Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for RACHEL-26 in Mexico from 27 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC to 21:00

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for RACHEL-26

in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

27/09 21:43 WTPN34PHNC272200

27/09 20:38 WTPZ43KNHC272036

27/09 20:37 WTPZ33KNHC272036

27/09 20:36 WTPZ23KNHC272035

27/09 14:46 WTPZ43KNHC271444

27/09 14:45 WTPZ33KNHC271444

27/09 14:44 WTPZ23KNHC271443

27/09 08:58 WTPZ43KNHC270855

27/09 08:56 WTPZ33KNHC270854

27/09 08:55 WTPZ23KNHC270854

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (RACHEL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (RACHEL) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 98.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 98.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.1N 99.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.9N 101.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.9N 103.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.8N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.8N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.7N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.7N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.3N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 99.2W.
27SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 18E (RACHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1561
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (ODALYS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

0000503300
00001

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 272036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
300 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026

Recent visible satellite imagery shows that banding features
associated the cyclone remain fragmented, but a couple of ASCAT
passes from just after 1500 UTC revealed an area of 35 kt winds to
the southeast of the center. Therefore, the system has reached
tropical storm status, making Rachel the seventeenth named storm in
the eastern Pacific basin this season.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. A deep-layer
ridge building over Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone
west-northwest at a faster forward speed through mid-week. This
heading should result in the core of the storm passing well south
of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
After 72 hours, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge
over northwestern Mexico as a trough moves into the southwestern
United States. This should cause Rachel to slow, but remain on a
northwestward to west-northwestward track when it is located well
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
typically reliable consensus aids.

The SHIPS model continues to diagnose about 20 kt of northeasterly
shear over the system. The shear does not appear to be prohibitive
for strengthening. In fact, most of the intensity guidance calls
for gradual strengthening during the next couple few days, and
Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. After that
time, there is uncertainty with regards to SSTs as Rachel may track
over the cool wake from Hurricane Polo. As a result, the NHC
intensity forecast plateaus near the end of the forecast period
between the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 12.6N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 13.1N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.9N 101.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 14.9N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 15.8N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 17.7N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 18.7N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 272036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
300 PM CST SUN SEP 27 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 99.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A FASTER
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 272035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 99.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 99.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 98.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.1N 99.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.9N 101.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 103.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.8N 105.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.7N 107.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.7N 108.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 99.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 271444
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
900 AM CST Sun Sep 27 2026

Deep convection is gradually becoming better organized in
association with the depression. There is evidence of banding over
the northern and western portions of the circulation, although
there appears to be some easterly shear over the system. TAFB
provided a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt and objective
estimates are in the 30-35 kt range. Given the fragmented nature
of the convective banding, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.
A very recent arriving WSF-M microwave overpass was very helpful
in locating the center, which was a little north of the previous
estimate.

The initial motion appears to be 295/4 kt, a little slower than
estimated in the first advisory. The depression is forecast to
move faster toward the west-northwest, to the south of a
deep-layer ridge over Mexico during the next several days. The
track guidance is in good agreement on the core of the system
staying well south of the coast of southern Mexico, and the NHC
track forecast follows a blend of the GDM consensus aid and the HFIP
corrected consensus. The new track was adjusted slightly north of
the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.

Moderate easterly shear over the system is likely to keep
significant strengthening in check during the next 12 hours, but the
system is likely to become a tropical storm during that time. By
late tonight and Monday, a faster rate of strengthening is expected
as shear decreases and the system moves over warm SSTs. Much of
the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a hurricane in
about 48 hours, and the NHC wind speed forecast follows suit.
Around 72 hours, there is some uncertainty with regards to SSTs
with the track potentially moving over the cool wake of Hurricane
Polo. Therefore, the intensity forecast during that period calls
for the intensity to level off, which is similar to what is shown
by the HFIP corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 12.7N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.0N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 13.7N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.6N 102.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.5N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 17.3N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.7N 109.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.4N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 271444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
900 AM CST SUN SEP 27 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT
REMAINS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 98.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
(7 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND
IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 271443
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 98.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 98.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 98.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.0N 99.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.7N 100.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.6N 102.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.5N 104.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.7N 109.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 98.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270855
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
300 AM CST Sun Sep 27 2026

The tropical disturbance located south of Mexico, formerly Invest
90E, has become better organized based on satellite imagery over the
last several hours. Scatterometry data from around 0300 UTC depicts
a closed circulation, with the system moving into a favorable
environment for further development. Subjective Dvorak
intensity analysis from TAFB also rated the system at 2.0/30 kt.
Therefore, advisories have begun for Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E.

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain since the cyclone has only
recently formed, but the motion estimate is around 285/9 kt. Track
guidance is in good agreement on steering this system generally to
the west-northwest over the next several days, with an increase in
forward speed as it runs south of a mid-level high over Mexico. The
current NHC track forecast generally falls within the middle of the
guidance envelope, favoring HCCA in particular.

SHIPS guidance suggests that vertical wind shear may be an
inhibiting factor for development for the first 24 h, before the
Depression is expected to gradually strengthen as SSTs remain warm
and mid-level moisture appears favorable. There is some uncertainty
with regards to SSTs due to colder waters potentially being churned
up in the wake of Hurricane Polo, so the current intensity forecast
is a little conservative at first, before depicting gradual
strengthening through the late weekend onward. This still falls
around the median of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.2N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 12.7N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 13.2N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 13.8N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 14.7N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 15.7N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 16.9N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 18.7N 109.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 19.7N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270854
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
300 AM CST SUN SEP 27 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 99.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270854
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 98.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.7N 99.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.2N 100.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 18.7N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 99.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PASCH=

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