Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SARA-24
in Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150255
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Radar data from Belize shows heavy rainfall from Sara continues to
spread over portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and
Honduras tonight. There has been some increase in deep convection
closer to the center of the storm this evening. A recent Air Force
Hurricane Hunter flight leg over the northern semicircle found
925-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which supports an initial
intensity of 40 kt. The flight-level wind data also indicated that
the center of Sara is likely just inland or very near the
northeastern coast of Honduras, and the center was somewhat
elongated west to east.

Sara is moving westward (270/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge
centered over the Gulf of Mexico. A slower westward motion is
expected over the next couple of days, with the center of Sara
forecast to move along or very near the coast of northern Honduras.
As the ridge slides eastward later this weekend, Sarah should turn
toward the west-northwest by late Saturday and move across the Gulf
of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize on Sunday. The
updated NHC track prediction is nudged slightly south in the short
term, but generally lies between the latest simple and corrected
consensus aids (TVCA/HCCA) with little overall change from the
previous forecast.

While the environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for
some intensification, Sara's relatively broad structure and
proximity to land are likely to inhibit significant strengthening.
Given the slight southward track adjustment, little intensity change
is expected in the short term while the storm continues to interact
with land along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Some further
strengthening is forecast thereafter once Sara turns
west-northwestward and moves over water. The updated NHC forecast
shows a similar peak intensity as the previous prediction, in best
agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Once again, a more
northern track than forecast could result in additional
strengthening. The storm is forecast to move inland over Belize on
Sunday and quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This forecast shows dissipation by day 4, as the global models agree
that the low-level circulation of Sara is unlikely to survive its
trek across the Yucatan Peninsula.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over
northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern
coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of
Belize on Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some further strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the
northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern
coast of Honduras during the next couple of days and approach the
coast of Belize on Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the
center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 998
mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142057 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section

...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains
offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 142044
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve
especially over the western semicircle of the system after the
release of the 1500 UTC advisory. A couple of Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early
this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum
pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt.
These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm
Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support
35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that
value.

The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected.
The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. Sara
should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to
the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued
deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected. By Sunday, the
center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which
should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches
Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of
the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track continues to
be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is
in good agreement with the latest consensus aids.

Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening
during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is
the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to
land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the
northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested
by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little
change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan
peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could
result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most
of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global
models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it
moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not
likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the
new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.



KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of northern Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 142044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 83.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142044
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains
offshore of the northern coast of Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through
today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The
system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras
late Friday and through the weekend.

Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over
water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.11.2024 15.7N 82.5W WEAK
00UTC 15.11.2024 16.3N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2024 16.4N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2024 16.1N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2024 15.9N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2024 16.6N 86.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 16.6N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 17.2N 88.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.9N 117.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2024 11.9N 117.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2024 11.5N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2024 11.1N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2024 11.0N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2024 10.9N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 11.1N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 11.0N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2024 10.6N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2024 10.3N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2024 9.5N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 34.3N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2024 34.3N 75.0W WEAK
00UTC 16.11.2024 32.3N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2024 31.0N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2024 31.7N 61.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 38.3N 58.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 39.6N 57.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.11.2024 42.4N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.11.2024 43.8N 55.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2024 47.4N 55.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.11.2024 46.4N 60.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 8.2N 135.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.11.2024 8.1N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 8.2N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 8.3N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2024 8.6N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2024 8.9N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141613


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2024 0 15.7N 82.5W 1004 27
0000UTC 15.11.2024 12 16.3N 83.9W 1003 25
1200UTC 15.11.2024 24 16.4N 85.8W 1003 34
0000UTC 16.11.2024 36 16.1N 85.6W 1003 31
1200UTC 16.11.2024 48 15.9N 86.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 16.6N 86.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 16.6N 87.6W 1004 29
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 17.2N 88.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.9N 117.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2024 12 11.9N 117.9W 1007 20
1200UTC 15.11.2024 24 11.5N 118.9W 1007 22
0000UTC 16.11.2024 36 11.1N 119.6W 1006 23
1200UTC 16.11.2024 48 11.0N 120.0W 1007 24
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 10.9N 120.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 11.1N 119.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 11.0N 119.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 10.6N 120.0W 1008 27
0000UTC 19.11.2024 108 10.3N 120.5W 1007 25
1200UTC 19.11.2024 120 9.5N 121.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 20.11.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 34.3N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2024 24 34.3N 75.0W 1001 45
0000UTC 16.11.2024 36 32.3N 71.0W 994 44
1200UTC 16.11.2024 48 31.0N 66.6W 994 42
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 31.7N 61.2W 995 39
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 38.3N 58.6W 991 44
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 39.6N 57.8W 986 40
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 42.4N 57.7W 979 39
0000UTC 19.11.2024 108 43.8N 55.6W 976 39
1200UTC 19.11.2024 120 47.4N 55.3W 980 32
0000UTC 20.11.2024 132 46.4N 60.8W 988 32
1200UTC 20.11.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 8.2N 135.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 8.1N 136.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 8.2N 139.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 8.3N 142.9W 1007 29
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 8.6N 145.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.11.2024 108 8.9N 148.7W 1007 24
1200UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141613


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 141450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become
better organized this morning, with improved curved banding
features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level
center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from
both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which
will provide more information on current intensity and structure.

The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12
kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will
continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The
ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in
weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should
slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move
northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track
forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and
is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains
over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction
there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the
model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the
system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely
maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the
depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system
could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track
adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle
of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system
could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including
Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these
areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Honduras and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the
coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near
the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 141448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 82.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141148
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening, if it remains over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been
improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which
shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt
based on the Dvorak estimates.

Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later
today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras,
and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak
steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days
of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable
westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as
the bulk of the latest model guidance.

Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities.
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However,
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance
envelope beyond 36 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 81.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening, if it remains over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning late today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 81.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 81.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion should continue for
another day or so, taking the system across the western Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north
coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 81.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2024 0 16.1N 81.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 14.11.2024 12 15.7N 82.0W 1003 27
0000UTC 15.11.2024 24 15.5N 83.6W 1003 25
1200UTC 15.11.2024 36 16.1N 85.2W 1003 28
0000UTC 16.11.2024 48 16.2N 85.8W 1002 26
1200UTC 16.11.2024 60 16.1N 86.3W 1003 31
0000UTC 17.11.2024 72 16.2N 85.7W 1005 27
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 16.2N 87.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 18.11.2024 96 16.6N 87.8W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 18.6N 89.4W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 25.5N 59.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2024 0 25.5N 59.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 14.11.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 8.9N 131.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2024 48 8.9N 132.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 16.11.2024 60 8.6N 134.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 17.11.2024 72 8.4N 136.8W 1006 29
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 8.3N 140.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 18.11.2024 96 8.7N 143.2W 1007 30
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 9.0N 146.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 33.4N 74.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2024 48 32.2N 71.7W 992 49
1200UTC 16.11.2024 60 31.1N 67.6W 995 39
0000UTC 17.11.2024 72 31.5N 62.1W 997 42
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.7N 108.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 16.7N 108.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 18.11.2024 96 16.5N 106.5W 1006 30
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 16.4N 104.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.3N 118.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 11.1N 118.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 10.8N 118.8W 1007 26
1200UTC 19.11.2024 132 10.1N 119.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 20.11.2024 144 9.1N 120.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 20.11.2024 156 10.0N 121.2W 1009 26
0000UTC 21.11.2024 168 10.2N 122.8W 1008 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140412


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Sal eastward to the border with Nicaragua and for the Bay
Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow westward motion should
continue for another day or two, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours
with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the
estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well
organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor,
and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression.
The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is
around 1005 mb based on surface observations.

The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits.
This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track
until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern
Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the
models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents
from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will
cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region,
likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central
America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established
over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the
system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
various consensus models.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during
the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and
mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the
system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty
in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the
next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely
take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions
and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if
the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably
less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140233
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 80.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132330
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 79.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue
for another day or two, taking the system across the western
Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander
near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132053
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend.
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea.
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132049
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend.
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea.
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Honduras/Nicaragua Border southward to Puerto Cabezas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.2 North, longitude 79.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward motion should continue during
the next few days, with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the
western Caribbean Sea and slow as it nears the coast of Central
America.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue
strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 132047
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY