Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for THREE-C-26 Off-shore from 25 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC to 26 Oct 2026 09:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for THREE-C-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

26/10 08:32 WTPA43PHFO260831

26/10 08:31 WTPA33PHFO260830

26/10 08:31 WTPA23PHFO260830

26/10 04:20 WTNT82EGRR260419

26/10 02:33 WTPA43PHFO260232

26/10 02:32 WTPA33PHFO260231

26/10 02:32 WTPA23PHFO260231

25/10 20:37 WTPA43PHFO252035

25/10 20:35 WTPA23PHFO252034

25/10 20:35 WTPA33PHFO252034

25/10 16:22 WTNT82EGRR251621

25/10 14:54 WTPA43PHFO251453

25/10 14:51 WTPA33PHFO251450

25/10 14:50 WTPA23PHFO251449

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 260831
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

Olana continues to produce deep convection with cold cloud tops
near -80C near and to the northeast of the low-level center, as
southwesterly wind shear begins to increase. The overall convective
pattern has not changed significantly, and the convective shield has
remained in a fairly steady state over the past several hours. The
latest subjective and objective intensity values range between
28-35 kt. Using these estimates and steady satellite appearance,
the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, although
that could be generous.

The system is forecast to move into even stronger southwesterly
vertical wind shear which, coupled with dry air entrainment, should
induce a weakening trend. Given the increasingly hostile
environmental conditions along the forecast track, the official
forecast shows Olana degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and
dissipating into an elongated trough by day 3. The official
intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance in the
short term before trending toward the latest consensus aids through
the remainder of the forecast period.

The initial motion is eastward, or 095/6 kt. A generally
eastward track is expected during the next couple of days as the
cyclone is steered by the flow along the southern periphery of
a trough. The official track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, but just slightly slower. Based on the latest guidance,
Olana is expected to dissipate prior to reaching Johnston Atoll.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 14.9N 176.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 14.6N 175.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 14.4N 174.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 14.4N 174.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z 14.8N 173.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1800Z 15.3N 172.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 260830
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLANA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 25 2026

...OLANA HOLDING STEADY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 176.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 176.6 WEST. OLANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND A GENERAL EASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND OLANA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 260830
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM OLANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON OCT 26 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 176.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 176.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 176.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.6N 175.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 174.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 174.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 173.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.3N 172.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 176.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 260419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.10.2026

TROPICAL STORM VANCE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 104.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2026 0 15.2N 104.8W 995 52
1200UTC 26.10.2026 12 15.2N 105.7W 999 55
0000UTC 27.10.2026 24 15.9N 107.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 27.10.2026 36 16.8N 108.1W 1003 31
0000UTC 28.10.2026 48 19.2N 108.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 28.10.2026 60 21.7N 108.8W 1002 37
0000UTC 29.10.2026 72 23.8N 107.5W 995 52
1200UTC 29.10.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OLANA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 178.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2026 0 14.8N 178.0W 1005 26
1200UTC 26.10.2026 12 13.9N 176.7W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.10.2026 24 13.3N 175.9W 1005 21
1200UTC 27.10.2026 36 13.0N 174.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 28.10.2026 48 13.8N 173.4W 1005 23
1200UTC 28.10.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.2N 168.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.10.2026 84 16.2N 168.6W 1005 23
0000UTC 30.10.2026 96 18.0N 166.6W 1003 27
1200UTC 30.10.2026 108 21.0N 166.5W 1002 36
0000UTC 31.10.2026 120 23.4N 166.8W 997 40
1200UTC 31.10.2026 132 25.0N 168.5W 993 44
0000UTC 01.11.2026 144 24.1N 168.3W 988 52
1200UTC 01.11.2026 156 24.3N 165.4W 992 40
0000UTC 02.11.2026 168 26.7N 164.9W 993 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 31.2N 61.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2026 96 31.2N 61.2W 1014 36
1200UTC 30.10.2026 108 32.3N 59.5W 1013 32
0000UTC 31.10.2026 120 33.0N 57.0W 1011 40
1200UTC 31.10.2026 132 33.7N 50.3W 1011 41
0000UTC 01.11.2026 144 34.9N 46.0W 1003 42
1200UTC 01.11.2026 156 37.6N 40.5W 998 43
0000UTC 02.11.2026 168 41.3N 36.0W 981 58

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260419

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 260232
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

There have not been any significant changes with Olana over the
past several hours. The storm continues to produce a relatively
concentrated area of deep convection near and to the northeast of
the center and in a broken band well southeast of the center. The
storm has a sheared and ragged appearance in satellite images,
likely due to the influence of an approaching mid- to upper-level
trough. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, based on the
various objective and subjective satellite estimates.

Olana could strengthen a little in the short term, but a notable
increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry
air should cause weakening to begin on Monday. Given the expected
hostile conditions and latest model guidance, Olana is now expected
to become a remnant low by 48 hours and degenerate into an
elongated trough by midweek. This forecast lies near the high end
of the model guidance in the short term, but then falls in line
with the bulk of the models after that.

The storm is moving east-northeastward at about 8 kt. The models
show Olana generally tracking eastward over the next few days, but
in an erratic fashion as it moves along the base of a broad
deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and is based on a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
Based on the latest forecast, Olana should dissipate before it
reaches Johnston Atoll.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 14.9N 177.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 14.7N 176.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 14.2N 175.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 14.0N 174.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 14.6N 173.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 15.3N 172.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 260231
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLANA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SUN OCT 25 2026

...OLANA HOLDING STEADY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 177.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM WSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 177.3 WEST. OLANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND A GENERAL
EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. OLANA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 260231
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM OLANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 177.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 177.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 177.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.7N 176.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.2N 175.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 174.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.6N 173.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.3N 172.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 177.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 252035
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

Since the prior advisory, convective activity has continued to
expand near and to the northeast of the estimated center of the
tropical cyclone, with first light visible imagery indicating that
the center is likely embedded in this mass of deep convection. A
helpful WSF-M pass at 18 UTC also showed further organization, with
a curved band on its northwest flank, though some northeast tilt
with height is also noted between the 37 GHz and 89 GHz channels.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt
from JTWC and T2.0/30 kt from HFO. However, the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, and given the
improvement seen on satellite and microwave imagery since the prior
advisory, the initial intensity is set on the higher side of the
intensity estimates at 35 kt, making the depression Tropical Storm
Olana.

Olana is estimated to be moving a bit faster to the east-northeast
this morning, or 075/7 kt. The track reasoning is the same as this
morning, with the combination of a low-level westerly wind burst to
the south and a mid-latitude trough to the northwest expected to
maintain the tropical storm on a general eastward track. The track
guidance this cycle has shifted slower compared to the previous
advisory, as the circulation becomes more vertically shallow, and
the NHC track was also made slower than the previous forecast. The
latest track forecast is on the northern side of the guidance
envelope, favoring a blend of the faster HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA) and slower ECMWF (EMXI) track guidance. Based on the
latest track forecast, no watches are required for Johnston Atoll at
this time, though interests there should continue to monitor the
latest forecast updates related to this system.

There remains a small window for Olana to intensify a bit more in
the short-term given its current structure, though the noted tilt
with height seen on the WSF-M microwave pass is likely a harbinger
of stronger vertical wind shear that the tropical cyclone will soon
begin to experience. While both the GFS and EC-based SHIPS guidance
are only forecasting 10-15 kt of deep-layer (200-850 mb) westerly
shear over the next 12-36 h, the adjusted shear is much higher,
suggesting higher shear undercutting the outflow layer. Weakening is
expected to begin in 12-24 h, and this will likely be hastened when
the deep-layer shear increases above 30 kt in 48-60 h. Both the GFS
and ECMWF simulated IR show the remaining convection being fully
stripped away from Olana's circulation during this period. Thus, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Olana becoming a remnant low by 60 h,
with the low opening up into a trough after 72 h, though the global
models suggest the circulation could become too elongated to be
considered well-defined earlier than shown here.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 14.8N 178.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 14.9N 177.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 14.4N 176.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.1N 175.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.3N 173.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 15.0N 172.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 15.6N 172.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 252034
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM OLANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.9N 177.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.4N 176.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 175.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 173.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.0N 172.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.6N 172.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 178.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 252034
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLANA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 25 2026

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OLANA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 178.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 178.0 WEST. OLANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND A GENERAL
EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.10.2026

HURRICANE VANCE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 103.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.10.2026 0 14.6N 103.9W 988 56
0000UTC 26.10.2026 12 15.0N 105.4W 996 54
1200UTC 26.10.2026 24 14.7N 106.6W 1000 41
0000UTC 27.10.2026 36 14.9N 108.4W 1002 31
1200UTC 27.10.2026 48 15.6N 108.7W 1003 30
0000UTC 28.10.2026 60 17.6N 108.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 28.10.2026 72 20.4N 109.4W 1001 37
0000UTC 29.10.2026 84 23.8N 108.3W 994 51
1200UTC 29.10.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03C ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 179.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.10.2026 0 14.6N 179.9W 1008 25
0000UTC 26.10.2026 12 14.6N 178.4W 1006 26
1200UTC 26.10.2026 24 13.4N 177.4W 1006 22
0000UTC 27.10.2026 36 13.1N 175.9W 1005 22
1200UTC 27.10.2026 48 12.9N 174.8W 1006 22
0000UTC 28.10.2026 60 13.3N 174.2W 1006 22
1200UTC 28.10.2026 72 13.8N 173.1W 1007 23
0000UTC 29.10.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.6N 66.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.10.2026 0 28.6N 66.6W 1008 38
0000UTC 26.10.2026 12 30.1N 65.7W 1010 36
1200UTC 26.10.2026 24 33.0N 64.6W 1010 33
0000UTC 27.10.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 17.0N 169.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2026 108 17.9N 168.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.10.2026 120 19.0N 169.7W 1005 34
0000UTC 31.10.2026 132 20.6N 170.8W 999 36
1200UTC 31.10.2026 144 21.8N 172.6W 998 41
0000UTC 01.11.2026 156 21.5N 174.0W 996 45
1200UTC 01.11.2026 168 20.5N 175.5W 1000 40

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251621

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 251453
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Three-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

The system we have been monitoring near the International Date Line
that was recently designated CP94 has become better organized early
this morning. Showers and thunderstorm activity began to show signs
of organization late yesterday, and an overnight scatterometer pass
indicated that a small but well-defined circulation had formed. In
addition, there was a WSF-M microwave pass at 0532 UTC, which
showed curved bands were present on the 37-GHz channel, especially
on the northern semi-circle of the system. Since that time,
Himawari-9 and GOES-18 satellite imagery shows the system exhibiting
a bursting convective pattern close to or just to the north of the
estimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both JTWC and
Honolulu were T1.5/25 kt. However, the earlier scatterometer pass
also showed a peak wind retrieval of 32 kt. Based on the system's
structural improvement on satellite imagery overnight, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Three-C at this time. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, though this could be conservative
given the earlier scatterometer data.

The depression's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 075/6 kt.
The system is currently embedded in deep-layer westerly flow, both
from an equatorward low-level westerly wind burst, and an
upper-level westerly flow from an approaching short-wave trough to
the north of the depression. These combined features should maintain
the system on an eastward track for the next several days. The
initial NHC track forecast blends the latest global model guidance
from the GFS and ECMWF solutions. This track will take the tropical
cyclone as a weakening system near Johnson Atoll in about 60-72 h.
It is worth noting there is a lot of spread in the along-track
direction, likely related to uncertainty in the vertical steering
depth the system will feel over the next few days, so this first
track forecast is a little lower confidence than usual.

The depression could already be close to tropical storm intensity
given the earlier scatterometer data, and environmental conditions
appear mostly favorable for the next 12-24 h with deep-layer shear
in the 5-15 kt range with plenty of warm water and deep-layer
moisture. However, the approaching mid-latitude trough to its north
is expected to soon increase the westerly shear over the system,
likely limiting the intensity of the tropical cyclone. Thus, only
some slight intensification is shown over the next 12-24 h, with the
storm plateauing as a 35 kt tropical storm through the early part of
this week. By mid-week, SHIPS guidance shows this westerly shear
increasing above 40 kt, and most of the guidance responds by showing
the system quickly becoming separated from its deep convection as
the circulation becomes increasingly elongated. The initial NHC
intensity forecast therefore shows the cyclone degenerating into a
remnant low in about 72 h, and dissipating shortly thereafter. This
forecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance.

Based on the initial track and intensity forecast, no watches are
required for Johnston Atoll at this time, though interests there
should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates related to
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 14.6N 179.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 14.7N 178.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 14.7N 177.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 14.4N 175.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 14.6N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 15.5N 171.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 16.5N 169.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 251450
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN OCT 25 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JUST EAST OF
THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 179.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JOHNSTON ATOLL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 179.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H)
AND A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 251449
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 179.3W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 179.3W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 179.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.7N 178.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.7N 177.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.4N 175.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.6N 173.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 171.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 169.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 179.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

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