Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OSCAR-24
in Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahamas, Cuba, United States

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221757
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Oscar Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Based on earlier aircraft reconnaissance observations, more recent
scatterometer data, high-resolution visible satellite images, and
surface synoptic observations, Oscar has degenerated into a broad
area of low pressure near the Bahamas. Therefore, this is the last
advisory on this system.

A new, but non-tropical, low pressure system will likely develop
farther to the north-northeast in a day or so. This low is expected
to absorb the remnants of Oscar.

Further information on the remnants of Oscar and this new
non-tropical system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z ..DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221755
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1800 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 74.0W AT 22/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 74.0W AT 22/1800Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 74.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221755
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Oscar Special Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...OSCAR IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the remnants of Oscar were located near
latitude 23.0 North, longitude 74.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 221719
TCUAT1

Remnants of Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
120 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...OSCAR IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LAST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

Earlier aircraft reconnaissance observations, recent
satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that
Oscar no longer has a well-defined center of circulation and the
maximum winds have decreased to below tropical storm strength. The
government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas. A special, final, advisory
will be issued by 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC, in lieu of the intermediate
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 120 PM EDT...1720 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 040 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221455
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Oscar has had
difficulty locating a center this morning. Data from the plane and
visible satellite images suggest that the circulation is becoming
elongated. Also, the system may have weakened below tropical storm
strength, but we will wait for an upcoming scatterometer pass that
will provide a wider swath of wind data before downgrading it.
Thus, for the moment, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt.
Nonetheless, since all of the stronger winds are occurring east of
the center, the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas is
being discontinued.

Given the poor definition of the center, the initial motion is an
uncertain 040/10 kt. Oscar should accelerate northeastward along
the eastern side of a mid- to upper-level trough during the next day
or so. The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous NHC prediction in 24-36 hours. Within the next couple of
days, the global models indicate that the trough will cause
baroclinic cyclogenesis to occur near or north of Oscar. The
resulting extratropical surface low is likely to absorb or merge
with the tropical cyclone or its remnants.

The atmospheric environment, consisting of strong shear and
relatively dry air, is expected to remain hostile for the
maintenance of a tropical cyclone, so no strengthening is
anticipated. Indeed, it is possible that Oscar could dissipate
before it interacts with the new extratropical cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding will be possible today across the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. With
rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 22.9N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...OSCAR IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Oscar is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar will be moving away from
the Bahamas later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Oscar could dissipate later today, or merge with an extratropical
low pressure system within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the southeastern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected
through today. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221154
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Oscar is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the
Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the day today. Oscar is
expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight or early
Wednesday, and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts
around 8 inches, are expected through today. This rainfall could
cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220833
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Oscar is at best barely a tropical storm at this time. While
convection associated with the system has increased since the last
advisory, most of it is occurring in clusters well away from the
center in the eastern semicircle, and there is only minimal
convection near the center. Also, while 850 mb flight-level winds
were as high as 45-50 kt during an earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission, dropsonde and SFMR data suggests those
winds were having trouble mixing down to the surface. The system
will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm pending the next recon
flight and whether convection will increase further during the
upcoming diurnal maximum.

The global models are in good agreement that a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic will cause
baroclinic cyclogenesis near or north of Oscar during the next
24-48 h. The UKMET shows Oscar become the main focus for the
development and becoming a large extratropical low, while the GFS
develops a second low to the north of Oscar with Oscar becoming
absorbed into the new system. The ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast a blend of these scenarios, with the baroclinic low forming
close to Oscar. Given Oscar's organization and current trends in
satellite imagery, the intensity forecast leans towards the GFS
solution, with Oscar becoming a post-tropical low in less than 24 h
and then being absorbed by the new low in 36-48 h.

The initial motion is now 030/10 kt. Interaction with the above
mentioned trough should steer Oscar generally northeastward with an
increase in forward speed until it is absorbed by the new
baroclinic low. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track.


Key Messages:

1. Through Tuesday, localized flash flooding will be possible across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 22.7N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the
Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
two, Oscar is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight and
then be absorbed by another low pressure area by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts
around 8 inches, are expected through Tuesday. This rainfall could
cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220531
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (14 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas later today.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Through today, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20
inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce
additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall
could cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220300
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 75.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220240
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern
Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a
tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite
images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely
the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions
of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be
somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the
east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory.

Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the
north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern
Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed
during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be
absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is
forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no
notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track
prediction remains similar to the previous one.

Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar
will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air
and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a
result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating
to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even
sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming
convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional
rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to
flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash
flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings
for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas overnight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20
inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce
additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall
could cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212345
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 75.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 75.7 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
southeast and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected
within the warning area in eastern Cuba for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts
of the central and southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have
already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of
Guantanamo.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause
localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside tonight. Near the
coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 212042
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Although the circulation of Oscar is rather broad, visible
satellite images show that the center is nearing the northern coast
of eastern Cuba. Deep convection associated with the system has
diminished during the day, at least partially due to a diurnal
fluctuation. The intensity is kept, perhaps generously, at 35 kt
for this advisory. Surface synoptic observations and earlier
scatterometer data indicate that the strongest winds are over the
eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and no tropical-storm-force
wind radii are shown to the northwest or southwest of the center
for this advisory.

Oscar been turning fairly sharply to the right while the system
executes a hairpin turn over eastern Cuba. The current motion
estimate is around 330/6 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to
turn northward and northeastward with some increase in forward
speed while it moves on the southeastern and eastern side of a
mid-level trough. Since the system has moved a little farther west
than previously estimated, the overall official track forecast has
been shifted slightly west of the previous one. This is a blend of
the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions.

The tropical cyclone should move back over water soon, so some
restrengthening is possible during the next day or two. However,
Oscar will be moving into an area of strong upper-level winds over
the next couple of days which should impart significant westerly
shear over the system. Also, the cyclone is expected to remain in
a relatively dry air mass to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Thus, only slight restrengthening seems possible. The official
intensity forecast is above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.
In 2 to 3 days, the global models show the system being absorbed by
a non-tropical low pressure system to the west of Bermuda.

The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the
mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Over the last 24 hours, a
rainfall total of nearly 15 inches was reported at Punta de Maisi
on the eastern tip of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into this
evening across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are also expected in portions of the southeastern and central
Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 21.0N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Delgado


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 76.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 76.1 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to
the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern
coast of Cuba by this evening and move near the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
southeast and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
in eastern Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in parts of the central and
southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have
already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of
Guantanamo.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause
localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside this evening and
tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue
into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 212039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 75.8 West. Oscar is now
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
north is expected this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba this
afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over
land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center
moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An ASOS weather station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of
Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the
watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have
already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of
Guantanamo.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause
localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and
tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue
into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 211445
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that
the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still
moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from
Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has
become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while
interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind
speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this
may be generous.

The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that
the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of
Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn
northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level
trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system
should then accelerate northeastward over portions of
the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the
aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the
circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing
non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very
close to the dynamical model consensus.

Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues
to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar
could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves
over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with
increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore
only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next
day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar
becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system.

The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the
mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the
Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than
10 inches of rain have fallen in spots.


Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across
portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Delgado


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the northern coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to
the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving
across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the
northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight and move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the
center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening
after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of
Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the
watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have
already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of
Guantanamo.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause
localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and
tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue
into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Delgado


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 211443
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 75.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest
and north is expected later today, followed by a faster
northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across
eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern
coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern
and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar
moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is
forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late
today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern
Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central
Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall
could cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and
tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue
into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211155
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest
and north is expected later today, followed by a faster
northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across
eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern
coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern
and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar
moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is
forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late
today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern
Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central
Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall
could cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and
tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue
into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210837
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba
overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown
a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep
convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island.
A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern
and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner
core organization over the past several hours, the initial
wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for
this advisory.

Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that
the center is located just north of that location. The initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm
should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead
of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some
of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may
re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than
the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous
terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over
eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of
Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas
and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72
hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will
become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing
non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the
southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again
faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.

Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern
Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical
cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but
increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air
should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by
a non-tropical area of low pressure.

The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous
terrain of eastern Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across
portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210836
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...OSCAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 75.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest
and north is expected later today, followed by a faster
northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving
across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the
northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is likely while
Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but
Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba
late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern
Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central
Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall
will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding
along with mudslides.

Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause
localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore flow along
the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and
tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue
into early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210835
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 75.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210551
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...SLOW-MOVING OSCAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 74.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.2 North, longitude
74.9 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8
km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected today, followed
by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving
across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the
northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar
interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar
could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late
today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern
Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central
Bahamas today into Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks
and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through
Wednesday morning.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are
expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210245
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Oscar made landfall around 2150 UTC as a 70-kt hurricane near the
city of Baracoa in the Guantanamo province of eastern Cuba. Radar
data from Guantanamo Bay shows Oscar has continued to move slowly
over eastern Cuba tonight, with heavy rainfall spreading across the
region. Oscar's slow motion will enhance the potential for heavy
rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides across
eastern Cuba, particularly near higher terrain. There has been
notable degradation of Oscar's inner core structure in recent radar
and satellite images, which suggests weakening is occurring due to
ongoing land interaction. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt
for this advisory.

Oscar wobbled slightly southward on its final approach to Cuba, but
recent radar data suggest the system has resumed a slow
west-southwestward to westward motion. Oscar should remain over
eastern Cuba or very near the coast during the next 12-24 h.
Thereafter, the flow ahead of a digging shortwave trough over the
southwestern Atlantic is forecast to capture Oscar, which should
result in a northeastward acceleration through midweek. The track
guidance trended faster this cycle, particularly the ECMWF (which
has handled Oscar well) and even the GFS with a shallower vortex
depiction. The NHC track forecast once again shows a faster forward
speed between 36-72 h, generally between the HCCA/TVCN consensus
aids and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX).

Weakening is expected to continue as the inner core structure of
Oscar is disrupted by the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. The
extent of the weakening that occurs, and whether Oscar remains a
tropical cyclone (TC) once it emerges off the northern coast of
Cuba, is still somewhat uncertain. The ECMWF has been the
best-performing guidance for Oscar and shows it remaining a TC,
while other models including the GFS suggest more significant
weakening and possible degeneration to a surface trough. Even if
Oscar survives, the environmental conditions over the southwestern
Atlantic are expected to become more hostile, with stronger vertical
wind shear and a drier surrounding airmass likely to inhibit much
redevelopment. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, but shows post-tropical status at 72 h given the shear. If
Oscar survives that long, it should become absorbed by a larger,
non-tropical low pressure system over the western Atlantic by 96 h.

Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with
mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the
Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be
possible across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue overnight
across portions of eastern Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0000Z 20.9N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1200Z 21.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.4N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210244
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES AS SLOW-MOVING OSCAR MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 74.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and
changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the
north coast of Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.3 North,
longitude 74.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near
6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected on
Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to
continue moving across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday, then emerge
off the northern coast of Cuba late Monday and move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar
interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar
could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late
Monday and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight and Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the
southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the
central Bahamas Monday into Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks
and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through
Wednesday morning.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are
expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210244
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 74.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 74.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N 75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N 75.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.4N 73.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.3N 70.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 74.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 202342
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 74.5 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and north is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving
across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday, then emerge off the northern
coast of Cuba late Monday and cross the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous
terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm
when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the
central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km). A weather station at Punta Maisi in eastern Cuba reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130 km/h)
within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight and Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the
southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the
central Bahamas Monday into Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks
and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through
Wednesday morning.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are
expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 202150
TCUAT1

Hurricane Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
550 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...HURRICANE OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Oscar has made
landfall in the Cuban province of Guantanamo near the city of
Baracoa at 550 PM EDT (2150 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are
near 80 mph (130 km/h) based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter observations. The latest minimum central pressure estimated
from the earlier reconnaissance data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


SUMMARY OF 550 PM EDT...2150 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 74.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ESE OF BARACOA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart/Papin


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 202046
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Oscar is very close to making landfall this afternoon along the
northern coast of eastern Cuba. Since the final observations from
the morning Air Force Reconnaissance mission, the hurricane's
structure on satellite imagery and radar out of Guantanamo Bay has
not changed appreciably, with rotating cold convective bands noted
on 1 minute GOES-16 imagery, and the eyewall on radar coming and
going, occasionally open on the western side. Subjective and
objective intensity estimates have not changed much from when the
plane was in the hurricane this morning, so the initial intensity
will remain at 70 kt this advisory.

Oscar has continued a west-southwestward motion, but is slowing down
as it nears the Cuban coast, estimated now at 250/5 kt. The
strongest mid-level ridging is now oriented to the northwest of
Oscar and is helping to steer the small hurricane west-southwestward
into Cuba. However, by tomorrow a digging shortwave trough on the
eastern side of a broader trough across the western Atlantic should
further erode the steering flow north of Oscar, with much of the
track guidance showing the system executing a slow but sharp turn
northward on Monday, ultimately causing the tropical cyclone to
emerge back out over open waters in 24-36 h. How fast Oscar then
accelerates to the northeast could be related to how vertically deep
the circulation is by the early part of this week, with the GFS
showing a shallow Oscar drifting slowly over the central Bahamas,
while the ECMWF keeps a stronger Oscar accelerating northeastward.
The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous
advisory, slightly favoring the ECMWF forecast solution over the GFS
given its better performance with this small tropical cyclone, and
lies not far off the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

The small inner core of Oscar is likely to be severely disrupted by
the higher terrain of eastern Cuba after it makes landfall, and
weakening after it moves ashore will likely be quick. Some of the
guidance, especially the GFS, suggests that Oscar could weaken more
than shown here in the latest NHC intensity forecast. Once Oscar
re-emerges over the Atlantic Ocean, the forecast environment is not
very favorable for reintensification, with westerly shear increasing
above 30 kt in 36 h and plenty of very dry air waiting to be
imported into the cyclone's core. The NHC forecast does not show any
intensification after it emerges back offshore, and most of the
guidance shows the small cyclone being absorbed by the much larger
baroclinic trough sometime this week, though the timing varies among
the global and hurricane-regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of the northern
coast of eastern Cuba where Oscar is expected to make landfall
shortly.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the north shore of eastern Cuba this afternoon and evening.

3. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with
mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the
Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be
possible across the southeastern Bahamas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 23.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.2N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 202044
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 74.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case tonight
into tomorrow.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued
west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected
through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar
is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern
Cuba shortly. The system is then expected to move across eastern
Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to begin moving a
bit faster to the northeast across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. After Oscar makes landfall, significant weakening is
expected, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves
north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas
on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km). Recently, there was a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h) from
a weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). A
weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba recently
reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Cuba beginning shortly and continuing through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the
warning area for the southeastern Bahamas and for tonight and Monday
in the warning area in Cuba, and are possible in the watch area of
Cuba this tonight into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks
and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through
Wednesday morning.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are
expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201750
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 74.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning
that was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was tracked by
radar in Guantanamo Bay near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 74.1
West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward
speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern
coast of eastern Cuba later this afternoon or evening. The system is
then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar
is then forecast to accelerate northeastward across the central
Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northern coast of eastern
Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon or evening. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm
when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the
central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45
miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Cuba late this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the
warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch
area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks
and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through
Wednesday morning.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are
expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 201459
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Oscar remains a compact hurricane as it nears its next landfall in
the northeastern coast of Cuba. The Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance has been performing another resources permitting
mission, finding that Oscar remains a small hurricane, though the
last several fixes do indicate the eye is a bit larger than
observed yesterday, with a 15-20 mile wide eye. This eye feature is
also being occasionally observed on radar imagery from Guantanamo
Bay. On satellite, Oscar still remains well organized with a small
central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops below -80 C. In
fact, the subjective and objective intensity estimates based on
satellite are quite a bit higher than yesterday at this time. From
the aircraft in-situ data, a blend of the flight level, SFMR, and
dropsonde data still supports a current intensity of 70 kt this
advisory.

Oscar has made its turn to the west-southwest, with the current
estimated motion from recon fixes at 250/7 kt. The narrow mid-level
ridge that was originally north of Oscar has shifted westward while
a weakness develops farther east from a mid-latitude trough, and
that has resulted in the steering over the hurricane shifting more
equatorward, allowing the west-southwestward motion. However, the
trough's weakness will continue to grow and also migrate westward,
and Oscar still seems likely to slow to a crawl after it moves
inland over Cuba. Ultimately Oscar is still expected to reemerge
into the southwestern Atlantic in 36 h and migrate northeastward as
it becomes captured by the deep-layer trough. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and is
quite similar to the prior track forecast.

Oscar appears to be holding its own today, and not much change in
intensity is expected before it reaches the northeastern Cuba coast
this afternoon as a hurricane. There is high terrain in eastern Cuba
that is likely to severely disrupt the small inner-core of Oscar
after it moves inland. Some of the global model guidance (especially
the GFS) shows that Oscar could weaken more over than shown here.
Assuming Oscar survives its passage over Cuba, the NHC forecast
shows it emerging back offshore as a tropical storm in 36-48 h.
Environmental conditions will be quite unfavorable for additional
tropical development by that time, with increasing northwesterly
shear and very dry mid-level air. Ultimately Oscar will finally be
absorbed by a larger deep-layer baroclinic trough over the western
Atlantic after 72 h, similar to the prior forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua
Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and
evening.

3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Wednesday. In
addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the
southeastern Bahamas through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR STEADY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH
COASTLINE OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 73.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Oscar.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 73.9 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected
through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar
is expected to make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba
later this afternoon or evening. The system is then expected to move
across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate
northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as
a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after
landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves
north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua
Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across
eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks
and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through
Wednesday morning.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the
southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between
2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft
above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba
in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 201453
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 73.9W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 73.9W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 73.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201154
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS OSCAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST
OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 73.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 73.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued
west-southwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar
will move away from Great Inagua later this morning before making
landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon
or evening. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba
tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across
the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds as recently reported by Air Force
Reconnaissance data remains near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as
a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after
landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves
north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde data is
986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua
Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 6 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the
southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between
2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft
above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba
in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200844
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Animation of 1-minute GOES infrared satellite images indicates that
Oscar's center has made landfall on the eastern side of Great
Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas. Small convective bursts
have occasionally been noted close to the center during the
overnight hours, suggesting that the hurricane still has a very
tight inner core. Overall, the satellite presentation is not quite
as well organized as it was yesterday afternoon, and with the
small core now over Great Inagua, the estimated intensity is lowered
slightly to 70 kt--albeit with a very large error bar. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate Oscar
in a few hours.

Oscar is moving south of due west (260 degrees), still at about 10
kt. Due to strong mid-level ridging to the north and west, Oscar
is forecast to turn west-southwestward this morning, which will
bring the center to the coast of northeastern Cuba later this
afternoon. The ridge is expected to be replaced by a developing
mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic in 24-48
hours, which should cause Oscar to turn westward and then northward
while inland over Cuba on Monday. Oscar is then forecast to
accelerate northeastward over the central Bahamas on Tuesday ahead
of the trough. The NHC track forecast is very close to the HCCA
consensus aid for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and then more
closely follows a blend of HCCA with TVCA after that time. This
forecast is not too different from the previous prediction.

Oscar's small size will continue to make it susceptible to
intensity fluctuations, but the cyclone is expected to reach
northeastern Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. That small
size will also make the core vulnerable to being heavily disrupted
by the terrain of eastern Cuba, which rises several thousand feet
above sea level. Because of this, the GFS and ECMWF global fields
in particular show Oscar's circulation becoming less compact and
less well defined in about 36 hours. Oscar is forecast to weaken
over Cuba, but it could still be a tropical storm when it emerges
back over the Atlantic and moves across the central Bahamas in 2-3
days. Alternatively, it's also possible the Oscar could
degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate entirely while over
eastern Cuba. If Oscar does survive Cuba, it is likely to be
absorbed by a larger non-tropical area of low pressure over the
western Atlantic, and the new NHC forecast therefore shows
dissipation by day 4.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua
Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and
evening.

3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 21.1N 73.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200844
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for
the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwestward or
westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through
tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar
will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the
northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and
then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then
accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Oscar is forecast to reach the northeastern
coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm
when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central
Bahamas on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua
Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday.
Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos
Islands this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with
isolated amounts around 6 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the
southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between
2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft
above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba
in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200843
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 73.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200534
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest
is forecast later today, and the center of Oscar is forecast to
reach the coast of Cuba tonight. A turn toward the north and
northeast is expected in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day
or so, but weakening is anticipated tonight and Monday after the
center crosses the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great
Inagua Island, this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area in Cuba this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight into Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches
are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between
2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft
above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba
in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200254
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Satellite images indicate the center of Oscar passed very near Grand
Turk Island earlier this evening. Passive microwave data show the
tiny hurricane has a compact inner core with a small curved band
that wraps around much of its circulation. In the past several
hours, the cloud pattern has become a little less symmetric, with a
sharp edge to the cloud pattern on the northwest side. The
conventional satellite intensity estimates remain too low relative
to what the aircraft found this afternoon, and without any new
observations, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Oscar on Sunday.

Oscar continues moving westward at about 10 kt, but it is forecast
to turn slightly south of due west during the next day or so while
moving on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge centered over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should bring the center of Oscar
very near or over Great Inagua in the southeastern Bahamas early
Sunday, then toward the northeastern coast of Cuba through Sunday
night. There has been a southward shift in the latest track
guidance, with more models indicating Oscar could make landfall and
move inland over eastern Cuba in 24-36 h. The latest NHC prediction
has been adjusted to reflect this and lies closest to the simple
consensus TVCN and GFEX aids. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes
more uncertain, as the extent and duration of land interaction will
dictate the depth of the vortex and how it is steered. For now, the
longer-range forecast still follows the ECMWF, which shows Oscar
turning northward and accelerating northeastward through midweek
ahead of an amplifying upper trough.

The intensity forecast for Oscar remains challenging, since its
compact size makes it susceptible to more rapid intensity
fluctuations. While some near-term intensification cannot be ruled
out, satellite trends indicate the hurricane could be starting to
feel the effects of northwesterly shear, which the global models
insist will increase during the next 12-24 h. The NHC forecast still
shows Oscar reaching the coast of Cuba as a hurricane on Sunday
night, and the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning
for a portion of the northern coast. Afterwards, land interaction
and stronger shear should induce weakening, which could occur even
faster than forecast if the center of the small cyclone remains
inland as long as some of the guidance suggests.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
and southeastern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued
for a portion of the northern coast of Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight
and along the north shore of Cuba later on Sunday.

3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with the potential of mudslides across portions of eastern
Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 21.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200253
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TINY OSCAR PASSING SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
northern coast of Cuba for the province of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to
Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.2 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest
is forecast on Sunday, and the center of Oscar is forecast to reach
the coast of Cuba on Sunday night. A turn toward the north and
northeast is expected early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day
or so, but weakening is anticipated on Sunday night and Monday after
the center crosses the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas overnight into
early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba Sunday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area of Cuba Sunday night into Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches
are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where
water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal
tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels
are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200252
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL OSCAR MOVING VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 71.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provence of Camaguey

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 71.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a
gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast tonight
into tomorrow. A sharp turn to the northeast is anticipated by late
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. A little more strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual
weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night and Monday.

Oscar is a very small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).
A private weather station on South Caicos recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on parts of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and are expected to spread over portions of
the Southeastern Bahamas later tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning shortly.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area of Cuba on
Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Sunday
night.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches
are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where
water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the north shore of Cuba.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 192048
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center,
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily
in the northern semicircle.

Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter,
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence.

The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions.
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today,
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this
evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to
eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a
Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal
flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on
Sunday.

3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192041
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TINY OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD BRACE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 71.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba Provence of Camaguey


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 71.1 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a
gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast tonight
into tomorrow. A sharp turn to the northeast is anticipated by
Monday.

Dropsonde wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. A little more
strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening is expected
to begin by Sunday night and Monday.

Oscar is a very small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier dropsonde
data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin shortly, making outside preparations dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area of Cuba by
Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area by Sunday afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba.
Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches
are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where
water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the north shore of
Cuba.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 192040
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191757 CCA
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

CORRECTED WIND GUST VALUES

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191755
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast
intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the
system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb
flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989
mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A
dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150
m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports
upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained
winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly,
and is substantially higher than the previous one.

Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also
issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a
Tropical Storm Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been
issued for those locations.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening.

3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191754
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba Provence of Camaguey

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a gradual
slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds based on aircraft data are near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
today before gradual weakening begins early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde
observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon, making outside
preparations dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts
of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern
Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where
water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191753
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 191708
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
110 PM AST Sat Oct 19 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OSCAR STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that
Tropical Storm Oscar is stronger than previously estimated with
maximum sustained winds of at least 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde
observations has also fallen to 991 mb (29.26 in).

A special advisory in lieu of the standard intermediate advisory
will be issued by 2 PM AST (18 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191459
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 70.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas and a Tropical
Storm Watch for Camaguey.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba Provence of Camaguey

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Oscar is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with a
gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed
by little change in strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts
of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern
Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191500
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure
located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier
this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image
that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better
organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on
the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation
was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery
missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band
scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First
light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation
has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense
overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has
formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak
estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with
a 35 kt initial intensity.

Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This
motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is
initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the
north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon
expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to
slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba
in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue
amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically
deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical
cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple
TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF
forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of
southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker
members slower and further west and stronger members being captured
by the trough.

Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for
strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity
forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the
eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite
rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its
north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There
could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the
circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and
could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down.
After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small
Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the
middle of next week.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for those locations.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191457
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN