Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IVONE-25 Off-shore from 08 Mar 2025 06:00 UTC to 11 Mar 2025 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IVONE-25

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

11/03 18:30 WTIO30FMEE111821

11/03 18:30 WTIO31FMEE111821

11/03 18:13 WTIO20FMEE111810

11/03 12:37 WTIO30FMEE111228

11/03 12:37 WTIO31FMEE111227

11/03 12:09 WTIO20FMEE111208

11/03 07:29 WTIO30FMEE110719

11/03 07:29 WTIO31FMEE110719

11/03 06:07 WTIO20FMEE110605

11/03 01:18 WTIO30FMEE110031

11/03 01:18 WTIO31FMEE110031

11/03 00:06 WTIO20FMEE110004

10/03 19:24 WTIO30FMEE101849

10/03 19:24 WTIO31FMEE101849

10/03 18:15 WTIO20FMEE101814

10/03 13:35 WTIO30FMEE101334

10/03 13:35 WTIO31FMEE101334

10/03 12:34 WTIO20FMEE101233

10/03 07:49 WTIO30FMEE100729

10/03 07:49 WTIO31FMEE100729

10/03 06:37 WTIO20FMEE100636

10/03 01:06 WTIO30FMEE100104

10/03 01:06 WTIO31FMEE100104

10/03 00:20 WTIO20FMEE100019

09/03 19:51 WTIO30FMEE091935

09/03 19:51 WTIO31FMEE091935

09/03 18:07 WTIO20FMEE091805

09/03 12:19 WTIO20FMEE091216

09/03 07:55 WTXS51PGTW090900

09/03 06:20 WTIO20FMEE090618

09/03 01:13 WTIO20FMEE090112CCA

09/03 00:26 WTIO30FMEE090024

09/03 00:26 WTIO31FMEE090024

09/03 00:01 WTIO20FMEE082359

08/03 18:50 WTIO30FMEE081849

08/03 18:50 WTIO31FMEE081849

08/03 18:07 WTIO20FMEE081804

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20242025
1.A REMNANT LOW 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 76.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 815 SW: 740 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 405 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 470 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 435 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IVONE HAS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY A HIGHLY
SHEARED PATTERN, LINKED TO THE WEST-NORTH-WEST CONSTRAINT ESTIMATED
AT 15/20KT BY CIMSS, WHICH IS OPPOSING THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT HEAD-ON,
AS SHOWN BY THE SHEAR ARC IN THE SATELLITE IMAGE ANIMATION. THE LLC
IS IN FACT A LONG WAY FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHOSE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 12Z.
THE 1532Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B SWATH STILL SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY OF THE MEAN WIND BRINGS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 45KT.

FEW CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. IVONE CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. IVONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MAKING A DEFINITIVE TURN TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES
AT THE END OF THE WEEK FROM THURSDAY, PUSHED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

REGARDING THE INTENSIVE FORECAST IVONE IS SET TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CONSTRAINT BRINGING CONTINUOUS DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD THUS BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE SYSTEM FILLING IN, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WIND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
MAINLY DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/13/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 76.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 815 SO: 740 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 510 SO: 425 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SO: 405 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 220 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 470 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 435 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 470 SO: 400 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, IVONE PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE
CONFIGURATION FORTEMENT CISAILLEE LIEE A LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR
OUEST-NORD-OUEST ESTIME A 15/20KT PAR LE CIMSS, VENANT S'OPPOSER
FRONTALEMENT AU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, COMME LE MONTRE L'ARC DE
CISAILLEMENT SUR L'ANIMATION DES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES. LE CENTRE DE
BASSESS COUCHES EST DE FAIT TRES ELOIGNE DU CLUSTER CONVECTIF
PRINCIPAL, SITUA AU SUD-EST, DONT LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
S'EST CONSIDERABLEMENT RECHAUFFEE DEPUIS 12Z. LA PASSE PARTIELLE DE
L'ASCAT-B DE 1532Z PRESENTE ENCORE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE DU VENT MOYEN DEBIAISE PORTE L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME A 45KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. IVONE RESTE GUIDE
PAR L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE CALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME.
IVONE POURSUIT AINSI SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
MERCREDI, AVANT D'AMORCER UN VIRAGE DEFINITIF VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE A PARTIR DE JEUDI, EXPULSEE ENTRE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET UN THALWEG DES MOYENNE LATITUDE ARRIVANT PAR
LE SUD-OUEST.

CONCERNANT LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE IVONE DEVRAIT LOGIQUEMENT
S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LIE A
LA PERSISTANCE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST APPORTANT
CONTINUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE. LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE DEVRAIT AINSI ETRE RELEGUEE ASSEZ LOIN DANS LE
SECTEUR SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. POUR AUTANT, MALGRE LE COMBLEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CELUI-CI CONTINUERA DE GENERER DU COUP DE VENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT ESSENTIELLEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111810
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 13 (IVONE) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 76.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 530 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,
FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 275 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 440 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE SECURITE SHIPPING BULLETIN
FOR METAREA VIII(S) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES OF
MAURITIUS (FQIO25 FIMP).=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 78.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 750 SW: 750 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 455 SW: 530 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 240 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 240 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IVONE
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ANALYZED AT 20KT BY
CIMSS. THE 1056Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS CONVECTION WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER, WITH LESS MARKED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WITH NO
DATA AVAILABLE, IVONE IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, BUT
WITH WINDS DOWN TO 35KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, IVONE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARDS UNTIL TOMORROW. IVONE SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHWARDS
WITHIN 48 HOURS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE AND MOVING AWAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE IS SET TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH A DETERIORATING STRUCTURE. IN
ADDITION, WESTERLY SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR SHOULD ACCENTUATE
THE SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT COULD STILL
MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE
TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111227
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 78.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 750 SO: 750 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SO: 335 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 455 SO: 530 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 270 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 0

36H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SO: 240 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SO: 240 NO: 0

60H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A
IVONE S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS ELLE CONTINUE DE S'ELOIGNER DU CENTRE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST ANALYSE A 20KT
PAR LE CIMSS. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 1056Z MET BIEN EN EVIDENCE
UNE CONVECTION BIEN ELOIGNEE DU CENTRE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES MOINS MARQUEE. SANS AUCUNE DONNEE DISPONIBLE, IVONE EST
MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE, MAIS AVEC DES VENTS
EN BAISSE A 35KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME, IVONE POURSUIT SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN. PUIS, IVONE DEVRAIT AMORCER
UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD D'ICI 48H EN CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE POUR
S'ELOIGNER VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, IVONE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES MAIS
AVEC UNE STRUCTURE QUI SE DETERIORE. DE PLUS, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT ACCENTUER LE LENT COMBLEMENT
D'IVONE AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS. IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE
DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 78.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 405 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110719
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 79.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 750 SW: 750 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 600 SW: 480 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 215 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 595 SW: 390 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 465 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 390 SW: 195 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 480 SW: 315 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IVONE
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ANALYZED AT 20KT BY
CIMSS. THE 0315Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE EXCLUSIVELY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH MAX WINDS OF 40KT. THE BEST TRACK
WILL BE MODIFIED IN THIS DIRECTION AT 12Z. IVONE IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, IVONE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARDS UNTIL TOMORROW. IVONE SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHWARDS
WITHIN 48 HOURS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE AND MOVING AWAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT HOURS. BEYOND THIS, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ITS
SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110719
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 79.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 750 SO: 750 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SO: 335 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 600 SO: 480 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 215 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 595 SO: 390 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SO: 465 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 390 SO: 195 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 480 SO: 315 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A
IVONE S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS ELLE CONTINUE DE S'ELOIGNER DU CENTRE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST ANALYSE A 20KT
PAR LE CIMSS. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0315Z MONTRE QUE LES VENTS FORTS SONT
EXCLUSIVEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE 40KT. LA
BEST TRACK SERA MODIFIEE DANS CE SENS A 12Z. IVONE EST DONC MAINTENU
AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME, IVONE POURSUIT SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN. PUIS, IVONE DEVRAIT AMORCER
UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD D'ICI 48H EN CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE POUR
S'ELOIGNER VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, IVONE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. AU
DELA LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT
ALORS CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS
JOURS. IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 79.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 405 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 80.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 750 SW: 715 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 380 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 650 SW: 595 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 640 SW: 530 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 510 SW: 455 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 455 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IVONE'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
STRONG, WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED CLOUD CONFIGURATION, WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER FAR
REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE RATHER OLD ASCAT IMAGE OF 1644Z
STILL MEASURED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ALMOST 50 KT IN THE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, BUT DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE HAS SINCE
DIMINISHED. THE T-NUMBER IS ESTIMATED AT 3.0 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40
KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK: WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, IVONE WILL BE HEADING WEST UNTIL
MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, SKIRTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH-WEST, BEFORE
PLUNGING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT HOURS. BEYOND THIS, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ITS
SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 80.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 750 SO: 715 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SO: 380 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 650 SO: 595 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SO: 270 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 640 SO: 530 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 55

36H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 510 SO: 455 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 455 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITA CONVECTIVE D'IVONE EST
RESTEE FORTE AVEC DES SOMMETS DE NUAGES TRES FROIDS. LE SYSTEME EST
TOUTEFOIS DANS UNE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE PLUS EN PLUS
CISAILLE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ELOIGNE DE LA CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE. L'IMAGE ASCAT ASSEZ ANCIENNE DE 1644Z MESURAIT ENCORE DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX DE PRES DE 50 KT DANS LA CONVECTION DANS LE CADRAN
SUD-EST MAIS L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK A DIMINUE DEPUIS. LE
NOMBRE T EST ESTIME A 3.0 AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 40 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : AVEC
L'ARRIVEE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, IVONE AMORCE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN
CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, IVONE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. AU
DELA LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT
ALORS CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS
JOURS. IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110004
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 80.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
205 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 385 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 405 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 320 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
20.5 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 345 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 81.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 685 SW: 435 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 435 SW: 285 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SW: 530 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 595 SW: 455 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 490 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 315 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 32.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 490 SW: 215 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IN IVONE'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEAR CONFIGURATION, WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AWAY FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ESTIMATED AT 25KT IN THE 250-450 HPA LAYER (USING THE HAFS-A
FINE-MESH MODEL). THE F-17 MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE EFFECT
OF THE SHEAR. THE PARTIAL ASCAT FROM 1552Z DOES NOT ALLOW US TO
MEASURE THE WINDS AT THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. BUT DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES STILL SUGGEST STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN A
SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD FAVOR A CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL
MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
PLUNGING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT 12/18H. BEYOND THIS, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 81.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 685 SO: 435 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 435 SO: 285 NO: 120

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SO: 530 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 595 SO: 455 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 65

36H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 535 SO: 380 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 175 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 490 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 315 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 32.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 490 SO: 215 NO: 165

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES SUR L'ACTIVITA
CONVECTIVE D'IVONE. LE SYSTEME RESTE DANS UNE CONFIGURATION EN
CISAILLEMENT AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ELOIGNE DE LA
CONVECTION PRINCIPALE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT PERSISTANT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ESTIME A 25KT SUR LA COUCHE 250-450 HPA (SELON LE
MODELE A MAILLE FINE HAFS-A). L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F-17 MET CLAIREMENT
EN EVIDENCE L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. L'ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 1552Z NE
PERMET PAS DE MESURE LES VENTS AU COEUR DU SYSTEME. MAIS LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DVORAK SUGGERENT ENCORE DES VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE
EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTOURNANT
LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE
SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, IVONE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. AU DELA LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT ALORS
CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.
IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
48H DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 81.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 235 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 235 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 370 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101334
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 675 SW: 535 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 545 SW: 455 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 100

24H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 575 SW: 510 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 415 SW: 345 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 425 SW: 325 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 185 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IN IVONE'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, IT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE ANIMATION OF CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DETACHING FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW, UNDER THE EFFECT OF PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 25KT IN THE 250-450 HPA LAYER
(ACCORDING TO THE HAFS-A FINE MODEL). THE EFFECT OF WINDSHEAR IS
CLEARLY DEMONSTRATED BY THE AMSR-2 MICROWAVE PASS AT 0838Z AND THE
SSMIS-F18 PASS AT 1118Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE
DATA (ASCAT-C FROM 0416Z) STILL SUGGEST STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN A
SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD FAVOR A CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL
MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
PLUNGING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT 12/18H. BEYOND THIS, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101334
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/13/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 81.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 675 SO: 535 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 545 SO: 455 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 100

24H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 575 SO: 510 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 415 SO: 345 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 425 SO: 325 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SO: 185 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES SUR L'ACTIVITA
CONVECTIVE D'IVONE. TOUTEFOIS, ON REMARQUE AU VU DE L'ANIMATION DES
IMAGES SATELLITES CLASSIQUES QUE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES COMMENCE
DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES A SE DETACHER DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT PERSISTANT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ESTIME A
25KT SUR LA COUCHE 250-450 HPA (SELON LE MODELE A MAILLE FINE
HAFS-A). L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT EST CLAIREMENT MIS EN EVIDENCE PAR
LES PASSES MICRO-ONDE AMSR-2 DE 0838Z ET DE LA PASSE SSMIS-F18 DE
1118Z. LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DVORAK AINSI QUE LES DONNEES
OBJECTIVES (ASCAT-C DE 0416Z) SUGGERENT ENCORE DES VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE
EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTOURNANT
LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE
SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, IVONE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. AU DELA LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT ALORS
CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.
IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
48H DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101233
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 245 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 365 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
20.5 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 275 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100729
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 82.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 610 SW: 500 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 685 SW: 435 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 435 SW: 285 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 530 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 575 SW: 500 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SW: 220 NW: 95

72H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WITH COLD SUMMITS. THIS STRUCTURE
IS PROBABLY THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF A NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE ASCAT-C OF 0416UTC SHOWS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, VERY ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-SOUTH
DIRECTION, WITH MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, BELOW
THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE DEBIASED MEAN WINDS ARE OF THE ORDER OF
45/50KT, HIGHER THAN THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST. BESTRACK WILL
THEREFORE BE UPDATED SHORTLY IN THE LIGHT OF THIS DIRECT OBSERVATION.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN A
SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD FAVOR A CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL
MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
PLUNGING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT 12/18H. BEYOND THIS, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100729
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 82.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 610 SO: 500 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 435 SO: 295 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 685 SO: 435 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 435 SO: 285 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 530 SO: 510 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 0

36H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 575 SO: 500 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 345 SO: 220 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SO: 315 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SO: 220 NO: 95

72H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 185 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE S'EST MAINTENUE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST AVEC DES SOMMETS
TRES FROIDS. CETTE STRUCTURE EST PROBABLEMENT LA CONSEQUENCE DIRECTE
D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD PRESENT NOTAMMENT EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. L'ASCAT-C DE 0416UTC MONTRE UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
EXPOSE, ET TRES ALLONGE DANS LE SENS NORD-SUD, AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS
MAXIMAUX RELEGUES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, SOUS LE CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE. LES VENTS MOYENS DEBIAISES SONT DE L'ORDRE DE 45/50KT,
PLUS ELEVES QUE LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LA BESTRACK SERA
DONC REACTUALISEE PROCHAINEMENT AU VU DE CETTE OBSERVATION DIRECTE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE
EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTOURNANT
LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE
SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, IVONE SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DE
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DANS LES PROCHAINES 12/18H. AU DELA LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT ALORS
CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.
IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
48H DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100636
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 82.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 235 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 370 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 275 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100104
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 82.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 600 SW: 600 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 610 SW: 565 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 230

24H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 620 SW: 565 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 165

36H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 630 SW: 630 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 640 SW: 575 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 565 SW: 480 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH VERY COLD TOPS, BUT APPEARS LESS PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (GMI 0009Z). THIS STRUCTURE
IS PROBABLY THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE WEST- NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT
IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE ESTIMATES, THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING A CHANGE IN TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL
MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
HEADING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE NO LONGER SEEMS TO HAVE A FAVORABLE
PERIOD FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM COULD REMAIN CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT, WESTERLY SHEAR
AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING OF IVONE DURING
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN GALES IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100104
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 82.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 405 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 610 SO: 565 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 230

24H: 11/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 620 SO: 565 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 165

36H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 630 SO: 630 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 640 SO: 575 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 565 SO: 480 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS MAIS
ELLE SEMBLE MOINS PRESENTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST SUR LES
IMAGERIES CLASSIQUES. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES (GMI 0009Z). CETTE STRUCTURE EST PROBABLEMENT LA
CONSEQUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD OUEST PRESENT NOTAMMENT EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. EN L'ABSENCE D'ESTIMATIONS FIABLES, L'INTENSITE
EST MAINTENUE A 45KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST
EN CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, IVONE NE SEMBLE PLUS DISPOSER D'UNE FENETRE
FAVORABLE A SON DEVELOPPEMENT. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS SE
MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H. AU DELA LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT ALORS CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE EN
COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS
FORTS DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100019
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 82.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 235 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 325 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
19.8 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 330 NM SW: 305 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 125 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 335 NM SW: 305 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091935
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 83.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 600 SW: 600 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SW: 470 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 565 SW: 510 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SW: 545 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 545 SW: 535 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED NEAR THE
CENTER, WITH SUMMITS STILL VERY COLD. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR. THE 1614Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE (45KT). IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION
CORE IS VERY ELONGATED, IN RELATION TO CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES. THE
CENTER'S POSITION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING A CHANGE IN TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST
UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
HEADING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE NO LONGER SEEMS TO HAVE A FAVORABLE
PERIOD FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM COULD REMAIN CLOSE TO ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT, WESTERLY SHEAR
AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW FILLING OF IVONE DURING
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD STILL MAINTAIN GALES IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091935
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 83.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 405 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2025 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SO: 470 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 325 NO: 0

24H: 10/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 565 SO: 510 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 0

36H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SO: 545 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 0

48H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 545 SO: 535 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SO: 325 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SO: 325 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SO: 315 NO: 0

120H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
RENFORCEE PROCHE DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS TOUJOURS TRES FROIDS.
CEPENDANT ELLE RESTE LIMITEE AU DEMI-CERCLE SUD, SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE NORD ET D'AIR SEC. LA PASSE ASCAT DE
1614Z MONTRE UN LEGER RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD
(45KT). ELLE MONTRE EGALEMENT QUE LE COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION EST TRES
ALLONGEE EN LIEN AVEC LES ASYMETRIES DE CONVECTION. LA POSITION DU
CENTRE RESTE DONC UN PEU INCERTAINE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST
EN CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, IVONE NE SEMBLE PLUS DISPOSER D'UN FENETRE
FAVORABLE A SON DEVELOPPEMENT. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS SE
MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H. AU DELA LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT ALORS CONDUIRE A UN LENT COMBLEMENT D'IVONE EN
COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR ENCORE DES VENTS
FORTS DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091805
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 83.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 235 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 325 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 275 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091216
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 83.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 340 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 250309065655
2025030906 24S IVONE 003 02 185 10 SATL 045
T000 152S 0841E 045 R034 110 NE QD 220 SE QD 250 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 172S 0835E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 189S 0827E 050 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 197S 0815E 045 R034 040 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 198S 0794E 045 R034 040 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 200S 0739E 040 R034 030 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 220S 0693E 035 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 260S 0664E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.2S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.0S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.0S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 84.0E.
09MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1558
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z
IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
2425030612 77S 878E 20
2425030618 81S 881E 20
2425030700 85S 882E 20
2425030706 96S 880E 20
2425030712 102S 871E 20
2425030718 105S 860E 30
2425030800 112S 851E 30
2425030806 117S 847E 35
2425030812 124S 844E 35
2425030818 133S 841E 40
2425030900 142S 842E 40
2425030906 152S 841E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090618
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 84.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
17.7 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090112 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 610 SW: 510 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 350 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 535 SW: 405 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 35

24H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 510 SW: 405 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 455 SW: 405 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 400 SW: 405 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 350 SW: 405 NW: 120

120H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 405 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE BANDED CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY
COLD, BUT WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. PARTIAL
ASCAT PASSES FROM 1547UTC STILL SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME
MAXIMUM VALUES OF 45KT, WHICH SHOULD BE MORE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. GCOM-W MICROWAVE DATA FROM 1942UTC CONFIRMS THIS BROAD
CIRCULATION, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED MORE IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN BE INCREASED TO 3.5-, VALIDATING THE 45KT WINDS
MEASURED. IVONE REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING A CHANGE IN TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST
UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
HEADING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARDS.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FORECAST, IVONE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAK SHEAR AND STRONG OCEAN
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, ITS LARGE CORE SHOULD LIMIT ITS RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT. IT COULD REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS
AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS OCCUR LATER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLOWLY
FILL IN OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT COULD STILL
GENERATE STRONG WINDS IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT
AS IT DESCENDS SOUTHWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090024
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 84.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 610 SO: 510 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SO: 350 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2025 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 535 SO: 405 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 35

24H: 10/03/2025 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 510 SO: 405 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 0

36H: 10/03/2025 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 0

48H: 11/03/2025 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 455 SO: 405 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 0

60H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 425 SO: 405 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 0

72H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 400 SO: 405 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 350 SO: 405 NO: 120

120H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 405 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
S'EST MAINTENUE BIEN FROIDE AVEC TOUTEFOIS UNE ACTIVITE FAIBLE DANS
LE QUADRANT NORD. LES PASSES ASCAT PARTIELLES DE 1547UTC MONTRENT
ENCORE UNE CIRCULATION LARGE AVEC QUELQUES VALEURS MAXIMALES DE 45KT,
QUI DOIVENT ETRE PLUS PRESENTES DANS LE SECTEUR SUD NON RENSEIGNE.
LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE GCOM-W DE 1942UTC CONFIRME CETTE LARGEUR DE
CIRCULATION AVEC TOUTEFOIS UNE LOCALISATION DU CENTRE PLUTOT DANS LE
SECTEUR OUEST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PEUT AUGMENTER A 3.5- VALIDANT LES
VENTS DE 45KT MESURES. IVONE RESTE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST
EN CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME D'INTENSITE, IVONE DISPOSE D'UNE COURTE
FENETRE FAVORABLE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE
ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, SON LARGE COEUR DEVRAIT
LIMITER SON RYTHME DE DEVELOPPEMENT. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR SUITE AU RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC PLUS TARDIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
LENTEMENT SE COMBLER EN COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE BIEN QU'IL
POURRAIT ENCORE PRESENTER DES VENTS FORTS DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT LORS DE SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 082359
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 275 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 600 SW: 575 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 465 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 585 SW: 480 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 620 SW: 470 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 95

48H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 610 SW: 510 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 120

60H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 455 SW: 360 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

SYSTEM 13-20242025 HAS BEEN NAMED AT 15UTC BY THE MAURITIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. IT IS NOW MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IVONE. OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY COLD, MOVING A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST, CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE LAST ASCAT PASS WAS
PARTIAL, BUT WITH WINDS OF 45KT AND A WIDE CIRCULATION. THIS
CIRCULATION IS STILL WIDE, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA, IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MORE
CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN OR WESTERN SECTOR. BY OPTING FOR A MORE
WESTERLY LOCALIZATION, A 3.0+ DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE, STILL
LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS A LITTLE BELOW THE MAXIMUM ASCAT WIND VALUES
OF 1455UTC BY 45KT. IVONE REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING A CHANGE IN TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST
UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
HEADING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAK SHEAR AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, ITS LARGE CORE SHOULD LIMIT ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. IT
COULD REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. FROM MONDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS OCCUR LATER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLOWLY FILL IN OVER
THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT COULD STILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/13/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 84.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 600 SO: 575 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SO: 295 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2025 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SO: 465 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SO: 240 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 0

24H: 09/03/2025 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 585 SO: 480 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 285 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 0

36H: 10/03/2025 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 620 SO: 470 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 390 SO: 295 NO: 95

48H: 10/03/2025 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 610 SO: 510 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 390 SO: 285 NO: 120

60H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 490 SO: 390 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 455 SO: 360 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 325 NO: 0

120H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SO: 400 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

LE SYSTEME 13-20242025 A ETE BAPTISE A 15UTC PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN. IL S'AGIT MAINTENANT DE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE IVONE. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST MAINTENUE BIEN FROIDE GAGNANT UN PEU
PLUS DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST, A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. LA DERNIERE PASSE
ASCAT A ETE PARTIELLE MAIS NOTE DES VENTS DE 45KT ET UNE CIRCULATION
BIEN LARGE. CETTE CIRCULATION RESTE ENCORE LARGE ET EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES IL EST DIFFICILE DE DIRE SI LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES SE CONCENTRE PLUTOT SUR LE SECRTEUR EST
OU OUEST. EN OPTANT POUR UNE LOCALICATION PLUTOT A L'OUEST, UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK A 3.0+ PEUT ETRE FAITE, LAISSANT ENCORE DES VENTS
ESTIMES UN PEU EN DESSOUS DES VALEURS MAXIMALES DE VENT ASCAT DE
1455UTC DE 45KT. IVONE RESTE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IVONE SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST
EN CONTOURNANT LA DORSALE PAR LE NORD-OUEST PUIS PLONGER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, IVONE DISPOSE D'UNE COURTE FENETRE FAVORABLE
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE ET UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, SON LARGE COEUR DEVRAIT LIMITER SON
RYTHME DE DEVELOPPEMENT. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
SUITE AU RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC PLUS TARDIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS LENTEMENT SE COMBLER
EN COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE BIEN QU'IL POURRAIT ENCORE PRESENTER
DES VENTS FORTS DANS SA PARTIE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT LORS DE SA
DESCENTE VERS LE SUD.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081804
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 235 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 325 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

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