Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26 Off-shore from 20 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC to 15:00

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-26

Off-shore

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

20/09 14:57 WTPZ41KNHC201456

20/09 14:57 WTPZ31KNHC201455

20/09 14:56 WTPZ21KNHC201455

20/09 08:48 WTPZ31KNHC200847

20/09 08:48 WTPZ41KNHC200848

20/09 08:47 WTPZ21KNHC200846

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 201456
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODALYS
THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C NEAR THE
ESTIMATE CENTER LOCATION. SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM, HOWEVER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE, BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 285/8 KT. ODALYS SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
NARROW AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER
ABOUT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 3-5 DAY TRACK OF ODALYS DUE ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ITS EAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LASTEST CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS,
HCCA, PREDICTION.

ODALYS SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY.
THEREFORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
DECAY-SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM MAY ENCOUNTER A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND ITS INTENSITY BECOME
HINDERED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 201455
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...ODALYS IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 125.5W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn
to the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the north
and northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is expected
during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a
hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 201455
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 124.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200848
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF
ODALYS HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, WITH A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION EXPANDING
OVER OR NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T2.5/35 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ODALYS, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/7 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND
TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD BY TUESDAY, THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
DEVELOPS THEREAFTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE, AT LEAST IN PART, TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE FACTORS
LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS THROUGH AROUND DAY 4, THEN REFLECTS
MORE OF A BLEND OF THE TWO THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD INCREASES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, MODEST NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY TEMPER
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 H. THEREAFTER, THE
RATE OF STRENGTHENING COULD INCREASE AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND ODALYS
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A HURRICANE BY MONDAY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANTICIPATED LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THERE
IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVING WELL TO THE
EAST, WHICH COULD AFFECT ITS INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACKS AND PROXIMITY OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 11.4N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.0N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.3N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.4N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 15.2N 128.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 15.6N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.7N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200846
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.0N 128.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 128.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.3N 128.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 124.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=

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