Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for LOWELL-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2026 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for LOWELL-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

28/08 05:03 WTPN33PHNC280400

28/08 02:50 WTPZ42KNHC280248

28/08 02:49 WTPZ32KNHC280247

28/08 02:47 WTPZ22KNHC280247

27/08 22:39 WTPN33PHNC272200

27/08 20:48 WTPZ42KNHC272046

27/08 20:47 WTPZ32KNHC272045

27/08 20:45 WTPZ22KNHC272045

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 133.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 133.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.8N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.3N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.5N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.7N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.9N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.2N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.5N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.9N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 133.4W. 28AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z,
282200Z AND 290400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280248
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite imagery shows a large area of deep convection that has
been persisting with Lowell, with a ball of deep convection near and
over the center, and a curved band noted as well. A 27/2204Z AMSR-2
pass also shows the same curved banding pattern. Earlier
scatterometer data showed that the center was slightly elongated,
with tropical-storm-force winds confined to the southern semicircle
and a radius of maximum wind (RMW) of about 50 n mi. The latest
TAFB Dvorak classification is T2.5/35 kt and objective estimates
have been ranging from 30-42 kt. The initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory, but given the impressive banding and
maintenance of deep convection, this estimate could be slightly
conservative.

The initial motion estimate remains slowly east-northeastward, or 70
degrees at 4 kt. A slow counterclockwise turn toward the north and
then the west is expected over the next 36 h as ridging builds in
to the northeast and north. A generally westward to
west-northwestward motion should then continue for the rest of the
forecast period. There remains a ton of spread in the forward speed
from 72 to 120 h, which could be related to Karina's location and
size, relative to Lowell's. The NHC track is a little faster toward
the west than the previous forecast beyond 36 hours, but not nearly
as fast as the HCCA and GDMI.

Lowell will be over relatively favorable environmental conditions
for the next 5 days, with warm sea-surface temperatures, light to
moderate easterly wind shear and relatively moist air. Despite
these favorable conditions, it is a bit perplexing that the models
are so slow to strengthen Lowell to a hurricane. Perhaps the slow
strengthening at first could be due to the large RMW observed on
the previous ASCAT pass along with the moderate easterly shear. If
the cyclone is able to gain enough latitude and get north of 13N,
it should find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment,
which could allow for more significant strengthening in a few days.
Little change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast
in the first 4 days, but a higher intensity is shown at day 5. The
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the intensity consensus, but
not as high as the HMON and HCCA, which bring Lowell to major
hurricane strength by day 5. The confidence in the intensity
forecast is below average, and it is possible that Lowell could
strengthen more than forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 11.4N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 11.8N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 12.3N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 12.5N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 12.7N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 12.9N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 13.2N 139.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 13.5N 142.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 13.9N 146.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280247
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

...LOWELL DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 133.5W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 133.5 West. Lowell is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north is expected by Friday, with a westward motion
expected by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell is
forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280247
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 133.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 133.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 133.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 134.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 135.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 137.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.2N 139.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 13.5N 142.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 146.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 133.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260252ZAUG26
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.2N 134.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 134.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 11.6N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.6N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.9N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.0N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.4N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.8N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 133.8W.
27AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 01C (LALA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 270300).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 272046
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance well to the
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula and well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has developed well-organized
convective bands. Recently received ASCAT data showed a closed
circulation which, while elongated NE-SW, was producing winds near
35 kt about 50 n mi southeast of the center. Based on this,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Lowell.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 065/4 kt. During the
next day or two, Lowell is expected to turn westward as a low- to
mid-level ridge builds to the north. A generally westward motion
should continue for the rest of the forecast period. The guidance
has some spread in the forward speed by 120 h, which seems to be
due to possible effects on the steering flow by the larger Tropical
Storm Karina to the east. The forecast track is near the center of
the guidance envelope and splits the speed difference between the
models.

Lowell will be over warm sea surface temperatures during the next
five days and in an environment of light to moderate easterly
shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and the initial
intensity forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance.
Since the environment is favorable and some of the guidance is
stronger than the current forecast, it is possible that Lowell will
strengthen more and faster than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.3N 133.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 272045
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORMS IN THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 133.8W
ABOUT 1765 MI...2840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 133.8 West. Lowell is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north is expected by Friday, with a westward motion
expected by Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
likely during the next several days, and Lowell could become a
hurricane by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 272045
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 134.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 133.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=

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