Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LANE-24
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 031449
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
700 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024

Lane has degenerated into a remnant low. The exposed low-level
circulation is well separated from deep convection associated with
the monsoon trough based on geostationary satellite imagery. The
low is expected to move just south of west for the next couple of
days in the near surface flow. Lane should open into a trough by
mid-week, however this could occur sooner. This is the last NHC
advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 11.1N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 04/0000Z 11.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 10.9N 134.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 10.7N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 031448
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
700 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024

...LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 132.0W
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane
was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 132.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11
km/h), and a slightly south of westward motion is expected for the
next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to
dissipate within the next couple of days or sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 031448
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 131.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.9N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 132.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030833
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024

Lane is fading fast. Strong southwesterly shear associated with the
flow on the southern side of a broad upper-level trough has
disrupted the circulation of the tropical cyclone. Recent
scatterometer data show that the low-level circulation center is
losing definition, and the maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt at
most. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the
associated deep convection, which was displaced well to the
northeast of the estimated center, is dissipating. Given the
current degradation of circulation and convection, the system is now
expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 12 hours.

The initial motion is slightly south of west at around 5 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next couple of days while
the system is steered by the shallow low-level easterlies. The
official track forecast has again been shifted slightly southward
to conform to the latest numerical guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 11.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 11.1N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0600Z 10.9N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 10.7N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024

...LANE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 131.0W
ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 131.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a
slightly south of westward motion is expected for the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Lane is
expected to become a remnant low later today, and dissipate within
the next couple of days or sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 131.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 131.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.1N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.9N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 131.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Lane's presentation on satellite imagery is quickly becoming
disheveled. This evening, a small burst of deep convection has
attempted to reform a little east of the estimated center. However,
an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 2155 UTC suggested the low-level
center was starting to separate from this deep convection due to
moderate mid- to deep-layer southwesterly shear. A partial ASCAT-B
pass did show winds up to 40 kt near the center at around 18 UTC,
but given the degradation in Lane's structure since that time, the
initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt, in best agreement with
the objective intensity estimates from AiDT and SATCON. Continued
southwesterly shear combined with increasingly dry environmental air
should result in Lane's demise as it loses identity within the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The latest NHC forecast shows
Lane becoming a remnant low in 24 h and opening up into a trough in
48 h. This evolution could occur sooner than forecast given current
trends and the fact several hurricane-regional model trackers
lose the vortex over the next day or so.

Lane still appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated
270/5 kt. As Lane becomes a shallow circulation, it will be
primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow on the north
side of the ITCZ, leading to a slow westward to west-southwestward
motion until the vortex dissipates. The latest NHC track
forecast is just a little south of the prior track, given the
southward shift in the guidance suite this cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

...LANE QUICKLY LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 130.7W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 130.7 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a general westward
to west-southwestward motion is expected for the next several days
before the cyclone dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue, and Lane could
become a remnant low tomorrow and open up into a trough by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 130.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 022037
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Satellite imagery depicts that Lane has been struggling the last
several hours, and appears more disorganized. The overall convective
canopy has deteriorated with warming cloud tops. Southwesterly shear
is starting to increase based on the latest visible images, and the
low-level center is located on the southwest edge of the convection.
Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have remained
steady throughout the day around 35 to 45 kt. Given the current
satellite presentation and using a blend of these satellite
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Lane continues to move generally westward at 270/6 kt, and this
general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm
is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one, with a slight nudge to
the left.

Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today, though
southwesterly shear is starting to increase over the system. This
shear combined with a drier airmass along the forecast track will
lead to a steady weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Lane is
forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 36 h,
although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even
sooner than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 022035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2024

...LANE HEADING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 130.3W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 022035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 021436
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the
low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range
from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a
blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to
40 kt for this advisory.

Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion
should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a
a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus
aids.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear
environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today.
Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the
storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week,
which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to
a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small
size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as
is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 021434
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2024

...LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 130.1W
ABOUT 1550 MI...2500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT
WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 021434
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Satellite images indicate the center of the small tropical cyclone
is likely embedded underneath a cold dense overcast. The deep
convection has been quite persistent tonight, and as a result the
objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to around 40
kt, while the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB
range from 30-35 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane, with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

Lane is moving westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should
continue over the next few days as the storm moves along the
southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. There was a
slight southward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle, and the
updated NHC track prediction was nudged in that direction. Warm
sea-surface temperatures and low shear conditions could allow Lane
to strengthen a little more today. However, southwesterly shear is
expected to increase over the storm on Sunday, which should then
induce weakening of the small tropical cyclone through early next
week. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low
in 48 h due to the negative effects of shear and drier environmental
air, and it could dissipate even sooner than forecast if the GFS
solution is correct.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020840
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 129.5W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 129.5 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today,
but weakening is forecast on Sunday through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020840
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024

The depression has changed little in organization during the past
several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing
a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level
center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the
last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion remains 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to
continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north. The latest track
guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier
guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a
little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope.

The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and
over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h.
While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane
models and the global models show little strengthening during this
time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore
calls for little change in strength. However, any strengthening
would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the
statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification.
After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system
to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area. A 72-h point as a
remnant low was added based on the global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2024

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 129.0W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H),
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 128.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 129.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Correct storm to cyclone in the second paragraph

The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to
become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this
morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection
near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite
intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30
kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical
Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of this tropical cyclone is westward at 270/6
kt. The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward
trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad
mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in
good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast
track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity
forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical
storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm
cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is
expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to
dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to
the IVCN consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012033
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024

The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to
become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this
morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection
near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite
intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30
kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical
Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of this tropical storm is westward at 270/6 kt.
The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward
trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad
mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in
good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast
track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity
forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical
storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm
cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is
expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to
dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to
the IVCN consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 012031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024
200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 128.4W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 128.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 012031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT=