Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWO-C-26 Off-shore from 20 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWO-C-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

21/08 20:38 WTPA43PHFO212037

21/08 20:37 WTPA23PHFO212036

21/08 20:37 WTPA33PHFO212036

21/08 16:25 WTNT82EGRR211624

21/08 15:34 WTPN32PHNC211600

21/08 15:00 WTPA43PHFO211459

21/08 14:59 WTPA33PHFO211458

21/08 14:59 WTPA23PHFO211458

21/08 08:45 WTPA33PHFO210845

21/08 08:45 WTPA23PHFO210844

21/08 08:45 WTPA43PHFO210844

21/08 04:21 WTNT82EGRR210420

21/08 02:38 WTPA43PHFO210236

21/08 02:34 WTPA23PHFO210234

21/08 02:34 WTPA33PHFO210234

20/08 20:40 WTPA43PHFO202039

20/08 20:39 WTPA33PHFO202039

20/08 20:39 WTPA23PHFO202038

20/08 14:56 WTPA43PHFO201455

20/08 14:54 WTPA23PHFO201454

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 212037
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
depression has strengthened. Dropsonde data suggest that the
minimum pressure is around 1002 mb and the flight-level wind
information supports an initial wind speed of about 40 kt, making
the system Tropical Storm Moke. Moke is gradually becoming better
organized in satellite images, with curved bands showing improved
structure north of the center.

There has not been any significant change to the track forecast
philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen to
the north of the storm during the next few days, and that should
cause Moke to move a little faster to the west-northwest. This
motion should cause the core of system to pass to the south of the
Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. Since Moke
is also forecast to be a compact storm, no tropical storm watches
or warnings are required based on the current predictions.
However, the storm will very likely be close enough to produce some
wind, rain, and surf impacts, see the Key Messages below for
details. The NHC track forecast is again largely an update of the
previous one, and remains on the north side of the guidance
envelope.

Moke has another day or so to strengthen while it remains in
generally favorable environmental conditions. However, most of the
models show the storm entraining dry air while it moves into a
region of higher shear late this weekend and early next week. Those
environmental conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken
beginning in about 36 hours, and it could even dissipate toward the
end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the
high end of the model guidance. Based on the environmental
conditions and model spread, there remains high confidence that Moke
will stay below hurricane strength.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact
the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the
Big Island.

3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.9N 147.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 212036
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 147.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 147.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 146.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 147.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 212036
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHS TO TROPICAL STORM MOKE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 147.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 147.2 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES) BASED ON
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 211624

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.08.2026

HURRICANE LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 171.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2026 0 27.0N 171.2W 964 72
0000UTC 22.08.2026 12 29.3N 170.7W 968 69
1200UTC 22.08.2026 24 30.3N 172.2W 968 60
0000UTC 23.08.2026 36 31.7N 173.0W 976 57
1200UTC 23.08.2026 48 32.2N 174.4W 980 49
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 32.7N 175.1W 986 50
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 33.5N 176.1W 990 46
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 34.1N 176.8W 993 42
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.8N 177.9W 995 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 35.1N 179.0W 999 39
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 35.2N 179.9W 1003 42
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 35.9N 178.9E 1006 37
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 37.5N 177.5E 1005 40
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 38.1N 176.7E 1006 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 39.3N 175.9E 1007 30

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 145.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2026 0 12.9N 145.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 22.08.2026 12 14.0N 147.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 22.08.2026 24 14.4N 150.2W 1005 35
0000UTC 23.08.2026 36 14.2N 152.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 23.08.2026 48 14.2N 155.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 14.4N 158.2W 1007 29
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 14.6N 161.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 14.7N 164.1W 1007 27
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 14.8N 166.5W 1007 25
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 15.6N 169.1W 1007 27
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 16.1N 171.9W 1007 25
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 16.9N 174.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 16.9N 176.9W 1006 27
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 17.1N 178.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 17.5N 179.0E 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 30.5N 59.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 48 30.5N 59.0W 1016 23
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 32.4N 59.5W 1016 26
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 34.5N 60.0W 1014 29
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 37.7N 59.5W 1011 34
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 42.6N 57.6W 1005 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 48.3N 52.8W 1003 37
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.0N 119.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 16.3N 120.1W 1002 29
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 18.0N 121.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 19.4N 123.6W 1001 36
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 21.7N 124.6W 1003 38
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 22.2N 127.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 23.8N 127.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 25.2N 129.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 25.2N 129.8W 1009 20
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.0N 62.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 27.0N 62.4W 1014 26
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 29.0N 62.5W 1012 29
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 30.8N 62.4W 1011 28
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 32.3N 62.1W 1010 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 34.2N 60.9W 1011 32
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 36.1N 59.6W 1010 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 9.7N 117.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 9.9N 118.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 10.6N 119.7W 1003 23
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 11.8N 122.1W 1003 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 35.4N 73.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 36.7N 70.9W 1013 29

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211624

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (TWO-C) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (TWO-C) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 145.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 145.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.9N 147.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.7N 149.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.4N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.9N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.2N 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.6N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 146.1W.
21AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (TWO-C), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
671 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (LALA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

0000511700
00001

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 211459
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Satellite and microwave imagery depicts deeper convective bands
associated Two-C north of the center. The latest subjective
intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt,
which correlates well with the objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS, supporting around 30 kt intensities as well. Based on
these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Later
today, NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to
investigate Two-C.

The depression is maintaining a west-northwestward track of 295/9
kt, and that is expected to persist as the cyclone progresses south
of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest model guidance showcases a more
westward track through the weekend as broad ridging builds in the
Central Pacific just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC
track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one,
and a blend of the consensus models and the guidance of the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

The latest model and satellite trends suggest Two-C will likely
strengthen over the next 48 h, as environmental conditions remain
generally favorable. While the cyclone will experience light,
southwesterly shear during the early portion of its life cycle,
significantly warmer SSTs and a relatively moist atmosphere will
help counter any negative shear effects. However, multi-model
intensity consensus and SHIPS intensity guidance portray gradual
weakening thereafter as the cyclone should succumb to increasing
vertical wind shear and drier relative humidity values.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact
the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with the system are
expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds
are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher
terrain on the Big Island.

3. Swells generated by the system may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 211458
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BRING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 146.0W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 146.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 211458
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 146.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 146.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 145.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 146.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 210845
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 145.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON WINDWARD MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THS WEEKEND, AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 210844
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 145.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 145.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 145.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 210844
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated
with Tropical Depression Two-C has changed little during the past
several hours. Much of the deep convection remains positioned north
of the low-level circulation. This steady satellite presentation,
combined with the generally unchanged intensity estimates from HFO,
JTWC, and UW-CIMSS, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30
kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/9 kt, and this general
motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone
remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual
turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge
builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in
generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists
as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands
this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast is
slightly south of the previous forecast, and lies closer to the
consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next few days as the depression approaches the Hawaiian
Islands. The cyclone is forecast to stay over warm waters and within
a moist environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear. The
NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the intensity
guidance and shows a gradual weakening trend beginning by early next
week due to drier mid-level air and increasing vertical wind shear.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to strengthen while it
moves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands
over the next couple of days.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will
begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night,
spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands
Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas
that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Residents
should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that
they have their preparedness plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2026

HURRICANE LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 172.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2026 0 25.1N 172.2W 971 69
1200UTC 21.08.2026 12 27.0N 171.2W 961 78
0000UTC 22.08.2026 24 29.2N 170.7W 968 69
1200UTC 22.08.2026 36 30.5N 172.0W 970 60
0000UTC 23.08.2026 48 31.5N 172.4W 975 59
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 32.5N 173.8W 980 51
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 32.7N 174.7W 985 48
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 33.6N 175.3W 988 49
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.8N 176.5W 992 44
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 35.6N 177.9W 994 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 36.6N 178.4W 998 38
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 38.4N 179.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 40.3N 178.6E 996 51
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 41.1N 177.3E 999 42
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 41.9N 176.2E 1007 29

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 144.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2026 0 12.5N 144.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 21.08.2026 12 12.6N 146.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 22.08.2026 24 12.8N 148.2W 1006 27
1200UTC 22.08.2026 36 13.2N 150.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 23.08.2026 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.4N 121.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 16.9N 121.2W 1003 34
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 18.1N 123.8W 1002 40
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 19.6N 125.3W 1003 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 20.8N 127.0W 1003 39
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 22.1N 128.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 22.7N 130.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 23.1N 131.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 24.0N 133.9W 1009 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.8N 172.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 14.9N 173.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 15.2N 175.8W 1005 24
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 15.1N 177.5W 1004 26

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210420

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 210236
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Two-C has weakened slightly during the past
several hours, with most of the deep convection positioned over the
western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from JTWC and HFO remain T2.0/30 kt and are generally consistent
with the objective intensity estimates. Therefore, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt, and this general
motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone
remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual
turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge
builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in
generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists
as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands
this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast
reflects a blend of the previous forecast, ECMWF, and the GFS
solutions, and generally lies near the northern side of the
guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to remain over
warm waters and within an adequately moist environment while
vertical wind shear remains relatively weak. These conditions should
support steady intensification as the system approaches the vicinity
of the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond about 72 h, increasing shear and a
progressively drier surrounding environment should induce a
weakening trend by early next week as it passes south of the
Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system
becoming a strong tropical storm this weekend, followed by gradual
weakening, and remains near the upper end of the intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands over
the next couple of days.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will begin
to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were
affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches
may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands by Friday and
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.9N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 210234
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 144.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 145.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS=

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 210234
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 145.0W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER,
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THS WEEKEND, AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS=

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 202039
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

The convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to
show some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level
circulation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite
data. The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the
subjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt,
respectively. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance
will investigate the cyclone tomorrow.

The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt,
and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so
until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is
expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few
days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in
regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is
important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi,
and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island,
should monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is
slightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in
the way of change.

The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for
the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one
hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond
that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will
also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity
forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with
gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a
little lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of
the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and
this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is
expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday
night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian
Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain
and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches
may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or
Friday and residents there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan
in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 202039
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU AUG 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 143.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H)
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THS WEEKEND, AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 202038
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 143.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 143.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 143.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 143.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 201455
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

The system that NHC has been monitoring (invest 90E) over the
central Pacific now has developed a sufficient amount of convective
organization that has been steadily increasing over the last
several hours. In addition, the low-level circulation has been
getting better defined, as evident in satellite data, therefore
the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The
ASCAT pass from last night shows that the circulation is located
near the eastern edge of the convection and generally supports an
initial intensity of about 30 kt.

The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt,
and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so
until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is
expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few
days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in
regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is
important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi,
and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island,
should monitor the progress of this system.

The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment
for the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one
hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond
that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will
also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity
forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 60 kt this weekend, with
gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies near the
high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and
this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location
and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the
latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is
expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday
night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian
Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain
and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian
Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system
Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands
tonight or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.9N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.1N 145.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 147.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.0N 149.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.3N 153.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 17.2N 158.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.3N 163.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 201454
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 143.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 143.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 142.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.4N 144.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 149.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 153.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.2N 158.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.3N 163.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 143.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=

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