Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DIKELEDI-25
in Madagascar, Mozambique, Comoros

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250117185530
2025011718 07S DIKELEDI 017 01 105 33 SATL 060
T000 350S 0619E 045 R034 145 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 351S 0686E 035 R034 090 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 35.0S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.0S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 35.1S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 63.6E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
927 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, AS INDICATED BY HEAVILY SHEARED CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BECOMING STRETCHED AND ELONGATED. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH SST AT 24 CELSIUS OR
LOWER, IN ADDITION TO 30+ KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 97S IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS
994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011612 306S 469E 90
0725011612 306S 469E 90
0725011612 306S 469E 90
0725011618 322S 490E 75
0725011618 322S 490E 75
0725011618 322S 490E 75
0725011700 329S 520E 65
0725011700 329S 520E 65
0725011700 329S 520E 65
0725011706 337S 548E 50
0725011706 337S 548E 50
0725011712 342S 580E 45
0725011718 350S 619E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 35.0S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.0S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 35.1S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 63.6E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
927 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, AS INDICATED BY HEAVILY SHEARED CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BECOMING STRETCHED AND ELONGATED. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH SST AT 24 CELSIUS OR
LOWER, IN ADDITION TO 30+ KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07S IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS
994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/5/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 58.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 31 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 155

24H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 110

36H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 195

48H: 2025/01/19 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 140



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WITH THE LOWER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER, DUE TO THE WESTERLY SHEAR. IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ANALYSES
AND THE WEAKENING TREND, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55KT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A RAPID WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

THE WEAKENING AND COLLAPSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR AND THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S. INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR AND SSTS BELOW
23C WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTION AND LEAD TO THE SYSTEM'S
EXTRATROPICALIZATION BY TOMORROW, SATURDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FILL ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITHIN
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171216
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 43/5/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 34.6 S / 58.5 E
(TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 31 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SO: 80 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 0 SO: 195 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 155

24H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 0 SO: 220 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 110

36H: 19/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 195

48H: 19/01/2025 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 140



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE
DE SE DEGRADER. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT RA CHAUFFA S AVEC LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE A
DISTANCE DU CENTRE EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST. EN ACCORD
AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES ET LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSMENT,
L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 55KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX RAPIDE
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD ET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
NORD-EST PUIS NORD. LA PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET GFS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA DESTRUCTURATION DU SYSTEME VA CONTINUER CES
PROCHAINS JOURS SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A UNE LATITUDE PROCHE DE 35S. LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ET LES SST SOUS LES 23C, VONT FORTEMENT LIMITER
LA CONVECTION ET CONDUIRE A L'EXTRATROPICALISATION DU SYSTEME D'ICI
DEMAIN SAMEDI. IL CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR PAR LA SUITE. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT SE COMBLER DIMANCHE OU LUNDI AU SEIN D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE
SURFACE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171209 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 58.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 31 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
34.9 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 85 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171202 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 58.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 31 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
34.9 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171201
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 58.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 31 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
34.9 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 33.7S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.5S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.9S 56.4E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250117073451
2025011706 07S DIKELEDI 016 01 110 28 SATL 045
T000 337S 0548E 050 R050 070 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 345S 0612E 040 R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 343S 0677E 035 R034 080 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 33.7S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.5S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.9S 56.4E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011612 306S 469E 90
0725011612 306S 469E 90
0725011612 306S 469E 90
0725011618 318S 489E 75
0725011618 318S 489E 75
0725011618 318S 489E 75
0725011700 329S 516E 65
0725011700 329S 516E 65
0725011700 329S 516E 65
0725011706 337S 548E 50
0725011706 337S 548E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/5/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.8 S / 54.6 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 120

36H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 165

48H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/19 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/01/20 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE CENTER, WITH WESTERLY SHEAR EXCEEDING 30KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS. THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUED TO WARM AS SST DROPPED BELOW 23C. 0229Z SMOS DATA AND
0442Z CALIBRATED ASCAT DATA GAVE 65KT AND 60KT RESPECTIVELY. IN LINE
WITH THESE ASSESSMENTS, DIKELEDI IS ANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 60KT AT 6Z.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A RAPID WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

THE WEAKENING AND COLLAPSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR AND THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S. THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
ACCENTUATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE INNER CORE
THIS FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE, WITH SSTS BELOW 23C, WHICH WILL STRONGLY DAMPEN CONVECTION.
DIKELEDI SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TOMORROW
SATURDAY, AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FILL
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170637
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 42/5/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.8 S / 54.6 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 27 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 120

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

24H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 0 SO: 205 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 120

36H: 18/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 165

48H: 19/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 0

60H: 19/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

72H: 20/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
S'ELOIGNER DU CENTRE, EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST QUI
DEPASSE LES 30KT D'APRES LE CIMSS. LE CENTRE EST PARTIELLEMENT
VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT CONTINUE
DE SE RECHAUFFER AVEC LA BAISSE DE LA SST SOUS LES 23C. LES DONNES
SMOS DE 0229Z ET ASCAT CALIBREE DE 0442Z DONNAIENT RESPECTIVEMENT
65KT ET 60KT. EN ACCORD AVEC CES ESTIMATIONS ET ANALYSES, DIKELEDI
EST ANALYSE EN DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 60KT A 6Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX RAPIDE
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD ET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
NORD-EST PUIS NORD. LA PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET GFS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA DESTRUCTURATION DU SYSTEME VA CONTINUER CES
PROCHAINS JOURS SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A UNE LATITUDE PROCHE DE 35S. LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ACCENTUERA LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME CE VENDREDI. EN PARALLELE, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE VA CONTINUER A BAISSER AVEC DES SST SOUS LES 23C,
CE QUI ATTENUERA FORTEMENT LA CONVECTION. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT DONC
DEVENIR UN SYSTEME EXTRATROPICAL DEMAIN SAMEDI, ET CONTINUERA A
S'AFFAIBLIR PAR LA SUITE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER AUTOUR DE
DIMANCHE OU LUNDI AU SEIN D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE SURFACE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 170610
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 042/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.8 S / 54.6 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
34.7 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
34.6 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.2 S / 51.7 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 28 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 85

24H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 165

48H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH
RELATIVELY INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 30 NM EAST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS ESTIMATED AT 3.5. AMONG
THE RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA AVAILABLE, A SMAP PASS AT 1507Z
MEASURED WINDS OF 70 KT, WHILE A SAR RCM2 PASS AT 1517Z GAVE WINDS
NEAR 80-85 KT (EQUIVALENT IN 10-MIN WINDS). THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY
AT 18UTC AT 75 KT THEREFORE SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. A PARTIAL
ASCAT-C PASS AT 1818Z SHOWED THAT THERE ARE NO LONGER HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT STILL STORM-FORCE WINDS. IT
ALSO SHOWED A BROADENING OF THE WIND STRUCTURE. AT 00UTC, OBJECTIVE
CIMSS ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN 55 AND 75 KT (10-MIN WINDS). THE FINAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIFFERENT DATA, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 65 KT AT 00UTC. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A RAPID WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

WEAKENING AND DESTRUCTURING OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AT A
LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ENHANCE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE THIS FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP : CURRENTLY
OVER SST NEAR 24C, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OCEAN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 21-23C THIS FRIDAY, THEN 20-21C THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL GREATLY WEAKEN ITS CONVECTION. DIKELEDI SHOULD
THEREFORE SOON BECOME POST-TROPICAL TODAY AND WILL KEEP WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN AROUND
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, EMBEDDED IN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.2 S / 51.7 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 28 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 85

24H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 155

36H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SO: 205 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 165

48H: 19/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE RELATIVEMENT INTENSE DEPORTEE
A ENVIRON 30 MN A L'EST DU CENTRE DE SURFACE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE EST ESTIMEE A 3.5. PARMI LES DONNEES D'INTENSITE
OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, UNE PASSE SMAP A 1507Z A MESURE DES VENTS DE
70 KT, TANDIS QU'UNE PASSE SAR RCM2 A 1517Z DONNAIT DES VENTS DE
L'ORDRE DE 80-85 KT (EQUIVALENT EN VENTS 10-MIN). L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE A 18UTC A 75 KT SEMBLE DONC ETRE UN BON COMPROMIS. UNE
PASSE ASCAT-C PARTIELLE A 1818Z A MONTRE QU'IL N'Y A PLUS DE VENTS DE
FORCE OURAGAN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, MAIS ENCORE DE LA TEMPETE.
ELLE A AUSSI MONTRE UN ELARGISSEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION VENTEUSE. A
00UTC, LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS VARIENT ENTRE 55 ET 75 KT
(VENTS 10-MIN). L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME EST
RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE ET FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DIFFERENTES
DONNEES, AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 65 KT A 00UTC. LES VENTS
DE FORCE OURAGAN SEMBLENT DESORMAIS LIMITES AU QUADRANT NORD-EST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX RAPIDE
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD ET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
NORD-EST PUIS NORD. LA PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET GFS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA DESTRUCTURATION DU SYSTEME VA CONTINUER CES
PROCHAINS JOURS SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A UNE LATITUDE PROCHE DE 35S. LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ACCENTUERA LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME CE VENDREDI. EN PARALLELE, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE VA CONTINUER A BAISSER : ENCORE SUR DES EAUX A
ENVIRON 24C EN CETTE FIN DE NUIT, LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES
TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE OCEANIQUES S'ABAISSANT VERS 21-23C CE
VENDREDI PUIS 20-21C CE WEEK-END, CE QUI ATTENUERA FORTEMENT LA
CONVECTION. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT DONC PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES ET CONTINUERA A S'AFFAIBLIR PAR
LA SUITE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER AUTOUR DE DIMANCHE OU LUNDI
AU SEIN D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE SURFACE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 170015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.2 S / 51.7 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 28 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
34.6 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
35.0 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250116192401
2025011618 07S DIKELEDI 015 01 125 20 SATL RADR 020
T000 318S 0489E 075 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 085 SE QD 045 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 338S 0547E 055 R050 060 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 346S 0611E 040 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 31.8S 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.8S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.6S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 32.3S 50.3E.
16JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
740 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011612 306S 470E 90
0725011612 306S 470E 90
0725011612 306S 470E 90
0725011618 318S 489E 75
0725011618 318S 489E 75
0725011618 318S 489E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 31.8S 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.8S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.6S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 32.3S 50.3E.
16JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
740 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161929
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.9 S / 48.8 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 0 SW: 270 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150

48H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 260

60H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF RAPID
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN AND
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, DUE TO
INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR. MICROWAVE IMAGES SSMIS F17 AND
F16 AT 1533Z AND 1554Z, FOLLOWED BY GPM-GMI AT 1804Z, REVEAL A CDO
DISPLACED ABOUT 30-40 NM AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER, WHICH IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL FAIRLY WELL
CONSOLIDATED, BUT HAS WIDENED COMPARED WITH THURSDAY MORNING.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MET, RAPIDLY DECREASING
FROM THE SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY ON THURSDAY MORNING 03-06UTC. A SMOS
PASS AT 1415Z MEASURED WINDS OF 65 KT, INDICATING CLEAR WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT THE RELIABILITY OF THIS MEASUREMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN 70 AND 85 KT (10MIN WINDS).
THE FINAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 75 KT AT
18UTC, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS DATA. IN ADDITION,
THE 12UTC INTENSITY WAS RE-EVALUATED AT 90 KT AFTERHAND.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A NORTH-WESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS UNAVOIDABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DUE TO
THE EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ENHANCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP : CURRENTLY OVER SST
NEAR 25C, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND 21-23C ON FRIDAY, THEN 20-21C THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL GREATLY WEAKEN ITS CONVECTION. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME
POST-TROPICAL FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN AROUND
SUNDAY AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161929
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.9 S / 48.8 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 22 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 165 SO: 260 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SO: 250 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 155

36H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 0 SO: 270 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 150

48H: 18/01/2025 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SO: 205 NO: 260

60H: 19/01/2025 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A AMORCE UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE SYSTEME A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL ET LA CONVECTION S'EST DEPORTEE A L'EST-SUD-EST
DU CENTRE EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS F17 ET F16 DE 1533Z ET 1554Z PUIS LA
GPM-GMI DE 1804Z METTENT EN EVIDENCE UN CDO DECALE D'ENVIRON 30-40 MN
DU CENTRE DE SURFACE, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE. LE VORTEX DE BASSES
COUCHES EST ENCORE ASSEZ BIEN CONSOLIDE MAIS S'EST ELARGI PAR RAPPORT
A JEUDI MATIN. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST BASEE SUR LE MET, EN
BAISSE RAPIDE PAR RAPPORT AU PIC D'INTENSITE DE JEUDI MATIN 03-06UTC.
UNE PASSE SMOS A 1415Z A MESURE DES VENTS DE 65 KT, CE QUI TEMOIGNE
D'UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, MAIS LA FIABILITE DE CETTE
MESURE EST INCERTAINE. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS VARIENT
ENTRE 70 ET 85 KT (VENTS 10MIN). L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME EST
DONC ESTIMEE A 75 KT A 18UTC, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DIVERSES
DONNEES. PAR AILLEURS, L'INTENSITE DE 12UTC A ETE REEVALUEE A 90 KT A
POSTERIORI.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PUIS
OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES CIRCULANT PLUS AU
SUD ET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST PUIS NORD. IL EXISTE
ENCORE UNE LEGERE DISPERSION ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EN TERMES
DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET GFS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST INELUCTABLE CES PROCHAINS JOURS SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ACCENTUERA LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME VENDREDI. EN PARALLELE,
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE VA CONTINUER A BAISSER : ENCORE SUR DES EAUX A
ENVIRON 25C CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES TEMPERATURES
DE SURFACE OCEANIQUES S'ABAISSANT VERS 21-23C VENDREDI PUIS 20-21C CE
WEEK-END, CE QUI ATTENUERA FORTEMENT LA CONVECTION. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
DONC PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI TOUT
EN CONTINUANT A S'AFFAIBLIR PAR LA SUITE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE
COMBLER AUTOUR DE DIMANCHE A UNE LATITUDE PROCHE DE 35S.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.9 S / 48.8 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 0 SW: 270 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150

48H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 260

60H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF RAPID
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN AND
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, DUE TO
INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR. MICROWAVE IMAGES SSMIS F17 AND
F16 AT 1533Z AND 1554Z, FOLLOWED BY GPM-GMI AT 1804Z, REVEAL A CDO
DISPLACED ABOUT 30-40 NM AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER, WHICH IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL FAIRLY WELL
CONSOLIDATED, BUT HAS WIDENED COMPARED WITH THURSDAY MORNING.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MET, RAPIDLY DECREASING
FROM THE SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY ON THURSDAY MORNING 03-06UTC. A SMOS
PASS AT 1415Z MEASURED WINDS OF 65 KT, INDICATING CLEAR WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT THE RELIABILITY OF THIS MEASUREMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN 70 AND 85 KT (10MIN WINDS).
THE FINAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 75 KT AT
18UTC, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS DATA. IN ADDITION,
THE 12UTC INTENSITY WAS RE-EVALUATED AT 90 KT AFTERHAND.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A NORTH-WESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS UNAVOIDABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DUE TO
THE EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ENHANCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP : CURRENTLY OVER SST
NEAR 25C, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND 21-23C ON FRIDAY, THEN 20-21C THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL GREATLY WEAKEN ITS CONVECTION. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEREFORE BECOMBE
POST-TROPICAL FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN AROUND
SUNDAY AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161831
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.9 S / 48.8 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 22 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 165 SO: 260 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SO: 250 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 155

36H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 0 SO: 270 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 150

48H: 18/01/2025 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SO: 205 NO: 260

60H: 19/01/2025 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A AMORCE UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE SYSTEME A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL ET LA CONVECTION S'EST DEPORTEE A L'EST-SUD-EST
DU CENTRE EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS F17 ET F16 DE 1533Z ET 1554Z PUIS LA
GPM-GMI DE 1804Z METTENT EN EVIDENCE UN CDO DECALE D'ENVIRON 30-40 MN
DU CENTRE DE SURFACE, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE. LE VORTEX DE BASSES
COUCHES EST ENCORE ASSEZ BIEN CONSOLIDE MAIS S'EST ELARGI PAR RAPPORT
A JEUDI MATIN. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST BASEE SUR LE MET, EN
BAISSE RAPIDE PAR RAPPORT AU PIC D'INTENSITE DE JEUDI MATIN 03-06UTC.
UNE PASSE SMOS A 1415Z A MESURE DES VENTS DE 65 KT, CE QUI TEMOIGNE
D'UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, MAIS LA FIABILITE DE CETTE
MESURE EST INCERTAINE. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS VARIENT
ENTRE 70 ET 85 KT (VENTS 10MIN). L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME EST
DONC ESTIMEE A 75 KT A 18UTC, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DIVERSES
DONNEES. PAR AILLEURS, L'INTENSITE DE 12UTC A ETE REEVALUEE A 90 KT A
POSTERIORI.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PUIS
OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES CIRCULANT PLUS AU
SUD ET D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST PUIS NORD. IL EXISTE
ENCORE UNE LEGERE DISPERSION ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EN TERMES
DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET GFS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST INELUCTABLE CES PROCHAINS JOURS SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST ACCENTUERA LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME VENDREDI. EN PARALLELE,
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE VA CONTINUER A BAISSER : ENCORE SUR DES EAUX A
ENVIRON 25C CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES TEMPERATURES
DE SURFACE OCEANIQUES S'ABAISSANT VERS 21-23C VENDREDI PUIS 20-21C CE
WEEK-END, CE QUI ATTENUERA FORTEMENT LA CONVECTION. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
DONC PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI TOUT
EN CONTINUANT A S'AFFAIBLIR PAR LA SUITE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE
COMBLER AUTOUR DE DIMANCHE A UNE LATITUDE PROCHE DE 35S.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 161814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.9 S / 48.8 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
34.1 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
35.0 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/5/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 46.9 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 60 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 130

48H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGE DVORAK OF 5.5+. HOWEVER, VISIBLE AND INFRA-RED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS LESS AND LESS VISIBLE AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. DIKELEDI REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF 95KT.

CURRENTLY AT A LATITUDE OF 30.6S, DIKELEDI BECOMES THE MOST SOUTHERLY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR DATABASE, ECLIPSING ANGREEK'S RECORD
FROM LAST SEASON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT
TERM BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING
FURTHER SOUTH, GENERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT. FROM TONIGHT
ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THICKEN AND DIKELEDI WILL
CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, HEADING DUE EAST. THERE
IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEADERS IN TERMS OF
SPEED. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI UNTIL NOW IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL IS BEGINNING TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR. IN THE COMING
HOURS, WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER, ALLOWING INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, AS IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS, DIKEDELI SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM TOMORROW, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DIKEDELI
SHOULD REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW STAGE EARLY THIS WEEKEND.


THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161219
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.6 S / 46.9 E
(TRENTE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 25 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 60 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 35 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 195 SO: 250 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 130

48H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 100



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

DIKELEDI S'EST MAINTENU DANS SA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC UN DVORAK MOYENNE SUR 3 HEURES DE 5.5+.
CEPENDANT, A L'IMAGE SATELLITE VISIBLE ET INFRA-ROUGE ON REMARQUE QUE
L'OEIL EST DE MOINS EN VISIBLE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT QUI AUGMENTE. DIKELEDI EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 95KT.

ACTUELLEMENT A UNE LATITUDE DE 30.6S, DIKELEDI DEVIENT LE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE LE PLUS SUD DE NOTRE BASE DE DONNEES, SURPASSANT LE
RECORD DE ANGREEK DE LA SAISON PASSEE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. LE SYSTEME EST PILOTE A
COURTE ECHEANCE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN THALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS
AU SUD GENERANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. PUIS A PARTIR DE
CETTE NUIT, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VA GROSSIR ET DIKELEDI VA
CIRCULER SUR LA FACE SUD DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AVEC UNE
DIRECTION PLEIN EST. IL Y A PEU D'INCERTITUDE SUR LA FORME DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE MAIS IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE LEGERE DISPERSION ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES EN TERMES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA
PREVISION CMRS SE RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO IFS QUI EST PLUS
RAPIDE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKEDELI JUSQUE LA DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
FAVORABLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEEMNT DE VENT ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ELEVE COMMENCE A
SUFFIR LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT.DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST DEVRAIT ENCORE AUGMENTER ET PERMETTRE DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AUTOUR DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, CIRCULANT
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, DIKEDELI DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN TOUT EN CONTINUANT A
S'AFFAIBLIR. DIKEDELI DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 161207
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 46.9 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
32.9 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250116074434
2025011606 07S DIKELEDI 014 01 140 18 SATL 045
T000 289S 0447E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 316S 0489E 085 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 335S 0544E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 346S 0607E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 348S 0673E 040 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 28.9S 44.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 44.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.6S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 45.8E.
16JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 950 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011518 257S 423E 90
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011600 275S 434E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
0725011606 289S 447E 100
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 28.9S 44.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 44.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.6S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 45.8E.
16JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 950 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/5/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9 S / 44.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 60 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 55

48H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 165

60H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKEDELI HAS INITIALLY EXPERIENCED A PHASE OF
STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT, WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGE EYE ANALYSIS OF 6.0,
BEFORE DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 5.5+ AT AROUND 06UTC. IN ADDITION, A SAR
PASS AT 0230Z MEASURED MAXIMUM WINDS AT 100KT 1 MINUTE. DIKELEDI IS
THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 95KT AT 06UTC.

CURRENTLY AT A LATITUDE OF 28.8S, DIKELEDI BECOMES THE MOST SOUTHERLY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR DATABASE, ECLIPSING ANGREEK'S RECORD
FROM LAST SEASON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT
TERM BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING
FURTHER SOUTH, GENERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT. FROM TONIGHT
ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THICKEN AND DIKELEDI WILL
CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, HEADING DUE EAST. THERE
IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEADERS IN TERMS OF SPEED. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW WIND SHEAR AND
HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, THE WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALLOWING INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
AROUND THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS, DIKEDELI SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
FROM TOMORROW, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DIKEDELI SHOULD REACH
EXTRATROPICAL LOW STATUS EARLY THIS WEEKEND.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE COAST,
WITH CUMULUS OF 100MM POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160626
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.9 S / 44.7 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 60 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 55

48H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 165

60H: 18/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKEDELI A DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS
CONNU UNE PHASE D'AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE AVEC UNE ANALYSE EN
OEIL MOYENNEE SUR 3 HEURES A 6.0 AVANT DE REDESCENDRE UN PEU A 5.5+
VERS 06UTC. PAR AILLEURS UNE PASSE SAR A 0230Z MESURE DES VENTS MAX A
100KT 1 MINUTE. DIKELEDI EST DONC ESTIME A 95KT A 06UTC.

ACTUELLEMENT A UNE LATITUDE DE 28.8S, DIKELEDI DEVIENT LE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE LE PLUS SUD DE NOTRE BASE DE DONNEES, SURPASSANT LE
RECORD DE ANGREEK DE LA SAISON PASSEE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. LE SYSTEME EST PILOTE A
COURTE ECHEANCE PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN THALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS
AU SUD GENERANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. PUIS A PARTIR DE
CETTE NUIT, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VA GROSSIR ET DIKELEDI VA
CIRCULER SUR LA FACE SUD DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AVEC UNE
DIRECTION PLEIN EST. IL Y A PEU D'INCERTITUDE SUR LA FORME DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE MAIS IL EXISTE UNE DISPERSION ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES EN TERMES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS SE
RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO IFS QUI EST PLUS RAPIDE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKEDELI SE SITUE ACTUELLEMENT DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UN
FAIBLE CISAILLEEMNT DE VENT ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ELEVE. IL
DEVRAIT DONC ENCORE SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. PUIS A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER ET PERMETTRE
DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AUTOUR DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS,
CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, DIKEDELI DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN TOUT EN
CONTINUANT A S'AFFAIBLIR. DIKEDELI DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STATUS DE
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- FORTES PLUIES ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES PRES DU
LITTORAL AVEC DES CUMULS DE 100MM POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION EN FIN DE
JOURNEE=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 160613
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9 S / 44.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 320 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
31.6 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
33.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/5/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 50 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

48H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 140

72H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, THE SAR-RCM PASS OF 1543UTC
PRESENTED EXCESSIVE VMAX VALUES. ANALYSIS OF THE WIND PROFILES WOULD
DEFINE A VMAX IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE ORDER OF 82KT IN 1MIN
WIND OR 72KT IN 10MIN WIND. THIS VALUE WOULD THEN VALIDATE THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 75KT FOR A CI OF 5.0- MADE AT THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME.
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION,
BUT WITH AN EYE THAT IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FREE ITSELF FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT ITS CENTER. THE GPM PASS AT 1856UTC AND THE
GCOM-W PASS AT 2152UTC SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN CIRCULATION. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN INFRA-RED IMAGES OF COLDER, WIDER CLOUD TOPS OF THE
EYEWALL. IN THESE CONDITIONS, A DVORAK ANALYSIS OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD
GIVES A T OF 5.5, PLACING DIKELEDI AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 00UTC, WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 90KT. THIS
ESTIMATE COULD REACH 95KT IF WE LIMIT OURSELVES TO THE LAST 3 HOURS,
AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS UNDERWAY.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR LESS THAN 48 HOURS: THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK IS STEERED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A WIDE DISPERSION IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT,
WHICH MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE OVER 48 HOURS. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO. DIKELEDI SHOULD
EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE FROM THURSDAY EVENING, CONTINUING ITS
EASTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, DIKELEDI
WILL NO LONGER PRESENT A DIRECT DANGER TO LAND FROM THE MORNING OF
THURSDAY.

STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION IN GUIDANCE INTENSITY FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER SHORT TIME SCALES. THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE RSMC IS BASED ON
THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT DIKELEDI UNTIL
THURSDAY, WITH HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL, DECREASING SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. INTENSIFICATION IS UNDERWAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, A WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT TO FRIDAY, CAUSING INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND
ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINKED TO THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL ATTENUATED, AND IT IS IN A POST-TROPICAL CONFIGURATION THAT
DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, MAINTAINING A FAIRLY LOW INTENSITY BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING IN
BY SUNDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL NEAR 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.3 S / 43.3 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 20 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 95 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SO: 65 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 50 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2025 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 55

48H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 55

60H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 140

72H: 19/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DU RESEAU PRECEDENT LA PASSE SAR-RCM DE 1543UTC PRESENTAIT
DES VALEURS TROP EXCESSIVES EN TERME DE VMAX. L'ANALYSE DES PROFILS
DE VENT PERMETTRAIT DE DEFINIR UN VMAX DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DE
L'ORDRE DE 82KT EN VENT 1MIN SOIT 72KT EN VENT 10MIN. CETTE VALEUR
VALIDAIT ALORS L'ESTIMATION DVORAK A 75KT POUR UN CI DE 5.0- FAITE AU
RESEAU PRECEDENT. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A
MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL, MAIS AVEC UN OEIL QUI A ENCORE DU
MAL A SE DEGAGER DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EN SON CENTRE. LA PASSE GPM
DE 1856UTC ET CELLE GCOM-W DE 2152UTC MONTRENT UNE NETTE AMELIORATION
DE LA CIRCULATION. CELA SE TRADUIT EN IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES PAR DES
SOMMETS DE NUAGES DU MUR DE L'OEIL PLUS FROIDS ET PLUS LARGES. DANS
CES CONDITIONS, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK LISEE SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE PERMET
DE FOURNIR UN T DE 5.5 PLACANT DIKELEDI AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE A 00UTC, AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 90KT. CETTE
ESTIMATION POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LES 95KT SI ON SE LIMITE AUX 3
DERNIERES HEURES, L'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE EST EN COURS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE A MOINS DE 48H :
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ENTRE UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT
PLUS AU SUD. IL Y A RELATIVEMENT PEU D'INCERTITUDES SUR LA FORME DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE. NEANMOINS IL EXISTE UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT CE QUI INDUIT UN PEU DE CHANGEMENT A PLUS DE
48H D'ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION CMRS SE RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO
IFS QUI EST PLUS RAPIDE. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT S'EVACUER AU SUD DE 30S DE
LATITUDE A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR EN CONTINUANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'EST GUIDE PAR LE FLUX D'EST SITUE AU SUD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
LOCALISEE SUR LE BASSIN. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, DIKELEDI NE
PRESENTERA PLUS DE DANGER DIRECT POUR LES TERRES HABITEES A PARTIR DE
LA MATINEE DE JEUDI.

TOUJOURS BEAUCOUP DE DISPERSION DANS LES PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE DES
GUIDANCES, NOTAMMENT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES. LE SCENARIO
PRIVILEGIE PAR LE CMRS SE FIE AUX BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
DONT DIKELEDI DISPOSE JUSQU'A JEUDI AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
ELEVE, UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSIFICATION EST EN COURS ET DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE
DURANT LES PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER, DEVENANT PLUS IMPACTANT A
PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, CAUSANT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC. CETTE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COMBINEE A DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI DEVRAIENT AFFAIBLIR ET ASYMETRISER LE SYSTEME.
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LIEE AU SYSTEME SERA BIEN ATTENUEE ET C'EST
DANS UNE CONFIGURATION POST-TROPICAL QUE DIKELEDI POURSUIVRA SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST EN FIN DE SEMAINE, EN GARDANT UNE INTENSITE
ASSEZ FAIBLE AVANT DE SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT A ECHEANCE DE
DIMANCHE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A LA TOUTE FIN DE NUIT.
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H PRES DU LITTORAL.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES ENTRE 4 ET 6M. DES VAGUES
MAXIMALES DE 10-12M SONT POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 160000
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
30.1 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
32.4 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250115194620
2025011518 07S DIKELEDI 013 01 165 19 SATL 020
T000 257S 0423E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 286S 0448E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 311S 0487E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 327S 0534E 060 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 335S 0584E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 341S 0674E 035 R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 25.7S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.6S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.1S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 32.7S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 33.5S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 34.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 42.9E.
15JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011506 217S 410E 70
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011512 239S 417E 75
0725011518 257S 423E 85
0725011518 257S 423E 85
0725011518 257S 423E 85
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 25.7S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.6S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.1S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 32.7S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 33.5S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 34.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 42.9E.
15JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151815
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 50 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NOTE : THE SYSTEM'S PAST BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED, DOWNGRADING ITS
INTENSITY TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSED SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ON
SUNDAY 12TH AND WHILE IT CAME OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON TUESDAY
14TH, BASED ON AFTERHAND ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA (ASCAT, SMAP).

************

T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION,
BUT WITH DIFFICULTY, WITH AN ILL-DEFINED EYE INVADED BY THE
SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA ARE OF
MEDIOCRE QUALITY, AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A SMOOTH-EYE ANALYSIS OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS GIVES A CI OF 5.0-, LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 75KT. THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI HAS NOT YET BEGUN,
BUT COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS RELATIVELY
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, WHICH PASSES SOME
200 KM OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO, WHICH IS FASTER AND MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNED WITH THE INITIAL STATE. DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S
LATITUDE FROM THURSDAY EVENING, CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TRACK GUIDED
BY THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
BASIN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, DIKELEDI WILL NO LONGER PRESENT A
DIRECT DANGER TO LAND FROM THE MORNING OF THURSDAY.

STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION IN GUIDANCE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE
SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE RSMC IS BASED ON THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AVAILABLE TO DIKELEDI UNTIL THURSDAY, WITH HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL, DECREASING SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INTO AN INTENSE CYCLONE IS THEREFORE ENVISAGED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE EVENTUALITY OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD LEAD TO FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, A WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN,
BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY, CAUSING
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINKED TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL ATTENUATED, AND
IT IS IN A POST-TROPICAL CONFIGURATION THAT DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE
ITS EASTWARD TRACK AT THE END OF THE WEEK, MAINTAINING A FAIRLY LOW
INTENSITY BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING IN BY SUNDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL NEAR 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151815
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.6 S / 42.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 21 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 95 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SO: 65 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 50 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2025 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 55

72H: 18/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
REMARQUE : LA BEST-TRACK PASSEE DU SYSTEME A ETE MISE A JOUR, EN
ABAISSANT SON INTENSITE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE LORS DE
SON PASSAGE AU SUD DE MAYOTTE DIMANCHE 12 ET EN SORTANT DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES MARDI 14, SUR LA BASE DE L'ANALYSE A POSTERIORI DE
DIVERSES DONNEES (ASCAT, SMAP).

************

T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION
EN OEIL, MAIS DIFFICILEMENT AVEC UN OEIL MAL DEFINI ET ENVAHI PAR LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE ENVIRONNANTE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
SONT DE QUALITE MEDIOCRE ET IL EST DIFFICILE DE NOTER UNE NETTE
INTENSIFICATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. UNE ANALYSE EN
OEIL LISSEE AU COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES PERMET DE DEFINIR UN CI
DE 5.0-, CE QUI LAISSE DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT.
L'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DU CYCLONE TROPICAL DIKELEDI N'A PAS ENCORE
COMMENCEE MAIS POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU AU COURS DE 6 PROCHAINES HEURES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ENTRE UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT
PLUS AU SUD. IL Y A RELATIVEMENT PEU D'INCERTITUDES SUR LA FORME DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE, PASSANT A ENVIRON 200 KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR.
NEANMOINS IL EXISTE UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS SE RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO IFS
QUI EST PLUS RAPIDE ET BIEN CALE A L'ETAT INITIAL. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
S'EVACUER AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR EN
CONTINUANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST GUIDE PAR LE FLUX D'EST SITUE AU
SUD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE SUR LE BASSIN. DANS CETTE
CONFIGURATION, DIKELEDI NE PRESENTERA PLUS DE DANGER DIRECT POUR LES
TERRES HABITEES A PARTIR DE LA MATINEE DE JEUDI.

TOUJOURS BEAUCOUP DE DISPERSION DANS LES PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE DES
GUIDANCES. LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE PAR LE CMRS SE FIE AUX BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DONT DIKELEDI DISPOSE JUSQU'A JEUDI AVEC
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ELEVE, UN CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET D'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE AU STADE DE
CYCLONE INTENSE EST DONC ENVISAGEE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H. DE PLUS,
L'EVENTUALITE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT
FAIRE FLUCTUER L'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER, DEVENANT PLUS IMPACTANT
A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, CAUSANT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC. CETTE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COMBINEE A DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI DEVRAIENT AFFAIBLIR ET ASYMETRISER LE SYSTEME.
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LIEE AU SYSTEME SERA BIEN ATTENUEE ET C'EST
DANS UNE CONFIGURATION POST-TROPICAL QUE DIKELEDI POURSUIVRA SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST EN FIN DE SEMAINE, EN GARDANT UNE INTENSITE
ASSEZ FAIBLE AVANT DE SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT A ECHEANCE DE
DIMANCHE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A LA TOUTE FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE.
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H PRES DU LITTORAL.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES ENTRE 4 ET 6M. DES VAGUES
MAXIMALES DE 10-12M SONT POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 151755
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
28.7 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
31.3 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 50 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NOTE : THE SYSTEM'S PAST BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED, DOWNGRADING ITS
INTENSITY TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSED SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ON
SUNDAY 12TH AND WHILE IT CAME OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON TUESDAY
14TH, BASED ON AFTERHAND ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA (ASCAT, SMAP).

************

T=CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS GRADUALLY ADOPTED AN EYE PATTERN,
FIRST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, THEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND 12UTC, WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE 1055Z GCOMW AMSR2 PASS
CONFIRMS THIS IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
SEEMS TO BE CONTRACTING AND HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 14MN. THE DVORAK
T-NUMBER CAN BE ESTIMATED AT 4.5 AND THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS CAN
BE ESTIMATED AT 70KT, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAKING THE
SYSTEM REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BESIDES, THE 0616Z ASCAT-C PASS
CONFIRMED THE INTENSITY PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 06Z (60KT). THE
SYSTEM PASSED 80KM EAST OF THE ISLAND OF EUROPA BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z,
WHICH WAS AFFECTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AT
MIDDAY WITH AVERAGE WINDS REACHING UP TO 29KT. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 200KM OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
AND ITS MOVEMENT HAS ACCELERATED.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTIES ON THE OVERALL TRACK SHAPE,
PASSING ABOUT 150 KM OFF THE MALAGASY COAST. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
SOME QUITE HIGH ALONG-TRACK DISPERSION, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
MODEL SCENARIO, WHICH IS A BIT FASTER AND MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH
THE INITIAL MOVEMENT. DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE
BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND WILL NO LONGER POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS FROM THEN ON.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI IS BENEFITING FROM HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT UNTIL THURSDAY, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
WIND SHEAR IS BECOMING LOW TONIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PASSING UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, THUS BENEFITING FROM GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, WITH HIGH DISPERSION
AMONG NWP MODELS. IN ADDITION, THE EVENTUALITY OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN,
BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LIKELY
CAUSING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. THIS INCREASING WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM,
MAKING IT BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

EUROPA :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M. IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL NEAR 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 41.7 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 21 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 95 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SO: 65 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 50 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SO: 120 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30

24H: 16/01/2025 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2025 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
REMARQUE : LA BEST-TRACK PASSEE DU SYSTEME A ETE MISE A JOUR, EN
ABAISSANT SON INTENSITE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE LORS DE
SON PASSAGE AU SUD DE MAYOTTE DIMANCHE 12 ET EN SORTANT DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES MARDI 14, SUR LA BASE DE L'ANALYSE A POSTERIORI DE
DIVERSES DONNEES (ASCAT, SMAP).

************

T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A PROGRESSIVEMENT ADOPTE
UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL, D'ABORD EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE, PUIS EN
IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE VERS 12UTC AVEC UNE CONVECTION DEVENANT PLUS
SYMETRIQUE. LA PASSE GCOMW AMSR2 DE 1055Z CONFIRME CETTE AMELIORATION
DE STRUCTURE. LE RAYON DE VENTS MAXIMAUX SEMBLE SE CONTRACTER ET A
ETE ESTIME A 14MN. LE NOMBRE T DVORAK PEUT ETRE ESTIME A 4.5 A 12UTC
ET LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 70KT, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST, FAISANT DONC PASSER LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. PAR AILLEURS, LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 0616Z A CONFIRME
L'INTENSITE PREALABLEMENT ESTIMEE A 06Z (60KT). LE SYSTEME EST PASSE
A 80KM A L'EST DE L'ILE D'EUROPA ENTRE 07 ET 08Z, QUI A ETE CONCERNEE
PAR LE PASSAGE DU GRAND FRAIS A LA MI-JOURNEE AVEC UN VENT MOYEN
ATTEIGNANT 29KT. LE CENTRE DU CYCLONE SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT A UN PEU
MOINS DE 200 KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR ET SON MOUVEMENT A DE NOUVEAU
ACCELERE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ENTRE UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT
PLUS AU SUD. IL Y A RELATIVEMENT PEU D'INCERTITUDES SUR LA FORME DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE, PASSANT A ENVIRON 150 KM DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR.
NEANMOINS IL EXISTE UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS SE RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE DU SCENARIO IFS
QUI EST PLUS RAPIDE ET BIEN CALE A L'ETAT INITIAL. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
S'EVACUER AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, NE
PRESENTANT ALORS PLUS DE DANGER POUR LES TERRES HABITEES A CES
ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI DISPOSE JUSQU'A JEUDI D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ELEVE, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES : LE
CISAILLEMENT EST EN BAISSE CE MERCREDI, AVEC UN SYSTEME PASSANT SOUS
LA DORSALE D'ICI JEUDI MATIN, BENEFICIANT AINSI D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
INTENSE EST ENVISAGEE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H. CETTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE NEANMOINS ASSEZ INCERTAINE, AVEC UNE DISPERSION
ASSEZ FORTE ENTRE MODELES. DE PLUS, L'EVENTUALITE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER L'INTENSITE. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER, DEVENANT PLUS IMPACTANT A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A
VENDREDI, CAUSANT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. CETTE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT COMBINEE A DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI
DEVRAIENT AFFAIBLIR ET ASYMETRISER LE SYSTEME, LE FAISANT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

EUROPA :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 A 5M. AMELIORATION CE SOIR.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A LA TOUTE FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE.
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H PRES DU LITTORAL.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES ENTRE 4 ET 6M. DES VAGUES
MAXIMALES DE 10-12M SONT POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 151218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
27.0 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
30.1 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 40.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 32.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 55


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED, WITH A
STRONG EXPANSION OF THE CDO ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
WITHIN AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO APPEAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE 0545Z. THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AND A
SYMMETRIZATION OF CONVECTION COMPARED WITH 00UTC. IN PARTICULAR, THE
GPM-GMI FROM 0518Z SHOWS AN EYE IN 37GHZ AND A SOLID CURVED BAND
WRAPPING MORE THAN 1 TURN ROUND IN 89GHZ. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE, HELPING TO REDUCE THE EFFECTS
OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER CENTERING UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 100 KM NORTHEAST
OF EUROPA AT 06UTC. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS BASED ON PT. A
SAR RCM3 PASS AT 0247Z SHOWS WINDS OF OVER 65KT (1MIN WINDS) OR EVEN
MORE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, ALTHOUGH AN OVERESTIMATE IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT SINCE THEN, THE SYSTEM'S WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AT 06UTC, IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ADT/AIDT/DPRINT CIMSS ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTIES ON THE OVERALL TRACK DESPITE
SOME DISPERSION ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. NO LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER MADAGASCAR. DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE BY
THURSDAY EVENING, AND WILL NO LONGER POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS FROM THEN ON.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT UNTIL THURSDAY, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EASING TODAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PASSING
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, THUS BENEFITING FROM
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
THEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN, BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
CAUSING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. THIS INCREASING WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM,
MAKING IT BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

EUROPA THIS WEDNESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED, POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS (LOW
PROBABILITY).
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 50-100MM IN 12 HOURS. IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP TO
10M. IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.7 S / 40.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 95 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SO: 55 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 16/01/2025 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 0

48H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 32.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 55

60H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

72H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2025 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 55


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
INTENSIFIEE AVEC UNE FORTE EXPANSION DE LA ZONE A SOMMETS FROIDS ET
UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE EN IMAGERIE
INFRAROUGE. UNE AMORCE D'OEIL EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE A COMMENCE A
APPARAITRE DEPUIS 0545Z. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT
UNE FRANCHE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE ET UNE SYMETRISATION DE LA
CONVECTION PAR RAPPORT A 00UTC. EN PARTICULIER, LA GPM-GMI DE 0518Z
MONTRE UN OEIL EN 37GHZ ET UNE SOLIDE BANDE INCURVEE A FORT
ENROULEMENT EN 89GHZ. LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME A TEMPORAIREMENT UN PEU
RALENTI, CE QUI CONTRIBUE A FAIRE BAISSER LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT
DE SUD-EST, CONJOINTEMENT AVEC UN MEILLEUR CENTRAGE SOUS LA DORSALE.
LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME ETAIT A ENVIRON 100 KM AU NORD-EST D'EUROPA A
06UTC. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EST BASEE SUR LE PT. UNE PASSE SAR
RCM3 A 0247Z MONTRE DES VENTS DE PLUS DE 65KT (VENTS 1MIN) VOIRE PLUS
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, MEME SI UNE SURESTIMATION EST POSSIBLE.
ETANT DONNEE L'AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE DEPUIS, LES VENTS DU
SYSTEME SONT ESTIMES A 60 KT (VENTS 10-MIN) A 06UTC, COMPATIBLES AVEC
LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS ADT/AIDT/DPRINT DU CIMSS.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ENTRE UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT
PLUS AU SUD. IL Y A RELATIVEMENT PEU D'INCERTITUDES SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE, MALGRE UNE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. IL
N'EST PAS PREVU D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
S'EVACUER AU SUD DE 30S DE LATITUDE A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, NE
PRESENTANT ALORS PLUS DE DANGER POUR LES TERRES HABITEES A CES
ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI DISPOSE JUSQU'A JEUDI D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ELEVE, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES : LA
CONTRAINTE DE SUD-EST EST EN BAISSE CE MERCREDI, AVEC UN SYSTEME
PASSANT SOUS LA DORSALE D'ICI JEUDI MATIN, BENEFICIANT AINSI D'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL PUIS DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST ENVISAGEE D'ICI JEUDI.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER, DEVENANT PLUS IMPACTANT A PARTIR DE LA
NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, CAUSANT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. CETTE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COMBINEE A DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI DEVRAIENT AFFAIBLIR ET ASYMETRISER LE SYSTEME; LE FAISANT
DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

EUROPA CE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT ATTENDU, TEMPETE POSSIBLE
- CUMUL DE PLUIES DE 50-100MM EN 12H. AMELIORATION LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 A 6M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES
JUSQUA A 10M. AMELIORAION LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - MERCREDI JUSQU'A
JEUDI MATIN:
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE CE MERCREDI JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
- CUMUL DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H PRES DU LITTORAL.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES ENTRE 4 ET 6M. DES VAGUES
MAXIMALES DE 10-12M SONT POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250115065612
2025011506 07S DIKELEDI 012 01 160 15 SATL 015
T000 217S 0411E 070 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 250S 0424E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 277S 0447E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 301S 0482E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 316S 0524E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 331S 0621E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.0S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.7S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.1S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 41.4E.
15JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z
IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011406 169S 398E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011412 178S 397E 55
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011418 191S 401E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011500 203S 405E 60
0725011506 217S 411E 70
0725011506 217S 411E 70
0725011506 217S 411E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.0S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.7S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.1S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 41.4E.
15JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z
IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 150620
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 40.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
28.2 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 40.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 335 SW: 45 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 195 SW: 85 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/20 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BREATHED HEAVILY IN THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY WARMING UP.
THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, AS SHOWN BY THE GCOM-W / AMSR2
MICROWAVE PASS AT 2245Z. THE LATTER, AVAILABLE SHORTLY AFTER THE
ANALYSIS TIME, CONFIRMS THAT DIKEDELI REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT OF THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20KT MOVING IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN NOT ONLY
THE LABORIOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ALSO THE ERODED
STATE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA
AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, CURRENT EVIDENCE POINTS TO A STATUS QUO AT 55KT.

THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE
DIRECTING FLOW BY IMPOSING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN EDGE,
AIDED BY A UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR SEVERAL ANALYSIS TIME NOW.
HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENCE OF AN ALONG-TRACK GUIDANCE SYSTEM HAS
ACCELERATED THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT, ALTERING THE CHRONOLOGY
BY A FEW HOURS. THE PRESENT FORECAST HAS DIKEDELI TRANSITING TOWARDS
TOLIARA PROVINCE ON WEDNESDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS MEAN THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE IN THE CHANNEL, AND A LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, AND IN THIS CONTEXT,
DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY
DURING THE DAY, NO LONGER POSING A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND AT THAT
TIME.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI HAS DECENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL,
COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER VWS COULD SLOW DOWN INTENSIFICATION THIS
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A REGULAR AND
LESS ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, TO PROBABLY REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IN THE MORNING, OR EVEN THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE IN THE EVENING. OF COURSE, THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE WEAKENING OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR NORMALLY EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DISPERSED, AND THE RSMC FORECAST IS FOR
THE MOST INTENSE SCENARIOS. THEREAFTER, FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, THE PROGRESSIVE
INTRUSION OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND THE PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATERS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARDS INTO MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

MPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PROBABLE STORM
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS. IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP TO
12M. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 40.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 335 SO: 45 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2025 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 16/01/2025 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 195 SO: 85 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 185 SO: 100 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 55

72H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2025 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 45

120H: 20/01/2025 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A BEAUCOUP
RESPIRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
QUI SE SONT TEMPORAIREMENT RECHAUFFES. LA POSITION DU CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES EST ESTIME EN BORDURE SUD DU CLUSTER CONVECTIF
PRINCIPAL, COMME LE MONTRE LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE GCOM-W / AMSR2 DE
2245Z. CETTE DERNIERE DISPONIBLE PEU APRES LE RESEAU CONFIRME QUE
DIKEDELI RESTE EN PRISE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT EN
ALTITUDE DE L'ORDRE DE 15 A 20KT ALLANT DANS LE SENS CONTRAIRE DU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, CE QUI EXPLIQUERAIT NON SEULEMENT
L'INTENSIFICATION LABORIEUSE DU SYSTEME, MAIS AUSSI L'ETAT ERRODE DU
COEUR CONVECTIF DANS TOUT LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'INTENSITE EST BASEE
SUR LES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.
TOUTEFOIS LES ELEMENTS ACTUELS PLAIDENT DAVANTAGE POUR UN STATUS QUO
A 55KT.

LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN DEFINIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR EN IMPOSANT SUR SA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE UN FLUX DE
NORD-OUEST, AIDE EGALEMENT PAR UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD. PEU
DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEPUIS QUELQUES RESEAUX
MAINTENANT. ON NOTERA TOUTEFOIS, LA PERSISTANCE D'UN L'ALONG TRACK
DES GUIDANCES, FAISANT ACCELERER LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME, MODIFIANT AINSI LA CHRONOLOGIE DE QUELQUES HEURES. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION FAIT TRANSITER DIKEDELI VERS LA PROVINCE DE
TOLIARA EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES FAIT EVOLUER
LE SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL, ET IL N'EST PAS PREVU D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA
POINTE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES ET DANS CE CONTEXTE, DIKELEDI
DEVRAIT S'EVACUER VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI EN
COURS DE JOURNEE, NE PRESENTANT ALORS PLUS DE DANGER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES A CES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI DISPOSE D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SATISFAISANT, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES.
TOUTEFOIS LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE PERSISTANTE DE SUD-EST POURRAIT
FREINER L'INTENSIFICATION CE MERCREDI. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE TABLE
NEANMOINS POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE ET MOINS BRUTALE AU FIL
DES ECHEANCES, POUR ATTEINDRE PROBABLEMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EN COURS DE MATINEE, VOIRE PROBABLEMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EN COURS DE SOIREE PROCHAINE. BIEN EVIDEMMENT CELA
SERA CONDITIONNE PAR L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
NORMALEMENT PREVU A COURT TERME. UNE FORTE DISPERSION EST A NOTER
DANS LES GUIDANCES ACTUELLES ET LA PREVISION DU CMRS SE SITUE DANS
LES SCENARII LES PLUS INTENSES. PAR LA SUITE, A PARTIR DE JEUDI, SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE, DE L'INTRUSION
PROGRESSIVE D'AIR SEC ASSOCIE, ET LE PASSAGE SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT A
MESURE QU'IL S'ORIENTE VERS L'EST SOUS DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.
DIKELEDI DEVRAIT ALORS PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE UNE STRUCTURE PLUS
ASSYMETRIQUE ET ENTAMER SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AU COURS DU
WEEK-END PROCHAIN.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT ATTENDU A TEMPETE PROBABLE
- CUMUL DE PLUIES DE 100-150MM EN 24H. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 A 6M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES
JUSQUA A 12M. AMELIORAION JEUDI.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE.
- CUMUL DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES ENTRE 4 ET 6M. DES VAGUES
MAXIMALES DE 12M SONT POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 150010
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 40.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 215 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
23.8 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
26.8 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 39.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 39.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.5S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.5S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.3S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 29.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.5S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 40.0E.
14JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250114193628
2025011418 07S DIKELEDI 011 01 175 09 SATL 060
T000 189S 0398E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 215S 0405E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 245S 0418E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 273S 0441E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 296S 0475E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 320S 0559E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 325S 0633E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 39.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 39.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.5S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.5S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.3S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 29.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.5S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 40.0E.
14JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 168S 399E 55
0725011406 168S 399E 55
0725011412 180S 397E 55
0725011412 180S 397E 55
0725011418 189S 398E 60
0725011418 189S 398E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 40.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 32.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/19 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE DEFINED, AND THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER,
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER,
HAVE GRADUALLY WARMED UP. IT WAS NOT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 17UTC, JUST
BEFORE THE ANALYSIS TIME, THAT THIS CONVECTIVE MASS BECAME MORE
ACTIVE. THE SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE PASSES 1349Z SSMIS-F18 AND 1558Z
SSMIS-F17 SHOW AN ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE CORE, ALBEIT
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, DUE TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR GIVEN AS 20KT BY CIMSS. THE RSMC DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY FAVORS A T OF 3.5 WITH THE CI MAINTAINED AT 4.0,
WHICH REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO SATCON AND AIDT ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE LEFT AT THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE FOR 55KT.

THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE STEERING FLOW AT
DIKELEDI, IMPOSING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG ITS WESTERN EDGE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE MALAGASY COAST ON WEDNESDAY, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER THE SEA, AND NO FURTHER LANDINGS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS IS REFLECTED MORE IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, THUS MODIFYING THE
CHRONOLOGY BY +/- 3 HOURS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, AND IN THIS CONTEXT, DIKELEDI
SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY DURING
THE DAY, NO LONGER PRESENTING A DANGER TO INHABITED LAND AT THESE
TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI HAS GOOD OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL,
COUPLED WITH FINE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT
SOUTH-EASTERLY HIGH PRESSURE COULD SLIGHTLY SLOW ITS INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS THEREFORE FOR A REGULAR AND LESS ABRUPT
INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME (EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE ERC), PROBABLY
REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION IN CURRENT GUIDANCE, AND THE RSMC
FORECAST IS FOR THE MOST INTENSE SCENARIOS. THEREAFTER, FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE
GRADUAL INTRUSION OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, THEN DIP TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
DIKELEDI SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE,
WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE CURRENT
120-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

MPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PROBABLE STORM
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS. IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP TO
12M. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 40.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2025 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SO: 130 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SO: 95 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2025 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2025 18 UTC: 32.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

120H: 19/01/2025 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGUARATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVEE S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT DELITEE ET LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DU
CLUSTER CONVECTIF PRINCIPAL SITUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU CENTRE
NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES, S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT RECHAUFFE. CE N'EST
QUE PEU APRES 17UTC, DONC JUSTE AVANT LE RESEAU QUE L'ON NOTE UN
REGAIN D'ACTIVITE DE CETTE MASSE CONVECTIVE. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDE
SUCCESSIVES SSMIS-F18 DE 1349Z ET SSMIS-F17 DE 1558Z MONTRE UNE
ORGANSATION DU COEUR CONVECTIF INTERNE, AVEC TOUTEFOIS UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE
SECTEUR SUD-EST DONNE POUR 20KT SELON LE CIMSS. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK DU CMRS PLAIDE ACTUELLEMENT POUR UN T DE 3.5 AVEC LE MAINTIEN
DU CI A 4.0, CE QUI RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DES ESTIMATIONS DU SATCON ET
DE L'AIDT. LE SYSTEME EST DONC LAISSE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE POUR 55KT.

LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN DEFINIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR A DIKELEDI EN IMPOSANT SUR SA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE UN
FLUX DE NORD-OUEST. PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE. DANS CET OPTIQUE, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHERA DES COTES
MALGACHES EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
D'ALTITUDE, MIS EN PLACE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD. LA GRANDE MAJORITE DES
MODELES FAIT TRANSITER LE SYSTEME SUR MER, ET IL N'EST PLUS PREVU
D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA POINTE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES SE TRADUIT PLUTOT EN VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT MODIFIANT AINSI
LA CHRONOLOGIE DE +/- 3 HEURES. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES ET DANS CE CONTEXTE,
DIKELEDI DEVRAIT S'EVACUER VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD A ECHEANCE DE
JEUDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, NE PRESENTANT PLUS DE DANGER POUR LES
TERRES HABITEES A CES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI DISPOSE D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SATISFAISANT, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES.
TOUTEFOIS LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE PERSISTANTE DE SUD-EST POURRAIT
FREINER LEGEREMENT SON INTENSIFICATION. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
TABLE POUR AINSI POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE ET MOINS BRUTALE
AU FIL DES ECHEANCES (EFFET D'UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL), POUR ATTEINDRE PROBABLEMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI. UNE FORTE DISPERSION EXISTE AUSSI
DANS LES GUIDANCES ACTUELLES ET LA PREVISION DU CMRS SE SITUE DANS
LES SCENARII LES PLUS INTENSES. PAR LA SUITE, A PARTIR DE JEUDI, SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE ET DE L'INTRUSION
PROGRESSIVE D'AIR SEC ASSOCIE, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
GRADUELLEMENT PUIS PLONGEANT VERS LES LATITUDES SUD. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE UNE STRUCTURE PLUS ASSYMETRIQUE TOUT EN
CONSERVANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES SUR LES 120H DE PREVISIONS
ACTUELLES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT ATTENDU A TEMPETE PROBABLE
- CUMUL DE PLUIES DE 100-150MM EN 24H. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 A 6M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES
JUSQUA A 12M. AMELIORAION JEUDI.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE.
- CUMUL DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES ENTRE 4 ET 6M. DES VAGUES
MAXIMALES DE 12M SONT POSSIBLES. AMELIORATION JEUDI.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DES PREVISIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES PAR LE BIAIS DE LEUR SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 141825
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 40.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
22.2 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
25.4 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 39.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/19 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RETAINED ITS CURVED BAND
STRUCTURE. THE PREVIOUSLY DISTANT PRECIPITATION BAND MAY NOW BE
ATTACHED TO DIKELEDI, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OVERALL A LITTLE
LIGHTER AND WARMER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURVATURE OF THE CURVED BAND
STILL DEFINES A T OF 4.0, WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW LAYERS WAS
CLEARLY VISIBLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. DIKELEDI REMAINS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55KT.

THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE
STEERING FLOW AT DIKELEDI, IMPOSING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON ITS
WESTERN EDGE. SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, BRINGING THE PREVIOUS
POSITIONS FORWARD BY ALMOST 3 HOURS, BUT THE DIRECTION REMAINS THE
SAME. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MALAGASY COAST
ON WEDNESDAY, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE
SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER
THE SEA, AND NO FURTHER LANDINGS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF MADAGASCAR. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS REFLECTED MORE IN THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT, THUS MODIFYING THE CHRONOLOGY BY +/- 3 HOURS. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE, AND IN THIS CONTEXT, DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE
SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY, NO LONGER POSING A
DANGER TO INHABITED LAND AT THESE TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL REGAIN ITS STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND, IN
PARTICULAR, A WEAKENING ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER TIME, WITH MORE OR LESS MARKED PHASES OF
INTENSIFICATION (EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL), TO
PROBABLY REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW.
THERE IS ALSO A WIDE DISPERSION IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND THE RSMC
FORECAST IS FOR THE MOST INTENSE SCENARIOS. THEREAFTER, FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, AS UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS IT PLUNGES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
DIKELEDI SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND
WEAKEN STEADILY, WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
THE CURRENT 120-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS, OR EVEN 200-250MM LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY:
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100MM IN 24H, LINKED TO PRECIPITATING BANDS
DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM
- VERY DEGRADED SEA CONDITIONS WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM
WAVES UP TO 8M.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE EXPECTED WITH VERY LIKELY STORM
- TOTAL OF 100-150MM IN 24H
- VERY DEGRADED SEA CONDITIONS WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 6M AND MAXIMUM
WAVES UP TO 12M.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
- VERY DEGRADED SEA CONDITIONS, WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M,
TEMPORARILY REACHING 6M LATE ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM WAVES OF 12M ARE
POSSIBLE.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 39.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 15/01/2025 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 240 SO: 130 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2025 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 45

120H: 19/01/2025 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONSERVE
SA STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA BANDE PRECIPITANTE PRECEDEMMENT
ELOIGNEE PEU ETRE MAINTENANT RATTACHEE A DIKELEDI MAIS L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST GLOBALEMENT UN PEU PLUS CLAIRSEME ET PLUS CHAUDE QU'IL
Y A 6 HEURES. LA COURBURE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE PERMET DE DEFINIR
ENCORE UN T DE 4.0, ALORS QUE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ETAIT BIEN
NOTABLE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES VISIBLES. DIKELEDI RESTE DONC
ENCORE UNE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENT ESTIMES A 55KT.

LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN DEFINIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR A DIKELEDI EN IMPOSANT SUR SA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE UNE
DIRECTION SUD. LEGERE ACCELERATION EN TERME DE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU PRECEDENT CE QUI AVANCE DE PRES DE
3H LES POSITIONS PRECEDENTES MAIS LA DIRECTION RESTE LA MEME. DANS
CET OPTIQUE, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHERA DES COTES MALGACHES EN JOURNEE
DE MERCREDI, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST D'ALTITUDE, MIS EN PLACE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UN TALWEG
CIRCULANT AU SUD. LA GRANDE MAJORITE DES MODELES FAIT TRANSITER LE
SYSTEME SUR MER, ET IL N'EST PLUS PREVU D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA POINTE
SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES SE TRADUIT PLUTOT EN
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT MODIFIANT AINSI LA CHRONOLOGIE DE +/- 3
HEURES. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES ET DANS CE CONTEXTE, DIKELEDI DEVRAIT S'EVACUER
VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE,
NE PRESENTANT PLUS DE DANGER POUR LES TERRES HABITEES A CES
ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI VA RETROUVER UN FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ET
NOTAMMENT UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE FAIBLISSANTE. IL DEVRAIT ALORS
S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT AU FIL DES ECHEANCES, PRESENTANT DES
PHASES D'INTENSIFICATION PLUS OU MOINS MARQUEES (EFFET D'UN POSSIBLE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL), POUR ATTEINDRE PROBABLEMENT LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DEMAIN. UNE FORTE DISPERSION EXISTE AUSSI
DANS LE GUIDANCE D'INTENSITE ET LA PREVISION DU CMRS SE SITUE DANS
LES SCENARII LES PLUS INTENSES. PAR LA SUITE, A PARTIR DE JEUDI, SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE
DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT PUIS PLONGEANT VES LES
LATITUDES SUD, DIKELEDI DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE UNE STRUCTURE
ASSYMETRIQUE ET FAIBLIR REGULIEREMENT TOUT EN CONSERVANT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES SUR LES 120H DE PREVISIONS ACTUELLES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-150MM EN 24H, VOIRE 200-250MM LOCALEMENT LE
LONG DE LA COTE JUSQU'EN COURS DE NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.

JUAN DE NOVA MARDI:
- CUMUL DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H, EN LIEN AVEC DES BANDES
PRECIPITANTES DISSOCIEE DU SYSTEME
- ETAT DE LA MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES SUPERIEURES A
4M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES JUSQUA A 8M.

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT ATTENDU A TEMPETE TRES PROBABLE
- CUMUL DE 100-150MM EN 24H
- ETAT DE LA MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES SUPERIEURES A
6M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES JUSQUA A 12M.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- CUMUL DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE
- ETAT DE LA MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES SUPERIEURES A
4M, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 6M TEMPORAIREMENT EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE
MERCREDI. DES VAGUES MAXIMALES DE 12M SONT POSSIBLES.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 141204
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 39.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250114064029
2025011406 07S DIKELEDI 010 01 180 05 SATL SYNP 020
T000 167S 0399E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 189S 0400E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 213S 0406E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 010 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 243S 0420E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 268S 0441E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 306S 0510E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 317S 0585E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.3S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.3S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.8S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.6S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 39.9E.
14JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011115 127S 501E 90
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011400 162S 399E 60
0725011406 167S 399E 55
0725011406 167S 399E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.3S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.3S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.8S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.6S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 39.9E.
14JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 39.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 32.3 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

IN THE LAST 3 HOURS, DIKELEDI TRANSITS AGAIN OVER THE SEA. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE MAINLY OVER
LAND. A BAND DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN
SECTOR WITHOUT BEING ASSOCIATED WITH DIKELEDI. IN THIS CONTEXT, A
DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN AGAIN BE MADE WITH A T OF 4.0 FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS OF
55KT. DIKELEDI IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT
06UTC. THERE IS A SLIGHT MISMATCH BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.

THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE
STEERING FLOW AT DIKELEDI, IMPOSING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON ITS
WESTERN EDGE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER THE SEA, AND FOR
THE MOMENT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS TRANSLATES INTO
DISPLACEMENT SPEEDS THAT MODIFY THE CHRONOLOGY BY +/- 6 HOURS. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE AND, IN THIS CONTEXT, DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE
SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY, NO LONGER PRESENTING
A DANGER TO INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL EMERGE FROM THE SEA WITH A
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
AND NOTABLY A WEAKENING ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER TIME, WITH MORE OR LESS MARKED PHASES OF
INTENSIFICATION (EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL), TO
PROBABLY REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER, AS IT PLUNGES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES, DIKELEDI SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE ON AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, WEAKENING STEADILY BUT
RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE CURRENT 120-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- STORM FORCE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24H, RISING TO 200-250MM LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF AROUND 1M50 TO 2M
SOUTH OF THE POINT OF IMPACT, BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF QUINGA AND
NORTHERN ANGOCHE.

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY:
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100MM IN 24H, LINKED TO PRECIPITATING BANDS
DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM
- VERY POOR SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP
TO 8M.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE TO STORM LIKELY
- TOTAL OF 100-150MM IN 24H
- VERY BAD SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP
TO 8M.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY
- VERY POOR SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP
TO 8M.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140706
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 39.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2025 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

24H: 15/01/2025 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SO: 130 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2025 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

72H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 32.3 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 55

120H: 19/01/2025 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI TRANSITE A NOUVEAU SUR MER.
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE
INCURVEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR TERRE. UNE BANDE DISSOCIEE DU SYSTEME EST
PRESENTE DANS LE SECTEUR EST SANS ETRE ASSOCIE A DIKELEDI. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK PEUT DE NOUVEAU ETRE FAITE AVEC UN T DE
4.0 ASSEZ PROCHE DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES, LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DE
VENTS MAXIMAUX MOYENS DE 55KT. DIKELEDI EST DONC CLASSE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE A 06UTC. ON PEUT NOTER UN LEGER DECALAGE ENTRE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES ET CELLE D'ALTITUDE.

LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN DEFINIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR A DIKELEDI EN IMPOSANT SUR SA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE UNE
DIRECTION SUD. EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
RAPPROCHER DES COTES MALGACHES, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
D'ALTITUDE, MIS EN PLACE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD. LA GRANDE MAJORITE DES
MODELES FAIT TRANSITER LE SYSTEME SUR MER, ET NE PREVOIT PAS POUR LE
MOMENT D'EVENTUEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA POINTE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES SE TRADUIT PLUTOT EN VIESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
MODIFIANT AINSI LA CHRONOLOGIE DE LORS DE +/- 6 HEURES. LA PREVISION
DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
ET DANS CE CONTEXTE, DIKELEDI DEVRAIT S'EVACUER VERS LES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, NE PRESENTANT PLUS
DE DANGER POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI RESSORTANT SUR MER VA RETROUVER UN
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES ET NOTAMMENT UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE
FAIBLISSANTE. IL DEVRAIT ALORS S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT AU FIL
DES ECHEANCES, PRESENTANT DES PHASES D'INTENSIFICATION PLUS OU MOINS
MARQUEES (EFFET D'UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL), POUR
ATTEINDRE PROBABLEMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DEMAIN.
PAR LA SUITE, PLONGEANT VES LES LATITUDES SUD, DIKELEDI DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE UNE STRUCTURE ASSYMETRIQUE ET FAIBLIR
REGULIEREMENT TOUT EN CONSERVANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES SUR
LES 120H DE PREVISIONS ACTUELLES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA) :
- FORCE TEMPETE JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN.
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-150MM EN 24H, VOIRE 200-250MM LOCALEMENT LE
LONG DE LA COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN. SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M50 A
2M AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT, ENTRE LES VILLES DE QUINGA ET LE NORD
D'ANGOCHE.

JUAN DE NOVA MARDI:
- CUMUL DE 100MM EN 24H, EN LIEN AVEC DES BANDES PRECIPITANTES
DISSOCIEE DU SYSTEME
- ETAT DE LA MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES SUPERIEURES A
4M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES JUSQUA A 8M.

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE PROBABLE
- CUMUL DE 100-150MM EN 24H
- ETAT DE LA MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES SUPERIEURES A
4M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES JUSQUA A 8M.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE
- ETAT DE LA MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES MOYENNES SUPERIEURES A
4M ET DES VAGUES MAXIMALES JUSQUA A 8M.
- LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 140559
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 39.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS OF
THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
18.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST
SECTOR DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 140010
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 39.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
18.0 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250113194734
2025011318 07S DIKELEDI 009 01 230 05 SATL 060
T000 155S 0402E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 168S 0398E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 186S 0398E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 210S 0403E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 237S 0413E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 284S 0452E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 309S 0517E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 318S 0565E 045 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.8S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.0S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.4S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 40.1E.
13JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
61 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 981 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011218 143S 435E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011300 145S 426E 70
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011306 149S 411E 80
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011312 152S 406E 90
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
0725011318 155S 402E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.8S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.0S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.4S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 40.1E.
13JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
61 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 981 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 40.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

120H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKEDELI'S CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED FURTHER
UNTIL 09UTC, WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. A
HOT SPOT WITHIN THIS STRUCTURE EVEN EMERGED SHORTLY BEFORE 0915UTC AS
IT APPROACHED MOZAMBIQUE. DIKEDELI LANDED JUST SOUTH OF ILHA DE
MOCAMBIQUE IN NAMPULA PROVINCE AROUND 1200UTC. THE MICROWAVE PASS OF
THE GCOM-W - AMSR2 FROM 1109Z SHOWS A SLIGHT TILT OF THE STRUCTURE ON
THE VERTICAL, WHICH CAN MISLEAD THE ESTIMATION OF THE POSITION BASED
ONLY ON THE CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGE. IT ALSO SHOWS A CLEAR
IMPROVEMENT IN THE EYE WALL AT 85GHZ. THE RSMC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE AT THE TIME OF LANDING POINTS TO AN INTENSITY OF 75KT, ALSO
VERY CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATES OF AMERICAN AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE CIMSS
DATA.

THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER MOZAMBIQUE'S
LANDMASS, MOVING SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND RE-EMERGING IN THE CHANNEL
ON TUESDAY MORNING, CARRIED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. FROM
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MALAGASY COAST,
GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A DISTANT TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. GUIDANCES REMAIN WIDELY DISPERSED AT THESE TIMES, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING THE
CHANNEL, AND DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE ANY POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE MAIN ISLAND. HOWEVER, THE PRESENT FORECAST BRINGS
THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS
AVAILABLE, AND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SYSTEM'S FINAL
TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI WILL WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE MOZAMBICAN LANDS. HOWEVER, AS ITS TERRESTRIAL
EXPERIENCE IS LIMITED IN TIME (NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS), DIKEDELI
SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS SOLID INTERNAL CONSTITUTION. IT SHOULD REGAIN A
SATISFACTORY OCEANIC ENERGY POTENTIAL WHEN IT HEADS OUT TO SEA ON
TUESDAY MORNING, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE
PERSISTENT ALTITUDE VWS. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ONCE AGAIN REACHING TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS ON WEDNESDAY, DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER. MOREOVER, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, A
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE
ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT IMPACT
LEVEL, THEN STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS, OR EVEN 200-250MM LOCALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON MONDAY AND UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF
AROUND 1M50 TO 2M SOUTH OF THE POINT OF IMPACT, BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF
QUINGA AND NORTH ANGOCHE.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.

JUAN DE NOVA MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN - 100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN 24H.
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALES TO STORMS LIKELY, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOT RULED OUT A
PRIORI.
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 40.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 14/01/2025 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 15/01/2025 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30

72H: 16/01/2025 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2025 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

120H: 18/01/2025 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DIKEDELI S'EST ENCORE AMELIOREE JUSQU'A 09UTC AVEC DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX SE REFROIDISSANT ACCOMPAGNES DE NOMBREUX IMPACTS DE FOUDRE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. UN POINT CHAUD AU SEIN DE
CETTE STRUCTURE A MEME FINI PAR EMERGER PEU AVANT 0915UTC A
L'APPROCHE DES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. DIKEDELI A FINI PAR ATTERRIR UN
PEU AU SUD DE ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA VERS
1200UTC. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE DE DE LA GCOM-W - AMSR2 DE 1109Z
PRESENTE UN LEGER TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA VERTICALE POUVANT
INDUIRE EN ERREUR L'ESTIMATION DE LA POSITION BASA E UNIQUEMENT SUR
L'IMAGE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE. ELLE MONTRE EGALEMENT UNE NETTE
AMELIORATION DU MUR DE L'OEIL EN 85GHZ. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE DU CMRS AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE POINTE UNE INTENSITE
DE 75KT, TRES PROCHE A GALEMENT DES ESTIMATIONS DES AGENCES
AMERICAINES ET DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS.

LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES SUR LES
TERRES MOZAMBICAINES, EN PRENANT UNE DIRECTION VERS LE SUD AU COURS
DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE POUR RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL MARDI MATIN, PORTE
PAR LE FLUX DE NORD EN BORDURE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPO SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI / JEUDI, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT SE RAPPROCHER DES CA TES MALGACHES, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DE
NORD-OUEST D'ALTITUDE, MIS EN PLACE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICAL DE
MOYENNE TROPO ET UN LOINTAIN THALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD. LES GUIDANCES
RESTENT LARGEMENT DISPERSEES A CES ECHEANCES, TOUTEFOIS LA GRANDES
MAJORITA DES MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE FAIT TRANSITER LE
SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL, ET NE PRA VOIT PAS POUR LE MOMENT D'EVENTUEL
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA POINTE SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION RAPPROCHE TOUTEFOIS LE SYSTEME DE MADAGASCAR PAR RAPPORT A
LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, ET IL DEMEURE ENCORE A CETTE
HEURE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKEDELI VA S'AFFAIBLIR A COURT TERME PAR
INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. CEPENDANT SON EXPERIENCE
TERRESTRE ETANT LIMITEE DANS LE TEMPS (PAS PLUS DE 12H), DIKEDELI
DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SA SOLIDE CONSTITUTION INTERNE. IL DEVRAIT
RETROUVER UN POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE SATISFAISANT LORS DE SA
RESSORTIE EN MER MARDI MATIN, COUPLE A DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES MALGRA UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE PERSISTANTE. IL
DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE GRADUELLEMENT SON INTENSIFICATION AU FIL DES
JOURS POUR ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL MARDI ET
PROBABLEMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EN JOURNEE DE
MERCREDI, ET CE MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LEGEREMENT MOINS
FAVORABLE PAR LA SUITE. PAR AILLEURS, SELON L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME,
UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL LORS DE SA PHASE MATURE
POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA) :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ET OURAGAN CE LUNDI APRES-MIDI AU NIVEAU DE
L'IMPACT PUIS FORCE TEMPETE AU COURS DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.
- FORTES PLUIES A PLUIES LOCALEMENT DILUVIENNES LUNDI JUSQU'A MARDI.
CUMULS DE 100-150MM EN 24H, VOIRE 200-250MM LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA
COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M LUNDI ET JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN. SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE
DE 1M50 A 2M AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT, ENTRE LES VILLES DE QUINGA ET
LE NORD D'ANGOCHE.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M PROBABLES.

JUAN DE NOVA LUNDI ET MARDI:
- FORTES PLUIES - CUMUL DE 100MM EN 24H.
- VAGUES DE 4M POSSIBLES.

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE PROBABLES, VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN NON EXCLUS
A PRIORI.
- FORTES PLUIES (CUMUL DE 100-150MM).
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M PROBABLES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 131226
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 971 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 40.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 10 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
15 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 20 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250113074906
2025011306 07S DIKELEDI 008 01 260 16 SATL SYNP 025
T000 148S 0411E 070 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 157S 0399E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 169S 0393E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 187S 0394E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 209S 0399E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 233S 0410E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 255S 0425E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 289S 0466E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.7S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.9S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.3S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.5S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 28.9S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 40.8E.
13JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
26 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011200 131S 475E 70
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011206 134S 462E 65
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011212 140S 448E 60
0725011218 142S 437E 70
0725011218 142S 437E 70
0725011218 142S 437E 70
0725011300 145S 427E 70
0725011300 145S 427E 70
0725011300 145S 427E 70
0725011306 148S 411E 70
0725011306 148S 411E 70
0725011306 148S 411E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 41.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AS SHOWN BY THE MICROWAVE PASS SSMIS-F17 AT 0338Z.
THE LATTER SHOWS A WELL-FORMED EYE AT 85GHZ, SHOWING SOLID INTERNAL
ORGANIZATION, WITH CONVECTION MUCH MORE INTENSE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, AND ON
A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE, PUTTING DIKEDELI AT THE
MINIMUM STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THIS VALUE APPEARS TO
BE SLIGHTLY OVERESTIMATED IN VIEW OF THE ASCAT-B PASS AT 0559Z, WHICH
FELL SHORTLY AFTER ANALISIS TIME. IN FACT, THE ASCAT GAVE A DEBIASED
MAXIMUM INTENSITY CLOSER TO 60KT. THIS INFORMATION (POSITION / WIND
EXTENSIONS / INTENSITY) WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY IN THE BESTRACK
TRACK.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MOZAMBICAN
COAST TODAY ON A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
FORESEE A LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA, BUT THIS OPTION IS
NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDED, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE AT +12/18H.
FROM TUESDAY, DIKEDELI SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TEMPORARILY TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, CARRIED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN.
FROM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE MID
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A DISTANT UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE
REMAINS WIDELY DISPERSED AT THESE SCALES, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO TRANSIT THROUGH THE
CHANNEL, AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING ANY LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH VERY GOOD OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL DESPITE
PERSISTENT MODERATE UPPER VWS, DIKELEDI SHOULD BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS THE DAYS GO BY. HOWEVER, THE
OHC IS SET TO DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS, ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY, WHICH
COULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER,
IF IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFRICAN COAST, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING ITS
MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS STILL EXPECTED LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA AND
ANTISRANANA PROVINCES, OF THE ORDER OF 100-150 MM (LOC 150-200 MM
OVER THE RELIEF)

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- RISK OF STORM FORCE WIND OR EVEN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN MONDAY TO TUESDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS, OR 200-300MM LOCALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

JUAN DE NOVA MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
- HEAVY RAINS - 100MM IN 24 HOURS.
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE TO STORM POSSIBLE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED.
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130651
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 41.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2025 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2025 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2025 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2025 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2025 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2025 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2025 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE AU NORD DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, COMME LE MONTRE LA
PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS-F17 DE 0338Z. CETTE DERNIERE MONTRE D'AILLEURS
UN OEIL BIEN FORME EN 85GHZ, MONTANT AINSI UNE ORGANISATION INTERNE
SOLIDE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION BEAUCOUP PLUS INTENSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
NORD. L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE EST BASE SUR CETTE ANALYSE, ET SUR
UN BLEND DES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES, PLACANT AINSI
DIKEDELI AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. CETTE VALEUR SEMBLE
TOUTEFOIS LEGEREMENT SURESTIMEE AU VU DE LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 0559Z
TOMBEE PEU APRES L'HEURE DU RESEAU. L'ASCAT DONNANT EN EFFET UNE
INTENSITE MAXIMALE DEBIAISEE PLUS PROCHE DE 60KT. CETTE INFORMATION
(POSITION / EXTENSIONS DE VENT / INTENSITE) SERA REACTUALISEE
PROCHAINEMENT DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE BESTRACK.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TENGANTER AUJOURD'HUI
LES CA TES MOZAMBICAINES DANS UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE NE PREVOIT PAS D'ATERRISSAGE SUR LA PROVINCE DE
NAMPULA, TOUTEFOIS CETTE OPTION N'EST PAS TOTALEMENT EXCLUE, AU VU DE
LA DISPERSION DES GUIDANCES A +12/18H. A PARTIR MARDI DIKEDELI
DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE TEMPORAIREMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS
LE SUD-SUD-EST, PORTE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD EN BORDURE OCCIDENTALE DE
LA DORSALE SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI / JEUDI, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT SE RAPPROCHER DES CA TES MALGACHES, GUIDE PAR LE
FLUX DE NORD-OUEST D'ALTITUDE, MIS EN PLACE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICAL DE MOYENNE TROPO ET UN LOINTAIN THALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD.
LES GUIDANCES RESTENT LARGEMENT DISPERSEES A CES ECHEANCES, TOUTEFOIS
LA GRANDES MAJORITA DES MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE FAIT
TRANSITER LE SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL, ET NE PRA VOIT PAS POUR LE MOMENT
D'EVENTUEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA POINTE SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE TRES SATISFAISANT
MALGRA UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE D'ALTITUDE PERSISTANTE, DIKELEDI
DEVRAIT BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR CONTINUER SON
INTENSIFICATION AU FIL DES JOURS. TOUTEFOIS LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT DECROITRE PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, MALGRA TOUT
LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES DEVRAIENT NETTEMENT S'AMELIORER CE QUI
POURRAIT L'AMENER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CEPENDANT SI
IL Y INTERACTION AVEC DES COTES AFRICAINES L'INTENSIFICATION SE
FERAIT PLUS LENTEMENT. PAR AILLEURS, UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL LORS DE SA PHASE MATURE POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON
INTENSITE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR :
- FORTES PLUIES ENCORE ATTENDUES LOCALEMENT SUR LE LITTORAL DES
PROVINCES DE MAHAJANGA ET ANTISRANANA DE L'ORDRE DE 100-150 MM (LOC
150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF)

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- RISQUE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE VOIRE OURAGAN POSSIBLE LUNDI
JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN.
- FORTES PLUIES A PLUIES LOCALEMENT DILUVIENNES LUNDI JUSQU'A MARDI.
CUMULS DE 100-150MM EN 24H VOIRE 200-300MM LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA
COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) - A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES

JUAN DE NOVA LUNDI ET MARDI:
- FORTES PLUIES - CUMUL DE 100MM EN 24H.
- VAGUES DE 4M POSSIBLES.


EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE POSSIBLE, VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN NON EXCLUS.
- FORTES PLUIES (CUMUL DE 100-150MM).
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES.=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.7S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.9S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.3S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.5S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 28.9S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 40.8E.
13JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
26 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 130612
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 41.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 270 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/14 AT 06 UTC:
17.3 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130237 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
THE SYSTEM ADOPTING A SHEARED PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE GCOM MICROWAVE
PICTURE FROM 2256Z SHOWS A BETTER-LOOKING RING THAN BEFORE. DVORAK'S
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY AT 65KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SOME OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1852Z MEASURES
WINDS OF ONLY 45KT. THE SAR AT 1521Z MEASURES AN INTENSITY OF 60KT.
THE RSMC THEREFORE PROPOSES AN ESTIMATE OF 55-60 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRAJECTORY, BEFORE CURVING AROUND THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER, A LANDING CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, THIS IS THE SCENARIO
WE'VE CHOSEN, OR PASS WELL INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY,
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A TRACK ALONG THE
CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, SINCE THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL
TRACK, BUT WITH THE SCENARIO CHOSEN, DIKELEDI SHOULD BRUSH UP AGAINST
MOZAMBIQUE AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
INTENSITY. AFTER THAT, ITS TRACK LEAVES THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW SHEAR,
EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) TO
INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE OR EVEN VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (50-100MM) ALONG THE COAST OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND OVER THE ANTSIRANANA RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- INTENSE RAIN STILL POSSIBLE (TOTALS OF AROUND 50MM) UNDER THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY..

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S
PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- RISK OF STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
150-200MM OR EVEN 250MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE TO STORM POSSIBLE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130237 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2025 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2025 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A PEU EVOLUEE
ET LE SYSTEME ADOPTE UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. CEPENDANT L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 2256Z MONTRE UN ANNEAU PRESENTANT UN MEILLEUR
ASPECT QUE PRECEDEMENT. L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK ESTIME L'INTENSITE A
65KT, CE QUI EST EN ACCORD AVEC CERTAINES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES.
CEPENDANT LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1852Z MESURE DES VENTS DE SEULEMENT 45KT.
LA SAR DE 1521Z MESURE QUANT A ELLE UNE INTENSITE DE 60KT. LE CMRS
PROPOSE DONC UN ESTIMATION DE 55-60 KT.


EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE LUNDI
EN RASANT LES CA TES MOZAMBICAINES. UN ATERRISSAGE N'EST TOUTEFOIS
PAS EXCLU. IL Y A ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES. EN EFFET,
SELON L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG PRESENT SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE DIKELEDI POURRAIT IMPACTER LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR
LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA LUNDI, C'EST D'AILLEURS CE SCENARIO QUI EST
RETENU, MAIS ELLE POURRAIT AUSSI PASSER NETTEMENT PLUS AU CENTRE DU
CANAL. DE MEME, A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE RESTE
UN PASSAGE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS UN SCENARIO PASSANT SUR LA
POINTE SUD DE LA GRANDE TERRE N'EST PAS EXCLU. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, AVEC UN CISAISLLEMENT EN BAISSE ET DES EAUX
CHAUDES, DIKELEDI VA BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR
CONTINUER SON INTENSIFICATION. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR
L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DU SYSTEME CAR CELA DEPENDRA DE SA TRAJECTOIRE
FINALE MAIS AVEC LE SCENARIO RETENU DIKELEDI DEVRAIT FROLER LE
MOZAMBIQUE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN BAISSANT UN PEU EN
INTENSITE. ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE S'ECARTE DES COTES AFRICAINES ET IL
DEVRAIT BENEFICIER D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR
OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL) POUR S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE VOIRE TRES INTENSE. CEPENDANT SI IL Y INTERACTION
AVEC DES COTES AFRICAINES L'INTENSIFICATION SE FERA PLUS LENTEMENT.
PAR AILLEURS, UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL LORS DE SA
PHASE MATURE POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON INTENSITE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR :

- FORTES PLUIES SUR LE LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA ET SUR LE
RELIEF DE ANTSIRANANA POSSIBLES CE MATIN (50-100MM).

MAYOTTE :
- PLUIES INTENSES ENCORE POSSIBLES (CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 50MM) SOUS
LES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES.
- AVEC LA ELOIGNEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME, LE RISQUE DE FORTES
PLUIES DEVRAIENT FAIBLIR DEMAIN ET DEFINITIVEMENT MARDI.

COMORES :
- LES ILES DEVRAIENT ETRE SOUS LA INFLUENCE DE LA PERIPHERIE DU
SYSTEME.
- FORTES PLUIES CETTE NUIT EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES
DE 100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- RISQUE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE VOIRE OURAGAN POSSIBLE POUR LUNDI
APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES A PLUIES DILUVIENNES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE LUNDI.
CUMULS DE 150-200MM VOIRE 250MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. 100-150 MM EN 24H.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE, VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE NON EXCLUS
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES

JUAN DE NOVA MARDI ET MERCREDI:
- FORTES PLUIES (CUMUL DE 100-150MM).
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE.

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- FORTES PLUIES (CUMUL DE 100-150MM).
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES.
- COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE POSSIBLE, VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN NON EXCLUS.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
THE SYSTEM ADOPTING A SHEARED PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE GCOM MICROWAVE
PICTURE FROM 2256Z SHOWS A BETTER-LOOKING RING THAN BEFORE. DVORAK'S
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY AT 65KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SOME OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1852Z MEASURES
WINDS OF ONLY 45KT. THE SAR AT 1521Z MEASURES AN INTENSITY OF 60KT.
THE RSMC THEREFORE PROPOSES AN ESTIMATE OF 60 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRAJECTORY, BEFORE CURVING AROUND THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER, A LANDING CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, THIS IS THE SCENARIO
WE'VE CHOSEN, OR PASS WELL INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY,
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A TRACK ALONG THE
CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, SINCE THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL
TRACK, BUT WITH THE SCENARIO CHOSEN, DIKELEDI SHOULD BRUSH UP AGAINST
MOZAMBIQUE AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
INTENSITY. AFTER THAT, ITS TRACK LEAVES THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW SHEAR,
EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) TO
INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE OR EVEN VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (50-100MM) ALONG THE COAST OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND OVER THE ANTSIRANANA RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- INTENSE RAIN STILL POSSIBLE (TOTALS OF AROUND 50MM) UNDER THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY..

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S
PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- RISK OF STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
150-200MM OR EVEN 250MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE TO STORM POSSIBLE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130216
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 14/01/2025 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2025 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2025 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A PEU EVOLUEE
ET LE SYSTEME ADOPTE UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. CEPENDANT L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 2256Z MONTRE UN ANNEAU PRESENTANT UN MEILLEUR
ASPECT QUE PRECEDEMENT. L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK ESTIME L'INTENSITE A
65KT, CE QUI EST EN ACCORD AVEC CERTAINES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES.
CEPENDANT LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1852Z MESURE DES VENTS DE SEULEMENT 45KT.
LA SAR DE 1521Z MESURE QUANT A ELLE UNE INTENSITE DE 60KT. LE CMRS
PROPOSE DONC UN ESTIMATION DE 60 KT.


EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE LUNDI
EN RASANT LES CA TES MOZAMBICAINES. UN ATERRISSAGE N'EST TOUTEFOIS
PAS EXCLU. IL Y A ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES. EN EFFET,
SELON L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG PRESENT SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE DIKELEDI POURRAIT IMPACTER LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR
LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA LUNDI, C'EST D'AILLEURS CE SCENARIO QUI EST
RETENU, MAIS ELLE POURRAIT AUSSI PASSER NETTEMENT PLUS AU CENTRE DU
CANAL. DE MEME, A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE RESTE
UN PASSAGE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS UN SCENARIO PASSANT SUR LA
POINTE SUD DE LA GRANDE TERRE N'EST PAS EXCLU. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, AVEC UN CISAISLLEMENT EN BAISSE ET DES EAUX
CHAUDES, DIKELEDI VA BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR
CONTINUER SON INTENSIFICATION. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR
L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DU SYSTEME CAR CELA DEPENDRA DE SA TRAJECTOIRE
FINALE MAIS AVEC LE SCENARIO RETENU DIKELEDI DEVRAIT FROLER LE
MOZAMBIQUE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN BAISSANT UN PEU EN
INTENSITE. ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE S'ECARTE DES COTES AFRICAINES ET IL
DEVRAIT BENEFICIER D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR
OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL) POUR S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE VOIRE TRES INTENSE. CEPENDANT SI IL Y INTERACTION
AVEC DES COTES AFRICAINES L'INTENSIFICATION SE FERA PLUS LENTEMENT.
PAR AILLEURS, UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL LORS DE SA
PHASE MATURE POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON INTENSITE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR :

- FORTES PLUIES SUR LE LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA ET SUR LE
RELIEF DE ANTSIRANANA POSSIBLES CE MATIN (50-100MM).

MAYOTTE :
- PLUIES INTENSES ENCORE POSSIBLES (CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 50MM) SOUS
LES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES.
- AVEC LA ELOIGNEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME, LE RISQUE DE FORTES
PLUIES DEVRAIENT FAIBLIR DEMAIN ET DEFINITIVEMENT MARDI.

COMORES :
- LES ILES DEVRAIENT ETRE SOUS LA INFLUENCE DE LA PERIPHERIE DU
SYSTEME.
- FORTES PLUIES CETTE NUIT EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES
DE 100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- RISQUE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE VOIRE OURAGAN POSSIBLE POUR LUNDI
APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES A PLUIES DILUVIENNES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE LUNDI.
CUMULS DE 150-200MM VOIRE 250MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. 100-150 MM EN 24H.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE, VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE NON EXCLUS
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES

JUAN DE NOVA MARDI ET MERCREDI:
- FORTES PLUIES (CUMUL DE 100-150MM).
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE.

EUROPA A PARTIR DE MERCREDI :
- FORTES PLUIES (CUMUL DE 100-150MM).
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES.
- COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE POSSIBLE, VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN NON EXCLUS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 130007
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250112204429
2025011218 07S DIKELEDI 007 01 250 09 SATL 025
T000 144S 0439E 070 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 153S 0420E 080 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 161S 0408E 090 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 174S 0401E 095 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 193S 0401E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 240S 0414E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 283S 0449E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 320S 0514E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.1S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.3S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.3S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 43.4E.
12JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
186 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
121800Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 133S 475E 70
0725011200 133S 475E 70
0725011200 133S 475E 70
0725011206 136S 462E 65
0725011206 136S 462E 65
0725011206 136S 462E 65
0725011212 141S 448E 55
0725011212 141S 448E 55
0725011218 144S 439E 70
0725011218 144S 439E 70
0725011218 144S 439E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 44.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY,
WITH THE SYSTEM ADOPTING A CENTER-IN-MASS PATTERN. THE F16 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 1518Z SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION WITH NO CLEAR RING.
DVORAK'S ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY AT 65KT, BUT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SUGGEST ESTIMATES OF THE ORDER OF 50 KT. THE RSMC SUGGESTS
AN ESTIMATE OF AROUND 60 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWEST, BEFORE CURVING TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, A LANDING CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. IT WILL THEN TURN
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, OR PASS WELL
INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY, IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT
A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A TRACK ALONG THE CENTRE OF THE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, AS THE SHEAR DROPS AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS
FINAL TRACK. IN FACT, WITH A CENTRAL TRAJECTORY LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED
BY THE RSMC, THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE AFRICAN COAST
AND WILL NOT BE DISTURBED BY LAND TO INTENSIFY TO THE STAGE OF AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE,
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION
WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A
POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD
CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- GALE EXTENDING TO CAP SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (50-80MM) ALONG THE COAST OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND OVER THE ANTSIRANANA RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT (100-120MM/24H) UNDER THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE WIND AND RISK OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD EASE TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY.

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S
PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. RISK OF STORM-FORCE OR HURRICANE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. 150-200 MM IN 24H. LOCALLY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 44.1 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2025 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2025 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 14/01/2025 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 14/01/2025 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 15/01/2025 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 260 SO: 140 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 17/01/2025 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
LEGEREMENT AMELIORE ET LE SYSTEME ADOPTE UNE CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE
NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F16 DE 1518Z MONTRE UNE
CONFIGURATION CONVECTIVE SANS ANNEAU NET. L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK ESTIME
L'INTENSITE A 65KT MAIS LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES PROPOSENT DES
ESTIMATIONS DE L'ORDRE DE 50 KT. LE CMRS PROPOSE UN ESTIMATION AUTOUR
DE 60 KT.


EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE LUNDI
VERS LES CA TES MOZAMBICAINES. UN ATERRISSAGE N'EST TOUTEFOIS PAS
EXCLU. IL Y A ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES. EN EFFET,
SELON L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG PRESENT SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE DIKELEDI POURRAIT IMPACTER LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR
LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA LUNDI OU PASSER NETTEMENT PLUS AU CENTRE DU
CANAL. DE MEME, A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE RESTE
UN PASSAGE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS UN SCENARIO PASSANT SUR LA
POINTE SUD DE LA GRANDE TERRE N'EST PAS EXCLU. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, AVEC UN CISAISLLEMENT EN BAISSE ET DES EAUX
CHAUDES, DIKELEDI VA BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR
CONTINUER SON INTENSIFICATION. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DU SYSTEME CAR CELA DEPENDRA DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE FINALE. EN EFFET, AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE CENTRALE COMME
CELLE PROPOSEE PAR LE CMRS, LE SYSTEME RESTE RELATIVEMENT LOIN DES
COTES AFRICAINES ET NE SERA PAS PERTURBE PAR LES TERRES POUR
S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR
OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL). CEPENDANT SI IL Y INTERACTION AVEC DES COTES
AFRICAINES L'INTENSIFICATION SE FERA PLUS LENTEMENT. PAR AILLEURS, UN
POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL LORS DE SA PHASE MATURE
POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON INTENSITE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE LE LONG DE LA
PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA ENCORE POSSIBLE DANS LA NUIT.
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LE LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA ET SUR LE
RELIEF DE ANTSIRANANA POSSIBLES DANS LA NUIT (50-80MM).

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'EN FIN DE NUIT (100-120MM/24H) SOUS LES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES.
- AVEC LA ELOIGNEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME, LE VENT ET LE RISQUE DE
FORTES PLUIES DEVRAIENT FAIBLIR DEMAIN ET DEFINITIVEMENT MARDI.

COMORES :
- LES ILES DEVRAIENT ETRE SOUS LA INFLUENCE DE LA PERIPHERIE DU
SYSTEME.
- FORTES PLUIES CETTE NUIT EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES
DE 100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, JUSQU'EN NUIT SUIVANTE.
RISQUE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE VOIRE OURAGAN POSSIBLE POUR LUNDI
APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE LUNDI. 150-200 MM EN 24H.
POSSIBLES LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A MARDI
MATIN.

SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) A PARTIR DE MERCREDI:
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. 100-150 MM EN 24H.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE, VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE NON EXCLUS
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 121817
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 44.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE ESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 18 UTC:
15.8 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 121211
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 44.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 00 UTC:
14.9 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250112073431
2025011206 07S DIKELEDI 006 01 255 13 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 136S 0462E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 145S 0441E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 153S 0424E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 165S 0410E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 176S 0403E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 211S 0406E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 261S 0428E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 298S 0469E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 46.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 46.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.5S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.5S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.1S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.1S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 45.7E.
12JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
326 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z AND 130900Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011106 126S 517E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011200 133S 475E 70
0725011200 133S 475E 70
0725011200 133S 475E 70
0725011206 136S 462E 65
0725011206 136S 462E 65
0725011206 136S 462E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 006 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 46.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 46.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.5S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.5S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.1S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.1S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 45.7E.
12JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
326 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
120600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 120629 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 46.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 18 UTC:
14.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 06 UTC:
15.7 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 120612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2025
AT 0300 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/01/2025 AT 0300 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 47.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0300 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

WINDS RADII NIL
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:


OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 48.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI LANDED ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR AT AROUND 1630 UTC BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF ANTSIRANANA AND
VOHEMAR, AND EMERGED CLOSE TO NOSY-BE A FEW HOURS LATER. THE PASSAGE
OVER THE MALAGASY LANDMASS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ITS INTENSITY AND
DAMAGED ITS CONFIGURATION. IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM WITH WINDS OF 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO GRADUALLY TILT ITS
TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING
ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK
COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON
MONDAY, OR PASS MUCH FURTHER INTO THE CENTER THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY,
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, MOVING CLOSER TO THE AROME
SCENARIO WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE OVER MADAGASCAR. NOW BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CIRCULATING IN VERY WARM WATERS AND A
HUMID ENVIRONMENT, ENABLING IT TO RESTRUCTURE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, THE
WIND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION A LITTLE THIS
MORNING, BUT DIKELEDI WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL TRACK. IN
FACT, WITH A CENTRAL TRACK LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED BY THE RSMC, THERE
ARE FEW OBSTACLES TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF DIKELEDI UP TO THE STAGE
OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS
INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN
ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE
PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE STILL IN PROGRESS OVER WESTERN ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE,
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GALE EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE
ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL THIS EVENING, THEN POSSIBLE EXTENSION
NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS UNDERWAY OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100MM POSSIBLE BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY.
HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE POSSIBLE TODAY.
100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

MAYOTTE :
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY UNDER THE PERIPHERAL BANDS.
TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 100-150 MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN TODAY AROUND THE SYSTEM. CUMULUS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H
LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. REDUCED RISK OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. 100-200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120014
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 48.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SO: 120 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2025 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 35

24H: 13/01/2025 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 14/01/2025 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 17/01/2025 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A ATTERRI SUR LA POINTE
NORD DE MADAGASCAR VERS 1630 UTC ENTRE LES VILLES DE ANTSIRANANA ET
DE VOHEMAR ET IL EST RESSORTI PROCHE DE NOSY-BE QUELQUES HEURES PLUS
TARD. LE PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES MALGACHES A CONSIDERABLEMENT
DIMINUA SON INTENSITE ET ABIMER SA CONFIGURATION. IL EST ESTIMA AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE 45KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INCLINER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. IL
VA PAR LA SUITE EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST
MARDI. IL Y A UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES A PARTIR DE LUNDI. EN
EFFET, SELON L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG PRESENT SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE,
LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DIKELEDI POURRAIT IMPACTER LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE
SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA LUNDI OU PASSER NETTEMENT PLUS AU CENTRE
DU CANAL. DE MEME, A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE
RESTE UN PASSAGE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS UN SCENARIO PASSANT SUR LA
POINTE SUD DE LA GRANDE TERRE N'EST PAS EXCLU. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, EN SE
RAPPROCHANT DU SCENARIO D'AROME FAISANT UN VIRAGE DAVANTAGE SUR LE
CENTRE DU CANAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DIKELEDI S'EST CONSIDERABLEMENT AFFAIBLI SUITE
A SON PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES MALGACHES. MAINTENANT DE NOUVEAU
AU DESSUS DES EAUX DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR
DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE LUI PERMETTANT DE SE
RESTRUCTURER RAPIDEMENT. CEPENDANT LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT VA DANS UN
TOUT PREMIER TEMPS UN PEU LIMITER SON INTENSIFICATION CE MATIN, PUIS
BAISSANT LA NUIT PROCHAINE DIKELEDI VA RAPIDEMENT S'INTENSIFIER. IL
EXISTE ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME CAR
CELA DEPENDRA DE SA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE. EN EFFET, AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE CENTRALE COMME CELLE PROPOSEE PAR LE CMRS, IL EXISTE PEU
DE FREINS A L'INTENSIFICATION DE DIKELEDI JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL). CEPENDANT SI
IL Y INTERACTION AVEC DES COTES AFRICAINES L'INTENSIFICATION SE FERA
PLUS LENTEMENT. PAR AILLEURS, UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL LORS DE SA PHASE MATURE POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON INTENSITE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT ENCORE EN COURS SUR L'OUEST DE LA PROVINCE
D'ANTSIRANANA S'EVACUANT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. COUP DE VENT
S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE LE LONG DE LA PROVINCE DE
MAHAJANGA JUSQU'A CE SOIR PUIS EXTENSION POSSIBLE LA SEMAINE
PROCHAINE AU SUD DU CAP SAINT-ANDRE LUNDI ET MARDI.
- FORTES PLUIES EN COURS SUR LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA. CUMULS
SUPPLEMENTAIRES DE 100MM POSSIBLES AVANT UNE AMELIORATION DANS LA
JOURNEE. FORTES PLUIES SUR LE LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA
POSSIBLES AUJOURD'HUI. CUMULS 100MM POSSIBLES SUR LA JOURNEE.

MAYOTTE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE SUR LE SUD DE L'ILE DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES.
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'EN FIN DE JOURNEE SOUS LES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 100-150 MM EN 12H POSSIBLES.

COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES AUJOURD'HUI EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES
DE 100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, JUSQU'EN NUIT SUIVANTE.
RISQUE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN BAISSE POUR LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET
SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE LUNDI. 100-200 MM EN 24H
POSSIBLES LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A MARDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 120006
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 48.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 12 UTC:
14.1 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/13 AT 00 UTC:
15.0 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250111195438
2025011118 07S DIKELEDI 005 01 255 13 SATL 040
T000 129S 0490E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 136S 0466E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 143S 0447E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 153S 0432E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 163S 0422E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 195S 0415E 105 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 237S 0427E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 283S 0459E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.6S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.7S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.3S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 48.4E.
11JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011018 133S 541E 60
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011100 130S 529E 75
0725011106 127S 516E 80
0725011106 127S 516E 80
0725011106 127S 516E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011112 126S 503E 80
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
0725011118 129S 490E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.6S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.7S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.3S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 48.4E.
11JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 49.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK,
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AT AROUND 1630 UTC
BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF ANTSIRANANA AND VOHEMAR. IT WAS THEN AT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH WINDS OF 70KT. ON LANDING, DIKELEDI LOST
INTENSITY AND WAS DOWNGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF
60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DIKELEDI CONTINUED ITS GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL IT
TOUCHED THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR THIS EVENING. THEN, WITH A
WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TILT ITS TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH-WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS AS IT EXITS THE
SEA FROM DIKELIDI, THEN IT INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY WITH A MORE
OR LESS RAPID TURN AND MORE OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE
(NAMPULA PROVINCE), DEPENDING ON THE GREATER OR LESSER EFFECT OF A
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, AND IS CLOSER TO THE AROME
SCENARIO, WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL (NOTE
THAT THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW ALSO TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CENTER OF
THE CHANNEL AND NO LONGER TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH
REINFORCES OUR FORECAST).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR,
DIKELEDI WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE
TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. ON REACHING THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH VERY WARM WATERS AND
A HUMID ENVIRONMENT, ENABLING IT TO RESTRUCTURE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER,
WIND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION A LITTLE
TOMORROW, BEFORE DIKELEDI RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT EASES OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL TRACK. INDEED, WITH A
CENTRAL TRACK LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED BY THE RSMC, THERE ARE FEW BRAKES
ON DIKELEDI'S INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN
COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS
INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- STORM-FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY OVER THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA,
GRADUALLY EVACUATING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
GALE EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING, THEN POSSIBLE EXTENSION NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF CAPE
SAINT-ANDRE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS UNDERWAY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE
AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 100 MM,
LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND
EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS, LOCALLY VERY HEAVY. WAVES OF 4 TO 6
METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST DIMINISHING RAPIDLY.
- WAVES OF 4 METRES POSSIBLE ON THE WEST COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE
(NEAR CAP SAINT-ANDRE) BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

MAYOTTE:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY UNDER THE PERIPHERAL
BANDS. TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 100-150 MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAINS ON SUNDAY AROUND THE SYSTEM. CUMULUS CLOSE TO 100 MM
IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON THE EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FROM MONDAY. 100-200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0 S / 49.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85

24H: 12/01/2025 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 13/01/2025 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 13/01/2025 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 14/01/2025 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 14/01/2025 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 16/01/2025 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DIKELEDI A POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST ET A ATTERRI SUR LA POINTE NORD DE MADAGASCAR VERS 1630
UTC ENTRE LES VILLES DE ANTSIRANANA ET DE VOHEMAR. IL ETAIT ALORS AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS DE 70KT. EN ATTERRISSANT,
DIKELEDI A PERDU EN INTENSITE ET IL A ETE RETROGRADE AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 60KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. PILOTE PAR UNE
PUISSANTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DIKELEDI A POURSUIVI SON DEPLACEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST JUSQU'A TOUCHER LA POINTE NORD DE MADAGASCAR CE
SOIR. PUIS AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INCLINER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LES
PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. IL VA PAR LA SUITE EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST MARDI. IL Y A UNE PETITE DISPERSION ENTRE LES
MODELES A LA RESSORTIE EN MER DE DIKELIDI PUIS ELLE AUGMENTE
FORTEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI AVEC UN VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ET
PLUS OU MOINS PROCHE DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA),
EN FONCTION DE L'EFFET PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT D'UN THALWEG SUR LE
SUD DE L'AFRIQUE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, EN SE RAPPROCHANT DU SCENARIO
D'AROME FAISANT UN VIRAGE DAVANTAGE SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL (ON PEUT
NOTER QUE LE RUN DE 06Z DE GFS FAIT MAINTENANT PASSER LE SYSTEME
AUSSI SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL ET PLUS SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE CE
QUI CONFORTE NOTRE PREVISION).

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ACTUELLEMENT AU DESSUS DE LA POINTE NORD DE
MADAGASCAR, DIKELEDI VA CONSIDERABLEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES ET ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT RETROGRADEE AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. PUIS A SON ARRIVEE SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME VA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES ET UN
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE LUI PERMETTANT DE SE RESTRUCTURER RAPIDEMENT.
CEPENDANT LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT VA DANS UN TOUT PREMIER TEMPS UN
PEU LIMITER SON INTENSIFICATION DEMAIN, PUIS BAISSANT LA NUIT
SUIVANTE DIKELEDI VA RAPIDEMENT S'INTENSIFIER. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME CAR CELA DEPENDRA DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE FINALE. EN EFFET, AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE CENTRALE COMME
CELLE PROPOSEE PAR LE CMRS, IL EXISTE PEU DE FREINS A
L'INTENSIFICATION DE DIKELEDI JUSQ'AU STADE DE CYCLONTE TROPICAL
INTENSE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE,
CONTENU EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL). CEPENDANT SI IL Y
INTERACTION AVEC DES COTES AFRICAINES L'INTENSIFICATION SE FERA PLUS
LENTEMENT. PAR AILLEURS, UN POSSIBLE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
LORS DE SA PHASE MATURE POURRAIT FAIRE FLUCTUER SON INTENSITE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN COURS SUR LA PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA
S'EVACUANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT.
COUP DE VENT S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINT-ANDRE LE LONG DE LA
PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SOIR PUIS EXTENSION POSSIBLE
LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE AU SUD DU CAP SAINT-ANDRE LUNDI ET MARDI.
- FORTES PLUIES EN COURS ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN SUR LA PROVINCE DE
ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE
PLUS DE 100 MM, LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM EN 24H PRES DU CENTRE DU
SYSTEME ET LE RELIEF MONTAGNEUX EXPOSE.
- MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE, LOCALEMENT TRES GROSSE. VAGUES DE 4 A 6
METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST EN DIMINUTION RAPIDE.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL OUEST DE LA PROVINCE
DE MAHAJANGA (PRES DU CAP SAINT-ANDRE) ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI.

MAYOTTE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE SUR LE SUD DE L'ILE DIMANCHE EN JOURNEE.
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE EN FIN DE JOURNEE SOUS LES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 100-150 MM EN 12H POSSIBLES.

COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES DIMANCHE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES DE
100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, JUSQU'EN NUIT SUIVANTE.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLE LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES A PARTIR DE LUNDI. 100-200 MM EN 24H
POSSIBLES LOCALEMENT LE LONG DE LA COTE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 111807
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 49.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 06 UTC:
13.6 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 111220
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 50.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 00 UTC:
13.2 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 12 UTC:
14.0 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250111071748
2025011106 07S DIKELEDI 004 01 280 14 SATL SYNP 030
T000 127S 0516E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 129S 0491E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 134S 0468E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 141S 0447E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 160S 0419E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 184S 0413E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 213S 0411E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 261S 0432E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.1S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.0S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.4S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.3S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.1S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 51.0E.
11JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
441 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 132S 543E 55
0725011018 132S 543E 55
0725011100 130S 530E 75
0725011100 130S 530E 75
0725011100 130S 530E 75
0725011106 127S 516E 75
0725011106 127S 516E 75
0725011106 127S 516E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.1S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.0S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.4S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.3S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.1S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 51.0E.
11JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
441 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 110600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110718
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 51.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE DIKELEDI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY, BUT THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG,
TRANSPORTING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE VORTEX ON A FAIRLY REGULAR
BASIS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE PICTURE (F16 FROM 0255Z) CONFIRMS THAT
THE EYE WALL HAS CONSOLIDATED, BUT IS STILL NOT TOTALLY CLOSED ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE DUE TO SHEAR. THE SAR AT 0213Z MEASURES AN AVERAGE
WIND SPEED OF 68KT, WHEREAS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE OF THE ORDER OF
60KT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 65 KT, BUT THIS ESTIMATE
REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

DIKELEDI IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR
WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOWING DOWN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, AS IT
EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY, WITH
A MORE OR LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE
OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE),
DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS
IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE MAINLY BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS.

THE SYSTEM'S FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS IN THE
SHORT TERM, BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND TO
THE CORE'S IMPERFECT STRUCTURE. BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED, INCREASING
THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR, AND THE PASSAGE OVER MALAGASY LANDS, WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A DEGREE THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ONCE BACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY. AS IT APPROACHES THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST, LAND INTERACTION COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE OR LIMIT
INTENSITY. LATER ON, IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION (LOW WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE,
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
COULD THUS BE APPROACHED OR REACHED, EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SO FAR
AWAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM THIS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, SPREADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN
THE EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8 METERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- STORM SURGE OF 50CM TO 1M AROUND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTRY,
LOCALY 1M TO 1M50 ON THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST OF REGION DIANA.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE (NEAR CAPE SAINT-ANDRE) FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12H POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
LOCALLY UP TO 100 MM IN 24H, AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE COASTAL AREAS) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ON MONDAY. LOCALLY 100-200 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS LIKELY FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110718
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 51.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/01/2025 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 12/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 0

36H: 12/01/2025 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 13/01/2025 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 13/01/2025 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 14/01/2025 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2025 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 16/01/2025 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DIKELEDI
S'EST UN PEU AMELIOREE, MAIS LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-SUD-EST RESTE
ASSEZ FORT, TRANSPORTANT ASSEZ REGULIEREMENT LES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE
AU-DESSUS DU VORTEX. LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDES (F16 DE 0255Z)
CONFIRME QUE LE MUR DE L'OEIL S'EST CONSOLIDE MAIS N'EST TOUJOURS PAS
TOTALEMENT FERME COTE SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. LA SAR DE
0213Z MESURE UN VENT MOYEN DE 68KT ALORS QUE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
SONT DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT. L'INTENSITE EST DONC LAISSEE A 65 KT, MAIS
CETTE ESTIMATION RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

DIKELEDI SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DU NORD DE
MADAGASCAR TOUT EN RALENTISSANT LEGEREMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR SUR LA PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA SAMEDI APRES-MIDI. PAR LA
SUITE, A SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE MOUVEMENT
S'INCURVE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN RAISON D'UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE
DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES AUGMENTE
FORTEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS
SUD PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ET PLUS OU MOINS PROCHE DES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA), EN FONCTION DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DE L'EFFET PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT D'UN TALWEG SUR LE
SUD DE L'AFRIQUE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS
PRINCIPALEMENT ENTRE LES MODELES GFS, AROME ET AIFS.

L'INTENSITE PREVUE DU SYSTEME A COURTE ECHEANCE, AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, A ETE REVUE A LA BAISSE EN RAISON DES
EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA MAUVAISE CONSOLIDATION DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. ENTRE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE MATIN, LE RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT, AUGMENTANT LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT, AINSI QUE LE
PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES MALGACHES, VONT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME A
UN DEGRE ENCORE INCERTAIN. UNE FOIS DE NOUVEAU AU-DESSUS DES EAUX
CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU
RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS ET S'INTENSIFIER. EN CAS D'APPROCHE
DE LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE, UNE INTERACTION PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE
AVEC LES TERRES POURRAIT FAIRE BAISSER OU LIMITER L'INTENSITE
TEMPORAIREMENT. DANS LE CENTRE PUIS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAJORITAIREMENT PROPICES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL). LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE POURRAIT ALORS ETRE APPROCHE OU
ATTEINT, MEME SI LA PREVISION A CES ECHEANCES LOINTAINES RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAINE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT CE SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MATINEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA, S'ETENDANT EN SOIREE ET NUIT VERS LA COTE
OUEST. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLES SAMEDI APRES-MIDI A PROXIMITE
DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (ENTRE VOHEMAR ET ANTSIRANANA).
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN
SUR LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE
TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM, LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM EN 24H
PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF MONTAGNEUX
EXPOSE.
- MER TRES FORTE A LOCALEMENT GROSSE DE SAMEDI MATIN JUSQU'EN SOIREE.
VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT
6 A 8 METRES L'APRES-MIDI PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE 50CM A 1M AUTOUR DE LA POINTE NORD MALGACHE,
LOCALEMENT 1M A 1M50 SUR L'EXTREME NORD-OUEST DE LA REGION DIANA.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL OUEST DE LA PROVINCE
DE MAHAJANGA (PRES DU CAP SAINT-ANDRE) ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 150-200 MM EN 12H
POSSIBLES.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.

COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES DIMANCHE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES DE
100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, JUSQU'EN NUIT SUIVANTE.
TEMPETE POSSIBLE LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES LUNDI. 100-200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES
LOCALEMENT.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 110618
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 51.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 370 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 18 UTC:
12.9 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 06 UTC:
13.4 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110136
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED RATHER
HESITANT, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE AND THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR,
TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE VORTEX. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGES (1755Z AMSU-B, 1900Z GPM-GMI, 2130Z AMSR2) CONFIRM THE
PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY INTENSE BUT PARTIAL CONVECTIVE CORE WITH AN
EYEWALL WRAPPING ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF A TURN, BUT SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE UNDER THE EFFECT OF WIND
SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 65 KT,
BUT THIS ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

DIKELEDI IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR
WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOWING DOWN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, AS IT
EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY, WITH
A MORE OR LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE
OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE),
DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS
IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE MAINLY BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS.

THE SYSTEM'S FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS IN THE
SHORT TERM, BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND TO
THE CORE'S IMPERFECT STRUCTURE. BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED, INCREASING
THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR, AND THE PASSAGE OVER MALAGASY LANDS, WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A DEGREE THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ONCE BACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY. AS IT APPROACHES THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST, LAND INTERACTION COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE OR LIMIT
INTENSITY. LATER ON, IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION (LOW WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE,
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
COULD THUS BE APPROACHED OR REACHED, EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SO FAR
AWAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM THIS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, SPREADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN
THE EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8 METERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- STORM SURGE OF 50CM TO 1M AROUND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTRY,
LOCALY 1M TO 1M50 ON THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST OF REGION DIANA.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE (NEAR CAPE SAINT-ANDRE) FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12H POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
LOCALLY UP TO 100 MM IN 24H, AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE COASTAL AREAS) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ON MONDAY. LOCALLY 100-200 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS LIKELY FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110136
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/01/2025 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 0

36H: 12/01/2025 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 13/01/2025 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-


AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DIKELEDI
EST RESTEE HESITANTE, EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
CONVECTIF ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT
D'EST-SUD-EST, TRANSPORTANT LES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE AU-DESSUS DU
VORTEX. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSU-B A 1755Z, GPM-GMI
VERS 1900Z PUIS AMSR2 A 2130Z) CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN COEUR
CONVECTIF ASSEZ INTENSE MAIS MAL CONSOLIDE, AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL
PARTIEL SUR ENVIRON DEUX TIERS D'UN TOUR ET PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLESSE
IMPORTANTE DU COTE SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. EN L'ABSENCE
DE NOUVELLES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 65 KT, MAIS CETTE
ESTIMATION RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

DIKELEDI SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DU NORD DE
MADAGASCAR TOUT EN RALENTISSANT LEGEREMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR SUR LA PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA SAMEDI APRES-MIDI. PAR LA
SUITE, A SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE MOUVEMENT
S'INCURVE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN RAISON D'UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE
DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES AUGMENTE
FORTEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS
SUD PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ET PLUS OU MOINS PROCHE DES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA), EN FONCTION DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DE L'EFFET PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT D'UN TALWEG SUR LE
SUD DE L'AFRIQUE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS
PRINCIPALEMENT ENTRE LES MODELES GFS, AROME ET AIFS.

L'INTENSITE PREVUE DU SYSTEME A COURTE ECHEANCE, AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, A ETE REVUE A LA BAISSE EN RAISON DES
EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA MAUVAISE CONSOLIDATION DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. ENTRE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE MATIN, LE RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT, AUGMENTANT LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT, AINSI QUE LE
PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES MALGACHES, VONT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME A
UN DEGRE ENCORE INCERTAIN. UNE FOIS DE NOUVEAU AU-DESSUS DES EAUX
CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU
RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS ET S'INTENSIFIER. EN CAS D'APPROCHE
DE LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE, UNE INTERACTION PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE
AVEC LES TERRES POURRAIT FAIRE BAISSER OU LIMITER L'INTENSITE
TEMPORAIREMENT. DANS LE CENTRE PUIS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAJORITAIREMENT PROPICES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL). LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE POURRAIT ALORS ETRE APPROCHE OU
ATTEINT, MEME SI LA PREVISION A CES ECHEANCES LOINTAINES RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAINE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT CE SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MATINEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA, S'ETENDANT EN SOIREE ET NUIT VERS LA COTE
OUEST. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLES SAMEDI APRES-MIDI A PROXIMITE
DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (ENTRE VOHEMAR ET ANTSIRANANA).
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN
SUR LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE
TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM, LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM EN 24H
PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF MONTAGNEUX
EXPOSE.
- MER TRES FORTE A LOCALEMENT GROSSE DE SAMEDI MATIN JUSQU'EN SOIREE.
VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT
6 A 8 METRES L'APRES-MIDI PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE 50CM A 1M AUTOUR DE LA POINTE NORD MALGACHE,
LOCALEMENT 1M A 1M50 SUR L'EXTREME NORD-OUEST DE LA REGION DIANA.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL OUEST DE LA PROVINCE
DE MAHAJANGA (PRES DU CAP SAINT-ANDRE) ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 150-200 MM EN 12H
POSSIBLES.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.

COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES DIMANCHE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES DE
100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, JUSQU'EN NUIT SUIVANTE.
TEMPETE POSSIBLE LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES LUNDI. 100-200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES
LOCALEMENT.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED RATHER
HESITANT, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE AND THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR,
TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE VORTEX. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGES (1755Z AMSU-B, 1900Z GPM-GMI, 2130Z AMSR2) CONFIRM THE
PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A FIRM PARTIAL
EYEWALL OVER MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF A TURN, BUT SHOWING A WEAKNESS
ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE UNDER THE EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR. AROUND OOZ, THE
EYE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY BEGAN TO IMPROVE AGAIN, SUGGESTING A
POSSIBLE RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA,
AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A POSSIBLE UNDERESTIMATION OF INTENSITY BY
ADT/AIDT-TYPE TECHNIQUES DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CDO, THE
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 65 KT, BUT THIS ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER
UNCERTAIN.

DIKELEDI IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR
WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOWING DOWN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, AS IT
EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS INCREASES SHARPLY FROM MONDAY, WITH
A MORE OR LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE
OR LESS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE),
DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS
IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE MAINLY BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS.

THE SYSTEM'S FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS
IN THE SHORT TERM, BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, DUE TO WIND
SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIKELY THIS
SATURDAY. BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING, THE SLOWING
DOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED, INCREASING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR,
AND THE PASSAGE OVER MALAGASY LANDS, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A
DEGREE THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD
CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY. AS IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, LAND
INTERACTION COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE OR LIMIT INTENSITY. LATER ON, IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION (LOW
SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT).


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM THIS SATURDAY MORNING ON THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, SPREADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN
THE EVENING AND FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8 METERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- STORM SURGE OF 50CM TO 1M AROUND THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTRY,
LOCALY 1M TO 1M50 ON THE EXTREME NORTH-WEST OF REGION DIANA.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE (NEAR CAPE SAINT-ANDRE) FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12H POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
LOCALLY UP TO 100 MM IN 24H, AND 150-200 MM OVER EXPOSED HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE COASTAL AREAS) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ON MONDAY. LOCALLY 100-200 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS LIKELY FROM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/01/2025 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 0

36H: 12/01/2025 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 13/01/2025 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 16/01/2025 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-


AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DIKELEDI
EST RESTEE HESITANTE, EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
CONVECTIF ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT
D'EST-SUD-EST, TRANSPORTANT LES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE AU-DESSUS DU
VORTEX. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSU-B A 1755Z, GPM-GMI
VERS 1900Z PUIS AMSR2 A 2130Z) CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN COEUR
CONVECTIF ASSEZ INTENSE AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL FERME SUR PLUS DE DEUX
TIERS D'UN TOUR, MAIS PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLESSE DU COTE SUD-EST SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. VERS OOZ, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN
IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE A RECOMMENCE A S'AMELIORER, CE QUI SEMBLE
INDIQUER UNE POSSIBLE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. EN L'ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES ET EN TENANT COMPTE D'UNE POSSIBLE SOUS-ESTIMATION
DE L'INTENSITE PAR LES TECHNIQUES DE TYPE ADT/AIDT EN RAISON DE LA
PETITE TAILLE DU CDO, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 65 KT, MAIS CETTE
ESTIMATION RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

DIKELEDI SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DU NORD DE
MADAGASCAR TOUT EN RALENTISSANT LEGEREMENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR SUR LA PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA SAMEDI APRES-MIDI. PAR LA
SUITE, A SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE MOUVEMENT
S'INCURVE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN RAISON D'UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE
DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES AUGMENTE
FORTEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS
SUD PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ET PLUS OU MOINS PROCHE DES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA), EN FONCTION DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DE L'EFFET PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT D'UN TALWEG SUR LE
SUD DE L'AFRIQUE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS
PRINCIPALEMENT ENTRE LES MODELES GFS, AROME ET AIFS.

L'INTENSITE PREVUE DU SYSTEME A COURTE ECHEANCE, AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, A ETE REVUE UN PEU A LA BAISSE EN RAISON
DES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT. NEANMOINS UNE PETITE INTENSIFICATION
RESTE PROBABLE CE SAMEDI. ENTRE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE MATIN, LE
RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT, AUGMENTANT LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT,
AINSI QUE LE PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES MALGACHES, VONT AFFAIBLIR
LE SYSTEME A UN DEGRE ENCORE INCERTAIN. UNE FOIS DE NOUVEAU AU-DESSUS
DES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DE
NOUVEAU RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS ET S'INTENSIFIER. EN CAS
D'APPROCHE DE LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE, UNE INTERACTION PLUS OU MOINS
IMPORTANTE AVEC LES TERRES POURRAIT FAIRE BAISSER OU LIMITER
L'INTENSITE TEMPORAIREMENT. DANS LE CENTRE PUIS LE SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAJORITAIREMENT
PROPICES A UNE INTENSIFICATION POTENTIELLEMENT SIGNIFICATIVE (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CONTENU EN CHALEUR
OCEANIQUE EXCEPTIONNEL).


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT CE SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MATINEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA, S'ETENDANT EN SOIREE ET NUIT VERS LA COTE
OUEST. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLES SAMEDI APRES-MIDI A PROXIMITE
DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (ENTRE VOHEMAR ET ANTSIRANANA).
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN
SUR LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE
TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM, LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM EN 24H
PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF MONTAGNEUX
EXPOSE.
- MER TRES FORTE A LOCALEMENT GROSSE DE SAMEDI MATIN JUSQU'EN SOIREE.
VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT
6 A 8 METRES L'APRES-MIDI PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE 50CM A 1M AUTOUR DE LA POINTE NORD MALGACHE,
LOCALEMENT 1M A 1M50 SUR L'EXTREME NORD-OUEST DE LA REGION DIANA.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL OUEST DE LA PROVINCE
DE MAHAJANGA (PRES DU CAP SAINT-ANDRE) ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 150-200 MM EN 12H
POSSIBLES.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4 METRES POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.

COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES DIMANCHE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES DE
100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE (LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA) :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, JUSQU'EN NUIT SUIVANTE.
TEMPETE POSSIBLE LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES LUNDI. 100-200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES
LOCALEMENT.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI ET JUSQU'A
MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 110016
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 52.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/12 AT 00 UTC:
13.0 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250110191612
2025011018 07S DIKELEDI 003 01 280 14 SATL 060
T000 133S 0542E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 127S 0516E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 128S 0493E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 134S 0468E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 143S 0450E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 164S 0427E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 195S 0417E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 241S 0428E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.8S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.4S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.1S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 53.5E.
10JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.
//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011006 136S 571E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011012 135S 556E 55
0725011018 133S 542E 55
0725011018 133S 542E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.8S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.4S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.1S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 53.5E.
10JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 54.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/01/2025 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 11/01/2025 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 12/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 12/01/2025 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 13/01/2025 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 13/01/2025 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/01/2025 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 15/01/2025 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DIKELEDI S'EST AMELIOREE, AVEC L'APPARITION D'UN OEIL EN IMAGERIE
SATELLITE VISIBLE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET LA
PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE D'EST-SUD-EST TRANSPORTANT DES
CIRRUS AU-DESSUS DE L'OEIL NE PERMETTENT POUR L'INSTANT PAS A LA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE S'AFFIRMER EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR LE MET/PT ET ESTIMEE A
4.5-, SUGGERANT UNE INTENSITE AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
AVEC DES VENTS DE 65 KT, AU-DESSUS DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU
CIMSS. NEANMOINS, EN L'ABSENCE DE RECENTES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
FIABLES, CETTE ESTIMATION EST ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, DIKELEDI SE DEPLACE RAPIDEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ATTERRIR SUR LA PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA SAMEDI EN FIN DE
JOURNEE OU SOIREE. PAR LA SUITE, A SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, LE MOUVEMENT S'INCURVE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN RAISON
D'UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES AUGMENTE FORTEMENT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
LUNDI, AVEC UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
ET PLUS OU MOINS PROCHE DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE
NAMPULA), EN FONCTION DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR ET DE L'EFFET PLUS
OU MOINS IMPORTANT D'UN TALWEG AU SUD DE L'AFRIQUE. LA PREVISION DU
CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS PRINCIPALEMENT ENTRE LES MODELES GFS, AROME ET
AIFS, QUI SEMBLENT MIEUX GERER LE SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS DANS LA PREVISION. DIKELEDI
RENCONTE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES AVEC DES
EAUX TRES CHAUDES, UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, MAIS UNE
INFLUENCE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'EST-SUD-EST (LE SYSTEME SE
DEPLACANT DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT, SES EFFETS PERTURBATEURS SONT
REDUITS). CES BONNES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A SAMEDI
SOIR ET PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION. UNE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE EST POSSIBLE DU FAIT DE SA PETITE TAILLE ET UN
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS EXCLU MEME SI CE N'EST PAS LE SCENARIO
PRIVILEGIE. ENTRE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE MATIN, LE RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT, AUGMENTANT LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT, AINSI QUE LE
PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES MALGACHES, VONT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME A
UN DEGRE ENCORE INCERTAIN. UNE FOIS DE NOUVEAU AU DESSUS DES EAUX
CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU
RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS ET S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT.
CETTE INTENSIFICATION SERA FORTEMENT DEPENDANTE DE SA TRAJECTOIRE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS PROPOSE UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE JUSQU'AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A 120 HEURES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLES EN FIN
D'APRES-MIDI ET SOIREE DE SAMEDI A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE (ENTRE VOHEMAR ET ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE A LOCALEMENT GROSSE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT
SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE
CAP EST, LOCALEMENT 6 A 8 METRES PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SUR
LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE
TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM EN 24H
PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF MONTAGNEUX
EXPOSE.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 150-200 MM EN 12H
POSSIBLES.
- VENTS FORTS POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M POSSIBLES DIMANCHE.

COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES DIMANCHE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME. CUMULS PROCHES DE
100 MM EN 24H LOCALEMENT, 150 MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- VAGUES DE 4M POSSIBLES ENTRE LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET MARDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 54.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, WITH
THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR SPREADING CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE THE EYE MEAN THAT
THE EYE PATTERN IS NOT YET CLEAR IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS MAINLY BASED ON MET/PT AND ESTIMATED AT 4.5-,
SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF 65 KT. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT RELIABLE OBJECTIVE
DATA, THIS ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DIKELEDI IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WEST-NORTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA ON SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THEREAFTER, AS IT EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE MOVEMENT CURVES TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DUE TO A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS
INCREASES SHARPLY FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, WITH A MORE OR
LESS RAPID TURN TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH, AND MORE OR LESS
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE), DEPENDING ON THE
LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW AND THE MORE OR LESS IMPORTANT EFFECT OF A
TROUGH SOUTH OF AFRICA. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE MAINLY
BETWEEN GFS, AROME AND AIFS MODELS, WHICH SEEM TO BETTER HANDLE THE
SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
DIKELEDI IS CURRENTLY UNDER OVERALL GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
WITH VERY WARM WATERS, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT A RELATIVE
INFLUENCE OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR (BUT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, WHICH REDUCES ITS DISRUPTING EFFECTS).
THESE GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE, AND AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR CANNOT BE RULED OUT, EVEN IF THIS
IS NOT THE PREFERRED SCENARIO. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT, INCREASING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR,
AND THE PASSAGE OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MORE OR LESS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK. THE RSMC
FORECAST CALLS FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
AT 120 HOURS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS AND LOCALLY 6 TO 8
METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OVER ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100
MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND
150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 150-200 MM IN 12HRS POSSIBLE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- WAVES NEAR 4M POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL
UP TO 100 MM LOCALLY, AND 150 MM OVER HIGH GROUND.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING
NIGHT.
- WAVES NEAR 4M POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNON AND TUESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 101815
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 54.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 20 NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
12.5 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 18 UTC:
12.7 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 55.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE, WITH A CLEARLY VISIBLE SPIRAL BAND STRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA,
DIKELEDI IS MAINTAINED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WE'RE SEEING A GOOD CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
DIKELEDI IS MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAND OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ANTSIRANANA ON SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS IT EXITS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, DISPERSION INCREASES SHARPLY BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS. INDEED, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND STEER
ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF THIS WEAKNESS, THE TRACKS WILL REMAIN WESTWARD FOR LONGER
(AS GFS SCENARIO), WHILE SOME SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK (AS
IFS). HOWEVER, ALL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK FROM RUN TO RUN. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, AND CURRENTLY FOLLOWS THE
AIFS GUIDANCE, OFFERING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. DIKELEDI IS
CURRENTLY IN GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS, A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF SHEAR (THE SYSTEM IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SHEAR) AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE GOOD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE THE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, EVEN IF THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED SCENARIO. THE
OVERLAND PASSAGE OF THE GRANDE TERRE WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS IT IS SO SMALL. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS BACK ABOVE
THE SEA, AS IT EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THIS
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK (IF IT DIVES
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARDS, THE MALAGASY COAST COULD STRONGLY PREVENT
INTENSIFICATION). THE RSMC FORECAST CALLS FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON SATURDAY EVENING NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA (BETWEEN VOHEMAR AND ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY HEAVY SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OVER ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100
MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND
150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED MOUNTAIN RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 150MM IN 12HRS POSSIBLE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 55.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 11/01/2025 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 12/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 12/01/2025 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 13/01/2025 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/01/2025 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 15/01/2025 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DIKELEDI A CONTINUE A S'AMLERIORER AVEC UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE
SPIRALEE BIEN VISIBLE, NOTAMMENT SUR L'IMAGE VISIBLE. EN ABSENCE DE
DONNEES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES DIKELEDI EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 60KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, ON OBSERVE UN BON CONSENSUS DES GUIDANCES
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H. EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, DIKELEDI SE DEPLACE RAPIDEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
EN DIRECTION DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ATTERRIR SUR
LA PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA SAMEDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE. PAR LA
SUITE, A SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LA DISPERSION
AUGMENTE FORTEMENT ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES. EN EFFET, UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE
S'ENGOUFFRER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. CEPENDANT, SELON L'IMPORTANCE DE CETTE
FAIBLESSE, LES TRAJECTOIRES RESTENT PLUS LONGTEMPS AVEC UNE
ORIENTATION OUEST (COMME GFS) ALORS QUE CERTAINS PROPOSENT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI PROLONGE DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD (COMME IFS). ON NOTERA
CEPENDANT UNE TENDANCE DE TOUS LES MODELES A AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LEGEREMENT PLUS NORD DE RUN EN RUN. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE
SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, ET SUIT
ACTUELLEMENT LA GUIDANCE AIFS PROPOSANT UN BON CONSENS SUR
L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS DANS LA PREVISION. DIKELEDI
RENCONTE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES AVEC DES
EAUX TRES CHAUDES, UNE INFLUENCE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT (LE SYSTEME
SE DEPLACANT DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT) ET UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. CES BONNES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A
SAMEDI SOIR ET PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON
INTENSIFICATION. IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
DANS LES PROCHAINES 12H. UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DU FAIT DE SA
PETITE TAILLE ET UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS EXCLU MEME SI CE N'EST PAS LE
SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE. LE PASSAGE AU DESSUS DES TERRES DE LA GRANDE
TERRE VA CONSIDERABLEMENT AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME, D'AUTANT PLUS QU'IL
EST DE PETITE TAILLE. UNE FOIS DE NOUVEAU AU DESSUS DE LA MER A SA
RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU
RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS ET S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT.
CETTE INTENSIFICATION SERA FORTEMENT DEPENDANTE DE SA TRAJECTOIRE (SI
IL PLONGE RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD, LES COTES MALGACHES POURRAIENT
FORTEMENT EMPECHER UNE INTENSIFICATION). LA PREVISION DU CMRS PROPOSE
UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A
120 HEURES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

TROMELIN :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN MATIN. AMELIORATION DEMAIN EN
JOURNEE.

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLES EN SOIREE DE
SAMEDI A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (ENTRE VOHEMAR ET
ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SUR
LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE
TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM EN 24H
PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE RELIEF MONTAGNEUX
EXPOSE.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET JOURNEE
DE DIMANCHE. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 150MM EN 12H POSSIBLES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 101215
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 55.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 00 UTC:
13.0 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.8 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250110073355
2025011006 07S DIKELEDI 002 01 275 15 SATL SYNP XTRP 025
T000 135S 0571E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 130S 0541E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 126S 0515E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 125S 0491E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 131S 0467E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 150S 0430E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 176S 0408E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 216S 0405E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.0S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.6S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 56.3E.
10JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
396 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 992 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
0725011000 136S 586E 45
0725011006 135S 571E 50
0725011006 135S 571E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.0S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.6S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 56.3E.
10JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
396 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI'S CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED, WITH A MORE COMPACT AND SHARPER SPIRAL BAND PATTERN. A SAR
AT THE EDGE OF THE MOW AT 0137 SHOWED A STRUCTURE THAT WAS STILL
MODERATELY ORGANIZED, WITH WINDS OF 40KT IN THE SEMI-SOUTH CIRCLE.
HOWEVER, THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0549Z BEGINS TO SHOW AN EYE ON
THE 85GHTZ AND AN IMPROVING ORGANIZATION. DIKELEDI IS UPGRADED TO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH 50KT WINDS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK; OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DIKELEDI WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A GOOD PACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A LANDING ON SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING
OVER MADAGASCAR LANDMASS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW ALONG TRACKS
AMONG SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK INCREASES FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION BETWEEN GUIDANCE . THE MAJORITY SCENARIO
IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO EMERGE ON SUNDAY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
CURVING ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, DUE TO
A MORE OR LESS MARKED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES, AND IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE AIFS GUIDANCE,
WHICH OFFERS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPROVING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARDS.
DIKELEDI IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM VERY WARM WATERS AND HIGH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THESE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL HELP THE SYSTEM TO
SYMMETRIZE BETTER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EVEN ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
FORECAST FOR THIS FRIDAY AND UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR
ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED,
BUT WILL POTENTIALLY DEPEND ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S INTERNAL
MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ) OR ON AN INCREASE OF THE VWS
COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES
LAND. IN WHICH CASE, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY THAN FORECAST. THIS IS AT LEAST THE APPROACH OF THE RSMC
INTENSITY FORECAST. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEN PASS OVER MADAGASCAR DURING
THE NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LAND, BUT SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE
RAPIDLY INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN VERY WARM WATERS
IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST,
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COASTS, AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS
TRACK FORECAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND OR
CLOSE TO LAND, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 8 TO 10
METRES NEAR THE LANDING ZONE.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED
MOUNTAINOUS RELIEF.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF
OVER 150MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2025 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 11/01/2025 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 11/01/2025 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 12/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 12/01/2025 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 35

72H: 13/01/2025 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/01/2025 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 15/01/2025 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE DE DIKELEDI
S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE SPIRALEE
PLUS COMPACTE ET PLUS NETTE. UNE SAR EN BORDURE DE FAUCHEE A 0137
METTAIT EN EVIDENCE UNE STRUCTURE ENCORE MOYENNEMENT ORGANSISEE AVEC
DES VENTS DE 40KT DANS LE DEMI CERCLE-SUD. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 0549Z COMMENCE A FAIRE APPARAITRE UN OEIL SUR LE
85GHTZ ET MONTRE UNE ORGANISATION EN AMELIORATION. DIKELEDI EST DONT
UPGRADE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 50KT.

ASSEZ PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE ; AU COURS DES 36
PROCHAINES HEURES DIKELEDI VA POURSUIVRE UNE DIRECTION VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST A BON RYTHME EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD CONCERNANT UN
ATTERRISSAGE SAMEDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE SUR MADAGASCAR.
TOUTEFOIS, ON NOTE ENCORE QUELQUES ALONG TRACK PARMI CERTAINES
GUIDANCES A L'APPROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES.L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE GRANDIT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE AVEC UNE FORTE DISPERSION
ENTRE LES GUIDANCES. LE SCENARIO MAJORITAIRE PROPOSE UNE RESSORTIE DU
SYSTEME EN JOURNA E DE DIMANCHE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN
INCURVANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST, DU A
UNE FAIBLESSE PLUS OU MOINS MARQUEE DE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE
AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, ET SUIT ACTUELLEMENT LA GUIDANCE
AIFS PROPOSANT UN BON CONSENS SUR L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME DANS LE
CANAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PHILOSOPHIE RESTE LA MEME. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES S'AMELIORENT ACTUELLEMENT JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR,
AVEC UNE INFLUENCE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST DUE AU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. DIKELEDI BENEFICIE EGALEMENT
D'EAUX TRA S CHAUDES ET D'UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT FAVORISER UNE MEILLEUR
SYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES 36 PROCHAINES HEURES. LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT MEME ACCENTUER LE RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE DANS LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES. DANS CE CONTEXTE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL EST PREVU CE VENDREDI ET JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR SAMEDI. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLUE, MAIS DEPENDRA POTENTIELLEMENT DES FLUCTUATIONS
DES MECANISMES INTERNES DU SYSTEME (RENOUVELLEMENT DU CYCLE DU MUR DE
L'OEIL) OU ENCORE D'UNE HAUSSE DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE COMBINA E
A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME A L'APPROCHE DES TERRES.
AUQUEL CAS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ACCOSTER AVEC UNE INTENSITE
LEGEREMENT MOINS FORTE QUE PREVUE. C'EST DU MOINS L'APPROCHE DE LA
PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT TRANSITER
ENSUITE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT PAR INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES, MAIS DEVRAIT GARDER
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES POUR RESSORTIR RAPIDEMENT DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DIMANCHE. DE RETOUR SUR DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES
DANS UN CONTEXTE FAVORABLE, MAIS POTENTIELLEMENT PROCHE DES COTES
MALGACHES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU, MAIS AVEC UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE EN RAISON DE L'INTERACTION POTENTIELLE PLUS OU
MOINS IMPORTANTE AVEC LES TERRES. SI LE SYSTEME RESTE SUFFISAMMENT
LOIN DES COTES COMME CELA EST LE CAS POUR CETTE PRA VISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS POUR
S'INTENSIFIER, MAIS DANS LE CAS D'UN TRANSIT PLUS LONG SUR LES TERRES
OU PRES DES TERRES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SERAIT BIEN PLUS FAIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

TROMELIN :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M VENDREDI ET SAMEDI MATIN. AMELIORATION SAMEDI EN
JOURNEE.

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLES EN SOIREE DE
SAMEDI A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (SITUEE QUELQUEPART
ENTRE SAMBAVA ET ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT 8 A 10
METRES PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE LE
LONG DE LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE
LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT
200-300 MM EN 24H PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE
RELIEF MONTAGNEUX EXPOSE.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE ET JOURNEE
DE DIMANCHE. CUMULS SUPERIEURS A 150MM EN 12H POSSIBLES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 100631
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
12.9 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 59.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION BREATHED HEAVILY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER
WITH THE EMERGENCE OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE PUFFS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z,
WHILE STILL RETAINING SUFFICIENT CURVATURE. MOREOVER, THE SPREADING
OF A LARGE CIRRUS PLUME IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM
SUGGESTS A FINE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL RATHER TRICKY TO FIND, DUE TO A LACK OF AVAILABLE
MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THE BESTRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED USING AN
AMSU-B IMAGE FROM 1732Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES BY RSMC POINT A
CI OF 3.5-, MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 45KT, AT THE HIGH
END OF BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ESTIMATES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK; OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DIKELEDI WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A GOOD PACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A LANDING ON SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING
OVER MADAGASCAR LANDMASS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW ALONG TRACKS
AMONG SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK INCREASES FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, WITH
A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION BETWEEN GUIDANCE . THE MAJORITY SCENARIO
IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO EMERGE ON SUNDAY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
CURVING ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, DUE TO
A MORE OR LESS MARKED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES, AND IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE AIFS GUIDANCE,
WHICH OFFERS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPROVING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARDS.
DIKELEDI IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM VERY WARM WATERS AND HIGH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THESE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL HELP THE SYSTEM TO
SYMMETRIZE BETTER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EVEN ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
FORECAST FOR THIS FRIDAY AND UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR
ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED,
BUT WILL POTENTIALLY DEPEND ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S INTERNAL
MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ) OR ON AN INCREASE OF THE VWS
COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES
LAND. IN WHICH CASE, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY THAN FORECAST. THIS IS AT LEAST THE APPROACH OF THE RSMC
INTENSITY FORECAST. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEN PASS OVER MADAGASCAR DURING
THE NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LAND, BUT SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE
RAPIDLY INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN VERY WARM WATERS
IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST,
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COASTS, AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS
TRACK FORECAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND OR
CLOSE TO LAND, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING BY TOMORROW FRIDAY MORNING.

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 8 TO 10
METRES NEAR THE LANDING ZONE.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM IN 24H
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND 150-200 MM OVER THE EXPOSED
MOUNTAINOUS RELIEF.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 59.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2025 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 11/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 11/01/2025 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 12/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 35

60H: 12/01/2025 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 35

72H: 13/01/2025 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 15/01/2025 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONVECTION A BEAUCOUP RESPIRE, NOTAMMENT
PROCHE DU CENTRE AVEC L'EMERGENCE DE NOMBREUSES BOUFFEES CONVECTIVES
ENTRE 21Z ET 23Z, TOUT EN GARDANT ENCORE ASSEZ DE COURBURE. DE PLUS
L'EPANCHEMENT D'UN PANACHE DE CIRRUS IMPORTANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST DU SYSTEME SUGGERE UNE BELLE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA POSITION
DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ DELICATE A TROUVER EN
RAISON D'UN MANQUE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES. TOUTEFOIS LA
BESTRACK A PU ETRE ACTUALISEE SUITE A L'EXPLOITATION D'UNE IMAGE
AMSU-B DE 1732Z. LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK DU CMRS POINTENT UN
CI DE 3.5- ET DONC MAINTIENNENT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A 45KT, EN
VALEUR HAUTE DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES.

ASSEZ PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE ; AU COURS DES 36
PROCHAINES HEURES DIKELEDI VA POURSUIVRE UNE DIRECTION VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST A BON RYTHME EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD CONCERNANT UN
ATTERRISSAGE SAMEDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE SUR MADAGASCAR.
TOUTEFOIS, ON NOTE ENCORE QUELQUES ALONG TRACK PARMI CERTAINES
GUIDANCES A L'APPROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES.L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE GRANDIT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE AVEC UNE FORTE DISPERSION
ENTRE LES GUIDANCES. LE SCENARIO MAJORITAIRE PROPOSE UNE RESSORTIE DU
SYSTEME EN JOURNA E DE DIMANCHE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN
INCURVANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST, DU A
UNE FAIBLESSE PLUS OU MOINS MARQUEE DE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE
AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, ET SUIT ACTUELLEMENT LA GUIDANCE
AIFS PROPOSANT UN BON CONSENS SUR L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME DANS LE
CANAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA PHILOSOPHIE RESTE LA MEME. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES S'AMELIORENT ACTUELLEMENT JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR,
AVEC UNE INFLUENCE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST DUE AU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. DIKELEDI BENEFICIE EGALEMENT
D'EAUX TRA S CHAUDES ET D'UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT FAVORISER UNE MEILLEUR
SYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES 36 PROCHAINES HEURES. LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT MEME ACCENTUER LE RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE DANS LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES. DANS CE CONTEXTE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL EST PREVU CE VENDREDI ET JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR SAMEDI. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLUE, MAIS DEPENDRA POTENTIELLEMENT DES FLUCTUATIONS
DES MECANISMES INTERNE DU SYSTEME (RENOUVELLEMENT DU CYCLE DU MUR DE
L'OEIL) OU ENCORE D'UNE HAUSSE DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE COMBINA E
A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME A L'APPROCHE DES TERRES.
AUQUEL CAS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ACCOSTER AVEC UNE INTENSITE
LEGEREMENT MOINS FORTE QUE PREVUE. C'EST DU MOINS L'APPROCHE DE LA
PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT TRANSITER
ENSUITE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT PAR INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES, MAIS DEVRAIT GARDER
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES POUR RESSORTIR RAPIDEMENT DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DIMANCHE. DE RETOUR SUR DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES
DANS UN CONTEXTE FAVORABLE, MAIS POTENTIELLEMENT PROCHE DES COTES
MALGACHES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU, MAIS AVEC UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE EN RAISON DE L'INTERACTION POTENTIELLE PLUS OU
MOINS IMPORTANTE AVEC LES TERRES. SI LE SYSTEME RESTE SUFFISAMMENT
LOIN DES COTES COMME CELA EST LE CAS POUR CETTE PRA VISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS POUR
S'INTENSIFIER, MAIS DANS LE CAS D'UN TRANSIT PLUS LONG SUR LES TERRES
OU PRES DES TERRES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SERAIT BIEN PLUS FAIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M CETTE NUIT. AMELIORATION DES DEMAIN VENDREDI
MATIN.

TROMELIN :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M VENDREDI ET SAMEDI MATIN. AMELIORATION SAMEDI EN
JOURNEE.

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES EN SOIREE DE
SAMEDI A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (SITUEE QUELQUEPART
ENTRE SAMBAVA ET ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT 8 A 10
METRES PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE LE
LONG DE LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE
LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT
200-300 MM EN 24H PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE
RELIEF MONTAGNEUX EXPOSE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 100018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 59.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
13.6 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/11 AT 00 UTC:
13.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 250109202425
2025010918 07S DIKELEDI 001 01 270 15 SATL 060
T000 136S 0601E 040 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 133S 0572E 050 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 130S 0545E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 125S 0517E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 124S 0492E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 136S 0447E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 153S 0417E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 177S 0406E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.6S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.7S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 59.4E.
09JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
422 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
0724122912 124S1132E 15
0724122918 126S1123E 20
0724123000 127S1115E 20
0724123006 129S1106E 20
0724123012 125S1100E 20
0724123018 124S1096E 20
0724123100 123S1092E 25
0724123106 126S1091E 25
0724123112 131S1090E 25
0724123118 140S1084E 25
0725010100 142S1071E 25
0725010106 145S1063E 25
0725010112 145S1054E 25
0725010118 145S1044E 25
0725010200 145S1035E 25
0725010206 145S1027E 25
0725010212 145S1015E 25
0725010218 148S1008E 20
0725010300 150S1000E 25
0725010306 153S 990E 25
0725010312 154S 973E 25
0725010318 153S 955E 25
0725010400 152S 943E 25
0725010406 150S 936E 25
0725010412 149S 927E 25
0725010418 147S 911E 25
0725010500 151S 896E 25
0725010506 154S 880E 25
0725010512 150S 867E 20
0725010518 147S 855E 20
0725010600 142S 840E 20
0725010606 138S 824E 20
0725010612 133S 809E 20
0725010618 128S 793E 20
0725010700 135S 787E 20
0725010706 144S 792E 20
0725010712 146S 774E 25
0725010718 148S 756E 30
0725010800 146S 743E 30
0725010806 148S 722E 30
0725010812 149S 702E 30
0725010818 150S 682E 30
0725010900 149S 658E 30
0725010906 144S 634E 30
0725010912 136S 616E 35
0725010918 136S 601E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091942
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 60.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

120H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE, WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. SINCE 17UTC, THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS COOLED
OVERALL, BECOMING MORE CURVED, INDICATING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
JUDGE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT ANALYSIS OF
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY NEVERTHELESS ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE IT
AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVED CLOUD STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT,
DIKELEDI'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45KT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR OUR
ANALYSIS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
WEST-NORTH-WEST AT A GOOD PACE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A LATE-DAY OR EVENING LANDING ON MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW ALONG TRACKS AMONG SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SYSTEMS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES FROM 60H
ONWARDS, WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS. THE
MAJORITY SCENARIO SUGGESTS AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY, WITH THE TRACK CURVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, DUE
TO A MORE OR LESS MARKED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDELINES, AND IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE AIFS
GUIDANCE PROPOSING A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE PRESENT FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THIS THURSDAY EVENING AND UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S WESTWARD
MOVEMENT. DIKELEDI IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM STRONG ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THESE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A BETTER SYMMETRIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
EVEN ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS FORECAST
FROM FRIDAY UNTIL LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED, BUT WILL POTENTIALLY
DEPEND ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S INTERNAL PHYSICS (EYE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE) OR ON AN INCREASE IN ALTITUDE STRESS COMBINED WITH
A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES LAND. IN WHICH
CASE, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY THAN
EXPECTED. DIKELEDI SHOULD PASS OVER MADAGASCAR DURING THE NIGHT OF
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LAND, BUT
SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN VERY WARM WATERS IN A
FAVOURABLE CONTEXT, BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST, THE
SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO THE GREATER OR LESSER INTERACTION WITH THE LAND. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COASTS, AS IS THE CASE FOR THIS
TRAJECTORY FORECAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER TRANSIT ON OR NEAR LAND,
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING BY TOMORROW FRIDAY MORNING.

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091942
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 60.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 285 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2025 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 10/01/2025 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 11/01/2025 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 11/01/2025 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 12/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 12/01/2025 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/01/2025 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

120H: 14/01/2025 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE INTENSE
ASSOCIEE A DE NOMBREUX IMPACTS ORAGEUX. DEPUIS 17UTC, LA STRUCTURE
NUAGEUSE S'EST GLOBALEMENT REFROIDIE EN ADOTANT DAVANTAGE DE
COURBURE, SIGNE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES MICRO-ONDE RA CENTES, IL EST DIFFICILE DE JUGER DE LA
POSITION EXACTE DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, MAIS L'ANALYSE DE
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE PERMET NEANMOINS DE L'ESTIMER EN
BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. AU VU DE
L'AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE ET DU CONTEXTE
ENVIRONNEMENTAL FAVORABLE, L'INTENSITE DE DIKELEDI EST PORTEE A 45KT.
CETTE DONNEE EST CONFIRMEE PAR L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES GUIDANCES RESTENT TOUJOURS UN PEU TROP
AU SUD PAR RAPPORT A L'ANALYSE. DIKELEDI VA POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES
36 PROCHAINES HEURES UNE DIRECTION VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST A BON
RYTHME EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LES MODELES
RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD CONCERNANT UN ATTERRISSAGE SAMEDI EN FIN
DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE SUR MADAGASCAR. TOUTEFOIS, ON NOTE ENCORE
QUELQUES ALONG TRACK PARMI CERTAINES GUIDANCES.L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE GRANDIT A PARTIR DE 60H AVEC UNE FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE
LES MODELES. LE SCENARIO MAJORITAIRE PROPOSE UNE RESSORTIE DIMANCHE
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN INCURVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST, DU A UNE FAIBLESSE PLUS OU MOINS
MARQUEE DE LA BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES, ET SUIT ACTUELLEMENT LA GUIDANCE AIFS PROPOSANT UN BON
CONSENS DE LA PRESENTE PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES S'AMELIORER
PROGRESSIVEMENT CE JEUDI SOIR ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR, AVEC UNE
INFLUENCE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST DUE AU DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. DIKELEDI BENEFICIE EGALEMENT D'UNE FORTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COMME LE MONTRE LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITAIRES. CES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES VONT
FAVORISER UNE MEILLEUR SYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES 48
PROCHAINES HEURES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT MEME
ACCENTUER LE RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DANS LES 24 A 36
PROCHAINES HEURES. DANS CE CONTEXTE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST
PREVU A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR
SAMEDI. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLUE,
MAIS DEPENDRA POTENTIELLEMENT DES FLUCTUATIONS DE LA PHYSIQUE INTERNE
DU SYSTEME (RENOUVELLEMENT DU CYCLE DE L'OEIL) OU ENCORE D'UNE HAUSSE
DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE COMBINA E A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME A L'APPROCHE DES TERRES. AUQUEL CAS, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ACCOSTER AVEC UNE INTENSITE LEGEREMENT MOINS FORTE QUE
PREVUE. DIKELEDI DEVRAIT TRANSITER SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES DANS LA
NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT PAR INTERACTION AVEC LES
TERRES, MAIS DEVRAIT GARDER SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES POUR
RESSORTIR ENSUITE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DIMANCHE. DE RETOUR SUR
DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES DANS UN CONTEXTE FAVORABLE, MAIS
POTENTIELLEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE EN RAISON DE
L'INTERACTION PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE AVEC LES TERRES. SI LE SYSTEME
RESTE SUFFISAMMENT LOIN DES COTES COMME CELA EST LE CAS POUR CETTE
PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS
POUR S'INTENSIFIER, MAIS DANS LE CAS D'UN TRANSIT PLUS LONG SUR LES
TERRES OU PRES DES TERRES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SERAIT BIEN PLUS
FAIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M CETTE NUIT. AMELIORATION DES DEMAIN VENDREDI
MATIN.

TROMELIN :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M VENDREDI ET SAMEDI MATIN. AMELIORATION SAMEDI EN
JOURNEE.

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES EN SOIREE DE
SAMEDI A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (SITUEE QUELQUEPART
ENTRE SAMBAVA ET ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT 8 A 10
METRES PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE LE
LONG DE LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE
LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT
200-300 MM EN 24H PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET 150-200 MM SUR LE
RELIEF MONTAGNEUX EXPOSE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091812
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 60.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 155 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
14.0 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE IN THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHEREAS IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING ON ITS
SOUTHERN SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRY REFLECTS THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY MID-SHEAR. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AREA AND HAS PARTLY BEEN
ESTIMATED THANKS TO MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ESPECIALLY THE 10Z AMSR2. IN
THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT STATIONARY AT 40 KT.

DIKELEDI'S CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST BY
MOST MODELS, AND IT IS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. THIS FAST-MOVING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, FOLLOWING A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
TRACK GROWS FROM 60H ONWARDS, WITH STRONG DISPERSION IN THE NWP
OUTPUT. THE FAVORED SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OUT
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SUNDAY, CURVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN
SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING, WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR ALLOWING BETTER SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS VERY
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
ENHANCE CHANCES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT A NEW RISE OF WIND
SHEAR ON SATURDAY, COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT,
COULD MORE OR LESS LEVEL THE STORM'S INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS OVER MADAGASCAR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BUT RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS,
BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK OVER WARM
WATERS IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY
COAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO GREATER OR LESSER LAND INTERACTION. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (VERY WARM WATERS, FURTHER DECREASING
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE), BUT IN THE CASE OF A LONGER
TRANSIT OVER LAND OR NEAR LAND, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAMBAVA AND
ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 6 TO 8
METRES NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 150-200 MM IN 24
HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND ON EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY OVER MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 61.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 0

24H: 10/01/2025 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 11/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 11/01/2025 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 12/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 12/01/2025 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/01/2025 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 0

120H: 14/01/2025 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE INTENSE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME TANDIS QU'ELLE S'EST AFFAIBLIE DU
COTE SUD. CETTE ASYMETRIE TEMOIGNE DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT
MODERE DE SUD-EST. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST SITUE EN BORDURE SUD DE
LA CONVECTION ET ESTIME EN PARTIE GRACE A L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES,
NOTAMMENT L'AMSR2 VERS 10Z. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES,
L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE STATIONNAIRE, A 40 KT.

LE CENTRE DE DIKELEDI A CONTINUE A SE SITUER UN PEU PLUS AU NORD QUE
PREVU PAR LA PLUPART DES MODELES ET AVEC UNE MOUVEMENT UN PEU PLUS
RAPIDE. CETTE TENDANCE UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU
MOINS A COURT TERME, SUIVANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST A
OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD CONCERNANT UN
ATTERRISSAGE SAMEDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE SUR MADAGASCAR.
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE GRANDIT A PARTIR DE 60H AVEC UNE
FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES. LE SCENARIO MAJORITAIRE PROPOSE UNE
RESSORTIE DIMANCHE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN INCURVANT LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST, DU A UNE FAIBLESSE
PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE DANS LA DORSALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONTINUENT A
S'AMELIORER CE JEUDI SOIR ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR, AVEC UNE BAISSE
PREVUE DU CISAILLEMENT PERMETTANT UNE MEILLEUR SYMETRISATION DU
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, AINSI QU'UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT ACCENTUER
LE RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DANS LES 24 A 36 PROCHAINES
HEURES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST AINSI PREVU A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI ET JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR SAMEDI. UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLUE, MAIS UNE
NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT SAMEDI, COMBINEE A UN RALENTISSEMENT
DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, POURRAIENT TOUTEFOIS FAIRE PLAFONNER
L'INTENSITE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES
DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT PAR INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES, MAIS DEVRAIT GARDER SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
POUR RESSORTIR ENSUITE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DIMANCHE. DE
RETOUR SUR DES EAUX CHAUDES DANS UN CONTEXTE FAVORABLE, MAIS
RELATIVEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE EN RAISON DE
L'INTERACTION PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE AVEC LES TERRES. SI LE SYSTEME
RESTE SUFFISAMMENT LOIN DES COTES, IL DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE BONNES
CONDITIONS POUR S'INTENSIFIER (EAUX TRES CHAUDES, NOUVELLE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), MAIS DANS LE CAS D'UN
TRANSIT PLUS LONG SUR LES TERRES OU PRES DES TERRES, L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME SERAIT BIEN PLUS FAIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
- AMELIORATION EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.

TROMELIN :
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M VENDREDI ET SAMEDI MATIN.
- AMELIORATION SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE LA MI-JOURNEE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES EN SOIREE DE
SAMEDI A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (SITUEE QUELQUEPART
ENTRE SAMBAVA ET ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT 6 A 8
METRES PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE LE
LONG DE LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE
LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT
150-200 MM EN 24H PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET SUR LE RELIEF
MONTAGNEUX EXPOSE. PLUIES FORTES POUVANT SE PROLONGER DIMANCHE SUR LA
PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
13.9 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
13.6 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 63.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/09 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN,
FORMING A CURVED BAND WRAPPING TWO-THIRDS TO THREE-QUARTERS AROUND
THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. F17 AND F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0114Z AND 0138Z
CONFIRM THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF
MORE PRECISE OBJECTIVE DATA, INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF
DVORAK ANALYSIS, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT.

DIKELEDI'S CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST, AND ITS
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST,
GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SATURDAY EVENING LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK GROWS FROM 60H ONWARDS.
THE RSMC FORECAST SUGGESTS AN EXIT ON SUNDAY INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, CURVING SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RECEDES OVER THE
BASIN. AT THESE TIMES, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR,
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS THURSDAY AND INTO TOMORROW FRIDAY, WITH DECREASING WIND SHEAR
ALLOWING BETTER SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS VERY GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE
CHANCES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY UNTIL LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSIFICATION
IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT A NEW RISE OF WIND SHEAR ON
SATURDAY, COMBINED WITH A SLOWDOWN IN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, COULD
MORE OR LESS LEVEL THE STORM'S INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER
MADAGASCAR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION BUT RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE
EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN WARM WATERS
IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT, BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE GREATER OR LESSER LAND INTERACTION. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE COAST, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (VERY WARM WATERS, FURTHER
DECREASE IN SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE), BUT IN THE CASE OF A
LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT-BRANDON:
- WITH A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE TRACK, THE PROBABILITY OF GALES IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LOW.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- WITH A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE TRACK, THE PROBABILITY OF GALES IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LOW.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM 12UTC ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING
AND NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA (LOCATED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND ANTSIRANANA).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST, LOCALLY 6 TO 8
METRES NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND OVER THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA
PROVINCE. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 100 MM AND LOCALLY 150-200 MM IN 24
HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND ON EXPOSED MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY OVER MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090702
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 63.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2025 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 10/01/2025 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 10/01/2025 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 11/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 11/01/2025 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 12/01/2025 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/01/2025 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 0

120H: 14/01/2025 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE A SE
RENFORCER EN S'ORGANISANT EN BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT SUR DEUX
TIERS A TROIS QUARTS DE TOUR. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN
DT DE 3.0, EN ACCORD AVEC LE MET ET LE PT. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
SSMIS F17 ET F16 DE 0114Z ET 0138Z CONFIRMENT L'AMELIORATION DE
STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES OBJECTIVES PLUS
PRECISES, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE SUR LA BASE DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK,
AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 40 KT.

LE CENTRE DE DIKELEDI SE SITUE UN PEU PLUS AU NORD QUE PREVU ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE A ETE LEGEREMENT DECALEE VERS LE NORD PAR RAPPORT AUX
PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST
A OUEST-NORD-OUEST, GUIDE EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD CONCERNANT UN
ATTERRISSAGE SAMEDI SOIR SUR MADAGASCAR. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE GRANDIT A PARTIR DE 60H. LA PREVISION DU CMRS PROPOSE UNE
RESSORTIE DIMANCHE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN INCURVANT SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, DU AU RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE SITUEE SUR
LE BASSIN. A CES ECHEANCES LA CONFIANCE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EST
MOINDRE DU FAIT DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA SOLIDITE DE LA DORSALE AU SUD
DE MADAGASCAR, SE TRADUISANT PAR UNE IMPORTANTE DISPERSION ENTRE RUNS
DE MODELES. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONTINUENT A
S'AMELIORER CE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A DEMAIN VENDREDI, AVEC UNE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT PERMETTANT UNE MEILLEUR SYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME, AINSI
QU'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT ACCENTUER LE RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DANS LES 24 A
36 PROCHAINES HEURES. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST AINSI PREVU A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR SAMEDI
SOIR. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FORTE N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLUE,
MAIS UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT SAMEDI, COMBINEE A UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, POURRAIENT TOUTEFOIS FAIRE
PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER SUR LES TERRES
MALGACHES DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT PAR
INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES, MAIS DEVRAIT GARDER SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES POUR RESSORTIR ENSUITE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE
DIMANCHE. DE RETOUR SUR DES EAUX CHAUDES DANS UN CONTEXTE FAVORABLE,
MAIS RELATIVEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE EN RAISON DE
L'INTERACTION PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANTE AVEC LES TERRES. SI LE SYSTEME
RESTE SUFFISAMMENT LOIN DES COTES, IL DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE BONNES
CONDITIONS POUR S'INTENSIFIER (EAUX TRES CHAUDES, NOUVELLE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), MAIS DANS LE CAS D'UN
TRANSIT PLUS LONG SUR LES TERRES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SERAIT BIEN
PLUS FAIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

SAINT-BRANDON :
- AVEC UN DECALAGE PLUS AU NORD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA PROBABILITE DE
COUP DE VENT EST DESORMAIS ESTIMEE TRES FAIBLE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
- AMELIORATION EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.

TROMELIN :
- AVEC UN DECALAGE PLUS AU NORD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA PROBABILITE DE
COUP DE VENT EST DESORMAIS ESTIMEE TRES FAIBLE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M VENDREDI ET SAMEDI MATIN.
- AMELIORATION SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT SAMEDI A PARTIR DE 12UTC SUR LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES EN SOIREE ET
NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
(SITUEE QUELQUEPART ENTRE ANTALAHA ET ANTSIRANANA).
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST, LOCALEMENT 6 A 8
METRES PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE LE
LONG DE LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SUR LE NORD DE
LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE PLUS DE 100 MM ET LOCALEMENT
150-200 MM EN 24H PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET SUR LE RELIEF
MONTAGNEUX EXPOSE. PLUIES FORTES POUVANT SE PROLONGER DIMANCHE SUR LA
PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090630
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 63.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
14.3 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
14.0 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 66.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED LITTLE UP TO 21UTC,
THEN CERTAINLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
SECTOR, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY STRENGTHENED, LEAVING AN
ESTIMATED CENTER IN A MUCH MORE PRESENT CONVECTIVE MASS. THE CURVED
BAND CONFIGURATION IS THUS BETTER DEFINED, WITH A WINDING THAT NOW
JUSTIFIES A CI OF 2.5+. SYSTEM 05 THUS PASSES THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35KT. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER DATA TO VALIDATE THIS ESTIMATE MADE BY THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS, AND THE F18 MICROWAVE PASS AT 2320UTC REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO EXPLOIT. AT 00UTC, THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
NAMED DIKELEDI.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARDS, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE BASIN. ON THIS SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THAN BEFORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF
SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRAJECTORY RIGHT UP TO THE LANDFALL
SCHEDULED FOR LATE SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE THE LANDFALL. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
TRACK IS THEREFORE GROWING FROM THESE 72-HOUR INTERVALS. THE RSMC
FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY, CURVING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST AS A RESULT OF THE
RETREAT OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN. AT THESE TIMES,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS REDUCED BY UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE'S EASTWARD RETREAT, RESULTING IN GREATER VARIABILITY IN THE
RUNS FOR SOME MODELS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES, BUT OPTING FOR A TRACK THAT TAKES THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COAST THAN PREVIOUSLY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THERE IS NO OVERALL CONSENSUS. ON
THE WHOLE, THE RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDELINES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (WITH DRY AMBIENT AIR NEAR THE
CENTER, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FADING), ALLOWING A PHASE OF REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION TO SET IN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION
WILL THEN BECOME MORE MARKED, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD ON FRIDAY AND REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA AT A MATURE STAGE LATE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND, WEAKENING, BUT RETAINING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY. BACK IN WARM WATERS IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BUT RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT
GRADUALLY. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTING FOR
A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN MOST OF THE LATEST MODELS. IN THE CASE OF A
LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WIND PROBABLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- GALE FORCE WINDS PROBABLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLE WITH WAVES 4 TO 6M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR - ANTSIRANANA AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SATURDAY, STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER MAINLY OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WAVES BETWEEN
4 AND 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY OVER MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090053
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 66.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 345 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/01/2025 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 175 NO: 0

24H: 10/01/2025 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 10/01/2025 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 11/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 11/01/2025 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 12/01/2025 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/01/2025 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 305 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

120H: 14/01/2025 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A PEU EVOLUE JUSQU'A
21UTC PUIS CERTANEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE CONVERGENCE DANS LE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST GRANDEMENT RENFORCEE LAISSANT
UN CENTRE ESTIME DANS UNE MASSE CONVECTIVE BIEN PLUS PRESENTE. LA
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE EST AINSI MIEUX DEFINIE AVEC UN
ENROULEMENT JUSTIFIANT MAINTENANT UN CI DE 2.5+. LE SYSTEME 05 PASSE
DONC LE SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX
ESTIMES A 35KT. MALHEURESUEMENT, AUCUNE DONNEE DIFFUSIOMETRIQUE NE
PERMET DE VALIDER CETTE ESTIMATION FAITE PAR L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET LA
PASSE MICRO-ONDE F18 DE 2320UTC RESTE DIFFICILE A EXPLOITER. A 00UTC,
LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A DONC BAPTISE DIKELEDI.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIREAU COURS DE
PROCHAINES 72H. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU DE SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST,
GUIDEE EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE CENTREE SUR LE
BASSIN. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS NORD DE PRECEDEMMENT, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU NORD DE SAINT-BRANDON ET DE TROMELIN A
ECHEANCE DE JEUDI/VENDREDI. LES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ET CE JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, MEME SI UNE LEGERE TENDANCE AU RALENTISSEMENT
AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE APPARAIT PLUS FRANCHEMENT. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE GRANDIT DONC A PARTIR DE CES ECHEANCES DE 72H. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS PROPOSE UNE RESSORTIE DIMANCHE DANS LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE EN INCURVANT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, DU AU
RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE SITUEE SUR LE BASSIN. A CES ECHEANCES LA
CONFIANCE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MOINDRE DU FAIT DE L'INCERTITUDE DE
L'AMPLEUR DU RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE, SE TRADUISANT PAR UNE
VARIABILITE PLUS IMPORTANTE AU COURS DES RUNS POUR CERTAINS MODELES.
LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES EN OPTANT TOUTEFOIS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE FAISANT TRANSITER
LE SYSTEME PLUS PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES QUE PRECEDEMMENT.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, IL N'APPARAIT PAS DE CONSENSUS
GLOBAL. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS RESTE GLOBALEMENT UN PEU
PLUS ELEVEE QUE LA MAJORITE DES GUIDANCES. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT GRADUELLEMENT S'AMELIORER AU FIL DES
HEURES (AVEC NOTAMMENT DE L'AIR SEC AMBIANT PROCHE DU CENTRE QUI
S'ESTOMPE ACTUELLEMENT) ET DONC LAISSER UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
REGULIERE SE METTRE EN PLACE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24-36H. PAR LA
SUITE, L'INTENSIFICATION SERA PLUS FRANCHE ET PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME
D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL CE VENDREDI ET POURRAIT
AINSI ATTERRIR SUR LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA A UN
STADE MATURE EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
TRANSITER SUR LES TERRES EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT MAIS DEVRAIT GARDER SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES POUR RESSORTIR ENSUITE DANS LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE DIMANCHE. DE RETOUR SUR DES EAUX CHAUDES DANS UN CONTEXTE
FAVORABLE, MAIS RELATIVEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU, MAIS GRADUELLEMENT. ON RAPELLE
TOUTEFOIS LA FORTE INCERTITUDE QUAND A L'INTENSIFICATION MAXIMALE DU
SYSTEME CAR IL N'Y A PAS DE CONSENSUS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES,
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTANT PLUTOT POUR UNE INTENSITE
SUPERIEURE A CELLE DE LA PLUPART DES DERNIERS MODELES. DANS LE CAS
D'UN TRANSIT PLUS LONG SUR LES TERRES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME SERAIT
BIEN PLUS FAIBLE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

SAINT BRANDON :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
- MER TRES FORTE PROBABLE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M ENTRE JEUDI ET
VENDREDI.
- AMELIORATION EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.

TROMELIN :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
- MER TRES FORTE PROBABLE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6M VENDREDI ET
SAMEDI.
- AMELIORATION EN COURS DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR - PROVINCES DE ANTSIRANANA ET MAHAJANGA
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE SAMEDI, VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ET OURAGAN
POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LA PROVINCE DE
ANTSIRANANA.
- MER TRES FORTE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIREE AVEC DES VAGUES
COMPRISES ENTRE 4 ET 6 METRES ENTRE LE CAP D'AMBRE ET LE CAP EST.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLE DES SAMEDI LE LONG DE LA COTE EST DE LA
PROVINCE DE ANTSIRANANA ET SE PROLONGEANT DIMANCHE SUR LA PROVINCE DE
MAHAJANGA.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090000
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 66.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=