Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 272200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 032B CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 032B CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 22.7N 123.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 123.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.9N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.5N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 123.1W.
27SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 16E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 271800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS
14 FEET.
REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (RACHEL) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM CLASSIFICATION.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 272038
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026

ODALYS HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS, AND
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ALL DAY. THEREFORE,
ODALYS NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THIS
IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS FROM A
FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT, AND BASED ON
THAT DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.

STRONG WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING WHILE THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWARD OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY 72 HOURS, IN
AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND HURRICANE POLO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.8N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/0600Z 22.9N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 21.3N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 20.2N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z 19.5N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 272037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...ODALYS IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.1W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys
was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 6
mph (9 km/h). The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow northeastward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the south or
south-southwest.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the
next couple of days, and this system is expected to dissipate by
the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 272037
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.3N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 271444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026

...ODALYS QUICKLY SPINNING DOWN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
MONDAY EVENING, ODALYS SHOULD TURN ABRUPTLY SOUTHWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND ODALYS SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 271445
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026

A FORTUITOUS 1038 UTC NOAA-20 VISIBLE INFRARED IMAGING RADIOMETER
SUITE (VIIRS) LUNAR CALIBRATION IMAGE INDICATED THAT ODALYS IS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN NOTED EARLIER. THE VERTICALLY SHALLOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY BECOMING DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
A SMALL PATCH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE
CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES AND
THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 50 KT.

ODALYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN QUICKLY WHILE MOVING WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY INHIBITING SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. SUBSEQUENTLY,
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT, AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON
MONDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE SKILLED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ODALYS
SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW, AND THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND AGREES WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 005/5 KT.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, AND THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON MONDAY, A SEVERELY SHEARED, VERTICALLY TILTED ODALYS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHARPLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PRODUCED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE HFIP HCCA AND GDMI GUIDANCE.

ODALYS' WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON 0455 UTC METOP-C AND
A 0433 UTC METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.6N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.0N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 28/1200Z 22.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 20.6N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z 19.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 271444
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 123.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.8N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.6N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.6N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 270855
TCDEP1

Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Odalys remains a low-end Category 1 hurricane, but continues to
rapidly weaken. The system's overall convective structure has
degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast, with
cloud-top temperatures ranging between -65°C and -70°C just north of
the center. The latest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was
4.5/77 kt, but the final T-number was 3.5/55 kt, which aligns better
with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging between
53 and 65 kt, further suggesting Odalys' weakening trend. Based on a
blend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.
The ASCAT from around 0435Z still had 57 kt vectors, and given the
low bias of ASCAT at those wind speeds, this supports keeping
Odalys a hurricane for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward at 360/7 kt. Little
change has been made to the track reasoning, as Odalys is expected
to continue northward while a deep-layer trough steers the
vertically coherent cyclone. Once the system decouples, motion is
forecast to turn abruptly south-southeastward in 24 to 36 hours
under the steering influence of a low-level ridge positioned to the
northwest. The latest track guidance from the HCCA and GDMI ensemble
consensus aids demonstrates a sharper turn southeastward, and the
updated NHC track forecast reflects this while closely following the
previous advisory.

Over the next few days, Odalys will face an increasingly hostile
environment marked by persistent vertical wind shear, dry
surrounding air, and significantly cooler ocean temperatures. As a
result, rapid weakening is expected throughout the forecast period.
Both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite models indicate Odalys
will transition to a post-tropical cyclone as early as 24 hours.

Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be
transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend
and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy
rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.4N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 28/1800Z 22.0N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0600Z 21.0N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 19.9N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 19.1N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 270853
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026

...ODALYS RAPIDLY LOSING STRENGTH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 123.4W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND ODALYS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 270852
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 123.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 123.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.0N 122.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.9N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.1N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 270254
TCDEP1

Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Odalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts that
the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an
irregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of the
deeper convection displaced north of the center. This is clear
evidence of strong vertical wind shear undercutting the outflow
layer. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB came in at
T4.5/77 kt, but objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue
to fall, ranging from 63–66 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt, which may still be generous.

Initial motion is estimated due north at 360/6 kt. Little change has
been made to the track reasoning. Odalys is expected to continue
northward as a deep-layer trough steers the vertically coherent
cyclone. Once the system decouples, motion should turn abruptly
south-southeastward in 24 to 36 h under the steering influence of a
low-level ridge positioned to the northwest. The updated NHC track
forecast closely tracks the previous advisory, aligned with the HCCA
and GDMI ensemble consensus aids.

Over the next few days, Odalys will encounter an increasingly
hostile environment, as the strong vertical wind shear is unlikely
to abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by an abundance
of dry air while traversing through significantly cooler sea
surface temperatures. This will ultimately result in Odalys rapidly
weakening throughout the forecast period, becoming a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 h, if not sooner, as indicated by the latest
simulated satellite forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF runs.

Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be
transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend
and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy
rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 123.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.3N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 20.1N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 19.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 270252
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...ODALYS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 123.6W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a general northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to continue through this
evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next several
days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 270252
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.1N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 262034
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026

ODALYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ON SATELLITE THE
HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN IRREGULARLY SHAPED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER, WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED ABOVE 35 KT
FROM THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. A WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE AVAILABLE
AFTER THE PRIOR ADVISORY ALSO NO LONGER SHOWS AN EYEWALL ON THE 89
GHZ CHANNEL AS THE STORM BECOMES INCREASINGLY TILTED DOWNSHEAR WITH
HEIGHT. THE 18 UTC TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS STILL A CI
5.0/90 KT, BUT THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL,
RANGING FROM 63-78 KT. A BLEND OF THE DATA YIELDS AN INTENSITY OF
80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ABATE, AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY SURROUNDED BY
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS IT ALSO MOVES TOWARDS COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THUS, CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECASTED, AND THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL INDICATES ODALYS BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 48 H. HOWEVER, THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER THAN
FORECAST, AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE FORECAST
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.

THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH, ESTIMATED AT
5 DEGREES AT 6 KT. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE TRACK REASONING,
WITH ODALYS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH HAS THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON ITS MOTION AS IT REMAINS
VERTICALLY COHERENT. WHEN THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES VERTICALLY, THIS
MOTION SHOULD ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN 24-48 H AS
THE NOW SHALLOW CYCLONE WILL BE MAINLY STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ONE, CONTINUING TO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) GUIDANCE.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.5N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.3N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 20.7N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 18.2N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 262033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...ODALYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 123.6W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a general northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the
remainder of the day, followed by a sharp turn to the
south-southeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next several days, and
Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 262032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 123.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 123.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 123.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 18.2N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 261446
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026

THE STRUCTURE OF ODALYS THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY GOING
DOWNHILL. THE SMALL EYE THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE
IS NO LONGER SEEN ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EARLIER
AMSR3 MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWED THE INNER CORE HAS DEGRADED AS
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES, NOW DIAGNOSED AT 32
KT BY UW-CIMSS. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WITH THE ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR, ODALYS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE DECOUPLING IN THE NEXT 24-36 H AS SHEAR
IMPORTS NEARBY DRY AIR IS INTO THE CIRCULATION'S CORE. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED QUITE A BIT FORM THE PREVIOUS ONE,
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY, BUT ALSO WITH THE
EXPECTATION THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY SUCCUMB TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW SHOWS ODALYS
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 48 H AND DISSIPATING BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION
AT 360 DEGREE AT 6 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12-24 H, THOUGH AS THE
THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES AND BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW IT SHOULD TURN
SHARPLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTH AS IT BECOMES MORE
INFLUENCED BY BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT WAS ALSO
SHIFTED WESTWARD AFTER ODALYS BECOME A REMNANT LOW, FOLLOWING THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) GUIDANCE.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.8N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.7N 123.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 21.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 19.0N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 261442
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...ODALYS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 123.7W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 123.7 West. Odalys is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through today, followed by a sharp turn toward the east
and then south-southeast by early next.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next
several days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical
cyclone by early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 261441
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.7N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 260839
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026

ODALYS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE HURRICANE'S EYE HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO), THOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 0515 UTC METOP-C
SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 5.5/102 KT, BUT THE
FINAL-T NUMBER WAS 5.0/90 KT. THIS GENERALLY ALIGNS WITH MOST
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM
98 TO 106 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 355/4 KT, AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ODALYS IS ANTICIPATED TO
ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE RELIABLE HCCA CONSENSUS AID,
NUDGING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO THE SHARP EASTERLY TURN, AND
REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS ODALYS SLOWLY MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED LATER THIS
WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS
DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 60 H, A TREND SUPPORTED
BY SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.1N 123.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.9N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 21.8N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 22.1N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 21.6N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 18.5N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 16.4N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 260838
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026

...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 123.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. AN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODALYS IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB (28.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 260837
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 123.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 123.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.8N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.1N 122.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 122.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.4N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 260253
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026

ODALYS REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE, THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE EYE OF ODALYS REMAINS
RAGGED, EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AROUND -70 TO -75 C. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY CI
NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 6.0/115 KT BUT THE FINAL-T NUMBER WAS 5.5/102
KT. THIS GENERALLY ALIGNS WITH MOST UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 98 TO 106 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 010/4 KT,
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ODALYS IS ANTICIPATED TO ABRUPTLY TURN
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE HCCA AID, PULLS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF THE SHARP, EASTERLY TURN, AND MIRRORS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OVER THE WEEKEND, ODALYS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, MARKED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 60 H BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 18.8N 123.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 19.3N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 260252
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...ODALYS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 123.6W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast
on Sunday. An eastward to southeastward motion is forecast early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight
and continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 260251
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 123.6W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 123.6W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 252036
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ODALYS IS STILL A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE,
THOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
EARLIER TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE OF ODALYS IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -65 TO -75 DEG C. EARLIER
WSF-M PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 1437 UTC SHOWED A CLOSED RING
IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL, WHILE THE 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATED THE
MID-LEVEL EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS A 5.5/6.0, WHILE RECENT AIDT, D-MINT,
AND D-PRINT ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 105 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO
110 KT. THE WIND RADII FOR ODALYS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
RCM-1 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR DATA.

ODALYS IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (030/4 KT) WITHIN THE
FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY MONDAY, ODALYS IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS
THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARPER TURN THAN
THE PREVIOUS CYCLE IN THE 60-96 H TIME FRAME, AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. OVERALL, THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SKILLFUL HCCA AID.

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE ODALYS' FORECAST TRACK SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
OVER COOLER WATERS BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ODALYS LIKELY TO LOSE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48-60 H. THE
UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE HCCA AND IVCN
MULTI-MODEL AIDS.

DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.3N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1800Z 21.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 19.9N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 252035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026

...MAJOR HURRICANE ODALYS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 123.6W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A NORTHWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. AN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODALYS IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB (28.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 252034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 123.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 123.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 123.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 123.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.9N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 251446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ODALYS HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 123.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 123.7 West. Odalys is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), with a turn
to the north expected to occur over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Odalys is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are possible
through this evening. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to
commence over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 251447
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026

ODALYS HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING, AND THE CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A 30 NMI 5 DEG C IRREGULAR EYE
WITH INNER CORE CONVECTION CLOUD TOPS OF -80 DEG C. THE WIND
PATTERN ALOFT HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH APPARENT DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY TECHNIQUES SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115
KT.

OVER THE WEEKEND, ODALYS SHOULD ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY
INHIBITING SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING
OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. ACCORDINGLY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, LOSE ITS ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND, AND BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BUMPED SLIGHTLY UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PERIOD, AND IS JUST ABOVE THE HFIP HCCA AND NEAR
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR
030/5 KT. BY EARLY SATURDAY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD,
MOVING IN THE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY AN AMPLIFYING
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM HURRICANE POLO'S HORIZONTAL WIND FIELD
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN EASTWARD WHILE THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BY DAY 4, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF
POLO AND REDUCE IN FORWARD SPEED. VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO
THE BETTER-PERFORMING HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.

MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.4N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.1N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 22.8N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 18.8N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 251446
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 123.7W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 123.7W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.1N 123.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.8N 122.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.8N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251200 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 021A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 021A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 124.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 124.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.0N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.9N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.5N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.7N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.2N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 123.9W.
25SEP26. HURRICANE 16E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 999 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS
962 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE
17E (POLO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: REFLECTS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHANGES FROM THE NHC SPECIAL ADVISORY.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 251143
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026

RECENT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODALYS HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, RANGING FROM 115-124 KT.
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, AND A BLEND OF THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.

THERE WERE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 251142
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Special Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...ODALYS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 123.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Odalys was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 123.9 West. Odalys is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), with a turn
to the north expected to occur over the next couple of days.

Recent satelllite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Odalys is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Further strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual
weakening trend is expected over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 251142
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1200 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 123.9W AT 25/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 123.9W AT 25/1200Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 250856
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026

ODALYS'S EYE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS ESTIMATES ODALYS'S STRENGTH TO
BE AROUND 100 KT, WHILE TAFB'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS RATED THE STORM
AT 5.5/102 KT. GIVEN ODALYS'S IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, OR AT 040/5 KT.
ODALYS'S TRAJECTORY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST, WHICH, COMBINED WITH ITS
LOCATION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE EAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH,
SHOULD DRIVE AN ALMOST DUE NORTH MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN
TRACK AFTER 48 H AS ODALYS'S FORWARD MOTION DECREASES AND HURRICANE
POLO'S WIND FIELD BECOMES AN INCREASING INFLUENCE. THE OVERALL TREND
ACROSS MODELS, HOWEVER, IS TO TURN ODALYS TO THE NORTH SOONER, SO
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS, FOLLOWING A BLEND OF
HCCA AND GDMI AND THUS SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE LEFT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GIVEN ODALYS'S IMPROVED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LEFT RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE FIRST 24
H. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY THEREAFTER, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, AND COOLER SSTS. AS A
RESULT, A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ODALYS FORECAST TO BECOME POST TROPICAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FALLS IN
LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.6N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 250854
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...ODALYS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 124.0W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 124.0 West. Odalys is moving
toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), with a turn to the north
expected to occur over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. This intensity is expected to persist
overnight, before gradual weakening is forecast heading into the
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 250854
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 250313 CCA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

CORRECTED SPELLING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -80 C MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB CAME IN AT T 5.0/90
KT, WITH UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 85-112 KT. USING A BLEND OF THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 95 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/8
KT. ODALYS IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS NORTHWARD TURN, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DECREASES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, MAKING IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO STEERING
FROM LOWER-LEVEL WINDS WHILE POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE POLO. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AND A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER DAY
3. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST GUIDANCE.

IN THE NEAR TERM, SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ODALYS COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTRUSION
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER 36 H AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE
WITH THE INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
ALONG WITH DECREASING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS
WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT 72 H BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 21.9N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/0000Z 21.7N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 250254
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

...ODALYS STRENGTHENS AS IT CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 124.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY
THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB (28.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 250255
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -80 C MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB CAME IN AT T 5.0/90
KT, WITH UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 85-112 KT. USING A BLED OF THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 95 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/8
KT. ODALYS IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS NORTHWARD TURN, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DECREASES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, MAKING IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO STEERING
FROM LOWER-LEVEL WINDS WHILE POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE POLO. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AND A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER DAY
3. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST GUIDANCE.

IN THE NEAR TERM, SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ODALYS COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTRUSION
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER 36 H AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE
WITH THE INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
ALONG WITH DECREASING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS
WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT 72 H BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 21.9N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/0000Z 21.7N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 250254
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.2W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.2W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 122.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 122.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.7N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.1N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 124.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 242034
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

THERE ARE HINTS OF A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF ODALYS. A 1735 UTC 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE OF THE HURRICANE
SHOWED A MOSTLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYEWALL, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WAS A
BIT THIN ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE
VARIOUS UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
71-84 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT, IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH RECENT D-MINT AND SATCON ESTIMATES.

ODALYS IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD (060/7 KT) WHILE BEING STEERED
BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WAS A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS
OF THE FORECAST, AND THE NHC PREDICTION WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS CHALLENGING, WITH ODALYS FORECAST
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WHILE WEAKENING AND ALSO POSSIBLY
BEING INFLUENCED BY THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE POLO. THE
MODEL SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES AT 72-120 H, BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL
IS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AND A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AT
DAYS 3-5. THE NHC FORECAST WAS NUDGED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT
THESE TIMES, FALLING IN BETWEEN THE LATEST TVCN AND HCCA AIDS.

IN THE NEAR TERM, SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ODALYS COULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER 36 H,
A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS FORECAST BASED ON AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SHEAR, AS WELL AS DECREASING SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED
FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 H BASED ON
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.8N 124.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 242033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...ODALYS HOLDS STEADY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 124.9W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 124.9 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the
northeast and north is expected on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day
or so, followed by weakening through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 242033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 124.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 124.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 124.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 241453
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

ODALYS HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
CONSISTS OF A -82C CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) LOCATED OVER AN EYE
FEATURE DEPICTED IN A 1132 UTC AMSR-3 MICROWAVE COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE, AND A SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT AND IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

ALTHOUGH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING, INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE IN THE SHORT TERM. BY THE
WEEKEND, ODALYS SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND ODALYS SHOULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
BLENDS THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SKILLED HFIP HCCA
AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND AIDS.

ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR
060/6 KT, AND IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT HAZY AND HURRICANE POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND COULD CAUSE DIRECT INTERACTION COMPLEXITIES
IN THE TRACK OF ODALYS. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASING MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS HOW QUICKLY ODALYS
WEAKENS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY CHALLENGED WHILE BEING STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI
AIDS.

ODALYS' WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0749 UTC OSCAT-3
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 241453
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.5W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.5W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 241448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 125.5W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 241448
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

ODALYS HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
CONSISTS OF A -82C CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) LOCATED OVER AN EYE
FEATURE DEPICTED IN A 1132 UTC AMSR-3 MICROWAVE COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE, AND A SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT AND IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

ALTHOUGH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING, INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE IN THE SHORT TERM. BY THE
WEEKEND, ODALYS SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND ODALYS SHOULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
BLENDS THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SKILLED HFIP HCCA
AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND AIDS.

ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR
060/6 KT, AND IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT HAZY AND HURRICANE POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND COULD CAUSE DIRECT INTERACTION COMPLEXITIES
IN THE TRACK OF ODALYS. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASING MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS HOW QUICKLY ODALYS
WEAKENS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY CHALLENGED WHILE BEING STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI
AIDS.

ODALYS' WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0749 UTC OSCAT-3
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 241447
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.5W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.5W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 240832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

...ODALYS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 126.0W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND LATE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 240832
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ODALYS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -80C REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE INNER CORE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HAVE HELD STEADY AND GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 67 TO 77 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IN ADDITION,
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE WERE HELPFUL IN
REFINING THE INITIAL WIND RADII.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/7
KT. ODALYS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH
AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK
BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO. ADDITIONALLY, AS ODALYS WEAKENS, MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE, AND EXACTLY WHEN IT
BECOMES STEERED BY THE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL, THEN MORE STEADY, WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. SIMULATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION BY 96 H, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AT THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.5N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 21.8N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 240831
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.5N 123.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 240250
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ODALYS HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND -80 C
EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT, SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, NAMELY DMINT AND ADT, AT 78 AND 72 KT,
RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE DEEPER CONVECTION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EASTWARD, OR 85/6 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH. ODALYS IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
BEYOND DAY 3, POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO COMPLICATES
THE TRACK FORECAST OF ODALYS, AND MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ODALYS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24 H, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
INTENSITY MAINTENANCE. THEREAFTER, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, LOWER SSTS, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INDUCE A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND REMAINS ALIGNED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 126.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.8N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 22.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 240249
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...ODALYS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING AN EASTWARD
HEADING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.7W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 126.7 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for
the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast
then north later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 240249
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 126.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 232053
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026

ODALYS' CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS
-90 C. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB CAME IN
AT 4.0/65 KT, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF DMINT AND ADT FROM UW-CIMSS
SHOWED VALUES OF 68 AND 72, RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
DEEPER CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT.

MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES HELPED REFINE THE POSITION FOR
ODALYS, REQUIRING AN AMENDMENT OF THE BEST TRACK A BIT TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 85/6 KT. ODALYS IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTH, ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BEYOND DAY 3, THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED, AND
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO COULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK
OF ODALYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AS THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE IS MUCH
LARGER THAN NORMAL. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE NEXT 48 H, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY. AFTER THAT, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONGER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOWERED SSTS, AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
HCCA AND GDMI, AND ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 232050
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...ODALYS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 127.2W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 127.2 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for
the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the
northeast then north later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 232050
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 127.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 231444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...ODALYS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 127.9W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 127.9 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected
for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward
the northeast then north later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 231445
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026

ODALYS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LIMITED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR NOW, IN AGREEMENT
WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT DPRINT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS ODALYS IS STEERED BY THE FLOW
BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH, ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, IS
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3, THE STEERING PATTERN
BECOMES ILL-DEFINED, AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO
COULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK OF ODALYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND
LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE LATEST DECAY-SHIPS MODEL INPUT, ODALYS WILL BE
EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
SUFFICIENTLY WARM OCEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS AR
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 231444
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 230841
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODALYS HAS RECOVERED FROM THE
EARLIER DRY AIR INTRUSION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WITH A CONVECTIVE SHIELD THAT HAS COLD CLOUD TOPS
NEAR -80 C. IN ADDITION, A RECENT WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE RING AND A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE. A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS
INCREASED TO T4.0/65 KT, AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 68 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION IN THE MICROWAVE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT, MAKING ODALYS A HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 065/8
KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ODALYS IS STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3, THE STEERING PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX, AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE FUTURE TRACK OF ODALYS.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND
LIES NEAR THE PREVIOUS THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RELAXING AS ODALYS
TRAVERSES WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY 48 TO 72
HOURS, WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, SSTS WILL
COOL, AND ODALYS MAY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE POLO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY, AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND GDMI INTENSITY AIDS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL-SIMULATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODALYS WILL SUCCUMB TO A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION, IT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE, WHICH IS NOW SHOWN IN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST AT DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.9N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.5N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 22.3N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 230840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026

...ODALYS STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 128.4W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST. ODALYS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). AN EASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND LATE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 230840
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.5N 122.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.3N 121.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 230420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 35.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2026 0 30.5N 35.7W 1015 28
1200UTC 23.09.2026 12 30.1N 37.7W 1015 27
0000UTC 24.09.2026 24 29.6N 39.5W 1015 24
1200UTC 24.09.2026 36 29.7N 40.9W 1015 25
0000UTC 25.09.2026 48 30.0N 41.8W 1016 27
1200UTC 25.09.2026 60 30.0N 42.6W 1016 27
0000UTC 26.09.2026 72 29.6N 43.6W 1015 26
1200UTC 26.09.2026 84 29.3N 44.5W 1015 26
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 29.1N 45.0W 1016 22
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 28.9N 45.6W 1015 22
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 28.6N 46.1W 1015 21
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 27.9N 47.0W 1015 21
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 27.0N 48.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 26.1N 49.7W 1012 25
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 25.5N 51.5W 1011 27

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 101.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2026 0 14.8N 101.2W 940 96
1200UTC 23.09.2026 12 15.8N 102.0W 936 113
0000UTC 24.09.2026 24 16.5N 103.5W 946 95
1200UTC 24.09.2026 36 16.8N 105.1W 962 83
0000UTC 25.09.2026 48 16.6N 106.9W 956 85
1200UTC 25.09.2026 60 16.4N 108.7W 952 87
0000UTC 26.09.2026 72 16.4N 110.6W 954 86
1200UTC 26.09.2026 84 16.7N 112.1W 961 81
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 17.5N 113.5W 967 65
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 18.8N 114.3W 961 75
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 19.9N 115.2W 960 76
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 20.6N 115.7W 957 79
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 21.0N 116.6W 963 72
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 20.8N 117.8W 973 61
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 20.5N 118.9W 974 62

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 129.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2026 0 15.3N 129.4W 991 47
1200UTC 23.09.2026 12 15.5N 128.0W 987 48
0000UTC 24.09.2026 24 15.8N 126.7W 988 46
1200UTC 24.09.2026 36 16.3N 125.6W 989 44
0000UTC 25.09.2026 48 17.3N 124.3W 990 41
1200UTC 25.09.2026 60 17.9N 123.1W 990 47
0000UTC 26.09.2026 72 18.8N 122.6W 993 42
1200UTC 26.09.2026 84 19.2N 123.0W 995 37
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 20.1N 123.6W 998 32
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 21.2N 124.1W 1001 28
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 21.5N 124.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 21.5N 125.4W 1005 27
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 20.4N 126.4W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 19.2N 127.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.9N 152.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 12 14.1N 154.1W 1003 28
0000UTC 24.09.2026 24 14.7N 155.1W 1001 30
1200UTC 24.09.2026 36 14.6N 156.1W 998 33
0000UTC 25.09.2026 48 14.9N 156.2W 994 38
1200UTC 25.09.2026 60 15.7N 155.8W 990 43
0000UTC 26.09.2026 72 16.2N 155.4W 988 53
1200UTC 26.09.2026 84 16.3N 155.2W 991 49
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 15.9N 155.3W 988 46
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 14.9N 156.2W 985 50
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 14.2N 157.4W 984 59
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 14.1N 158.8W 984 58
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 14.5N 159.3W 983 59
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 15.1N 159.5W 990 46
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 15.4N 158.7W 994 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.8N 22.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 48 12.6N 23.8W 1008 34
1200UTC 25.09.2026 60 14.9N 24.6W 1007 35
0000UTC 26.09.2026 72 15.8N 26.3W 1008 36
1200UTC 26.09.2026 84 17.5N 27.4W 1009 34
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 17.8N 29.1W 1009 33
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 18.2N 30.5W 1010 25
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 18.2N 31.9W 1011 22
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 18.6N 33.0W 1012 21
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 19.2N 34.6W 1011 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 19.1N 35.6W 1011 20
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.0N 73.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2026 72 32.0N 73.0W 999 44
1200UTC 26.09.2026 84 34.4N 70.7W 998 37
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 36.8N 70.2W 997 39
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 38.5N 70.1W 994 39
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 39.8N 69.7W 991 42
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 41.6N 69.2W 993 32
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 43.1N 67.8W 998 30
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 44.2N 66.1W 1002 26
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 44.9N 63.9W 1006 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 99.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2026 96 12.2N 99.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 13.3N 101.8W 1001 33
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 14.1N 103.4W 999 37
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 14.6N 105.2W 995 43
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 15.7N 106.3W 991 48
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 17.2N 108.0W 986 54
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 18.8N 109.0W 979 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 34.3N 18.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 108 34.7N 18.4E 1011 29
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 34.7N 17.6E 1011 28
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 33.2N 17.7E 1012 25
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 32.5N 18.3E 1013 25
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.0N 138.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2026 120 12.0N 138.6W 1004 29
1200UTC 28.09.2026 132 12.5N 137.1W 1004 27
0000UTC 29.09.2026 144 13.3N 135.4W 1003 28
1200UTC 29.09.2026 156 13.9N 134.3W 1002 33
0000UTC 30.09.2026 168 14.2N 132.5W 1000 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230420


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 129.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 129.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.4N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.1N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.9N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.6N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.2N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.5N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 128.9W.
23SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 16E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1240
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 230242
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026

ODALYS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT EARLIER TONIGHT, WHICH DISRUPTED THE DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED CENTER. IN ADDITION, A RECENT SSMIS PASS INDICATED MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR HAD DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WAS DISPLACING THE REMAINING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER, NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CORE OF ODALYS, WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOLING TO BELOW -80 C. THE LATEST TAFB
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 3.5/55 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 53-67 KT. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
8 KT, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM IS GUIDED BY A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH THE FIRST 24 H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION, IS FORECAST BY LATE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES ODALYS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND 72 H, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN, AS A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO COULD
INFLUENCE ODALYS' MOTION WHILE THE MAJOR HURRICANE MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 48 H, TOWARD
THE HCCA SOLUTION.

WEAKENING WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, AND
ODALYS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS
WEEK, HOWEVER, INCREASING WIND SHEAR, COOLER WATERS AND INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE POLO ARE
EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE TOP OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.9N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.6N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 21.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 230240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...ODALYS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 129.0W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 129.0 West. Odalys is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward
to east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected
through the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward
the northeast then north later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Odalys is forecast
to become a hurricane later tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 230239
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 129.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 129.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 129.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 5NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 129.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 222043
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026

DEEP CONVECTION WAS ON A POSITIVE TREND UNTIL RECENTLY, WHEN THE
CLOUD TOPS STARTED TO WARM BASED ON THE DATA FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, LIKELY DUE TO ENTERING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS T3.5/55 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME
AS THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 53-70 KT. THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 60/3 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD DEEPEN FURTHER. AFTER THIS, THE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE
MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR ODALYS RESULTING IN AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 H, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES AS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO COULD CAUSE ODALYS TO SLOW DOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER WIND
SHEAR, PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT. AFTER 48 H, ODALYS WILL ENCOUNTER A
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE POLO. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI
FORECAST AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 125.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.3N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.3N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 222042
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026

...ODALYS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 130.1W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND ODALYS
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 222042
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 130.1W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 140SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 130.1W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 125.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 124.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 221445
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND THE CENTER OF ODALYS AS
THE CYCLONE IMPROVES IN ORGANIZATION. THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 49-61 KT.
MEANWHILE, TAFB'S MOST RECENT DVORAK FIX WAS T3.5/55 KT, WHICH STILL
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. BASED ON THE GIVEN DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
INITIAL POSITION OF ODALYS WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND AN OUTAGE OF SATELLITE DATA THIS
MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 355/4 KT. A
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD, THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AFTERWARDS, ODALYS WILL BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH RESULTING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER DAY THREE, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO, WHICH COULD CAUSE ODALYS TO SLOW DOWN LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, HOWEVER THERE
IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE LOW-CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION AND ANALYSIS. THAT SAID, THE
FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST
AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BETWEEN 48 TO 72 H, THE STORM
COULD ENCOUNTER A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE POLO. THE LASTEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
BUT CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.3N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.7N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 221444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...ODALYS MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 130.5W
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 130.5 West. Odalys is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast and then east-northeast is expected to occur over the
next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is expected
through the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys
could become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 221444
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 130.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 127.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 126.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 220839
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026

BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE NEAR THE CENTER OF ODALYS TONIGHT
AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE CIRCULATION, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 47 TO 55 KT.
GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
THESE ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/6 KT. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWARD,
NORTHEASTWARD, AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ODALYS IS STEERED WITHIN THE
FLOW OF THE TROUGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A POTENTIAL BINARY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO AS IT TRACKS TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA,
WHICH COULD CAUSE ODALYS TO SLOW DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THOUGH
NUDGED SLIGHTLY LEFTWARD AND SLOWED DOWN GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY
AROUND DAY 5.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SLIGHTLY DECREASES, WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND MAY EXPERIENCE INCREASED
WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE POLO. THE
LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE, ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 220838
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...ODALYS STRENGTHENS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 130.4W
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 130.4 West. Odalys is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast and then east-northeast is expected over the
next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is expected
through the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys
could become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 220838
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.09.2026

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 103.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 0 15.2N 103.1W 999 38
1200UTC 22.09.2026 12 14.4N 102.8W 996 40
0000UTC 23.09.2026 24 14.3N 102.8W 991 44
1200UTC 23.09.2026 36 14.9N 103.2W 987 50
0000UTC 24.09.2026 48 15.5N 104.1W 984 56
1200UTC 24.09.2026 60 15.5N 105.3W 974 63
0000UTC 25.09.2026 72 15.6N 106.6W 955 89
1200UTC 25.09.2026 84 15.3N 108.4W 944 93
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 15.1N 110.3W 945 95
1200UTC 26.09.2026 108 15.0N 112.4W 937 95
0000UTC 27.09.2026 120 14.8N 114.3W 939 89
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 15.0N 115.7W 936 103
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 15.6N 117.0W 945 89
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 16.5N 117.7W 958 75
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 17.2N 118.1W 962 71

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 32.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 0 32.6N 32.7W 1011 37
1200UTC 22.09.2026 12 31.5N 34.3W 1014 33
0000UTC 23.09.2026 24 30.7N 36.3W 1015 27
1200UTC 23.09.2026 36 30.3N 38.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 24.09.2026 48 29.9N 40.2W 1015 25
1200UTC 24.09.2026 60 30.0N 42.3W 1016 26
0000UTC 25.09.2026 72 30.3N 43.6W 1016 26
1200UTC 25.09.2026 84 30.8N 44.7W 1017 26
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 130.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 0 14.2N 130.4W 1000 35
1200UTC 22.09.2026 12 15.2N 130.5W 999 38
0000UTC 23.09.2026 24 15.4N 130.2W 997 36
1200UTC 23.09.2026 36 15.5N 129.4W 997 37
0000UTC 24.09.2026 48 15.8N 128.7W 996 38
1200UTC 24.09.2026 60 16.2N 128.4W 996 36
0000UTC 25.09.2026 72 16.7N 127.9W 996 38
1200UTC 25.09.2026 84 17.3N 127.4W 996 39
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 17.6N 127.1W 995 38
1200UTC 26.09.2026 108 18.5N 127.3W 997 37
0000UTC 27.09.2026 120 19.4N 128.1W 999 34
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 20.4N 129.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 21.4N 129.6W 1000 42
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 21.9N 130.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 21.1N 131.0W 1004 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.2N 19.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2026 48 11.0N 20.1W 1007 29
1200UTC 24.09.2026 60 11.6N 21.7W 1007 32
0000UTC 25.09.2026 72 12.7N 24.0W 1006 34
1200UTC 25.09.2026 84 15.0N 24.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 15.4N 26.8W 1008 36
1200UTC 26.09.2026 108 17.0N 28.5W 1008 41
0000UTC 27.09.2026 120 18.5N 29.4W 1009 32
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 18.9N 31.1W 1010 32
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 19.9N 32.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 21.4N 34.4W 1010 25
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 22.3N 36.4W 1009 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.4N 156.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2026 60 14.4N 156.1W 1003 27
0000UTC 25.09.2026 72 14.4N 156.4W 1002 29
1200UTC 25.09.2026 84 14.6N 156.2W 1000 35
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 15.1N 155.7W 997 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 108 15.4N 156.4W 996 42
0000UTC 27.09.2026 120 15.2N 156.8W 992 43
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 14.2N 157.6W 989 43
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 13.7N 158.3W 987 49
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 13.8N 158.5W 988 45
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 14.9N 158.4W 988 50

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.5N 71.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 84 32.5N 71.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 33.6N 69.2W 1001 36
1200UTC 26.09.2026 108 35.5N 69.0W 991 50
0000UTC 27.09.2026 120 38.6N 67.5W 988 48
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 39.4N 70.0W 985 52
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 39.3N 69.5W 984 45
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 41.1N 67.2W 989 37
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 42.6N 64.7W 994 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.5N 96.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2026 96 12.1N 97.8W 1005 24
1200UTC 26.09.2026 108 12.3N 99.4W 1003 31
0000UTC 27.09.2026 120 13.3N 100.8W 1001 37
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 14.2N 101.9W 1000 36
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 15.0N 103.1W 997 40
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 15.4N 104.1W 992 50
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 15.9N 105.0W 986 54

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.5N 144.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 132 12.5N 144.1W 1004 25
0000UTC 28.09.2026 144 12.2N 143.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 28.09.2026 156 12.1N 142.0W 1002 36
0000UTC 29.09.2026 168 12.8N 140.0W 1000 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220419


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 220258
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2026

ODALYS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT. RECENT
IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PLUME OF CONVECTION WITH COOLING CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM, ALONG WITH A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING TO ITS SOUTH. THE LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 3.5/55 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LOWER, RANGING FROM 37-49 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
CENTERED BETWEEN A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH,
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS
AND STALLS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LONGER RANGE, AS SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN
ODALYS AND HURRICANE POLO COULD OCCUR AS IT PARALLELS THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, AND REMAINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY AROUND 36 H. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PLATEAU IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDWEEK, BEFORE
INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO SLOW WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.3N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 220255
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2026

...ODALYS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 130.3W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MID-WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 220255
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 130.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 130.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 212046
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2026

ALTHOUGH THE STORM STILL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
ON EITHER GEOSTATIONARY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY, A RECENT ASCAT-C
OVERPASS SHOWED AT LEAST ONE BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR OF NEAR 43 KT.
THIS, ALONG WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB, SUPPORTS INCREASING
THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT. ODALYS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT THE HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT AS COLD
AS THEY WERE EARLIER TODAY, LIKELY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS
AROUND 310/7 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORIES. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SHARP
EASTWARD TURN OF ODALYS TOMORROW. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN ODALYS AND
HURRICANE POLO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK GUIDANCE. SOME
INTERACTION BETWEEN ODALYS AND POLO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OR
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT DECAY-SHIPS INPUT, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS, ALONG WITH A SUFFICIENTLY WARM OCEAN,
SHOULD ALLOW ODALYS TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS OR
SO. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 15.3N 127.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 15.7N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 212045
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...ODALYS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 130.0W
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 130.0 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. An eastward turn is
forecast on Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the
east-northeast by midweek, and toward the northeast by the end of
the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Odalys
is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 212045
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 130.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 130.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.3N 127.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 125.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 130.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 211448
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2026

THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO FAR THIS MORNING. A LARGE BURST OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C. SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN THROUGH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS USING GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT.

SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
THIS TIME, THE MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10
KT, NEARLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL CAUSE ODALYS TO
TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD, AND STEER THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BETWEEN THE FLOW OF THE
TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN ODALYS AND TROPICAL
STORM POLO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI
TRACK AIDS.

ODALYS IS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE
SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL,
HCCA, PREDICTION. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 13.9N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.6N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.2N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.6N 127.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.4N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 211447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2026

...ODALYS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 129.3W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EASTWARD TURN IS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY MID-WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 211447
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.6N 130.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 127.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 124.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 122.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 129.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 210838
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...ODALYS CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 128.7W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 128.7 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. An eastward turn is forecast
on Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the east-northeast by
midweek, and toward the northeast by the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected, and Odalys is forecast to become
a hurricane by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 210839
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2026

ODALYS CONTINUES TO BE AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SEMICIRCLES. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. A METOP-B SCATTEROMETER
PASS AT 0455 UTC REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. MEANWHILE, THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 39 TO 45 KT. BLENDING THE SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH THE HIGHER
SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE
CENTER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/11 KT,
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL CAUSE A SHARP EASTWARD TURN, STEERING THE SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BETWEEN THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
BETWEEN ODALYS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.

ODALYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTERWARD, THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX
SLIGHTLY WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. IN RESPONSE TO
THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, SEVERAL INTENSITY MODELS NO LONGER
SHOW ODALYS REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH ODALYS IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE, THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSELY FOLLOWING
THE HCCA CONSENSUS AID, AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.5N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 14.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.2N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.4N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.5N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 15.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.9N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.2N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 210838
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 128.7W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 128.7W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 129.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 129.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.9N 126.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 124.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 128.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 210241
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...ODALYS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 127.7W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 127.7 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and an abrupt
turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. A gradual turn toward
the east-northeast is expected by the middle part of the week
followed by a turn toward the northeast by the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected to resume on Monday, and Odalys
is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 210242
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPEDING ODALYS' INTENSIFICATION
RATE APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS, AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT AS
WELL. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE TAFB
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH ODALYS IS MOVING OVER WARM OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN
A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR MASS, MODEST NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, LITTLE IF ANY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT-TERM. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY
MODEL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR DIMINISHING, ALLOWING
ODALYS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAY 4 GRADUALLY. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COMMENCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS, BUT ABOVE THE IVCN
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/11
KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A RATHER ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AMPLIFYING TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BY MID-WEEK, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE TROUGH AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN ODALYS AND TROPICAL STORM
POLO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE HFIP HCCA AND THE
GDMI TC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BEYOND DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.1N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 15.5N 130.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.6N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 15.7N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.3N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.9N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 210241
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 129.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 123.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 127.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 202048
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

ODALYS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH VERY
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER, AND SOME BANDING FEATURES
EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER. THIS IMPLIES SOME NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
STORM. THE ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED
ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
A SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, OVER VERY WARM WATERS, AND WITHIN A MOIST
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST
COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ODALYS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 24-48 HOURS, A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TURN EASTWARD. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT, ODALYS IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE EAST COULD ALSO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK IN
3-5 DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 202047
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 126.6W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 202047
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 201456
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODALYS
THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C NEAR THE
ESTIMATE CENTER LOCATION. SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM, HOWEVER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE, BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 285/8 KT. ODALYS SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
NARROW AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER
ABOUT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 3-5 DAY TRACK OF ODALYS DUE ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ITS EAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LASTEST CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS,
HCCA, PREDICTION.

ODALYS SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY.
THEREFORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
DECAY-SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM MAY ENCOUNTER A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND ITS INTENSITY BECOME
HINDERED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 201455
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...ODALYS IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 125.5W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn
to the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the north
and northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is expected
during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a
hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 201455
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 124.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200848
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF
ODALYS HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, WITH A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION EXPANDING
OVER OR NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T2.5/35 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ODALYS, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/7 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND
TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD BY TUESDAY, THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
DEVELOPS THEREAFTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE, AT LEAST IN PART, TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE FACTORS
LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS THROUGH AROUND DAY 4, THEN REFLECTS
MORE OF A BLEND OF THE TWO THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD INCREASES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, MODEST NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY TEMPER
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 H. THEREAFTER, THE
RATE OF STRENGTHENING COULD INCREASE AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND ODALYS
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A HURRICANE BY MONDAY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANTICIPATED LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THERE
IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVING WELL TO THE
EAST, WHICH COULD AFFECT ITS INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACKS AND PROXIMITY OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 11.4N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.0N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.3N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.4N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 15.2N 128.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 15.6N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.7N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200846
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.0N 128.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 128.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.3N 128.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 124.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=