Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-26 Off-shore from 09 Sep 2026 21:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-26

Off-shore

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

10/09 09:21 WTPN31PHNC101000

10/09 08:43 WTPZ44KNHC100842

10/09 08:42 WTPZ34KNHC100841

10/09 08:42 WTPZ24KNHC100841

10/09 02:35 WTPZ34KNHC100233

10/09 02:34 WTPZ44KNHC100233

10/09 02:34 WTPZ24KNHC100233

09/09 20:40 WTPZ44KNHC092039

09/09 20:40 WTPZ34KNHC092038

09/09 20:39 WTPZ24KNHC092038

09/09 20:33 WTPZ44KNHC092032

09/09 20:33 WTPZ34KNHC092031

09/09 20:32 WTPZ24KNHC092031

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 117.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 117.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.6N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.7N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.9N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.8N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.5N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 118.2W. 10SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND
111000Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100842
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TONIGHT. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WAS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM,
RECENT PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER IS LIKELY
CLOSER TO OR JUST UNDERNEATH THE EDGE OF THE COLD OVERCAST. RECENT
AIDT AND D-PRINT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 35-39 KT RANGE,
AND TAFB PROVIDED ANOTHER 2.5/35-KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. BASED ON
THESE DEVELOPMENTS, THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

NORBERT IS MOVING WESTWARD (280/11 KT) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP NORBERT ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT DAYS 3-5, GENERALLY FALLING BETWEEN HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND AT THOSE TIMES. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO NOTABLE
TRACK CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE SHEARED STRUCTURE OF NORBERT AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MODEST NEAR-TERM
STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER 28-29C WATERS. DESPITE THESE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. OVERALL, THE
INTENSITY MODELS TRENDED WEAKER THIS CYCLE, AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOWEVER, THE NHC FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR NORBERT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.6N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.9N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 17.3N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 117.9W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100841
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.9N 126.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 116.6W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH, AND A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 DEG C OR COLDER. THESE HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THIS IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION, AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
SHOULD PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND BUILDS A
LITTLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT AROUND DAY
5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A REASONABLY CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT WESTERLY
SHEAR COULD BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING. ALSO,
SOME ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN EMANATING FROM THE CYCLONE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER, THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
PREDICTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 16.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092039
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP96) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF ITS CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM
AROUND 1700 UTC REVEALED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH A MAX WIND OF AROUND 30 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM
TAFB RATED THIS SYSTEM AT 2.5/2.5, OR AN INTENSITY AT AROUND 35 KT.
GIVEN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E, WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ESTIMATED AT 285/8 KT, BUT
THIS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY RECENTLY FORMED. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION,
SO A PRIMARILY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT
WILL SHIFT THE TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA AND GDMI, WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AS WELL AS AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SSTS, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AND INTO A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER STRENGTHENING TREND
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, GIVEN THAT SCATTEROMETRY DATA STILL
DEPICTS A DEPRESSION WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE NHC
PREDICTION LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092032
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP96) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF ITS CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM
AROUND 1700 UTC REVEALED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH A MAX WIND OF AROUND 30 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM
TAFB RATED THIS SYSTEM AT 2.5/2.5, OR AN INTENSITY AT AROUND 35 KT.
GIVEN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E, WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ESTIMATED AT 285/8 KT, BUT
THIS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY RECENTLY FORMED. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION,
SO A PRIMARILY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT
WILL SHIFT THE TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA AND GDMI, WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AS WELL AS AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SSTS, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AND INTO A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER STRENGTHENING TREND
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, GIVEN THAT SCATTEROMETRY DATA STILL
DEPICTS A DEPRESSION WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE NHC
PREDICTION LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=

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