Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PENA-26 Off-shore from 06 Nov 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Nov 2026 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PENA-26

Off-shore

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

07/11 14:37 WTPA44PHFO071436

07/11 14:36 WTPA24PHFO071435

07/11 14:36 WTPA34PHFO071436

07/11 08:42 WTPA44PHFO070840

07/11 08:39 WTPA34PHFO070839

07/11 08:38 WTPA24PHFO070838

07/11 02:43 WTPA44PHFO070241

06/11 20:57 WTPA44PHFO062055

06/11 20:56 WTPA24PHFO062055

06/11 20:56 WTPA34PHFO062055

Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 071436
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Nov 07 2026

Tropical Storm Pena appears somewhat better organized on the latest
infrared satellite imagery, with persistent convective banding and
potentially an incipient central dense overcast feature located near
the suspected low-level center. This improvement in structure
appears to have not yet resulted in intensification, with the
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates tightly
clustered around 45 kt.

The cyclone is currently moving westward at 275/11 kt, and this
general motion is forecast to continue through the forecast period
as Pena is steered by a large low- to mid-level ridge located to its
north. The track guidance is in good agreement and the new forecast
blends the previous one toward the latest Google DeepMind and HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Between 96 h and 120 h, Pena is
forecast to accelerate and turn toward the northwest in response to
an approaching upper-level shortwave trough.

The environment around and ahead of Pena is not horrible, but it is
certainly not the best. In the short term, Pena is forecast to
intensify somewhat as it moves across favorable sea surface
temperatures and through a region of low vertical wind shear with
sufficient mid-level moisture. Beyond 24 h, there are some
indications that Pena could be contending with dry air intrusions
and unfavorable upper-level winds, both of which would slow or limit
intensification. There continues to be a large spread in the
intensity guidance, with the ECMWF and SHIPS models insisting on
slow intensification through the forecast period, Google DeepMind
showing nearly no change in strength, and the GFS and regional
hurricane models showing imminent weakening and even dissipation. In
the absence of higher confidence, the new intensity forecast is
largely unchanged from the previous one, except to show Pena
intensifying to 55 kt at 12 h based on recent satellite trends and
the aforementioned favorable short-term environment. The new
forecast remains near the middle of the larger than normal guidance
envelope, and is again of lower than normal confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.4N 153.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 11.5N 154.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 11.4N 156.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 11.4N 157.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 11.3N 159.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 11.3N 161.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 11.5N 163.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 11.6N 168.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 13.0N 174.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mahoney

Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 071435
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 153.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 30SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 153.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 152.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.5N 154.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 11.4N 156.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 11.4N 157.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.3N 159.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.3N 161.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.5N 163.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 11.6N 168.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 13.0N 174.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 153.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY=

Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 071436
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PENA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT NOV 07 2026

...PENA PROCEEDING WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 153.3W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 153.3 WEST. PENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY=

Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070840
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

The latest satellite imagery indicates that Pena has re-developed
convective banding closer to the cyclone's center. In addition, a
just-received GMI overpass suggests that the low-level structure
has become better defined, with the possible formation of a small
inner core. Satellite intensity estimates have generally nudged
upward a little since the last advisory, and based on this trend
the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The latest
scatterometer overpass missed the inner core, but did show an area
of 25-30 kt winds 60-150 n mi away from the center in the eastern
semicircle.

The initial motion is westward or 275/10 kt. Pena should be steered
generally westward for the next several days by a large low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, with a west-
northwestward motion possible near the end of the forecast period.
The track forecast guidance is in generally good agreement with
this scenario, although some of the models show a south of west
motion during the 24-60 h period. The new track forecast is similar
to the previous forecast through 72 h and is a little south of the
previous forecast at 96 and 120 h.

The intensity forecast still has some confidence issues. The
overall environment still seems to be favorable, with warm sea
surface temperatures, a moist air mass, and light shear for at
least the next four days. This results in the statistical-
dynamical guidance showing steady strengthening. However, the
dynamical model guidance is in poor agreement on how much
strengthening will occur and if there will be any strengthening at
all. To highlight the spread of just the global models, the ECMWF
shows strengthening through the next five days, the GFS and the
Canadian show little development through three days followed by
some strengthening, and the UKMET shows essentially no
strengthening at all during the forecast period. Given the lack of
model consensus even on trends in the forecast intensities, the
intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening in best
agreement with the SHIPS model. The new forecast is an update of
the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 11.4N 152.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 11.4N 155.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 11.2N 157.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 11.2N 160.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 11.3N 162.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 11.6N 167.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 12.9N 173.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 070839
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PENA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST FRI NOV 06 2026

...PENA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 152.4W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 152.4 WEST. PENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 070838
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 152.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 152.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 151.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 11.4N 155.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.2N 157.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.2N 160.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.3N 162.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 11.6N 167.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 12.9N 173.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 152.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070241
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

Satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests that while
deep convection has weakened some around Pena's core, strong banding
persists well away from the cyclone's center. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimate from HFO rated the storm at 2.5/35 kt, but
with a Data T of 3.0/45 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also
range from 37-41 kt. Based on Pena's satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena
is expected to keep moving westward over the next several days as it
is steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the central
Pacific. Track guidance generally exhibits good agreement on Pena's
motion through most of the forecast period, depicting a turn to the
west-northwest by the middle of next week as the ridge slightly
weakens. The latest NHC track forecast generally follows a blend of
HCCA and GDMI guidance, reflecting a slight poleward shift in the
long-range track compared to the previous advisory.

Gradual intensification is forecast for Pena as its surrounding
environment is characterized by low vertical wind shear, anomalously
warm SSTs, and ample mid-level moisture. In fact, SHIPS guidance
from the GFS suggests a 48 percent chance of rapid intensification
in 24 hours, reflecting the storm's favorable environment. Intensity
guidance on average shows a upward trend compared to the previous
advisory, so the latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher
to better depict this guidance over the forecast period. In a
couple of days, the vertical wind shear forecasts are more
uncertain, with some shear potentially undercutting the outflow
layer. Thus the forecast is leveled off, with model solutions
ranging from upper-end tropical storm to category 2 hurricane.
Confidence is increasing that the cyclone will undergo, at the very
least, gradual strengthening during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 11.4N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 11.3N 154.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 11.3N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 11.3N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 11.3N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 11.4N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 11.7N 165.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 12.8N 171.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Blake

Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 062055
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest
CP95) that we have been monitoring for several days has developed a
well-defined circulation, showing banded convection around its
center. While the most recent constrained subject Dvorak analysis
from HFO was CI number was 2.0/30 kt, the Data T was 3.0/45 kt,
which probably better reflects the system's organization. A 1546 UTC
SMOS microwave pass supports that assessment, showing winds above
tropical-storm-force east of the center. Based on this, advisories
have been initiated on Tropical Storm Pena, with an intensity of 40
kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, and
the storm is expected to continue this motion for the next several
days due to a high pressure ridge centered over the Central Pacific.
Model guidance remains in good agreement through 72 h on Pena's
track, then cross-track spread increases among the model solutions,
resulting in lower-than-normal confidence. Additionally, the storm's
initial representation in much of the guidance is too weak, which
adds another layer of uncertainty. The NHC track forecast has been
set to follow the GDMI and HCCA aids.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the overall environment
generally seems conducive to strengthening for at least the next day
or so. While there is an increase in shear in much of the models
this weekend, this shear could abate early next week, with no
obvious dry air or instability issues seen in the large-scale
guidance. It is a little puzzling why many of the models show little
change or even a weakening so quickly in seemingly conducive
conditions, though perhaps it is linked to the unrealistically weak
initial vortex representation of Pena. The first forecast is on the
higher side of the guidance and reflects a blend of some aids that
get close to hurricane-strength, while others weaken to a
depression. It probably goes without saying that this too is an
uncertain prediction, similar to the track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.3N 150.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake

Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 062055
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 150.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 150.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 149.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 150.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 062055
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PENA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI NOV 06 2026

...TROPICAL STORM PENA FORMS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT IS NO THREAT TO LAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 150.1W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.1 WEST. PENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE=

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