland
penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United
States after landfall, including strong gusts over higher terrain
of the southern Appalachians.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today where
Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring over portions of western Cuba within the
Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible
today within the Hurricane Watch area.

2. Due to the large size of Helene, there is a danger of
life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation of
greater than 10 ft is expected along the Florida Big Bend coast.
Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local
officials and evacuate if told to do so.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected across portions
of northern Florida and southern Georgia where the core of Helene
moves inland. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within these areas on Thursday. Because of
Helene’s expected fast forward speed, damaging and life-threatening
wind gusts, are expected to penetrate well inland over portions of
the southeastern United States, including in the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.

4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
Considerable and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding is expected across portions of northwestern and northern
Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Upper
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of
landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 86.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 251457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina to South Santee River, and
westward along the Florida Gulf coast to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mexico Beach to Indian
Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the coast of South
Carolina north of South Santee River to Little River Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 86.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center
of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big
Bend coast by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected
to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern
United States Friday and Saturday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it
reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow
strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well
inland across the southeastern United States, including over the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde is 979 mb (28.91
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward
across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas
of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of
steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 251456
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 86.3W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......210NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 86.3W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 330SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 251153
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* All of the Florida Keys
* The Florida west coast from Flamingo to Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* The Florida east coast from Flamingo northward to Altamaha Sound,
Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast north of Altamaha Sound to the
South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion
should continue through this morning, followed by a general
northward motion beginning later today and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is
expected to become a hurricane later today. The storm is forecast
to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a
major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding.
Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern
Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico during the next several hours, with tropical storm
conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are possible for the western portion of Cuba later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in Cuba
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and spreading northward
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday and Thursday night.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of
the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of
tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and
into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250913 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Corrected Helen to Helene

Helene has strengthened some since the last advisory. Reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the central pressure has fallen to 985 mb, and that the maximum
850 mb flight-level were 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A
dropsonde in the northwest quadrant reported a splash wind of 59
kt, but the boundary-layer average suggested sustained winds closer
to 45 kt. Based on these data and increasing satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Despite
the increased intensity, the aircraft data, along with radar data
from Mexico and Cuba, show that Helene has not yet formed a
well-defined inner core.

The initial motion is 325/8 kt. Helene should turn northward
during the next 12 h or so on the western side of a mid-level
ridge, and then it should accelerate northward to
north-northeastward as it become embedded in the deep-layer flow
between the ridge and a mid-latitude trough/developing cut-off low
over the Mississippi valley. This motion should bring the center
near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning,
then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday to a
landfall along the northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico late
Thursday or Thursday night. After landfall, Helene should curve
cyclonically around the cut-off low until it dissipates. The new
forecast track is little changed from the previous track.

Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. All
guidance forecasts steady to rapid intensification, including the
RI indices associated with the SHIPS model. The latest forecast
calls for a 105 kt intensity by 36 h, and this could be
conservative as some of the guidance is stronger. After landfall,
Helene is forecast to weaken and become post-tropical as it gets
tangled up in the baroclinic system over the southeastern United
States.

Helene's wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size in the
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next several hours, where a Hurricane Warning
is in effect.

2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.

4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, the Southern
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley beginning today through
Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern
Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely,
and isolated major river flooding is possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.7N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/1800Z 35.9N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helen has strengthened some since the last advisory. Reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the central pressure has fallen to 985 mb, and that the maximum
850 mb flight-level were 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A
dropsonde in the northwest quadrant reported a splash wind of 59
kt, but the boundary-layer average suggested sustained winds closer
to 45 kt. Based on these data and increasing satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Despite
the increased intensity, the aircraft data, along with radar data
from Mexico and Cuba, show that Helen has not yet formed a
well-defined inner core.

The initial motion is 325/8 kt. Helen should turn northward during
the next 12 h or so on the western side of a mid-level ridge, and
then it should accelerate northward to north-northeastward as it
become embedded in the deep-layer flow between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough/developing cut-off low over the Mississippi
valley. This motion should bring the center near the northeastern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday to a landfall along the
northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Thursday
night. After landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around the
cut-off low until it dissipates. The new forecast track is little
changed from the previous track.

Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. All
guidance forecasts steady to rapid intensification, including the
RI indices associated with the SHIPS model. The latest forecast
calls for a 105 kt intensity by 36 h, and this could be
conservative as some of the guidance is stronger. After landfall,
Helen is forecast to weaken and become post-tropical as it gets
tangled up in the baroclinic system over the southeastern United
States.

Helene's wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size in the
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next several hours, where a Hurricane Warning
is in effect.

2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.

4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, the Southern
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley beginning today through
Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern
Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely,
and isolated major river flooding is possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.7N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/1800Z 35.9N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 250853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 86.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.0N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.9N 85.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 86.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Upper Florida
Keys from the Channel 5 Bridge to Ocean Reef and for the southern
Florida Peninsula east of Flamingo to the Palm Beach/Martin County
line.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the northeast coast
of Florida north of the Flagler/Volusia line to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the South Carolina
coast north of the Savannah River to the South Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* All of the Florida Keys
* The Florida west coast from Flamingo to Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* The Florida east coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of
the St. Mary's River
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Georgia and South Carolina coast north of the mouth
of the St. Mary's River to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion
should continue through this morning, followed by a general
northward motion beginning later today and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become
a hurricane later today. The storm is forecast to rapidly
strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major
hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy weather station at Isla Contoy
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind
gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding.
Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern
Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico during the next several hours, with tropical storm
conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are possible for the western portion of Cuba later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in Cuba
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and spreading northward
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday and Thursday night.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of
the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of
tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and
into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250553
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...CENTER OF HELENE APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 85.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia
County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 85.9 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion
should continue through this morning, followed by a general
northward motion beginning later today and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a
hurricane later today. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph (55 to 65 km/h) are
being reported from the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun
and Cozumel.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding.
Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern
Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico later today. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm
warning area in Florida later today and spread northward through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of
the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of
tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and
into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250256
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.

Although the storm has been wobbling over the past few hours,
center fixes from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
generally west-northwestward motion at around 300/9 kt. Helene
should turn northwestward soon as a high pressure area over Florida
shifts eastward, with the tropical cyclone center passing near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a
mid-tropospheric trough is digging over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Helene to
turn northward with an increase in forward speed during the next day
or so. An accelerating northward to north-northeastward motion over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico should take the system to the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast in about 48 hours. After
landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around a mid-level low
over the south-central United States. The official forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is on top of the latest corrected
consensus track guidance.

Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. Thus,
significant strengthening is anticipated before landfall on the
northeast Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows
steady to rapid intensification (RI) of 25 kt for the next 24 hours
and 30 kt for the 24- to 48-hour forecast interval. This is in
general agreement with the SHIPS RI indices.

Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC
forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast
cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward
speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are
expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in
those areas should follow advice given by local officials and
evacuate if told to do so.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.

4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the
Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday
through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the
southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding
is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin
County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia
County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a
general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing
through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will
pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later
tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida
late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a
hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast
to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a
major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding.
Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern
Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread
northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Wednesday night over parts of
the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of
tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and
into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 250254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.5W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.5W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 85.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a
general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing
through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will
pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is
expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm is forecast
to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a
major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain
in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread
northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242226 CCB
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Corrected summary of watches and warnings in effect

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general
northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm
is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain
in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread
northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242125 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Corrected summary of watches and warnings in effect

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general
northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm
is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain
in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread
northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 242058
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Deep convection is gradually filling in within Helene's
circulation, and the well-defined center that formed earlier this
morning is now obscured by cloudiness and showers. Data from NOAA
buoy indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 995 mb, and
the initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt. NOAA and
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Helene
this evening to provide more information about the storm's intensity
and structure.

With the center formation this morning, Helene has taken a
short-term jog to the west-northwest (300/10 kt). The storm is
expected to turn northwestward by tonight and then northward on
Wednesday as high pressure over Florida shifts eastward, and a
deep-layer trough digs southward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted westward during the first
24 hours to account for the recent motion, and Helene's center
could get very close to the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula Wednesday morning. After that time, however, the NHC
track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous
prediction, except for being a little bit slower based on the
latest guidance. Helene is expected to accelerate while it moves
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the
Florida Gulf coast.

Warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and strong
upper-level divergence are likely to foster Helene's strengthening
while it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS/LGEM models, as
well as the regional hurricane models, continue to show Helene
reaching major hurricane intensity while over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and that continues to be shown in the NHC forecast. Helene
could maintain that level of intensity until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida.

Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast
size. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of
major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well
away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on
the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses
the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.

4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean
with potentially significant flooding and mudslides across western
Cuba. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of
landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 19.7N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 242057
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 84.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general
northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm
is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain
in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread
northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grand Cayman.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the
U.S. later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 84.5 West. Helene has
been wobbling a bit now that a well-defined has just recently
formed, but the longer-term motion is toward the west-northwest
near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected
later today. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far
northwestern Caribbean Sea to near the northeastern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through tonight, and then move across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially
reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a
hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated
after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This
rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding
likely, and isolated major river flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in the Cuba and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on
Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida
Keys beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 241459
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also
indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very
recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite
imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based
on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm
Helene at this time.

Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt)
as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over
Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide
eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should
cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late
Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future.

Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is
beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show
relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In
addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system
will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence.
Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity
around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be some increase in shear around the time the system
reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only
weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system
could reach the coast as a major hurricane.

Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with
hurricane conditions possible.

2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from
life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds
continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in
effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides
across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally
considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida,
with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding
will be possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241458
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the
U.S. later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A
northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed
is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean
Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast
of Florida late Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation,
and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued
strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could
become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This
rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding
likely, and isolated major river flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Mexico today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower
Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch
area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 241457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 84.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241151
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.2 North, longitude 83.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in
southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida
Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 240859
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized.
A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad
circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes
from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level
circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept
at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.

The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt.
This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves
around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.
The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as
the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into
the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering
pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the
model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower,
with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this
remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall
change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA
G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future
track refinements.

Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the
models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level
low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and
tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and
warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of
the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to
the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that
this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.

Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches
and warnings are likely later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before
it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the
potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by
local officials.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240858
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida
southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including
Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from
north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in
southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida
Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 240858
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240549
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 82.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-3 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later
today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 240239
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that there has been little change in
the organization of the system since earlier today. Most of the
deep convection is over the eastern part of the broad circulation.
Animation of proxy-vis GOES images, and radar observations from
Grand Cayman Weather Service suggest that the disturbance still
does not have a well-defined center of circulation, so the system is
kept as a potential tropical cyclone for the time being. The
advisory intensity is held at 30 kt which is in agreement with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the area in a few hours to provide a
better description of the system's structure along with an updated
intensity estimate.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330/5 kt. During
the next day or so, the disturbance is expected to turn
northwestward along the southern and southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure area. Then, the high is expected to shift
eastward while a mid-level trough drops into the central United
States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the
system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast
through Thursday. There is good agreement in the track guidance, and
the official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical consensus
model, HCCA, prediction. This is also very similar to the previous
NHC forecast.

An upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula has been
imparting some southwesterly vertical wind shear over the
disturbance. This has probably caused a temporary disruption in
development. Dynamical guidance shows this low weakening with time,
resulting in a reduction of shear in an environment that is
otherwise very conducive for intensification. The system is
projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content,
which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast
period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and
the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that
the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving
inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane
strength at landfall.

It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in
size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly
to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed
while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland
penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United
States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane
Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued
for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 18.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240238
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of
Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of
Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 18.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a
faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through
Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-3 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 240238
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 220SE 140SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 82.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232347
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grand Cayman.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.3 North, longitude 82.3 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster
northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some
of which could be considerable.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-3 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 232053
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are
gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the
convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the
circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the
disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds
noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The
scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on
the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the
initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.

The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but
the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day
or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing
between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late
Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should
cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.

The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to
diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to
become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a
very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core,
these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The
NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on
Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI
guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very
likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system
reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity
forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional
hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.

Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses
the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the
system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the
coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that
area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY
TORTUGAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 82.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the
Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast, should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster
northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some
of which could be considerable.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-3 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 232051
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 82.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 82.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 82.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
and urban flooding and minor river flooding.

Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on
Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash
and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by
early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning areas beginning on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 231500
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.

While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast,
including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west
coast should monitor the progress of this system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane
when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and
northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to
specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in
these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231459
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF MEXICO AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a
Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster
northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
and urban flooding and minor river flooding.

Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on
Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash
and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by
early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning areas beginning on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 231458
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 81.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART