Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PATTY-24
in Portugal

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Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 041439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Patty Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

...PATTY DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 16.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Patty were located near
latitude 38.5 North, longitude 16.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, the remnants of Patty
are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75
millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across
portions of Portugal and western Spain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 041440
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Patty Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

Satellite images and satellite derived wind data indicate that the
low-level center of Patty has become elongated, and opened into a
trough over the northeastern Atlantic. Therefore, the system is no
longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory.

The remnants of Patty will turn toward the east-northeast later
today. Between tonight and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions
of Portugal and western Spain is possible from the remnants of
Patty.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 38.5N 16.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...Dissipated

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 041439
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 16.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 300SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 16.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 17.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 16.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040848
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

This morning's METSAT-10 satellite imagery presentation consists of
a fragmented curved band with -30C to -40C cloud tops displaced to
the east of the exposed elongated surface center. A blend of the
TAFB and SAB subjective and UW-CIMSS objective technique satellite
intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt for this
advisory.

Although Patty's cloud pattern is typical of a sheared tropical
cyclone, the FSU cyclone phase diagram based on the GFS and ECMWF
models indicates an asymmetric deep cold core thermal structure.
Despite the sub-23C oceanic sea surface temperatures, the very cold
upper-tropospheric temperatures are more than likely supporting
sufficient thermodynamic instability to produce the remaining
convection associated with the cyclone. The vertical tilt with
height is becoming more pronounced due to the strong westerly shear
and Patty should spin down while losing what remains of the
convection and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The
global models agree with Patty opening up into a trough by the 36
hr period and the official forecast follows suit.

Patty's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 070/17 kt.
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected today and this motion
should continue until it dissipates on Tuesday. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous one and closely follows the various
consensus aids.

Key messages:

1. Between late today and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions
of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its
remnants.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 38.2N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040847
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 18.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 240SE 300SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 18.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 19.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 18.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040847
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

...PATTY QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 18.0W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 18.0 West. Patty is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn
toward the east-northeast is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Patty can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, Patty or its remnants
are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75
millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across
portions of Portugal and western Spain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

Patty has continued producing deep convection since the time of the
previous advisory, although the convective structure has recently
degraded slightly on the latest infrared images. The infrared
satellite images and an 03/2138 UTC ASCAT pass depict a more compact
cyclone with a confined radius of maximum winds than earlier in the
system's life. Patty is also no longer co-located with the
upper-level low that was earlier responsible for its hybrid
characteristics. Based on these observations, Patty has made the
transition into a tropical storm. The earlier ASCAT pass showed
tropical storm force winds as high as 39 kt in the southern
semicircle. The initial intensity is therefore held at 40 kt.

The initial motion of the tropical storm is estimated to be
eastward, or 085/17 kt. Patty is expected to turn
east-northeastward over the next day, and only a slight northward
adjustment was made to the previous forecast, closer to the latest
track consensus guidance.

All guidance insists Patty will weaken significantly during the next
day or two as the cyclone encounters progressively colder
sea-surface temperatures, stronger vertical wind shear and drier
air. Although the timing of when Patty is forecast to lose its
convection and become post-tropical has been pushed back slightly,
confidence is fairly high that the system will be falling apart and
weakening in a day or two. The various global models agree that
Patty should open up into a trough and dissipate by hour 48, around
the time that the circulation reaches the west coast of the Iberian
Peninsula. Due to orographic lifting, some rainfall impacts appear
possible for portions of Portugal and Spain from Patty's remnants.

Key messages:

1. Between late Monday and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions
of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its
remnants.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 37.7N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

...PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 20.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 20.0 West. Patty is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Patty is
forecast to become post-tropical in the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Patty can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, Patty or its remnants are
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75
millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across
portions of Portugal and western Spain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040234
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 20.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 360SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 20.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 21.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 20.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 032032
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day,
thunderstorms have reformed near the center of Patty. Therefore,
Patty will hold its subtropical storm designation for now. The
initial intensity is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier
scatterometer data. However, strong vertical wind shear, dry
mid-latitude air, and cool sea surface temperatures should weaken
Patty during the next couple of days. No changes have been made to
the latest NHC intensity forecast.

The storm is moving eastward at 15 kt and is forecast to move
eastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Patty
is still expected to open into a trough near or over western Europe,
and only minor adjustments have been made to the official track
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 37.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 37.7N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1800Z 38.9N 14.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 41.2N 8.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 22.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 22.3 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical low by early Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through
early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 032031
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 22.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 480SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 22.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 23.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.7N 19.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.9N 14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.2N 8.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 22.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031747
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
600 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE AZORES...
...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 23.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for all of the Azores.

For additional storm information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 23.5 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h) and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to
continue moving away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later tonight.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through
early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 031434
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

Patty is beginning to pull away from the Azores, with the center
now just east of the easternmost islands. The storm is also on
its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone as deep convection has
been absent for more than 6 hours. Recent ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B
passes show peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that
data and the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity
is lowered to 40 kt. The strongest winds are occurring on the
system's south side, just south of the easternmost Azores.

Very strong westerly vertical wind shear, stable air, and cool
waters should continue to cause weakening, and Patty will likely
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Dissipation has been moved up to 60 h based on the latest global
model guidance.

Patty is moving eastward at 14 kt in relatively zonal flow, and an
eastward to east-northeastward toward western Europe is expected
until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 37.5N 24.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 37.3N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 38.3N 16.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 39.7N 12.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 40.8N 10.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 031433
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 24.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 480SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 24.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 25.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.3N 21.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.3N 16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.7N 12.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 10.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 24.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 24.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 24.3 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h) and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to
pull away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031142
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
1200 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 25.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 25.5 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h), and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move
near the southeastern Azores during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to
the south and southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the
next several hours.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

The center of Patty passed south of Terceira Island early this
morning and is now approaching Sao Miguel Island in the southeastern
Azores. Satellite images reveal the convective structure of the
storm has degraded, with warming cloud tops and limited convection
that has become displaced to the north and east of the center. Based
on these trends and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the
intensity of Patty is lowered to 45 kt. The strongest winds are
likely occurring to the south and southwest of the center.
Scatterometer passes expected later this morning should provide more
clarity on the storm's wind structure and current intensity.

Patty is moving quickly eastward (090/16 kt) within mid-latitude
westerlies over the northeastern Atlantic. A turn toward the
east-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, in good agreement
with the tightly clustered track guidance. No major changes were
made to the updated NHC track forecast. The storm is already showing
ill effects from westerly shear and dry air on its west side, and
the environmental conditions are not expected to improve during the
next couple of days. Therefore more weakening is anticipated, and
Patty could lose organized convection and degenerate to a
post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Monday. Then, the global
models indicate the low should gradually fill and eventually open
into a trough by midweek near the coast of Portugal.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Azores
today, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through early
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 37.9N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 37.7N 22.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 14.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 10.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 42.1N 8.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030840
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 26.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 26.0 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h), and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move
near the southeastern Azores today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by
early Monday and dissipate by midweek.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly
to the south and southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
today.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030839
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 26.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 360SE 540SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 26.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 26.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 22.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.1N 18.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.4N 14.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.9N 10.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 42.1N 8.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 26.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030543
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
600 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY PASSING SOUTH OF TERCEIRA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 26.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 26.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move
near or just south of the Azores through today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Patty
is forecast to become a post-tropical low on Monday and dissipate by
midweek.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to
the south and southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
today.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030232
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 27.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 480SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 27.8W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 28.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.6N 24.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.6N 20.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 16.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N 12.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.6N 9.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 27.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY CONTINUING TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 27.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
the weekend.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move
near or just south of the Azores through the overnight period.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical low late this weekend or Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to
the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
the weekend. For more information, see products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030232
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

The convective structure of Patty has changed some over the past
several hours as the center passes just south of the central
Azores. While the cloud tops have cooled, the convection is now
mainly to the northeast of the center, and the overall cloud pattern
is elongated south-to-north. The system remains embedded in a
deep-layer cold air mass, with surface temperatures in the Azores
currently below 20C. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased
a little due to the decreased convective symmetry, and this is the
basis for lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt.

Patty is expected to weaken over the next few days as the parent
upper-level low decays to an open trough, leaving the storm in
stronger shear. While this happens, it should also move into a
drier and more stable airmass. This combination is expected to
cause the convection to dissipate by 36 h, with the storm becoming
a post-tropical low at that time. The latest global model guidance
suggests that the remnant low is likely to decay to a trough by 72
h, so the new intensity forecast now calls for dissipation by then.

The initial motion is now 095/17 kt. The mid-latitude westerly
flow is expected to steer the cyclone eastward for 12-24 h,
followed by an east-northeastward motion. The models remain in
fairly good agreement, and the forecast track is again near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the
weekend, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 37.9N 27.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 37.6N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 37.6N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 38.5N 16.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0000Z 40.1N 12.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/1200Z 41.6N 9.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022335
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
1200 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

...PATTY PASSING NEAR THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...270 KM W OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
the weekend.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM GMT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 28.9 West. The storm is
moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of
the Azores through the overnight period.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty
is forecast to become a post-tropical low late this weekend or
Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
the weekend. For more information, see products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through the
weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 022032
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

Patty has not changed much during the past several hours. The storm
has been maintaining a small core, though the cloud tops are not as
cold as they were earlier today. The system is still co-located with
an upper-level low and dry and stable air continues to wrap around
the core region. These mixed tropical and extratropical
characteristics continue to support Patty's subtropical designation.
The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on the earlier ASCAT
data, but this is above the latest satellite estimates. Patty is
located about 60 n mi south of the westernmost Azores, and it will
be passing near the central and eastern Azores later tonight and
Sunday.

Weakening should begin soon as the parent upper-level low weakens,
leaving the storm in more stable conditions and stronger vertical
wind shear. The models suggest that the low could lose its core and
deep convection by late Sunday, which should cause it to become a
post-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours. Additional weakening is
expected after that, and the storm will likely dissipate in 3 to 4
days.

The subtropical storm is accelerating southeastward, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 125/16 kt. An eastward motion is expected
to begin overnight, taking Patty near or just south of the Azores
through Sunday. An east-northeastward motion is expected after that
toward western Europe. The models are in fairly good agreement, and
this forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
Sunday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through
Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 38.0N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 37.5N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 37.3N 23.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 37.8N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0600Z 40.5N 11.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 41.7N 9.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 022031
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 480SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 31.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.5N 27.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 150SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.3N 23.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 19.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.5N 11.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.7N 9.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 30.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

...PATTY NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES... .
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 30.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 30.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of
the Azores through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low late Sunday
or Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores
through Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021738
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
600 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

...PATTY NEARING THE AZORES... .
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THERE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 31.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 31.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster eastward
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of
the Azores tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by Sunday
night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight
and Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 021436
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

Patty has strengthened over the past several hours. Satellite images
continue to show the system maintaining a tight core with a ring of
cold cloud tops surrounding the center. On a larger scale, however,
the storm has a considerable amount of cool and dry air wrapping
around the core and it is co-located with an upper-level low. These
mixed tropical and extratropical characteristics are supportive of
maintaining Patty's subtropical status. ASCAT data from a few hours
ago showed peak winds near 50 kt in the southwestern quadrant, and
given potential undersampling due to the instrument's resolution,
the initial wind speed is increased to 55 kt. The wind radii have
also been adjusted based on the ASCAT data.

Patty is likely near its peak intensity as it currently lies in a
region of instability beneath its parent upper-level low and in
relatively low vertical wind shear. However, the models show the
upper-level feature weakening, resulting in more stable conditions
and increasing westerly vertical wind shear. These environmental
factors should cause steady weakening and lead to post-tropical
transition by Sunday night. The low is expected to dissipate in 3 to
4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is above the previous in the
short term due to the higher initial intensity.

The subtropical storm is accelerating southeastward, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 130/11 kt. A faster eastward motion is
expected to begin soon, taking the storm near or just south of the
Azores tonight and Sunday. An east-northeastward motion is expected
after that toward western Europe. The models are in fairly good
agreement, and this forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight and
Sunday.

2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through
Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 39.0N 32.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 38.2N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 37.8N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 37.8N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1200Z 38.7N 17.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 40.0N 13.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 41.6N 10.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021434
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

...PATTY STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 32.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 32.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster eastward
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of
the Azores tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few
days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by Sunday
night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight
and Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 021434
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 32.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 480SE 600SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 32.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 33.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.2N 29.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 150SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.8N 25.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.8N 21.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.7N 17.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N 13.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.6N 10.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 32.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 021205
TCUAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
1205 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for all the islands of the Azores.

The next advisory package will be issued at 1500 UTC.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020856
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring over the
northern Atlantic has gradually acquired subtropical characteristics
during the past 12-24 h. The low has become detached from fronts and
has a shallow warm-core structure, though it remains within a cooler
airmass behind a cold front over the eastern Atlantic. Despite SSTs
around 21 deg C, instability aloft has allowed the system to sustain
some moderate convection that wraps most of the way around its
center in geostationary and passive microwave images. Since the
wind field is asymmetric and the system remains co-located with an
upper-level low, it seems best classified as a subtropical cyclone,
which is consistent with ST2.5 classifications from TAFB. Thus, the
NHC is initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty. Earlier
partial scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds in the southern
semicircle, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt since it does
not appear the strongest winds were sampled by the instrument.

Patty is moving east-southeastward at 105/7 kt. The track guidance
is in very good agreement that Patty will move faster toward the
east-southeast through early Sunday, bringing the center near or
over portions of the Azores. Then, a turn toward the east and
east-northeast is expected through early next week as Patty is
steered by an upper-level trough. The NHC track forecast lies near
the center of the guidance envelope, generally between the simple
and corrected consensus aids.

Little change in strength is expected today, and Patty is forecast
to be a fairly short-lived subtropical cyclone. This is because
westerly shear is forecast to increase over the system during the
next couple of days, which will likely make it difficult for the
system to sustain convection near and around its center. Due to its
increasing forward speed, the strongest winds of Patty should
generally remain over the southern portion of the circulation during
its lifetime. Given the non-tropical origins of this system, the
NHC intensity forecast leans more heavily on the GFS and ECMWF
global models, which lie on the lower end of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 39.9N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 38.2N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 38.0N 23.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/0600Z 38.7N 19.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z 39.8N 15.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 41.3N 11.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020854
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 34.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 600SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 34.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 34.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 27.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 23.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 19.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.8N 15.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.3N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 34.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020854
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 34.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 34.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
east-southeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by
a turn toward the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little intensity change is expected today, but gradual weakening is
forecast through early next week. Patty could degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
Azores this weekend. See products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores for more information.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart