Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FAY-26 Off-shore from 19 Sep 2026 15:00 UTC to 20 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FAY-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

20/09 08:44 WTNT41KNHC200842

20/09 08:43 WTNT31KNHC200841

20/09 08:42 WTNT21KNHC200840

20/09 02:39 WTNT31KNHC200237

20/09 02:39 WTNT41KNHC200237

20/09 02:38 WTNT21KNHC200236

19/09 20:36 WTNT41KNHC192034

19/09 20:35 WTNT21KNHC192033

19/09 20:35 WTNT31KNHC192033

19/09 16:22 WTNT82EGRR191622

19/09 14:51 WTNT41KNHC191449

19/09 14:50 WTNT31KNHC191448

19/09 14:50 WTNT21KNHC191448

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone
and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours.
The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and
range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass
from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This
makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact,
with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about
40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about
100-150 n mi across.

The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements
from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to
gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the
trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear
and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely
become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week
as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions.
The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given
the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic
support.

Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue
for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is
anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that
should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in
that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend
of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 33.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving
toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected for about another day. A turn to the southwest
is expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the
next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 33.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 33.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 33.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 33.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
The depression is expected to generally move to the northeast
through Sunday before turning eastward Sunday night. A
southwestward motion is expected to start on Monday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm on Sunday. A weakening trend is expected
to begin by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200237
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

The convective organization of the depression has increased
somewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in
the northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now
suggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength.
However, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based
mainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. Cirrus
cloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is
located near or just south of the center, with very strong
upper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level
circulation.

The initial motion is 020/4 kt. The depression is in an area of
weak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the
east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During
the next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is
expected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to
the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result
in the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning
toward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely
until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit
westward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a
bit west of the previous track.

The dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to
develop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical
depression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less
hostile shear environment around the depression that should allow
some intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement
that strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move
over the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening.
While the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the
cyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and
subsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate. The new
intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm
for a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between
60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast
to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 33.3N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 33.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 192034
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that
mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the
convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this
time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt
for this advisory.

Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to
show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone
should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a
trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build
back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move
southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC
forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with
small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good
agreement with HCCA and GDMI.

The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment,
between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for
intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the
system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously
mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual
weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around
120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the
cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could
possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC
intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope,
and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.9N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 192033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 33.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 33.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 33.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 33.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 33.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 33.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
The system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the
next day or so, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After
that time, gradual weakening is expected to occur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 33.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2026 0 32.5N 33.6W 1013 23
0000UTC 20.09.2026 12 33.1N 33.2W 1012 26
1200UTC 20.09.2026 24 34.3N 33.2W 1011 31
0000UTC 21.09.2026 36 34.7N 32.4W 1011 29
1200UTC 21.09.2026 48 34.6N 31.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 33.8N 32.5W 1016 28
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.4N 108.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2026 36 14.6N 108.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.09.2026 48 15.3N 107.2W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 15.2N 106.1W 1002 30
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 15.4N 105.2W 999 34
0000UTC 23.09.2026 84 16.2N 105.0W 994 44
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 17.8N 105.5W 983 58
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 21.0N 105.9W 970 73
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 25.6N 107.6W 1001 26
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 30.8N 109.1W 1003 22
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 35.4N 110.7W 1004 19
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.2N 130.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 14.5N 131.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 15.1N 131.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 23.09.2026 84 15.3N 132.2W 1002 30
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 15.2N 132.0W 1001 33
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 15.1N 131.2W 998 39
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 15.1N 130.4W 997 40
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 15.2N 129.4W 995 38
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 16.2N 128.0W 995 40
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 17.2N 127.2W 994 40
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 18.3N 125.8W 995 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.3N 152.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 15.0N 153.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 14.4N 155.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 15.2N 156.0W 1002 30
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 15.3N 156.1W 1000 32
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 15.7N 156.5W 997 35
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 15.6N 156.9W 994 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 15.6N 157.7W 992 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N 19.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 12.1N 19.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 12.9N 20.6W 1006 30
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 14.9N 22.7W 1007 34
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 16.0N 24.7W 1008 33
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 17.0N 26.4W 1007 42
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 18.2N 28.4W 1010 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 17.4N 30.9W 1011 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.9N 97.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 10.6N 98.4W 1003 27

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191622

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191449
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring
southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and
peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone
still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that
area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However,
the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of
strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last
forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been
started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30
kt.

Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should
start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for
the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the
northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which
will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is
expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast
period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
HCCA and GDMI.

The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable
environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow
for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so.
After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher
shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact
the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then
dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF
show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has
the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has
dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly
under HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This
system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next
24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however
after that gradual weakening is expected to occur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 33.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 33.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG

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