Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212045
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Grace Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The mountainous terrain of Mexico has taken its toll on Grace.
Surface observations and high-resolution visible satellite images
indicate that the system no longer has a definite surface
circulation, and Grace has degenerated into a trough to the
west of Mexico City. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this
system.

Although the surface center has dissipated, the mid-tropospheric
remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward, and to emerge
into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is high
likelihood that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical
cyclone over that basin by early next week. For additional
information on this possibility, see the eastern North Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS header MIATWOEP, WMO header
ABPZ20 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Through tonight, lingering heavy rainfall from the remnants of
Grace may result in additional areas of flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides, over central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212043
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Grace Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE WEAKENS TO A DISTURBANCE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 100.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the
coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Grace were located near
latitude 19.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although Grace has dissipated, its remnants will likely
move into the eastern North Pacific by Sunday afternoon, where it
is likely to develop into a new tropical cyclone next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Grace will be capable of producing an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of
around 5 inches through tonight across portions of central Mexico,
including Ciudad de Mexico. The lingering heavy rainfall may lead
to additional areas of flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides, through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212043
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 100.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211733
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE CONTINUES WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING
VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 99.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW of CIUDAD DE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None..

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Barra del
Tordo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 99.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a generally
westward motion is expected into early Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over central and west-central
Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while the
system moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico
today and tonight, and Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression later today and dissipate by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding should continue to subside along
the coast of Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast of
Mexico for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi, 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
18 inches are expected through Sunday. Over Ciudad de Mexico, 1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211454
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making
landfall around 0600 UTC. Visible satellite images show that
the system's organization is degrading, but there is still some
deep convection near the center with a few showers and
thunderstorms near the coast. Assuming a slightly faster rate
of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for
the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt.
Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves
over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and
tonight. Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength
tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning.

After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current
motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally
westward motion until dissipation on Sunday.

The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward
after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the
eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is a good chance that
this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that
basin by early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead
to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood
of mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 19.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 98.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE of CIUDAD DE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto
Veracruz to Cabo Rojo is replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Barra del
Tordo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 98.9 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a
generally westward motion is expected into early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over central and west-central
Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while
the system moves over the mountains of central and west-central
Mexico today and tonight, and Grace is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression tonight and dissipate by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding should continue to subside along
the coast of Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area along the coast of Mexico for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi, 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
18 inches are expected through Sunday. Over Ciudad de Mexico, 1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO
VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 98.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211149
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 98.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
inland near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 98.3 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the
forecast track, Grace will continue to move farther inland and reach
central Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected as Grace
moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico today, and the
hurricane is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by this
afternoon, and then dissipate tonight or Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds during the next few hours near where Grace made landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions
of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico over the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico for the next
several hours.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well
as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210858
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Hurricane Grace made landfall around 0600 UTC this morning near
Tecolutla, Mexico with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt.
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the hurricane
earlier tonight and found winds supporting an intensity of 105 kt.
After the aircraft left the cyclone, the satellite appearance
continued to improve with the eye clearing and becoming
better-defined. Therefore, it is assumed that some additional
strengthening occurred before landfall. Since that time, the
inner-core of Grace has moved inland over eastern Mexico and recent
radar and satellite images show a pronounced degradation of the eye
and eyewall. Based on this trend, the initial advisory intensity has
been lowered to 95 kt.

Grace is moving a little south of west, or 260/12 kt. A westward
motion is forecast to continue through tonight until the cyclone
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one and is in line with the track consensus guidance.

The hurricane's forecast motion will take it over the mountainous
terrain of interior Mexico today into tonight. Therefore, rapid
weakening is expected and the latest NHC intensity forecast for
Grace is near the Decay SHIPS guidance. By tonight, the low-level
circulation is expected to dissipate over the higher terrain. As
mentioned in previous advisories, the mid-level vortex of Grace is
forecast to survive the westward passage over Mexico and reach the
eastern Pacific late this weekend where a new tropical cyclone is
expected to form.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely to
continue along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico for
the next few hours within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto
Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead
to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood
of mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 20.5N 97.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 97.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 97.8 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Grace
will continue to move farther inland and reach central Mexico later
today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as Grace moves
inland over the mountains of central Mexico today, and the hurricane
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by this afternoon, and
then dissipate on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow
during the next few hours near where Grace made landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions
of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico over the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through this
morning.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well
as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210852
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 97.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210557
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF
TUXPAN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 97.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite imagery and radar data from Mexico indicate that Grace
has made landfall along the coast of Mexico near Tecolutla, Mexico,
just prior to 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC). At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the
center of Hurricane Grace was located just inland near latitude 20.6
North, longitude 97.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10
mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
through this evening. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is
forecast to farther inland over mainland Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Grace is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected
as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center
is making landfall through early this morning. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions
of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico through early this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through this
morning.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace
will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210300
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Hurricane Grace has rapidly intensified this evening. Deep cold
convection has been wrapping around the center, with some evidence
of mesovorticies rotating within the eyewall following the GOES-16
GLM lightning data. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters arrived
in Grace around 0000 UTC and found that the storm had intensified
into Category 2 hurricane with the pressure dropping down to
967 mb, which is a pronounced deepening rate of 2 mb per hour
compared to the previous advisory. More recently, the aircraft was
able to pass through the northeastern eyewall, and recently found
flight level winds up to 115 kt with SFMR winds of 105 kt. These
observations support Grace being upgraded to a major hurricane this
advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 105 kt.

Some additional strengthening is possible while Grace remains over
the very warm waters in the Bay of Campeche, though the hurricane
should be making landfall tonight within the next 3-6 hours just
south of Tuxpan, Mexico. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be
well inland, and rapid weakening will likely be underway over the
very mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico. The latest NHC
intensity forecast now had Grace dissipating over Mexico in about
36 hours. However, as discussed in previous advisories, while the
low-level circulation is expected to dissipate, the mid-level vortex
is forecast to survive the passage of Mexico, and this feature is
likely to lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone in the
eastern Pacific basin later this weekend or early next week.

Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that Grace has stayed on a
mostly due westward heading, at 270/9 kt. This general motion,
though with a bit more southward component should continue through
landfall and dissipation. This southward deflection over often
occurs with strong hurricanes in this region, due to the
topographical effects of the wind field to the north ascending over
the higher terrain. The official NHC track is very similar to the
previous advisory, and remains near the middle of the guidance
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along
portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico beginning tonight
and tomorrow morning within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto
Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. A dangerous storm surge is likely near and to the north of the
where the center of Grace crosses the coast of Mexico.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi
will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the
likelihood of mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.7N 96.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0000Z 20.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210258
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area later tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120
mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts, making Grace a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible until Grace makes landfall,
with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the
mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico through tomorrow morning.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210256
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.0N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210051 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Corrected wind speed in km/h for summary and discussion section

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING...
...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes
landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over
the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air
Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210000
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING...
...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes
landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over
the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air
Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202045
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The satellite presentation of Grace has greatly improved over the
past several hours. Deep convection has become more concentrated
over the center, and the central dense overcast now appears more
symmetric. Dropsonde winds and peak 850-mb flight level wind
measured by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around midday were
consistent with an intensity of around 75 kt. However, the surface
pressure has been gradually falling throughout the day, and recent
satellite data suggest the hurricane is becoming better organized.
Therefore, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for this
advisory, which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT
estimate.

Given the high oceanic heat content within the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, additional strengthening is expected through Grace's
landfall tonight. The 10-15 kt of northerly vertical wind shear over
Grace does not appear to be having much of a negative effect on the
cyclone at this time. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and is closest to
the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM. The current forecast
shows Grace making landfall within the next 12-18 h. Once the center
of Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico, the
cyclone should rapidly weaken and then dissipate by 48 h. However,
its remnants appear likely to move into the eastern Pacific and lead
to the development of a new tropical cyclone in that basin later
this weekend or early next week.

Earlier reconnaissance data indicate that Grace has slowed down a
bit today, and its initial motion is estimated to be 265/9 kt. This
general motion should continue through landfall as Grace is steered
by a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official
NHC track forecast is slightly slower, but otherwise very similar to
the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along
portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico beginning this
evening within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz
northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi
will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the
likelihood of mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 95.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 21/1800Z 19.9N 98.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0600Z 19.5N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202044
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 95.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 95.1 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes
landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over
the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202043
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 101.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 95.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201748
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion at a
slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through this evening, and
then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
hurricane warning area tonight.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace
makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland
over the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches) is
based on data collected by the aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN
MEXICOATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with
tropical storm conditions expected later this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201448
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Grace is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Its structure has
continued to improve in satellite imagery this morning, with more
pronounced curved banding in its northern and eastern semicircles
and good upper-level outflow. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 92 kt and peak
SFMR winds of 74 kt during a pass through the northeast quadrant
earlier this morning. These data support increasing the initial
intensity of 75 kt, which makes Grace a hurricane once again.
Dropsonde data from the aircraft indicate the minimum pressure has
fallen to 982 mb.

The warm waters of the Bay of Campeche are expected to support
additional intensification through landfall in mainland Mexico later
this evening or tonight, despite some light to moderate northerly
wind shear. Since the reconnaissance data revealed Grace is
strengthening quicker than previously forecast, the official NHC
intensity forecast was increased in the short-term. Grace is now
forecast to become a 90-kt hurricane in 12 h, which lies on the high
end of the intensity guidance. The center of Grace will be well
inland by 24 h, and rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as the
cyclone moves over the mountains of central Mexico. Although Grace
is forecast to dissipate by 48 h, its remnants will likely move into
the eastern Pacific and lead to the development of a new tropical
cyclone later this weekend or early next week.

The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/12 kt. Grace
should continue moving westward to west-southwestward through
landfall to the south of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. The official NHC track forecast remains near the middle of
the guidance envelope and has been adjusted just a bit southward
based on the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along
portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today within the
Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi
will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of
mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 20.6N 94.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 95.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 94.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.3 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion at a
slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then make
landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane
warning area this evening or tonight.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with
rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of
central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches) is
based on data collected by the aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with
tropical storm conditions expected this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201446
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 93.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 95.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 94.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201149
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND GRACE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 93.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 93.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland
Mexico this evening or tonight.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. More strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall.
After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the
mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (50 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 983 mb (29.03 inches) is based on
data collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern
Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200852
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Deep convection has increased near the center of Grace overnight
with improved banding structure over the eastern portion of the
circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt and SFMR winds of
58 kt during the aircraft's final pass through the northern portion
of the storm prior to 06Z. Based on those observations, the
initial wind speed was increased to 60 kt on the 06Z intermediate
advisory, and it remains at that value for now. Grace is close
to re-gaining hurricane strength, and the next reconnaissance
mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning.

Grace will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche today. That, along with light to moderate vertical wind
shear conditions, are expected to allow for re-intensification
until landfall in mainland Mexico tonight. The updated intensity
forecast brings Grace to a 75-kt hurricane in 12 hours, and the
storm could be slightly stronger when it makes landfall overnight.
By 24 h, the center is forecast to be inland, and Grace will
likely already to have begun to weaken. Rapid weakening should
occur on Saturday as Grace moves farther inland over the
mountainous terrain of central Mexico, and the circulation is likely
to dissipate in around 48 hours. The remnants of Grace are expected
to move into the Pacific where they are likely to spawn a new
tropical cyclone.

The cyclone has been moving westward or 270/14 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should continue to steer the
cyclone westward to west-southwestward until dissipation occurs in
a couple days. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope and is essentially unchanged from the
previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along
portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to
Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi
will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 20.7N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200851
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN SOON...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 93.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 93.3 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland
Mexico this evening or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and
the system is expected to regain hurricane strength this morning.
After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the
mountains of central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the
southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200851
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 93.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 93.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 93.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200555
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 92.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 92.6 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward
motion is expected early this morning, followed by a westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning later today.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall
along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Grace is re-strengthening. Maximum sustained winds
are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system
is expected to regain hurricane strength later this morning. After
landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the
mountains of central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. An automated observing site on Cayo Arenas,
located about 120 miles (190 km) northeast of the center of
Grace, has reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust
to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional
to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible
through early this morning.

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding
as well as mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the
southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200259
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

During the past few hours, the center of Grace has emerged over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated convection is
currently poorly organized and mainly occuring in a band to the
east of the center. However, data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that 55 kt surface winds are
occurring about 20 n mi northeast of the center, and that will be
the initial intensity for this advisory. The aircraft also
reported that the minimum central pressure was near 994 mb.

Conditions appear favorable for re-intensification once the
convection becomes better organized near the center, a process
that could take several more hours. The new intensity forecast
calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt in 24 h, just before the center
makes landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico. The intensity for
this part of the forecast follows the trend of the intensity
guidance and is near the intensity consensus. After landfall,
Grace is expected to weaken rapidly, with the circulation
dissipating over the mountains of Mexico just after 48 h. The
remnants of Grace are expected to subsequently move into the
Pacific and develop into a new tropical cyclone there.

The cyclone has nudged a little northward since the last advisory,
and the initial motion is 280/14 kt. Other than that, there is
little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast
track. Strong mid-level ridging should steer Grace westward for
the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion through
48 h. This motion should take the center across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico to a landfall in mainland Mexico in just over 24 h.
After landfall, the cyclone should continue west-southwestward into
the mountains of Mexico until dissipation. The new forecast track
is close to the consensus models and has only minor adjustments
since the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along
portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to
Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi
will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.8N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200258
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GRACE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward
motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make
landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday
night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace
makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane
strength on Friday. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as
it moves into the mountains of central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland
Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional
to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible
into early Friday morning.

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim
totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding
as well as mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the
southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200258
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST OF PROGRESSO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PROGRESSO TO CAMPECHE
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192341
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 91.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 91.0 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning
tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away
from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue
moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is
expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico
late Friday or early Saturday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has
emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a
hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of
Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected
after Grace moves inland over central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical
storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin
to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192057
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Grace has now been inland for almost 12 hours and the inner core
structure has been gradually decaying. In fact, the low-level center
is now partially exposed to the north of the mid-level vortex which
still has the majority of the deep convection. The initial intensity
has been lowered to 45 kt this advisory, assuming a bit more
weakening of the low-level center has occurred since 1800 UTC.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Grace to restrengthen
after the storm moves offshore this evening. However, it will take a
bit of time for the inner-core to reorganize before a faster rate of
intensification can occur. After that process occurs, significant
intensification is possible, and the latest intensity forecast makes
Grace a hurricane again by 24 hours and is near the upper end of the
intensity guidance by 36 hours when Grace will be just inland over
Mexico. However, it remains possible that the storm could intensify
more than indicated between the 24 and 36 hour points, when both the
global and regional high-res hurricane model guidance suggests Grace
will be near peak intensity.

Grace is still moving a bit north of due west at 280/13 kt. A
continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the
next 6-12 hours and Grace should be emerging offshore of the western
Yucatan Peninsula later this evening. Thereafter, a strong mid-level
ridge oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of Grace is likely to
steer the cyclone towards the west, and then west-southwest as it
nears mainland Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement,
and the latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous one,
staying close to the multi-model consensus aids. Although Grace is
likely to dissipate by 60 hours over the high terrain of Central
Mexico, the mid-level circulation should survive and emerge into the
East Pacific. This feature could contribute to the formation of a
new tropical cyclone in that basin.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this afternoon and
evening across the northern Yucatan Peninsula but should subside
later tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along
portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to
Cabo Rojo.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to
flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace
will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192051
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GRACE SOON TO EMERGE OFF THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 90.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 90.2 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning
tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to emerge off the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving
into southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a
second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Re-intensification is likely after the center emerges
offshore into the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a
hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of
Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected
after Grace moves inland over central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. An unofficial report from Merida, Mexico recently
measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 73 mph
(118 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the
tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several
more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane
warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin
to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192050
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 89.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 90.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191747
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 89.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the
weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to
move across the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours, and
move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this evening through
Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland
coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher. Re-intensification is likely after the center
reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when
it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late
Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace
moves inland over central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the
tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several
more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane
warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin
to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191444
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Grace made landfall as a hurricane near Tulum, Mexico around 0945
UTC (445am CDT). A storm chaser in Tulum reported a minimum
pressure of 983 mb at the time of landfall. Since then, the cyclone
has moved further inland where observations are far more
sparse, and we have no recent in situ observations to assist the
intensity analysis. The intensity is therefore set at 55 kt, based
in part on the inland decay wind model built into the SHIPS model.
The central pressure estimate of 995 mb is likewise uncertain.

Some additional weakening is likely this afternoon while Grace
continues to cross the Yucatan peninsula. The tropical storm should
emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and
re-strengthening is anticipated shortly thereafter. Environmental
conditions are expected to be quite conducive for strengthening,
but it will likely take Grace at least a little time to redevelop
its inner-core after disruption by land. That could act to limit
the rate at which the cyclone will intensify at first. The HWRF and
HMON both suggest that the most significant reintensification could
occur in the last 12 hours before final landfall occurs in mainland
Mexico, and that scenario seems likely. It would not be surprising
if Grace strengthened slightly more between the 36 h forecast point
over water and the 48 h point inland, particularly if the hurricane
moves slightly slower, giving it more time over the warm waters of
the southern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Grace should quickly
weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.
Overall, the NHC intensify forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory.

Grace continues to move to the west near 16 kt. A westward or
west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 12 hours or so,
after which a strong-deep layer ridge extending well over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S. will steer Grace westward
until landfall. Only minor adjustments were made to the official
track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus.
Although the tropical cyclone will quickly dissipate after it moves
inland, the ridge will likely steer its remnants further westward
toward the eastern North Pacific, where it could contribute to the
formation of a new tropical cyclone there.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue today across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to
Cabo Rojo.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to
flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace
will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 20.2N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 20/1200Z 20.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.4N 96.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/0000Z 19.6N 101.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191443
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 88.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Herrero and the Hurricane
Warning from Punta Herrero to Tulum. The Hurricane Warning from
Tulum to Cancun has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Warning from
Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm
Warning from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 88.8 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the
weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to
move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest
Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace will
likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late
Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher. Additional weakening is possible while Grace moves
across land today. Re-intensification is likely after the center
reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when
it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late
Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace
moves inland over central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread
westward today across the northern Yucatan peninsula within the
tropical storm warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or
early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin
to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline over the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191443
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA HERRERO AND THE HURRICANE
WARNING FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
TULUM TO CANCUN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
PUERTO VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL
TORDO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 88.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 88.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 88.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 101.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 88.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191147
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GRACE MOVING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THERE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 87.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF VALLADOLID MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de
Altamira

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. A hurricane warning will likely be required for
portions of the Watch area later this morning or afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 87.9 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a
general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast
track, Grace is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula
today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight
through Friday. The hurricane will likely make a second landfall on
the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75 mph (120 km/h) with
higher gusts. Grace is expected to continue to weaken as it crosses
Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches
the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is expected to be a hurricane when it
makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station located
at Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h)
and another Weatherflow site at Xcaret measured a gust to 57 mph
(92 km/h). The Cancun Airport reported a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next
hour or two and are spreading inland. Tropical storm conditions
will continue this morning along the coast and will spread across
the rest of the northern Yucatan Peninsula today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland
Mexico by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible
in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of
Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula... 4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo... 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center made landfall in the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the eastern mainland coast
of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 190952
TCUAT2

Hurricane Grace Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
450 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GRACE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO NEAR TULUM...

Satellite images and radar data from Belize indicate that Hurricane
Grace made landfall along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula around 445
AM CDT...0945 UTC...just south of Tulum, Mexico.

A Weatherflow station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen, Mexico,
recently measured a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust
to 85 mph (137 km/h). Another Weatherflow station located at
Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 59 mph (95
km/h) and a gust to 80 mph (129 km/h), while the Weatherflow site
located at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a sustained
wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). On Cozumel, a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h)
was observed at the Cozumel Lighthouse.


SUMMARY OF 445 AM CDT...0945 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 190855
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

After a brief convective hiatus between 0400-0700 UTC, deep
convection in the inner-core region has increased and become better
organized during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Grace more than 4 hours ago
reported a central pressure of 986 mb -- down 2 mb from previous
passes -- and a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 74 kt on
its last leg northbound around 0500 UTC. The 74-kt flight-level wind
equates to about a 67-kt surface wind speed. These data supported
maintaining a 70-kt intensity at 0600 UTC. The upper-level outflow
remains symmetrical and has been expanding somewhat over the past
few hours.

The initial motion is 280/15 kt based on the earlier recon fixes and
passive microwave satellite data. Grace should continue to move
generally westward for the next 48 hours, crossing the coast of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next couple of hours, followed
by a track across the Yucatan and emergence over the Bay of Campeche
by 24 hours, with a subsequent landfall along the eastern coast of
mainland Mexico shortly after the 48-hour forecast period. This
track scenario is consistent with the latest 0000 UTC global and
regional models, which show the strong deep-layer ridge to the north
of Grace maintaining its expansive presence across the western
Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Mexico. After the second
landfall, Grace is expected to turn west-southwestward and
dissipate over the mountains of central Mexico by 72 hours. The new
NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and
lies along the northern edge of the tightly packed consensus track
models.

Given the recent improvement in Grace's inner-core convective
structure noted in high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, some
slight strengthening to 75 kt could still occur just prior to
landfall this morning. Weakening will commence once Grace moves
inland over Yucatan, with re-strengthening expected after the
cyclone emerges over the Bay of Campeche where the vertical wind
shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt. Grace is expected to be a
hurricane when the second landfall occurs along the coast of
mainland Mexico, with the cyclone possibly reaching a peak
intensity of 75 kt shortly after the 48-hour period. After final
landfall in mainland Mexico, Grace should quickly weaken and
dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 hours, if not sooner.
The remnants of Grace are expected to emerge over the eastern North
Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of
whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes
forecast points over the Pacific at this time.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the
Hurricane Watch area of mainland Mexico later this morning or
afternoon.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous
storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late
Friday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for part of this area.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to
flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace
will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 20.0N 87.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GRACE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF COZUMEL AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE SPREADING ONSHORE NOW...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 87.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de
Altamira

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. A hurricane warning will likely be required for
portions of the Watch area later this morning or afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.2 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a
general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast
track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula during soon, move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and
move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible before landfall
on the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses
Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches
the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently
measured a sustained wind of 56 mph (88 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph
(127 km/h), while another Weatherflow station located at Puerto
Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (83
km/h) a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). On Cozumel, a sustained wind of
41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was observed at the
Cozumel Lighthouse, while a sustained wind of 40 mph (77 km/h) and
a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow site
near the airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours, and
tropical storm conditions are continuing to spread onshore.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across
the Yucatan Peninsula during the day today. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late
Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the
watch area for the next several hours.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula... 4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo... 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later this morning, and along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 190853
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE
ALTAMIRA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..195NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190544
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...GRACE APPROACHING THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 86.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...115 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de
Altamira

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radars
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 86.4 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a
general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast
track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula during the next six hours, move across the Yucatan
Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late
tonight through Friday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate maximum sustained
winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is expected before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.
Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but
re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico,
recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust
to 58 mph (93 km/h). Another Weatherflow station located at Puerto
Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is
986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later this morning, and tropical
storm conditions have already begun to spread onshore. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across the Yucatan
Peninsula during the day today. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday, and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
for the next several hours.

RAINFALL:
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday
through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in
areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of
producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later this morning, and along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 190255
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Grace has become a bit better organized during the past several
hours. Cuban radar data indicates that the eye and eyewall have
become better defined, and reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the inner core circulation has
become better defined. There are also occasional attempts at eye
formation in satellite imagery. However, these changes have not
yet resulted in significant intensification, with the maximum winds
remaining near 70 kt and the central pressure hovering near 988 mb.
One possible restraint on development is a dry slot that is seen
wrapping around the central core in both satellite imagery and
Cuban radar data.

The center has jogged a little to the left during the past few
hours, and the initial motion is now 280/16. The hurricane should
continue to move generally westward to west-northwestward for the
next 24-36 h, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion
from 36-48 h. This motion should bring the center over the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next 12 h, followed by
passage across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of
Campeche to a second landfall in mainland Mexico between 48-60 h.
After that, the cyclone should continue moving into the mountains
of Mexico until it dissipates. The new forecast track is nudged a
little south of the previous forecast, and it lies near the various
consensus models.

Except for the aforementioned dry slot, conditions appear
favorable for intensification before landfall on the Yucatan
peninsula. While not explicitly show in the intensity forecast,
Grace could reach an intensity of 75-80 kt before it reaches
Yucatan. The cyclone should weaken some as it crosses the
peninsula, then re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico until it
reaches mainland Mexico. After final landfall in Mexico, Grace is
expected to quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico just after 72 h. The remnants of Grace are likely to emerge
in the Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty
of whether this will be the original center or a new center
precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for
portions of mainland Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning during the next several hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous
storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late
Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for part of this area.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to
flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace
will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.8N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190254
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...GRACE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THAT AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo,
and a Tropical Storm Watch from the coast of mainland Mexico north
of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de
Altamira

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected through Friday,
followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the
forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula during the next six to twelve hours, move across
the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf
of Mexico late Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected before landfall on the
Yucatan peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses
Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches
the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland the
Yucatan Peninsula during the day Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by by
late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of
Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours.

RAINFALL:
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday
through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in
areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of
producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday
and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or
early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 190254
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO
ROJO... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA
HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE
ALTAMIRA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 182354
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 84.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 84.9 West. Grace is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next
several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make
landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move
over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest
Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of Grace
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the
center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with
restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 40256, located west of the center,
recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind
gust of 51 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 989 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Strong gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for
the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or
early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as
this evening.

RAINFALL:
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Cayman Islands and central to northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall
from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding

Over the central to northern Veracruz state of Mexico, 5 to 10
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are
expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will
likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be
capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 182044
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

A ragged eye appeared for a while on visible satellite imagery, but
it has recently been obscured by cumulonimbus tops. The overall
cloud pattern has been maintaining its organization with some
convective banding features and very cold cloud tops, mainly over
the eastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity
estimate is set at 70 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the hurricane in a few hours to provide
another intensity estimate.

Grace will continue to move over waters of very high oceanic heat
content prior to reaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
which of course favors intensification. Aside from moderate
northwesterly shear, a possible impediment to strengthening is a
northeast to southwest-oriented shear axis located just to the
northwest of the hurricane. Nonetheless, some intensification is
anticipated before landfall in Yucatan, with restrengthening over
the Bay of Campeche. The official intensity forecast continues to
be in general agreement with the multi-model consensus predictions,
IVCN and HCCA.

Grace is moving west-northwestward, or about 285/14 kt. There has
been essentially no change to the track forecast philosophy. Grace
should maintain a west-northwestward to westward motion, on the
southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge, for the next
several days. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and about on top of the latest multi-model consensus,
TVCA.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the
coast of eastern mainland Mexico tonight.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight or early Thursday.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous
storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late
Friday, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for part of this
area tonight.

3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as
well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should
lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall
from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 19.7N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.7N 89.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 99.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/1800Z 19.5N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 182041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next
several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make
landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move
over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of Grace
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the
center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with
restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). Tropical-storm-force wind gusts were reported over
portions of western Cuba this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Strong gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for
the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or
early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as
this evening.

RAINFALL:
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Cayman Islands and central to northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall
from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding

Over the central to northern Veracruz state of Mexico, 5 to 10
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are
expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will
likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be
capable of producing mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 182040
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA
HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 94.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 99.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 83.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181739
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...GRACE HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 83.0 West. Grace is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next
several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make
landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move
over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before the center of Grace
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the
center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with
restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern
coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning as early as this evening.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Veracruz State of Mexico....4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This
heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with
mudslides possible in Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 181500
TCDAT2

Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Grace is becoming better organized on satellite images with a
comma-shaped cloud pattern, and the upper-level outflow remains
well defined. Wind gusts well into the hurricane-force range were
measured on Grand Cayman earlier this morning, along with some
damage on the island. Recent flight-level and SFMR observations
from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support
sustained 65-kt surface winds, so the system is being upgraded to a
hurricane on this advisory.

Although Grace is situated over waters of very high oceanic heat
content, moderate northwesterly shear and only marginally moist
mid-level air could slightly impede intensification. However,
some additional strengthening is expected before landfall tonight
or early Thursday. Weakening will occur due to Grace's passage
over Yucatan, although that land mass has relatively low terrain.
Reintensification is anticipated over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and the system should regain hurricane strength before
reaching the east coast of mainland Mexico. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the numerical model consensus.

Grace has been moving west-northwestward near 13 kt. A prominent
mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of
the cyclone for the next several days. This pattern should keep
steering Grace on a west-northwestward to westward track for 72-96
hours. The track guidance models are in excellent agreement and
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast compared to
the previous few packages.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the
coast of eastern mainland Mexico later today.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight or early Thursday.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous
storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late
Friday, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for part of this
area later today.

3. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands
as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State
should lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in
the Mexican state of Veracruz.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 19.4N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT GRACE
BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch is discontinued for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 19.4 North, longitude 82.2 West. Grace is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next
several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will
continue to move away from Grand Cayman today. Grace is expected to
make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, and move
over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early Friday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast before the center of Grace reaches the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the
Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when
Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this
evening.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Veracruz State of Mexico....4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This
heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with
mudslides possible in Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 181450
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA
HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 81.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 82.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181159
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...GRACE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 18.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Grace is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near
or the Cayman Islands later this morning. Grace is expected to
make landfall in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico early Thursday,
and move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the
center reaching the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. Wind gusts to hurricane force have been reported
on Grand Cayman.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane
conditions are possible, over the Cayman Islands through this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern
coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning as early as this evening.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula
and Vera Cruz state....4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides
possible in Jamaica.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5
ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...OUTER BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...GRACE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 80.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Jamaica.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the southern coast Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and
Camaguey. The Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the
Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos,
Matanzas have also been discontinued.

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north and west coasts of the Yucatan
Peninsula from west of Dzilam to Campeche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near
or over the Cayman Islands later this morning. Grace will approach
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane
by tonight, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the
center reaching the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A reporting station near Rum Point Beach on the
north shore of Grand Cayman recently measured a sustained wind of
40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southern coast of Cuba within the warning area and over the Cayman
Islands through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical
storm conditions beginning as early as this evening.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula
and Vera Cruz state....4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides
possible in Jamaica.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5
ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 180852
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Grace
earlier this morning observed a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 61
kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface
wind speeds of 50-52 kt. The aircraft measured a central pressure of
about 1000 mb, a reading that had been steady for about 3 hours.
Those data were the basis for maintaining the 0600 UTC intensity at
50 kt. Since the last recon mission, however, deep convection has
increased markedly over the low-level center, with cloud tops
exceeding -75 deg C. Although the center is just inside the western
edge of convective cloud canopy due to modest west-northwesterly
vertical wind shear, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. These intensity estimates, along
with the increase in convection over the center is the justification
for increasing the 0900 UTC advisory intensity to 55 kt.

Grace has been maintaining a steady course north of due west, or
280/14 kt for more than 18 hours. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the cyclone is expected to keep Grace moving in direction
between west and west-northwest through the 96-hour forecast period.
The latest NHC model guidance remain in strong agreement on Grace
making landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico shortly after the 24-hour forecast period,
followed by a motion across the peninsula and emerging over the Bay
of Campeche around 36 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance begins
to diverge, with the HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC regional models along
the northern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS and UKMET
global models down the middle, and the ECMWF model along the
southern edge of the guidance suite. The new NHC forecast lies close
to the previous advisory track and the consensus models TVCA and
HCCA, which are a little south of the FSSE consensus model.

Although the upper-level wind environment isn't ideal for rapid
strengthening, it is conducive enough for steady strengthening to
occur due to the flow forecast to be strongly diffluent. Sea-surface
temperatures are expected to be near 30 deg C and the water is also
deep and warm, which should prevent any cold upwelling from
occurring beneath the cyclone. As a result, a peak intensity of 75
kt just prior to landfall has been carried over from the previous
advisory, which is a little above all of the 0600 UTC intensity
guidance. Although Grace will weaken substantially after passing
over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is expected over the
warm waters of thew Bay of Campeche in the 48-72- hour period where
the upper-level flow regime is forecast to be more conducive for
intensification. Dissipation is now expected over the mountains of
central Mexico by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at 36 hours and
beyond.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight.

2. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands
as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz State
should lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides will be possible
in Jamaica.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Cayman Islands
through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of
Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the
southern coast of Cuba in the watch area today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 18.8N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 180851
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 80.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180544
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 80.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CAYMAN BRAC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and
Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Dzilam
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* North and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of
Dzilam to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
satellites near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 80.1 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away
from the western coast of Jamaica and and move near or over the
Cayman Islands later this morning. Grace will approach the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight, with
some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly north through east of the center. A reporting station near
Rum Point Beach on the north shore of Grand Cayman recently
measured a sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph
(82 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of western Jamaica for a few more hours. Tropical storm
conditions
are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within
the warning area and over the Cayman Islands through this morning.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands later this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern
coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning as early as this evening.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may
lead to flash and urban flooding, and across Jamaica, mudslides will
also be possible.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5
ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 180248
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been
investigating Grace this evening have found that the center moved
off the western tip of Jamaica shortly before 0000 UTC. Radar and
conventional satellite imagery, as well as earlier microwave data,
show that convective banding has increased with a band that wraps
around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. The
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb
flight-level wind of 64 kt, and both aircraft have measured
believable SFMR winds of 50-52 kt. Based on those data the maximum
winds were increased to 50 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory,
and the initial intensity remains unchanged for this advisory.

Grace will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. That, along
with generally low to moderate vertical wind shear conditions,
should allow for steady strengthening until Grace reaches the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula in just under 36 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast call for Grace to become a hurricane on Wednesday, and the
storm could peak near category 2 intensity before it reaches the
coast of Mexico late Wednesday night or early Thursday. By the 36-
hour forecast, some weakening is likely to have occurred as that
point is now inland. Some weakening will likely occur while Grace
moves over land, but restrengthening is predicted when the storm
moves over the Bay of Campeche. The NHC intensity forecast is in
best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Grace has been moving slightly north of due west, or 280/12 kt. A
strong deep-layer ridge the extends from the western Atlantic across
the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the
tropical storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several
days. While the dynamical models agree on this overall forecast
scenario, there remains some north-south spread with the HWRF, HMON,
and GFS along the northern side of the guidance envelope, taking
Grace near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. On
the other hand, the UKMET and its ensemble mean depict a more
westward track toward the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico. The NHC forecast splits these differences and lies near
the various consensus aids, which were just a tad farther south this
cycle.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning late Wednesday night.

2. Heavy rainfall across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula is likely to lead to flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are possible in Jamaica.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica
for a few more hours, and over the Cayman Islands later tonight
and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman
Islands by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of
Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the
southern coast of Cuba in the watch area tonight through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180248
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward
to Dzilam. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the north
and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of Dzilam to
Campeche.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and
Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Dzilam
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* North and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of
Dzilam to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required early Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move
away from the western coast of Jamaica overnight. Grace is
forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands early Wednesday,
and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or
early Thursday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane
on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to
the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of Jamaica for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within
the warning area through tonight, and over the Cayman Islands
beginning by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday night
with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Wednesday
evening.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may
lead to flash and urban flooding, and across Jamaica, mudslides will
also be possible.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5
ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 180248
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD
TO DZILAM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO
CAMPECHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD
* NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
DZILAM TO CAMPECHE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 172343
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF
GRACE JUST WEST OF JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located just west of the western tip of Jamaica near latitude
18.3 North, longitude 78.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west
near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast
track, the center of Grace will move away from the western coast
of Jamaica this evening. Grace is forecast to move near or over the
Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional
strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan
Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust
to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at Kingston, Jamaica.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of Jamaica through early tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along a portion of the southern coast of
Cuba within the warning area through early tonight, and over the
Cayman Islands beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of
Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday night with tropical storm
conditions beginning as early as Wednesday evening.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti...an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain
areas today. This heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba...and additional 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Additional heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides.

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall could
lead to flash and urban flooding.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3-5
feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 172056
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Radar imagery and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ASCAT
observations indicate that the center of Grace has been moving over
Jamaica. The aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the
maximum winds are near 45 kt. Cirrus-level outflow from the
system remains quite pronounced, suggestive of weak vertical shear
at this time.

Grace will be moving over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea beginning later tonight. These waters are of very high oceanic
heat content. Although mid-level environmental humidities are
shown by the SHIPS diagnoses to be only marginally moist for the
next couple of days, other factors should be conducive for
strengthening. The official intensity forecast, which shows Grace
becoming a hurricane tomorrow, is in reasonable agreement with the
latest multi-model consensus. Some slight weakening should occur
due to passage over the Yucatan Peninsula, followed by
re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. There is, however,
significant uncertainty in the intensity prediction for this latter
part of the forecast period.

The storm continues on a heading just north of west, or 280/13 kt.
A strong 500-mb ridge should be maintained to the north of Grace
for essentially the entire forecast period. There is good
agreement among the track models on a continued generally westward
to west-northwestward motion for the next 5 days. Little change
has been made to the official track forecast in comparison to the
previous one. The new NHC track is, again, very close to the
dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday night.

2. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to cause to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in
Haiti.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica
through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands tonight and
early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning
area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in
the watch area tonight through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 18.4N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 172056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Cancun to Punta Herrero including
Cozumel, a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cancun to Cabo
Catoche, and a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Punta Herrero to
Puerto Costa Maya.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near the northwest coast of Jamaica at latitude 18.4 North,
longitude 77.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Grace will continue to move near the northwestern coast of Jamaica
for the next few hours. Grace is forecast to move near or over the
Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with
some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. The official reporting station in Kingston,
Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of Jamaica through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the
warning area through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba
within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
are expected for the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Wednesday night, but tropical storm conditions could
begin as early as Wednesday evening.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti...an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain
areas today. This heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba...and additional 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Additional heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides.

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall could
lead to flash and urban flooding.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3-5
feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the
coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 172053
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO INCLUDING
COZUMEL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO
CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO
TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171756
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near
the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to
move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early
Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on
Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the
center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Kingston, Jamaica recently reported a wind gust
to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area later this
afternoon through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the
watch area tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti...an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain
areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban
flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2-4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 171452
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

The cloud pattern of Grace is gradually becoming better organized
on satellite images, but the system still lacks distinct banding
features over the eastern semicircle. Cirrus-level outflow from the
system appears to be well defined. Flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, as well as dropsonde measurements, support an
intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Not much change in intensity is likely through this afternoon while
the circulation of Grace interacts with the island of Jamaica.
Thereafter, since the cyclone will be over the very high heat
content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea with modestly low
vertical shear tonight and Wednesday, strengthening is anticipated.
Grace will likely become a hurricane tomorrow and continue to
intensify before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The interaction
with that land mass is expected to temporarily interrupt
strengthening, with some reintensification over the Bay of Campeche
in 3-4 days. The official intensity forecast is near the model
consensus for the first half of the forecast period, but below the
consensus for the latter part of the period owing to the inherent
uncertainties for that extended time frame.

Grace continues to move just a little north of due west, or at
about 280/13 kt. A well-defined 500 mb ridge should remain
entrenched to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several
days. Therefore, a continued west to west-northwestward track is
likely to continue for most, if not all, of the forecast period.
The official forecast is close to the previous one through 72 hours
and just slightly south of it at 4-5 days. This is very similar to
the latest multi-model consensus prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in
Haiti and Jamaica.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica
today, and over the Cayman Islands later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern
coast of Cuba today in the warning area, spreading westward to
possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening
through Wednesday morning.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning will likely be needed for that
area later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 18.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND SPREADING
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 76.8 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near
the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to
move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early
Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with
some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of Haiti for the
next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon
and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into
early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti...an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain
areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban
flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2-4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 171452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 76.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 76.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171158
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GRACE NEARING JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 76.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 76.1 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near or over
Jamaica today. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands
tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico late Wednesday and early
Thursday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica
today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern
coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening,
and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of
Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Haiti...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This
heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible
mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 9 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170859
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty locating
the center of Grace early this morning. The last few visible
satellite images along with 0200Z ASCAT wind data indicated that a
lee-side surface low had formed south of the western tip of Haiti.
That feature has gradually been pulling northward closer to the deep
convection that has developed near the well-defined mid-level
circulation center. The initial position is the midpoint between the
recon position in the latest vortex message and the mid-level
circulation noted in passive microwave imagery. The aircraft also
found some patches of 925-mb flight-level winds of 48-51 kt, which
equates to surface winds of 36-38 kt. Reliable SFMR surface winds
obtained by the aircraft were also in the 36-38-kt range. Based on
these data, Grace was upgraded back to a 35-kt tropical storm at
0600 UTC. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the
immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across western
Hispaniola today and over Jamaica this afternoon and tonight, which
will likely cause severe flooding in some locations.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward across Florida and the
Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace
on a westward or west-northwestward track through the 120-h forecast
period. Only a very sight southward shift in the previous forecast
track was made, which was due primarily to the new estimated
southerly initial position, and the new NHC forecast track lies
along the northern edge of model guidance envelope.

Once Grace passes Jamaica in 12-18 hours, the cyclone will be
passing over water temperatures near 30 deg C and into a more
divergent upper-level wind flow pattern. These two favorable
conditions should allow for Grace to slowly intensify and possibly
be near hurricane strength by the time the cyclone reaches the
Yucatan peninsula in about 48 hours. Thereafter, Grace will weaken
as it pass over Yucatan, and then re-strengthen some over the Bay
of Campeche before reaching mainland Mexico in about 96 hours. The
NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN
consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba,
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential
for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola and over Jamaica on today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today,
spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other
portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through
Wednesday morning.

3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GRACE CONTINUING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 75.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward to Punta Allen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may
be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 75.4 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the northern
coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the
Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds recently reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft were near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches
the Yucatan coast of Mexico late Wednesday and early Thursday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this
morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning
area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Haiti...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of
15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This
heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible
mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 9 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170855
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 75.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 75.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 75.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170547
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AGAIN...
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the
Yucatan coast later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 74.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near
or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of
hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica this
afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands
tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this
morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning
area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through today. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected
through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban
flooding.

Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into
Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170244
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

IR and microwave imagery during the past few hours indicate that
Grace's convective organization has improved a little since this
afternoon. However, it is currently unknown if that has translated
to a better-defined surface wind field. Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB at 00Z supported tropical storm strength, and it
is possible Grace has redeveloped sustained winds of that magnitude.
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace in a
few hours, so it seems prudent to avoid making a big change before
the plane gets there. Grace is therefore conservatively maintained
as a 30 kt depression for this advisory. Regardless of Grace's exact
intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential
rainfall across Hispaniola overnight, which will likely cause severe
flooding in some locations.

The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. Confidence in the track
forecast has increased considerably during the past 24 h and the
track model spread is low. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build
over the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should
keep Grace on a generally westward or west-northwestward track
through day 5. Once Grace moves away from Haiti, it should remain
over water until it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday or
early Thursday. Very little change was made to the official track
forecast, which is based primarily on the multi-model consensus
TVCN.

Now that Grace is forecast to avoid all major land masses for the
next couple of days, all of the intensity guidance calls for some
strengthening to occur. That said, with the exception of the
COAMPS-TC model, the intensity guidance as a whole shows a slower
rate of strengthening than it did 6 h ago. The NHC forecast is now
very near the IVCN intensity consensus throughout the forecast,
including over the Gulf of Mexico where it continues to show Grace
reaching hurricane strength. Despite the slightly lower guidance for
this forecast, it still can not be ruled out that Grace will reach
hurricane strength over the western Caribbean. When the hurricane
hunter aircraft reaches Grace in a couple hours and provides more
information about the current organization of cyclone, we should
have a better feel for how quickly it could intensify prior to
reaching the coast of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba,
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential
for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola overnight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba
on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly
other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning.

3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 19.7N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 21.0N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/0000Z 21.6N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 21/0000Z 22.2N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...
...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 73.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern coast of the province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the
Yucatan coast early Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 73.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the
next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will
continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during
the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba
and Jamaica on Tuesday. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman
Islands Tuesday night and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Further
strengthening is anticipated before Grace approaches the coast of
Mexico in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti overnight,
and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday,
and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected
through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban
flooding.

Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into
Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170241
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 73.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 73.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 75.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.3N 85.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.6N 91.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 95.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 73.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 162351
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...GRACE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
...THREAT OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or
warnings are possible tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or
over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti tonight. It will then move
between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman
Islands Tuesday night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace
is expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday. Grace could
be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti through
tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on
Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected
through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 162048
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Grace may have regained tropical storm status just before the
center moved across the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican
Republic around midday. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
measured peak 925-mb winds of 45 kt very near the coast, which
would equate to an intensity right at the threshold of tropical
storm. Since then, however, land interaction has likely weakened
these winds, and Grace is still estimated to be a 30-kt depression.
The center appears to have moved back over water just to the south
of the Haitian coast.

Grace has been moving a little slower today, possibly due to
interaction with the terrain of Hispaniola, and the initial motion
is estimated to be 285/11 kt. A mid-level high centered over the
western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the
southeastern United States and northern Gulf of Mexico in the
coming days. This pattern should keep Grace on a westward to
west-northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period,
moving across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The
most significant model trends are on days 4 and 5, when many of the
track models are indicating a slight west-southwest bend as the
cyclone approaches mainland Mexico. The NHC track forecast has
been nudged southward at most forecast times, but that may be
within the noise level of typical model run-to-run variability.

Once the center of Grace moves away from Hispaniola tomorrow, the
deep, warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and relatively
light deep-layer shear should be conducive for strengthening.
Model data suggest that some mid-level shear could come into play
at times, so it's not a sure bet that conditions will be ideal for
significant strengthening. Partly for that reason, the NHC
intensity forecast is near or just below the intensity consensus.
However, even this new forecast is a little higher than the
previous forecast, and many of the models indicate that Grace could
be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan
Peninsula in about 60 hours. After passing the Yucatan Peninsula,
additional strengthening is likely, and the new forecast now
explicitly shows Grace reaching hurricane intensity over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti
and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola this evening and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern
coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands
and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday
evening through Wednesday morning.

3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.9N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.3N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR SW TIP OF HAITI
24H 17/1800Z 18.9N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 19.6N 80.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS
48H 18/1800Z 20.2N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 20.9N 86.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR YUCATAN COAST
72H 19/1800Z 21.6N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 22.4N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 22.4N 98.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 162048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...GRACE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 72.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or
warnings are possible tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 72.4 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti through tonight, move between Jamaica and
southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday
night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is
expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday. Grace could
be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this evening
into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning
area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along
the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected
through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 162047
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 74.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 77.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 83.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.9N 86.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 89.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.4N 95.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 72.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161735
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAITI...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA
THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 71.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or
warnings are possible later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 71.6 West. Grace
is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue over the next several
days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over or
near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and tonight, and
then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this
afternoon into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the
warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread
westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast
of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 161455
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters were both able to
locate a center for Grace--probably the most well-defined center
observed over the past few days. That center now appears to be
moving onshore along the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican
Republic as we speak. The planes measured several possible areas
of tropical-storm-force winds from the SFMR, however these
observations have not been supported by the more reliable 925-mb
flight-level winds for weaker systems, which were only as high as
38 kt, and warrant maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity.
Dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1007
mb.

The aircraft fixes confirm that Grace is moving westward, or 280/13
kt. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to slide
westward over the southeastern United States during the next
several days, which should keep Grace on a westward to west-
northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period.
This scenario is agreed upon by all of the available track models,
and the new NHC track forecast has only been nudged slightly
southward from the previous forecast based on the latest consensus
aids.

Grace's intensity forecast remains complicated by interaction with
land and the possibility of some westerly shear during the forecast
period. However, the southern shift in the forecast track takes
the center of Grace more definitively over very warm 30 degrees
Celsius waters in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Therefore,
gradual strengthening is anticipated while Grace approaches the
Yucatan coast of Mexico. Once the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the shear appears to decrease, and conditions there will
likely be conducive for additional strengthening. In fact, many of
the models, including the consensus aids, bring Grace to hurricane
intensity, and the NHC intensity forecast has therefore been bumped
upward, bringing Grace very near hurricane strength by the end of
the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti
and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola today and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern
coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands
and other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening
through Wednesday morning.

3. There is a increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts over
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and
updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.7N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...S COAST OF HAITI
24H 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...N COAST OF YUCATAN
96H 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...CENTER OF GRACE JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE BARAHONA PENINSULA OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 71.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
southern coasts of the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las
Tunas, and Camaguey. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
the southern coasts of the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or
warnings are possible later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Grace
is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the
southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then pass
between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace
is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern
coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the
Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of
Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread
westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast
of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 161454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS
TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 71.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 71.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 71.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161156
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING
GRACE...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 70.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Cayman Islands should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are likely
later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west
to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several
days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near
the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then
between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread
westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160848
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

The structure and organization of Tropical Depression Grace has
changed little over the past several hours. An earlier ASCAT-B
overpass showed that the circulation is elongated from the NE-SW,
with peak winds of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft investigated Grace a few hours ago, and indicated that the
cyclone refuses to make the decrease in forward speed and turn to
the west-northwest that most of the guidance has been calling for.
The aircraft also measured peak flight level winds of 37 kt at 925
mb, which equates to about 28 kt at the surface. Although there were
some SFMR vectors of tropical storm force, those winds were sampled
in heavy rainfall and were likely not representative of the actual
surface winds. Based on this data, the initial intensity is kept at
30 kt for this advisory.

Grace is moving toward the west, or 275/13 kt. The forecast models
continue to make a shift to the south, as they are coming into very
good agreement on maintaining a strong mid-level ridge to the north
of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The latest track
forecast was adjusted a little south of the previous one through the
first couple of days of the forecast, with a larger shift to the
south farther out in time. This forecast track remains to the north
of the track consensus, so if the track models remain consistent,
additional adjustments to the south will likely be made in the next
forecast cycle.

The evolution of the forecast track of Grace is having major
implications on the future intensity of the cyclone. It is becoming
more likely that the system will track over only the southern
portion of Hispaniola, which would result in a lesser disruption
of Grace's circulation. Furthermore, the more southern track would
bring the cyclone over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean
beginning on Tuesday. The environment over that portion of the
Caribbean is not all that hostile, with about 10-15 kt of northerly
shear being the main inhibiting factor for intensification. By
midweek, Grace may interact with the Yucatan Peninsula, which
should limit strengthening or perhaps weaken the system depending on
the track. Once over the western Gulf of Mexico, late in the
forecast period, some additional strengthening is expected,
although the wind shear is forecast to increase slightly during
that time frame. The latest NHC intensity forecast was raised
slightly to reflect the additional time expected over water.
However, this forecast is a little lower than most of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti
and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola today and tonight.

3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across
southeastern Cuba and Jamaica beginning Tuesday morning, and the
Cayman Islands by Tuesday night. Interests there areas should
monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.9N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.3N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 20.1N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 20.8N 83.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 22.6N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 23.4N 96.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160847
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...GRACE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 70.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should
monitor the progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west
to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread
westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160847
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 72.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 77.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.1N 80.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 83.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.6N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.6N 91.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.4N 96.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...GRACE CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a
general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over
Hispaniola later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and
near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
two to three days.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is
1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible
through today.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm
total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and
possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 63.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 0 33.4N 63.0W 1015 21
1200UTC 16.08.2021 12 32.2N 62.6W 1014 22
0000UTC 17.08.2021 24 31.4N 63.3W 1013 22
1200UTC 17.08.2021 36 30.8N 63.8W 1013 23
0000UTC 18.08.2021 48 30.8N 64.9W 1014 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 60 30.9N 66.1W 1015 25
0000UTC 19.08.2021 72 31.4N 67.7W 1015 23
1200UTC 19.08.2021 84 31.4N 69.0W 1014 24
0000UTC 20.08.2021 96 32.0N 69.6W 1012 25
1200UTC 20.08.2021 108 33.1N 68.9W 1011 29
0000UTC 21.08.2021 120 34.4N 67.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 21.08.2021 132 35.4N 63.7W 1010 34
0000UTC 22.08.2021 144 35.8N 59.8W 1009 34

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 0 27.0N 86.1W 1007 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 12 28.0N 86.4W 1006 29
0000UTC 17.08.2021 24 29.5N 86.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 17.08.2021 36 31.1N 85.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 18.08.2021 48 32.6N 85.1W 1010 22
1200UTC 18.08.2021 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 0 18.8N 121.7W 963 73
1200UTC 16.08.2021 12 18.0N 123.5W 971 63
0000UTC 17.08.2021 24 17.5N 125.3W 976 61
1200UTC 17.08.2021 36 17.3N 127.2W 976 61
0000UTC 18.08.2021 48 17.4N 129.4W 977 62
1200UTC 18.08.2021 60 17.6N 131.9W 979 58
0000UTC 19.08.2021 72 18.3N 134.6W 982 57
1200UTC 19.08.2021 84 19.0N 137.5W 990 50
0000UTC 20.08.2021 96 19.8N 140.6W 998 44
1200UTC 20.08.2021 108 20.4N 144.0W 1002 39
0000UTC 21.08.2021 120 20.6N 147.1W 1003 37
1200UTC 21.08.2021 132 20.8N 149.6W 1002 41
0000UTC 22.08.2021 144 21.1N 151.5W 1003 37

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 0 16.5N 68.9W 1011 28
1200UTC 16.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 18.9N 81.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2021 60 19.2N 82.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 19.08.2021 72 19.4N 86.0W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.08.2021 84 20.0N 88.9W 1006 35
0000UTC 20.08.2021 96 20.2N 92.3W 1003 40
1200UTC 20.08.2021 108 20.0N 94.3W 997 49
0000UTC 21.08.2021 120 19.8N 96.2W 990 49
1200UTC 21.08.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160359

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160241
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated Grace
earlier this evening and found maximum flight level winds just less
than 40 kt at 925 mb, which supports Grace's estimated 30 kt
intensity. The plane also found that the depression still has a
slightly elongated but closed surface circulation. During the past
few hours, satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in
convective banding features and associated heavy rain associated
with Grace. That activity highlights the primary threat from Grace
during the next 24 hours: prolonged heavy rainfall that could lead
to flash and urban flooding along with the potential for mudslides
over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

The forecast for Grace is incredibly challenging. Imminent
interactions with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could
cause Grace to dissipate as soon as Monday evening. However, a track
south of Cuba, as shown by recent runs of the GFS and COAMPS-TC, may
allow Grace to maintain its tropical cyclone status and possibly
even intensify. The HWRF even shows it becoming a hurricane over the
western Caribbean, with the caveat that the model has produced
several poor forecasts for Grace thus far. Although it is not
explicitly forecast, slight intensification is still possible
tonight or tomorrow morning before the center of Grace moves inland.
After that time, the NHC forecast assumes Grace will continue as a
tropical depression through 72 h. Once/if Grace makes it to the
western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in 3-4 days, it could have
an opportunity to reorganize and intensify, and this is again shown
in the official intensity forecast. That said, users are encouraged
to not focus on the exact track or intensity forecasts at days 4 and
5.

The track guidance has shifted south for this advisory, and
generally calls for Grace to move westward to west-northwestward
through the forecast period. The official track forecast has been
shifted a little south once again, but is north of the most recent
multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and
Haiti may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along
with the potential for mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola Monday and Monday night.

3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across Cuba
beginning Tuesday morning, but forecast uncertainty is much higher
than usual. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.3N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...GRACE CAUSING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN PUERTO RICO...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 68.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 68.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a
general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over
Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near
or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday
night.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible
through Monday.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm
total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and
possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GRACE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 68.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 68.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the United
States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located by an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 17.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. The depression is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba
on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

The aircraft reported that maximum sustained winds remain near 35
mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next day or two.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday
night.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts today into Tuesday:

Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding
and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible
mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will
reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 152051
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

An earlier ASCAT pass over Grace suggested that the maximum winds
were 25-30 kt and this has been confirmed by observations from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Aircraft and scatterometer data
also suggest that the circulation is elongated and disorganized.
Based on these data, the system is being downgraded to a 30-kt
depression at this time. Since the system is below storm strength
and is passing by Puerto Rico, the Tropical Storm Warnings for
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. The
island of Hispaniola is kept under a Tropical Storm Watch given the
possibility that the system could restrengthen tonight or tomorrow
morning before moving over land. Most of the reliable guidance
shows little change in strength over the next 2-3 days. This seems
reasonable since the circulation will be interacting with the
mountainous land mass of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next 72 hours.
The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the DSHIPS
and LGEM guidance during that time. Some restrengthening is
possible later in the forecast period when the system is expected to
move over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the global models are not
very bullish on intensification in 4-5 days, perhaps due to drier
air.

The system has moved mainly westward today, but the track models
are generally in agreement on a west-northwestward motion over the
forecast period. This is consistent with a well-defined mid-level
ridge staying in place over the southwestern Atlantic and across
Florida during this week. The official track forecast has been
shifted a little south of the previous one, following the
multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and
Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola Monday and Monday night.

3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but
forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests in those
areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152050
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...GRACE STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 67.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands has been discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from the southern Haitian
border to Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 67.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on
Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over
west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday
night.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts today into Tuesday:

Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding
and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible
mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will
reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 152050
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN
BORDER TO SAMANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GRACE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 67.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 67.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 66.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 67.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151748
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...GRACE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 66.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...90 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these
areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.8 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over
Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and
near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible until Grace moves over
Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast while the system
crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Some restrengthening
could occur if the center moves back over water on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today,
and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts today into Tuesday:

Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding
and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible
mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will
reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 63.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 35.0N 63.1W 1018 21
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 33.8N 63.3W 1015 20
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 32.5N 63.5W 1014 22
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 31.7N 64.0W 1013 20
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.4N 64.7W 1014 21
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 31.6N 65.6W 1015 22
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 31.6N 66.8W 1017 23
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 32.2N 67.9W 1017 22
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 32.5N 68.9W 1016 21
0000UTC 20.08.2021 108 32.8N 69.1W 1014 21
1200UTC 20.08.2021 120 34.2N 68.4W 1012 24
0000UTC 21.08.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 119.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 19.2N 119.9W 950 86
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 18.9N 121.9W 970 68
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 18.1N 123.7W 978 57
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 17.7N 125.6W 981 58
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 17.4N 127.7W 981 57
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 17.5N 129.8W 979 60
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 17.8N 132.2W 981 58
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 18.4N 134.8W 983 57
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 19.1N 137.4W 990 49
0000UTC 20.08.2021 108 20.0N 140.2W 997 43
1200UTC 20.08.2021 120 20.7N 142.9W 1002 40
0000UTC 21.08.2021 132 21.7N 145.2W 1003 37
1200UTC 21.08.2021 144 22.5N 147.2W 1003 41

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 17.0N 65.7W 1012 22
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 151559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 63.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2021 35.0N 63.1W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2021 33.8N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2021 32.5N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2021 31.7N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 31.4N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 31.6N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 31.6N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 32.2N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 32.5N 68.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 32.8N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2021 34.2N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 119.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2021 19.2N 119.9W INTENSE
00UTC 16.08.2021 18.9N 121.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.08.2021 18.1N 123.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2021 17.7N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 17.4N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 17.5N 129.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 17.8N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 18.4N 134.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 19.1N 137.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2021 20.0N 140.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2021 20.7N 142.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2021 21.7N 145.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2021 22.5N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2021 25.6N 84.6W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2021 26.7N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2021 28.0N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2021 29.3N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 31.1N 85.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 33.3N 84.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 37.3N 82.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2021 39.3N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2021 17.0N 65.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151559

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 151457
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

Grace remains a disorganized system, with only slight evidence of
curved bands of deep convection on satellite imagery. WSR-88D
radar data from San Juan show broad rotation of the precipitation
echoes, but no definite center. The advisory intensity is kept at
35 kt in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB. We are
waiting for additional observations in the system from an upcoming
NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission into Grace in a few hours.

Grace is in an environment of moderate shear and reasonably
moist mid-level environmental air. Therefore some strengthening is
expected before the system reaches Hispaniola tomorrow morning.
Thereafter, the future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much
the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles.
Weakening is likely due to the expected passage over the mountainous
terrain of Hispaniola, and some restrengthening could occur if the
center emerges over water near the Windward Passage. Grace is
forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength while moving
near the northern coast of Cuba. There is, however, considerable
uncertainty in the intensity forecast in 2-5 days.

The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 285/14 kt. A
well-defined mid-level high pressure system over the southwestern
Atlantic should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for
the next several days. The global models are in reasonable
agreement on a track near/over the Greater Antilles, including
Cuba, during the next several days and over the central Gulf of
Mexico in the latter part of the forecast period. The official
forecast has been changed little from the previous one and is
very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over
the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic
and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected over parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over northwestern
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday
night.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher
than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.2N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR N. COAST OF CUBA
72H 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 66.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these
areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will
move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast until Grace moves over Hispaniola on
Monday. Weakening is forecast while the system crosses Hispaniola
Monday and Monday night. Some restrengthening could occur if
the center moves back over water on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today,
and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts today into Tuesday:

Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce
scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding
and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible
mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will
reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 151446
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
SAMANA
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W...NEAR N. COAST CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 66.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151144
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...DISORGANIZED GRACE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 65.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warnings for Saba and Sint Eustatius have been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warnings for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy have
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these
areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 65.4 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches
Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses
Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is
expected on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today,
and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Sunday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and
urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150859
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

Radar data from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as
satellite images, indicate that Grace is still not a well-organized
tropical cyclone, although over the past few hours banding features
have become more evident and the outflow has improved. An earlier
ASCAT-C overpass showed peak winds of 30 kt associated with Grace,
and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 35 kt.
Assuming some undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial
intensity estimate remains 35 kt for this advisory.

Grace continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, or
285/18 kt to the south of a strong mid-level ridge. Aside from the
HWRF, which is a northern outlier and has not performed particularly
well for Fred or Grace, and also the Canadian model, which is a
southern outlier, the track guidance has come into better agreement
on the future path of Grace. The cyclone is expected to slow its
forward speed today, and maintain a west-northwestward motion to the
south of the ridge for the next several days. The NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, and then was
adjusted a little to the south of the previous one thereafter. On
this path, Grace would pass just south of Puerto Rico later today,
cross Hispaniola tonight through Monday night, then move along the
northern coast of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday.

Grace is in an environment favorable for intensification, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to 45 kt
before it reaches the Dominican Republic Monday morning. This
portion of the forecast is in good agreement with the various
consensus models. The intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain
thereafter, and is dependent on how much of the Greater Antilles the
cyclone interacts with. Based on the current track forecast, Grace
would cross a large portion of the rugged terrain of Hispaniola,
then interact with the landmass of Cuba for a couple of days. There
is a decent chance that the low-level center of Grace could
dissipate over Hispaniola as the system opens back into a tropical
wave. However, due to the possibility of the center remaining intact
after crossing that landmass, the NHC forecast calls for weakening
followed by little change in strength thereafter as it moves along
the Cuban coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 h
is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the FSU
Superensemble.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Leewards Islands this morning and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over eastern parts of
the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over western portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti Monday and Monday night.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across
Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher
than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
60H 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR CUBA COAST
96H 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo to the southern Haitian Border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches Hispaniola on
Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola
Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the
Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Sunday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic ...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150854
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
SAMANA
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 64.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 64.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 64.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150544
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...GRACE CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 63.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 63.7 West. Grace is now
moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, near or over the Dominican Republic tonight and
Monday, and then move near or over Haiti Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
affect portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150258
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Grace is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. Trying to pinpoint the
center of the storm over the last 6-12 hours has been a challenge,
even with the help of earlier NOAA aircraft, surface observations,
and radar data from Guadalupe. Earlier data from the NOAA aircraft
reconnaissance Twin Doppler Radar showed that the mid-level center
was tilted significantly further southeast relative to the
poorly-defined low-level circulation. Around 0000 UTC, multiple
reporting stations in Guadalupe showed a wind shift to the west, and
there were some skeletal bands seen on the nearby Guadalupe radar
ahead of a convective squall propagating ahead, which is currently
producing the coldest cloud tops with Grace. Given all of these
data, the center of Grace is estimated to have passed by just north
of Guadalupe over the last few hours. Despite the higher subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity was kept at 35
kt for this advisory given the lackluster wind data from the earlier
NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission.

Grace appears to have reformed a bit further North tonight, and also
now appears to be on a somewhat slower west-northwest heading, at
285/17 kt. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
even in the short-term, which is likely related to the current
disorganized nature of Grace. In general, Grace is expected to
maintain a west-northwestward motion and gradually slow down over
the next 24-36 hours. A strong low- to mid-level ridge poleward of
Grace should then maintain this west-northwest heading through the
remainder of the forecast. A lot of the track uncertainty in the
latter part of the forecast appears to be related to the future
intensity of the storm, and both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a
large north-to-south spread with stronger members tracking further
north and weaker members tracking further south. For now, the NHC
track forecast has been shifted north of the previous track, mostly
related to the further north initial position, and is in close
agreement with the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) model.

Grace appears to finally be slowing down a bit this evening, but
will still need to slow down a bit more in order to allow the low-
to mid-level centers to become better aligned. Because of this
disjointed structure, only slow intensification is anticipated. The
latest intensity guidance is a bit lower, and the NHC intensity
guidance follows suit, with a peak intensity of 45-kt in 24 hours.
Thereafter, it appears likely that Grace will have to deal with
significant land interaction over Hispaniola and weakening is
indicated by 48 hours. If Grace survives, it is possible some modest
intensification could occur in the latter part of the forecast
period. The intensity forecast remains closely tied to the track
forecast, and any deviations to the north or south could allow Grace
to stay stronger than indicated in this forecast. However, it also
remains distinctly possible that Grace could dissipate before the
end of this 5-day forecast due to the forecasted land interaction.

As previously mentioned, the exact track of the center and the
intensity of the system will likely not be as important as the heavy
rainfall that is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the
Greater Antilles during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across
Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty
remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor
the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.8N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
36H 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
60H 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150256
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS A
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 62.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire coast of
Haiti.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and Montserrat, and the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.4 West. Grace is now
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued
west-northwest motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or over the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and Monday, and then near or over Haiti Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tomorrow, and in the Dominican Republic tomorrow night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the
Dominican Republic tomorrow night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150253
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS,
AND MONTSERRAT, AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
SAMANA
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W...NEAR PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 62.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142358
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW NEAR GUADELOUPE...
...SQUALLY WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward to Samana.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch from the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti
border eastward to Cabo Caucedo and for the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Samana westward to the Haiti border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Storm Grace was relocated to near latitude 16.6 North, longitude
61.5 West. Grace is moving quickly toward the west near 23 mph (37
km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to pass through
the Leeward Islands tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
on Sunday, near or over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday, and then near or over Haiti Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.
Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to
the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the
Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142051 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Corrected rainfall statement in the Hazard section

...SQUALLY WEATHER FROM GRACE SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WILL BE A
CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 60.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Grace is
moving quickly toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands
tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or
over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near
or over Haiti Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Grace
is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 142043
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Grace is a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon. The
NOAA Hurricane Hunters were unable to close off a circulation, at
least at their flight level of 5000 feet, but dropsonde observations
and reports from some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles suggest
that there's at least a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface.
The various data also indicate that the center has sped up, or
re-formed, and is located farther southwest than previously
estimated. Based on the aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt.

Both the future track and intensity of Grace have a high level of
uncertainty. For the track, the forecast is likely to be
complicated by the fact that the system doesn't currently have a
tight low-level circulation, and the center could always re-form at
any time, especially with convection ongoing farther to the north.
In addition, the storm has not yet slowed down, and in fact, the
initial motion is estimated to be toward the west (275 degrees) at
23 kt. The guidance envelope has made a notable southward shift due
to the adjustment of the initial position, and the models insist
that Grace will primarily have a west-northwestward heading for much
of the forecast period with the speed gradually decreasing during
the next 48 hours or so. The NHC track forecast has been shifted
southward accordingly, although any re-formations of the center
could cause this track to shift again in future advisory cycles.

If Grace slows down as forecast--which is obviously not a sure
thing--environmental conditions should be conducive to allow for
some strengthening before the system reaches the Greater Antilles.
The southward adjustment in the official forecast now takes Grace
over the Greater Antilles for a longer period of time, and the
official intensity forecast is therefore lowered beyond 48 hours.
This is a middle-of-the-road solution, and actually lower than most
of the intensity guidance. If the forecast track shifts north or
south, the system could strengthen further over water.
Alternatively, Grace could go the way of Fred and dissipate before
the end of the 5-day period.

In the end, the exact track of the center and the intensity of the
system will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall that
is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the Greater
Antilles during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands tonight, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts
of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and
small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty
remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor
the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR DOMINICAN REP.
60H 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR HAITI
72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER CUBA
96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER CUBA
120H 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...SQUALLY WEATHER FROM GRACE SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WILL BE A
CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 60.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Grace is
moving quickly toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands
tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or
over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near
or over Haiti Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Grace
is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and
urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

Over Haiti...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding as well as
potential mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 142042
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO
ENGANO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
CABO ENGANO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 59.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 60.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141756
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE...
...GRACE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 58.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for this area later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
estimated by extrapolation near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 58.7
West. Preliminary reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the center may be located farther to the southwest,
and a relocation could be required in the 500 PM AST advisory.

Grace is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands
tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over
the Dominican Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern
Bahamas and Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Sunday night through Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Sunday night into Monday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 141453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Grace is sending mixed signals on its intensity this morning. The
storm has been producing persistent convective bursting since
overnight, which would suggest that some strengthening has occurred.
The latest subjective data-T numbers are 2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and
SAB, while objective satellite estimates are higher, roughly between
45-50 kt. Then, an ASCAT pass from 1302 UTC showed winds between
35-40 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace
this afternoon to provide a better estimate of the storm's
intensity.

Grace is speeding along toward the west (280 degrees) at 19 kt.
Mid-level ridging, entrenched over the western Atlantic, is
expected to weaken slightly during the next couple of days. This
evolution should cause Grace to slow down to 10-15 kt by Sunday
night and Monday and take on a west-northwestward heading. That
general trajectory should continue through the end of the forecast
period. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first
48-60 hours or so, showing Grace moving near or across the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. On days 3-5,
there is a little more spread, with a few models keeping the system
on a southern track across Cuba while others show tracks across the
Bahamas. The NHC track forecast splits this difference and
continues to show a track running between Cuba and the Bahamas,
very close to the HCCA consensus solution.

Deep-layer shear is forecast to be 10 kt or less for the next 36
hours or so while Grace is approaching the islands of the Greater
Antilles. The thermodynamic environment also appears conducive for
strengthening, but the system's continued fast motion is likely to
be an inhibiting factor on the rate of intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, bringing
Grace's intensity up to 50 kt by the time the storm reaches the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but it should be noted that this
forecast is on the lower side of the guidance. Only one model, the
HWRF, brings Grace to hurricane strength, but it does this by
having the storm move farther north and avoid land interaction
altogether. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain on days 3-5
since it depends on exactly how much Grace moves over the Greater
Antilles, and there is some model signal that increasing
northeasterly upper-level winds over the Bahamas and Florida could
become a negative factor.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands tonight and early Sunday, and the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic by early Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Florida next week, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
48H 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REP.
60H 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REP.
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...GRACE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 57.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano, and for the north coast from
Cabo Frances Viejo eastward to Cabo Engano.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for this area later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 57.9 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion toward the
west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican
Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and
Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is
likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles
Sunday night through Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Sunday night into Monday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 141452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND FOR THE NORTH COAST
FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO
ENGANO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
CABO ENGANO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 57.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141137
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 56.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic and Haiti should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required for this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 56.6 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the
west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is
forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican
Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts
with the Greater Antilles.

Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Grace can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts later today into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

Heavy rainfall from this system could impact Florida late next week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140840
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

The cyclone has become a little better organized overnight, with an
area of concentrated convection persisting over the center for the
past several hours. The system remains compact, with the convective
canopy about 100 n mi in diameter, while earlier ASCAT data revealed
winds greater than 25 kt extended only about 30 n mi from its
center, with peak winds of 27 kt. Despite the weaker maximum winds
sampled earlier this evening, the increase in organization of such
a small system has likely produced a notable increase in the
surface winds near the center. In addition the latest Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON
suggest that the intensity is now somewhere between 30 and 45 kt.
Based on a conservative blend of these values, it is estimated that
the Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into 35-kt Tropical
Storm Grace.

Grace continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion of
280/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should
continue to steer it westward for the next few days. Beyond that
time, the forecast models begin to diverge in their track solutions,
as they vary in the strength of the ridge. Overall, the models have
trended toward a stronger, more persistent ridge to the north of
the cyclone for the latter half of the forecast period, and as such
the model solutions are generally showing a track that lies a bit
south of the previous runs for those time periods. The official NHC
forecast track is little changed through 72 h and lies near the
middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Beyond 72 h, the
forecast track has been shifted slightly to the south, but still
lies to north of the consensus model tracks.

The earlier bout of wind shear that had entrained surrounding dry
air into Grace appears to have abated, at least in the short term.
And, global models indicate that the shear will remain low for about
the next 24-36 h while the cyclone moves over increasing SSTs.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that strengthening should
occur over the next day or so. Thereafter, the intensity forecast
becomes somewhat complicated as the system is forecast to interact
with an upper-level trough while possibly crossing the Greater
Antilles at the same time. Slight weakening is indicated in the NHC
intensity forecast as the system crosses the northern portion of the
Dominican Republic early next week. Thereafter, moderate to strong
northerly shear is forecast to impact Grace as the system moves into
the flow on the western side of an upper-level trough over the
western Atlantic. This shear should prevent any further
strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast is a little lower than a blend of the NOAA HCCA and IVCN
consensus, as there is likely a high bias from the HWRF in these
solutions. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is of
lower-than-normal confidence due to the potential for a longer
amount of time over the rugged terrain of the Greater Antilles than
indicated, and also due to the fragile nature of the small cyclone
and the possible effects of the stronger shear later in the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
also possible over the British Virgin Islands on Sunday. The risk of
strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic
Sunday night and Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may
lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, Cuba, and
Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.3N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.9N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE...
...EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 55.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 55.6 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the
west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is
forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican
Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts with
the Greater Antilles.

Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over the British Virgin beginning on
Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts later today into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.

Heavy rainfall from this system could impact Florida late next week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140838
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 55.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 55.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 58.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 64.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 67.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.9N 69.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.9N 75.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 79.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 55.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140540
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion
towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the
Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts today into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140259
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

While Tropical Depression Seven has maintained a irregularly shaped
cirrus canopy of deep cold cloud tops near its estimated center, the
convection does not appear well organized. Several SSMIS microwave
passes between 2011 UTC and 2205 UTC did not reveal much
organization under the cirrus, with just a few patches of deeper
convection contributing to the larger stratiform region. A helpful
ASCAT-B pass at 0030 UTC showed that the center was near the
southeastern end of this cirrus canopy, and found peak winds lower
than earlier today at only 27 kt. The 0000 UTC subjective Dvorak
estimates were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.5/30 kt from TAFB and the
most recent objective ADT estimate was in between at T2.2/32 kt. A
blend of these data support keeping the initial intensity at 30-kt
for this advisory.

The small cyclone continues to move quickly off to the west at
280/18 kt. A large low- to mid-level ridge draped across the central
and western North Atlantic is expected to maintain the system on a
general west-northwest heading, though with gradual deceleration as
the ridge is eroded some by a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. The
latest track guidance remains tightly clustered but a bit more
poleward through the first 72 hours. Afterwards, more track guidance
spread becomes apparent. A quick look at the latest ECMWF ensemble
guidance suggest that some of this spread is driven by the forecast
intensity of the system, with stronger members taking the cyclone on
a more poleward track. For now, the latest NHC track forecast is
fairly close to, but a little poleward of the previous track. This
track remains close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, and roughly
splits the difference between the deterministic GFS and ECMWF model
solutions.

The intensity forecast is somewhat conflicting. Even though both the
GFS AND ECMWF based SHIPS guidance depict low 200-850 hPa vertical
wind shear between 5-10 knots over the next 48 hours, the depression
is also embedded in very dry mid-level air, with 700-500 hPa layer
mean relative humidity as low as 44 percent currently in the
ECMWF-SHIPS. In addition, the system is moving rapidly westward,
and a continued fast motion in the short-term may result in higher
westerly mid-level shear which may have a larger than normal effect
to a small tropical cyclone in a very dry environment. After 48
hours, vertical wind shear out of the northwest is expected to
increase, ahead of a large upper-level trough digging southwestward,
upstream of the cyclone. Moreover, land interaction with both Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola remains a distinct possibility, especially if
the cyclone tracks left of the current forecast track. It is worth
noting the latest HWRF run continues to be a extreme outlier with a
much higher intensity than the remaining guidance. In fact, much of
global model guidance and COAMPS-TC regional hurricane model barely
maintains a closed circulation over the next 36-48 hours. I have
elected to maintain a very similar forecast to the previous
advisory, with peak winds of only 45 kt in 48-60 hours. This
forecast remains conservative and is still lower than the SHIPS and
HCCA intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and are possible over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. The risk of strong
winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may
lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next
week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.7N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1200Z 18.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 17/0000Z 19.6N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 21.7N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0000Z 24.3N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A
motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140248
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 52.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 56.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 60.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.2W...INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 68.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.6N 70.4W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.3N 78.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 53.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132355 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven
Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

Corrected to include Anguilla in the changes with this advisory
section

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 53.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and
Montserrat.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.1 West. The
depression is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h).
A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight or on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132343
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 53.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and
Montserrat.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.1 West. The
depression is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h).
A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight or on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 132052
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

Over the past few hours, the system moved just to the north of a
buoy owned by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. The
buoy's winds backed from northwest to west to south, indicating
that the system has a closed surface circulation. In addition,
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T2.0, and the
system is therefore being designated as a tropical depression on
this advisory. Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT
data and the Dvorak estimates.

The circulation has closed off despite the depression moving
quickly westward (275 degrees) at about 19 kt. The track guidance
is tightly clustered during the first 48-60 hours, with the
depression being driven quickly westward across the Leeward Islands
and toward the Greater Antilles by ridging to the north. After 60
hours, there is considerably more spread, with the regional
dynamical models keeping the system farther south over the
Caribbean Sea, and most of the other models indicating a turn
toward the west-northwest, following a track similar to Tropical
Depression Fred. The NHC track forecast generally favors the
latter scenario and is very close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus
aids.

During the next 2 days, the depression is expected to move beneath
an upper-level ridge axis, which should allow the deep-layer shear
to fall below 10 kt, with the system also moving over warmer waters
and through an environment of increased moisture. However, the
depression's fast motion, as well as the possible development of
some mid-level westerly shear, could stunt the rate of
strengthening. Due to these conflicting factors, the NHC intensity
forecast remains on the conservative side and is not quite as high
as the solutions shown by the SHIPS and HCCA models. The HWRF model
is quite aggressive, bringing the depression to hurricane strength
by day 3, but that model is an extreme outlier compared to the other
guidance. After 48 hours, the current forecast takes the center of
the depression over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, a scenario that
would cause weakening and suppress the system's intensity. As is
typically the case, the system could get stronger than shown in the
official forecast if it ends up moving over less land, or dissipate
entirely if it moves over land for too long.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. The risk of strong winds
will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night
and Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may
lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next
week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA
96H 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132052
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A
motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the
Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 132051
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SINT MAARTEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 51.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131751
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 50.3W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today
or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.3 North, longitude 50.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward
Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night
and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Sunday night and Monday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system remains
an open wave but maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical storm by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Saturday night or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6
inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131524 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

Corrected to indicate issuance time of intermediate advisory.

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today
or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next
week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach
the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands
Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Saturday night or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6
inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 131502
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

A tropical wave and small area of low pressure moving quickly
westward across the central tropical Atlantic has been producing
bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the wave axis.
Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that the system did
not quite have a closed circulation, but it is close. In addition,
the convective organization has increased a bit since yesterday,
with TAFB and SAB providing Dvorak classification of T1.5 and T2.0.
Therefore, only an additional slight increase in convective
organization and the low-level circulation closing off would make
the system a tropical depression, and it could be at tropical storm
strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands during the next
couple of days. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the
system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the
Leeward Islands at this time.

Subtropical ridging extending across nearly the entire Atlantic is
pushing the low along quickly toward the west, or 280/18 kt. In
general this ridging is expected to persist into the middle part of
next week. However, around the Sunday-Monday time frame, some
mid-level troughing over the western Atlantic could allow the
system to gain a little more latitude before it runs into
additional ridging located near the east coast of the United States
at the end of the forecast period. The GFS, which has perhaps one
of the strongest solutions, is a northern outlier and shows the
system turning farther into the weak troughing, while the ECMWF has
a weaker solution and keeps the system on a westward track across
the Lesser and Greater Antilles. At this time, the NHC official
forecast lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and it is
also relatively close to the ECMWF ensemble mean, which is farther
north than its parent model.

The biggest negative to the system becoming a tropical cyclone and
strengthening is its fast motion of 15-20 kt. However, that motion
is expected to gradually decrease in 2 to 3 days. At that same
time, deep-layer shear has decreased a bit, and the system will be
moving over warmer waters and toward a slightly more moist
environment. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated, and
the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids through 72 hours, up until the system is near
Hispaniola. After that time, land interaction is likely to disrupt
the circulation, and the official forecast is below the model
consensus aids on days 4 and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and the risk of
tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico late Sunday and Sunday night.

2. Heavy rainfall with this system may produce areas of scattered
flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into
Sunday.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA
96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today
or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next
week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach
the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands
Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Saturday night or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6
inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 131453
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL
STORM WACHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 49.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 49.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 48.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 49.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>