Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NEOGURI-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290000 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 42N 173E
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 037
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 32.3N 158.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 158.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 34.5N 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 31.9N 157.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 157.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 33.5N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 262100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 034 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 034 CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 32.2N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 33.9N 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 36.9N 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 40.8N 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 155.1E.
26SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445
NM NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT REFERENCE TO 26W.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 33.2N 156.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 32.0N 153.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 32.8N 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8N 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 32.9N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 33.1N 157.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 32.4N 155.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 31.8N 153.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 31.8N 157.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 32.2N 156.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 31.8N 155.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 30.9N 155.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 31.9N 155.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 30.4N 155.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 32.4N 156.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 30.1N 154.5E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.5N 157.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 31.4N 153.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 31.7N 154.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 35.0N 160.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 40.6N 168.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 975 HPA
AT 30.1N 154.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 32.5N 157.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 30.1N 154.2E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 32.5N 157.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 251800UTC 31.9N 154.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 261800UTC 31.9N 153.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 271800UTC 34.1N 159.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 281800UTC 40.6N 168.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 154.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 30.2N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 32.4N 157.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 251800UTC 31.9N 154.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 261800UTC 31.9N 153.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 271800UTC 34.1N 159.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 281800UTC 40.6N 168.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 975 HPA
AT 30.2N 154.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.4N 157.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.9N 154.0E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 31.9N 153.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 34.1N 159.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 40.6N 168.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 975 HPA
AT 30.3N 153.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 32.1N 156.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 30.3N 153.7E FAIR
MOVE SSE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 32.1N 156.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 251200UTC 32.2N 154.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 261200UTC 31.6N 152.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 271200UTC 32.7N 156.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 281200UTC 37.5N 163.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 153.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE
OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 30.4N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE SSE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 31.8N 156.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 251200UTC 32.2N 154.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 261200UTC 31.6N 152.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 271200UTC 32.7N 156.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 281200UTC 37.5N 163.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 975 HPA
AT 30.4N 153.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 31.8N 156.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 32.2N 154.6E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 31.6N 152.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 32.7N 156.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 37.5N 163.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 970 HPA
AT 30.6N 153.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 31.6N 156.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 30.6N 153.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 31.6N 156.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 250600UTC 32.2N 155.5E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 260600UTC 31.8N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 270600UTC 33.1N 155.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 280600UTC 39.2N 164.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 153.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 970 HPA
AT 30.9N 153.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 31.4N 155.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 32.2N 155.5E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 31.8N 152.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 33.1N 155.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 39.2N 164.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 30.9N 153.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 31.4N 155.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 250600UTC 32.2N 155.5E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260600UTC 31.8N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 270600UTC 33.1N 155.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 280600UTC 39.2N 164.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 970 HPA
AT 30.6N 153.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 31.3N 155.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 30.6N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 31.3N 155.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 250000UTC 32.5N 155.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 260000UTC 31.6N 151.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 270000UTC 32.2N 153.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 280000UTC 36.3N 160.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 153.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 30.4N 153.2E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 31.1N 154.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 250000UTC 32.5N 155.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260000UTC 31.6N 151.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 270000UTC 32.2N 153.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 280000UTC 36.3N 160.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 970 HPA
AT 30.4N 153.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 31.1N 154.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.5N 155.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 31.6N 151.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 32.2N 153.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 36.3N 160.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 970 HPA
AT 30.4N 153.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 30.9N 154.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 30.4N 153.0E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 30.9N 154.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 241800UTC 32.6N 156.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 251800UTC 31.5N 152.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 261800UTC 31.7N 151.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 271800UTC 34.9N 157.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 152.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND
WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 30.5N 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 30.6N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.9N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 31.6N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 32.8N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.6N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 35.2N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 39.6N 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 152.9E.
22SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM
NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 30.5N 152.8E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 30.7N 153.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 241800UTC 32.6N 156.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 251800UTC 31.5N 152.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 261800UTC 31.7N 151.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 271800UTC 34.9N 157.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 970 HPA
AT 30.5N 152.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 30.7N 153.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.6N 156.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.5N 152.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 31.7N 151.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 34.9N 157.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 30.5N 152.6E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 30.2N 153.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 241200UTC 31.5N 155.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 251200UTC 31.8N 153.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 261200UTC 31.7N 151.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 271200UTC 33.8N 156.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 960 HPA
AT 30.5N 152.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 30.2N 153.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 152.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 30.5N 152.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 30.2N 153.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 241200UTC 31.5N 155.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 251200UTC 31.8N 153.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 261200UTC 31.7N 151.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 271200UTC 33.8N 156.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 960 HPA
AT 30.5N 152.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 30.2N 153.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 31.5N 155.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 31.8N 153.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 31.7N 151.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 33.8N 156.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 955 HPA
AT 30.4N 152.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 30.4N 153.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 30.4N 152.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 30.4N 153.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 240600UTC 30.9N 154.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 250600UTC 32.0N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 260600UTC 31.7N 151.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 270600UTC 33.1N 154.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 151.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 151.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.5N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 30.6N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.8N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 31.2N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.6N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.9N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 35.6N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 152.0E. 22SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND
230900Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 151.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 30.2N 151.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 30.4N 153.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 240600UTC 30.9N 154.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 250600UTC 32.0N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 260600UTC 31.7N 151.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 270600UTC 33.1N 154.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 955 HPA
AT 30.2N 151.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.4N 153.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 30.9N 154.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 32.0N 154.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 31.7N 151.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 33.1N 154.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 30.0N 151.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 30.5N 152.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 30.0N 151.3E GOOD
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 30.5N 152.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 240000UTC 30.9N 153.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 250000UTC 32.5N 154.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 260000UTC 32.8N 151.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 270000UTC 34.2N 153.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 151.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 29.7N 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.2N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 29.8N 151.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 30.5N 152.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240000UTC 30.9N 153.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 250000UTC 32.5N 154.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 260000UTC 32.8N 151.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 270000UTC 34.2N 153.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 29.8N 151.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 30.5N 152.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 30.9N 153.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.5N 154.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 32.8N 151.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 34.2N 153.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 29.6N 150.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 30.5N 152.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 29.6N 150.9E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 30.5N 152.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 231800UTC 30.6N 153.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 241800UTC 31.4N 153.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 251800UTC 31.7N 152.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 261800UTC 33.7N 151.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 150.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 29.3N 150.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 30.4N 152.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 30.6N 153.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 31.4N 153.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.7N 152.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 33.7N 151.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 29.3N 150.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 30.4N 152.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 231800UTC 30.6N 153.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 241800UTC 31.4N 153.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 251800UTC 31.7N 152.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 261800UTC 33.7N 151.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 28.9N 151.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 30.5N 152.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 28.9N 151.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 30.5N 152.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 231200UTC 31.0N 153.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 241200UTC 32.6N 155.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 251200UTC 33.2N 153.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 261200UTC 34.4N 153.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 151.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 28.5N 151.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 30.5N 152.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 31.0N 153.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 32.6N 155.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 33.2N 153.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 34.4N 153.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 28.5N 151.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 30.5N 152.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 231200UTC 31.0N 153.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 241200UTC 32.6N 155.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 251200UTC 33.2N 153.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 261200UTC 34.4N 153.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 920 HPA
AT 28.1N 151.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 29.3N 150.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 30.0N 151.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 28.1N 151.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 212100UTC 29.3N 150.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 220900UTC 30.0N 151.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 230600UTC 30.5N 152.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 240600UTC 31.4N 153.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 250600UTC 33.2N 155.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 260600UTC 35.4N 153.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 27.7N 151.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 151.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.9N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 29.7N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.3N 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 30.7N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 31.3N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.7N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 35.0N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 151.6E. 21SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 936 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
220900Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 151.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 27.8N 151.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 211800UTC 29.1N 150.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 220600UTC 29.9N 151.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 230600UTC 30.5N 152.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 240600UTC 31.4N 153.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 250600UTC 33.2N 155.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 260600UTC 35.4N 153.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 920 HPA
AT 27.8N 151.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 29.1N 150.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 29.9N 151.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.5N 152.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 31.4N 153.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.2N 155.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 35.4N 153.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 920 HPA
AT 27.6N 152.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 28.8N 151.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 29.8N 150.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 27.6N 152.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 211500UTC 28.8N 151.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 220300UTC 29.8N 150.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 230000UTC 30.3N 151.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 240000UTC 30.9N 152.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 250000UTC 31.5N 152.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 260000UTC 32.1N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 27.3N, 152.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SAME
WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 27.2N 152.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 152.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.4N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.4N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.2N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.4N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.9N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.1N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 35.5N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 152.4E.
21SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS
936 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 27.3N 152.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 211200UTC 28.3N 151.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 220000UTC 29.5N 150.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 230000UTC 30.3N 151.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 240000UTC 30.9N 152.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 250000UTC 31.5N 152.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 260000UTC 32.1N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 920 HPA
AT 27.3N 152.7E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 28.3N 151.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 29.5N 150.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 30.3N 151.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 30.9N 152.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 31.5N 152.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 32.1N 152.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 27.1N 153.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 28.0N 151.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 29.5N 150.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 27.1N 153.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 210900UTC 28.0N 151.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 212100UTC 29.5N 150.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 221800UTC 30.3N 151.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 231800UTC 30.9N 152.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 241800UTC 31.4N 152.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 251800UTC 32.1N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 26.8N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.0N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 29.2N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 30.1N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.7N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 31.4N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 33.4N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 36.1N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 153.4E.
20SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 153.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SAME
WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 935 HPA
AT 26.8N 153.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 27.6N 151.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 28.8N 150.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 30.3N 151.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 30.9N 152.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 31.4N 152.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 32.1N 152.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 26.8N 153.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 210600UTC 27.6N 151.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 211800UTC 28.8N 150.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 221800UTC 30.3N 151.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 231800UTC 30.9N 152.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 241800UTC 31.4N 152.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 251800UTC 32.1N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 940 HPA
AT 26.5N 154.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 27.4N 152.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 28.6N 150.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 26.5N 154.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 210300UTC 27.4N 152.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 211500UTC 28.6N 150.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 221200UTC 30.1N 150.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 231200UTC 30.8N 151.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 241200UTC 31.2N 152.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 251200UTC 31.9N 152.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.2N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.3N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.5N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.6N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 32.0N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 33.0N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.7N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 154.5E.
20SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
201200Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 26.3N, 155.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SAME
WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 26.3N 155.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 210000UTC 27.0N 152.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 211200UTC 28.3N 151.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 221200UTC 30.1N 150.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 231200UTC 30.8N 151.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 241200UTC 31.2N 152.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 251200UTC 31.9N 152.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 950 HPA
AT 26.3N 155.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 27.0N 152.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 28.3N 151.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 30.1N 150.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 30.8N 151.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 31.2N 152.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 31.9N 152.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 955 HPA
AT 26.0N 155.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 26.6N 153.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 27.7N 151.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 26.0N 155.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 202100UTC 26.6N 153.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 210900UTC 27.7N 151.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 220600UTC 30.1N 150.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 230600UTC 30.7N 151.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 240600UTC 31.3N 152.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 250600UTC 32.0N 151.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 25.9N, 156.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER
THE SAME WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 25.9N 156.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 201800UTC 26.4N 153.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 210600UTC 27.5N 151.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 220600UTC 30.1N 150.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 230600UTC 30.7N 151.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 240600UTC 31.3N 152.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 250600UTC 32.0N 151.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 965 HPA
AT 25.9N 156.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 26.4N 153.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 27.5N 151.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 30.1N 150.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.7N 151.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 31.3N 152.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 32.0N 151.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 975 HPA
AT 25.7N 156.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 26.0N 154.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 27.1N 152.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 25.7N 156.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 201500UTC 26.0N 154.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 210300UTC 27.1N 152.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 220000UTC 29.3N 150.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 230000UTC 30.5N 151.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 240000UTC 31.0N 153.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 250000UTC 33.1N 154.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 156.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER
THE SAME WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 25.6N 156.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 201200UTC 25.8N 155.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 210000UTC 26.8N 152.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 220000UTC 29.3N 150.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 230000UTC 30.5N 151.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 240000UTC 31.0N 153.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 250000UTC 33.1N 154.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 975 HPA
AT 25.6N 156.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 25.8N 155.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 26.8N 152.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 29.3N 150.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 30.5N 151.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 31.0N 153.2E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 33.1N 154.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 980 HPA
AT 25.5N 157.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 25.8N 155.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 26.6N 153.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 25.5N 157.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 200900UTC 25.8N 155.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 202100UTC 26.6N 153.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 211800UTC 28.6N 150.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 221800UTC 29.8N 150.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 231800UTC 30.4N 152.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 241800UTC 30.6N 153.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 192113
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Typhoon Neoguri (25W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP252025
713 AM ChST Sat Sep 20 2025

...NEOGURI UPGRADED TO TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Neoguri is upgraded to a Typhoon. It is now north of 25N and has
exited the NWS Guam Area of Responsibility.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...25.3N 157.5E

About 230 miles east-northeast of Minamitorishima
About 715 miles northwest of Wake
About 1160 miles northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Neoguri was
located near Latitude 25.3 degrees North and Longitude
157.5 degrees East. Neoguri is moving west-northwest at 12 mph.
It is expected to maintain this general course and speed through
Sunday, turning more northwest Sunday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph. Neoguri is
forecast to continue to intensify for the next couple of days

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
25 miles east of the center and up to 5 miles west. Tropical storm
force winds extend outward from the center up to 120 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Typhoon Neoguri

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 25.1N 158.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 158.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.8N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.5N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 27.6N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.8N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.1N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 31.2N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 33.3N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 157.5E.
19SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 591 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 986 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MITAG) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 158.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE
SAME WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 25.0N 158.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 200600UTC 25.5N 155.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 201800UTC 26.2N 154.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 211800UTC 28.6N 150.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 221800UTC 29.8N 150.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 231800UTC 30.4N 152.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 241800UTC 30.6N 153.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2519 NEOGURI (2519) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 985
HPA
AT 25.0N 158.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 25.5N 155.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 26.2N 154.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 28.6N 150.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 29.8N 150.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 30.4N 152.2E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 30.6N 153.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 990 HPA
AT 24.8N 158.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 25.5N 156.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 26.1N 154.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 24.8N 158.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 200300UTC 25.5N 156.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 201500UTC 26.1N 154.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 211200UTC 28.0N 151.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 221200UTC 29.8N 150.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 231200UTC 30.2N 151.3E 175NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 241200UTC 30.3N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 191505
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Neoguri (25W) Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP252025
105 AM ChST Sat Sep 20 2025

...TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF WAKE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...24.9N 158.5E

About 285 miles east of Minamitorishima
About 650 miles northwest of Wake
About 1190 miles northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...70 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri
was located near Latitude 24.9 degrees North and Longitude
158.5 degrees East. Neoguri is moving west-northwest at 15 mph.
It is expected to maintain this general course with a decrease in
forward speed through Sunday. Neoguri is expected to pass north
of Minami Tori Shima this weekend, and then turn northward.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph. Neoguri is
forecast to intensify through Sunday and could become a typhoon
later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
115 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

M. Aydlett


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 24.7N, 159.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 24.7N 159.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 200000UTC 25.4N 157.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 201200UTC 25.9N 155.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 211200UTC 28.0N 151.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 221200UTC 29.8N 150.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 231200UTC 30.2N 151.3E 175NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 241200UTC 30.3N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 992 HPA
AT 24.7N 159.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 25.4N 157.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 25.9N 155.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 28.0N 151.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 29.8N 150.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 30.2N 151.3E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 30.3N 152.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 996 HPA
AT 24.4N 159.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 25.3N 157.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 25.8N 155.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 24.4N 159.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 192100UTC 25.3N 157.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 200900UTC 25.8N 155.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 210600UTC 26.9N 151.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 220600UTC 29.1N 150.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 230600UTC 30.7N 151.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 240600UTC 31.3N 152.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 190917
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252025
717 PM CHST FRI SEP 19 2025

...TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM WAKE ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 159.8E

ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF MINAMITORISHIMA
ABOUT 560 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE
ABOUT 1230 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
159.8 DEGREES EAST. NEOGURI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. NEOGURI IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY AND BECOME A TYPHOON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
115 MILES TO THE EAST AND UP TO 80 MILES TO THE WEST.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

DECOU=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 160.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 160.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.8N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 24.1N, 160.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 24.1N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 191800UTC 25.1N 157.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 200600UTC 25.7N 155.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 210600UTC 26.9N 151.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 220600UTC 29.1N 150.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 230600UTC 30.7N 151.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 240600UTC 31.3N 152.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 996 HPA
AT 24.1N 160.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 25.1N 157.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 25.7N 155.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 26.9N 151.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 29.1N 150.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.7N 151.2E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 31.3N 152.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 23.8N 160.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 191500UTC 24.9N 158.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 200300UTC 25.6N 156.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 210000UTC 26.7N 152.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 220000UTC 29.2N 149.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 230000UTC 31.0N 151.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 240000UTC 31.9N 153.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 190300
WARNING 190300.
WARNING VALID 200300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 996 HPA
AT 23.8N 160.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 24.9N 158.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 25.6N 156.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 190329
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252025
129 PM CHST FRI SEP 19 2025

...TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM WAKE ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 160.9E

ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF MINAMITORISHIMA
ABOUT 485 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE
ABOUT 1275 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
160.9 DEGREES EAST. NEOGURI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. NEOGURI IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AND A TYPHOON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
120 MILES TO THE EAST AND UP TO 10 MILES TO THE WEST.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM CHST.

$$

DOLL=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 161.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH INCREASED VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.4N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.1N 157.1E
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 23.7N 161.2E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 191200UTC 24.7N 158.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 200000UTC 25.4N 156.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 210000UTC 26.7N 152.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 220000UTC 29.2N 149.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 230000UTC 31.0N 151.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 240000UTC 31.9N 153.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 998 HPA
AT 23.7N 161.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 24.7N 158.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 25.4N 156.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 26.7N 152.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 29.2N 149.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 31.0N 151.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 31.9N 153.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 998 HPA
AT 23.5N 161.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 24.4N 159.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 25.3N 157.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 23.5N 161.9E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 190900UTC 24.4N 159.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 192100UTC 25.3N 157.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 201800UTC 26.3N 153.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 211800UTC 28.5N 150.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 221800UTC 30.7N 150.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 231800UTC 31.2N 152.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 182108
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Neoguri (25W) Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP252025
708 AM ChST Fri Sep 19 2025

...NEOGURI UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Neoguri (25W) is now a tropical storm.

Forecast track/intensity graphics are available from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center web page at
www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2525.gif

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...23.6N 161.8E

About 430 miles northwest of Wake
About 1310 miles northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was
located near Latitude 23.6 degrees North and Longitude 161.8 degrees
East. Neoguri is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course and speed through Saturday as it makes
its way beyond 25N and out of the Guam Area of Responsibility.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. Neoguri is
forecast to intensify through tonight possibly becoming a typhoon
Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles to the east and up to 0 miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Aydlett


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.0N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.7N 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 162.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCREASED
VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
INCREASED VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 23.5N 162.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 190600UTC 24.3N 160.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 191800UTC 25.1N 157.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 201800UTC 26.3N 153.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 211800UTC 28.5N 150.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 221800UTC 30.7N 150.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 231800UTC 31.2N 152.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) 998 HPA
AT 23.5N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 24.3N 160.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 25.1N 157.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 26.3N 153.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 28.5N 150.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 30.7N 150.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 31.2N 152.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 181852
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Neoguri (25W) Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP252025
452 AM ChST Fri Sep 19 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W FORMS NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Depression 25W (Neoguri) forms northwest of Wake Island.

Up to date forecast track/intensity graphics are available from
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at
www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2525.gif

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...23.1N 162.5E

About 375 miles northwest of Wake
About 1335 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west-southwest...255 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Neoguri was located near Latitude 23.1 degrees North and
Longitude 162.5 degrees East. Neoguri is moving west-southwest at
13 mph. It is expected to turn west-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. Neoguri is forecast to
strengthen, likely becoming a tropical storm today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Aydlett/Aydlett


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 181500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 23.0N 162.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 162.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.5N 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.1N 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.8N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.5N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.4N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.1N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 30.0N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 162.5E.
18SEP25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1417 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MITAG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (RAGASA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180200).//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 23.5N 162.9E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 190300UTC 24.2N 160.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 191500UTC 24.8N 158.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201200UTC 25.6N 154.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 211200UTC 27.9N 150.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 221200UTC 31.0N 150.4E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 231200UTC 31.7N 152.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 23.4N, 164.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NEOGURI) STATUS. TS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 23.6N, 163.5E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2519 NEOGURI (2519) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1004 HPA
AT 23.6N 163.5E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 24.0N 161.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 24.7N 158.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 25.6N 154.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 27.9N 150.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 31.0N 150.4E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 31.7N 152.2E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 23.6N 163.5E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 190000UTC 24.0N 161.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 191200UTC 24.7N 158.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 25.6N 154.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211200UTC 27.9N 150.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 221200UTC 31.0N 150.4E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 231200UTC 31.7N 152.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =