Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for JOSEPHINE-26 in United States, Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon on 21 Oct 2026 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for JOSEPHINE-26

in United States, Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

21/10 20:50 WTNT45KNHC212047

21/10 20:48 WTNT35KNHC212046

21/10 20:47 WTNT25KNHC212045

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212047
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have
been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.
Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had
dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.
Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near
and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been
initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial
intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave
ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm
should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough
digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking
the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn
eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good
agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of
the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid
HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or
so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the
north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement
on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back
side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow
weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing
from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global
model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4
days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast
to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect
until the threat diminishes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212046
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Josephine
is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm should
turn northeastward by tomorrow with a large increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the
United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected, though Josephine is
anticipated to remain a subtropical storm through early Thursday.
Further strengthening is likely by late Thursday as Josephine
becomes a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the
northeastern United States coast through Thursday. See products
issued by your local National Weather Service office for more
details.

COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide.
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more information.

SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212045
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 69.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT.......360NE 100SE 130SW 260NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 390SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 69.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 120SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 160SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...350NE 210SE 190SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...410NE 240SE 210SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...340NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 69.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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