Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ELIDA-26 Off-shore from 14 Jul 2026 21:00 UTC to 15 Jul 2026 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ELIDA-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

15/07 20:41 WTPZ45KNHC152040

15/07 20:41 WTPZ35KNHC152038

15/07 20:39 WTPZ25KNHC152038

15/07 16:20 WTNT82EGRR151619

15/07 15:33 WTPN31PHNC151600

15/07 14:39 WTPZ45KNHC151438

15/07 14:38 WTPZ35KNHC151436

15/07 14:36 WTPZ25KNHC151435

15/07 08:37 WTPZ45KNHC150836

15/07 08:36 WTPZ35KNHC150834

15/07 08:35 WTPZ25KNHC150834

15/07 04:20 WTNT82EGRR150420

15/07 03:04 WTPN31PHNC150400

15/07 02:34 WTPZ35KNHC150233

15/07 02:34 WTPZ45KNHC150233

15/07 02:32 WTPZ25KNHC150232

14/07 20:41 WTPZ35KNHC142040

14/07 20:41 WTPZ45KNHC142040

14/07 20:40 WTPZ25KNHC142040

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 152040
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST WED JUL 15 2026

THE STRUCTURE OF ELIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BASED ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DRY AIR
AND A BIT OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR ARE IMPACTING THE GROWTH OF ELIDA AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, BASED ON THE IMPROVEMENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE REMAINING AT T3.0/45 KT, AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING WIDELY FROM 38 TO 57 KT, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT.

BASED ON THE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, ELIDA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 280/12 KT. A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERWARDS, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ELIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW ELIDA TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON, BUT ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
NOTABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND EAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
THE GDMI, HCCA, AND TVCN TRACK GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH PLENTY OF
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, AND THIS COULD BE IMPORTING
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THUS, SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW. A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN
36-48 H IF THE STORM DEVELOPS A INNER CORE. AFTER 60 H, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE SAME 80-KT PEAK AS THE PRIOR CYCLE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF HCCA, BUT STILL HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.7N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 152038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 114.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 114.6 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn to
the west-northwest and northwest over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or
so followed by a somewhat faster rate of intensification. Elida is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 152038
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 115SE 80SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2026 0 15.3N 113.2W 1003 30
0000UTC 16.07.2026 12 15.5N 116.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 16.07.2026 24 15.7N 118.2W 998 39
0000UTC 17.07.2026 36 16.2N 120.2W 995 40
1200UTC 17.07.2026 48 16.6N 122.5W 991 43
0000UTC 18.07.2026 60 17.5N 124.3W 987 45
1200UTC 18.07.2026 72 18.8N 126.0W 987 50
0000UTC 19.07.2026 84 20.0N 127.5W 989 48
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 21.2N 129.1W 993 49
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 21.4N 130.5W 997 35
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 21.4N 132.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 21.9N 134.9W 1004 29
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 22.3N 138.1W 1007 26
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 23.1N 141.3W 1010 24
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 24.2N 145.0W 1012 25

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.1N 52.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2026 0 34.1N 52.5W 1014 26
0000UTC 16.07.2026 12 36.1N 49.9W 1013 28
1200UTC 16.07.2026 24 36.8N 47.7W 1014 24
0000UTC 17.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.6N 110.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 84 11.6N 110.1W 1005 32
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 13.1N 114.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 12.9N 116.4W 1002 43
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 14.4N 118.7W 1001 45
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 15.6N 120.5W 999 45
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 17.2N 122.2W 997 44
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 17.7N 124.0W 994 48
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 17.8N 126.0W 992 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151619

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.2N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.5N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 113.7W.
15JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1069
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 151438
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026

ELIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AFTER A NOCTURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, EARLIER
DATA FROM THE NEW AMSR-3 MICROWAVE IMAGER SHOWED THAT THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS TILTED WITH HEIGHT, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T3.0/45 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED BETWEEN
39-44 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ELIDA POSITION WAS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING
WESTWARD AT 280/13 KT. A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERWARDS,
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ELIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
ELIDA TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON, BUT ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES NOTABLY BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE NORTH OVER THE FIRST 24 H, DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
ADJUSTMENT, BUT CONVERGES CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN (GDMI).

THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER A VERY WARM OCEAN SEA-SURFACE
(30 C) AND EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, ELIDA'S
VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS TILTED TO THE SOUTH WITH HEIGHT, AND SHEAR
ANALYSIS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW EVIDENCE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THUS, SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE GRADUAL SIDE. ASSUMING ELIDA
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND DEVELOPS AN INNER CORE, A FASTER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN 36-48 H. AFTER 60 H, THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK THAN THE PRIOR CYCLE, BUT STILL REMAINS ON
THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
LATEST GDMI AND HCCA AIDS, BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.4N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 151436
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
800 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...ELIDA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 113.5 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn to
the west-northwest and northwest over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or
so followed by a somewhat faster rate of intensification. Elida is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Katz

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 151435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150836
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS -85 DEGREES C. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO T3.0/45 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 34 TO 40 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT, MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA.

ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 275/13 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD SUPPORT THIS WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H.
THEREAFTER, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BEGINS TO STEADILY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACK
AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH ELIDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.9N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.2N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.9N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.3N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026
200 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 111.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 111.8 West. Elida is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn
toward the northwest at a slower speed is expected by Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Elida
is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night and reach its
peak intensity on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 122.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.9N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.07.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2026 0 14.9N 110.8W 1004 31
1200UTC 15.07.2026 12 15.0N 113.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 16.07.2026 24 14.9N 116.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 16.07.2026 36 15.3N 118.1W 999 37
0000UTC 17.07.2026 48 15.5N 119.9W 995 37
1200UTC 17.07.2026 60 16.7N 121.2W 993 41
0000UTC 18.07.2026 72 17.5N 123.3W 989 44
1200UTC 18.07.2026 84 19.1N 125.1W 988 47
0000UTC 19.07.2026 96 20.6N 127.1W 990 50
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 21.9N 128.3W 994 45
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 22.4N 129.3W 999 35
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 23.2N 130.5W 1002 31
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 24.3N 131.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 25.4N 133.6W 1008 24
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 26.7N 134.7W 1010 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 32.8N 54.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.07.2026 12 33.7N 53.3W 1014 23
0000UTC 16.07.2026 24 35.7N 50.8W 1014 26
1200UTC 16.07.2026 36 38.6N 46.7W 1013 25
0000UTC 17.07.2026 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.6N 165.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.07.2026 36 12.6N 165.8W 1004 28
0000UTC 17.07.2026 48 13.6N 167.0W 1005 30
1200UTC 17.07.2026 60 14.8N 168.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 18.07.2026 72 14.9N 169.6W 1005 38
1200UTC 18.07.2026 84 14.9N 171.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 19.07.2026 96 14.5N 173.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 14.8N 176.2W 1008 24
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.6N 115.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 13.9N 116.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 15.2N 118.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 16.5N 121.1W 1003 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 17.4N 122.4W 1003 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 18.0N 123.5W 1002 35

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150420

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE-E) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE-E) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 109.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 109.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.9N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.3N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.8N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.8N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.4N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 110.6W.
15JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150233
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND
ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T2.5/35 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE ADT AND AIDT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE HOVERING AROUND
30 KT. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD, WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/14 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THIS WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT BEGINS TO STEADILY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
TRACK AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 14.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 14.9N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.0N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.8N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.8N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 22.8N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.9N 112.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 121.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 142040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 142040
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

OVER THE PAST DAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
(96E) HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T-2.5/35 KT. A RECENT ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWS A CLOSED, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION,
WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT SUPPORT A 30-KT INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS,
AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE LOW NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ARE BEING
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/16 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
SPREAD AFTER THAT. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE TVCN SIMPLE CONSENSUS
MODELS.

THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVELING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE WORKS ON DEVELOPING A CORE. AFTER THAT TIME, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE
AND HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE, IN BETWEEN THE
WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE STRONGER STATISTICAL MODELS.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN WHAT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 142040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=

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