Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ELIDA-26
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 201434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...ELIDA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 127.2W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida
was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 127.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 13
mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north with an increase in forward speed
is forecast the during the next couple days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken and
should dissipate within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
during the next several days. These swells will likely result in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 201435
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026

ELIDA NO LONGER POSSESSES ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IT
HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. AS
ELIDA MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
ENCOUNTERS MORE DRIER AIR AND WIND SHEAR, THE REMAINING CIRCULATION
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT, BASED ON THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
FIX OF 2.5/35 KT.

ELIDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATED AT
345/10 KT. THIS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND LIES NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH THE
CYCLONE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN A FEW
DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ELIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 26.4N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 28.5N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1200Z 31.1N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 33.6N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 37.7N 126.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 201434
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 127.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 127.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.5N 127.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.1N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 33.6N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.7N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 127.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 24.6N 127.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 127.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.2N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.0N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.7N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 36.7N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 127.2W.
20JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


0000756800
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 200847
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026

...ELIDA LOSING DEEP CONVECTION...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 127.1W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 200848
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUES
TO FADE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
DRIER AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. A RECENT PARTIAL
ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES THE SYSTEM STILL HAS WINDS OF AROUND 42 KT,
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE INTO
AN OPEN TROUGH IN A FEW DAYS. THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION, SUGGESTING THAT ELIDA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THESE
SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE.

ELIDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATED AT
340/11 KT. THIS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS, AND LIES
NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 25.3N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 200846
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 127.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 60SE 0SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 300SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 127.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.5N 126.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 126.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.0N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.7N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.6N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 34.2N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 35.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 126.8W.
20JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 742 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 200240
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026

...ELIDA BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARD COLDER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 126.8W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1725 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD
BUT GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN OVER THE FOLLOWING DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 200241
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
FINAL-T AND CI DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THE EXPECTATION THAT
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA
EARLIER TODAY SHOWED PEAK WINDS NEAR 45 KT. FURTHER GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. THE
CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 TO 36 H,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SIMULATED SATELLITE FORECASTS FROM SEVERAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, IF THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND FOR
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM TO CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT, THAT TRANSITION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

ELIDA APPEARS TO BE VERY SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT TURNS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TWEAK IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ELIDA'S TRACK, AND THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. THE REMNANTS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN UNTIL THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 24.1N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 28.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 34.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 200240
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 126.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 60SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 126.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 126.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.2N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 22.6N 125.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 125.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.4N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.1N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.7N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.9N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 37.1N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 126.0W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 192039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 125.9W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 125.9 West. Elida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm
is expected to increase in forward speed as it turns more northward
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
through early next week. These swells will likely result in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 192039
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER
CORE OF ELIDA HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
CONVECTIVE WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN CONNECTION TO THE CYCLONE MOVING
OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB CAME IN AT T3.0/55 KT, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
ASCAT PASS, WHILE PARTIAL, DID SAMPLE OF PEAK SURFACE WINDS AWAY
FROM THE CENTER OF AROUND 45 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY FOR ELIDA HAS
BEEN HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/8 KT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS A SLIGHT
NUDGE TO THE WEST WITH THIS ADVISORY, BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS AN OVERALL GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE LAST SEVERAL PERIODS.
AS SUCH ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK.

THE CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE OF ELIDA LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
BEFORE, AND THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS STARTING TO
WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES C, AND OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FURTHER AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN
ADDITION, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
ELIDA IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT
LOW ON TUESDAY, WITH THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 23.2N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 192038
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 125.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 125.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 125.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.0N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.5N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 34.0N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 36.0N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 125.4W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 191439
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...ELIDA LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 125.3W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 125.3 West. Elida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm
is expected to increase in forward speed as it turns further
northward over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
the cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
through early next week. These swells will likely result in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 191440
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON TO
SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
A 0743 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED SOME OF THE PEAK
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 45 KT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINED AT T3.5/55 KT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE OTHER DATA ON HAND, THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/8 KT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE LAST SEVERAL PERIODS.
AS SUCH ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK.

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES, THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES C. OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 26.0N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 28.6N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 31.5N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 34.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 36.0N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 191438
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 125.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 125.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 36.0N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 124.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 124.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.7N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.8N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.5N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.2N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.9N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 35.6N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 125.3W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 821 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 190833
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER,
A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 40 KT, WHILE THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB REMAINED AT T3.5/55 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SINCE THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ONLY LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/11 KT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH ELIDA LOOKS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ON GOES-18 SATELLITE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES C AND WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 21.4N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 22.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 27.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 30.2N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 35.6N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 190831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...ELIDA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 125.2W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 125.2 West. Elida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days
as the system turns northward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of
days as Elida moves over progressively cooler waters. Elida is
forecast to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate by
late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
through early next week. These swells will likely result in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 190831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 125.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 125.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 35.6N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 125.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.07.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 108.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 0 12.2N 108.5W 1008 23
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 124.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 0 19.8N 124.7W 992 38
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 21.4N 126.0W 994 38
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 23.2N 126.7W 995 40
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 25.5N 127.8W 997 38
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 27.7N 128.0W 999 36
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 30.0N 127.7W 1004 28
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 32.1N 126.8W 1009 21
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.8N 113.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 12.8N 114.3W 1003 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 13.9N 116.2W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 15.8N 118.3W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 16.7N 120.5W 1001 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 17.3N 122.2W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 17.8N 123.1W 1001 42
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 17.9N 125.1W 1000 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 18.2N 127.7W 1002 36
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 18.3N 130.7W 1001 39
1200UTC 24.07.2026 132 18.2N 133.9W 1002 37
0000UTC 25.07.2026 144 17.6N 136.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 25.07.2026 156 17.4N 139.5W 1002 32
0000UTC 26.07.2026 168 17.8N 142.2W 1005 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.6N 169.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 9.6N 170.5W 1004 25
1200UTC 24.07.2026 132 10.7N 171.6W 1002 30
0000UTC 25.07.2026 144 12.1N 174.1W 1000 34
1200UTC 25.07.2026 156 13.1N 177.2W 999 36
0000UTC 26.07.2026 168 13.2N 179.6E 997 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 28.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 29.5N 72.1W 1014 22
1200UTC 24.07.2026 132 31.3N 72.3W 1015 24
0000UTC 25.07.2026 144 33.3N 70.8W 1016 24
1200UTC 25.07.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.9N 125.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2026 144 8.8N 125.9W 1005 22
1200UTC 25.07.2026 156 8.8N 127.4W 1004 24
0000UTC 26.07.2026 168 8.9N 129.0W 1004 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.5N 100.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2026 144 11.1N 102.6W 1003 31
1200UTC 25.07.2026 156 11.1N 105.6W 1001 37
0000UTC 26.07.2026 168 11.7N 108.7W 998 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190419


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 124.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 124.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.9N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.4N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 29.0N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.4N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.9N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 124.9W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 190235
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW 26 DEGREES C. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T3.5/55 KT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/11 KT. ELIDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST WERE REQUIRED.

ELIDA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25
DEGREES C AND WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 60 H. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 4
WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 20.6N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 26.4N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 29.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 33.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 190232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...ELIDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 124.8W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 124.8 West. Elida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days
as the system turns northward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next
couple of days as Elida moves over progressively cooler waters.
Elida is forecast to become a remnant low by early Tuesday and
dissipate by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
through early next week. These swells will likely result in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 190232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.4N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 127.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 33.9N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 124.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 123.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 123.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.0N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.2N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.6N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.1N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.9N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 37.0N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 123.9W.
18JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 874 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 182034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...NO CHANGE TO ELIDA'S INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 124.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 124.0 West. Elida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
much of the weekend. An eventual turn to the north is forecast to
occur by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to begin weakening later tonight with
that weakening trend forecast to continue over the next few days as
the storm moves over cooler waters. Elida is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 182035
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR ELIDA HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. MORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INNER CORE, WHILE STILL RETAINING THE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE INNER CORE
IS STILL RAGGED. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PRESENTATION AND
STEADY STATE FIXES, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL TURNING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/9 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT
IS INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCAMPED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, AND
ONLY VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WERE MADE.

THE STORM HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY WITH ONLY A FEW
HOURS LEFT OVER WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE ACCELERATED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT A DAY. ELIDA IS
NOW EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN
ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT LOW'S CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY DAY 5, AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 182034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 123.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.07.2026 0 18.5N 123.2W 991 38
0000UTC 19.07.2026 12 20.0N 124.7W 992 37
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 21.8N 125.7W 994 37
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 23.8N 126.8W 996 41
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 26.5N 127.0W 999 36
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 29.0N 126.4W 1002 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 32.2N 125.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 34.5N 124.3W 1011 25
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.9N 114.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 12.8N 115.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 14.3N 116.6W 1003 34
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 15.5N 118.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 17.1N 120.7W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 17.3N 122.3W 1003 29
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 17.2N 123.8W 1003 39
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 17.4N 125.9W 1001 37
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 17.5N 128.6W 1001 39
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 17.9N 131.9W 1000 42
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 17.5N 135.2W 998 40
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 17.4N 138.5W 998 41
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 17.6N 141.6W 999 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.0N 98.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 9.7N 99.0W 1004 28
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 9.9N 102.0W 1002 32
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 10.3N 104.5W 1001 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 36.2N 30.1E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 36.3N 31.8E 996 32
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 36.6N 33.4E 1000 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 8.7N 128.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 8.7N 128.5W 1006 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181620


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 181609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 123.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.07.2026 18.5N 123.1W MODERATE
00UTC 19.07.2026 20.0N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2026 21.9N 125.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2026 23.9N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 26.6N 127.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 29.0N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 32.2N 125.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 34.5N 124.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.0N 84.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 27.5N 84.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.07.2026 28.1N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 28.2N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.1N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.4N 86.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.2N 86.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 29.7N 86.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 29.3N 87.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.9N 88.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.7N 90.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 29.0N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 29.4N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.9N 113.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 12.8N 115.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.07.2026 14.2N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.5N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 17.1N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 17.3N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 17.2N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 17.4N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 17.5N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.0N 131.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 17.5N 135.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 17.5N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 17.6N 141.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.0N 98.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.07.2026 9.7N 99.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.07.2026 10.0N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 10.3N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 8.8N 128.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2026 8.8N 128.6W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181609


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 123.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 123.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.1N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.9N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.4N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.9N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.4N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 35.9N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 123.4W.
18JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 181442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...ELIDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 123.3W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 123.3 West. Elida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
much of the weekend. An eventual turn to the north is forecast to
occur by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to begin weakening later today with
that weakening trend forecast to continue over the next few days as
the storm moves over cooler waters. Elida is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 181442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 123.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 123.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.9N 127.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 35.9N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 181442
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026

ELIDA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A SMALL AREA OF INNER CORE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE HAS A BEEN
A SLIGHT TREND DOWN WITH THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, WITH
ONLY DPRINT NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
CI-NUMBER HAS THE INTENSITY SET AT 3.5/55 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. BASED ON ALL OF THE FIXES, ELIDA'S INTENSITY
HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL TURNING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/9 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT
IS INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCAMPED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, AND
ONLY VERY SMALL NUDGES TO THE RIGHT WERE MADE PAST 48 HOURS.

THE STORM HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY GIVEN THAT IT ONLY
HAS A FEW HOURS LEFT OVER WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES. STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE
ACCELERATED BY AN INCREASE IN SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. ELIDA IS NOW EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION
AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT
LOW'S CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY DAY
5, AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.1N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 26.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 28.9N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 35.9N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 122.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 122.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.7N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.6N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.9N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.4N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.1N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.5N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 122.9W.
18JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 952 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 180834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...ELIDA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 122.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Elida is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A faster motion
toward the north-northwest is forecast by early Sunday, followed by
a northward turn on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today,
but weakening is expected to begin by tonight and continue for the
next few days. Elida is likely to become post-tropical on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 180835
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026

ELIDA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST IT'S LOOKED SO FAR
DURING ITS LIFETIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
IS STILL A LITTLE THIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, A
RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN PROXY-VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SOME OF THE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, IN PARTICULAR AIDT AND DPRINT,
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH, SO ELIDA'S CURRENT
INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 60 KT.

ELIDA IS STILL TURNING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR
315/8 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS INCREASINGLY STEERED
BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCAMPED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NEARLY
ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ON THIS CYCLE LIE ALONG OR TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE, THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD, ESPECIALLY FROM 48 HOURS
ONWARD.

THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE IT ONLY HAS
ABOUT 12 HOURS LEFT OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE ACCELERATED BY AN INCREASE IN SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ELIDA IS NOW EXPECTED TO LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 60 HOURS (ON
MONDAY), AND THE REMNANT LOW'S CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY DAY 5 (LATE WEDNESDAY).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 18.0N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 19.0N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 20.7N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 22.6N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 24.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 34.5N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 180834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 122.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 122.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 123.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 125.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.9N 126.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 121.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.07.2026 0 17.0N 121.9W 991 37
1200UTC 18.07.2026 12 18.6N 123.2W 990 40
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 20.4N 124.4W 991 38
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 22.7N 125.6W 993 40
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 24.8N 126.0W 996 40
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.6N 125.8W 1000 32
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 30.5N 125.1W 1004 26
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 33.4N 124.2W 1009 20
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.6N 114.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 12.6N 114.8W 1005 31
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 13.8N 116.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 15.3N 118.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 16.9N 120.8W 1004 29
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 16.8N 123.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 16.4N 125.2W 1003 32
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 16.6N 127.5W 1003 29
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 16.0N 130.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 15.7N 133.6W 1003 33
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 15.7N 137.1W 1003 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 15.7N 140.4W 1003 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 9.2N 115.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 9.2N 115.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 8.2N 117.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 7.3N 120.0W 1005 25
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 7.7N 122.4W 1004 27
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 8.0N 124.9W 1004 25
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 8.5N 127.5W 1003 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 8.7N 171.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 8.7N 170.9W 1003 25
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 9.5N 172.6W 1000 30
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 10.2N 174.8W 998 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 10.2N 176.6W 994 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 9.9N 96.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 9.8N 98.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 10.5N 100.7W 1002 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 37.2N 20.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 36.2N 21.2E 999 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180420


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 122.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 122.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.9N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.9N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.3N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 32.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 36.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 122.5W.
18JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 180232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

...ELIDA TURNS NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 122.5W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES (315 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 180233
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

ELIDA IS STILL AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL STORM. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE A PROMINENT DRY SLOT IS
EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH TAFB PROVIDING A T3.5/55 KT
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE NUMBERS RANGING
FROM 51-60 KT. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.

IT APPEARS ELIDA HAS BEGUN MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND
ITS INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9 KT. WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
LATER THIS WEEKEND WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE AGAIN, THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE LATEST SIMPLE AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

ELIDA IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE 26 C ISOTHERM. THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO CAUSE ELIDA TO LOSE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY, WITH FURTHER WEAKENING
THEREAFTER AS THE REMNANT LOW SPINS DOWN AT HIGHER LATITUDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.4N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.4N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.9N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.7N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 25.9N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 28.3N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0000Z 32.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z 36.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 180232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 122.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 122.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 123.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.9N 124.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.7N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.9N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.3N 128.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 32.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 36.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 122.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 172020
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AROUND 45
KT, WHILE THE MOST RECENT DVORAK FIXES SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 55 KT. WHILE THERE IS NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF
ELIDA, WITH THE CONVECTION BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EAST SIDE,
THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS BEING KEPT AT 55 KT. THIS COULD
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS, HOWEVER. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM,
AND TROPICAL-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 170 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, ELIDA IS STILL VERY ASYMMETRIC AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON RECENT FIXES, ELIDA'S POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH A INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 295/10 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ELIDA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY SUNDAY. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST, THUS THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

ELIDA HAS A VERY LIMITED TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATERS AND
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
ELIDA CAN BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO 60 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY AGAIN, SINCE ELIDA
IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THIS DOES KEEP THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IN-LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHOULD
BEING AROUND 24 HOURS DUE TO ELIDA MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SHEAR. ELIDA COULD LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL AROUND DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.1N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 22.9N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 24.8N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.9N 128.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1800Z 30.9N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z 34.2N 131.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 172019
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

...ELIDA'S INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 121.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A VERY LIMITED WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE, AND
ELIDA COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
START OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES (315 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 172018
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.9N 128.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 30.9N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 34.2N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 171620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 120.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.07.2026 0 16.2N 120.5W 992 37
0000UTC 18.07.2026 12 17.0N 122.1W 989 39
1200UTC 18.07.2026 24 18.7N 123.6W 987 42
0000UTC 19.07.2026 36 20.5N 125.0W 989 40
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 22.5N 126.3W 992 42
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 24.4N 126.6W 996 41
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 27.4N 126.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 30.4N 125.9W 1003 28
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 33.4N 124.8W 1008 21
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 112.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 12.2N 112.9W 1005 29
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 12.2N 115.5W 1002 39
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 13.8N 117.3W 1001 35
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 15.3N 119.2W 1001 35
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 16.2N 121.5W 1000 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 16.9N 122.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 16.7N 124.9W 998 42
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 16.9N 126.8W 995 51
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 16.5N 129.7W 989 49
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 16.1N 133.1W 988 51
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 15.6N 137.1W 985 53

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 28.7N 71.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.7N 71.4W 1011 31
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 31.0N 73.2W 1010 29
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 33.4N 73.3W 1009 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.6N 97.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 10.7N 98.7W 1005 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 9.8N 171.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 9.8N 171.8W 1003 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171620


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 171610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 120.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.07.2026 16.2N 120.5W MODERATE
00UTC 18.07.2026 17.0N 122.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.07.2026 18.6N 123.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2026 20.5N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2026 22.6N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2026 24.4N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 27.4N 126.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 30.4N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 33.3N 124.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 27.4N 85.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.07.2026 27.8N 85.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 28.3N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.1N 87.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 27.9N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 28.6N 87.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 29.2N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 29.4N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 29.1N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.4N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 27.7N 89.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 112.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 12.2N 112.9W WEAK
00UTC 20.07.2026 12.2N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.8N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.3N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 16.2N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 16.9N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 16.7N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 16.9N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 16.5N 129.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.07.2026 16.1N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 15.6N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 28.7N 71.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.7N 71.4W WEAK
00UTC 24.07.2026 31.1N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 33.4N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.5N 97.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.07.2026 10.6N 98.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 9.8N 171.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.07.2026 9.8N 171.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171610


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 120.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 120.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.5N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.7N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.4N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.0N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.1N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.0N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.4N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 33.5N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 121.0W.
17JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 989 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180400Z AND 181600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 171438
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN THAT ELIDA'S STRUCTURE HAS
NOT IMPROVED BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DRY AIR IS STILL ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION, AND THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA, THE
INTENSITY OF ELIDA IS HELD AT 55 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

BASED ON RECENT FIXES, ELIDA'S POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH A INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 300/9 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ELIDA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY SUNDAY. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST, THUS THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE MODELS DO STILL HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AT DAYS 4
AND 5.

ELIDA HAS A VERY LIMITED TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATERS AND
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, IF THE STRUCTURE CANNOT IMPROVE
QUICKLY, THEN THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO 65
KT WITH THIS ADVISORY. THIS DOES KEEP THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN-LINE
WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHOULD BEING AROUND 36
HOURS DUE TO ELIDA MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF
INCREASING SHEAR. ELIDA COULD LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 171437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

...ELIDA STILL HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 120.8W
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE, AND ELIDA COULD STILL
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO START OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 171437
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 140SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 120.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 119.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 119.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.7N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.9N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.8N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.9N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.4N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.0N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 120.3W.
17JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1019
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170900Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172200Z AND 181000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...ELIDA CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 120.2W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 120.2 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected later today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed by
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Elida could become a hurricane later today. Weakening is expected
to begin over the weekend and continue into early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170837
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026

A 0253 UTC GMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED THAT ELIDA WAS ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP A CENTRAL RING OF CONVECTION, BUT THAT PROCESS APPEARS
TO HAVE LARGELY FAILED, LIKELY DUE TO SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
INTO THE CIRCULATION. ASCAT DATA FROM 04-05 UTC ALSO INDICATED
THAT THE WIND FIELD IS QUITE ASYMMETRIC, WITH MOST OF THE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 50 KT,
AND COMBINED WITH OTHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE PREVIOUS
ANALYZED INTENSITY OF 55 KT REMAINS VALID.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT ELIDA CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD, OR 280/9 KT. THAT SAID, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS
ALREADY ENTRENCHED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE ELIDA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY SUNDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE TRACK
MODEL TREND IS FOR A FASTER, MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY, ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 4 AND 5, AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

ELIDA STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATERS AND
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, IF INNER CORE CONVECTION CAN'T
GET GOING SOON, THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, SHOWING ELIDA
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY 36-48 HOURS DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASING SHEAR, AND GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION, ELIDA COULD LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 16.1N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 19.3N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 24.9N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 29.4N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0600Z 33.0N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 170835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 120.2W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 140SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 120.2W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 124.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.9N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 29.4N 128.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 33.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 170419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 118.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.07.2026 0 16.1N 118.8W 992 42
1200UTC 17.07.2026 12 16.1N 121.2W 987 43
0000UTC 18.07.2026 24 17.1N 122.8W 982 49
1200UTC 18.07.2026 36 18.6N 124.7W 982 52
0000UTC 19.07.2026 48 20.2N 126.5W 984 52
1200UTC 19.07.2026 60 21.9N 127.7W 989 47
0000UTC 20.07.2026 72 23.5N 128.5W 993 47
1200UTC 20.07.2026 84 25.6N 129.2W 996 37
0000UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.2N 130.2W 999 34
1200UTC 21.07.2026 108 29.0N 130.7W 1004 30
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 30.3N 130.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 31.3N 130.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 31.9N 130.5W 1016 17
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.7N 115.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 72 12.7N 115.3W 1004 31
1200UTC 20.07.2026 84 14.7N 118.1W 1004 31
0000UTC 21.07.2026 96 16.1N 120.2W 1003 36
1200UTC 21.07.2026 108 17.0N 122.5W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 17.8N 124.1W 1003 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 18.8N 124.9W 1004 34
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 18.6N 126.3W 1004 31
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 17.9N 128.0W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 18.2N 130.8W 1004 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 8.1N 122.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 8.1N 123.2W 1005 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 9.9N 96.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 9.9N 96.8W 1005 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 11.5N 23.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 11.5N 23.8W 1010 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170419


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 170408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.07.2026 16.1N 118.9W MODERATE
12UTC 17.07.2026 16.1N 121.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.07.2026 17.2N 122.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.07.2026 18.6N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2026 20.3N 126.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2026 21.9N 127.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.07.2026 23.4N 128.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.07.2026 25.6N 129.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 27.2N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.9N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 30.3N 130.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 31.3N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 31.9N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.7N 115.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 12.7N 115.4W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2026 14.7N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 16.1N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 17.0N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 17.8N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 18.7N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.6N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 17.8N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2026 28.8N 86.2W WEAK
12UTC 22.07.2026 28.8N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 28.6N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.5N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.0N 89.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 8.1N 122.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2026 8.1N 123.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 9.8N 96.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2026 9.8N 96.8W WEAK

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 11.6N 23.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2026 11.6N 23.8W WEAK

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 38.6N 70.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2026 38.6N 70.3W WEAK

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 42.1N 18.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2026 42.1N 18.6E MODERATE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170408


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 260717031727
2026071700 05E ELIDA 010 01 280 08 SATL 030
T000 158N 1187W 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 164N 1204W 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 175N 1218W 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 188N 1232W 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 204N 1244W 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T060 221N 1255W 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 237N 1265W 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 275N 1280W 035 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 300N 1300W 025
AMP
096HR POST-TROPICAL
120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 118.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 118.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.4N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.5N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.8N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.4N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.1N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 119.3W.
17JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.//
0526071212 116N 954W 25
0526071218 118N 967W 25
0526071300 120N 981W 25
0526071306 123N 995W 25
0526071312 128N1010W 30
0526071318 135N1024W 30
0526071400 141N1035W 30
0526071406 144N1053W 30
0526071412 145N1071W 30
0526071418 147N1086W 30
0526071500 147N1097W 30
0526071506 150N1113W 35
0526071512 152N1128W 40
0526071518 153N1137W 45
0526071600 154N1147W 45
0526071606 155N1158W 50
0526071606 155N1158W 50
0526071612 156N1169W 50
0526071612 156N1169W 50
0526071618 157N1179W 50
0526071618 157N1179W 50
0526071700 158N1187W 55
0526071700 158N1187W 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170236
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ELIDA CONSISTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE
BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. EARLIER AMSR2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED THAT
ELIDA HAS NOT YET SOLIDIFIED AN INNER CORE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY PARTIALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THIS EVENING (49-65 KT). THE STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.

THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF ELIDA REMAINS WESTWARD (280/9 KT), BUT
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS PREDICTED. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ELIDA. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, GENERALLY FALLING
BETWEEN HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS AGAIN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96-120 H, IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BULK OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ELIDA HAS A 24-30 H WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATED NHC
FORECAST STILL SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING, WITH ELIDA PREDICTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY BASED ON ELIDA'S CURRENT STRUCTURE.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CAUSE ELIDA TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN 96 H. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.8N 123.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 27.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0000Z 30.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...ELIDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 119.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 119.1 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a
northwestward motion through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Weakening is
forecast to begin later this weekend and continue through early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of Baja California through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 170234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 128.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 117.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 117.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.3N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.7N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.3N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.1N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 29.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 118.5W.
16JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1021
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 162033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 118.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 118.3 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwestward
motion beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Friday before
reaching its peak intensity Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 162033
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CURVATURE
NOW SEEN NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET THAT
THE STORM IS DEVELOPING AN EYEWALL OR INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. A
RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED WIND VECTORS AS HIGH AS 47 KT
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS, POSSIBLE UNDERSAMPLING
ISSUES, AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/9 KT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, ELIDA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 H AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY
A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 H, WHICH
COULD VERIFY IF ELIDA STAYS VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER, THIS IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHEAR, AND
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER
THE CYCLONE SHEARS APART. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AT 120 H, AND THE 120 H
POINT IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES, SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

ELIDA HAS ABOUT 36 H OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LEFT BEFORE IT REACHES
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME, BUT
AS BEFORE THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IS A CAUTION FLAG ABOUT HOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING MIGHT OCCUR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 H. BEYOND THAT TIME, COOLER WATERS,
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING, AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 15.8N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.3N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 26.1N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 29.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 162032
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 26.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 118.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 117.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.07.2026 0 15.5N 117.6W 997 35
0000UTC 17.07.2026 12 16.3N 119.0W 994 42
1200UTC 17.07.2026 24 16.9N 121.5W 990 44
0000UTC 18.07.2026 36 17.8N 123.1W 986 47
1200UTC 18.07.2026 48 19.2N 124.9W 985 48
0000UTC 19.07.2026 60 20.9N 127.0W 989 51
1200UTC 19.07.2026 72 22.1N 128.0W 992 50
0000UTC 20.07.2026 84 23.4N 128.5W 997 43
1200UTC 20.07.2026 96 25.6N 128.8W 1001 35
0000UTC 21.07.2026 108 27.6N 129.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 21.07.2026 120 28.8N 129.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 22.07.2026 132 30.2N 129.9W 1011 20
1200UTC 22.07.2026 144 31.2N 130.1W 1014 16
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.7N 113.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 72 11.7N 113.3W 1005 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 84 13.5N 116.2W 1004 35
1200UTC 20.07.2026 96 14.6N 118.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 108 15.9N 120.4W 1003 38
1200UTC 21.07.2026 120 17.4N 122.4W 1004 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 132 18.6N 123.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 22.07.2026 144 19.4N 125.1W 1003 39
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 19.1N 126.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 19.3N 128.8W 1003 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161619


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 117.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.07.2026 15.5N 117.6W MODERATE
00UTC 17.07.2026 16.3N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.07.2026 16.8N 121.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.07.2026 17.8N 123.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.07.2026 19.2N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2026 20.9N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2026 22.0N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2026 23.4N 128.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.07.2026 25.6N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 27.5N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.8N 129.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 30.2N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 31.2N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.7N 113.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 11.7N 113.3W WEAK
00UTC 20.07.2026 13.4N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 14.6N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.8N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 17.5N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 18.6N 123.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 19.4N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 19.2N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 19.3N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.07.2026 29.1N 63.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.07.2026 32.3N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161608


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 116.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 116.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.9N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.6N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.2N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.2N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.7N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 117.5W.
16JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170400Z AND 171600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 161435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026

...ELIDA STILL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 117.4W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ELIDA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY BEFORE
REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 161435
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026

THERE HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ELIDA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THESE TOPS
ARE IN A RECTANGULAR BLOCK RATHER THAN A CURVED BAND. A JUST-
RECEIVED GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION WAS
LOCATED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND, WHILE THERE WAS SOME
CURVATURE IT WAS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THESE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THIS,
ELIDA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH 72 H, BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AFTER THAT. THE MODELS THAT
FORECAST ELIDA TO REMAIN VERTICALLY DEEP, SUCH AS THE GFS AND THE
HAFS MODELS, SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHEARS THE CYCLONE APART AND KEEPS THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ELIDA WILL BE WEAKENING
OVER COLD WATER BY THAT TIME, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 H, AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AT 120 H.

ELIDA HAS 36-48 H OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LEFT BEFORE THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS IT REACHING DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IS A CAUTION FLAG ABOUT HOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING MIGHT OCCUR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36-48 H. AFTER THAT, COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING, AND ELIDA
IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 H. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH
24 H, AND IT LIES NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN
36-120 H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.7N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 22.2N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 25.2N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 27.7N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 161434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 117.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 117.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 116.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.2N 125.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.2N 127.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.7N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 117.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.7N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.4N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.8N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.2N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.3N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.6N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 116.5W.
16JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1034
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...ELIDA HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 116.5W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Thursday night, followed by a
northwestward motion beginning Friday and continuing through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Elida is expected to become a hurricane Thursday night or early
Friday before reaching its peak intensity on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160832
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF ELIDA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T3.5/55 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 47 TO 55 KT. GIVEN
THE STEADY SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 275/10 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL
MOTION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 H, THEN TO THE RIGHT THEREAFTER, TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE LATEST
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DEEP MOISTURE, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
WHILE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER, HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.6N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.4N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 19.8N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.2N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 24.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 26.6N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 160830
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 116.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 116.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.8N 123.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.2N 124.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.6N 129.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 115.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.07.2026 0 15.5N 115.2W 999 36
1200UTC 16.07.2026 12 15.9N 118.0W 998 34
0000UTC 17.07.2026 24 16.1N 119.5W 995 40
1200UTC 17.07.2026 36 16.9N 121.8W 992 41
0000UTC 18.07.2026 48 17.7N 123.9W 988 45
1200UTC 18.07.2026 60 18.8N 125.5W 987 49
0000UTC 19.07.2026 72 20.0N 127.4W 991 49
1200UTC 19.07.2026 84 21.0N 128.7W 994 51
0000UTC 20.07.2026 96 21.3N 129.7W 998 37
1200UTC 20.07.2026 108 21.9N 131.2W 1001 31
0000UTC 21.07.2026 120 22.7N 133.0W 1004 27
1200UTC 21.07.2026 132 23.4N 135.7W 1007 24
0000UTC 22.07.2026 144 24.0N 138.1W 1009 25
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.1N 113.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 84 12.1N 113.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 20.07.2026 96 13.0N 116.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 20.07.2026 108 13.9N 118.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 21.07.2026 120 15.6N 120.8W 1001 41
1200UTC 21.07.2026 132 17.0N 122.8W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 144 17.6N 124.3W 1001 39
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 18.1N 126.0W 1000 45
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 18.0N 128.3W 1000 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160419


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.07.2026 15.6N 115.1W MODERATE
12UTC 16.07.2026 15.9N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2026 16.1N 119.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.07.2026 16.9N 121.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.07.2026 17.7N 123.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.07.2026 18.9N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2026 20.1N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2026 21.0N 128.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2026 21.3N 129.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 21.9N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 22.7N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 23.5N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 24.0N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.0N 113.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 12.0N 113.9W WEAK
00UTC 20.07.2026 13.1N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.9N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.6N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 17.0N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 17.7N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 18.1N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.0N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.07.2026 27.9N 63.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.07.2026 30.6N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160408


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 114.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 114.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.2N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.6N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.1N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 115.4W.
16JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026

...ELIDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ELIDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160238
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ELIDA HAS IMPROVED THIS EVENING.
EARLIER AMSR-2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A FORMATIVE INNER
CORE COULD BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION (T3.5/55 KT) AND UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. THE CENTER OF
ELIDA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES
USING 20 UTC OSCAT WIND DATA AND THE 37 GHZ AMSR-2 IMAGERY.

ELIDA IS MOVING WESTWARD (275 DEGREES) AT 11 KT WHILE BEING STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, ELIDA IS
PREDICTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD AT LATER FORECAST PERIODS, OVERALL THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION FROM 48-120 H, FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA)
AND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM, ELIDA MAY BE ABLE TO SOLIDIFY AN INNER CORE AND QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOIST, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER 29-30 C WATERS, AND THE UPDATED
NHC FORECAST SHOWS ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 48 H. THIS FORECAST TRENDS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, GENERALLY CLOSE TO HCCA BUT LOWER
THAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AIDS (SHIPS/LGEM). ELIDA WILL
REACH MUCH COOLER WATERS BY SATURDAY AND THEN ENCOUNTER A DRIER,
HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, STEADY
WEAKENING IS PREDICTED FROM 60-120 H, AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 160237
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 114.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 114.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.8N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.3N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.9N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.0N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.2N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.8N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.4N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 114.8W.
15JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1039
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 999
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 152040
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST WED JUL 15 2026

THE STRUCTURE OF ELIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BASED ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DRY AIR
AND A BIT OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR ARE IMPACTING THE GROWTH OF ELIDA AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, BASED ON THE IMPROVEMENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE REMAINING AT T3.0/45 KT, AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING WIDELY FROM 38 TO 57 KT, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT.

BASED ON THE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, ELIDA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 280/12 KT. A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERWARDS, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ELIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW ELIDA TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON, BUT ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
NOTABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND EAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
THE GDMI, HCCA, AND TVCN TRACK GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH PLENTY OF
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, AND THIS COULD BE IMPORTING
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THUS, SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW. A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN
36-48 H IF THE STORM DEVELOPS A INNER CORE. AFTER 60 H, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE SAME 80-KT PEAK AS THE PRIOR CYCLE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF HCCA, BUT STILL HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.7N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 152038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 114.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 114.6 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn to
the west-northwest and northwest over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or
so followed by a somewhat faster rate of intensification. Elida is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 152038
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 115SE 80SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2026 0 15.3N 113.2W 1003 30
0000UTC 16.07.2026 12 15.5N 116.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 16.07.2026 24 15.7N 118.2W 998 39
0000UTC 17.07.2026 36 16.2N 120.2W 995 40
1200UTC 17.07.2026 48 16.6N 122.5W 991 43
0000UTC 18.07.2026 60 17.5N 124.3W 987 45
1200UTC 18.07.2026 72 18.8N 126.0W 987 50
0000UTC 19.07.2026 84 20.0N 127.5W 989 48
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 21.2N 129.1W 993 49
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 21.4N 130.5W 997 35
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 21.4N 132.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 21.9N 134.9W 1004 29
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 22.3N 138.1W 1007 26
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 23.1N 141.3W 1010 24
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 24.2N 145.0W 1012 25

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.1N 52.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2026 0 34.1N 52.5W 1014 26
0000UTC 16.07.2026 12 36.1N 49.9W 1013 28
1200UTC 16.07.2026 24 36.8N 47.7W 1014 24
0000UTC 17.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.6N 110.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 84 11.6N 110.1W 1005 32
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 13.1N 114.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 12.9N 116.4W 1002 43
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 14.4N 118.7W 1001 45
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 15.6N 120.5W 999 45
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 17.2N 122.2W 997 44
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 17.7N 124.0W 994 48
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 17.8N 126.0W 992 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151619


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.2N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.5N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 113.7W.
15JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1069
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 151438
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026


ELIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AFTER A NOCTURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, EARLIER
DATA FROM THE NEW AMSR-3 MICROWAVE IMAGER SHOWED THAT THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS TILTED WITH HEIGHT, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T3.0/45 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED BETWEEN
39-44 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ELIDA POSITION WAS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING
WESTWARD AT 280/13 KT. A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERWARDS,
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ELIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
ELIDA TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON, BUT ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES NOTABLY BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE NORTH OVER THE FIRST 24 H, DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
ADJUSTMENT, BUT CONVERGES CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN (GDMI).

THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER A VERY WARM OCEAN SEA-SURFACE
(30 C) AND EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, ELIDA'S
VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS TILTED TO THE SOUTH WITH HEIGHT, AND SHEAR
ANALYSIS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW EVIDENCE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THUS, SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE GRADUAL SIDE. ASSUMING ELIDA
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND DEVELOPS AN INNER CORE, A FASTER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN 36-48 H. AFTER 60 H, THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK THAN THE PRIOR CYCLE, BUT STILL REMAINS ON
THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
LATEST GDMI AND HCCA AIDS, BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.4N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 151436
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...ELIDA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 113.5 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn to
the west-northwest and northwest over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or
so followed by a somewhat faster rate of intensification. Elida is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Katz


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 151435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150836
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS -85 DEGREES C. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO T3.0/45 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 34 TO 40 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT, MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA.

ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 275/13 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD SUPPORT THIS WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H.
THEREAFTER, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BEGINS TO STEADILY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACK
AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH ELIDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.9N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.2N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.9N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.3N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 111.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 111.8 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn
toward the northwest at a slower speed is expected by Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Elida
is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night and reach its
peak intensity on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 122.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.9N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.07.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2026 0 14.9N 110.8W 1004 31
1200UTC 15.07.2026 12 15.0N 113.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 16.07.2026 24 14.9N 116.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 16.07.2026 36 15.3N 118.1W 999 37
0000UTC 17.07.2026 48 15.5N 119.9W 995 37
1200UTC 17.07.2026 60 16.7N 121.2W 993 41
0000UTC 18.07.2026 72 17.5N 123.3W 989 44
1200UTC 18.07.2026 84 19.1N 125.1W 988 47
0000UTC 19.07.2026 96 20.6N 127.1W 990 50
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 21.9N 128.3W 994 45
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 22.4N 129.3W 999 35
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 23.2N 130.5W 1002 31
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 24.3N 131.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 25.4N 133.6W 1008 24
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 26.7N 134.7W 1010 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 32.8N 54.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2026 12 33.7N 53.3W 1014 23
0000UTC 16.07.2026 24 35.7N 50.8W 1014 26
1200UTC 16.07.2026 36 38.6N 46.7W 1013 25
0000UTC 17.07.2026 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.6N 165.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.07.2026 36 12.6N 165.8W 1004 28
0000UTC 17.07.2026 48 13.6N 167.0W 1005 30
1200UTC 17.07.2026 60 14.8N 168.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 18.07.2026 72 14.9N 169.6W 1005 38
1200UTC 18.07.2026 84 14.9N 171.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 19.07.2026 96 14.5N 173.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 14.8N 176.2W 1008 24
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.6N 115.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 13.9N 116.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 15.2N 118.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 16.5N 121.1W 1003 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 17.4N 122.4W 1003 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 18.0N 123.5W 1002 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150420


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE-E) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE-E) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 109.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 109.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.9N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.3N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.8N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.8N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.4N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 110.6W.
15JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150233
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND
ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T2.5/35 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE ADT AND AIDT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE HOVERING AROUND
30 KT. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD, WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/14 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THIS WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT BEGINS TO STEADILY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
TRACK AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 14.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 14.9N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.0N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.8N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.8N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 22.8N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.9N 112.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 121.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 142040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 142040
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

OVER THE PAST DAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
(96E) HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T-2.5/35 KT. A RECENT ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWS A CLOSED, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION,
WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT SUPPORT A 30-KT INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS,
AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE LOW NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ARE BEING
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/16 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
SPREAD AFTER THAT. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE TVCN SIMPLE CONSENSUS
MODELS.

THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVELING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE WORKS ON DEVELOPING A CORE. AFTER THAT TIME, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE
AND HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE, IN BETWEEN THE
WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE STRONGER STATISTICAL MODELS.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN WHAT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 142040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=