Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NOKAEN-26 in Philippines from 14 Jan 2026 12:00 UTC to 20 Jan 2026 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NOKAEN-26

in Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

20/01 13:06 WTPQ30RJTD201200

20/01 12:41 WTPQ50RJTD201200

20/01 12:41 WTJP21RJTD201200

20/01 09:42 WTPQ50RJTD200900

20/01 08:32 WTPQ31PGUM200830

20/01 08:10 WTPN51PGTW200900

20/01 08:07 WTPN31PGTW200900

20/01 07:13 WTPQ30RJTD200600

20/01 06:41 WTPQ50RJTD200600

20/01 06:40 WTJP21RJTD200600

20/01 03:41 WTPQ50RJTD200300

20/01 03:41 WTPN51PGTW200300

20/01 03:41 WTPN31PGTW200300

20/01 01:09 WTPQ30RJTD200000

20/01 00:44 WTPQ50RJTD200000

20/01 00:43 WTJP21RJTD200000

19/01 21:43 WTPQ50RJTD192100

19/01 19:25 WTPQ30RJTD191800

19/01 18:46 WTPQ50RJTD191800

19/01 18:45 WTJP21RJTD191800

19/01 15:47 WTPQ50RJTD191500

19/01 13:51 WTPN51PGTW191500

19/01 13:46 WTPQ30RJTD191200

19/01 12:48 WTPQ50RJTD191200

19/01 12:47 WTJP21RJTD191200

19/01 09:48 WTPQ50RJTD190900

19/01 08:01 WTPN51PGTW190900

19/01 07:14 WTPQ30RJTD190600

19/01 06:41 WTJP21RJTD190600

19/01 06:41 WTPQ50RJTD190600

19/01 03:42 WTPQ50RJTD190300

19/01 01:50 WTPN51PGTW190300

19/01 01:25 WTPQ30RJTD190000

19/01 00:41 WTPQ50RJTD190000

19/01 00:40 WTJP21RJTD190000

18/01 21:41 WTPQ50RJTD182100

18/01 19:57 WTPN51PGTW182100

18/01 19:56 WTPN31PGTW182100

18/01 19:01 WTPQ30RJTD181800

18/01 18:41 WTPQ50RJTD181800

18/01 18:41 WTJP21RJTD181800

18/01 15:42 WTPQ50RJTD181500

18/01 14:09 WTPN31PGTW181500

18/01 14:09 WTPN51PGTW181500

18/01 13:14 WTPQ30RJTD181200

18/01 12:40 WTPQ50RJTD181200

18/01 12:40 WTJP21RJTD181200

18/01 09:41 WTPQ50RJTD180900

18/01 07:58 WTPN51PGTW180900

18/01 07:37 WTSS20VHHH180745

18/01 07:15 WTPQ30RJTD180600

18/01 06:45 WTPQ50RJTD180600

18/01 06:45 WTJP21RJTD180600

18/01 04:33 WTSS20VHHH180445

18/01 03:46 WTPQ50RJTD180300

18/01 02:01 WTPN51PGTW180300

18/01 01:48 WTPQ30RJTD180000

18/01 01:34 WTSS20VHHH180145

18/01 00:47 WTJP21RJTD180000

18/01 00:47 WTPQ50RJTD180000

17/01 22:51 WTSS20VHHH172245

17/01 21:42 WTPQ50RJTD172100

17/01 20:00 WTPN51PGTW172100

17/01 19:18 WTPQ30RJTD171800

17/01 18:42 WTPQ50RJTD171800

17/01 18:42 WTJP21RJTD171800

17/01 16:33 WTSS20VHHH171645

17/01 15:44 WTPQ50RJTD171500

17/01 13:43 WTPN51PGTW171500

17/01 13:37 WTPN31PGTW171500

17/01 13:33 WTSS20VHHH171345

17/01 13:24 WTPQ30RJTD171200

17/01 12:41 WTJP21RJTD171200

17/01 12:41 WTPQ50RJTD171200

17/01 10:33 WTSS20VHHH171045

17/01 09:43 WTPQ50RJTD170900

17/01 07:40 WTPN51PGTW170900

17/01 07:12 WTPQ30RJTD170600

17/01 06:46 WTPQ50RJTD170600

17/01 06:45 WTJP21RJTD170600

17/01 03:42 WTPQ50RJTD170300

17/01 02:01 WTPN31PGTW170300

17/01 02:00 WTPN51PGTW170300

17/01 01:18 WTPQ30RJTD170000

17/01 00:41 WTJP21RJTD170000

17/01 00:41 WTPQ50RJTD170000

16/01 21:42 WTPQ50RJTD162100

16/01 20:04 WTPN51PGTW162100

16/01 20:01 WTPN31PGTW162100

16/01 19:50 WTPQ30RJTD161800

16/01 18:45 WTPQ50RJTD161800

16/01 18:45 WTJP21RJTD161800

16/01 15:43 WTPQ50RJTD161500

16/01 13:49 WTPN31PGTW161500

16/01 13:49 WTPN51PGTW161500

16/01 13:35 WTPQ30RJTD161200

16/01 12:47 WTPQ50RJTD161200

16/01 12:46 WTJP21RJTD161200

16/01 09:42 WTPQ50RJTD160900

16/01 07:57 WTPN51PGTW160900

16/01 07:56 WTPN31PGTW160900

16/01 07:15 WTPQ30RJTD160600

16/01 06:47 WTPQ50RJTD160600

16/01 06:46 WTJP21RJTD160600

16/01 03:41 WTPQ50RJTD160300

16/01 01:53 WTPN51PGTW160300

16/01 01:48 WTPQ30RJTD160000

16/01 00:47 WTPQ50RJTD160000

16/01 00:47 WTJP21RJTD160000

15/01 21:39 WTPQ50RJTD152100

15/01 20:18 WTPQ30RJTD151800

15/01 19:54 WTPN31PGTW152100

15/01 19:54 WTPN51PGTW152100

15/01 18:50 WTPQ50RJTD151800

15/01 18:50 WTJP21RJTD151800

15/01 15:45 WTPQ50RJTD151500

15/01 14:14 WTPN51PGTW151500

15/01 13:41 WTPQ30RJTD151200

15/01 12:42 WTPQ50RJTD151200

15/01 12:42 WTJP21RJTD151200

15/01 09:38 WTPQ50RJTD150900

15/01 07:55 WTPN51PGTW150900

15/01 07:48 WTPQ30RJTD150600

15/01 07:18 WTPQ50RJTD150600

15/01 07:18 WTJP21RJTD150600

15/01 02:01 WTPN51PGTW150300

14/01 21:14 WTPQ31PGUM142113

14/01 20:55 WTPN51PGTW142100

14/01 14:51 WTPQ31PGUM141450

14/01 14:22 WTPN51PGTW141500

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 17.3N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE ESE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 210000UTC 16.4N 133.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 211200UTC 14.5N 133.6E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 17.3N 131.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 16.4N 133.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 14.5N 133.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 17.4N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE ESE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 202100UTC 16.5N 132.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE SE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 210900UTC 14.8N 133.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 200830
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nokaen (01W) Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP012026
630 PM ChST Tue Jan 20 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN HAS MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST AND HAS ENTERED
BACK INTO THE REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.6N 130.8E

About 740 miles northwest of Yap
About 750 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 970 miles west-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...east-northeast...70 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen
was located near Latitude 17.6 degrees North and Longitude
130.8 degrees East, well west-northwest of the Marianas and
well northwest of Yap and Palau. Nokaen is moving east-northeast
at 15 mph. It is expected to make a turn toward the southeast with
a decrease in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. Nokaen is
forecast to maintain this intensity through Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
115 miles to the northwest and up to 70 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Wednesday morning.

$$

IC

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260120074950
2026012006 01W NOKAEN 023 01 070 13 SATL 060
T000 177N 1303E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 172N 1321E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 159N 1330E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.2N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.9N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 130.8E.
20JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 149N1254E 30
0126011812 154N1255E 25
0126011818 160N1257E 30
0126011900 165N1263E 35
0126011906 167N1271E 35
0126011912 172N1277E 35
0126011918 170N1281E 35
0126012000 172N1290E 35
0126012006 177N1303E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.2N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.9N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 130.8E.
20JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 130.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 18.0N 130.4E FAIR
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 201800UTC 16.8N 132.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE ESE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 210600UTC 15.4N 133.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 18.0N 130.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.8N 132.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 15.4N 133.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 18.1N 129.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 201500UTC 16.9N 131.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE ESE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 210300UTC 15.8N 132.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE SE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 220000UTC 12.3N 132.9E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260120021027
2026012000 01W NOKAEN 022 01 070 10 SATL 060
T000 173N 1291E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 172N 1309E 035 R034 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 162N 1321E 030
T036 147N 1330E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 022
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.2N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.7N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 129.5E.
20JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 149N1254E 30
0126011812 154N1255E 25
0126011818 160N1257E 30
0126011900 165N1263E 35
0126011906 167N1271E 35
0126011912 172N1277E 35
0126011918 170N1281E 30
0126012000 173N1291E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 022
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.2N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.7N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 129.5E.
20JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 17.9N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 201200UTC 17.1N 131.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 210000UTC 16.0N 132.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE SE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 220000UTC 12.3N 132.9E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 17.9N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 17.1N 131.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 16.0N 132.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 12.3N 132.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 16.9N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 16.3N 132.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 211800UTC 12.9N 133.1E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 127.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 16.7N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 16.7N 131.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 211800UTC 12.9N 133.1E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 16.7N 127.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.7N 131.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 12.9N 133.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 16.6N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 17.1N 131.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 211200UTC 14.1N 132.4E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260119133550
2026011912 01W NOKAEN 020 01 050 05 SATL 060
T000 170N 1270E 030
T012 175N 1287E 030
T024 175N 1304E 030
T036 165N 1317E 030
T048 146N 1321E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.4E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
375 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 149N1254E 30
0126011812 154N1255E 25
0126011818 160N1257E 30
0126011900 166N1265E 35
0126011906 167N1266E 35
0126011912 170N1270E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 127.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 16.6N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 17.3N 130.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 211200UTC 14.1N 132.4E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 16.6N 127.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 17.3N 130.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 14.1N 132.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 16.4N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 17.5N 130.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 210600UTC 16.3N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220600UTC 12.2N 132.6E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260119074847
2026011906 01W NOKAEN 019 01 045 01 SATL 060
T000 167N 1266E 035 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 173N 1281E 040 R034 060 NE QD 005 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 176N 1296E 040 R034 030 NE QD 005 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 172N 1310E 035 R034 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 157N 1319E 035 R034 070 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 120N 1314E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.3N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.2N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.0N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 127.0E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 149N1254E 30
0126011812 154N1255E 25
0126011818 160N1257E 30
0126011900 166N1265E 35
0126011906 167N1266E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 16.3N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 17.7N 129.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 16.3N 132.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 12.2N 132.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 16.3N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 17.7N 129.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 210600UTC 16.3N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220600UTC 12.2N 132.6E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 16.2N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 17.8N 129.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 210000UTC 17.4N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220000UTC 13.8N 132.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260119012849
2026011900 01W NOKAEN 018 01 055 09 SATL 060
T000 166N 1265E 035 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 172N 1277E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 177N 1291E 040 R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 177N 1308E 040 R034 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 169N 1317E 040 R034 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 145N 1319E 030
T096 103N 1305E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.9N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 126.8E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 149N1254E 30
0126011812 154N1255E 25
0126011818 161N1257E 30
0126011900 166N1265E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 16.6N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 17.7N 128.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 210000UTC 17.4N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220000UTC 13.8N 132.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 16.6N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 17.7N 128.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 17.4N 132.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 13.8N 132.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 16.6N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 17.3N 128.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 201800UTC 17.4N 131.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 211800UTC 15.3N 134.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE SE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 221800UTC 11.1N 132.4E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260118194625
2026011818 01W NOKAEN 017 01 015 07 SATL 050
T000 161N 1257E 030
T012 168N 1266E 035 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 173N 1280E 035 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 176N 1293E 040 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 167N 1303E 040 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 145N 1309E 030
T096 112N 1299E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.3N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 125.9E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
286 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 149N1254E 30
0126011812 154N1255E 25
0126011818 161N1257E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.3N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 125.9E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
286 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 16.5N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.5N 125.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 17.0N 127.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 201800UTC 17.4N 131.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211800UTC 15.3N 134.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE SE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 221800UTC 11.1N 132.4E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 16.5N 125.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 17.0N 127.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 17.4N 131.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 15.3N 134.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 11.1N 132.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 15.7N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 16.8N 127.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 201200UTC 16.9N 130.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 211200UTC 15.2N 132.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 221200UTC 11.2N 131.2E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 125.9E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
276 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260118134418
2026011812 01W NOKAEN 016 01 015 07 SATL 060
T000 153N 1257E 030
T012 162N 1264E 030
T024 167N 1276E 035 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 170N 1289E 040 R034 080 NE QD 005 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 169N 1303E 040 R034 080 NE QD 005 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 155N 1313E 030
T096 134N 1314E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 125.9E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
276 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 146N1255E 35
0126011812 153N1257E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT03 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
CURRENT INFIRM STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 15.5N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 16.8N 127.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 201200UTC 16.9N 130.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211200UTC 15.2N 132.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 221200UTC 11.2N 131.2E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 15.5N 125.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 16.8N 127.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 16.9N 130.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 15.2N 132.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 11.2N 131.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 15.3N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 16.6N 126.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 200600UTC 17.3N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 210600UTC 15.4N 130.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 220600UTC 11.4N 129.3E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260118074645
2026011806 01W NOKAEN 015 01 045 03 SATL 045
T000 146N 1255E 035 R034 015 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 155N 1260E 035 R034 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 162N 1270E 035 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 166N 1284E 040 R034 070 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 166N 1300E 040 R034 080 NE QD 010 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 156N 1310E 030
T096 121N 1307E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.5N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.2N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.6N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 125.6E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 142N1252E 40
0126011800 144N1253E 35
0126011806 146N1255E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 180745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE TWO
FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (130.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 15.0N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 16.8N 126.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 200600UTC 17.3N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 210600UTC 15.4N 130.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 220600UTC 11.4N 129.3E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 15.0N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.8N 126.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 17.3N 129.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 15.4N 130.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 11.4N 129.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 180445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE
TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (129.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 15.0N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 16.5N 125.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 200000UTC 17.6N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 210000UTC 15.6N 130.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE SE 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 220000UTC 11.8N 129.7E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260118014816
2026011800 01W NOKAEN 014 01 065 02 SATL 060
T000 144N 1252E 040 R034 015 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 150N 1257E 040 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 159N 1265E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 165N 1279E 040 R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 168N 1291E 040 R034 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 161N 1312E 035 R034 140 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 124N 1302E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.8N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.1N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 125.3E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 143N1250E 45
0126011800 144N1252E 40

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 180145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (126.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (129.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (132.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 15.0N 124.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 17.3N 125.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 17.6N 128.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 15.6N 130.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 11.8N 129.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 15.0N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 17.3N 125.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 200000UTC 17.6N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 210000UTC 15.6N 130.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE SE 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 220000UTC 11.8N 129.7E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 172245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 172100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (132.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 212100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 15.4N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 17.2N 125.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 191800UTC 17.5N 127.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 201800UTC 16.1N 129.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 211800UTC 13.3N 129.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE S 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 221800UTC 09.5N 127.2E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260117195045
2026011718 01W NOKAEN 013 01 045 03 SATL 060
T000 143N 1250E 045 R034 015 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 148N 1253E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 157N 1260E 040 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 164N 1270E 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 167N 1283E 040 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 164N 1301E 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 146N 1310E 035 R034 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 116N 1308E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.7N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.6N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 125.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011706 139N1249E 50
0126011712 141N1248E 45
0126011718 143N1250E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 124.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 15.2N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 16.9N 124.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 191800UTC 17.5N 127.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 201800UTC 16.1N 129.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 211800UTC 13.3N 129.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE S 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 221800UTC 09.5N 127.2E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 15.2N 124.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 16.9N 124.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 17.5N 127.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.1N 129.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 13.3N 129.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 09.5N 127.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 171645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (128.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (132.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 14.9N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 180300UTC 15.6N 124.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 181500UTC 16.5N 124.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 191200UTC 17.1N 126.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 201200UTC 16.9N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 211200UTC 13.8N 129.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE S 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 221200UTC 10.1N 127.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260117132612
2026011712 01W NOKAEN 012 01 325 11 SATL 060
T000 150N 1241E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 157N 1241E 045 R034 090 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 164N 1246E 040 R034 070 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 172N 1255E 040 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 175N 1265E 040 R034 090 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 172N 1288E 040 R034 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 159N 1300E 040 R034 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 133N 1302E 035
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 124.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 993 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 136N1251E 45
0126011706 141N1248E 50
0126011706 141N1248E 50
0126011712 150N1241E 50
0126011712 150N1241E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 124.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 993 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 171345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (127.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (131.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 14.5N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 14.5N 123.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 15.0N 123.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.9N 124.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 17.1N 126.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 16.9N 129.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 13.8N 129.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 10.1N 127.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 14.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 180000UTC 15.0N 123.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 181200UTC 15.9N 124.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 191200UTC 17.1N 126.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 201200UTC 16.9N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 211200UTC 13.8N 129.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE S 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 221200UTC 10.1N 127.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 171045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN (2601) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (127.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (131.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 14.4N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 172100UTC 15.0N 123.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180900UTC 15.9N 123.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190600UTC 17.4N 124.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 200600UTC 17.7N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 210600UTC 15.3N 129.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE SE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 220600UTC 11.3N 128.2E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260117073010
2026011706 01W NOKAEN 011 01 320 09 SATL 060
T000 141N 1244E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 149N 1240E 050 R050 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 156N 1242E 045 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 163N 1248E 045 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 170N 1260E 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 172N 1280E 040 R034 050 NE QD 015 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 162N 1292E 040 R034 080 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 142N 1297E 035 R034 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 035 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.9N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.0N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.2N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 124.3E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1256E 45
0126011700 134N1250E 45
0126011706 141N1244E 50
0126011706 141N1244E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 14.3N, 123.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOP UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 14.3N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 171800UTC 15.2N 122.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180600UTC 16.1N 123.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 17.4N 124.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 200600UTC 17.7N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 210600UTC 15.3N 129.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE SE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 220600UTC 11.3N 128.2E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 14.3N 123.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.2N 122.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 123.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 17.4N 124.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 17.7N 126.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 15.3N 129.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 11.3N 128.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 14.0N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 171500UTC 14.4N 124.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180300UTC 15.0N 124.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190000UTC 16.1N 125.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 200000UTC 16.8N 127.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 210000UTC 15.6N 128.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 220000UTC 12.3N 127.7E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.2N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 124.8E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260117014859
2026011700 01W NOKAEN 010 01 315 10 SATL 060
T000 135N 1250E 045 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 145N 1243E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 153N 1242E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 162N 1247E 045 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 167N 1256E 045 R034 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 170N 1273E 040 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 160N 1286E 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 142N 1285E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.2N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 124.8E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1257E 45
0126011700 135N1250E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 13.8N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
LOOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 13.8N 125.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 14.3N 124.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 14.8N 124.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 16.1N 125.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 16.8N 127.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 15.6N 128.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 12.3N 127.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 13.8N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 171200UTC 14.3N 124.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180000UTC 14.8N 124.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.1N 125.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 200000UTC 16.8N 127.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 210000UTC 15.6N 128.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 220000UTC 12.3N 127.7E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 13.7N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 14.0N 124.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 172100UTC 14.6N 124.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181800UTC 15.7N 125.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 191800UTC 16.0N 126.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 201800UTC 15.3N 127.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 211800UTC 12.5N 127.7E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260116194626
2026011618 01W NOKAEN 009 01 300 14 SATL 060
T000 128N 1257E 045 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 138N 1247E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 145N 1244E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 153N 1245E 045 R034 130 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 160N 1250E 045 R034 090 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 166N 1268E 040 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 160N 1286E 035 R034 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 025 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 143N 1286E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 125.4E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 118N1279E 40
0126011612 121N1269E 40
0126011618 128N1257E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 13.1N, 126.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 13.1N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 170600UTC 13.7N 125.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171800UTC 14.3N 124.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181800UTC 15.7N 125.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191800UTC 16.0N 126.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 201800UTC 15.3N 127.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 211800UTC 12.5N 127.7E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 13.1N 126.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 13.7N 125.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 14.3N 124.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 15.7N 125.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.0N 126.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 15.3N 127.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 12.5N 127.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 13.4N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 170300UTC 13.4N 125.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171500UTC 14.2N 124.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181200UTC 14.9N 124.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 191200UTC 15.6N 125.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 201200UTC 15.0N 126.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 211200UTC 12.5N 126.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260116133739
2026011612 01W NOKAEN 008 01 290 09 SATL 060
T000 122N 1270E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 130N 1258E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 139N 1252E 045 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 148N 1250E 045 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 154N 1253E 045 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 163N 1270E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 163N 1287E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 152N 1300E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.8N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 126.7E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 119N1279E 40
0126011612 122N1270E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 12.8N, 127.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 12.8N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 170000UTC 13.0N 125.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171200UTC 14.0N 125.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181200UTC 14.9N 124.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191200UTC 15.6N 125.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 201200UTC 15.0N 126.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 211200UTC 12.5N 126.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 996 HPA
AT 12.8N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 13.0N 125.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 14.0N 125.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.9N 124.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.6N 125.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 15.0N 126.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 12.5N 126.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 12.3N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 14.1N 125.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180600UTC 14.5N 124.9E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 190600UTC 14.5N 125.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 200600UTC 14.0N 125.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 210600UTC 11.8N 124.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260116074729
2026011606 01W NOKAEN 007 01 320 11 SATL 060
T000 120N 1280E 035 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 130N 1267E 035 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 139N 1258E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 147N 1253E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 155N 1253E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 164N 1266E 040 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 167N 1287E 035 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 150N 1303E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 13.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 127.7E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1287E 30
0126011606 120N1280E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 13.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 11.8N, 128.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 11.8N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 14.1N 125.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180600UTC 14.5N 124.9E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 190600UTC 14.5N 125.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 200600UTC 14.0N 125.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 210600UTC 11.8N 124.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 11.8N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 14.1N 125.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 14.5N 124.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 14.5N 125.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 14.0N 125.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 11.8N 124.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 11.6N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 13.6N 126.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180000UTC 14.5N 125.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 190000UTC 15.4N 125.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 200000UTC 15.2N 127.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 210000UTC 13.6N 127.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260116011806
2026011600 01W NOKAEN 006 01 355 10 SATL 040
T000 112N 1289E 035 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 122N 1279E 035 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 132N 1269E 035 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 142N 1261E 040 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 149N 1259E 040 R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 158N 1267E 035 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 159N 1279E 030
T120 147N 1293E 025
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.2N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.9N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 128.7E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
0126011600 112N1289E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 11.2N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 11.2N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 13.2N 126.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 14.5N 125.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 190000UTC 15.4N 125.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 200000UTC 15.2N 127.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 210000UTC 13.6N 127.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 11.2N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 13.2N 126.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 14.5N 125.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 15.4N 125.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.2N 127.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 13.6N 127.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 10.3N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 12.8N 126.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 171800UTC 14.1N 124.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 181800UTC 14.9N 125.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 191800UTC 15.4N 126.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 201800UTC 14.0N 127.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 10.3N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IT
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260115193757
2026011518 01W NOKAEN 006 01 045 01 SATL 040
T000 102N 1290E 030
T012 112N 1282E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 121N 1269E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 130N 1261E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 136N 1258E 035 R034 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 149N 1259E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 153N 1278E 030
T120 144N 1287E 025
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.3N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 128.8E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
538 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 101N1289E 30
0126011518 102N1290E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 10.3N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 12.4N 126.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 171800UTC 14.1N 124.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181800UTC 14.9N 125.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 191800UTC 15.4N 126.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 201800UTC 14.0N 127.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 998 HPA
AT 10.3N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 12.4N 126.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 14.1N 124.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 14.9N 125.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.4N 126.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 14.0N 127.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 10.3N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 12.4N 126.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 171200UTC 13.7N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 181200UTC 14.3N 125.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 191200UTC 14.7N 126.4E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 201200UTC 14.5N 127.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260115133452
2026011512 01W NOKAEN 005 01 315 01 SATL 030
T000 100N 1289E 030
T012 106N 1283E 035 R034 110 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 116N 1271E 035 R034 110 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 126N 1260E 035 R034 100 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 134N 1254E 040 R034 100 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 146N 1255E 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 150N 1267E 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 149N 1281E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 128.8E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
539 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 99N1290E 30
0126011512 100N1289E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 10.3N, 128.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IT
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 10.3N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 12.2N 127.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 171200UTC 13.7N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181200UTC 14.3N 125.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 191200UTC 14.7N 126.4E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 201200UTC 14.5N 127.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) 1000 HPA
AT 10.3N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 12.2N 127.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 13.7N 125.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.3N 125.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 14.7N 126.4E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 14.5N 127.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 10.3N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 11.9N 127.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 170600UTC 13.4N 125.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180600UTC 14.4N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 190600UTC 15.0N 126.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 200600UTC 14.8N 126.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260115074444
2026011506 01W NOKAEN 004 01 315 08 SATL 060
T000 100N 1289E 030
T012 106N 1283E 035 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 116N 1273E 035 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 126N 1263E 040 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 134N 1256E 045 R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 147N 1253E 040 R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 152N 1263E 035 R034 100 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 152N 1274E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.2N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 128.8E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
539 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 90N1305E 30
0126011418 92N1300E 30
0126011500 94N1295E 30
0126011506 100N1289E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 9.4N, 129.4E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NOKAEN) STATUS. TS NOKAEN IS LOCATED AT 9.9N, 128.9E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2601 NOKAEN (2601) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 09.9N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 11.7N 127.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 170600UTC 13.4N 125.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180600UTC 14.4N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 190600UTC 15.0N 126.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 200600UTC 14.8N 126.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2601 NOKAEN (2601) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 09.9N 128.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 11.7N 127.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 13.4N 125.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 14.4N 125.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 15.0N 126.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 14.8N 126.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260115012439
2026011500 01W ONE 003 01 250 05 SATL 040
T000 093N 1297E 030
T012 100N 1292E 035 R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 108N 1284E 035 R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 117N 1273E 040 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 126N 1264E 045 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 141N 1259E 045 R034 115 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 151N 1266E 040 R034 130 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 159N 1283E 040 R034 100 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.3N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.7N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.6N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 129.6E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 93N1306E 25
0126011418 95N1302E 25
0126011500 93N1297E 30

Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 142113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 01W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP012026
713 AM ChST Thu Jan 15 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND EXITING THE
REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...9.7N 130.1E

About 335 miles north-northwest of Sonsorol
About 335 miles west-northwest of Kayangel
About 335 miles northwest of Angaur
About 340 miles west-northwest of Koror
About 340 miles northwest of Peleliu
About 545 miles west of Yap
About 1025 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 01W
was located near Latitude 9.7 degrees North and Longitude
130.1 degrees East. 01W is moving west-northwest at 5 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with little
change in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. 01W is forecast to
intensify through tonight, potentially becoming a Tropical Storm as
early as late Thursday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan, Guam on 01W as the system continues to move away
from the region.

$$

Montvila

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260114194858
2026011418 01W ONE 002 01 295 04 SATL 060
T000 095N 1302E 025
T012 102N 1296E 030
T024 109N 1289E 035 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 117N 1279E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 126N 1268E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 142N 1259E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 153N 1263E 035 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 165N 1281E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 9.5N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.7N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 130.1E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 93N1306E 25
0126011418 95N1302E 25
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 141450
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 01W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP012026
1250 AM ChST Thu Jan 15 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W FORMS WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Depression 01W formed 315 miles northwest of Koror.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...9.5N 130.4E

About 310 miles west-northwest of Kayangel
About 310 miles northwest of Angaur
About 315 miles north-northwest of Sonsorol
About 315 miles west-northwest of Koror
About 315 miles northwest of Peleliu
About 490 miles west of Ngulu
About 525 miles west of Yap
About 1010 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...northwest...320 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
01W was located near Latitude 9.5 degrees North and
Longitude 130.4 degrees East. 01W is moving northwest at 9 mph.
It is expected to maintain this general course with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Friday, possibly becoming a
tropical storm Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 01W is forecast to intensify
through Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Doll

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 260114140746
2026011412 01W ONE 001 01 320 08 SATL 060
T000 093N 1306E 025
T012 102N 1298E 030
T024 108N 1290E 035 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 116N 1282E 040 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 124N 1271E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 141N 1258E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 155N 1259E 035 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 170N 1282E 035 R034 090 NE QD 020 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 9.3N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.8N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.1N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 130.4E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
0126011312 73N1330E 15
0126011318 75N1327E 20
0126011400 81N1318E 20
0126011406 87N1311E 20
0126011412 93N1306E 25

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