Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DOLLY-26 in Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis from 27 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2026 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DOLLY-26

in Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

28/08 02:46 WTNT44KNHC280244

28/08 02:46 WTNT34KNHC280244

28/08 02:45 WTNT24KNHC280243

27/08 20:42 WTNT44KNHC272040

27/08 20:41 WTNT34KNHC272039

27/08 20:40 WTNT24KNHC272038

27/08 14:52 WTNT44KNHC271449

27/08 14:49 WTNT34KNHC271447

27/08 14:48 WTNT24KNHC271446

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280244
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Dolly appears to be more or less maintaining its intensity at this
time. However, the associated deep convection is not very
well-organized, with no well-defined banding features evident on
satellite images. The center of circulation is estimated to be on
the north side of the main area of convection. The Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB remains at 35 kt. There was a
Metop-B scatterometer pass from just before 00Z which showed just a
couple of 35-kt vectors. Therefore the advisory intensity is kept
at 35 kt. The scatterometer pass did not completely capture the
circulation of the storm but it did suggest some
north-northeastward to south-southwestward elongation of the center.

The storm continues to move quickly toward the west and the initial
motion estimate is 280/20 kt, about the same as before. Dolly is
forecast to move mainly westward at a fast forward speed for the
next couple of days on the south side of a strong high pressure
ridge over the central Atlantic. There have been no significant
changes in the track guidance from earlier today. There is
fairly good agreement amongst the various model tracks, and the
official track forecast is roughly in the middle of these tracks.
This is close to the latest Google DeepMind solution.

Although it will encounter warmer ocean waters, Dolly is likely to
move into less favorable atmospheric conditions during the next
couple of days. Some slight short-term strengthening is possible,
but increasing vertical wind shear, relatively dry air and the
fast forward motion of the system should begin to adversely affect
Dolly fairly soon. The global models show the system degenerating
into a tropical wave while it approaches the Lesser Antilles, and
the NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.
Post-tropical positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 13.8N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 15.2N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 16.0N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/1200Z 17.0N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

...DOLLY CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 42.3W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 42.3 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 hours, and
Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands
late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy
rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of
the Leeward Islands.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280243
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 42.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 42.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 41.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.3N 45.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 50.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 42.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 272040
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Dolly has been struggling to develop deep thunderstorm activity
near the center during the day, though a new convective burst has
recently gone up in the southern semicircle. Overall the
environment appears rather dry, with most of the northern portion
of the circulation exposed. Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
little change in wind speed, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt
on this advisory.

The initial motion estimate continues at 275/21 kt. Dolly
is forecast to move quickly westward for the next couple of days
under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.
There aren't many guidance changes to report as the models are
tightly clustered on a path towards the Leeward Islands. No
significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast,
remaining on the faster and southward side of the guidance
envelope.

The environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for
strengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft. Until then, some modest intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus. Global and regional
models all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on
Friday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our
forecast shows this decay by the weekend. The timing of the
transition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise
no other changes were made to the forecast. Post-tropical
positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 13.7N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 14.1N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 14.7N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.5N 57.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/0600Z 17.3N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272039
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

...DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 40.7W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 40.7 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48
hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave
before it reaches the Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands
late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy
rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain of the Leeward Islands.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 272038
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 40.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 40.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.1N 43.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.7N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.6N 53.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 57.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.3N 61.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 40.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with
organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the
southern side of the circulation largely away from the center.
Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in
the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt
classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical
Storm Dolly.

The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue
moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong
ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance
is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and
the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA
model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and
poleward in the tropical Atlantic.

The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance
is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and
post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely
coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV
Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone
when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin
to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 38.7W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.7 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to
degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward
Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain from this system could begin to affect the
Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may
produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271446
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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