Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2026 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

28/08 02:47 WTPZ31KNHC280245

28/08 02:44 WTPZ41KNHC280244

28/08 02:43 WTPZ21KNHC280242

27/08 20:46 WTPZ41KNHC272046

27/08 20:46 WTPZ31KNHC272044

27/08 20:44 WTPZ21KNHC272044

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 280245
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM KARINA HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT...
...CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 112.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected to continue as Karina
is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 280244
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 PM MST THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM KARINA HAS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, INDICATED BY THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB, AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
SITTING AROUND 35 TO 45 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER
OF KARINA, WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE, THE NHC INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.

KARINA'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS ALTERED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AS WELL, NOW SET AT 315/11 KT. THIS HEADING IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL DICTATE KARINA'S
MOTION PRIOR TO THE INTERVENTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS INTERACTION, AND AS SHOWCASED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY GDMI AND HCCA, KARINA'S TRACK WILL BEGIN TO
STEER MORE WESTWARD. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF KARINA, WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING AS
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF SHIPS INDICATES THAT KARINA REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS KARINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH A MOISTURE-LADEN
AREA WITH LOW SHEAR. SHIPS-RII CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 55 KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS; A 10 PERCENT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN
FACT, THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GOOGLE DEEPMIND INDICATES A 60
PERCENT CHANCE THAT KARINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT GIVEN KARINA CURRENTLY
LACKS A TIGHT INNER CORE, THE NHC FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER
INTENSIFICATION RATE. CONVERSELY, IF AN INNER CORE IS ESTABLISHED
SOONER, KARINA COULD INTENSIFY MUCH QUICKER THAN FORECAST. KARINA
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN
WEAKENING BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.9N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 17.0N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 17.8N 120.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.3N 122.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 18.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 20.2N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 280242
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 112.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 50SE 0SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 112.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 80SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 110SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N 117.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 110SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 110SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 272046
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 PM MST THU AUG 27 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP93) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH BANDED
CONVECTION AROUND ITS CENTER. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS FROM TAFB WAS 2.5/2.5, WHICH REFLECTS THIS ORGANIZATION.
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM AROUND 1600 UTC ALSO SHOWED A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED, BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KT. BASED ON THIS, ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
KARINA, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE WAS SET AT 295/11 KT. KARINA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
STAYING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL DRIVE KARINA'S NORTHWESTWARD MOTION,
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT KARINA'S TRACK MORE WESTWARD AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 H ON KARINA'S
TRACK, THEN SHOW MORE SPREAD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE, THUS HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS KARINA MOVES OVER WARM SSTS IN A
MOISTURE-RICH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODELS DEPICT A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 72 H, BEFORE MOVING INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SSTS AND REDUCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
SHIPS-RII CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEARLY 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A 55 KT INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDICATING THAT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE
STORM CURRENTLY LACKS A TIGHT INNER CORE, THE INITIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE, AND HAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE HCCA FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.1N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 272044
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 111.9W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 111.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a
hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 272044
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 240SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 40SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...230NE 70SE 30SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 90SE 40SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

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