Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ONE-C-26 in United States from 12 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC to 13 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ONE-C-26

in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

13/08 16:21 WTNT82EGRR131620

13/08 14:40 WTPA42PHFO131439

13/08 14:38 WTPA32PHFO131438

13/08 14:37 WTPA22PHFO131436

13/08 08:43 WTPA42PHFO130841

13/08 08:41 WTPA22PHFO130840

13/08 08:41 WTPA32PHFO130840

13/08 02:53 WTPA42PHFO130251

12/08 20:46 WTPA42PHFO122044

12/08 20:44 WTPA32PHFO122043

12/08 20:44 WTPA22PHFO122043

12/08 17:44 WTPA22PHFO121743

12/08 15:03 WTPA42PHFO121502

12/08 15:01 WTPA32PHFO121500

12/08 14:55 WTPA41PHFO121454

12/08 14:51 WTPA21PHFO121450

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 131.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 0 17.3N 131.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 12 17.1N 132.6W 1005 37
1200UTC 14.08.2026 24 15.7N 132.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 15.08.2026 36 15.2N 133.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 15.08.2026 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 39.0N 37.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 0 39.0N 37.7W 1017 22
0000UTC 14.08.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 144.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 0 14.9N 144.5W 1001 31
0000UTC 14.08.2026 12 16.3N 147.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 14.08.2026 24 16.7N 149.3W 1001 33
0000UTC 15.08.2026 36 17.5N 151.6W 1001 35
1200UTC 15.08.2026 48 18.1N 153.6W 1001 41
0000UTC 16.08.2026 60 18.9N 154.9W 1002 44
1200UTC 16.08.2026 72 20.2N 158.6W 1002 41
0000UTC 17.08.2026 84 20.4N 161.3W 999 37
1200UTC 17.08.2026 96 20.7N 163.7W 997 37
0000UTC 18.08.2026 108 21.2N 165.9W 997 41
1200UTC 18.08.2026 120 21.7N 168.3W 995 50
0000UTC 19.08.2026 132 21.8N 170.7W 990 54
1200UTC 19.08.2026 144 21.9N 172.7W 986 63
0000UTC 20.08.2026 156 22.5N 174.5W 979 67
1200UTC 20.08.2026 168 23.3N 176.6W 976 68

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 35.0N 67.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2026 60 34.5N 65.0W 1012 29
1200UTC 16.08.2026 72 34.2N 60.9W 1008 34
0000UTC 17.08.2026 84 36.3N 55.5W 998 52
1200UTC 17.08.2026 96 35.6N 53.6W 992 42
0000UTC 18.08.2026 108 37.0N 52.3W 995 34
1200UTC 18.08.2026 120 38.5N 51.3W 998 37
0000UTC 19.08.2026 132 41.1N 49.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 19.08.2026 144 44.0N 46.4W 1003 35
0000UTC 20.08.2026 156 48.1N 40.8W 1003 38
1200UTC 20.08.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.1N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2026 120 17.1N 58.5W 1013 32
0000UTC 19.08.2026 132 18.4N 60.5W 1012 31
1200UTC 19.08.2026 144 19.9N 62.3W 1012 34
0000UTC 20.08.2026 156 21.5N 63.7W 1011 40
1200UTC 20.08.2026 168 22.9N 65.4W 1009 47

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131620

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 131439
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026

Over the past several hours, deep convection has been increasing
near the center and in bands on the north side of the system. In
addition, the circulation appears less elongated and more
consolidated. Based on the improvement in its appearance, the
system now meets the criteria of a tropical storm. The initial
intensity of Lala is estimated to be 35 kt, which is near the middle
of the latest satellite intensity estimates. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lala later this
morning, and that data will be quite helpful in better assessing the
storm's intensity and structure.

Lala is moving generally westward at about 9 kt. The track forecast
philosophy appears fairly straightforward. A large mid-level high
pressure system located to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should
keep Lala on a westward to west-northwestward track, taking the core
of the system near or just south of the Big Island by early
Saturday. Lala will very likely pass south of the smaller islands
during the remainder of the weekend. The guidance has trended a bit
to the south this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged
in that direction. It is important to note, that the NHC 48-h track
error is about 50 to 60 miles.

The storm is likely to strengthen during the next couple of days as
the environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable
for the system. The NHC intensity forecast brings Lala up to 60 kt
around the time it nears the Big Island, but there is some very
skillful guidance, including the Google DeepMind and HCCA that show
it becoming a category 1 hurricane during that time. An upper-level
low is expected to develop and impart shear, helping intrude dry air
in the circulation when Lala moves to the south of the smaller
islands, and that could cause some weakening this weekend.
However, re-strengthening is forecast early next week when the
system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term,
but lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane
strength when it approaches the Big Island by early Saturday. A
Hurricane Watch has been issued for the island. Winds are expected
to be the strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and
through passes.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to
impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the island
chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are
expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern
shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized
coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.

4. Interests in the smaller islands should monitor the progress of
Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or
Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.2N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.9N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.4N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 154.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 18.7N 156.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.6N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 164.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.6N 169.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 131438
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LALA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST THU AUG 13 2026

...TROPICAL STORM LALA FORMS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 145.5W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST. LALA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, LALA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY, AND PASS SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND LALA COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM LALA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
BY EARLY SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY, AND IN SOME ELEVATED
LOCATIONS COULD BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM LALA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LALA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PIERCE=

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 131436
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LALA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 145.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 145.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 145.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.9N 146.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.4N 151.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 154.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.7N 156.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 159.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 130841
TCDCP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026

Recent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation of the disturbance
has become more circular during the past several hours. However,
the strongest winds are still located almost 200 n mi to the
northeast of the center, and the system continues to lack enough
organized convection to be called a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT
data showed 35 kt winds, and that remains the initial intensity.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 275/9 kt. A large high
pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands should steer the
system generally west-northwestward for the next several days.
While the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, the
track guidance has shifted a bit to the south of the previous
guidance suite since the last advisory, and the previous forecast,
the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean are all near the north edge of the guidance envelope.
Since reformations of the center could occur as the disturbance
organizes, the new forecast track will be nudged only a little south
of the previous track at this time. The track forecast, including
how close the center will come to Hawaii, will remain low
confidence until a better-defined center forms.

For the next two days or so, the environment looks generally
favorable for intensification. However, the ongoing sprawling
structure suggests this strengthening will be gradual. As the
system passes near Hawaii, the environment should become somewhat
less favorable due to some southwesterly shear, interaction with
the island of Hawaii, and dry air entrainment. These conditions are
likely to slow or stop intensification. The new intensity forecast
is has some minor tweaks for the previous forecast, and it lies in
the center of the intensity guidance envelope. As noted in the
previous advisory, if the system tracks farther south of Hawaii
than forecast, it would stay in more favorable conditions and
likely get stronger than forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by
Thursday night and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward
near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone
will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward
across the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.8N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1800Z 15.5N 145.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 14/0600Z 16.5N 147.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/1800Z 17.3N 150.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.0N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.7N 155.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.6N 158.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 21.2N 163.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 22.8N 169.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 130840
TCMCP2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 144.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 144.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 144.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 145.7W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 147.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.3N 150.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.7N 155.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 158.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 130840
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED AUG 12 2026

...DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...
...FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURF
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 144.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
STILL LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 130251
TCDCP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026

The disturbance remains poorly organized, with at least two
mesovortices rotating around the larger circulation. A recent
OSCAT pass also shows a very elongated circulation, with gale-force
winds confined to the northeastern quadrant. There has been some
suggestion in recent imagery that the southern side of the
circulation is becoming more dominant, but the overall system
is still too ill-defined to be considered a tropical cyclone. The
initial wind speed remains 35 kt per earlier scatterometer data.

The overall circulation envelope appears to be moving westward at
about 8 kt. A large high pressure system north of the Hawaiian
Islands should cause a west to west-northwestward track of the
disturbance for the next several days. At this point, the track
forecast is highly dependent on where a true center forms, with the
most northward model formations generally gaining the most
latitude, and the southward model solutions usually staying just
south of the Hawaiian Islands. The overall model trend is slightly
south of the previous forecast, and the new forecast is adjusted in
that direction. This should not be considered a high-confidence
prediction given the uncertainties on where a center will form.

The environment should generally be conducive for intensification
during the next few days with warm sea-surface temperatures,
low-to-moderate vertical wind shear and ample low- to mid-level
humidities in the system's path. Due to the sprawling structure,
only a gradual strengthening is anticipated. The intensity forecast
near the Hawaiian Islands is challenging because of land
interaction and an upper-low dropping near the cyclone. Models
tonight generally show a more conducive trough interaction than a
high-shear one, and the system is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. The new
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, but is
leveled off near Hawaii. This forecast could be conservative
beyond 3 days, especially if the system moves south of expected.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or
over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although
it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact
the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui Saturday, and
Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 14.8N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1200Z 15.2N 144.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 14/0000Z 16.2N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 18.1N 151.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 18.8N 154.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 21.4N 162.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 23.3N 167.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 122044
TCDCP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026

The disturbance remains a broad and sprawling system. The
associated deep convection is poorly organized and curved banding
features are currently lacking. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
showed some wind vectors near 35 kt, although these winds were
located well northeast, over 200 n mi, from the estimated center.
Therefore the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.
Note that the circulation is not well enough defined and the deep
convection is not sufficiently well-organized for the system to be
considered a tropical cyclone yet, despite the stronger winds.

Since the system has a large overall cyclonic circulation, a
unique center has become difficult to pin down. There appear
to be some swirls rotating around the overall gyre. My best
estimate of the initial motion is 260/8 kt. There hasn't been much
change to the track forecast or reasoning behind the forecast. A
large mid-level anticyclone to the north of One-C should result in
a mostly west-northwestward track over the next several days. The
official track forecast is basically unchanged from the previous
one, and close to the dynamical consensus and Google DeepMind
Guidance. Given that the system is still in the formative stage,
the precise track is still somewhat uncertain.

Sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear and low- to
mid-level humidities should support gradual strengthening during
the next few days. Based on the intensity models, the system is
expected to be nearing hurricane strength by the time it nears the
Hawaiian Islands. However, an upper-level low/trough could limit
strengthening while the system passes near or over the Islands.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or
over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although
it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact
the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui Saturday, and
Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.7N 142.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 143.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/1800Z 15.9N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 17.0N 147.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.9N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 18.6N 152.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.3N 154.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 22.9N 165.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 122043
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED AUG 12 2026

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS..

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 142.6W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 142.6 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY, AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES (445 KM)
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND IMPACTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

RAINFALL: THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN,
WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 122043
TCMCP2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 142.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 142.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 142.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 143.7W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.9N 145.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.0N 147.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 149.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 152.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.3N 154.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.9N 165.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 142.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 121743
TCMCP2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 141.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 141.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 141.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 141.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 121502
TCDCP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026

The disturbance well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so
and be near the Islands by late Friday. Given the potential for
significant impacts over the Hawaiian Islands, Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories are being initiated at this time. The system's
cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast with most of
the deep convection well to the southwest of the center. The
disturbance currently lacks sufficiently organized convection to be
classified as a tropical cyclone, and the Dvorak classifications
from Honolulu are T1.0/1.0. Scatterometer data suggests that the
intensity is near 30 kt,

Satellite fixes indicate that the system is moving generally
westward and the initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dynamical
models show a mid-level high pressure system persisting to the
north of the disturbance. This steering pattern should result in
a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days.
The simple and corrected model consensus and Google DeepMind track
predictions are in reasonable agreement, and the official forecast
follows this guidance closely. Given that the system is still in
the formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat
uncertain.

The atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for gradual
strengthening during the next few days. Based on the intensity
models, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by
the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. However, an upper-level
low/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near
or over the Islands.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward
near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected to begin
to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui on
Saturday, and across Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or early Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.0N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 121500
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2026

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE BE NEARING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 141.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.8 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND IMPACTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

RAINFALL: THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN,
WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP01.SHTML?RAINQPF

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 121454
TCDCP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026

The disturbance well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so
and be near the Islands by late Friday. Given the potential for
significant impacts over the Hawaiian Islands, Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories are being initiated at this time. The system's
cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast with most of
the deep convection well to the southwest of the center. The
disturbance currently lacks sufficiently organized convection to be
classified as a tropical cyclone, and the Dvorak classifications
from Honolulu are T1.0/1.0. Scatterometer data suggests that the
intensity is near 30 kt,

Satellite fixes indicate that the system is moving generally
westward and the initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dynamical
models show a mid-level high pressure system persisting to the
north of the disturbance. This steering pattern should result in
a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days.
The simple and corrected model consensus and Google DeepMind track
predictions are in reasonable agreement, and the official forecast
follows this guidance closely. Given that the system is still in
the formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat
uncertain.

The atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for gradual
strengthening during the next few days. Based on the intensity
models, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by
the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. However, an upper-level
low/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near
or over the Islands.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward
near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected to begin
to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui on
Saturday, and across Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or early Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.0N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 121450
TCMCP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 141.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 141.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 141.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 141.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.