Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000814
Name GRACE-21
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
From - To 13 Aug - 21 Aug
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 7.7 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h Category 3
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (19 Aug 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 37 km/h 1 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 205 km/h 1.8 m 735 mm 2.5
GFS 137 km/h 1.1 m 350 mm 0.5
ECMWF 119 km/h 1.1 m 841 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Dominian Republic, Haiti - Tropical Depression GRACE (ECHO 16 Aug 2021)Mon, 16 Aug 2021 16:17

  • Tropical Depression GRACE is moving west-northwest in the Caribbean Sea, towards southern Hispaniola Island. On 16 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was about 90 km south of Isla Saona (Dominican Republic) and 190 km south-east of Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic), with maximum sustained winds of 56 km/h.
  • GRACE will first reach the south-western coast of the Dominican Republic, moving towards southern Haiti, passing close to Port-au-Prince, with maximum sustained winds up to 55 km/h. GRACE over southern Haiti could affect several communes already impacted by the recent earthquake, hampering the humanitarian response.
  • A tropical storm watch is in effect for coastal areas of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are forecast over the Dominican Republic and Haiti on 16-17 August. 
Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Mexico - Tropical Cyclone GRACE (ECHO 17 Aug 2021)Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:56

  • Tropical Cyclone GRACE is crossing western Tiburon Peninsula (southern Haiti), moving west-northwest. On 17 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was about 45 km southwest of Port-à-Piment (southern Haiti), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (tropical storm).
  • GRACE will continue to move close to the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica on 17 August afternoon. After that, it will approach the Cayman Islands on 18 August, and then it could reach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico on 18-19 August.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey, and for the Cayman Islands. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are forecast over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands on 17-18 August.
Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Mexico - Tropical Cyclone GRACE, update (ECHO 18 Aug 2021)Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:12

  • Tropical Cyclone GRACE crossed Jamaica on 17 August moving west-northwest over the Caribbean. On 18 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was 137 km south-east of the southern coast of Grand Cayman Island, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (tropical storm).
  • 108 people were evacuated in the Dominican Republic, more than 3,625 are affected and five houses have been destroyed. There have been widespread floods across southern Haiti.
  • GRACE will pass close to the Cayman Islands on 18 August, before strengthening into a Category 1 Hurricane, making landfall over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on the morning of 19 August.
  • Heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico). A hurricane warning is in effect for Yucatan Peninsula from Cancun to Punta Herrero. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, the southern coast of the Cuban provinces, Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to Dzilam, from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya. 
Mexico - Tropical Cyclone GRACE update (ECHO 19 Aug 2021)Thu, 19 Aug 2021 16:57

  • After passing south of Cayman Islands, tropical cyclone GRACE has intensified and is moving over the north-western Caribbean Sea, towards Mexico. On 19 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located about 145 km south-east of Isla de Cozumel and about 190 km east of the northern coast of Quintana Roo State (Yucatan Peninsula, south-eastern Mexico), with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (Category 1 hurricane).
  • GRACE is forecast to make landfall in the morning of 19 August in northern Quintana Roo. Precautionary evacuations have taken place across Cozumel and Quintana Roo. GRACE is then expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula and reach the Gulf of Mexico.
  • A hurricane warning is in effect for northern Quintana Roo, including Cozumel. A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal areas from northern Quintana Roo to Campeche, including Yucatan, and for coastal areas of central and southern Quintana Roo.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula, while storm surge could affect the coastal areas.
Mexico - Tropical cyclone GRACE, update (ECHO 20 Aug 2021)Fri, 20 Aug 2021 13:01

  • Tropical cyclone GRACE made landfall over the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula (eastern Mexico) on 19 August and continued moving west over the southern Gulf of Mexico. On 20 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located offshore about 310 km west of Merida City (Yucatan State), with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (tropical storm).
  • Media report power outages and widespread damage to roads and infrastructure across several cities of Yucatan Peninsula particularly in Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel, Puerto Aventura and Tulum.
  • Grace is forecast to strengthen and move across the south-western Gulf of Mexico on 20 August, before making landfall over the coast of Veracruz State (central-eastern Mexico) on 20 August evening as a hurricane (category 1).
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are expected over central-eastern Mexico. 
Mexico - Tropical Cyclone GRACE, update (ECHO 23 Aug 2021)Mon, 23 Aug 2021 16:33

  • Tropical Cyclone GRACE made landfall over the eastern coast of Veracruz on 21 August as a Hurricane (category 3), causing floods and landslides, and leading to casualties and damage.
  • According to media reports, at least eight people have died, most of them in Xalapa City (Veracruz State). Power cuts and widespread damage due to floods and strong winds were reported across 22 municipalities of Veracruz and over the neighbouring State of Tamaulipas.
  • For the next 24 hours, heavy rain is forecast over most parts of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacán, Puebla, Tabasco, Campeche, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Sonora and Yucatán. Strong winds are expected across the States of Chiapas, Chihuahua, Colima, Jalisco, Michoacán, Oaxaca, Puebla, Sinaloa and Veracruz.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Tropical system could bring 'dangerous impacts' to Louisiana coast, hu.. 8/25/2021 8:32:00 PM.

Storm surge, wind and heavy rainfall are possible. Published Aug 25, 2021 at 1:14 pm | Updated Aug 25, 2021 at 1:28 pm; Published Aug 25, 2021 at 1:14 pm | Updated Aug 25, 2021 at 1:28 pm; A tropical system heading for the Gulf of Mex
...(more)
Hurricane Grace a bane to some Veracruz farmers, a boon to others 8/25/2021 6:32:00 PM.

08/25/2021. Source: Mexico Daily News. Hurricane Grace was both friend and foe to farmers in Veracruz, which bore the brunt of the storm’s wrath when it carved a destructive westward path across Mexico on Saturday. In the municipality of Pa
...(more)
Meteo Cronaca DIRETTA: MESSICO, l'URAGANO GRACE di categoria 3 porta D.. 8/25/2021 5:04:00 PM.

Meteo Cronaca DIRETTA: MESSICO, l'URAGANO GRACE di categoria 3 porta DISTRUZIONE a VERACRUZ. Il VIDEO. Danni in Messico a causa del passaggio dell'uragano Grace; secondo fonti locali vi sarebbero anche 8 vittime. Il video qui sopra.
Tropical depression likely in Gulf of Mexico this weekend, hurricane f.. 8/25/2021 4:01:00 PM.

A tropical system heading for the Gulf of Mexico has an 80% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, said Wednesday. It's too early to tell if it could be a threat to Louisiana, but some of the long-range forecasting models
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Analytical products

Mw 7.2 Earthquake and Tsunami in Haiti and Tropical Cyclone Grace - Situation Update #1

30/Aug/2021 09:53 UTC

The current report is a Situation Update, documenting the changes to the crisis situation that have been recorded since the previous Flash Report. In particular the report describs the situation just after the passage of GRACE Tropical Cyclone and his possible impact on the recovery actions

M7.2 Haiti EQ JRC Situation Report

15/Aug/2021 19:16 UTC

On August 14th 2021, 12:29 UTC (08:29 local time), a M 7.2 earthquake occurred in the Hispaniola island with an epicentre approximately 125 kilometres west of Port-au-Prince, 2 13 km south east of Petit Trou de Nippes (Nippes Department). Several aftershocks are occurring, worsening the situation. The population of the three most affected departments (Nippes, Grand'Anse and Sud) represents around 16% of the country's total population, estimated at 11.4 million.

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),