Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KRISTY-24
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 271431
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Very strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment,
and cool waters have taken a toll on Kristy. The storm has lacked
organized deep convection since about 03Z, and it has generally
consisted of a low-level cloud swirl since that time. Therefore,
Kristy no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this
is the last advisory on this system. The initial wind speed is
lowered to 40 kt, assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT
pass overnight that showed maximum winds close to 50 kt.

The gale-force low is still moving north-northwestward at about 7
kt, but it is expected to turn to the west and west-southwest later
today and Monday when it moves in the low-level flow. The
post-tropical cyclone is also expected to continue to weaken and
dissipate completely on Monday.

This is the last NHC advisory on Kristy. For more details on this
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. This information can be found under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.6N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 271431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024

...KRISTY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 129.8W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy
was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 129.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 8
mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the west and west-southwest is
expected late today and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the
post-tropical low is expected to dissipate on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on this system
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 271430
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 129.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 129.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 129.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KRISTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 270835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Kristy's organization on satellite imagery continues to rapidly
decay, with the last fragments of deep convection becoming sheared
off around the time of the last advisory. Given the current lack of
deep convection, the clock is ticking on Kristy's remaining time as
a tropical cyclone. Despite this structure, a partial ASCAT-B pass
at 0526 UTC revealed that Kristy still had a robust wind field on
its western semicircle, with peak winds of 48 kt about 40 n mi
northwest of the center. This scatterometer data was the basis for
holding Kristy as a 50 kt storm at 06 UTC. Assuming continued spin
down of the wind field absent of convection, the initial intensity
for the 09 UTC advisory is a little weaker at 45 kt. Strong vertical
wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 24 C should deal a
fatal blow to Kristy, and the updated NHC forecast shows Kristy
becoming a post-tropical cyclone later today, and opening up into a
trough on Monday.

The tropical storm's motion has slowed considerably this morning as
it becomes a shallow low-level circulation, with the estimated
motion to the northwest at 320/6 kt. A prominent low-level ridge to
the north should result in Kristy turning westward or even south of
due west before it dissipates on Monday. The NHC track is largely
an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.0N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.2N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 28/0600Z 21.9N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 270234
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Kristy's low-level cloud field is starting to lose some definition,
but there has still been bursting of deep convection to the north of
the center. Dvorak CI numbers of 3.5 from TAFB and 3.0 from SAB,
combined with objective satellite estimates, support a current
intensity of 50 kt. Due to the expected continuation of very strong
southerly shear, as well as sea surface temperatures of 23-24
degrees Celsius, Kristy is forecast to weaken below tropical storm
strength and become a remnant low during the day on Sunday. Model
fields show the circulation opening up into a trough by 36 hours,
and that is when dissipation is now shown.

Kristy has turned north-northwestward and slowed down further
(330/10 kt). However, now that the circulation is becoming
increasingly shallow, low-level ridging to the north will cause the
cyclone to turn back toward the northwest and west tonight and on
Sunday before it dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.3N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 270233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2024

...KRISTY QUICKLY UNRAVELING...
...FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 129.5W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND KRISTY IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
LOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 270232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 129.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 129.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 129.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 262035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

The cloud pattern of Kristy continues to decay, with the low-level
center now exposed to the south of what remains of the mid-level
circulation due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 55
kt using a blend of the most recent Dvorak estimates. A
continuation of this shear along with cool water temps should
lead to further weakening, and Kristy is forecast to become a
remnant low early on Sunday. The new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and the latest consensus aids.

The storm continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt. Kristy
should turn more westward overnight as the circulation becomes more
vertically shallow and steered by a low-level ridge. Other than
a small westward adjustment, little change was made to the NHC
track forecast, and the new prediction lies just west of the
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 262034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

...KRISTY FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 129.2W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 129.2 West. Kristy is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward
or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over
the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 262034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 261434
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Kristy is rapidly weakening. Satellite images show the center of
the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast,
with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong
shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with
the latest estimates. Further rapid weakening is anticipated due
to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler
waters. The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous
one, similar to the intensity consensus aids. Kristy should
become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h.

The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt
this morning. This general motion is expected until late today
when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled
with the low-level center. Kristy should then turn westward on
Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low. Very
little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains
steady in showing this course.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 261432
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is
still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection
is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind
shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective
Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this
morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity
estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30
kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition,
Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler
ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid
weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later
today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous
forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening
below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is
likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce
organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and
regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open
up into a trough on Monday.

The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at
320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja
California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical
cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next
24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving
behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down
and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong
low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be
in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only
minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 127.6W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Kristy is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or
north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the
next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260833
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the
center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by
UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to
form within the southern eyewall. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and
objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and
Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt. Rapid
weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even
stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next
couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous
official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids.
Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its
deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to
degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. The low is forecast to
open up into a trough on Monday.

Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong
mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. The
ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward
trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a
remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down
considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north.
The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no
significant track changes were made from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2024

...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 126.9W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST. KRISTY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND KRISTY IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB (28.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 252037
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Latest satellite images continue to depict that Kristy is
struggling within an increasingly hostile environment. The
convective pattern has continued to become more asymmetric, as
southerly vertical wind shear continues to increase, displacing most
of the convection over the northern semicircle. The eyewall has
weakened as well, with convective cloud tops warming. The inner core
degradation was further confirmed by a recent GMI microwave pass.
Subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to plummet
this afternoon and range between 90-105 kt. Given the satellite
presentation, inner structure degradation, and these estimates, the
initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this advisory.

Kristy is moving toward the northwest with an estimated motion of
305/12 kt. The system will move northwestward to north-northwestward
for the next couple of days, steered along the southwestern
periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the
end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low,
the system's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the
west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is
very near the previous one.

The environment surrounding Kristy continues to become more and more
unfavorable. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to
increase, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels
of the atmosphere. Therefore, steady to rapid weakening is
anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite
data depict that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late
this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h, and
dissipating into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast
follows these model trends.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 125.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 252036
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.8W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.8W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 252036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 125.8W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 125.8 West. Kristy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during
the next few days, with Kristy expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 251438
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Southerly to southwesterly wind shear is starting to take its toll
on Kristy as the system is losing organization. The eye has become
cloud filled during the last several hours, with the convective
pattern becoming more asymmetric. Deep convection continues to wrap
within the eyewall, although a recent AMSR2 microwave pass
depicts the inner core is starting to erode. Objective and
subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing steadily this
morning and range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these
estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.

Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest with an estimated motion
of 300/12 kt. The system will move more northwestward to
north-northwestward for the next few days, steered along the
southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific.
Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a
remnant low, Kristy's forward speed will also decrease with a turn
toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC
forecast is very near the previous one with a slight nudge
northward, towards the corrected and simple consensus track aids.

The environment along the forecast path of Kristy is only becoming
increasingly hostile. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to
rise, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of
the atmosphere. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated
through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depicts
that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this
weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 60 h, and dissipating
into a trough by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows
these model trends.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

...KRISTY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 124.8W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 124.8 West. Kristy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, and a northwestward to
north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during
the next few days, with Kristy expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning today and
continuing into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 251437
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 124.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250835
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Kristy is starting to lose organization due to increasing shear,
with the eye becoming ragged and cloud-filled and the surrounding
convection becoming less symmetric. Satellite intensity estimates
have been decreasing and now generally range from 115-140 kt.
Based on the the decreasing trend, the initial intensity is reduced
to a possibly generous 130 kt.

Kristy is now moving west-northwestward with the initial motion is
295/12 kt. During the next 2-3 days, the cyclone should move
northwestward to north-northwestward as it goes around the
southwest side of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered near Baja
California. Some decrease in the forward speed is expected by the
end of the forecast period as the cyclone shears apart, with the
low-level center moving slowly westward between 60-72 h. The
models have again trended a little to the north, especially from
24-48 h. Thus, this part of the forecast track has also been
nudged northward. The remnants of Kristy should move southwestward
in the low-level wind flow.

Vertical shear over the hurricane is going to increase from
light-to-moderate this morning to strong by 24 h. In addition, the
forecast track takes the system over steadily decreasing sea
surface temperatures. Based on this, gradual weakening is expected
for the next 12 h or so, followed by rapid weakening for the
remainder of the cyclone's life. Kristy is expected to drop below
hurricane strength by 48 h, and it is expected to degenerate to a
remnant low pressure area by 72 h. The global models forecast the
low to weaken to a trough by 96 h, and the intensity forecast
follows that in showing dissipation by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.2N 123.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.2N 125.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 23.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2024

...KRISTY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 123.9W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST. KRISTY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KRISTY IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB (27.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250834
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.9W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.9W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.9N 127.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 128.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.0N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

...KRISTY REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 122.7W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 122.7 West. Kristy is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). The hurricane is expected
to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward on Friday, and
slow down over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kristy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
through Friday morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by
Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Moore


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250235
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 122.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 122.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 124.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 242033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2024

...KRISTY BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 121.6W
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. KRISTY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST, WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KRISTY IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB (27.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/B. ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 241432
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye
has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection
wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted
that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an
inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the
center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values
have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both
TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite
images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15
kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific.
Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge
over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then
north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of
the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the
weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants
turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The
NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous
forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids.

Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the
next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight
re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave
imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur,
which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term.
Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind
shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that
rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period.
Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to
lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h,
and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC
intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening,
and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 241431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240835
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Kristy looks a little less impressive this evening, as satellite
imagery indicates that the eye has clouded over. There are hints
in infrared imagery that the hurricane is undergoing an eyewall
replacement cycle, although there are no recent microwave images to
definitively show this. The subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, and
based on this the initial intensity is decreased to 130 kt. The
wind radii have been revised based on recent scatterometer
overpasses showing that Kristy has gotten a little larger in size.

The initial motion is now 270/17 kt. Kristy is currently on the
south side of a deep-layer ridge over the northeastern Pacific. A
turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. A sharper turn to the
northwest or north-northwest is expected by 48 h as Kristy moves
between the ridge and a large mid- to -upper-level trough located
east and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. By the end of the
forecast period, Kristy is expected to shear apart, with the
cyclone or its remnants turning west-southwestward in the
low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track, and it lies near or just to the southwest of the consensus
models.

Kristy is expected to remain over warm water and in a conducive
light shear environment for the next 24-36 h. Based on this and an
expectation that the hurricane will complete an eyewall
replacement, the intensity forecast shows some re-intensification
during this time. After 36 h, the environment becomes much more
hostile, with strong shear, a much drier air mass, and cooler sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track. All guidance agrees
that rapid weakening should occur, and the new intensity forecast
follows the trend of the guidance. Kristy should lose its
convection and become post-tropical by 96 h, and while the forecast
includes a 120 h point as a remnant low there is a possibility the
system will degenerate to a trough by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.1N 118.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.9N 123.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 19.5N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 21.1N 131.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.7N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

...KRISTY MOVING WESTWARD AS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 118.9W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 118.9 West. Kristy is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through Thursday. A slower
northwest to north-northwest motion is expected by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kristy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
through Thursday, with rapid weakening expected to begin Thursday
night or Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240834
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC THU OCT 24 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.9N 123.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 131.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.7N 133.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240231
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

After rapidly intensifying throughout the day, Kristy's impressive
strengthening trend appears to have paused. The very powerful major
hurricane remains quite compact and symmetric with a ring of intense
deep convection surrounding its tiny eye. The initial wind speed is
held at 135 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates that range between 125 and 140 kt. However, it is
possible that Kristy is a little stronger as the maximum wind speed
of compact hurricanes are sometimes underestimated. There are also
signs that Kristy could be beginning an eyewall replacement cycle,
which is common in strong hurricanes in near ideal environmental
conditions.

Kristy continues to move swiftly westward at 17 kt on the south side
of a strong ridge centered near Baja California. A turn to the
west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. A sharper turn to the
northwest or north-northwest is expected Friday night and continuing
through the weekend when the hurricane moves in the flow between the
ridge and a large-scale trough. The NHC track forecast is nudged to
the north of the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest models.

The major hurricane is expected to remain in generally conducive
environmental conditions for about another day, so the intensity
changes will be largely governed by internal dynamics during that
time. However, steady to rapid weakening should begin by early
Friday when Kristy moves into an environment of progressively
stronger shear, cooler waters, and notably drier air. The models
are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast is close to the
latest HCCA guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 117.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 15.5N 124.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 16.9N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 18.7N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.5N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.7N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240230
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC THU OCT 24 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 117.2W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 117.2W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.9N 127.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.7N 129.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 130.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.7N 132.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 232045
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Kristy continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. The eye has
cleared over the past few hours, and surrounding very deep
convection prevails with infrared cloud tops as cold as -75 to -80
deg C. Satellite data suggests continued strengthening since SAB
provided a T6.5 Dvorak classification at 18z, and the initial
intensity is set to 135 kt, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates.

Major Hurricane Kristy is moving westward around 17 kt along the
southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern Pacific
and Western United States. This fast westward motion is forecast to
continue over the next 24-30 h before turning to the west-northwest
this weekend as an upper-level trough impinges on the western extent
of the ridge. Kristy is forecast to encounter a highly sheared
environment this weekend and the system will become decoupled, with
the vertically shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge late in
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the latest
NHC track forecast.

Kristy remains a small hurricane in a weak shear environment over
warm SSTs. The satellite presentation shows persistent convection,
showing the potential for additional near-term strengthening as long
as an eyewall replacement cycle does not commence soon. The latest
NHC forecast remains near the top of the guidance envelope and has
max winds around 140 kt, peaking at Category 5 strength. Slow
weakening will begin on Friday as Kristy encounters increasing
shear, and more rapid weakening will set in this weekend as the
storm moves into an increasingly hostile environment with high shear
and cooler SSTs. The storm is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical
low by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 115.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.0N 118.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.1N 121.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.4N 128.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.5N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1800Z 20.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 232044
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 115.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 115.5 West. Kristy is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday and into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kristy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected
through early Thursday. Gradual weakening should begin on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 232044
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.1N 121.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 130.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 133.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 231442
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024

The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this
morning. The gradually warming eye of the hurricane is surrounded by
a ring of very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as
-75 to -80 deg C. GOES-West derived motion winds indicate good
upper-level outflow, particularly over the southern and western
portions of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications were
a consensus T5.5/102-kt from TAFB and SAB at 12 UTC. Satellite
trends suggest Kristy has kept strengthening since that time, and
the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, following the rising
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving quickly westward (265/17 kt) while being
steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. This quick
westward motion should continue for the next 24-36 h. Then, an
upper-level trough between the Hawaiian Islands and the west coast
of the United States is forecast to erode the western extent of the
ridge. As a result, Kristy is expected to move toward the
west-northwest and northwest late this week and into the weekend. A
westward motion is shown by day 5, as it is anticipated that Kristy
will become highly sheared and decoupled, with the vertically
shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge. No significant
changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast.

Kristy is a relatively small hurricane that remains susceptible to
rapid intensity fluctuations in a weak shear environment over warm
SSTs. The latest GFS and ECMWF SHIPS output shows a 50 to 60 percent
chance of a 20-kt increase during the next 12 h, and the satellite
trends suggest continued near-term strengthening is likely. The
updated NHC forecast reflects these signals and lies above the
intensity guidance in the near term, showing Kristy peaking as a
category 4 hurricane on Thursday. By Friday, the aforementioned
trough is expected to impart increased shear on the hurricane, which
should induce weakening through the rest of the 5-day forecast
period. With SHIPS-diagnosed shear values of 40-50 kt by the
weekend, Kristy is forecast to quickly weaken over the weekend and
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231441
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 AM MST WED OCT 23 2024

...KRISTY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 113.9W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. KRISTY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KRISTY IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STEADY TO RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 231441
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230840
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024

Kristy is rapidly strengthening this morning, with the latest
satellite imagery showing an eye developing in the central dense
overcast and good cirrus outflow in the western semicircle.
Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 75-95 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 85 kt.

Kristy is moving 265/17 kt on the south side of the subtropical
ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 36 h or
so. From 36-72 h, Kristy should turn northwestward toward a break
in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough to the
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that, strong upper-level
winds should cause the cyclone to shear apart, with the low-level
circulation turning westward on the south side of a low-level
ridge. The new forecast track is generally similar to the old track,
but is has been nudged northward between 60-96 h in response to a
northward shift in the guidance.

The hurricane should remain in an environment of light shear over
warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 h or so, and thus
continued steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that
time. The first 36-48 h of the intensity forecast is at or a
little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance and calls for
a peak intensity of 120 kt. However, given current trends, it would
not be a surprise if Kristy got stronger than this. Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly
shear and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this
combination should cause steady to rapid weakening. This part of
the new intensity forecast calls for the system to weaken to a
tropical storm by 96 h and then quickly decay to a remnant low
pressure area by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230840
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 AM MST WED OCT 23 2024

...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 112.0W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. KRISTY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED, AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230839
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230235
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

Kristy continues to steadily intensify. 1-minute geostationary
satellite imagery show continuous deep bursts of convection near the
center, a curved band wrapping around the western and southern
portions of the circulation, and symmetric upper-level outflow. An
AMSR2 microwave pass from 1919 UTC showed a vertically aligned low-
and mid-level eye. Dvorak estimates have increased this cycle and
the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, representing a blend of
the TAFB (T4.0/65 kt) and SAB (T4.5/77 kt) classifications.

A subtropical ridge to the north is steering the hurricane to the
west at about 17 kt. This westward motion should continue for the
next couple of days until Kristy reaches a weakness in the ridge.
By Friday, models anticipate the hurricane to turn
west-northwestward followed by a northwestward turn on Saturday.
The more shallow vortex is expect to bend back to the west-northwest
in the low-level flow by the end of the forecast period. The
guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and there are only minor
changes made to the latest official track forecast.

There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning as well.
Low vertical wind shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea
surface temperature all provide the ingredients to support steady to
rapid intensification. Statistical guidance is still showing above
average chances of rapid intensification in the next 24 h and the
official forecast reflects this. Global models suggest vertical
wind shear could increase quickly by Friday as Kristy approaches
cooler waters. Steady to rapid weakening is expected beyond 72 h
and Kristy should lose its organized deep convection by 120 h and
become a post-tropical cyclone. The latest intensity forecast lies
at the top of the guidance envelope in the short-term and closer to
center during the middle to long-range time periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230235
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM MST TUE OCT 22 2024

...HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 110.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. KRISTY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H) AND THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND KRISTY
COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230234
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 222053
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened
significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows
persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner
core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out,
revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a
robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these
observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at
18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the
initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at
65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane.

Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it
skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical
ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion
should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin
to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a
mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by
that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution
of the synoptic pattern. As such, the latest NHC track forecast
remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and
is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track
thereafter.

The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid
intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy
encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and
ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent
chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten
times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will
explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane
intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After
60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with
increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will
likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is
likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective
organization.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222044
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

...KRISTY BECOMES A HURRICANE AND APPEARS POISED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 108.5W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 108.5 West. Kristy is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this westward motion is
expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional intensification is expected and Kristy could
rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday
afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 222042
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 70SE 70SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 221454
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 AM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

Kristy still appears to be on an intensification trend this morning.
The storm's structure on satellite imagery is quite well organized,
with a large curved band on its western side, and a smaller central
dense overcast that suggests a formative inner core may be
developing. There has not been much passive microwave imagery for
a more in-depth look at the convective structure since the prior
advisory, but based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates (T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB), the
initial intensity is being increased to 50 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving a little north of due west this
morning, with the motion estimated at 280/15 kt. A well-established
subtropical mid-level ridge should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone westward, with some of the guidance even showing a little
farther south of due west over the next 48-60 h. By this weekend,
the ridge becomes eroded towards its western edge by a mid- to
upper-level trough that should allow Kristy to begin gaining
latitude on Friday into the weekend. The track forecast this cycle
is nearly on top of the previous NHC track forecast for the first 48
h, and is a little to the south and west thereafter, blending the
consensus aids TCVE and HCCA with the prior track at the end of the
forecast period.

As alluded to in previous discussions, the environment appears quite
favorable for intensification, with low shear, warm sea-surface
temperatures, and a moist surrounding environment. In fact, rapid
intensification is becoming a distinct possibility as the storm
forms an inner core. Indeed, the latest ECMWF-SHIPS guidance is
giving Kristy a 43 percent chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity
over the next 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast thus was
increased over the next couple of days, and now peaks Kristy as a
110 kt category 3 hurricane in 60-72 h. It is worth noting that the
hurricane-regional model guidance mean is still a little above
that peak intensity. After 72 h, the same upper-level trough eroding
the subtropical ridge should also contribute to a rapid increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear over Kristy as it also moves over
increasingly cool ocean waters. Thus, a fast rate of weakening is
likely to begin by this weekend, in good agreement with the IVCN and
HCCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.6N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.5N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Torres-Vazquez


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 221450
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/TORRES-VAZQUEZ=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024

Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually
become better organized during the overnight hours. A convective
burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication
that a central core could be forming. The cyclone also has some
impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these
bands are a bit far from the center. A pair of ASCAT passes from
22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in
the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range.
Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become
better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt. The initial intensity
is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory.

Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer
it westward for the next 3 days or so. Friday into the weekend, a
turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds
the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a
mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track
forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast
and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted
that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4
and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below
average.

Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening,
and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out. For the next
72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean
temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist
troposphere. Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind
shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4
to 5 days. Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4
days and move into a much more stable environment. Therefore,
weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid
weakening in 4 to 5 days. The intensity forecast is largely
unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to
peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
300 AM CST TUE OCT 22 2024

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.8W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220242
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep
convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the
circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt.
The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest
to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate.

The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general
motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the
southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the
storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low
over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to
northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids.

The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems
to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing
Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to
rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is
showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24
h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly
forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and
nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the
vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening
trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance
envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220241
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 103.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.3 West. Kristy is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
several days and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 212044
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

The low pressure system located offshore the southern coast of
Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night based on
available GOES-West imagery and wind-derived satellite data. An
ASCAT wind pass from a few hours ago indicated that the surface
circulation had become well-defined and sustained winds were already
around 30-35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB at 18Z
were T2.0 and T2.5, respectively. Based on these data, advisories
are initiated on Tropical Storm Kristy with an initial intensity of
35 kt.

The initial motion of this tropical storm is westward at 270/15 kt.
Kristy is expected to continue on this general motion during the
next few days as is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well
west of Baja California. Late this week, Kristy will be approaching
a weakness created by a large cutoff low over the North Pacific.
This weakness should allow the tropical cyclone to turn to the
northwest by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is
in good agreement, especially early in the forecast period, and the
initial forecast track follows the HCCA and TVCE models closely.

Relatively low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures should
allow Kristy to steadily gain strength over the next few days. The
forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to become a hurricane on
Wednesday. SHIPS guidance from both GFS and ECMWF suggest that the
wind shear values will be less than 10 kt by midweek, while the
sea-surface temperatures will be around 28-29 C. Such favorable
conditions could favor significant strengthening once the inner-core
becomes established. By Friday, Kristy will be crossing the 26 C
isotherm and the global model guidance also indicates that the wind
shear will also abruptly increase. Thus weakening is expected to
begin between forecast days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is
in good agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.5N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212043
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
300 PM CST MON OCT 21 2024

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 102.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 212042
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN=