Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DUDZAI-26
in Mauritius

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Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201223
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 56.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
32.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 200825
WTIO41 FMEE 200614
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 57.8 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SO: 110 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 43.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 57.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SW: 110 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 43.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED
AROUND THE CENTRE, GIVING THE SYSTEM A MORE SYMMETRICAL ASPECT. IT
HAS ADOPTED AN EYE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER CURVATURE,
LEADING TO AN UPWARD REVISION OF THE DVORAK ANALYSIS TO 4.0+. WE CAN
THEREFORE LEAVE THE CI AT 4.0+, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OTHER OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM MSG2 AND METOP
SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS UP TO THE 60KT THRESHOLD. AT 06UTC, DUDZAI
IS STILL CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WIND SPEEDS
ESTIMATED AT 60KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TRACK ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. ON
THIS TRACK, DUDZAI IS CURRENTLY PASSING CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND,
APPROXIMATELY 320 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TURNING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE RETREAT OF THE
RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. ALL MODELS CONFIRM THIS RSMC FORECAST WITH A
DISPERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOW.

REGARDING INTENSITY, VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVOURABLE OVER A
SHORT PERIOD, LEAVING A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER WATERS
THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS SEEMS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS
IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE RETAINING THE
INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD
FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 57.8 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SO: 110 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 43.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST A
NOUVEAU ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE CONFERANT UN ASPECT PLUS SYMETRIQUE
AU SYSTEME. IL ADOPTE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL AVEC UN PEU
PLUS DE COURBURE LAISSANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN T A LA HAUSSE A 4.0+.
ON PEUT DONC LAISSER LE CI A 4.0+ UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES AUTRES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES. LES IMAGES SATELLITES VISIBLES
MSG2 ET METOP PERMETTENT DE NOTER UNE AMELIORATION DANS LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES PLAIDANT POUR UNE LEGERE INTESIFICATION
DES VENTS JUSQU'AU SEUIL DE 60KT. A 06UTC, DUDZAI EST TOUJOURS
CLASSEE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 60KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI
POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
DUDZAI PASSE ACTUELLEMENT AU PLUS PRES DE LA REUNION A ENVIRON 320 KM
AU SUD-EST. EN CE MARDI EN JOURNEE, IL DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE VERS
L'EST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES VALIDE CETTE PREVISION CMRS AVEC UNE
DISPERSION QUI EST A PRESENT FAIBLE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DEVRAIT ETRE ENCORE
FAVORABLE SUR UNE COURTE PERIODE LAISSANT UNE COURTE FENETRE DE
REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES. UNE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL SEMBLE CEPENDANT
DE MOINS EN MOINS PROBABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU
SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT EN
GARDANT UNE INTENSITE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, AVANT DE FUSIONNER
AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.


AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 200629
WTIO41 FMEE 200614
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 57.8 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SO: 110 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 43.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 57.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
26.3 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 06 UTC:
29.8 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260120010942
2026012000 14S DUDZAI 020 01 230 14 SATL 060
T000 229S 0584E 055 R050 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 251S 0570E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 283S 0572E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 331S 0603E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 22.9S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.1S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.3S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.1S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 58.0E.
20JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011818 210S 640E 50
1426011818 210S 640E 50
1426011900 211S 628E 50
1426011900 211S 628E 50
1426011906 211S 617E 50
1426011906 211S 617E 50
1426011912 217S 607E 50
1426011912 217S 607E 50
1426011918 220S 596E 50
1426011918 220S 596E 50
1426012000 229S 584E 55
1426012000 229S 584E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 22.9S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.1S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.3S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.1S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 58.0E. 20JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 465 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 350 SW: 155 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SAME CONFIGURATION AS THE PREVIOUS
BULLETIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH REMAINS WARM,
IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH A CURVATURE
THAT IS SLIGHTLY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE CURVED BAND
CONFIGURATION THEREFORE PRESENTS A SLIGHTLY GREATER CURVATURE,
LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF T UP TO 3.5- OR 3.5. WE CAN THEREFORE
LEAVE THE CI AT 3.5, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OTHER OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES. ASCAT DATA FROM 1809UTC CONFIRMS WINDS OF 50KT
AT THE ANALYSIS TIME. GCOM-W DATA FROM 2054UTC SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, ARGUING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF
WINDS UP TO THE 55KT THRESHOLD, OVERESTIMATING THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
AT 00UTC, DUDZAI IS CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WIND
SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 55KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWEST TRACK ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. ON THIS
TRACK, DUDZAI IS CURRENTLY PASSING CLOSEST TO MAURITIUS AND REUNION
ISLANDS, APPROXIMATELY 300 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. ALL MODELS CONFIRM THIS RSMC
FORECAST WITH A DISPERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOW.

REGARDING INTENSITY, VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVOURABLE OVER A
SHORT PERIOD, LEAVING A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER WATERS
THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS SEEMS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS
IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE RETAINING THE
INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD
FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.


IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.9 S / 58.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SO: 465 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 350 SO: 155 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ON RETROUVE LA MEME CONFIGURATION
QU'AU RESEAU PRECEDENT : L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE, QUI RESTE CHAUDE, SE
CANTONNE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION, AVEC UNE
COURBURE QUI GAGNE LEGEREMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. LA CONFIGURATION
EN BANDE INCURVEE PRESENTE DONC UN PEU PLUS DE COURBURE LAISSANT UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK EN T A LA HAUSSE A 3.5-, VOIRE 3.5. ON PEUT DONC
LAISSER LE CI A 3.5 UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES AUTRES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
ET SUBJECTIVES. LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1809UTC PERMETTENT DE CONFIRMER
DES VENTS DE 50KT EN DEBUT DE RESEAU. LES DONNEES GCOM-W DE 2054UTC
PERMETTENT ELLES DE NOTER UNE AMELIORATION DANS LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES PLAIDANT POUR UNE LEGERE INTESIFICATION DES VENTS
JUSQU'AU SEUIL DE 55KT, SURESTIMANT LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK. A 00UTC,
DUDZAI EST CLASSEE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A
55KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI
POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
DUDZAI PASSE ACTUELLEMENT AU PLUS PRES DES ILES MAURICE ET LA REUNION
A ENVIRON 300 KM AU SUD-EST. EN CE MARDI EN JOURNEE, IL DEVRAIT
AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE
LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES VALIDE CETTE PREVISION
CMRS AVEC UNE DISPERSION QUI EST A PRESENT FAIBLE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DEVRAIT ETRE ENCORE
FAVORABLE SUR UNE COURTE PERIODE LAISSANT UNE COURTE FENETRE DE
REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES. UNE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL SEMBLE CEPENDANT
DE MOINS EN MOINS PROBABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU
SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT EN
GARDANT UNE INTENSITE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, AVANT DE FUSIONNER
AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR REUNION/MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M JUSQU'A MARDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 200004
WTIO40 FMEE 200001
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 465 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 350 SW: 155 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 200004
WTIO41 FMEE 200001
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.9 S / 58.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SO: 465 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 350 SO: 155 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200000
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 59.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE FLUCTUATING
WITH FAIRLY COLD CONVECTIVE PEAKS DURING THE FIRST THREE HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LESS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND WITH LESS CURVATURE. THE CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION
SHOWS LESS CURVATURE, GIVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF T DOWN 3.0, IN LINE
WITH OTHER GUIDANCES, BUT A CI STILL FAIRLY HIGH AT 3.5 DUE TO
INERTIA. NO MICROWAVE DATA AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS RSMC
TO AID LOCATION, EXCEPT FOR METOP-01 AT 1727UTC, BUT INFRARED IMAGES
SHOW THE CLEARING OF THE CENTRE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, AN
ACCELERATED SHIFT OF THE CENTRE OF DUDZAI. THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH AT
1727UTC ALLOWS US TO NOTE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 43KT, OR 49KT
RECALIBRATED. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
VALIDATED BY ASCAT VALUES CLOSE TO 50KT, AND DUDZAI REMAINS AT THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWEST TRACK ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. ON THIS
TRACK, DUDZAI WILL PASS CLOSEST TO MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT, APPROXIMATELY 300 KM SOUTH-EAST OF THEM. ON TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. ALL MODELS VALIDATE THIS
RSMC FORECAST WITH A DISPERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOW.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE FAVOURABLE TO A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SEEMS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE RETAINING THE INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE
MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 59.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SO: 155 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A ETE ASSEZ
FLUCTUANTE AVEC DES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS ASSEZ FROIDS AU COURS DES 3
PREMIERES HEURES SUIVI D'UNE ACTIVITE MOINDRE SE CANTONNANT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION ET AVEC UNE COURBURE MOINDRE. LA
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE PRESENTE MOINS DE COURBURE LAISSANT
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN T A LA BAISSE DE 3.0, EN ACCORD AVEC LES AUTRES
GUIDANCES MAIS UN CI ENCORE ASSEZ HAUT A 3.5 PAR INERTIE. PAS DE
DONNEES MICRO-ONDE AU MOMENT DE L'ECRITURE DE CE CMRS POUR AIDER LA
LOCALISATION A PART LA METOP-01 DE 1727UTC MAIS DES IMAGES
INFRA-ROUGES PERMETTANT DE NOTER AVEC LE DEGAGEMENT DU CENTRE DE LA
CONVECION LA PLUS FORTE, UN DEPLACEMENT ACCELERE DU CENTRE DE DUDZAI.
LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 1727UTC PERMET NOTER DES VENTS MAXIMAUX
DE 43KT SOIT 49KT RECALIBRES. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ANALYSE DVORAK
EST VALIDEE PAR LES VALEURS PROCHES DE 50KT DE L'ASCAT, DUDZAI RESTE
AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI
POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
DUDZAI PASSE AU PLUS PRES DES ILES MAURICE ET LA REUNION EN COURS DE
NUIT A ENVIRON 300 KM AU SUD-EST. MARDI EN JOURNEE, IL DEVRAIT
AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE
LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES VALIDE CETTE PREVISION
CMRS AVEC UNE DISPERSION QUI EST A PRESENT FAIBLE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EN BAISSE AU COURS
DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES DEVRAIT ETRE FAVORABLE A UNE COURTE FENETRE
DE REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES. UNE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL SEMBLE CEPENDANT
DE MOINS EN MOINS PROBABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU
SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT EN
GARDANT UNE INTENSITE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, AVANT DE FUSIONNER
AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR REUNION/MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M JUSQU'A MARDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 191805
WTIO40 FMEE 191801
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 59.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 191805
WTIO41 FMEE 191801
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 59.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SO: 155 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191800
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 59.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.0S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.1S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 43.8S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 60.2E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 995 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260119132705
2026011912 14S DUDZAI 019 01 235 10 SATL 060
T000 217S 0607E 050 R050 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 230S 0586E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 250S 0572E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 281S 0573E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 325S 0597E 055 R050 060 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 020 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 438S 0722E 045 R034 260 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.0S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.1S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 43.8S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 60.2E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 995 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011818 210S 640E 50
1426011818 210S 640E 50
1426011900 211S 628E 50
1426011900 211S 628E 50
1426011906 211S 616E 50
1426011906 211S 616E 50
1426011912 217S 607E 50
1426011912 217S 607E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 191237
WTIO40 FMEE 191215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 350 SW: 130 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 215 SW: 100 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 191237
WTIO41 FMEE 191215
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.7 S / 61.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 85 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 350 SO: 130 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 215 SO: 100 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191207
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
22.9 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
24.8 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 190657
WTIO40 FMEE 190654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 465 SW: 155 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 130 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 44.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 190657
WTIO41 FMEE 190654
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 61.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 155 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 465 SO: 155 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 130 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

72H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 44.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 190635
WTIO40 FMEE 190613
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 465 SW: 155 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 130 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 44.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 190635
WTIO41 FMEE 190613
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 61.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 155 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 465 SO: 155 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 130 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

72H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 44.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190611
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260119013531
2026011900 14S DUDZAI 018 01 265 11 SATL 060
T000 211S 0628E 050 R050 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 217S 0605E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 230S 0585E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 252S 0572E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 284S 0576E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 397S 0652E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 62.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 62.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.2S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.4S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 39.7S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 62.2E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011818 210S 640E 50
1426011818 210S 640E 50
1426011900 211S 628E 50
1426011900 211S 628E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 62.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 62.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.2S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.4S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 39.7S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 62.2E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 62.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 39.7 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 465 SW: 195 NW: 695
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 405
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED WEAK WITHIN
DUDZAI'S CIRCULATION, WITH RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS, APART FROM A
FEW RARE BURSTS OF CONVECTION. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES,
PARTICULARLY THOSE BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA (DMINT AND SOUNDERS),
STILL SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 45KT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AT THIS LEVEL PENDING NEW AND MORE RELIABLE DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. DUDZAI HAS READJUSTED ITS
COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. IT IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. IT
COULD THEN PASS APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON
TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE
MAIN MODELS, AMONG WHICH THERE IS NOW LITTLE SPREAD.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ON DECREASING IN THE
COMING HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE
OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE
LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 62.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SO: 150 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 39.7 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 465 SO: 195 NO: 695
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 285 SO: 120 NO: 405
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
FAIBLE DANS LA CIRCULATION DE DUDZAI AVEC DES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS
RELATIVEMENT CHAUD, A L'EXCEPTION DE QUELQUES RARES BURSTS DE
CONVECTION. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS NOTAMMENT CELLES
BASSES SUR DES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES (DMINT ET SONDEURS) SUGGERENT
ENCORE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE DES 45KT. L'INTENSITE EST DONC
MAINTENUE A CE NIVEAU EN ATTENDANT DE NOUVELLES DONNEES PLUS FIABLES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. DUDZAI A
REDRESSE SA TRAJECTOIRE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL COMMENCE A S'ELOIGNER
DE RODRIGUES. IL POURRAIT PAR LA SUITE PASSER A ENVIRON 300 KM DE
MAURICE ET LA REUNION. MARDI IL DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD
PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. NOTRE
PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES PARMI
LESQUELS LA DISPERSION EST FAIBLE A PRESENT.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE BAISSER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, CE QUI DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE
FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT ENTRE LUNDI SOIR
ET MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE
LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE
FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4M JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE LUNDI.
- FORTES AVERSES POSSIBLES JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR REUNION/MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DURANT LA
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 190030
WTIO41 FMEE 190022
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 62.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SO: 150 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 39.7 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 465 SO: 195 NO: 695
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 285 SO: 120 NO: 405
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 190030
WTIO40 FMEE 190022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 62.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 39.7 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 465 SW: 195 NW: 695
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 405
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190017
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 62.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
21.7 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
23.0 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SW: 195 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEAK WITHIN
DUDZAI'S CIRCULATION, WITH RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS, MAINLY PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTRE REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE
TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES
(1327Z WSFM AND 1709Z GPM) SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
IN THE ABSENCE OF AVAILABLE ASCAT OR SAR DATA, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. DUDZAI HAS READJUSTED ITS
COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY PASSING CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES,
APPROXIMATELY 150 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT COULD THEN PASS
APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE RIDGE. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS,
AMONG WHICH THERE IS NOW LITTLE SPREAD.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE COMING
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD
THEREFORE BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER
WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181848
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SO: 140 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SO: 195 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
FAIBLE DANS LA CIRCULATION DE DUDZAI AVEC DES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS
RELATIVEMENT CHAUD, PRINCIPALEMENT PRESENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
LE CENTRE RESTE TOUJOURS PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE EN LIEN AVEC LE
CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDES
(WSFM DE 1327Z ET GPM DE 1709Z) TEMOIGNENT CEPENDANT D'UNE
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES ENCORE BIEN DEFINIE. EN L'ABSENCE DE
OASSES ASCAT OU SAR DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 45KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. DUDZAI A
REDRESSE SA TRAJECTOIRE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL PASSE ACTUELLEMENT AU
PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES A ENVIRON 150 KM AU SUD-EST. IL POURRAIT PAR
LA SUIT PASSER A ENVIRON 300 KM DE MAURICE ET LA REUNION. MARDI IL
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST
ET DU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS EST UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES PARMI LESQUELS LA DISPERSION
EST FAIBLE A PRESENT.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT COMMENCER A BAISSER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, CE QUI DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE
FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT ENTRE LUNDI SOIR
ET MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE
LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE
FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.
- FORTES AVERSES POSSIBLES JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR REUNION/MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DURANT LA
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 181845
WTIO40 FMEE 181829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SW: 195 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 181845
WTIO41 FMEE 181829
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SO: 140 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SO: 195 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181825
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
21.5 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
22.5 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.5S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.4S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 44.3S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 64.5E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260118132832
2026011812 14S DUDZAI 017 01 225 07 SATL 045
T000 208S 0650E 050 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 215S 0631E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 223S 0608E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 236S 0586E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 256S 0573E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 324S 0592E 050 R050 050 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 443S 0692E 040 R034 230 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 270 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.5S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.4S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 44.3S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 64.5E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011718 185S 669E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011800 194S 664E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011806 203S 655E 60
1426011812 208S 650E 50
1426011812 208S 650E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181258
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 64.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SW: 195 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME, BUT WITH WARMER PEAKS. THE
0915UTC GCOM-W PASS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND
NOTES THE BEGINNING OF AN OPENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AT
THIS TIME, WINDS CAN STILL BE ESTIMATED AT 50KT, BUT THE WEAKENING
CONTEXT SUGGESTS A FALL BELOW THE 48KT THRESHOLD AT 12UTC. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN PT ARGUES FOR 3.5, ALTHOUGH THE PEAKS ARE FAIRLY WARM AND
IN THIS CONTEXT OF WEAKENING LINKED TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, WE CAN OPT FOR 3.5-, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PASSAGE
BELOW THE ESTIMATED 50KT THRESHOLD. CONSEQUENTLY, DUDZAI IS
DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 12UTC WITH A NOTABLE
EXPOSED CENTRE ON VISIBLE IMAGES.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH AN ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT THIS SUNDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW NIGHT, DUDZAI'S TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY REDIRECT WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. DUDZAI COULD PASS BETWEEN
100 AND 200 KM SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. OUR RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, WITH A TENDENCY FOR
DISPERSION TO DECREASE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, ALTHOUGH THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WHICH COULD LEAVE A DIFFERENCE
IN THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE ISLANDS OF ABOUT 6 HOURS. IN
THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ITS MOVEMENT AS IT IS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A SIMILAR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT WITH
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS RELATED TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OR A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF
REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL FAIRLY WARM WATERS. THE SYSTEM COULD
THEREFORE REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE
OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE
DEPRESSION.


IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING. IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, RODRIGUES SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE RADIUS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLY WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181258
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 64.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SO: 195 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 100 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUER DE
S'EFFONDRER. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTEE LA MEME MAIS AVEC
DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES. LA PASSE GCOM-W DE 0915UTC PERMET
UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA LOCALISATION ET NOTE UN DEBUT D'OUVERTURE
DANS LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. A CETTE HEURE, ON PEUT ENCORE
ESTIMER DES VENT DE 50KT MAIS LE CONTETXE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLAIDE
POUR UN PASSAGE SOUS LE SEUIL DES 48KT A 12UTC. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
PT PLAIDE POUR DU 3.5 BIEN QUE LES SOMMETS SONT ASSEZ CHAUDS ET DANS
CE CONTEXTE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ON PEUT OPTER POUR DU 3.5- CE QUI CONFIRME LE
PASSAGE SOUS LE SEUILS DES 50KT ESTIMES. PAR CONSEQUENT, DUDZAI EST
DECLASSE EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE A 12UTC AVEC UN CENTRE EXPOSE
NOTABLE SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE
LA PLUS GRANDE RESTE SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES AVEC UNE ACCELERATION
DU DEPLACEMENT DE SUD-OUEST CE DIMANCHE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SE
RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT SE REDRESSER A
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI POURRAIT PASSER ENTRE 100 ET 200 KM AU
SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES ET A ENVIRON 300 KM DE MAURICE ET LA REUNION.
MARDI IL DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES S'APPROCHANT PAR
L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES AVEC UNE DISPERSION
TENDANT A SE REDUIRE SUR LA DIRECTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT EST PLUS INCERTAINE, POUVANT LAISSER UNE
DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE DE PASSAGE PRES DES ILES DE L'ORDRE DE 06
HEURES. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME ACCELERERA SON
DEPLACEMENT ETANT PRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE SIMILAIRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, MAIS AVEC DE PETITES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE. CELA LAISSERA LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE OU DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE
COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ
CHAUDES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT
ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU
SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE
FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.


IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.
- FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE FORTES AVERSES ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI
MATIN. SELON LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE, RODRIGUES DEVRAIT RESTER
EN DEHORS DU RAYON DE COUP DE VENT.

IMPACTS SUR REUNION/MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE PROBABLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DURANT LA
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 181208
WTIO40 FMEE 181201

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/6/20252026

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 64.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND

SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75

64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):

12H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 165

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 155

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 155

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 205

34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SW: 195 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 140

48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:

NIL

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 181208
WTIO41 FMEE 181201

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/6/20252026

1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 64.9 E

(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)

DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130

34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75

64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):

12H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 155

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 165

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 155

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 45

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 195 NO: 155

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 205

34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110

48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SO: 195 NO: 260

34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 100 NO: 140

48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

NON RENSEIGNE

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181200
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 64.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
21.8 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SW: 155 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 360 SW: 195 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 325
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION FIRST CONTINUED WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, THEN COLLAPSED OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS. THE 0058 WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS VERY POOR CIRCULATION IN
THE LOWER LAYERS COMPARED TO THE ALTITUDE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT LEAVES THE LOCATION OF THE CENTRE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE RCM-2 PASS FROM 0110UTC ALSO VALIDATES
THIS ANALYSIS OF THE POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
METOP-03 FROM 0421UTC ALSO SEEMS TO VALIDATE THIS SHIFT IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTRE. IN THIS SHEARED CONFIGURATION, WHICH IS HEAVILY
AFFECTED BY THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS SEEN TO BE DOWNWARD WITH A CI OF 3.5. THE PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS AT 0421UTC DOES NOT ALLOW THE CENTRE TO BE LOCATED
PRECISELY, BUT A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 47KT AT THE EDGE OF THE SWATH
(RECALIBRABLE TO 55KT) ALLOWS THE 50KT ESTIMATE IN THE DVORAK TO BE
CONFIRMED. DUDZAI THEREFORE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
ACCELERATING IN ITS MOVEMENT ACCORDING TO THE LOCATION AT 06UTC.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS
IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH AN ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT
THIS SUNDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, DUDZAI'S TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY REDIRECT WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. DUDZAI COULD PASS BETWEEN
50 AND 150 KM SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. OUR RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, WITH A TENDENCY FOR
DISPERSION TO DECREASE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, ALTHOUGH THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WHICH COULD LEAVE A DIFFERENCE
IN THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE ISLANDS OF ABOUT 6 HOURS. IN
THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ITS MOVEMENT AS IT IS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS ARE
LIKELY, FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY'S UPS AND DOWNS. WIND SHEAR
SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER QUITE WARM WATERS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THUS BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S
LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A
MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
RODRIGUES SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE RADIUS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180702
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 65.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45

36H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SO: 155 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 360 SO: 195 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 325
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST D'ABORD
MAINTENUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE DEPORTEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST PUIS
S'EST EFFONDREE AU COURS DES DEUX DERNIERES HEURES. LA MICRO-ONDE
WSFM DE 0058 PERMET DE NOTER UNE CIRCULATION TRES LACHE EN BASSES
COUCHES COMPARATIVEMENT A L'ALTITUDE QUI SEMBLE DEPORTEE AU SUD-OUEST
MAIS LAISSE UNE LOCALISATION ASSEZ DELICATE DU CENTRE. LA PASSE RCM-2
DE 0110UTC VALIDE AUSSI CETTE ANALYSE SUR LA CIRCUALTION DE BASSES
COUCHES MAL DEFINIE. LA METOP-03 DE 0421UTC SEMBLE VALIDER AUSSI CE
DECALAGE DE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE TRES IMPACTE PAR L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST VUE A LA BAISSE AVEC UN CI A 3.5.
LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 0421UTC NE PERMET PAS DE LOCALISER
PRECISEMENT LE CENTRE MAIS UNE VALEUR MAXIMALE DE 47KT EN BORD DE
FAUCHEE (RECALIBRABLE EN 55KT) PERMET DE VALIDER LES 50KT DE
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK. DUDZAI RESTE DONC AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE PRESENTANT UNE ACCELERATION DANS SON DEPLACEMENT D'APRES LA
LOCALISATION DE 06UTC.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE
LA PLUS GRANDE EST SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES AVEC UNE ACCELERATION DU
DEPLACEMENT DE SUD-OUEST CE DIMANCHE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SE
RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE
DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT SE
REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI POURRAIT PASSER ENTRE 50
ET 150 KM AU SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES ET A ENVIRON 300 KM DE MAURICE ET
LA REUNION. MARDI IL DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
S'APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST.
NOTRE PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
AVEC UNE DISPERSION TENDANT A SE REDUIRE SUR LA DIRECTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT EST PLUS INCERTAINE,
POUVANT LAISSER UNE DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE DE PASSAGE PRES DES
ILES DE L'ORDRE DE 06 HEURES. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME
ACCELERERA SON DEPLACEMENT ETANT PRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE SIMILAIRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT, MAIS AVEC DE PETITES
FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE
COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ
CHAUDES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT
ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU
SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE
FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.
- FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE COUP DE VENT ET DE FORTES AVERSES ENTRE
DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI MATIN. SELON LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE,
RODRIGUES DEVRAIT RESTER EN DEHORS DU RAYON DE COUP DE VENT.

IMPACTS SUR REUNION/MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DURANT LA
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 180612
WTIO40 FMEE 180606
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SW: 155 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 360 SW: 195 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 325
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 180612
WTIO41 FMEE 180606
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 65.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45

36H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SO: 155 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 360 SO: 195 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 325
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180605
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 65.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
21.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260118013710
2026011800 14S DUDZAI 016 01 215 05 SATL 060
T000 189S 0665E 055 R050 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 200S 0651E 060 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 207S 0633E 060 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 216S 0610E 060 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 230S 0586E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 278S 0573E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 379S 0637E 045 R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 66.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.6S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 37.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 66.1E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011706 176S 679E 70
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011712 180S 674E 60
1426011718 185S 668E 55
1426011718 185S 668E 55
1426011800 189S 665E 55
1426011800 189S 665E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 66.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.6S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 37.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 66.1E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 66.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 185 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND AN INCREASING EXTENSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AREA. ON INFRARED
IMAGERY, DUDZAI'S CENTRE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. HOWEVER, THE 2103Z GCOM-W AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A STILL ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE UNDER THE EFFECT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTHEASTERN SIDE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MET/PT,
YIELDING A T NUMBER OF 4.0-. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ALSO SHOW A
TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 55
KT AT 00UTC, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS PROBABLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE ESTIMATED CENTRE LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES AND OF MOST NWP GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THIS SUNDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI
COULD PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 150 KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES AND
APPROXIMATELY 300 KM AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT
SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE EAST.
OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS ARE
LIKELY, FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY'S UPS AND DOWNS. WIND SHEAR
SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER QUITE WARM WATERS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THUS BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S
LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A
MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
RODRIGUES SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE RADIUS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 66.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 35

36H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 175 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SO: 185 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE TRES
INTENSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE MARQUEE ET UNE AUGMENTATION DE L'EXTENSION DES SOMMETS
FROIDS. SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE, LE CENTRE DE DUDZAI RESTE A
L'INTERIEUR DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE, DANS SA PARTIE NORD. NEANMOINS,
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES GCOM-W AMSR2 DE 2103Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE ENCORE
ASYMETRIQUE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SANS
CONVECTION PROFONDE DU COTE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE EST BASEE SUR LE MET/PT, DONNANT UN NOMBRE T EN HAUSSE A
4.0-. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS MONTRENT AUSSI UNE TENDANCE
A L'INTENSIFICATION. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 55 KT A 00UTC,
AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROBABLEMENT SITUES DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. LA POSITION ESTIMEE DU CENTRE SE SITUE LEGEREMENT PLUS AU
NORD QUE LES PRECEDENTES ESTIMATIONS ET QUE LA PLUPART DES
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-OUEST CE DIMANCHE SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI
DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT SE REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI POURRAIT
PASSER ENTRE 50 ET 150 KM AU SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES ET A ENVIRON 300 KM
DE MAURICE ET LA REUNION. MARDI IL DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES S'APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST ET DU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE VERS
L'EST. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES. BIEN QUE LA DISPERSION TENDE A SE REDUIRE, LA PREVISION
RESTE ENCORE UN PEU INCERTAINE A COURTE ECHEANCE CONCERNANT LA
DISTANCE DE PASSAGE A RODRIGUES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE SIMILAIRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT, MAIS AVEC DE PETITES
FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE
COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ
CHAUDES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT
ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU
SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE
FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.
- FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE COUP DE VENT ET DE FORTES AVERSES ENTRE
DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI MATIN. SELON LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE,
RODRIGUES DEVRAIT RESTER EN DEHORS DU RAYON DE COUP DE VENT.

IMPACTS SUR MAURICE :
- MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DURANT LA
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 180037
WTIO40 FMEE 180027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 66.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 185 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 180037
WTIO41 FMEE 180027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 66.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 35

36H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 175 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SO: 185 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180025
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 66.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
20.0 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
20.9 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 67.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 415 SW: 240 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE ALSO SPREADING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM'S NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. DUDZAI'S CENTRE IS NOW UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, BASED ON THE DT AND THE MET, HAS
THEREFORE BEEN RAISED TO 3.5. A 1324Z SMOS PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO
50 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 1400Z SAR RCM3 PASS CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HAS
ENABLED US TO BETTER LOCATE THE CENTRE, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 18UTC IS LEFT AT 50 KT
BY INERTIA, BUT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BY 00UTC DUE TO
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTRE.

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TOMORROW, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON
THIS TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 150 KM SOUTH-EAST OF
RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300 KM AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION.
ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OUR RSMC FORECAST
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS
DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM
REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME
SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS ARE LIKELY, FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY'S UPS
AND DOWNS. THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER QUITE WARM WATERS. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THUS BE REACHED
AGAIN BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS
IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING WITH
A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, RODRIGUES
SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE RADIUS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS
VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 67.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 415 SO: 240 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 0 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA FORTE CONVECTION PRESENTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD S'EST INTENSIFIEE TOUT EN S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE CENTRE DE DUDZAI EST MAINTENANT
SOUS LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE, BASEE SUR LE
DT ET SUR LE MET, EST DONC REMONTEE A 3.5. UNE PASSE SMOS A 1324Z A
MESURE DES VENTS JUSQU'A 50 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. UNE PASSE
SAR RCM3 A 1400Z CONFIRME LA PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET A PERMIS DE LOCALISER LE CENTRE UN PEU PLUS AU
NORD QUE LES PRECEDENTES ESTIMATIONS. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 18UTC EST
MAINTENUE A 50 KT PAR INERTIE, MAIS UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION EST
PROBABLE D'ICI 00UTC EN LIEN AVEC LA POUSSEE CONVECTIVE ACTUELLE PRES
DU CENTRE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT
TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. DEMAIN, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI POURRAIT PASSER ENTRE 50 ET 150 KM AU SUD-EST DE
RODRIGUES ET A ENVIRON 300 KM DE MAURICE ET LA REUNION. MARDI IL
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES S'APPROCHANT PAR
L'OUEST. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES. BIEN QUE LA DISPERSION TEND A SE REDUIRE, LA PREVISION RESTE
ENCORE UN PEU INCERTAINE A COURTE ECHEANCE CONCERNANT LA DISTANCE DE
PASSAGE A RODRIGUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE
INTENSITE SIMILAIRE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H EN LIEN AVEC LE
CISAILLEMENT, MAIS AVEC DE PETITES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET
MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE
REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ CHAUDES. LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL POURRAIT A NOUVEAU ETRE ATTEINT ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET
MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT
FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.
FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE COUP DE VENT ET DE FORTES AVERSES ENTRE
DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI MATIN. SELON LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE,
RODRIGUES DEVRAIT RESTER EN DEHORS DU RAYON DE COUP DE VENT.

IMPACTS SUR MAURICE :
MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DURANT LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 171839
WTIO41 FMEE 171826
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 67.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 415 SO: 240 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 0 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 171839
WTIO40 FMEE 171826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 67.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 415 SW: 240 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171825
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 67.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
20.6 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.1S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.2S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.9S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.8S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.0S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.6S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 43.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 67.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260117134014
2026011712 14S DUDZAI 015 01 225 07 SATL 060
T000 180S 0674E 055 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 095 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 130 SE QD 165 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 191S 0662E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 202S 0647E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 209S 0627E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 218S 0602E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 250S 0565E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 316S 0583E 045 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 436S 0679E 035 R034 240 NE QD 130 SE QD 200 SW QD 230 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.1S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.2S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.9S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.8S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.0S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.6S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 43.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 67.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011618 171S 695E 100
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011700 173S 687E 80
1426011706 175S 679E 70
1426011706 175S 679E 70
1426011706 175S 679E 70
1426011712 180S 674E 55
1426011712 180S 674E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171325
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 33.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI KEPT A CLOUD PATTERN MARKED BY VERY
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DECREASED DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. ON THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGES, THE SURFACE CENTRE IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR EXPOSED ON THE CDO
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE. GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE PATTERN, THE
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50KT, BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA TO
CONFIRM THIS, THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TOMORROW,
DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS
TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 150KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES
AND APPROXIMATELY 300KM AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY,
IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS
OF THE MAIN MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING THE
DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
INTENSITY WITH THE PERSISTANCE OF THE SHEAR. THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN
TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A
SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL-WARM WATERS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED AGAIN. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
POSSIBLE GALE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY MORNING.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES RANGING 4 TO 6M UP TO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS
VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171325
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 33.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SO: 205 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A CONSERVE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE MARQUEE PAR UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES FORTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN LIEN AVEC LE FORT CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.
L'ACTIVITE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD A BAISSE EN LIEN AVEC DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES, LE CENTRE DE
SURFACE COMMENCE A APPARAITRE EXPOSE EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DU CDO. AU
VU DE LA DEGRADATION DE LA CONFIGURATION, L'INTENSITE A ETE ABAISSEE
A 50KT MAIS EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES FIABLES POUR LA CONFIRMER CELA
RESTE INCERTAIN.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT
TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. DEMAIN, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI POURRAIT PASSER ENTRE 50 ET 150KM AU SUD-EST DE
RODRIGUES ET A ENVIRON 300KM DE MAURICE ET LA REUNION. MARDI IL
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. BIEN QUE LA DISPERSION TEND
A SE REDUIRE, LA PREVISION RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE NOTAMMENT A COURTE
ECHEANCE SUR LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE A RODRIGUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE
INTENSITE SIMILAIRE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC LA PERSISTANCE DU
CISAILLEMENT. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER
LUNDI ET MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE
REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL POURRAIT A NOUVEAU ETRE ATTEINT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN
S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
COUP DE VENT ET FORTES AVERSES POSSIBLES ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI
MATIN.
MER TRES FORTE PROBABLE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN

IMPACTS SUR MAURICE :
MER TRES FORTE POSSIBLE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHE DES 4M DURANT LA NUIT
DE LUNDI A MARDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 171248
WTIO40 FMEE 171225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 33.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 171249
WTIO41 FMEE 171225
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 33.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SO: 205 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171220
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
19.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170748
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 370 SW: 150 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 305

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI KEPT A CLOUD PATTERN MARKED BY VERY
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS WERE
ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
PASS (WSFM 0118Z AND GMI 0629Z) SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION. THE 06Z INTENSITY WAS SET AT 55KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE 0102Z SAR RCM2 DATA AND THE PARTIAL 0415Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH
SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60KT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD HEAD MORE DIRECTLY
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TOMORROW, DUDZAI'S TRACK
SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS
BETWEEN 50 AND 150KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300KM
AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN
MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
WEAKENING IN THE UPCOMING HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THIS SHEAR SHOULD
THEN TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL-WARM WATERS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED AGAIN. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
POSSIBLE GALE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY MORNING.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES RANGING 4 TO 6M UP TO MONDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170748
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

72H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 185 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 370 SO: 150 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 305

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A CONSERVE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE MARQUEE PAR UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES FORTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN LIEN AVEC LE FORT CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.
CEPENDANT DES BANDES CONVECTIVES ONT REUSSI A S'ENROULER DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDES (WSFM 0118Z ET
GMI 0629Z) MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE A PERDU EN ORGANISATION.
L'INTENSITE A 06Z A ETE FIXEE A 55KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES SAR
RCM2 DE 0102Z ET LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 0415Z QUI SUGGERAIENT
DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ENTRE 50 ET 60KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. IL DEVRAIT SE DIRIGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SE
RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. DEMAIN, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI POURRAIT PASSER ENTRE 50 ET 150KM AU SUD-EST DE
RODRIGUES ET A ENVIRON 300KM DE MAURICE ET LA REUNION. MARDI IL
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. BIEN QUE LA DISPERSION TEND
A SE REDUIRE, LA PREVISION RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE A COURTE ECHEANCE
SUR LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE A RODRIGUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN LIEN AVEC LE
CISAILLEMENT. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER
LUNDI ET MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE
REINTENSIFICATION SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL POURRAIT A NOUVEAU ETRE ATTEINT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN
S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID ET UNE DEPRESSION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
COUP DE VENT ET FORTES AVERSES POSSIBLES ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI
MATIN.
MER TRES FORTE PROBABLE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 170701
WTIO40 FMEE 170627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 370 SW: 150 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 305

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 170701
WTIO41 FMEE 170627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

72H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 185 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 22/01/2026 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 370 SO: 150 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 305

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170625
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
19.7 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260117013917
2026011700 14S DUDZAI 014 01 255 07 SATL 060
T000 174S 0689E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 182S 0677E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 191S 0664E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 200S 0651E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 205S 0632E 060 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 229S 0585E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 275S 0559E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 362S 0611E 050 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.2S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.1S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.5S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.9S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.5S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 36.2S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 68.6E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011612 169S 705E 110
1426011618 172S 696E 100
1426011618 172S 696E 100
1426011618 172S 696E 100
1426011700 174S 689E 90
1426011700 174S 689E 90
1426011700 174S 689E 90
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.2S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.1S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.5S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.9S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.5S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 36.2S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 68.6E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 150 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CONVECTION, BUT SIGNS OF WEAKENING ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE
APPARENT. ITS POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DISAPPEARED AND ITS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS COLD. SIMILARLY, THE 2034Z GCOM MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH WAS USED TO LOCATE THE CENTRE, SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF DUDZAI, WHICH WAS UNTIL THEN AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO A SHEARED PATTERN DUE TO NORTHWESTERN DEEP
WIND-SHEAR. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ESTIMATES A T NUMBER OF 4.0 AND A CI
OF 4.5, CORRESPONDING TO AN AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 65KT. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT, AIDT, DPRINT, SATCON, ETC.)
WHICH ESTIMATE A WIND INTENSITY BETWEEN 60 AND 75KT. THE FINAL
INTENSITY SELECTED IS 65KT AND DUDZAI REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE FOR THIS ANALYSIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD
SHIFT CLEARLY SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY,
REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE MODELS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONVERGE, WHICH INCREASES THE TRUST OF THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
GALE WINDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 68.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

60H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SO: 150 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES LE SYSTEME TROPICAL DUDZAI A MAINTENU
SA CONVECTION MAIS LES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE FONT DE PLUS EN
PLUS RESSENTIR. SON CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE A DISPARU ET SES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX SONT MOINS FROIDS. DE MEME L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GCOM DE
2034Z, QUI A PERMIS DE REPERER LE CENTRE, MONTRE QUE LA CONVECTION
EST DEPORTEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DE DUDZAI, QUI ETAIT JUSQU'ALORS UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE, TRANSITE PEU A PEU VER UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE EN RAISON
D'UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
PERMET D'ESTIMER UN NOMBRE T DE 4.0 ET UN CI DE 4.5- CORRESPONDANT A
UNE VALEUR DE VENT MOYEN MAX DE 65KT. CELA EST PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD
AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (ADT, AIDT, DPRINT, SATCON...) QUI
ESTIMENT UNE INTENSITE DE VENT ENTRE 55 ET 70KT. L'INTENSITE FINALE
SELECTIONNE EST DE 65KT ET DUDZAI RESTE ENCORE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL POUR CE RESEAU.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. IL DEVRAIT SE DIRIGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SE
RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'CI LUNDI EN RESTANT SUR LA FACE NORD D'UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI DEVRAIT
AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS RESTE PROCHE
DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN ET EUROPEEN AINSI QUE SUR LES
MODELES D'ENSEMBLE IA. LA PLUPART DES MEMBRES DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES CONVERGENT, CE QUI PERMET D'AUGMENTER LA CONFIANCE DE LA
PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST QUI RESTE ELEVE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI,
CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL AVANT D'ETRE ABSORBE PAR LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES :
COUP DE VENT PROBABLE DIMANCHE SOIR ET NUIT SUIVANTE.
MER TRES FORTE PROBABLE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4M ENTRE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI
ET LUNDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 170005
WTIO40 FMEE 170004
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 150 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 0 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 170005
WTIO41 FMEE 170004
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 68.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

60H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 22/01/2026 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SO: 150 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SO: 0 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170000
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
19.2 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 161948
WTIO40 FMEE 161947
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 161948
WTIO41 FMEE 161947
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

48H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161922 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED A
CLOUDY EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTION AND
FREQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS CENTRE WAS TRACKED
USING SAR IMAGES FROM 1352Z, ASCAT-B AND C FROM 1653Z AND 1732Z. THE
LAST TWO SWATH ALSO MEASURED WINDS OF 70KT. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT AND THEN THE MET/PT GIVES A FINAL T NUMBER
OF 4.0 AND A CI OF 5.0-. AS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AGAIN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT, WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE LATEST ASCAT MEASUREMENTS. IT IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED
AT 75 KT AT 18UTC.

AFTER FOLLOWING A WESTERLY DIRRECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, THE LAST TWO
ASCAT INDICATE THAT IT BEGAN TO CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
DIRECTION IS STEERED BY A RIDGE RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID
TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONVERGE, WHICH
INCREASES THE RELIABILITY OF THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161922 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

48H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES LE SYSTEME TROPICAL DUDZAI A GARDE
UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION TRES INTENSE ET UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE FREQUENTE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. CE DERNIER A PU ETRE SUIVI GRACE AUX IMAGES SAR
DE 1352Z, ASCAT-B ET C DE 1653Z ET 1732Z. CES DEUX DERNIERES PASSES
MESURENT PAR AILLEURS DES VENTS DE 70KT. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE
DVORAK BASEE SUR LE DT PUIS SUR LE MET/PT DONNE UN NOMBRE T FINAL A
4.0 ET UN CI DE 5.0-. LA CONVECTION AYANT REPRIS DE L'AMPLEUR EN CE
DEBUT DE NUIT ON PREFERE GARDER UNE INTENSITE LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE
AUX DERNIERES MESURES ASCAT. ELLE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 75 KT A 18UTC.

APRES AVOIR SUIVI UNE DIRECTION VERS OUEST DURANT QUELQUES HEURES,
LES DEUX DERNIERES ASCAT INDIQUENT QU'IL A COMMENCE A INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CETTE DIRECTION EST PILOTEE PAR UNE
DORSALE SE RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT SE
REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'CI LUNDI EN RESTANT SUR LA FACE NORD
D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS
RESTE PROCHE DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN ET EUROPEEN AINSI QUE
SUR LES MODELES D'ENSEMBLE IA. LA PLUPART DES MEMBRES DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES CONVERGENT, CE QUI PERMET D'AUGMENTER LA CONFIANCE DE LA
PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST QUI RESTE ELEVE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI,
CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL AVANT D'ETRE ABSORBE PAR LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES : MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4M ENTRE
DIMANCHE APRES MIDI ET LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED A
CLOUDY EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTION AND
FREQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS CENTRE WAS TRACKED
USING SAR IMAGES FROM 1352Z AND ASCAT-B AND C FROM 1653Z AND 1732Z.
THE LAST TWO SWATH ALSO MEASURED WINDS OF 70KT. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT AND THEN THE MET/PT GIVES A FINAL T NUMBER
OF 4.0 AND A CI OF 5.0-. AS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AGAIN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT, WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE LATEST ASCAT MEASUREMENTS. IT IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED
AT 75 KT AT 18UTC.

AFTER FOLLOWING A WESTERLY DIRRECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, THE LAST TWO
ASCAT INDICATE THAT IT BEGAN TO CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
DIRECTION IS STEERED BY A RIDGE RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID
TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONVERGE, WHICH
INCREASES THE RELIABILITY OF THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

48H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES LE SYSTEME TROPICAL DUDZAI A GARDE
UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION TRES INTENSE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE FREQUENTE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. CE DERNIER A PU ETRE SUIVI GRACE AUX IMAGES SAR
DE 1352Z ET ASCAT-B ET C DE 1653Z ET 1732Z. CES DEUX DERNIERES PASSES
MESURENT PAR AILLEURS DES VENTS DE 70KT. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE
DVORAK BASEE SUR LE DT PUIS SUR LE MET/PT DONNE UN NOMBRE T FINAL A
4.0 ET UN CI DE 5.0-. LA CONVECTION AYANT REPRIS DE L'AMPLEUR EN CE
DEBUT DE NUIT ON PREFERE GARDER UNE INTENSITE LEGEREMENT SUPERIRURE
AUX DERNIERES MESURES ASCAT. ELLE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 75 KT A 18UTC.

APRES AVOIR SUIVI UNE DIRECTION VERS OUEST DURANT QUELQUES HEURES,
LES DEUX DERNIERES ASCAT INDIQUENT QU'IL A COMMENCE A INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CETTE DIRECTION EST PILOTEE PAR UNE
DORSALE SE RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT SE
REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'CI LUNDI EN RESTANT SUR LA FACE NORD
D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS
RESTE PROCHE DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN ET EUROPEEN AINSI QUE
SUR LES MODELES D'ENSEMBLE IA. LA PLUPART DES MEMBRES DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES CONVERGENT, CE QUI PERMET D'AUGMENTER LA CONFIANCE DE LA
PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST QUI RESTE ELEVE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI,
CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL AVANT D'ETRE ABSORBE PAR LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES : MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4M ENTRE
DIMANCHE APRES MIDI ET LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 161827
WTIO40 FMEE 161826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 161827
WTIO41 FMEE 161826
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

48H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 21/01/2026 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
17.9 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
18.8 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260116142210
2026011612 14S DUDZAI 013 01 255 09 SATL 030
T000 170S 0704E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 175S 0690E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 183S 0678E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 193S 0666E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 203S 0651E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 217S 0608E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 249S 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 319S 0568E 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.3S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.3S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.9S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 70.0E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011518 169S 727E 115
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011606 168S 713E 120
1426011612 170S 704E 110
1426011612 170S 704E 110
1426011612 170S 704E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.3S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.3S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.9S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 70.0E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 70.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 380 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN IN
INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL. THIS DETERIORATION IS
PROBABLY LINKED TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS
ALSO VISIBLE BY REDUCED CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE 0928Z GCOM-W AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VERY INTENSE INNER
CORE BUT WHICH IS PARTIALLY OPEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE UNDER THE EFFECT
OF THIS WIND SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT AND
THEN ON THE MET/PT YIELDS A FINAL T NUMBER OF 4.5+. IN THE ABSENCE OF
NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT AT 12UTC.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
FROM TONIGHT IN CONNECTION WITH A RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD
SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 70.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 380 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE MAIS LA CONVECTION EST
RESTEE TRES INTENSE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE FREQUENTE DANS LE
MUR DE L'OEIL. CETTE DEGRADATION EST PROBABLEMENT LIEE A UNE HAUSSE
DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST, EGALEMENT VISIBLE PAR UN
EPANCHEMENT DE CIRRUS CONTRARIE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GCOM-W AMSR2 DE 0928Z MONTRE UN COEUR INTERNE TRES
INTENSE MAIS PARTIELLEMENT OUVERT DU COTE NORD SOUS L'EFFET DE CE
CISAILLEMENT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE BASEE SUR LE DT PUIS SUR LE
MET/PT DONNE UN NOMBRE T FINAL A 4.5+. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES
DONNEES OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 90 KT A 12UTC.

CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE PROCHAINE EN LIEN AVEC UNE DORSALE SE
RENFORCANT TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'CI LUNDI EN RESTANT SUR LA FACE NORD D'UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI DEVRAIT
AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE SOUR L'INFLUENCE
D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS RESTE PROCHE
DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN ET EUROPEEN AINSI QUE SUR LES
MODELES D'ENSEMBLE IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST QUI RESTE ELEVE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE TEMPORAIREMENT DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI,
CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN S'ELOIGNANT AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL AVANT D'ETRE ABSORBE PAR LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES : MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4M ENTRE
DIMANCHE APRES MIDI ET LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 161233
WTIO40 FMEE 161216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 70.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 380 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 161233
WTIO41 FMEE 161216
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 70.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 21/01/2026 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 380 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 70.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160753
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE FEATURE HAS SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED WITH
CLOUD TOPS GETTING WARMER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EYE ANALYSES RANGE BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0 AND SUGGEST
THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING PHASE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DPRINT ANALYSES AVAILABLE. THE
ASCAT-B PASS AT 04.22Z ALLOWS US TO POSITION THE CENTRE OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE THE SAR RADARSAT2 AT 00.42Z ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 100KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS PROBABLY SLIGHTLY
OVERESTIMATED IN THE LAST TWO ANALYSIS TIMES AND WILL BE ADJUSTED
LATER.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD IN CONNECTION
WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGINS A
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT IN CONNECTION WITH A SECOND
RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY,
REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. DUDZAI
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH-EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC
FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS BASED ON AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, THE DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES
SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160753
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 71.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 415 SO: 370 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 90 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES
DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES EN OEIL
DVORAK OSCILLENT ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.0 ET SUGGERE L'AMORCE D'UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. ON RETROUVE EGALEMENT CETTE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS LES TOUTES DERNIERES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
DPRINT DISPONIBLES. LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 04.22Z PERMET DE POSITIONNER
LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME ALORS QUE LA SAR RADARSAT2 DE 00.42Z NOUS PERMET
D'ESTIMER LES VENTS MAXIMAUX A 100KT. LA PRESSION CENTRALE ETAIT
PROBABLEMENT SURESTIMEE AU COURS DES DEUX DERNIERS RESEAUX ET SERA
AJUSTEE ULTERIEUREMENT.

CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI POURSUIT SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
ET AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE
PROCHAINE EN LIEN AVEC UNE SECONDE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT
TEMPORAIREMENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUDZAI DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
D'CI LUNDI EN RESTANT SUR LA FACE NORD D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DUDZAI DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE SOUR L'INFLUENCE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS RESTE UN CONSENSUS BASE SUR LES
MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN ET EUROPEEN AINSI QUE SUR LES MODELES
D'ENSEMBLE IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
D'ICI CET APRES-MIDI EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST. LE CISAILLEMENT EST PREVU D'AUGMENTER JUSQUE SAMEDI
PUIS DIMINUER LUNDI ET MARDI CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE COURTE
FENETRE DE REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LA DIMINUTION DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES DEVRAIT DEFINITEVEMENT AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS SUR RODRIGUES : MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4M ENTRE
DIMANCHE APRES MIDI ET LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 160633
WTIO40 FMEE 160620
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 160633
WTIO41 FMEE 160620
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 71.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 415 SO: 370 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 90 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 21/01/2026 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 130

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160619
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER AND
EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 225 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260116013603
2026011600 14S DUDZAI 012 01 280 06 SATL 010
T000 168S 0721E 125 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 169S 0708E 130 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 173S 0695E 120 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 181S 0684E 100 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 190S 0672E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 212S 0639E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 237S 0594E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 277S 0566E 065 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.9S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.1S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.7S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 71.8E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z AND 170300Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 120
1426011518 169S 727E 120
1426011518 169S 727E 120
1426011600 168S 721E 125
1426011600 168S 721E 125
1426011600 168S 721E 125
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.9S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.1S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.7S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 71.8E. 16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 160029
WTIO41 FMEE 160009
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 72.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65

48H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75

72H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

120H: 21/01/2026 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 70

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 160028
WTIO40 FMEE 160009
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 72.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

120H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 70

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 72.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER AND
EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
17.1 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.7S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.0S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 72.4E.15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260115191633
2026011518 14S DUDZAI 011 01 285 09 SATL 015
T000 169S 0727E 120 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 168S 0713E 115 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 170S 0700E 105 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 177S 0687E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 188S 0676E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 210S 0646E 060 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 230S 0605E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 264S 0567E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.7S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.0S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 72.4E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011506 171S 744E 95
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011512 171S 736E 110
1426011518 169S 727E 120
1426011518 169S 727E 120
1426011518 169S 727E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 151848
WTIO40 FMEE 151844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 72.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 40

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 151848
WTIO41 FMEE 151844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 72.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 325 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 55

48H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 35

72H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 35

120H: 20/01/2026 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 40

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151843 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 72.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER AND
EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
17.1 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 151837
WTIO40 FMEE 151811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 72.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 40

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 72.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER AND
EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
17.1 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151328
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 73.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED AND HAS
EVEN BECOME BETTER DEFINED INDICATING A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NOTABLY AN EFFECTIVE POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EYE ANALYSES SUGGEST A
DT OF 5.5, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUCH AS THE
DPRINT, EQUIVALENT TO A MAXIMUM SPEED OF 90KT. DUDZAI IS THEREFORE
BACK AGAIN TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE
FROM GCOM-W AT 0844UTC SHOWS A SOLID EYE WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING WEAK NORTHWEST
SHEAR.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS PATH WESTWARD OR EVEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN CONNECTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. AT THIS STAGE, THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL IFS IS ISOLATED FROM ITS ENSEMBLE AND THE REST OF
THE MODELS WITH A SCENARIO MOVING MORE WESTWARD, WHILE THE AMERICAN
GFS IS ISOLATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS THE AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, DUDZAI WILL CONTINUE HEADING
SOUTHWEST, WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES, WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF FORECASTS AGREEING ON THIS POINT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
TOMORROW, WITH WESTERN SECTOR SHEARING THAT WILL STABILISE THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM COULD CAUSE IT TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ON SUNDAY, A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE, WHICH SHOULD MODERATE THE DECREASE IN
INTENSITY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO
RE-INTENSIFY WILL BE LOWER GIVEN THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS. THE
DISPERSION OF INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR THE SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THIS
TRACK IS NOW LOW, BUT A MINORITY TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST
COULD EXTEND THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151328
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 73.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 55

60H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

72H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

120H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE ET S'EST MEME CLARIFIEE, SIGNE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION NETTE
S'EXPLIQUANT PAR DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NOTAMMENT UN
CANAL D'EVACUATION EFFICACE COTE POLAIRE. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIVES EN OEIL DVORAK SUGGERENT UN DT A 5.5 COHERENTES AVEC LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES EN VIGUEUR COMME LE DPRINT, EQUIVALENT A UNE
VITESSE MAXIMALE DE 90KT. DUDZAI REVIENT DONC AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. L'IMAGE AMSR2 DE LA GCOM-W A 0844UTC MONTRE UN OEIL
SOLIDE AVEC UNE CONVECTION PLUS MARQUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME
DENOTANT D'UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST.

CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI POURSUIT SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST
VOIRE OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. EN FIN DE SEMAINE,
EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE UN PEU PLUS PRONONCEE DANS CETTE DORSALE
ET SON GONFLEMENT PAR L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST. A CE STADE, LE MODELE DETERMINISTE
EUROPEEN IFS S'ISOLE DE SON ENSEMBLE ET DU RESTE DES MODELES AVEC UN
SCENARIO PARTANT PLUS VERS L'OUEST TANDIS QUE L'AMERICAIN GFS S'ISOLE
VERS LE SUD. NOTRE PREVISION CMRS S'APPUIE SUR LES MOYENNES
D'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN ET EUROPEEN AINSI QUE SUR LES MODELES D'ENSEMBLE
IA. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DUDZAI GARDE LE CAP AU SUD-OUEST,
A BONNE DISTANCE AU SUD-EST DES MASCAREIGNES, LA GRANDE MAJORITE DES
PREVISIONS S'ACCORDANT SUR CE POINT.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON INTENSIFICATION JUSQUE
DEMAIN VENDREDI AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI STABILISERA
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME AVANT D'AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN JOURNEE.
LE CISAILLEMENT EST PREVU D'AUGMENTER JUSQUE SAMEDI ET LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LE FAIRE REAGIR RAPIDEMENT A CET
ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE AVEC UNE BAISSE D'INTENSITE RAPIDE. EN JOURNEE
DE DIMANCHE, UNE LENTE AMELIORATION EST POSSIBLE, CE QUI DEVRAIT
AMORTIR LA CHUTE D'INTENSITE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POURRAIENT S'AMELIORER AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES MAIS LE POTENTIEL DE RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME SERA
MOINDRE COMPTE TENU DE EAUX MOINS CHAUDES. LA DISPERSION DES
PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME RELATIVEMENT A CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
EST DESORMAIS FAIBLE MAIS UNE TRAJECTOIRE MINORITAIRE PLUS AU NORDA
OUEST OU SUDA EST POURRAIT PROLONGER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 151223
WTIO40 FMEE 151204
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 73.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 40

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 151223
WTIO41 FMEE 151204
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 73.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 55

60H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

72H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

120H: 20/01/2026 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 40

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260115075747
2026011506 14S DUDZAI 010 01 270 06 SATL 030
T000 171S 0743E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 169S 0729E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 168S 0715E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 171S 0702E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 178S 0690E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 197S 0665E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 214S 0630E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 244S 0584E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.4S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.4S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 73.9E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011418 172S 758E 75
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011500 171S 749E 85
1426011506 171S 743E 95
1426011506 171S 743E 95
1426011506 171S 743E 95
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.4S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.4S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 73.9E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 74.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ / CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED, EVEN
THOUGH THE INFRARED IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS FREQUENTLY HIDDEN BY
CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE UNDOUBTEDLY BIASED BY THIS ASPECT,
BUT WE HAVE NONETHELESS DECIDED TO REDUCE THE MAXIMUM SPEED AT 00UTC
TO 75KT. BASED ON THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE EYE DVORAK ANALYSES, THE DT
OSCILLATES BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.5, EQUIVALENT TO A MAXIMUM SPEED BETWEEN
75 KT AND 90 KT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, WE HAVE
OPTED FOR THE LOWER RANGE OF THESE VALUES. THE ONLY MICROWAVE IMAGE
RECENTLY PRESENTED IS A WSFM IMAGE TAKEN AT 0017UTC, REVEALING A
SOLID EYE WITH STILL ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTION. WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT
DUDZAI IS IN A PHASE OF CLEAR REINTENSIFICATION, TEMPORARILY
COUNTERACTED BY DIURNAL EVOLUTION, BUT STILL REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75KT.

SLIGHT CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY
MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-WEST. OVER THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, THE RSMC FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WITH AN EARLIER TURN
TO THE SOUTH-WEST FROM FRIDAY EVENING AND MORE DECISIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DISPERSION IS LOWER THAN IN
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIMES, LEADING TO GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
RODRIGUES ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS BACK IN A MORE FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. THE PRESENCE OF THE
WESTERN UPPER JET JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM GUARANTEES AN EFFICIENT
POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR TODAY. IT WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN. FROM FRIDAY, THE WEST-NORTHWEST
SHEAR, MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND THEN STRONG ON SATURDAY, IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM COULD CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING ON FRIDAY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, WITH THE SYSTEM AT THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO
RODRIGUES. DEEP SHEAR COULD DECREASE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, DELAYING
THE DOWNGRADE OF DUDZAI TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 74.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

120H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ / CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE MEME SI L'IMAGE INFRA-ROUGE MONTRE QU'IL S'OCCULTE
FREQUEMMENT SOUS LA CONVECTION. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT SANS
DOUTE BIAISEES PAR CET ASPECT MAIS NOUS ONT TOUT DE MEME CONDUIT A
DESCENDRE LA VITESSE MAXIMALE A 00UTC A 75KT. AU VU DES DERNIERES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES EN OEIL DVORAK, LE DT OSCILLE ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.5,
EQUIVALENT A UNE VITESSE MAXIMALE ENTRE 75 KT ET 90KT. EN PRENANT EN
COMPTE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES, ON OPTE POUR LA FOURCHETTE BASSE DE
CES VALEURS. LA SEULE IMAGE MICRO-ONDE PRESENTE RECEMMENT EST UNE
IMAGE WSFM QUI EST PASSEE A 0017UTC REVELANT UN SOLIDE OEIL AVEC UNE
CONVECTION ENCORE ASYMETRIQUE. ON PEUT ESTIMER QUE DUDZAI EST EN
PHASE DE REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE, CONTRARIEE TEMPORAIREMENT PAR
L'EVOLUTION DIURNE, MAIS RESTE ENCORE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 75KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. CE SCENARIO
EST RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES AVEC TOUTEFOIS
ENCORE UN PEU DE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE UN PEU PLUS PRONONCEE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET SON GONFLEMENT A L'EST, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS UN PEU PLUS
SUD-OUEST. SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE, LA PREVISION CMRS OPTE POUR UN
SCENARIO UN PEU PLUS NORD QUE LE COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES AVEC UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PLUS PRECOCE,
DES VENDREDI SOIR, ET PLUS FRANC QUE PRECEDEMMENT. ON NOTERA QUE LA
DISPERSION EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS,
INDUISANT UNE MEILLEURE CONFIANCE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. DANS
CE SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE RODRIGUES A
ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE PLUS IMPORTANT EN LIEN AVEC SON DEPLACEMENT. LA PRESENCE DU
JET D'ALTITUDE D'OUEST JUSTE AU SUD DU SYSTEME GARANTIT UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION EFFICACE COTE POLAIRE POUR AUJOURD'HUI. IL CONTINUERA
DONC A S'INTENSIFIER AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES POUVANT
ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, D'ABORD MOYEN VENDREDI
PUIS PROFOND SAMEDI DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE
FAIRE REAGIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT A CET ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE SAMEDI EN
CONSEQUENCE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE MAIS
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF VENDREDI PUIS PLUS MARQUE SAMEDI ET
DIMANCHE RESTE LE SIGNAL LE PLUS PROBABLE AVEC UN SYSTEME AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE MOINS LORS DE SON TRANSIT AU PLUS PRES
DE RODRIGUES. LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND POURRAIT DIMINUER A PARTIR DE
LUNDI RETARDANT LA RETROGRADATION DE DUDZAI EN TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE.


AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 150630
WTIO40 FMEE 150617
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 74.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 40

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 150630
WTIO41 FMEE 150617
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 74.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

120H: 20/01/2026 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 40

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY
EVOLVED INTO AN EYE CONFIGURATION. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THE EYE
HAS CLEARED A LITTLE MORE BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME HIGH-ALTITUDE
CLOUDS, MEANING THAT THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT NECESSARILY OVER
THE HOT SPOT. THE LATEST GCOM-W MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2032UTC CONFIRMS
THIS SHIFT BETWEEN THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE ALTITUDE, ALTHOUGH IT IS
FADING. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS PROPOSED AT 5.0 IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
OTHER SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCES BUT CLEARLY SHOWS DUDZAI'S REACTIVITY DUE
TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND THE DESIRE OF THE CORE TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW
MOMENTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, IT CAN BE ESTIMATED THAT DUDZAI IS
IN A PHASE OF SIGNIFICANT, EVEN RAPID REINTENSIFICATION, BUT REMAINS
AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY
MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC FORECAST
OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, THEN WITH A LONGER-TERM FORECAST THAT DROPS
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIMES, LEADING TO
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS RETURNING TO A MORE FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY REACHING THE STAGE OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD CAUSE
IT TO RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT
CONTINUOUS AND DEFINITIVE WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150049
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 74.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

60H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

72H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 0

120H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE A PROGRESSIVEMENT EVOLUE EN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL. SUR LES
DERNIERS INSTANTS, L'OEIL SE DEGAGE UN PEU PLUS MAIS PRESENT ENCORE
DES INTRUSIONS DE NUAGES D'ALTITUDE, NE PLACANT PAS FORCEMENT LE
CENTRE DU SYSTEME SUR LE POINT CHAUD. LA DERNIERE DONNEE MICRO-ONDE
GCOM-W DE 2032UTC VALIDE CE DECALAGE ENTRE LES BASSES COUCHES ET
L'ALTITUDE BIEN QU'ELLE S'ESTOMPE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PROPOSEE A 5.0
EST UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES AUTRES GUIDANCES SUBJECTIVES MAIS PRESENTE
BIEN LA REACTIVITE DE DUDZAI DU FAIT DE SA PETITE TAILLE ET LA
VELLEITE DU COEUR A SE DEGAGER DANS LES PROCHAINS INSTANTS. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, ON PEUT ESTIMER QUE DUDZAI EST EN PHASE DE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE VOIRE RAPIDE MAIS RESTE ENCORE AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 80KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. CE SCENARIO
EST RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES AVEC TOUTEFOIS
ENCORE UN PEU DE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE UN PEU PLUS PRONONCEE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET SON GONFLEMENT A L'EST, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS UN PEU PLUS
SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION CMRS OPTE POUR UN SCENARIO UN PEU PLUS NORD
QUE LE COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES PUIS AVEC
UNE PREVISION A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE QUI PLONGE UN PEU PLUS VERS LE
SUD-OUEST QUE PRECEDEMMENT. ON NOTERA QUE LA DISPERSION EST EN BAISSE
PAR RAPPORT AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE MEILLEURE CONFIANCE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. DANS CE SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE RODRIGUES A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE ET UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE PLUS IMPORTANT EN LIEN AVEC SON DEPLACEMENT. IL CONTINUERA
DONC A S'INTENSIFIER AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES POUVANT
ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF. LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE FAIRE REAGIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT
A CET ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE SAMEDI. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE MAIS L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONTINUE
ET DEFINITIF RESTE LE SIGNAL LE PLUS PROBABLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI
AVEC UN SYSTEME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE MOINS LORS
DE SON TRANSIT AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES.


AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 150011
WTIO40 FMEE 150008
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 150011
WTIO41 FMEE 150008
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 74.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

60H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

72H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 0

120H: 20/01/2026 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260114192445
2026011418 14S DUDZAI 009 01 270 05 SATL 040
T000 172S 0762E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 171S 0750E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 170S 0737E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 170S 0723E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 173S 0706E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 186S 0681E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 201S 0658E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 216S 0622E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.1S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.0S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.0S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.1S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.6S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.9E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011412 172S 767E 65
1426011418 172S 762E 70
1426011418 172S 762E 70
1426011418 172S 762E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141909 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRE OF THE STORM
HAS REMAINED THE SAME, WITH THE CENTRE MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS
THE CENTRE, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SENTINEL1A AT 1323UTC AND METOP-3
AT 1636UTC. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING.
IN THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CDO OF 4.5 CAN BE MADE,
ALLOWING DUDZAI TO RETURN TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH AVERAGE
WINDS OF 65KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUDZAI TO
REINTENSIFY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING IN THE LATEST DATA,
VALIDATED BY THE LATEST RCM3 DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE
EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC
FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDICATING
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A MORE
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT
PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141909 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UN CENTRE SE PLACANT UN PEU PLUS AU
CENTRE, D'APRES LES INDICES LAISSES PAR LES DONNEES DE LA SENTINEL1A
DE 1323UTC ET DE LA METOP-3 DE 1636UTC. AU COURS DES DERNIERS
INSTANTS, UN OEIL SEMBLE REFAIRE SON APPARITION. DANS CE CONTEXTE,
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO DE 4.5- PEUT ETRE FAITE PERMETTANT A DUDZAI
DE PASSER DE NOUVEAU LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS
MOYENS DE 65KT. CETTE ANAYLSE EST UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES AUTRES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES, MAIS MONTRE LE POTENTIEL DE
REINTENSIFICATION DE DUDZAI QUI SEMBLE REAPPARAITRE SUR LES DERNIERS
INSTANTS, VALIDE PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES DE LA RCM3.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. CE SCENARIO
EST RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES AVEC TOUTEFOIS
ENCORE UN PEU DE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST ET SON GONFLEMENT A L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION CMRS OPTE POUR UN SCENARIO UN
PEU PLUS NORD QUE LE COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES. ON NOTERA QUE LA DISPERSION EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT
AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. DANS CE SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE RODRIGUES A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE ET
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE PLUS IMPORTANT EN LIEN AVEC SON DEPLACEMENT.
IL DEVRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES
HEURES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE FAIRE
REAGIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT A CET ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE. EN CONSEQUENCE,
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE MAIS
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONTINUE RESTE LE SIGNAL LE PLUS PROBABLE A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI AVEC UN SYSTEME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE
MOINS LORS DE SON TRANSIT AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES.


AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141903 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRE OF THE STORM
HAS REMAINED THE SAME, WITH THE CENTRE MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS
THE CENTRE, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM RCM3 AT 1323UTC AND METOP-3 AT
1636UTC. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING. IN
THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CDO OF 4.5 CAN BE MADE,
ALLOWING DUDZAI TO RETURN TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH AVERAGE
WINDS OF 65KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUDZAI TO
REINTENSIFY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING IN THE LATEST DATA,
VALIDATED BY THE LATEST RCM3 DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE
EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC
FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDICATING
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A MORE
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT
PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141903 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UN CENTRE SE PLACANT UN PEU PLUS AU
CENTRE, D'APRES LES INDICES LAISSES PAR LES DONNEES DE LA RCM3 DE
1323UTC ET DE LA METOP-3 DE 1636UTC. AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS,
UN OEIL SEMBLE REFAIRE SON APPARITION. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE ANALYSE
DVORAK EN CDO DE 4.5- PEUT ETRE FAITE PERMETTANT A DUDZAI DE PASSER
DE NOUVEAU LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS DE
65KT. CETTE ANAYLSE EST UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES AUTRES ESTIMATIONS
SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES, MAIS MONTRE LE POTENTIEL DE
REINTENSIFICATION DE DUDZAI QUI SEMBLE REAPPARAITRE SUR LES DERNIERS
INSTANTS, VALIDE PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES DE LA RCM3.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. CE SCENARIO
EST RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES AVEC TOUTEFOIS
ENCORE UN PEU DE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST ET SON GONFLEMENT A L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION CMRS OPTE POUR UN SCENARIO UN
PEU PLUS NORD QUE LE COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES. ON NOTERA QUE LA DISPERSION EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT
AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. DANS CE SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE RODRIGUES A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE ET
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE PLUS IMPORTANT EN LIEN AVEC SON DEPLACEMENT.
IL DEVRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES
HEURES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE FAIRE
REAGIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT A CET ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE. EN CONSEQUENCE,
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE MAIS
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONTINUE RESTE LE SIGNAL LE PLUS PROBABLE A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI AVEC UN SYSTEME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE
MOINS LORS DE SON TRANSIT AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES.


AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141852
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS
REMAINED THE SAME, WITH THE CENTRE MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE
CENTRE, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM KUSCAT AT 1538UTC AND METOP-3 AT
1636UTC. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING. IN
THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CDO PATTERN OF 4.5 CAN BE
PERFORMED, ALLOWING DUDZAI TO RETURN TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH
AVERAGE WINDS OF 65KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE OTHER
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DUDZAI TO REINTENSIFY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING IN THE LATEST
DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE
EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC
FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDICATING
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A MORE
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT
PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.


NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141852
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UN CENTRE SE PLACANT UN PEU PLUS AU
CENTRE, D'APRES LES INDICES LAISSES PAR LES DONNEES KUSCAT DE 1538UTC
ET METOP-3 DE 1636UTC. AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS, UN OEIL SEMBLE
REFAIRE SON APPARITION. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO
DE 4.5- PEUT ETRE FAITE PERMETTANT A DUDZAI DE PASSER DE NOUVEAU LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS DE 65KT. CETTE
ANAYLSE EST UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES AUTRES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES, MAIS MONTRE LE POTENTIEL DE REINTENSIFICATION DE DUDZAI
QUI SEMBLE REAPPARAITRE SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE : DUDZAI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. CE SCENARIO
EST RELATIVEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES AVEC TOUTEFOIS
ENCORE UN PEU DE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST ET SON GONFLEMENT A L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION CMRS OPTE POUR UN SCENARIO UN
PEU PLUS NORD QUE LE COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES. ON NOTERA QUE LA DISPERSION EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT
AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. DANS CE SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE RODRIGUES A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE ET
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE PLUS IMPORTANT EN LIEN AVEC SON DEPLACEMENT.
IL DEVRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES
HEURES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE FAIRE
REAGIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT A CET ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE. EN CONSEQUENCE,
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE MAIS
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONTINUE RESTE LE SIGNAL LE PLUS PROBABLE A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI AVEC UN SYSTEME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE
MOINS LORS DE SON TRANSIT AU PLUS PRES DE RODRIGUES.


AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 141809
WTIO40 FMEE 141804
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 141809
WTIO41 FMEE 141804
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141803
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 14/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
17.3 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 141219
WTIO40 FMEE 141205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 76.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 141219
WTIO41 FMEE 141205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 76.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 0

72H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141204
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 14/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 76.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
17.3 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260114073814
2026011406 14S DUDZAI 008 01 270 04 SATL 045
T000 172S 0771E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 172S 0759E 065 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 172S 0745E 070 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 171S 0730E 075 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 171S 0714E 080 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 180S 0685E 065 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 194S 0658E 055 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 210S 0626E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.2S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.0S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 76.8E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 663
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011318 172S 776E 75
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011400 172S 775E 70
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
1426011406 172S 771E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.2S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.0S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 76.8E.
14JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 663
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 140621
WTIO41 FMEE 140607
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 77.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

120H: 19/01/2026 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 140621
WTIO40 FMEE 140607
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 77.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140604
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 14/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 77.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
17.4 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI REGAINED A POORLY DEFINED EYE PATTERN
ON INFRARED IMAGERY WITH STILL RELATIVELY WARM TOPS. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN CLOSE TO 4.5. THE 1953Z GCOM-W CONFIRMS THE
PREVIOUS GPM WITH A LARGER EYE IN 89GHZ. IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65KT, PENDING NEW, MORE
RELIABLE ESTIMATES.

REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY, DUDZAI HAS BEGUN ITS GRADUAL ACCELERATION
WESTWARD IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS SWELLING
TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. SPREAD
AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS DECREASED BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT LONGER
RANGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRAJECTORY FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES, NOTABLY AI.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN FURTHER AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT HOURS DUE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. THEN
DUDZAI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY REGAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
INTENSIFY AGAIN. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS STRENGTH WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 77.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A REPRIS UNE CONFIGURAITON EN
OEIL MAL DEFINI SUR LES IMAGERIES INFRAROUGES AVEC DES SOMMETS ENCORE
RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES RESTES PROCHES
DE 4.5. LA GCOM-W DE 1953Z CONFIRME LA GPM PRECEDENTE AVEC UNE OEIL
PLUS LARGE EN 89GHZ. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 65KT, EN ATTENDANT DE NOUVELLES
ESTIMATIONS PLUS FIABLES.

CONCERNANT LA TRAJECTOIRE, DUDZAI A AMORCE SON ACCELERATION
PROGRESSIVE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. EN FIN DE SEMAINE,
EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST
ET SON GLONGLEMENT A L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE
SUD-OUEST. LA DISPERSION PARMI LES MODELES NUMERIQUES A DIMINUE MAIS
ELLE RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE EN FIN DE D'ECHEANCE. DANS CE CONTEXTE
INCERTAIN, NOTRE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT UN CONSENSUS ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES ET LES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE NOTAMMENT
IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES EN RAISON DU CISAILLEMENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
POUR LA SUITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT RETROUVER UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE ET SE REINTENSIFIER. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMNT PROGRESSIF. TOUTEFOIS, SON
AMPLEUR DEPENDRA NOTAMMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 140026
WTIO40 FMEE 140017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 140026
WTIO41 FMEE 140017
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 77.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100

120H: 19/01/2026 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 85

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140012
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 14/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
17.4 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.5E.
13JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260113194027
2026011318 14S DUDZAI 007 01 300 02 SATL 050
T000 172S 0776E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 172S 0771E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0760E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 172S 0748E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 171S 0734E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 177S 0702E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 195S 0668E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 215S 0636E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.5E.
13JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011300 172S 781E 110
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011306 173S 780E 100
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011312 173S 778E 90
1426011318 172S 776E 80
1426011318 172S 776E 80
1426011318 172S 776E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
SLIGHTLY, WITH A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDO.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN AROUND 4.5. 1331Z WSFM AND 1732Z
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED IN 89GHZ. THE
1328Z SAR PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 70KT, WHILE THE LATEST
ASCAT PASSES (NOTABLY 1653Z) SEEM TO CORROBORATE AN INTENSITY CLOSE
TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN LESS. THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 65KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONTEXT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND NORTH-WEST. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
GRADUALLY STEER THE TRAJECTORY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM
WESTWARDS. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT TURN SOUTH-WESTWARDS DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTICS
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ESPECIALLY AI ONES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO COOLING THE
UNDERLYING WATERS. THEN DUDZAI SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY REGAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND REACH AGAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS STRENGTH WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131855
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 77.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

120H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
ENCORE LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE, AVEC UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
LIEES DU CDO. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES RESTENT AUTOUR DE 4.5.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES WSFM DE 1331Z ET GMI DE 1732Z MONTRENT QUE
L'OEIL S'EST AGRANDI EN 89GHZ. LA PASSE SAR DE 1328Z SUGGERE UNE
INTENSITE PROCHE DE 70KT TANDIS QUE LES DERNIERES PASSES ASCAT
(NOTAMMENT 1653Z) SEMBLENT CORROBER UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DU STADE
MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE MOINS. L'INTENSITE EST DONC
ABAISSEE A 65KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LE CONTEXTE GLOBAL POUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE EN RAISON DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE DORSALES DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ET AU NORD-OUEST. LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT ORIENTER
PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA
CHRONOLOGIE DE L'ARRIVEE DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE L'ACCELERATION
DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION S'ACCROIT ENCORE DAVANTAGE EN
FIN DE SEMAINE, AVEC UN VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
DANS CE CONTEXTE INCERTAIN, NOTRE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES ET LES MOYENNES
D'ENSEMBLE NOTAMMENT IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AU COURS
DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES EN RAISON DU CISAILLEMENT EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT QUI CONTRIBUE A REFROIDIR LES
EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. POUR LA SUITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT
RETROUVER UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE ET SE REINTENSIFIER AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST NORD OUEST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMNT PROGRESSIF. TOUTEFOIS, SON AMPLEUR DEPENDRA NOTAMMENT
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE INCERTAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 131838
WTIO41 FMEE 131821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 77.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

120H: 18/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 131838
WTIO40 FMEE 131821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131820
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 13/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 06 UTC:
17.3 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI EYE FEATURE HAS DETERIORATED INTO AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN. THE GCOM MICROWAVE SWAT AT 08.57Z ALLOWS US
TO POSITION THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO SUGGESTS AN INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
WEAKENING. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSES ARE DOWNWARD WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80/85 KT. WITH REGARD TO THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE
ANALYSIS IN A CONFIGURATION WITH THE EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN GIVES A
T OF 4.5, OR A CI OF 5.0 BY INERTIA. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
80 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE. DUDZAI IS
THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONTEXT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS
WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND
NORTH-WEST. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GRADUALLY STEER THE TRAJECTORY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
WEST. THE DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST IN
CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS WELL AS A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN THIS
UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MAIN MODELS AND AI ENSEMBLE MEANS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO COOLING THE UNDERLYING WATERS.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
REINTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT RESUMES MOVEMENT, ALLOWING IT
TO REGAIN SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. AS FOR SHEAR, ITS IMPACT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TRAJECTORY, WHICH IS MORE OR
LESS FAR NORTH OF THE ALTITUDE JET STREAM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
TRACK AND THE SYSTEM'S RESISTANCE TO SHEAR.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131300
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 77.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DUDZAI
S'EST DEGRADEE ET A EVOLUEE EN CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE. LA PASSE MICROONDES GCOM DE 08.57Z NOUS PERMET DE POSITIONNER
LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET SUGGERE EGALEMENT UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
DANS LE DEMI CERCLE NORD QUI POURRAIT CONTRIBUER A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE SONT A LA BAISSE
AVEC DES VENTS MAX ESTIMES A 80/85 KT. EN CE QUI CONCERNE L'ANALYSE
DVORAK, L'ANALYSE EN CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE DONNE
UN T DE 4.5 SOIT UN CI DE 5.0 PAR INERTIE. LES VENTS MAX SONT ESTIMES
A 80KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. DUDZAI EST
AINSI RETROGRADE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LE CONTEXTE GLOBAL POUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE EN RAISON DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE DORSALES DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ET AU NORD-OUEST. LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT ORIENTER
PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA
CHRONOLOGIE DE L'ARRIVEE DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE L'ACCELERATION
DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION S'ACCROIT ENCORE DAVANTAGE EN
FIN DE SEMAINE, AVEC UN VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
AINSI QU'UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. DANS CE
CONTEXTE INCERTAIN, NOTRE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES ET LES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE D'IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AU COURS
DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES EN RAISON DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT QUI
CONTRIBUE A REFROIDIR LES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE REINTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT JUSQU'AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN LIEN AVEC LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME LUI PERMETTANT DE RETROUVER UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT.
EN CE QUI CONCERNE LE CISAILLEMENT, SON IMPACT RESTE INCERTAIN CAR
DEPENDANT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OU MOINS ELOIGNEE AU NORD DU
COURANT-JET D'ALTITUDE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST
TRES INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DE LA
RESISTANCE DU SYSTEME AU CISAILLEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 131204
WTIO40 FMEE 131202
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 131204
WTIO41 FMEE 131202
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 77.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 18/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131201
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 13/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 956 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 77.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 78.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DUDZAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED
STABLE WITH WARMER PEAKS AND AN EYE SHOWING TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS,
CLEARING UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS
GIVES A STATIONARY T OF 5.0 WITH AN INERTIA CI THAT CAN BE DEFINED AS
5.5. THIS VALUE COULD BE REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SAR RCM-2, ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME, STILL GIVES WINDS OF 100KT. THE ASCAT AT THE EDGE OF
THE 0423UTC SWATH REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE WINDS DUE TO ITS TOO LOW RESOLUTION. IN THIS
CONTEXT OF WEAKENING AND FOLLOWING OTHER SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, WE CAN
REMAIN AT A CI OF 5.5 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 90KT, LEAVING THE
SYSTEM STILL AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT THESE
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. THE LATEST
FIXES DO NOT YET INDICATE A CLEAR CHANGE IN DIRECTION, DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION AND THE SLOW SPEED OF MOVEMENT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONTEXT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, IN CONTRADICTORY
DIRECTIONAL FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST APPEARS TO BE
BEGINNING, WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY STEER THE
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND
THEREFORE ITS TURN. THE DISPERSION INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AT THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS
WELL AS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN
THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS AND AI ENSEMBLE MEANS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO
ITS SLOW MOVEMENT, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO COOLING THE UNDERLYING
WATERS. DUDZAI IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ITS FASTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW IT
TO REGAIN SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. AS FOR THE SHEAR, A SLIGHT
DECREASE REMAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK MORE OR LESS NORTH OF THE ALTITUDE JET STREAM.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK AND ON HOW WELL THE SYSTEM RESISTS WIND
SHEAR.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 78.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DUDZAI
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES ET UN OEIL
PRESENTANT DES FLUCTUATIONS DE TEMPERATURE, SE DEGAGEANT UN PEU PLUS
SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL DONNE UN T
STATIONNAIRE A 5.0 AVEC PAR INERTIE UN CI QUI PEUT ETRE DEFINI A 5.5.
CETTE VALEUR POURRAIT ETRE REVU UN PEU A LA BAISSE DU FAIT DE LA
PETITESSE DU SYSTEME. LA SAR RCM-2 ARRIVEE JUSTE APRES LE RESEAU
PRECEDENT DONNE ENCORE DES VENTS A 100KT, L'ASCAT EN BORD DE FAUCHEE
DE 0423UTC RESTE DIFFICILE A PRENDRE EN COMPTE POUR ESTIMER PLUS
PRECISEMENT LES VENTS DU FAIT DE SA RESOLUTION TROP LACHE. DANS CE
CONTEXTE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET EN SUIVANT LES AUTRES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIVES, ON PEUT RESTER SUR UN CI DE 5.5 AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX
DE L'ORDRE DE 90KT, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME ENCORE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, MAIS CES VALEURS RISQUENT DE BAISSER DANS LES
PROCHAINS INSTANTS. LES DERNIERS FIX NE PERMETTENT PAS ENCORE DE
NOTER UN VIRAGE FRANC, DU FAIT DE L'INCERTITUDE DE POSITION ET DE LA
LENTEUR DU DEPLACEMENT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LE CONTEXTE GLOBAL POUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME RESTE TRES LENT VERS LE SUD,
DANS DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE DORSALES
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ET AU NORD-OUEST. UN DEBUT DE VIRAGE
SEMBLE S'AMORCER VERS LE SUD-OUEST TOUT EN GARDANT UN DEPLACEMENT
TRES LENT JUSQU'A MARDI SOIR. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT
ORIENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION
RESTE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA CHRONOLOGIE DE
L'ARRIVEE DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE SON VIRAGE. LA DISPERSION
S'ACCROIT ENCORE DAVANTAGE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, AVEC UN VIRAGE PLUS OU
MOINS IMPORTANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, AINSI QU'UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT. DANS CE CONTEXTE INCERTAIN, NOTRE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES ET LES
MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE D'IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, L'INCERTITUDE RESTE IMPORTANTE. BIEN QUE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE POUR LES 24 A 36
PROCHAINES HEURES EN LIEN AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME QUI
CONTRIBUE A REFROIDIR LES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. DUDZAI DEVRAIT AINSI
ETRE RETROGRADE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.
NEANMOINS, SON MOUVEMENT PLUS RAPIDE VERS L'OUEST DEVRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE RETROUVER UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISAN. EN CE QUI
CONCERNE LE CISAILLEMENT, ET UNE LEGERE BAISSE RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE
JEUDI ET VENDREDI, DEPENDANT DE SA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OU MOINS ELOIGNEE
AU NORD DU COURANT-JET D'ALTITUDE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE ET DE LA RESISTANCE DU SYSTEME AU CISAILLEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 130610
WTIO40 FMEE 130608
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 78.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 130611
WTIO41 FMEE 130608
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 78.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2026 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130607
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 13/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 956 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 78.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 18 UTC:
17.5 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI'S EYE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED, WITH
THE EYE BECOMING MORE RAGGED, COLDER, AND MORE ELONGATED. DVORAK
ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT DOWN TO 5.0+. CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL REMAINS
VERY INTENSE WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, POSSIBLY FAVORED BY SOME
DRY AIR STARTING TO DISRUPT THE INNER CORE, DUE TO INCREASING
MID-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM 1817Z AND F18 2255Z), SHOWING A WEAKNESS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. DUDZAI'S INTENSITY IS
DOWNGRADED TO 100KT AT 00UTC, IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AND CLOSE TO THE OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES (1-MIN WINDS
BETWEEN 105 AND 120KT).

THE SYSTEM'S MOTION IS NOW VERY SLOW AND HAS TURNED SOUTHWARDS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST. ITS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN
VERY SLOW UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. LATER ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE ABOUT THE
WESTWARD TURN. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH A MORE OR LESS FRANK SOUTH-WESTWARD TURN AND ALSO A HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ALONG-TRACK MOVEMENT. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT,
OUR TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS AND
AI ENSEMBLE MEANS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND ALSO TO
INCREASING UPWELLING FEEDBACK DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. DUDZAI SHOULD THEREFORE BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE BY THIS EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
SHEAR COULD MORE OR LESS CAP THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ITS
FASTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD INCREASE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AND
WIND SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER JET STREAM IT
WILL TRACK. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE TRACK AND ON HOW WELL THE
SYSTEM RESISTS WIND SHEAR.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 78.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DUDZAI
S'EST DEGRADEE AVEC UN OEIL DEVENANT MOINS NET, PLUS FROID ET PLUS
ALLONGE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL DONNE UN DT EN BAISSE A 5.0+. LA
CONVECTION DANS LE MUR DE L'OEIL RESTE TRES INTENSE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE DETECTEE, POSSIBLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC
ASSOCIEES A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A SUD-OUEST EST SUGGERE PAR LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 1817Z ET F18 DE 2255Z, MONTRANT UN COEUR CONVECTIF
AFFAIBLI SUR SON COTE OUEST. L'INTENSITE DE DUDZAI EST ABAISSEE A
100KT A 00UTC, EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ET PROCHE
DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (VENTS 1-MIN ENTRE 105 ET 120KT).

LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME EST ACTUELLEMENT TRES LENT ET S'ORIENTE VERS
LE SUD, DANS DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
DORSALES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ET AU NORD-OUEST. SON
DEPLACEMENT RESTERA TRES LENT JUSQU'A MARDI SOIR. PAR LA SUITE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT ORIENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA
CHRONOLOGIE DE L'ARRIVEE DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE SON VIRAGE. LA
DISPERSION S'ACCROIT ENCORE DAVANTAGE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, AVEC UN
VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, AINSI QU'UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. DANS CE CONTEXTE
INCERTAIN, NOTRE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES ET LES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE D'IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE
POURSUIVRE POUR LES 24 A 36 PROCHAINES HEURES EN LIEN AVEC UNE HAUSSE
DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET AUSSI EN RAISON DU LENT
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME QUI CONTRIBUE A REFROIDIR LES EAUX
SOUS-JACENTES. DUDZAI DEVRAIT AINSI ETRE RETROGRADE AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI CE MARDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UN
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A
LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. NEANMOINS, SON MOUVEMENT PLUS RAPIDE
VERS L'OUEST DEVRAIT FAIRE DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ET UNE LEGERE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE
JEUDI ET VENDREDI, DEPENDANT DE SA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OU MOINS ELOIGNEE
AU NORD DU COURANT-JET D'ALTITUDE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE ET DE LA RESISTANCE DU SYSTEME AU CISAILLEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 130030
WTIO40 FMEE 130020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 60

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 130031
WTIO41 FMEE 130020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 78.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2026 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 60

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 13/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260112201746
2026011218 14S DUDZAI 005 02 155 02 SATL 020
T000 170S 0780E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 173S 0779E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 174S 0775E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 174S 0769E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 173S 0759E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 173S 0734E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 181S 0704E 090 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 200S 0677E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.3S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.3S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.1S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 78.0E.
12JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011212 168S 779E 125
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
1426011218 170S 780E 115
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.3S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.3S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.1S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 78.0E.
12JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS KEPT A FAIRLY ROBUST EYE PATTERN
WITH STILL VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS BUT A GRADUALLY COOLING EYE
TEMPERATURE. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS, YIELDING A DT DOWN TO 6.0. THE MET/PT IS ALSO AT 6.0, WHILE
THE CI IS LEFT AT 6.5 BY INERTIA. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (F17
1236Z, F16 1419Z) SHOW A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE CORE THAT REMAINS
UNHARMED FOR THE MOMENT, WITH NO OBVIOUS IMMINENT SIGNS OF ONSET OF
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. A 1320Z SAR RCM-3 PASS CONFIRMS THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 12UTC WITH 1-MIN WINDS OF 115 TO 125KT,
CONSISTENT WITH 10-MIN WINDS OF 105/110KT. IT CONFIRMS THE VERY SMALL
EYE DIAMETER WITH AN RMW OF 6 NM. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
SATCON/ADT/DMINT ARE BETWEEN 115 AND 125KT (1-MIN WINDS). THESE
VARIOUS INPUTS ALLOW US TO MAKE DUDZAI'S INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 110KT
AT 18UTC.

THE SYSTEM'S MOTION IS NOW VERY SLOW AND HAS TURNED SOUTHWARDS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST. ITS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN
VERY SLOW UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. LATER ON, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE ABOUT THE
WESTWARD TURN. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER AFTER WEDNESDAY : SOME
MODELS, SUCH AS IFS, FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT, WHILE
OTHERS, SUCH AS HWRF AND HAFS, FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THIS UNCERTAIN
CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN
MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE AI ENSEMBLE AVERAGES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI HAS BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 27C,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). HOWEVER, IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S SLOW MOVEMENT COULD LEAD TO COOLING
OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS. IN ADDITION, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUDZAI
SHOULD THEREFORE BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARDS. FROM WEDNESDAY, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR
COULD MORE OR LESS CAP THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ITS FASTER
WESTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD INCREASE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AND WIND SHEAR
COULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER JET STREAM IT WILL TRACK.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THIS
SMALL SYSTEM AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 77.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 938 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0 CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DUDZAI
EST RESTEE BIEN FORMEE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTANT TRES FROIDS
MAIS AVEC UNE TEMPERATURE DE L'OEIL QUI S'EST UN PEU REFROIDIE. EN
CONSEQUENCE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL DONNE UN DT EN LEGERE BAISSE A
6.0. LE MET/PT EST AUSSI A 6.0, AVEC UN CI RESTANT A 6.5 PAR INERTIE.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (F17 1236Z, F16 1419Z) MONTRENT UN
COEUR CONVECTIF TRES COMPACT ET QUI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT INTACT, SANS
SIGNES IMMINENTS D'UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE MUR DE
L'OEIL. UNE PASSE SAR RCM-3 A 1320Z CONFIRME L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A
12UTC AVEC DES VENTS 1-MIN DE L'ORDRE DE 115 A 125KT, COHERENTE AVEC
DES VENTS 10-MIN DE 105/110KT. ELLE CONFIRME LE TRES PETIT DIAMETRE
DE L'OEIL AVEC UN RVM DE 6 MN. LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES
SATCON/ADT/DMINT SE SITUENT ENTRE 115 ET 125KT (VENTS 1-MIN). CES
DIFFERENTES DONNEES PERMETTENT DE FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DE
DUDZAI A 110KT A 18UTC.

LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME EST ACTUELLEMENT TRES LENT ET S'ORIENTE VERS
LE SUD, DANS DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
DORSALES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ET AU NORD-OUEST. SON
DEPLACEMENT RESTERA TRES LENT JUSQU'A MARDI SOIR. PAR LA SUITE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT ORIENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA
CHRONOLOGIE DE L'ARRIVEE DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE SON VIRAGE. LA
DISPERSION S'ACCROIT ENCORE APRES MERCREDI : CERTAINS MODELES
PREVOYANT UN DEPLACEMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST COMME IFS ET D'AUTRES
OUEST-NORD-OUEST COMME HWRF ET HAFS AVANT DE PLONGER VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EN FIN DE SEMAINE. DANS CE CONTEXTE INCERTAIN, NOTRE
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE REPOSE SUR UN COMPROMIS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES ET SE RAPPROCHE NOTAMMENT DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE D'IA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DUDZAI A BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 27C,
FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE).
CEPENDANT, DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, LE FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. DE
PLUS, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
ET UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIENT
CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME ENTRE MARDI ET MERCREDI. IL DEVRAIT
AINSI ETRE RETROGRADE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A PARTIR DE MARDI
SOIR. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.
NEANMOINS, SON MOUVEMENT PLUS RAPIDE VERS L'OUEST DEVRAIT FAIRE DE
NOUVEAU AUGMENTER LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET UNE LEGERE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT RESTE POSSIBLE ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI, DEPENDANT DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OU MOINS ELOIGNEE AU NORD DU COURANT-JET D'ALTITUDE.
EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TRES INCERTAINE POUR CE
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE ET DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 121838
WTIO40 FMEE 121819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 121838
WTIO41 FMEE 121819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 77.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 938 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 17/01/2026 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121817
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 938 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF DUDZAI HAS STABILIZED. THE POLAR
SIDE OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL PRESENT AND INDICATES EFFICIENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE LATEST DVORAK EYE ANALYSES GIVE A DT AT 6.5,
EQUIVALENT TO AN INTENSITY OF 110KT. FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY,
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE. DUDZAI REMAINS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, HINDERED BY CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST. ITS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN VERY SLOW FROM NOW UNTIL
AT LEAST TOMORROW EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE ITS
TURN. THE SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER AFTER WEDNESDAY : SOME MODELS,
SUCH AS IFS, FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT, WHILE OTHERS, SUCH
AS HWRF AND HAFS, FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THIS UNCERTAIN
CONTEXT, OUR TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN
MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE IA ENSEMBLE AVERAGES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI HAS BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS AT 27AOC,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL). HOWEVER, IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION, IT COULD UNDERGO AN EYE REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE OR A TEMPORARY NORTHWESTERLY MID SHEAR. IT
SHOULD THEREFORE BE RETROGRADED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
SHEAR COULD TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 77.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 937 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL DE DUDZAI S'EST STABILISE. LE
CANAL D'EVACUATION DU COTE POLAIRE EST TOUJOURS PRESENT ET TEMOIGNE
D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EFFICACE. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES EN OEIL
DE DVORAK DONNENT UN DT A 6.5, EQUIVALENT A UNE INTENSITE DE 110KT. A
TITRE INDICATIF, LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT LEGEREMENT MOINS
INTENSES. DUDZAI MAINTIENT SON NIVEAU DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

LE SYSTEME PROGRESSE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRAVE DANS DES FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE DORSALES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A
L'EST ET AU NORD-OUEST. SON DEPLACEMENT RESTE TRES LENT D'ICI DEMAIN
SOIR A MINIMA. PAR LA SUITE,LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT ORIENTER
PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION EST
IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA CHRONOLOGIE DE L'ARRIVEE
DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE SON VIRAGE. LA DISPERSION S'ACCROIT
ENCORE APRES MERCREDI : CERTAINS MODELES PREVOYANT UN DEPLACEMENT
OUEST-SUD-OUEST COMME IFS ET D'AUTRES OUEST-NORD-OUEST COMME HWRF ET
HAFS AVANT DE PLONGER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN FIN DE SEMAINE. DANS CE
CONTEXTE INCERTAIN, NOTRE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE REPOSE SUR UN
COMPROMIS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES ET SE RAPPROCHE NOTAMMENT DES
MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE D'IA ET EN CONSIDERANT QUE LE MODELE EUROPEEN EST
ASSEZ ISOLE AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DUDZAI A BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 27C,
FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE).
CEPENDANT, DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, LE FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES,
LIMITANT LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SUPPLEMENTAIRE. EN OUTRE, IL
POURRAIT SUBIR UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL PROCHAINEMENT OU UN
CISAILLEMENT TEMPORAIRE DE NORD-OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL
DEVRAIT ETRE AINSI RETROGRADE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR
DE MERCREDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST
POURRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DONC TRES INCERTAINE POUR CE SYSTEME DE PETITE
TAILLE ET DEPENDRA DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO40 FMEE 121233
WTIO40 FMEE 121223
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO41 FMEE 121233
WTIO41 FMEE 121223
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 77.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 937 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 17/01/2026 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121221
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 937 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 77.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 00 UTC:
17.0 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 77.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.2S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.3S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 77.8E.
12JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 649
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260112074258
2026011206 14S DUDZAI 004 02 155 02 SATL 030
T000 166S 0778E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 169S 0779E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0779E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 173S 0775E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 173S 0769E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 174S 0748E 085 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 175S 0729E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 185S 0702E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 77.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.2S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.3S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 77.8E.
12JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 649
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011118 159S 773E 75
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011200 164S 777E 85
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
1426011206 166S 778E 100
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 77.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/12 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH A CLEARER
AND WARMER CENTER. THE POLAR SIDE OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL PRESENT
AND INDICATES EFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. LAST DVORAK EYE ANALYSES
GIVE A DT OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0, EQUIVALENT TO AN INTENSITY
OF 95KT. SOME OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUCH AS DPRINT AND AIDT CONFIRM THIS
ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE REACHED THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN, CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS RIDGE AND THEREFORE ITS TURN.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK, DUDZAI
SHOULD HEAD SOUTHWEST. OUR TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE MAIN MODELS, WHILE NOTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FAIRLY
ISOLATED WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI HAS BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS AT 27AOC,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL). HOWEVER, IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SLOW MOVEMENT COULD LEAD TO THE COOLING
OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. MOREOVER IT COULD UNDERGO AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE
SOON OR A TEMPORARY MID NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IT SHOULD THEREFORE BE
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASED
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD TRIGGER A GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THIS
SMALL SYSTEM AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 77.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2026 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

120H: 17/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE L'OEIL S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UN CENTRE PLUS NET ET PLUS CHAUD. LE CANAL
D'EVACUATION DU COTE POLAIRE EST TOUJOURS PRESENT ET TEMOIGNE D'UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EFFICACE. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES EN OEIL DE
DVORAK DONNENT UN DT OSCILLANT ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.0, EQUIVALENT A UNE
INTENSITE DE 95KT. CERTAINES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES COMME DPRINT ET AIDT
CONFIRMENT CETTE ESTIMATION. LE SYSTEME A DONC ATTEINT LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE A RALENTIR PRIS DANS DES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES
AVEC LA PRESENCE DE DORSALES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST ET AU
NORD-OUEST. IL DEVRAIT DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD DANS LES
PROOCHAINES 24 HEURES. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI,LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT ORIENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST. LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA
CHRONOLOGIE DE L'ARRIVEE DE CETTE DORSALE ET DONC DE SON VIRAGE.
AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, DUDZAI
DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST. NOTRE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
REPOSE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, TOUT EN NOTANT QUE LE
MODELE EUROPEEN EST ASSEZ ISOLE AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, DUDZAI A BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 27C,
FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE).
CEPENDANT, DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, LE FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES,
LIMITANT LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SUPPLEMENTAIRE. EN OUTRE, IL
POURRAIT SUBIR UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL PROCHAINEMENT OU UN
CISAILLEMENT TEMPORAIRE DE NORD-OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL
DEVRAIT ETRE AINSI RETROGRADER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR
DE MERCREDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DONC TRES INCERTAINE POUR CE SYSTEME DE PETITE
TAILLE ET DEPENDRA DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 77.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 77.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/12 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI'S CONVECTION HAS FURTHER IMPROVED AND
IT HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE PATTERN. THE POLAR SIDE OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
STILL PRESENT AND INDICATES EFFICIENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE 2001Z
GCOM-W IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-FORMED EYE AT 37 AND 89 GHZ WITH
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION. DVORAK'S EYE ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 5.0+,
WHILE THE MET ADJUSTED BY THE PT IS 5.0. THE FINAL T NUMBER SELECTED
IS 5.0. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES GIVE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 65-75KT BUT
STILL SEEM A LITTLE WEAK. THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED VALUE CHOSEN
IS THEREFORE BETWEEN 75 AND 80KT AND THE SYSTEM IS STILL AT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EAST UNTIL THIS EVENING, DRIVEN
BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. NEXT NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, IT WILL BE CAUGHT
IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD
IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THE WESTWARD TURN AND THEN ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS (LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 27C, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). DUDZAI SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ITS PEAK
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND COULD REACH
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF MODELS. BUT IT COULD SUFFER AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE ON
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADE IT TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120053
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 77.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 15/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 480 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 17/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION DE DUDZAI S'EST ENCORE
AMELIOREE ET IL A DEVELOPPE UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL. LE CANAL
D'EVACUATION DU COTE POLAIRE EST TOUJOURS PRESENT ET TEMOIGNE D'UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EFFICACE. L'IMAGE GCOM-W DE 2001Z MONTRE UN
OEIL BIEN FORME EN 37 ET 89 GHZ AVEC UNE CONVECTION SYMETRIQUE.
L'ANALYSE EN OEIL DE DVORAK DONNE UN DT DE 5.0+ ALORS QUE LE MET
AJUSTE PAR LE PT EST A 5.0. LE NOMBRE T FINAL RETENU EST DE 5.0 . LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DONNENT DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 65-75KT MAIS
PARAISSENT ENCORE UN PEU FAIBLES. LA VALEUR DE VENT MAXIMAL MOYEN
CHOISIE EST DONC ENTRE 75 ET 80KT ET LE SYSTEME EST TOUJOURS AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

LE SYSTEME SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-EST JUSQU'A CE
SOIR, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST.
LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET MARDI, ALORS QU'IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE SON MAXIMUM
D'INTENSITE, IL SERA PRIS DANS DES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES ET DEVRAIT
FORTEMENT RALENTIR. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT
INDUIRE UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS L'OUEST. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT
S'ACCELERER EN FIN DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE ENTRE MODELES
SUR LE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST PUIS SUR LA LATITUDE A LAQUELLE CIRCULERA
LE SYSTEME EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, DUDZAI BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 A 72 HEURES (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 27C, FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE). DUDZAI DEVRAIT
DONC CONTINUER A SE RENFORCER, AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE. SON PIC D'INTENSITE EST PREVU AUTOUR DE CETTE NUIT ET MARDI
ET POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, COMME LE
SUGGERENT DE PLUS EN PLUS DE MODELES. MAIS IL POURRAIT SUBIR UN CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL DANS LA JOURNEE DE MARDI, CE QUI POURRAIT
LE RETROGRADER TEMPORAIREMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR
DE MERCREDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST IMPORTANTE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120030
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 77.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/13 AT 00 UTC:
17.0 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260111194158
2026011118 14S DUDZAI 003 02 140 06 SATL 020
T000 160S 0774E 075 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 163S 0777E 085 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 166S 0779E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 168S 0780E 090 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 170S 0780E 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 174S 0765E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 176S 0743E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 182S 0714E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 77.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 77.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.0S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 77.5E.
11JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011106 150S 767E 55
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011112 155S 770E 65
1426011118 160S 774E 75
1426011118 160S 774E 75
1426011118 160S 774E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 77.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 77.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.0S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 77.5E.
11JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 77.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/12 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/12 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND PATTERN,
EVEN LOOKING LIKE A RAGGED EYE. BUT THE NOTABLE FEATURE IS THE
STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION, WITH VERY COLD PEAKS DISPOSED ALMOST
SYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, A EVACUATION CHANNEL ON
THE POLAR SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SATELLITE IMAGES,
UNDERLINING AN EFFICIENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE OCCASIONAL
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVECTION HAS MADE IT
POSSIBLE TO POSITION THE CENTER. IN TERMS OF DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE DT
IS 4.5 AND THE MET IS 3.5, ADJUSTED TO 4.0 BY THE PT. THE FINAL T
NUMBER IS A COMPROMISE AT 4.5-. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES WERE NOT USED AS
THEY WERE CONSIDERED TOO WEAK. THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED VALUE
CHOSEN IS THEREFORE 65KT AND THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST UNTIL MONDAY, DRIVEN
BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST. AROUND
TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, IT WILL
BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THE WESTWARD TURN
AND THEN ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS (LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 28C THEN 27C, STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). DUDZAI SHOULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY AND COULD REACH INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
MODELS. FROM WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANT AT THE END OF THE WEEK: THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY UPWARD IN LINE WITH A GROWING
NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGESTING LESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111848
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 77.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 12/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 13/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 555 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A DEVELOPPE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN BANDE INCURVEE VOIRE MEME EN OEIL DECHIQUETE. MAIS L'ELEMENT
NOTABLE EST LE REFORCEMENT DE LA CONVECTION PRESENTANT DES SOMMETS
TRES FROIDS DISPOSES PRESQUE SYMETRIQUEMENT AUTOUR DU CENTRE. DE PLUS
UN CANAL D'EVACUATION DU COTE POLAIRE DU SYSTEME EST MIS EN EVIDENCES
PAR LES IMAGES SATELLITE, SOULIGNANT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
EFFICACE. L'APPARITION PONCTUELLE D'UN OEIL AU MILIEU DE LA
CONVECTION A PERMIS DE POSITIONNER LE CENTRE. EN TERMES D'ANALYSE
DVORAK, LE DT EST DE 4.5 ET LE MET EST A 3.5, AJUSTE A 4.0 PAR LE PT.
LE NOMBRE T FINAL EST UN COMPROMIS A 4.5- . LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
N'ONT PAS ETE UTILISEES CAR ESTIMEES TROP FAIBLES. LA VALEUR DE VENT
MAXIMAL MOYEN CHOISIE EST DONC DE 65KT ET LE SYSTEME EST CLASSE
CYCLONE TROPICAL.

LE SYSTEME SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST JUSQU'A
LUNDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU
NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST. AUTOUR DE MARDI, ALORS QU'IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE
SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE, IL SERA PRIS DANS DES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES
ET DEVRAIT FORTEMENT RALENTIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR OU MERCREDI, LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT INDUIRE UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS L'OUEST. LE
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER EN FIN DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. LA DISPERSION EST
IMPORTANTE ENTRE MODELES SUR LE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST PUIS SUR LA
LATITUDE A LAQUELLE CIRCULERA LE SYSTEME EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, DUDZAI BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 A 60 HEURES (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 28C PUIS 27C, FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE). DUDZAI DEVRAIT
DONC CONTINUER A SE RENFORCER, AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE. SON PIC D'INTENSITE EST PREVU AUTOUR DE MARDI ET POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, COMME LE SUGGERENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS DE MODELES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST IMPORTANTE
EN FIN DE SEMAINE : LA PREVISION A ETE REVUE UN PEU A LA HAUSSE EN
LIGNE AVEC UN NOMBRE CROISSANT DE MODELES SUGGERANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT MOINS IMPORTANT.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111832
WTIO41 FMEE 111832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/6/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 77.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 12/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 13/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 14/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 16/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 555 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2026
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/01/2026 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 77.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111824
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 77.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 77.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/12 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/12 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE PATTERN,
FIRST APPEARING IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A BIT LATER IN INFRARED,
SHORTLY BEFORE 12UTC. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4.0 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE MET IS AT 3.5, ADJUSTED TO 4.0
BY THE PT. THE FINAL T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PT. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES (GPM-GMI AT 0733Z, NOAA21-ATMS AT 0815Z AND NPP-ATMS AT 0845Z)
SHOW THIS IMPROVING STRUCTURE BUT DISPLAY A STILL POORLY FORMED AND
PARTIALLY OPEN EYE FEATURE. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT, DMINT,
SATCON) ARE AROUND 55 TO 60KT (1-MIN WINDS). THE RSMC'S ANALYSIS
MAKES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS INPUTS, WITH AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 55KT AT 12UTC. NOTE THAT THE TRANSITION FROM THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN TO THE EYE FEATURE HAS CAUSED A TROCHOIDAL SOUTHWARD
MOTION OF DUDZAI'S CENTER, MAKING IT MOVE MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE OR LESS TEMPORARY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EAST THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST
UNTIL MONDAY, DRIVEN BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST. AROUND TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY, IT WILL BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING
THE WESTWARD TURN AND THEN ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS (LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS NEAR 28C THEN 27C, STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL). DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
AROUND TUESDAY AND COULD REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MODELS. FROM WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANT AT THE END OF THE WEEK: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD IN LINE WITH A GROWING NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGESTING
LESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111232
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 77.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 12/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 13/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A DEVELOPPE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN OEIL DECHIQUETE APPARAISSANT D'ABORD EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE PUIS EN
IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE, UN PEU AVANT 12UTC. EN TERMES D'ANALYSE DVORAK,
LE DT EST PROCHE OU LEGEREMENT SUPERIEUR A 4.0 SUR LES DERNIERES
HEURES. LE MET EST A 3.5, AJUSTE A 4.0 PAR LE PT. LE NOMBRE T FINAL
EST BASE SUR LE PT. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (GPM-GMI A
0733Z, NOAA21-ATMS A 0815Z ET NPP-ATMS A 0845Z) TEMOIGNENT DE CETTE
AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE MAIS MONTRENT UN OEIL ENCORE MAL FORME ET
PARTIELLEMENT OUVERT. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (ADT,
DMINT, SATCON) SE SITUENT ENTRE 55 ET 60KT (VENTS 1-MIN). L'ANALYSE
CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DIFFERENTES DONNEES, AVEC UNE
INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 55KT A 12UTC. A NOTER QUE LA TRANSITION ENTRE LA
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE A LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL A OCCASIONNE
UN MOUVEMENT TROCHOIDAL DU CENTRE DE DUDZAI UN PEU PLUS AU SUD QUE
PREVU, MAIS QUI POURRAIT ETRE PLUS OU MOINS TEMPORAIRE.

LE SYSTEME SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS
SUD-SUD-EST JUSQU'A LUNDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST. AUTOUR DE MARDI, ALORS
QU'IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE, IL SERA PRIS DANS
DES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES ET DEVRAIT FORTEMENT RALENTIR. A PARTIR DE
MARDI SOIR OU MERCREDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT INDUIRE UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF
VERS L'OUEST. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER EN FIN DE SEMAINE EN
LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. LA
DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE ENTRE MODELES SUR LE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST
PUIS SUR LA LATITUDE A LAQUELLE CIRCULERA LE SYSTEME EN FIN DE
SEMAINE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, DUDZAI BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 A 60 HEURES (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 28C PUIS 27C, FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE). DUDZAI DEVRAIT
DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL ENTRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE
ET LUNDI, AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. SON PIC
D'INTENSITE EST PREVU AUTOUR DE MARDI ET POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, COMME LE SUGGERENT DE PLUS EN PLUS DE
MODELES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF.
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST IMPORTANTE EN FIN DE
SEMAINE : LA PREVISION A ETE REVUE UN PEU A LA HAUSSE EN LIGNE AVEC
UN NOMBRE CROISSANT DE MODELES SUGGERANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MOINS
IMPORTANT.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111230
WTIO41 FMEE 111220
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/6/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 77.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 12/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 13/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 13/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 14/01/2026 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 14/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 16/01/2026 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2026
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/01/2026 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 77.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 260111074617
2026011106 14S DUDZAI 002 02 135 07 SATL 030
T000 150S 0770E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 157S 0777E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 164S 0783E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 169S 0785E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 174S 0783E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 179S 0773E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 179S 0754E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 175S 0730E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.4S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.4S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 77.2E.
11JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
1426010618 110S 717E 15
1426010700 111S 722E 15
1426010706 111S 728E 20
1426010712 109S 732E 20
1426010718 109S 733E 20
1426010800 109S 735E 20
1426010806 109S 737E 20
1426010812 110S 739E 20
1426010818 111S 745E 25
1426010900 113S 746E 25
1426010906 116S 748E 25
1426010912 117S 752E 25
1426010918 118S 756E 25
1426011000 122S 760E 30
1426011006 128S 761E 30
1426011012 134S 761E 40
1426011018 140S 760E 40
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011100 145S 765E 50
1426011106 150S 770E 55
1426011106 150S 770E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.4S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.4S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 77.2E.
11JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 76.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/11 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/12 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/12 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/13 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND PATTERN
WRAPPING THE WHOLE WAY ROUND WITH CONTINUED INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER LOCATED AT THE HEAD OF THE CURVED BAND.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A MET OF 3.0, ADJUSTED TO 3.5 BY
THE PT, IN LINE WITH A DT OF 3.5. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW ASCAT DATA
THIS MORNING, THE INTENSITY WAS RISEN TO 45KT AT 06UTC, BUT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED, PARTICULARLY IN RELATION TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE.
IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S PAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS,
ESTIMATED AT 35KT ON SATURDAY AT 18UTC AND 40KT AT 00UTC (DVORAK
ANALYSIS REVISED UP TO 3.0 AT 00UTC), TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SATURDAY
EVENING'S ASCAT DATA WHICH ALREADY INDICATED AT LEAST 35-40KT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EAST UNTIL MONDAY, DRIVEN BY
THE MONSOON FLOW AND THEN BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. AROUND TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY, IT WILL BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AT
HIGHER ALTITUDES AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE MOVEMENT
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES STEERED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BENEFITING FROM
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS
NEAR 28C THEN 27C, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL) FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BY MONDAY, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY AND
COULD APPROACH OR MAYBE REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. FROM
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND, SLOW AT FIRST, BUT POSSIBLY FASTER FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110637
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20252026
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 76.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 12/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 12/01/2026 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 13/01/2026 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 13/01/2026 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 14/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

120H: 16/01/2026 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DUDZAI A DEVELOPPE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT SUR UN TOUR COMPLET AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE TOUJOURS INTENSE PRES DU CENTRE AU NIVEAU DE LA TETE DE LA
BANDE INCURVEE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN MET A 3.0,
AJUSTE A 3.5 PAR LE PT, EN ACCORD AVEC UN DT A 3.5. EN L'ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES ASCAT CE MATIN, L'INTENSITE EST MONTEE A 45KT A
06UTC, MAIS POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU SOUS-ESTIMEE, NOTAMMENT EN LIEN AVEC
LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR CONVECTIF.
DE PLUS, L'INTENSITE PASSEE DU SYSTEME A ETE REAJUSTEE A LA HAUSSE A
POSTERIORI, ESTIMEE A 35KT LE 10 A 18UTC ET 40KT A 00UTC (ANALYSE
DVORAK REMONTEE A 3.0 A 00UTC), TENANT COMPTE DES DONNEES ASCAT DE
SAMEDI SOIR QUI INDIQUAIT DEJA AU MOINS 35-40KT.

LE SYSTEME SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-EST JUSQU'A
LUNDI, PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DE MOUSSON PUIS PAR UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU NORD-EST. AUTOUR DE MARDI, ALORS QU'IL DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE, IL SERA PRIS DANS DES FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES A PLUS HAUTES ALTITUDES ET DEVRAIT FORTEMENT
RALENTIR. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT INDUIRE UN
VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS L'OUEST. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER EN
FIN DE SEMAINE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS FORT REVENANT EN
BASSE TROPOSPHERE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, DUDZAI BENEFICIE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL, EAUX CHAUDES A 28C
PUIS 27C, FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE
POLAIRE) POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 A 72H. DUDZAI DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI DEMAIN LUNDI, AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. SON PIC D'INTENSITE EST PREVU AUTOUR DE
MARDI ET POURRAIT S'APPROCHER VOIRE ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT, D'ABORD
LENT, PUIS POSSIBLEMENT PLUS RAPIDE A PARTIR DE JEUDI.

AUCUN IMPACT N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/01/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 76.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/11 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110014
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 76.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/11 AT 12 UTC:
15.8 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=