Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NINETEEN-E-26
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 291451
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR (FORMER INVEST EP91) HAS HAD ENOUGH ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT,
CONSISTENT WITH AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A DVORAK 2.0
FROM TAFB.

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE CENTER IS
MOSTLY EXPOSED WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE
SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY BEFORE IT FEELS
THE COLD WAKE OF FORMER HURRICANE ODALYS BY TOMORROW. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DRY OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE THE
DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEGENERATE INTO A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE THURSDAY. THE NHC FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION WHILE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH, ENHANCED BY BOTH THE STRONG EL NINO EVENT
AND WESTERN HEMISPHERE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. THE TRACK IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AND LEANS TOWARD THE
HCCA CORRECTED-CONSENSUS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.4N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 14.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 15.0N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 291449
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WELL OFFSHORE
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 131.6W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 131.6
West. The depression is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm later today before
weakening on Wednesday. The system is likely to degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 291448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 131.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 131.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 132.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 130.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.9N 125.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 131.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=