Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for POLO-26 in Mexico from 21 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC to 21:00

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for POLO-26

in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

21/09 23:41 WTPZ32KNHC212339

21/09 20:53 WTPZ42KNHC212052

21/09 20:52 WTPZ32KNHC212050

21/09 20:50 WTPZ22KNHC212049

21/09 17:54 WTPZ32KNHC211752

21/09 14:55 WTPZ42KNHC211453

21/09 14:54 WTPZ32KNHC211452

21/09 14:52 WTPZ22KNHC211451

21/09 11:56 WTPZ32KNHC211154

21/09 08:50 WTPZ42KNHC210848

21/09 08:44 WTPZ32KNHC210841

21/09 08:41 WTPZ22KNHC210841

21/09 02:50 WTPZ42KNHC210247

21/09 02:49 WTPZ32KNHC210244

21/09 02:42 WTPZ22KNHC210241

20/09 21:00 WTPZ42KNHC202058

20/09 20:56 WTPZ22KNHC202056

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212339
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected
to continue tonight, with a sharp turn towards the northwest and
west-northwest anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or south of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane on
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 212052
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Satellite images show that Polo has a ragged eye on both visible
and infrared images, with very deep convection starting to wrap
around a broken eyewall. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
been providing valuable data that show the cyclone undergoing an
early-stage eyewall cycle, with two wind maxes on the TDR radar.
The plane recently reported 0.5 km winds up to 92 kt, with
higher winds and lower central pressure on each fix, dropping about
1 mb per hour. These winds convert to roughly 75 kt at the
surface, and that will be the initial wind speed this advisory.

While the current eyewall replacement could slightly hinder
intensification, the last aircraft pass through Polo already showed
that the old inner eyewall was fading. Thus, given the very warm
waters, light shear and moist environment, a high-end rapid
intensification event is expected. The latest model guidance are
even higher than the last cycle, and the new NHC intensity forecast
follows the trend, but is still below the NOAA HCCA corrected-
consensus aid. An increase in easterly wind shear could cause some
weakening in the medium-range period, though Polo should be a small
and powerful hurricane throughout the forecast period.

The storm is drifting east-southeastward and should move in that
general direction for about a day before a mid-level ridge
intensifies over Mexico. This ridge should cause the cyclone to
turn sharply towards the northwest and west-northwest on Wednesday
and Thursday, bringing the core of the storm near or south of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Eventually there is enough troughing
over the eastern Pacific to cause the system to bend more
northwestward at long range towards the Baja California peninsula.
The details, however, are pretty sketchy with a potential binary
interaction with Tropical Storm Odalys looming, which is helping to
cause a large north-south spread in the guidance. No big changes
were made to the NHC forecast, but it is a little farther west at
and beyond 72 hours where uncertainty is high.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.1N 102.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.9N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.4N 102.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 102.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.7N 105.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 18.6N 108.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 20.5N 111.2W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212050
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWS POLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.1 North,
longitude 102.7 West. Polo is moving toward the east-southeast near
6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight, with a
sharp turn towards the northwest and west-northwest anticipated
late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core is
Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is expected to continue rapidly
intensifying, becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday, with further
intensification likely though midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 212049
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.9N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.4N 102.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 102.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211752
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 PM CST MON SEP 21 2026

...POLO NOW A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 103.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH (7
KM/H). A SLOW EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY, WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THOUGH MIDWEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES (110 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DROPSONDE DATA IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 211453
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Polo is in the midst of a significant rapid intensification
episode. Satellite images indicate a developing central dense
overcast with very deep convection in the core. Additionally,
microwave images indicate that a small eye has formed beneath the
overcast with hints of a banded eyewall. The initial intensity
is set to 55 kt, consistent with the latest TAFB classification,
and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to provide a better
look at the intensity.

Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next
day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and
untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful
mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by
showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification
index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them.
The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very
aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus
aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for
intensification. Polo is expected to be a small but very dangerous
hurricane by tomorrow and beyond.

The storm is drifting eastward, and still caught in weak steering
currents. A mid-level ridge is expected to develop over Mexico by
late Tuesday, causing Polo to move towards the west-northwest or
northwest by Wednesday into late week. This could bring the core
of the storm near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico on
Thursday, and then south of the Baja California Peninsula on
Saturday. There is a large north-south spread in the guidance,
which has both short and long-range implications. Generally, the
guidance has nudged southward again, and the NHC forecast is
adjusted in that direction. Given the spread in the track
guidance, this is a low-confidence forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 103.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.2N 102.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 102.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.8N 103.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.6N 104.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.6N 107.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 20.3N 110.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211452
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 103.4 West. Polo is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow eastward or
southeastward motion is expected through tonight. However, a sharp
turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be
near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is expected to continue to rapidly
intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon and a major
hurricane on Tuesday, with further intensification likely though
midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 211451
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 102.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.8N 103.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 104.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211154
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.7 West. Polo is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and
tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or
northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is
expected to become a hurricane late today and a major hurricane
by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or
early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall
associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210848
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Deep convection associated with Polo has been gradually increasing
over the past several hours. A recent GMI microwave pass indicates
that Polo is developing a small core, which is an early indication
that significant strengthening could be beginning. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on
that data and an earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is
increased to 40 kt.

Environmental conditions appear very conducive for strengthening
with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 kt,
mid-level humidities near or above 70 percent, and SSTs above 30 C
during the next several days. These conditions, along with Polo's
improving and compact structure, support rapid intensification. In
fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices indicates that there
is a near 90 percent chance of an increase in winds of at least 55
kt over the next 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is quite
aggressive and calls for rapid intensification, and shows Polo
becoming a hurricane later today and a major hurricane on Tuesday.
This prediction is higher than the previous one, but below the
latest HCCA guidance which shows Polo reaching category 5 status in
about 48 hours.

The storm will likely drift eastward or southeastward during the
next day or so in weak steering currents. However, a sharp turn to
the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Tuesday when a
mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of Polo. This
pattern should bring the core of the storm near the coast of
southwestern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and then well south
of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday. There is a very large
spread in the model solutions in where, when, and how sharply Polo
makes the turn. The GFS model is on the far south side of the
guidance envelope while the Google DeepMind ensemble mean is on the
northern edge. The NHC track forecast has been nudged northward, and
is in best agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA model. It
should be noted that given the complex steering pattern and model
spread, confidence in the details of the track forecast is quite
low.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo will impact
coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.5N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.5N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.3N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.3N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.9N 102.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 16.6N 103.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 17.5N 104.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.7N 106.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 19.8N 109.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 103.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 103.8 West. Polo is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and
tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or
northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is
expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane
in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or
early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall
associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 102.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.6N 103.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210247
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026

After a brief hiccup in the convective structure on satellite
imagery this evening, several convective bursts have formed close
to the estimated center of circulation. Earlier microwave images
showed a decent low-level structure, though there was some
eastward tilt with height. The 00 UTC Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB was up to T3.0/45 kt, but the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS were lower in the 29-39 kt range. Still,
these values are enough support to increase the winds to 35 kt,
making the depression Tropical Storm Polo.

It remains tricky to find the center this evening, but my best guess
is that the center is close to the ongoing convective burst and is
estimated to be moving east-northeastward or 075 degrees at 4 kt.
Over the next 24-36 h, Polo will likely be influenced by the
steering of low- to mid-level ridging south of the cyclone, with
most of the track guidance showing a slow eastward or
east-southeastward motion on Monday. On Tuesday, mid-level ridging
over Texas and Mexico is forecast to build in, and the track
guidance responds to this change by showing a sharp, hairpin turn to
the northwest that continues through the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast is close to the prior one, though
shows a bit of a sharper turn in 48-60 h, and is a little to the
south and west thereafter. This track forecast roughly splits the
difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. It is worth
noting some of the hurricane-regional models are further east, and
short-term trends will be monitored in the guidance over the next
day or so to see if any eastward adjustments are needed. Towards the
end of the forecast, it is possible Polo may get close enough to the
circulation of Odalys to interact, and there is significant track
uncertainty in 5 days.

Intensity-wise there appear to be few impediments in Polo's
forecast, with low shear under 10 kt, very warm 31 C sea-surface
temperatures, and abundant deep-layer moisture. While it may take
another 12 h or so for Polo to develop an inner core, its possible
the ongoing convective burst near the center is already initiating
that process. The intensity guidance is rather aggressive, with all
of the hurricane-regional models showing various degrees of rapid
intensification over the next 2-3 days in addition to the HCCA and
GDMI guidance. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast will also show rapid
intensification in the 24-60 h period, and now shows Polo becoming a
Category 4 hurricane in 72 h. Remarkably, this is still under the
latest HCCA and GDMI intensity in that time frame and its possible
future upward intensity adjustments will be needed. Thereafter,
inner-core fluctuations will likely govern the intensity of Polo in
the 3-5 day time frame, but Polo is still likely to be a major
hurricane through the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo will impact
coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

2. Tropical Storm Polo is forecast to strengthen and move closer to
the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later this week.
Although it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude
of impacts associated with the system, interests in Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.1N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.4N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 15.4N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 15.2N 102.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 18.2N 106.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210244
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM POLO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 104.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 104.6 West. Polo is now
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a decrease in forward
speed and a sharp turn toward the north and northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next
few days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane by the
middle part of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacn, Colima,
and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 103.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.4N 103.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 102.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 202058
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026

The tropical disturbance to the south of Mexico, formerly Invest
99E, has become better organized with some convective banding
features over its eastern semicircle. Although a recent
scatterometer pass missed the circulation, low cloud motions
indicate that the system now has enough of a low-level circulation
to qualify as a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30
kt this advisory.

The center has been difficult to track so far so the initial motion
is a rather uncertain 030/7 kt. According to the majority of the
track guidance, the system is likely to turn eastward within the
next 12 to 24 hours. This motion is apparently due to the system
being embedded within a broader cyclonic gyre near the southern
coast of Mexico. Later in the forecast period, the system is
expected to turn toward the northwest and move on the southern side
of a mid-level high. The official forecast is near the northern
side of the track guidance model envelope.

The depression should be situated within an environment that is
conducive for strengthening during the next few days, with very
light vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus and
shows the system becoming a hurricane in 36 h. It should be noted
that the Google DeepMind and HCCA guidance call for even faster
strengthening than shown in this initial forecast.

Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 17-E will
impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.

2. Tropical Depression 17-E is forecast to strengthen and move
closer to the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later
this week. Although it is too soon to determine the exact location
or magnitude of impacts associated with the system, interest in
Mexico should closely monitor its progress and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.9N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 202056
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

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