Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SONIA-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 290832
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sonia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Sonia has succumbed to hostile environmental conditions, with
satellite imagery showing no deep convection near the low-level
center for about 15 hours. Therefore, Sonia is being a declared
post-tropical cyclone. The latest subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB reflect this, deeming the system too
weak to classify. A 0541 UTC Metop-B ASCAT pass revealed a large
area of 25-kt winds, with a peak wind vector of 26 kt. Taking into
account the likelihood of some undersampling, the initial intensity
for the post-tropical remnant low of Sonia is set at 30 kt.

Sonia will continue moving westward during the next day or so,
steered by the low-level flow, while remaining embedded within a
hostile environment. Regeneration of organized deep convection is
not expected, and the remnant low of Sonia is forecast to dissipate
by Thursday, if not sooner.

For additional information on the post-tropical remnant low please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the
web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/1800Z 15.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z 14.7N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 290832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2025

...SONIA WEAKENS INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 126.1W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SONIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 290831
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0900 UTC WED OCT 29 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.2N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.7N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 126.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SONIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 290241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Sonia appears to have finally succumbed to the strong southerly
shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be near 26 kt, while moving over
cooler waters below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment with
humidity values below 50 percent. Deep convection was sheared away
from the center around or shortly after 1800 UTC and has not
returned, indicating that Sonia’s time as a tropical cyclone is
nearly over. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt and 2.0/30 kt,
respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 28
to 39 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for
this advisory is held at, perhaps a generous, 35 kt.

Sonia is now moving westward, or 280 degrees at 8 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through dissipation. The official
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and represents a
blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and FSSE track aids.

Strong southerly shear is expected to persist during the next day or
so while Sonia remains over cool waters of 25–26C and within dry
mid-level air below 50 percent. As a result, gradual weakening is
anticipated, and Sonia is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low later tonight and dissipate by Thursday. The intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous advisory and remains closely aligned
with the various intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 15.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 290241
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025

...SONIA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM, EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 125.3W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST. SONIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, WITH SONIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 290240
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0300 UTC WED OCT 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.4N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025

The center of Sonia has become exposed on the southern side of a
decreasing area of deep convection. A scatterometer pass indicated
lower winds (30-35 kt) within the circulation than the overnight
pass, and conventional satellite estimates are also decreasing.
Thus, the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

Sonia is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt through an increasingly
dry and sheared environment across cooler SSTs. Further slow
weakening is anticipated while the system turns westward due to the
low-level flow. Global models suggest that Sonia has produced its
last organized convective burst, which is consistent with the
unfavorable environment. Therefore, remnant low status is shown in
12 hours. The updated NHC track and intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous one and the consensus/corrected-consensus
aids. The circulation is still forecast by the global models to
open up into a trough in about 48 hours, therefore dissipation is
shown at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 15.3N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.4N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 15.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 282031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025

...SONIA WEAKENING, FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 124.3W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST. SONIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT OR
TWO, WITH SONIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 282031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 124.3W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 124.3W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.3N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 124.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 78.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2025 0 17.5N 78.0W 930 110
0000UTC 29.10.2025 12 19.4N 77.0W 943 91
1200UTC 29.10.2025 24 21.5N 75.5W 960 76
0000UTC 30.10.2025 36 24.0N 74.1W 957 77
1200UTC 30.10.2025 48 27.2N 72.0W 943 99
0000UTC 31.10.2025 60 31.4N 68.2W 954 85
1200UTC 31.10.2025 72 36.4N 61.9W 962 78
0000UTC 01.11.2025 84 42.0N 55.3W 959 63
1200UTC 01.11.2025 96 47.0N 46.9W 961 57
0000UTC 02.11.2025 108 51.5N 35.4W 969 50
1200UTC 02.11.2025 120 54.6N 22.1W 973 47
0000UTC 03.11.2025 132 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 123.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2025 0 15.0N 123.2W 1005 30
0000UTC 29.10.2025 12 15.2N 124.9W 1007 25
1200UTC 29.10.2025 24 15.5N 127.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 30.10.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 32.0N 62.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2025 144 32.0N 62.2W 1016 37
0000UTC 04.11.2025 156 32.9N 58.6W 1014 28
1200UTC 04.11.2025 168 33.4N 53.2W 1012 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281605


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 281605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 78.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2025 17.5N 78.0W INTENSE
00UTC 29.10.2025 19.4N 77.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.10.2025 21.5N 75.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.10.2025 24.0N 74.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 27.2N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2025 31.4N 68.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2025 36.4N 61.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2025 42.0N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 47.0N 46.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2025 51.5N 35.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 54.6N 22.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2025 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 123.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2025 15.0N 123.2W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2025 15.2N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 15.5N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 32.0N 62.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2025 32.0N 62.2W WEAK
00UTC 04.11.2025 32.9N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2025 33.4N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281605


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 281435
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Sonia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with a large area of deep
convection located to the northwest of the low-level center. There
is little banding evident in conventional and recent microwave
imagery. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based
primarily on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak T-number of 2.5
from TAFB. Moderate to strong southern shear is expected to persist
during the next couple of days while Sonia moves over gradually
decreasing SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment. These
negative factors are expected to result in weakening and
degeneration into a remnant low within 24 hours. The circulation is
forecast by the global models to open up into a trough in about 48
hours, therefore dissipation is shown at that time.

Sonia is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 7 kt. A turn
toward the west is expected later today as the cyclone becomes
vertically shallow. The updated NHC track is a blend of the latest
Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 15.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 15.3N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 30/0000Z 15.1N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 281435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...SONIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 123.5W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 123.5 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, followed by a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next or two, with Sonia
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 281435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.3N 126.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.1N 128.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 123.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 280849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025

The satellite presentation of Sonia has changed little since the
previous advisory, with a small area of deep convection persisting
over or near the cyclone’s low-level center. The latest subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.0/30 kt
and 1.5/25 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
range from 33 to 38 kt. A timely 0507 UTC Metop-C ASCAT pass
revealed a swath of 35-kt winds, with a peak vector of 36 kt. Taking
into account possible undersampling in the satellite-derived winds
and the persistence of convection over or near the center for
roughly 12 hours, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt for this
advisory.

Sonia is moving west-northwest, or 300 degrees, at 7 kt. A turn
toward the west is expected later today as Sonia’s circulation
becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
forecast has been nudged slightly north of the previous track,
reflecting the continued west-northwest motion observed since the
last advisory. The forecast track lies closest to a blend of the
HFIP Corrected Consensus and Google DeepMind ensemble mean guidance.

Sonia’s days appear to be numbered as the cyclone continues to be
affected by moderate to strong southerly wind shear, analyzed near
22 kt by UW-CIMSS. The shear is expected to increase slightly
within about 12 hours, while Sonia moves over gradually cooling
waters and into a drier mid-level environment. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicates that deep convection should
collapse in about 12 hours under these increasingly hostile
conditions. This is expected to result in gradual weakening, with
Sonia forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight and
dissipate on Thursday. The intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory and remains close to a blend of the latest
consensus and SHIPS guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 14.8N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 15.0N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 15.1N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 15.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 14.6N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280848
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025

...SONIA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 122.8W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST. SONIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
SONIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280848
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 122.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 123.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.1N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.6N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 78.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2025 16.6N 78.3W INTENSE
12UTC 28.10.2025 17.8N 77.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.10.2025 19.7N 76.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 22.2N 74.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 24.9N 72.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 27.8N 70.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2025 31.8N 67.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 36.4N 61.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2025 41.4N 54.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 45.9N 47.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2025 49.7N 36.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2025 53.1N 24.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2025 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2025 14.2N 121.7W WEAK
12UTC 28.10.2025 14.7N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 14.8N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 14.7N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 32.3N 74.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2025 32.3N 74.3W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2025 34.9N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 37.6N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 38.3N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 28.4N 85.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2025 28.4N 85.0W WEAK
12UTC 03.11.2025 29.3N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2025 28.6N 77.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280359


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 280231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

The satellite presentation of Sonia has changed little since the
previous advisory, with a small area of deep convection persisting
over the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt and 2.0/30 kt,
respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged
from 31 to 41 kt. A blend of these data, along with an earlier
ASCAT Metop-C pass that sampled a broad area of 30-33 kt winds when
convection was absent, supports maintaining the initial intensity at
35 kt for this advisory.

Sonia is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 6 kt. A turn
toward the west is expected later tonight or Tuesday as the
circulation becomes shallower and the system is steered along by the
low-level flow. The official forecast track has been nudged
slightly north of the previous one due to the more west-northwest
motion observed since the last advisory, and it lies close to the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Sonia’s days appear to be numbered, as the cyclone remains affected
by strong southerly shear—currently analyzed near 25 kt by UW-CIMSS.
The shear is expected to increase slightly over the next day or so
while Sonia moves over gradually cooling waters and into a drier
mid-level environment. These factors should result in a steady
weakening trend, with the system likely to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate on Thursday. The intensity
forecast has been adjusted slightly higher than the previous
advisory, based on recent satellite trends and the latest consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 14.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.7N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.9N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 14.9N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 280230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...SONIA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 122.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 122.2 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later tonight or Tuesday, followed
by a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with
Sonia expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 280230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.2W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.2W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.9N 124.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.9N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 272102
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Sonia is producing only intermittent convection over the low-level
center. Previous convection that was displaced well north of the
center has dissipated. Latest satellite intensity estimates have
decreased and range from 30 to 35 kt from SAB, TAFB and UW-CIMSS.
Using these estimates and the current satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving westward at an estimated motion of 275/6 kt.
This general motion should continue as the system weakens and is
steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is
near the previous, only nudged slightly to the right towards the
HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions.

Moderate wind shear, and a drier more stable airmass have taken
their toll on Sonia today. The GFS model simulated IR satellite
shows that the system will not produce anymore convection, while the
ECMWF shows a burst occuring later this evening or tonight. The
latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 h, although that could occur sooner if organized
deep convection does not return over the low-level center tonight.
The system is forecast to dissipate and open into a trough in about
two to three days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 14.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 272102
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...SONIA MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 121.6W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 121.6 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Sonia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low
Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 272102
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
2100 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 121.6W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 121.6W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.2N 122.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 78.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2025 0 16.2N 78.0W 954 79
0000UTC 28.10.2025 12 16.8N 78.1W 940 97
1200UTC 28.10.2025 24 18.0N 78.0W 958 66
0000UTC 29.10.2025 36 19.7N 76.5W 958 73
1200UTC 29.10.2025 48 22.1N 74.8W 962 78
0000UTC 30.10.2025 60 24.5N 73.1W 957 79
1200UTC 30.10.2025 72 27.5N 70.7W 942 97
0000UTC 31.10.2025 84 31.5N 67.1W 948 95
1200UTC 31.10.2025 96 36.7N 61.6W 950 84
0000UTC 01.11.2025 108 42.5N 55.3W 953 75
1200UTC 01.11.2025 120 46.3N 47.8W 968 53
0000UTC 02.11.2025 132 48.1N 37.7W 978 46
1200UTC 02.11.2025 144 49.7N 25.1W 979 41
0000UTC 03.11.2025 156 52.2N 15.3W 970 50
1200UTC 03.11.2025 168 54.3N 5.6W 970 51

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2025 0 13.8N 120.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 28.10.2025 12 14.2N 121.8W 1003 28
1200UTC 28.10.2025 24 14.4N 122.8W 1005 29
0000UTC 29.10.2025 36 14.7N 124.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 29.10.2025 48 14.8N 126.3W 1010 24
0000UTC 30.10.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 26.4N 30.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.11.2025 132 26.4N 30.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 02.11.2025 144 27.0N 30.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 03.11.2025 156 27.8N 30.4W 1014 23
1200UTC 03.11.2025 168 28.9N 29.1W 1015 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271604


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 78.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.2N 78.0W INTENSE
00UTC 28.10.2025 16.8N 78.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.10.2025 18.0N 78.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.10.2025 19.7N 76.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 22.1N 74.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 24.5N 73.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2025 27.5N 70.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2025 31.5N 67.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2025 36.7N 61.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 42.5N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 46.3N 47.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.11.2025 48.1N 37.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 49.7N 25.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2025 52.2N 15.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2025 54.3N 5.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2025 13.8N 120.9W WEAK
00UTC 28.10.2025 14.2N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 14.4N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 14.7N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 14.8N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 26.4N 30.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2025 26.4N 30.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.11.2025 27.0N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2025 27.8N 30.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2025 28.9N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271604


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 271454
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...SHEARED SONIA MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 121.1W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 121.1 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Sonia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday or
Wednesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 271435
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Satellite images show that the low-level center is exposed, with
southerly wind shear causing convection to be displaced to the
north. Satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 45 kt,
thus the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

The system looks to have turned back towards the west at an
estimated motion of 275/6 kt. This general motion should continue as
the system weakens and becomes more shallow, and steered by the
low-level wind flow. The NHC track was nudged slightly south
towards the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind solution.

Sonia is moving into an increasingly unfavorable environment. Wind
shear is expected to increase, with cooling SSTs, and drier air
along the forecast track. This should lead to a gradual weakening
trend, and model simulated IR satellite shows convection diminishing
by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends with the
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 36 h. The system is
forecast to dissipate and open into a trough in two to three days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.1N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.2N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1200Z 14.2N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 271432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...SHEARED SONIA MOVING WESTWARD..


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 121.1W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 121.1 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Sonia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday or
Wednesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 271432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
1500 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 121.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 121.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.2N 124.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.2N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 121.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Satellite imagery shows a renewed burst of deep convection over and
just north of the low-level circulation center during the past
several hours, despite the steady southerly wind shear affecting it.
Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak and objective intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward at about 285/6 kt, and this
general motion is expected to persist today, as the subtropical
ridge remains positioned to the north. By Tuesday, Sonia should
gradually turn toward the west as it becomes a shallow system
embedded within the low-level trade-wind flow. The NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus aids.

Although Sonia has been able to regenerate convection and may
continue to do so intermittently during the next day or so, the
unfavorable environment surrounding the system is expected to begin
taking its toll soon. Moderate southerly shear, marginal sea-surface
temperatures, and a drier, more stable environment along the
forecast path should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows convection
steadily diminishing by Tuesday, and Sonia is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low by that time. Dissipation is expected to
occur by midweek as the remnant low opens into a trough. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and
remains close to the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 14.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 14.7N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...SONIA HOLDING STEADY WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 120.6W
ABOUT 920 MI...1485 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 120.6 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west is expected by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Sonia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0900 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 120.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 120.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 121.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.8N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.7N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 120.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Sonia has degraded during the past
12 to 24 h as persistent moderate southerly wind shear has displaced
deep convection mostly north of the low-level circulation center.
The circulation is now partially exposed on the southern edge of the
deep convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak and
objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 40
kt.

Sonia is moving west-northwestward at about 295/5 kt, and this
general motion is expected to persist over the next day or so, as
the subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north. By Tuesday,
Sonia should gradually turn toward the west as it becomes a shallow
system embedded within the low-level trade-wind flow. The NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus aids.

Moderate southerly wind shear continues to affect Sonia and is
expected to generally hold steady during the next couple of days, if
not increase slightly. This, combined with cooler waters and a
drier, more stable environment ahead of the cyclone, should result
in a gradual weakening trend beginning within the next 12 to 24
hours. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF shows
convection diminishing significantly by Tuesday, suggesting that
Sonia will lose organized deep convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low by that time. Dissipation is expected by Wednesday as
the remnant low continues westward and opens into a trough. The
updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus aids
and remains similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 14.1N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 14.3N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.6N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 14.8N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 14.8N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 14.7N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025

...SONIA HOLDING STEADY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 120.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST. SONIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
SONIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0300 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.0W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.0W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.6N 121.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.8N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.7N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 262050
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Visible satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
show that the low-level center was slightly further east than the
previous advisory, on the southeastern side of the convection.
Convection has been waning over the last few hours, with warming
cloud tops. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30
to 44 kt, and the peak satellite derived winds from ASCAT-B were 36
kt. Using this data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this
advisory. The wind radii have been adjusted and refined with the
scatterometer data.

Sonia is moving slowly west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
295/03 kt. This west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is anticipated over the next day or so. Once the system begins
to weaken, the storm will turn back towards the west steered by the
low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the
previous, between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind
aids.

Sonia continues to deal with moderate southerly wind shear, which
will increase over the next couple of days. The latest sea surface
temperature analysis shows that the system is moving into sub 27C
ocean temperatures, with even cooler SSTs, and a drier more stable
airmass along the forecast track. Given the latest satellite trends
and the less than favorable environmental conditions, intensity aids
show a gradual weakening trend. The GFS and ECMWF model simulated IR
satellite shows that the system will struggle to produce enough
convection to be categorized as a tropical system by 60h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the
consensus aids, becoming a remnant low in 60h and then dissipating
by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 14.5N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 262049
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...SONIA WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 119.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 119.8 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue through Monday. As the system weakens, a
more westward turn at a slightly faster forward motion is expected.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 262049
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
2100 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 119.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 119.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 122.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.5N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2025 16.2N 76.4W STRONG
00UTC 27.10.2025 16.6N 77.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.8N 77.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2025 17.4N 77.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2025 18.4N 77.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.10.2025 19.7N 75.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 22.0N 74.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 24.4N 71.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 27.4N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 31.4N 66.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2025 36.4N 61.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2025 42.6N 54.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 46.6N 45.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2025 47.7N 38.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 47.8N 27.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2025 13.4N 119.7W WEAK
00UTC 27.10.2025 13.7N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 14.2N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 14.2N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 13.9N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 13.9N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 13.5N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.1N 22.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2025 36.1N 22.2W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2025 36.4N 23.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 35.9N 23.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 35.2N 18.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 35.8N 12.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 37.2N 7.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 38.3N 1.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 38.9N 2.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 40.0N 5.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.5N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2025 32.5N 76.4W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2025 32.8N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 33.1N 77.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 35.0N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261601


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2025 0 16.2N 76.4W 978 61
0000UTC 27.10.2025 12 16.6N 77.0W 975 77
1200UTC 27.10.2025 24 16.8N 77.6W 969 78
0000UTC 28.10.2025 36 17.4N 77.7W 974 65
1200UTC 28.10.2025 48 18.4N 77.4W 988 47
0000UTC 29.10.2025 60 19.7N 75.7W 989 49
1200UTC 29.10.2025 72 22.0N 74.1W 992 44
0000UTC 30.10.2025 84 24.4N 71.7W 990 45
1200UTC 30.10.2025 96 27.4N 69.4W 987 49
0000UTC 31.10.2025 108 31.4N 66.5W 979 61
1200UTC 31.10.2025 120 36.4N 61.0W 970 80
0000UTC 01.11.2025 132 42.6N 54.1W 970 71
1200UTC 01.11.2025 144 46.6N 45.9W 976 48
0000UTC 02.11.2025 156 47.7N 38.4W 972 51
1200UTC 02.11.2025 168 47.8N 27.9W 972 54

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2025 0 13.4N 119.7W 1003 30
0000UTC 27.10.2025 12 13.7N 119.9W 1002 29
1200UTC 27.10.2025 24 14.2N 120.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 28.10.2025 36 14.2N 121.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 28.10.2025 48 13.9N 123.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 29.10.2025 60 13.9N 124.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 29.10.2025 72 13.5N 126.3W 1010 23
0000UTC 30.10.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.1N 22.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2025 12 36.1N 22.2W 1008 39
1200UTC 27.10.2025 24 36.4N 23.7W 1005 39
0000UTC 28.10.2025 36 35.9N 23.2W 1002 37
1200UTC 28.10.2025 48 35.2N 18.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 29.10.2025 60 35.8N 12.9W 1000 36
1200UTC 29.10.2025 72 37.2N 7.7W 1000 35
0000UTC 30.10.2025 84 38.3N 1.7W 1004 37
1200UTC 30.10.2025 96 38.9N 2.3E 1005 30
0000UTC 31.10.2025 108 40.0N 5.9E 1007 29
1200UTC 31.10.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.5N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2025 48 32.5N 76.4W 1004 36
0000UTC 29.10.2025 60 32.8N 76.9W 1004 40
1200UTC 29.10.2025 72 33.1N 77.0W 1002 38
0000UTC 30.10.2025 84 35.0N 75.0W 1001 38
1200UTC 30.10.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261601


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 261446
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Deep convection returned over the low-level center overnight, but
over the last several hours satellite imagery shows the convective
structure has become a little more broken. The low-level center is
likely situated on the southern end of the convective shield due to
southerly wind shear. The latest subjective satellite intensity
estimates were both data-T 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 50 kt. Using
these estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt for
this advisory.

Sonia is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 280/03 kt.
The system seems to be gradually turning towards the west-northwest
towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, with a continued slow
forward motion the next day or so. As the system begins to weaken
and become a more shallow vortex, the system should turn back toward
the west within the low-level wind flow at a sightly faster forward
speed. The latest NHC forecast is slightly near the previous and
lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and Google DeepMind
solutions.

The storm will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, but will
remain over warm sea surface temperatures for another day or so.
Thus, little change in intensity is forecast, with the potential for
some slight strengthening today. Beyond the 24-36 h time period, a
weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear, and
sea surface temperatures cooling along the forecast track. Water
vapor satellite imagery shows abundant dry air to the west of the
system and mid-level RH values drop into the 40 percent range in 2
to 3 days. The combination of dry air and shear should cause the
system to gradually lose convection, and become a remnant low by 60
hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model
simulated IR satellite solutions, and the latest NHC intensity
forecast follows these trends, with the remnant low dissipating by
the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 261446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...SONIA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 119.9W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 119.9 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or
so, before a weakening trend is forecast to begin.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 261446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 260848
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After experiencing a late afternoon diurnal minimum in convection on
Saturday during which the structure of Sonia was rather disorganized
and the intensification of the tropical storm halted, deep
convection has returned over the center overnight, with a large area
of cloud tops colder than -70C. Light to moderate southerly shear
appears to be affecting the storm just a bit, with the low-level
center situated in the southern half of the convective area. The
latest subjective intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and
T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The objective UW-CIMSS numbers have been
running in the 40-45 kt range, and the highest ASCAT vector on a
recent ASCAT pass was 41 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the above data.

Sonia is experiencing about 10-15 kt of southerly vertical wind
shear while over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 27C. The
shear and SSTs should remain about the same for the next 12-24 h,
but southerly shear is forecast to increase further after that time
while SSTs begin to gradually decrease. By 60 hours, shear should
be stronger than 20 kt while SSTs fall below 26C. Melissa will also
reach a drier airmass after 60 h. The NHC forecast will show slight
strengthening over the next 24 h while Sonia remains over lukewarm
SSTs and moderate shear. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected,
and Melissa should lose its convection and become a remnant low by
day 3. The intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance
suite through the first 36 hours of the forecast, but shows a
slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous NHC forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products show the cyclone
losing its convection between 60-72 h, so the NHC forecast will call
for Sonia to become a remnant low by hour 72, and gradually
dissipate thereafter.

Sonia has been moving slightly south of due west (265 degrees) at a
slow forward speed of 4 kt. A weakness in a narrow subtropical
ridge to the north should cause Sonia to turn toward the
west-northwest later today, but still at a very slow forward speed,
because the steering currents overall are weak. By Tuesday, as the
cyclone weakens, a turn back toward the west with an increase in
forward speed is expected as Sonia is steered primarily by the low-
level flow. The latest NHC forecast is a tad slower than the
previous prediction and lies generally between the latest HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind Ensemble
Mean (GDMI).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 13.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 13.5N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.7N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 14.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 14.5N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260847
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...SONIA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 119.5W
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 119.5 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 260847
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 119.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 120.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 119.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 260402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2025 0 16.6N 76.1W 993 46
1200UTC 26.10.2025 12 16.4N 76.2W 992 47
0000UTC 27.10.2025 24 16.6N 76.8W 993 48
1200UTC 27.10.2025 36 16.6N 77.8W 993 51
0000UTC 28.10.2025 48 16.9N 78.0W 992 47
1200UTC 28.10.2025 60 17.5N 77.6W 994 45
0000UTC 29.10.2025 72 17.8N 77.0W 997 41
1200UTC 29.10.2025 84 19.4N 75.7W 996 49
0000UTC 30.10.2025 96 21.4N 75.0W 999 39
1200UTC 30.10.2025 108 23.3N 73.8W 998 42
0000UTC 31.10.2025 120 25.5N 72.4W 995 45
1200UTC 31.10.2025 132 27.5N 70.5W 996 40
0000UTC 01.11.2025 144 30.3N 66.8W 995 43
1200UTC 01.11.2025 156 32.8N 61.7W 992 52
0000UTC 02.11.2025 168 33.9N 56.7W 994 42

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 119.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2025 0 13.4N 119.5W 1004 28
1200UTC 26.10.2025 12 13.3N 120.3W 1003 27
0000UTC 27.10.2025 24 13.4N 120.5W 1003 26
1200UTC 27.10.2025 36 14.1N 121.4W 1002 31
0000UTC 28.10.2025 48 14.4N 122.4W 1003 31
1200UTC 28.10.2025 60 14.4N 123.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 29.10.2025 72 14.8N 124.7W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.10.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 32.5N 77.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2025 60 32.5N 77.2W 1003 38
0000UTC 29.10.2025 72 31.4N 77.6W 1005 38
1200UTC 29.10.2025 84 31.5N 77.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 30.10.2025 96 31.5N 78.1W 1009 29
1200UTC 30.10.2025 108 36.5N 82.4W 1008 20
0000UTC 31.10.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.5N 67.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2025 72 34.5N 67.5W 1004 52
1200UTC 29.10.2025 84 36.6N 61.1W 1006 38
0000UTC 30.10.2025 96 38.4N 51.9W 1003 43
1200UTC 30.10.2025 108 38.6N 42.1W 999 38
0000UTC 31.10.2025 120 39.2N 32.6W 996 36
1200UTC 31.10.2025 132 40.2N 21.8W 995 41
0000UTC 01.11.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260402


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 260402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2025 16.6N 76.1W MODERATE
12UTC 26.10.2025 16.4N 76.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 16.6N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.6N 77.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 16.9N 78.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 17.5N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 17.8N 77.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 19.4N 75.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 21.4N 75.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 23.3N 73.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 25.5N 72.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 27.5N 70.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 30.3N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 32.8N 61.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2025 33.9N 56.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 119.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2025 13.4N 119.5W WEAK
12UTC 26.10.2025 13.3N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 13.4N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 14.1N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 14.4N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 14.4N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 14.8N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 32.5N 77.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2025 32.5N 77.2W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2025 31.4N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 31.5N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 31.5N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 36.5N 82.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.5N 67.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2025 34.5N 67.5W WEAK
12UTC 29.10.2025 36.6N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 38.4N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 38.6N 42.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2025 39.2N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 40.2N 21.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260402


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 260233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia seems to be holding steady this evening. Data from a
microwave satellite overpass showed the circulation was still open
to the west, with a curved band wrapped around the eastern and
southern portions of the storm. Convection has waned during the
past few hours and objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates have remained generally stable. The initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving westward at 4 kt. There is still a large spread
in the model guidance through the forecast period. The forecast
reasoning has not changed. A steadily strengthening system is
expecting to turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The model
forecasts with shallower vortex structures tend to remain on a more
westward trajectory while the deeper cyclones tend to track more
poleward. The primary steering features influencing Sonia are a
subtropical ridge extending to the north of the tropical storm and
an amplifying mid-latitude trough that is expected to erode the
ridge in the coming days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous prediction and lies south of the corrected consensus
aid and north of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Sonia has about a day or so to gradually strengthen before
atmospheric and oceanic conditions begin to significantly inhibit
intensification. After that time, vertical wind shear is expected
to increase, with sea surface temperatures decreasing, particularly
if Sonia takes a more northern path. The model guidance envelope
shifted noticeably lower this cycle, though only minimal changes
were made to the official intensity forecast. The latest prediction
lies near the top of the guidance, close to HAFS-A, peaking in about
36 hours, and then calls for Sonia to become a post-tropical cyclone
by day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 13.5N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 14.2N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 14.7N 122.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0000Z 14.8N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...SONIA SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 119.3W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 119.3 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to continue moving westward for the next several hours. A
slower forward motion with a turn toward the west-northwest or
northwest is expected on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible this weekend, and Sonia could
approach hurricane strength on Sunday. Gradual weakening is
expected by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 260231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0300 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.2N 121.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.7N 122.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 14.8N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 252041
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...SONIA SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND HEADING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 118.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 118.9 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to continue moving westward today. A slower forward motion
with a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible this weekend and Sonia could
approach hurricane strength on Sunday. Gradual weakening is expected
by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 252042
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia appears to have become better organized during the past
several hours. GMI microwave imagery valid near 18Z showed a
better-defined center in 37 GHz imagery. Satellite-based intensity
estimates range from near 45 kt to near 55 kt. ASCAT-C wind data
valid at 1701 UTC only captured a part of the circulation of Sonia
on the edge of the pass swath, but it did not show any winds of
tropical-storm force. Based on all these data, the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt for this advisory.

The aforementioned GMI data helped identify the center of Sonia, so
the initial position and movement of the tropical storm is higher
confidence now. However, there is still unusually large spread in
the track guidance. The models appear to be split over whether Sonia
will begin a short period of intensification in about a day, or not.
The stronger solutions, including the GFS and all of the hurricane
regional models, show Sonia gaining more latitude, while the weaker
ones, including the Google DeepMind and ECMWF, keep the cyclone
moving generally westward to west-northwestward. The NHC track
forecast already split these solutions, and no significant change
has been made for this advisory since there is no obvious reason to
discount either solution at this time.

Likewise, no change of note was made to the official intensity
forecast. Sonia could strengthen slightly over the weekend, since
its structure and organization appear to be improving and there are
no immediate significant inhibiting factors. However, by early next
week the cyclone will move into a drier environment and move toward
an upper-level low that will result in an increase in shear. This
should cause weakening, and all available dynamical guidance still
indicates Sonia will become post-tropical by day 4, regardless of
how strong it gets between now and then. The NHC intensity forecast
is now near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.5N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 13.6N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 13.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 15.0N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 15.1N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 252041
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.6N 119.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.0N 123.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.1N 124.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 75.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.10.2025 16.5N 75.2W MODERATE
00UTC 26.10.2025 16.9N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2025 17.2N 77.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 16.5N 78.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.4N 79.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 16.1N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 15.9N 80.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 16.2N 80.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 17.2N 79.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 18.6N 78.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2025 20.1N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 22.6N 76.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 25.0N 74.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 29.2N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 35.1N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.10.2025 13.6N 117.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.10.2025 13.5N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2025 13.3N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 13.2N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 13.5N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 13.9N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 13.6N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 13.9N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.5N 72.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.10.2025 32.5N 72.9W WEAK
00UTC 29.10.2025 34.8N 67.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 37.4N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251601


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 75.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.10.2025 0 16.5N 75.2W 996 43
0000UTC 26.10.2025 12 16.9N 75.9W 997 39
1200UTC 26.10.2025 24 17.2N 77.3W 998 41
0000UTC 27.10.2025 36 16.5N 78.9W 998 31
1200UTC 27.10.2025 48 16.4N 79.6W 999 32
0000UTC 28.10.2025 60 16.1N 80.3W 998 28
1200UTC 28.10.2025 72 15.9N 80.6W 999 31
0000UTC 29.10.2025 84 16.2N 80.1W 999 36
1200UTC 29.10.2025 96 17.2N 79.4W 995 46
0000UTC 30.10.2025 108 18.6N 78.6W 990 51
1200UTC 30.10.2025 120 20.1N 77.9W 992 42
0000UTC 31.10.2025 132 22.6N 76.9W 995 45
1200UTC 31.10.2025 144 25.0N 74.3W 996 46
0000UTC 01.11.2025 156 29.2N 70.8W 994 43
1200UTC 01.11.2025 168 35.1N 65.8W 986 48

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.10.2025 0 13.6N 117.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 26.10.2025 12 13.5N 119.5W 1007 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 24 13.3N 120.4W 1007 22
0000UTC 27.10.2025 36 13.2N 120.9W 1006 23
1200UTC 27.10.2025 48 13.5N 121.7W 1006 24
0000UTC 28.10.2025 60 13.9N 123.2W 1005 26
1200UTC 28.10.2025 72 13.6N 124.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 29.10.2025 84 13.9N 125.6W 1008 22
1200UTC 29.10.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.5N 72.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2025 72 32.5N 72.9W 1003 42
0000UTC 29.10.2025 84 34.8N 67.4W 1003 43
1200UTC 29.10.2025 96 37.4N 60.8W 1004 36
0000UTC 30.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251601


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251451
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...SONIA CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 118.1W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 118.1 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to continue moving westward today. A slower forward motion
with a turn toward the northwest is expected on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast this
weekend and Sonia could approach hurricane strength on Sunday.
Gradual weakening is expected by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 251451
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia appears to be strengthening this morning. While it has been
difficult to pinpoint Sonia's center, it appears to be well
embedded within the central dense overcast. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and various
objective intensity techniques from UW-CIMSS have also increased
with a mean value near 45 kt, so that is initial intensity for this
advisory.

Given the higher initial intensity, the intensity forecast for
Sonia has also increased a little, and now shows the cyclone could
approach hurricane strength tomorrow. Several models now show Sonia
becoming a hurricane late this weekend. The new NHC intensity
forecast is just below the model consensus, so an additional upward
adjustment could be necessary in the next advisory. Beyond 2 days,
Sonia is still expected to gradually weaken as a result of
increasing shear and drier mid-level air wrapping into its
circulation. Models still indicate that Sonia will lose its deep
convection by day 4, and it will likely degenerate into a trough by
the end of the forecast period.

Sonia has continued moving generally west. No substantial changes to
the official track forecast were made aside from a slight northward
tweak to account for the latest initial position of the tropical
storm. In general, the tropical storm should keep on its current
heading today, then slow and turn northwestward on Sunday. By the
middle of next week, Sonia should turn back westward as it weakens
and becomes steered by low-level flow. The spread in the model
guidance is unusually high, so uncertainty in the track is slightly
higher than normal, but the NHC forecast is still based on a blend
of HCCA and GDM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 13.5N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.6N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 13.7N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 14.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 14.9N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 15.2N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 251450
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
1500 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 117.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.6N 118.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 119.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 123.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250834
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Satellite imagery shows deep convection expanding over the low-level
circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures near -80 C.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
in agreement at 2.5/35 kt, which is supported by the latest UW–CIMSS
objective estimates. Based on the improving satellite presentation
and these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Sonia, with the initial intensity set at 35 kt.

Sonia has a brief window of opportunity to gradually strengthen over
the weekend while it remains over warm waters and within a moist,
low-shear environment. Strengthening should level off by Monday as
southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase. By Tuesday, a
combination of stronger shear, drier mid- to upper-level air, and
cooler sea-surface temperatures should induce a gradual weakening
trend. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports
this scenario, depicting convection diminishing by midweek. As a
result, Sonia is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the
previous one and continues to closely follow the consensus aids.

The initial motion is toward the west, or 275/8 kt, along the
southern side of a subtropical ridge that is expected to persist
through the first half of the weekend. A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated for a brief period late Sunday into early next week
as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to a mid-latitude
trough passing over the northern Pacific. A turn back toward the
west is then expected by Tuesday and into midweek as the ridge
restrengthens to the north. By day 5, Sonia is forecast to become
increasingly influenced by the low-level trade wind flow, which
should steer it southwestward. The latest NHC track forecast remains
close to the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and
Google DeepMind solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 13.3N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 13.4N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.6N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 14.1N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 15.2N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 15.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 14.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SONIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 117.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sonia was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 117.6 West. Sonia is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is expected
to continue moving westward today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and a decrease in forward speed by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected over the weekend, followed by
gradual weakening beginning by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.6W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.6W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.4N 118.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 121.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2025 0 16.1N 75.0W 1000 37
1200UTC 25.10.2025 12 16.5N 75.7W 1000 36
0000UTC 26.10.2025 24 16.9N 76.2W 999 40
1200UTC 26.10.2025 36 17.2N 76.9W 999 41
0000UTC 27.10.2025 48 17.3N 78.8W 1000 36
1200UTC 27.10.2025 60 16.9N 79.0W 1000 34
0000UTC 28.10.2025 72 16.3N 80.1W 999 31
1200UTC 28.10.2025 84 16.0N 80.6W 1000 30
0000UTC 29.10.2025 96 15.8N 80.4W 1001 29
1200UTC 29.10.2025 108 15.7N 79.9W 1001 34
0000UTC 30.10.2025 120 16.6N 79.9W 999 39
1200UTC 30.10.2025 132 17.3N 78.8W 1000 42
0000UTC 31.10.2025 144 19.3N 78.1W 1000 38
1200UTC 31.10.2025 156 19.6N 76.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 01.11.2025 168 22.2N 75.5W 1003 35

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2025 0 13.0N 116.3W 1007 22
1200UTC 25.10.2025 12 13.6N 118.1W 1008 23
0000UTC 26.10.2025 24 13.6N 119.1W 1008 22
1200UTC 26.10.2025 36 13.4N 120.4W 1008 22
0000UTC 27.10.2025 48 13.5N 120.9W 1007 23
1200UTC 27.10.2025 60 13.9N 122.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 28.10.2025 72 12.8N 123.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 28.10.2025 84 13.1N 123.9W 1007 22
0000UTC 29.10.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.5N 33.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2025 0 32.5N 33.7W 1013 27
1200UTC 25.10.2025 12 31.7N 31.9W 1015 25
0000UTC 26.10.2025 24 30.6N 30.5W 1014 27
1200UTC 26.10.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 31.7N 80.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2025 72 31.9N 80.2W 1005 40
1200UTC 28.10.2025 84 33.0N 75.8W 1002 39
0000UTC 29.10.2025 96 34.3N 75.7W 999 40
1200UTC 29.10.2025 108 35.9N 74.7W 995 41
0000UTC 30.10.2025 120 36.6N 73.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.10.2025 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 35.0N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2025 96 35.6N 66.8W 1003 42
1200UTC 29.10.2025 108 37.5N 63.5W 1006 34
0000UTC 30.10.2025 120 37.8N 63.5W 1009 32
1200UTC 30.10.2025 132 37.6N 63.7W 1013 27
0000UTC 31.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250402


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 250402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2025 16.1N 75.0W MODERATE
12UTC 25.10.2025 16.5N 75.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2025 16.9N 76.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2025 17.2N 76.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 17.3N 78.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.9N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 16.3N 80.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 16.0N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 15.8N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 15.7N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 16.6N 79.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 17.3N 78.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 19.3N 78.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 19.6N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 22.2N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2025 13.0N 116.3W WEAK
12UTC 25.10.2025 13.6N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2025 13.6N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2025 13.4N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 13.5N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 13.9N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 12.8N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 13.1N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.5N 33.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2025 32.5N 33.7W WEAK
12UTC 25.10.2025 31.7N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2025 30.6N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 31.7N 80.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2025 31.9N 80.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2025 33.0N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 34.3N 75.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 35.9N 74.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 36.6N 73.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 35.0N 67.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2025 35.6N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 37.5N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 37.8N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 37.6N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250402


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250235
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The depression has changed little over the past several hours.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown deep convection
periodically forming near the center, with a broad, loose band
wrapping around the northern side of the circulation. Subjective
Dvorak estimates remain at T2.0 and the initial intensity is held at
30 kt for this advisory.

During the next couple of days, environmental and oceanic conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual strengthening. The sea
surface temperatures should be between 27-26 deg C, with
light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level
humdities. Around 48 to 60 h, global models suggest the wind shear
should gradually increase, inducing a gradual weakening trend. By
the end of the forecast period, cooling ocean waters and
increasingly dry air are expected reduce and dissipate the deep,
organized convection. GFS and ECMWF are suggesting this may occur
sooner, and the official forecast now shows the depression becoming
a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.

The estimated motion of the depression is 270 degrees at 7 kt. A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should be the main
steering feature for the next 5 days, which will initially continue
its westward heading with a decreasing forward speed. By the end of
the weekend, an amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough
should slightly weaken the ridge, causing the system to bend
west-northwestward. As the vortex becomes more shallow by the end
of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn back
westward in the low-level flow. The latest official forecast has
been nudged to the north, and lies between the HCCA and the previous
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 116.6W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 116.6
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A west to west-northwest motion with some reduction in forward speed
is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is expected to
become a tropical storm on Saturday. A weakening trend is expected
to commence by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
0300 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 242035
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Over the past few days, the area of low pressure that the National
Hurricane Center has been monitoring, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, has
gradually become better organized and has now acquired a
well-defined circulation center. Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS microwave
passes revealed developing curved bands (-70C cloud tops) to the
north and south of the depression's center. The Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0 (30 kt), and a fortuitous
METOP-B scatterometer overpass indicates maximum sustained winds of
25-30 kt. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Although the depression is expected to remain over warm SSTs, a
marginally favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment and
moderate west-southwesterly shear should hamper significant
development. Accordingly, gradual strengthening is expected during
the next 72 hours. After that time, the depression is expected to
traverse progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and
commence a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA Corrected Consensus
intensity aids and shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 5
days.

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or
270/11 kt. A west-to-east-oriented subtropical ridge located to
the north of the depression should steer the cyclone in a generally
westward or west-northwestward heading during the next 5 days. By
Saturday, however, the depression is forecast to slow in forward
speed in response to a slight weakening of the ridge while an
amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough approaches the
southwest U.S. coast/Baja California offshore waters. Over the
remaining portion of the period, the depression is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low while continuing generally westward in
the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast lies
between the better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 13.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 13.3N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 15.4N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 15.2N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 242035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 116.0W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 116.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h). A west or west-northwest motion with some reduction in
forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is expected to
become a tropical storm by Saturday. A weakening trend is expected
to commence by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 242035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.3N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 15.2N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=