Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESLIE-24
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 121442
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Leslie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024

ASCAT-B data valid near 1300 UTC indicated that Leslie's fast
forward motion has caused it to open into a trough. Therefore, this
will be the last NHC advisory on Leslie. The ASCAT data indicated
that winds of 40-45 kt are still present on the east side of
Leslie's remnants, where it continues to produce limited deep
convection.

A mid-latitude frontal system is nearing the remnants of Leslie, and
the two systems are expected to merge within the next 12 h or so,
marking Leslie's full transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It is
possible that Leslie will redevelop a closed circulation as a
non-tropical low at that point. The cyclone is expected to turn
eastward on Sunday, bringing it very near or over the Azores late
Sunday and through early Monday. By Monday afternoon, Leslie's
center is expected to become poorly defined again as it interacts
with another weaker mid-latitude cyclone to the east of the Azores.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 33.3N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...REMNANTS OF LESLIE
12H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 121440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Leslie Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024

...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 43.4W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Leslie were located near
latitude 33.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. The remnants are moving
quickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the east at a fast forward speed is expected starting
tonight, with a continued eastward motion expected into early next
week. The remnants of Leslie are expected to move over or very near
the Azores Sunday and early Monday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Leslie has
degenerated into a trough, but maximum sustained winds remain near
50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Leslie are
expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 121439
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 43.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 43.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 43.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 120839
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024

Leslie has held steady through the night. The storm has maintained
a small burst of deep convection near the low-level center, with
cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. While the
satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer
data.

The storm is accelerating to the northeast at 21 kt in the flow
ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the northwestern
Atlantic. On Sunday, Leslie should turn east-northeastward to
eastward and continue this motion through the remainder of the
forecast period. Model guidance has shifted northward with a slight
increase in forward speed this advisory cycle. The latest NHC
forecast has been nudged northward and now lies between the previous
prediction and on the southern side of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope. Leslie, or its remnants, is now expected to move
near or over the Azores late Sunday through early Monday.

Leslie has a few more hours in a marginal environmental. Later
today, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to steadily
increase and the storm is passing over the 26 degree C isotherm
towards cooler waters. Global models suggest Leslie will lose its
deep convection and merge with a frontal system in about a day. The
official forecast now reflects the timing of this transition. It
should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure
area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open
trough before then due to the fast forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 31.3N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 120836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024

...LESLIE RACING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 45.9W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Leslie.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 45.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and a
northeastward to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores
late Sunday or Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Leslie is likely to gradually weaken and become an extratropical
cyclone tonight or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 120835
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 45.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 45.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 45.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 120236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Convection associated with Leslie has been increasing during the
past several hours as the cyclone moves into an area of temporarily
decreased shear. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40-45 kt in
the southeastern quadrant, and based on these data the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt. The scatterometer data also suggest
that the circulation is becoming somewhat distorted due to the rapid
northeastward motion.

The initial motion is now 035/19 kt. The cyclone is accelerating
northeastward as it moves into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow
to the east of a deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic.
This general motion should continue for 24 h or so. After that,
Leslie or its remnants should turn eastward and east-southeastward
on the southwestern side of another deep-layer trough located over
the northeastern Atlantic, with this motion continuing until the
system dissipates. There are no significant changes in the track
guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is
similar to the previous track.

Shear over Leslie should remain relatively low for the next 12-18
h, allowing the current convection to continue and the system to
maintain tropical cyclone status during that time. The global
models have come into good agreement that Leslie will merge with a
frontal system to become extratropical between 24-36 h, and thus the
intensity forecast status has been adjusted accordingly. The
extratropical cyclone should subsequently weaken and be absorbed
into the larger system over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. It should
be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure area
through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open trough
before then due to the fast forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 29.3N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 31.8N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 34.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 36.7N 33.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0000Z 37.1N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/1200Z 36.0N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0000Z 35.3N 19.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 120235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 47.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 47.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.8N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.8N 39.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.7N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.1N 28.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.3N 19.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 120235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 47.9W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Leslie.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 47.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and a
northeastward to east-northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass south of
the Azores late Sunday or Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. After
that, Leslie is likely to weaken and become extratropical Saturday
night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 112033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Leslie continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, struggling to
produce convection. The center of the system continues to be exposed
at it is accelerating to the northeast within an unfavorable
environment. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have come
down some between 30-45 kt with the final CI value from TAFB,
T3.0/45 kt. This is in good agreement with the satellite derived
winds from the scatterometer pass earlier today. Thus, will keep the
intensity steady at 45 kt with this advisory.

The storm will remain in a hostile environment with strong vertical
wind shear and dry air inhibiting convection over the system for the
next day or so. In about 18-24 h the shear is forecast to decrease
for a short-period of time, and model simulated satellite suggest
that Leslie will be able to regain some convection near the center
again, which will prolong the post-tropical transition. However, by
36 hours the shear will increase and Leslie will be crossing into
cooler sea surface temperatures. This will all be occuring as a
frontal boundary approaches Leslie,and the system will begin to
acquire some extratropical characteristics, eventually becoming post
tropical at that time. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the
system to remain steady with some gradual weakening as the system
becomes post-tropical in 36 h.

Leslie has been accelerating towards the northeast, or 035/15 kt,
between the flow of an approaching trough to the west and the
subtropical ridge to the east. Leslie will continue to move
northeastward then east-northeastward with an increase in forward
speed through the weekend. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly
poleward in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of forward
motion, and lies near the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 33.5N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 36.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 13/1800Z 37.2N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 14/0600Z 36.7N 25.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/1800Z 36.0N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 112032
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 49.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 49.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 50.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.5N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 36.0N 36.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.2N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.7N 25.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N 21.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 112032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 49.4W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a
northeastward to east-northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast the next few days with Leslie
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 111448
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is
exposed about 70 n mi outside of the northern edge of the convective
area, which has been shrinking and weakening over the past several
hours. As a result, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
are both down to 45 kt. A pair of recently arriving ASCAT passes
still show an area of 40-44 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. The
initial intensity is set to 45 kt, which agrees well with the
subjective Dvorak estimates and the ASCAT data.

Leslie is likely currently experiencing more than 30 kt of
north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The cyclone will be moving
toward an upper-level ridge axis over the next 12 to 24 h, which
will cause the deep-layer shear to decrease. However, Leslie will
reach sea-surface temperatures colder than 26C in about 24 h, and it
is forecast to remain in a relatively dry low- to mid-level
troposphere. Some slight additional weakening is forecast today,
followed by little change in strength for the next couple of days.
The intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity model
guidance envelope. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery
agree that the cyclone will lose its convection by 48 h, but
phase-space diagrams suggest that Leslie could potentially become
extratropical before that time, by 36 h. The NHC forecast continues
to show Leslie becoming post-tropical over the weekend, in agreement
with the aforementioned guidance. Leslie is still expected to
dissipate by day 4, as shown by the global models.

Leslie has been moving toward the north-northeast, or 015/9 kt, as
the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. A
strong frontal trough will approach Leslie from the west tonight
into Saturday, causing Leslie to accelerate toward the northeast.
Leslie's interaction with this frontal system could cause the
cyclone to lose its tropical characteristics by Saturday night. On
Sunday, the cyclone is expected to turn more towards the east within
the mid-latitude westerly flow. No significant changes were made to
the first 48 h of the official track forecast, with a slight
southward adjustment at the 72 h point. The NHC track forecast is
very near the TVCA consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.4N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 31.7N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 34.6N 39.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 13/1200Z 36.2N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 14/0000Z 36.8N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/1200Z 36.4N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 111447
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 50.5W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 50.5W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.7N 45.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 39.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.2N 34.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.8N 29.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.4N 24.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 111447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

...LESLIE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 50.5W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2545 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 50.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue today,
and Leslie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day
or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 110843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning. Based on
geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still
exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern
semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward
and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend
of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB.

The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days.
Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain
moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become
drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast
track. Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday,
if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery. There is still
the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical
characteristics in 48-72 h as well. For now, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over
the weekend and dissipating early next week.

Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has
turned northward at 9 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is
expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast
and east-northeast over the weekend. The latest track forecast is
essentially the same as the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 25.5N 50.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 110838
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 50.8W
ABOUT 1635 MI...2630 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn towards
northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward speed
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue and Leslie
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 110837
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 50.8W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 50.8W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 110232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AND TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 51.2W
ABOUT 1700 MI...2740 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 51.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).A turn
toward the north is expected early Friday, followed by a turn
towards northeast with an increase in forward speed through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast to continue and Leslie is
forecast to become post-tropical in couple days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 110232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

Leslie's center continues to be well exposed to the north of the
convection, as northerly wind shear continues to impact the system.
A recent scatterometer pass depicted winds of 50-55 kt. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS have come down this
cycle and range from 45-55 kt which is in good agreement with the
scatterometer pass. Therefore, the initial intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 55 kt.

The storm is within a rather hostile environment with strong
northerly shear displacing the convection from the center, and this
shear is expected to persist over the next few days. Leslie is also
dealing with very dry mid-levels as is depicted on GOES-16 water
vapor imagery and the drier airmass continues along the forecast
track. Models differ on the type of post-tropical system Leslie will
eventually become, with the possibilities being either a remnant low
or an extra-tropical low. The NHC forecast calls for the system to
become a remnant low in 48 h with model simulated satellite
depicting Leslie will fail to produce organized deep convection
within the harsh environment. However, if the system is able to
continue to produce convection for the next 36- 48 h, Leslie will
approach a frontal zone and take on some frontal characteristics and
become extratropical at that time. Either way, by day 4, the
post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate into a open trough.

Leslie is moving north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt. Models are in
fairly good agreement that a turn to the north will occur early
Friday as the storm rounds the edge of the subtropical ridge located
over the eastern Atlantic. The system will then turn northeastward
with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. There was a
slight left shift in the latest forecast guidance, as well as some
along track spread. The latest NHC forecast was nudged left and is a
little faster than the previous, near the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 24.4N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 25.9N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 28.4N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 31.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 34.6N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 13/1200Z 36.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0000Z 37.1N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 110231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 51.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 120SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 51.2W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.9N 50.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 49.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 45.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.6N 34.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.1N 29.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 102031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

The center of Leslie has been exposed for the past 6 h, thanks to
strong northerly wind shear. The center has continued to move
farther away from the convection as the afternoon has progressed.
The initial intensity is brought down to 60 kt, which agrees with a
blend of the various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Leslie continues to plow through a zone of strong northerly shear,
and the SHIPS guidance and model fields indicate Leslie will
continue to experience 40 kt of northerly to northeasterly shear for
another 12 to 24 h. In addition, Leslie is forecast to continue
moving through a relatively dry environment. Rapid weakening is
expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 h, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous one due to the weaker
initial intensity. If Leslie survives as a tropical cyclone for
another two days, which is not guaranteed, it will approach a
frontal zone in 2 to 3 days and could take on some frontal
characteristics. While all of the models show Leslie dissipating
by 4 to 5 days, there is significant uncertainty on whether Leslie
will become extratropical or just dissipate.

Leslie is moving northwestward, or 315/7 kt. Model guidance is in
good agreement that a northward turn will happen very soon as
Leslie moves around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On Friday and Friday night, the
hurricane should speed up and turn to the northeast, followed by an
east-northeastward turn as it accelerates further over the weekend.
There is a bit of along-track spread in the guidance after 48 h, as
some of the models show Leslie accelerating faster toward the
east-northeast. Only minor changes are made to the previous NHC
track to account for the models being slightly farther west during
the first 36 h of the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 50.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.9N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 29.6N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 32.5N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 34.8N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/1800Z 36.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 102030
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 50.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 50.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 51.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.6N 47.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.8N 38.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.1N 32.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N 23.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 102031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

...LESLIE RAPIDLY WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 50.9W
ABOUT 1710 MI...2750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 50.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the northeast
on Friday, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue during the next day
or so, and Leslie is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 101433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous
advisory. Strong northerly wind shear has been pushing most of the
convection to the south side of the low-level center. The most
recent GOES-16 images suggest that the low-level center is likely
just barely underneath the northern edge of the central dense
overcast. The latest subjective current intensity values from TAFB
and SAB are still 90 kt due to continuity constraints, but the
latest ADT and AiDT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased
down to 72 kt. The intensity is set to 80 kt, as a blend of all the
estimates.

Leslie has already entered the strong northerly shear zone that has
been advertised in previous discussions, and the guidance indicates
that the shear will continue to increase to over 40 kt over the next
12 to 24 h. Shear that strong, combined with the dry environment
that Leslie is embedded within, is likely to lead to steady to rapid
weakening. The NHC forecast calls for Leslie to weaken by 35 kt
over the next 36 h, in good agreement with the HCCA corrected
consensus, HAFS models, and the intensity consensus. After that,
the models hold on to Leslie, and there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in the timing of when Leslie will become post-tropical.
GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that puffs of
convection could continue through the weekend. The cyclone is also
likely to interact with an approaching frontal system by Sunday.
The NHC forecast continues to call for Leslie to become
post-tropical by day 3.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/6
kt. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that a northward turn
will happen very soon as Leslie moves around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On
Friday and Friday night, the hurricane should speed up and turn to
the northeast, followed by an east-northeastward turn as it
accelerates further over the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast
is slightly west of the previous one during the first 48 hours of
the forecast, and nearly identical to the previous forecast
thereafter. The official forecast is in best agreement with the
TVCA consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 23.2N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.0N 50.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 25.7N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 28.1N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 30.8N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 33.3N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 35.2N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/1200Z 36.6N 25.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 101432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

...LESLIE STARTING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 50.4W
ABOUT 1715 MI...2765 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 50.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected today, followed by a turn to the northeast on
Friday, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast over the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 101432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 50.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.7N 50.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.1N 48.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.8N 45.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.3N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.2N 35.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 36.6N 25.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 50.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100843
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous
advisory. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye feature
has filled, deep convection have shifted to the southern side of the
circulation, and the outflow appears to be impinged in the northwest
quadrant. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have
plateaued, with final-T numbers coming down. The initial intensity
is held at a possibly generous 90 kt, in agreement with the latest
TAFB and SAB estimates.

The window for intensification seems to have closed. Vertical wind
shear appears to be strengthening significantly over Leslie. Global
models insist the strong upper-level winds will strip away deep
convection and force in the surrounding dry mid-level humidities
into the circulation quickly. Given the relatively small size of
the hurricane, rapid weakening is expected over the next few days.
Leslie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday
and open into a trough by early next week.

Leslie is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. This motion should
continue through today as Leslie moves around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On
Friday, the hurricane should speed up and turn to the north and
north-northeast, followed by a turn northeastward and
east-northeastward as it accelerates further over the weekend.
There have been only minor changes to the latest NHC track forecast,
which lies essentially on top of the previous prediction and between
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 49.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.6N 50.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.9N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.0N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 29.5N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 32.0N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 34.2N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0600Z 36.5N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100841
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 49.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 135SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 49.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 49.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.6N 50.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 50.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 49.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 47.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 43.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.2N 38.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 36.5N 28.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

...LESLIE LIKELY PEAKED IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 49.8W
ABOUT 1705 MI...2740 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 49.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north and
north-northeast with an increase in forward motion is forecast on
Friday, followed by a turn to the northeast and east-northeast over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is forecast to weaken during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100244
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

Since the previous advisory, a small eye feature has started
appearing on geostationary infrared imagery with Leslie, surrounded
by a ring of very cold (below -70 C) cloud top temperatures. This
structure is also supported by an earlier SAR-RCM2 pass that showed
a tight inner core with a radius of maximum wind that had contracted
from yesterday. 00 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
were T5.0/90-kt and T5.5/102-kt, respectively. Objective intensity
estimates were somewhat lower, between 79-86 kt, and blending the
data results in a 90 kt intensity this cycle. A Saildrone (SD-1036)
appears to be near the path of Leslie, and is currently reporting
sustained tropical-storm-force winds that are quickly increasing
about 50 n mi northwest of the center.

As noted previously, another saildrone (SD-1040) indicated that
sea-surface temperatures near Leslie are warmer than expected, near
29 C. At the same time, the hurricane is in a very narrow region of
low vertical wind shear that should persist for another 6-12 h.
While the interpolated intensity guidance is a bit lower, the raw
model output of all four of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-A/B,
HMON, HWRF) show Leslie briefly becoming a major hurricane in 12 h.
Because the raw model output from these intensity aids has been
outperforming the interpolated guidance over the past day, the NHC
intensity forecast will now show a 100 kt peak tomorrow morning.
However, this peak is likely to be short-lived, as strong
upper-level northerly flow, via outflow from Milton and Invest 93L,
will soon overtake the hurricane, likely leading to rapid weakening.
Those same hurricane-regional models show Leslie weakening below
hurricane intensity in 36 h, and that rapid weakening continues to
be reflected in the latest intensity forecast. While sheared puffs
of deep convection may continue for a subsequent day or two,
eventually Leslie is likely to lose the necessary convective
organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The NHC
forecast continues to show Leslie becoming post-tropical by the end
of the weekend, though this could occur sooner than forecast given
the proximity of very dry environmental air and high shear affecting
the system.

Leslie continues to move northwestward, estimated at 315/7 kt this
evening. The track forecast is more straightforward, with Leslie
rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge to its east,
resulting in a gradual turn northward and then northeastward over
the forecast period. With that said, there has been a notable
westward and poleward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast was moved in that direction, but not as far as the
latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 22.6N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 49.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 135SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 49.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 49.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

...LESLIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT MAJOR
HURRICANE INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 49.3W
ABOUT 945 MI...1515 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 49.3 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north and north-northeast with gradual acceleration is forecast
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie could briefly become a major hurricane tomorrow
morning before rapid weakening begins and continues through the
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). Saildrone SD-1036 located about 60 miles (95 km) northwest
of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h)
and a gust up to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 092033
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

Leslie continues to take advantage of the little time it has left
under favorable environmental conditions. Although an eye is not
currently seen on visible or infrared imagery, a 1611 UTC AMSR2
image shows that an eye exists on microwave imagery, and it is
located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast.
Subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB are a unanimous T-4.5/77
kt, whereas recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have
been averaging in the 78-85 kt range for the past several hours.
The initial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt, using a blend of the
subjective and objective estimates.

Leslie's initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310/8 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Leslie is
expected to turn northward in 24-36 h as it rounds the southwestern
and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east.
Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response
to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The
guidance is a bit farther west this cycle, and the new NHC forecast
has shifted west of the previous one.

Saildrone data from the last several hours indicates that Leslie is
over sea-surface temperatures approximately 1 to 2 degrees warmer
than other data sources are indicating, and this could be the main
reason why Leslie has strengthened a bit more than anticipated over
the past 12 to 24 h. A bit more strengthening is forecast during
the next 12 h while the vertical wind shear remains relatively
low. In about 12 to 18 h, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of
strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level
anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to
cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While
it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to
3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery now
show several periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4.
Leslie might also merge with a front and become extratropical in 3
to 4 days. Regardless, Leslie will be traveling over much colder
water by that time, and the official forecast calls for Leslie to
become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 22.2N 49.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.8N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 25.3N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.2N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 29.7N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 31.9N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 35.4N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1800Z 36.5N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 092032
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 50.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.3N 50.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 49.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.9N 43.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 35.4N 33.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.5N 25.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 092032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT WILL REACH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 49.0 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
and north-northeast is forecast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight,
followed by weakening through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 108.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2024 20.1N 108.0W WEAK
00UTC 10.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 71.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2024 29.2N 71.0W WEAK
00UTC 10.10.2024 30.2N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 84.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2024 25.3N 84.8W INTENSE
00UTC 10.10.2024 27.2N 83.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.10.2024 28.7N 80.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2024 29.2N 76.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2024 29.2N 71.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2024 28.3N 66.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2024 28.3N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2024 29.2N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2024 30.5N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2024 31.6N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2024 31.7N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2024 29.5N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 48.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2024 21.4N 48.3W MODERATE
00UTC 10.10.2024 22.3N 49.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2024 23.1N 50.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2024 24.3N 51.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2024 26.6N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2024 29.4N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2024 32.8N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2024 35.4N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2024 37.0N 33.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2024 38.1N 28.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2024 38.6N 23.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2024 39.3N 18.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2024 39.8N 12.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.9N 18.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2024 14.9N 18.8W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2024 15.7N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2024 16.7N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2024 18.1N 26.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2024 19.7N 28.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2024 20.2N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 36.1N 67.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2024 36.1N 67.0W WEAK
12UTC 16.10.2024 37.6N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091610


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 091453
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the
center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located
underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some
of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB
and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt.
The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with
the Dvorak estimates.

Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9
kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as
Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate
toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the
cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical
to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus
models.

Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another
12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt
peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen
a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour
24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly
shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between
Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to
rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible
that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the
latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic
bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is
likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4
days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is
forecast at the end of that period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 091452
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 48.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 48.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 48.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

...RESILIENT LESLIE STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 48.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A slight reduction in
forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is
forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely today and tonight,
followed by weakening through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in
forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is
forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and
tonight, followed by weakening through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090837
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has
changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B
microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure
has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of
the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A
blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an
initial intensity at 70 kt.

Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight
intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie
moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and
over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global
models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW
Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to
spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical
Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the
cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is
forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a
post-tropical cyclone in 3 days.

Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt,
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in
forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.
Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in
response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from
the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is
based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049
UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090240
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

This evening, Leslie's structure has improved further as deep
convection can be seen wrapping around the center on GOES-16
infrared imagery. An earlier ISS-COWVR microwave pass at 2021 UTC
also showed a small inner-core eyewall feature. Subjective Dvorak
fixes from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65-kt, but objective
estimates from ADT and SATCON have jumped up to 79 and 74 kt
respectively, and thus the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt, in
between the subjective and objective estimates.

One thing that hasn't changed is Leslie's current motion, still off
to the northwest at 310/10 kt. Over the next couple of days, Leslie
will be approaching the westward extent of the subtropical ridge
that has been its primary steering mechanism, resulting in a gradual
slow down and turn northward by the end of this week. Leslie is then
expected to be captured by an approaching long-wave trough, leading
to a northeastward motion by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
track continues to be in good agreement with the track guidance, and
is just a touch west compared to the prior forecast.

Leslie's intensity prospects in the short-term have undergone a
reversal from yesterday. The shear that had been affecting the
hurricane has subsided, and SHIPS guidance now shows deep-layer
shear reaming under 10 kt for at least the next 24 hours. Even
though Leslie has been traveling over a cooler ocean left behind
from Kirk last week, the sea-surface temperatures still appear to be
warm enough (27-28 C) to promote intensification, as evidence of its
continued deep convective bursts which have helped reform its inner
core. The intensity guidance has responded to these changes by now
showing more intensification. In fact, the raw 18 UTC HAFS-A/B runs
now show intensification up to 80-85 kt in 36 hours. In addition,
the latest ECMWF run, not usually known for being at the upper-end
of the intensity guidance, shows significant deepening in the
short-term, with a forecast pressure down to 969 mb by early
Thursday morning. Based on these signals, the intensity guidance was
raised upward significantly in the short term, and now shows Leslie
peaking as an 80 kt hurricane in 24-36 hours. After that time, a
large upper-level anticyclone approaching from the northwest
(partially related to outflow from both AL93 and Milton) should lead
to an abrupt increase in northerly shear. Thus, rapid weakening is
still anticipated beyond that time, and Leslie still appears likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days, as its convection
is stripped away by the shear. The intensity forecast is on the
upper-end of the guidance over the first 36 h, but falls back to the
guidance mean by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.7N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 21.7N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 22.7N 49.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 26.6N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0000Z 33.0N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0000Z 35.1N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER AND COULD INTENSIFY MORE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 47.0W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 47.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual
slowdown and turn northward and then north-northeastward is
anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by rapid weakening by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090236
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 46.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 48.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 49.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.6N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.1N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 082033
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

Leslie appears to have made a bit of a comeback today. A couple of
fortuitous microwave images from the past few hours show a closed
eyewall. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB range from 55-77 kt, and recent objective estimates range from
65-74 kt. The microwave passes, the objective intensity estimates,
and the TAFB current intensity number all suggest that Leslie is a
hurricane. Therefore, the initial intensity is bumped back up to
65 kt.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 305/12. A gradual
turn to the north is expected in a day or two as Leslie rounds the
southwestern and western side of a subtropical ridge. After that,
as Leslie gains latitude late this week, the cyclone will
increasingly come under the influence of the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing a turn toward the northeast. Very minor changes
have been made to the official track forecast, which lies near the
various consensus guidance.

Leslie is forecast to remain in an environment of very weak vertical
wind shear for another 24-36 h. Given the closed eyewall observed
on recent microwave images, Leslie may be able to prevent dry
environmental air from entraining into its inner-core during that
time. Leslie will be traveling over Kirk's cold wake over the next
day or so, which will limit the instability. The hurricane should
remain fairly steady during this time, and the NHC forecast is near
the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 24 h. By 36
h, models show Leslie running into a wall of strong northerly wind
shear, which is forecast to cause Leslie to decouple and degenerate
to a post-tropical cyclone by this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 20.0N 46.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 21.0N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.5N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 27.4N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1800Z 31.5N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/1800Z 34.6N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 46.4W
ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.4 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the
north Wednesday night and to the northeast by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday
night. Weakening is expected to begin Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 082031
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 49.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.4N 48.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 42.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 34.6N 34.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 081436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

Satellite images show Leslie has made a bit of a comeback this
morning, with convection trying to wrap around the center. Microwave
passes also display that Leslie still has some inner-core features
including a partial eyewall. Overall, Dvorak estimates are about
the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay 60 kt.

Plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has been
preventing sustained deep convection near Leslie, despite
low-to-moderate shear. Leslie does have a short window where the
shear diminishes later today and tomorrow, though Leslie will also
be contending with less instability near the wake of Kirk. While
some of the guidance is showing re-strengthening, the above factors
generally argue for little significant change during the next day or
so. The new forecast is nudged higher than the previous one, but
lies below the model consensus through 36 hours. After that time,
the storm should encounter strong northerly flow of over 50 kt,
which is forecast to cause Leslie to quickly decouple and degenerate
into a remnant low by this weekend.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt.
There are no significant track changes to report as Leslie is being
steered around the southwest to northwest sides of the subtropical
ridge, causing the storm's motion to change to the north late
tomorrow and then recurve to the northeast later this week. Only
cosmetic changes were made to the last NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 081434
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 45.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 45.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

...LESLIE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, follow by a turn to the north late
Wednesday and to the northeast by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080836
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a shrinking cold
cloud top (-73C) irregular-shaped central dense overcast and curved
banding features in the south and north portion of the cyclone. A
recent METOP-B scatterometer pass revealed a somewhat distorted
asymmetric circulation located near the southeastern edge of the
convective mass. A blend of the AiDT/DPRINT/DMINT objective
estimates and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis yield an initial
intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.

A mid-tropospheric tongue of dry, stable air is penetrating Leslie's
deteriorating convective inner core from the southwest while
mid-level southwesterly flow undercuts the diffluence aloft. The
statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows a significant increase
in the shear magnitude by mid-period. This and the
ongoing inhibiting thermodynamic surrounding environment should
cause Leslie to lose its organized convection in 72 hrs, if not
sooner, and become a post-tropical cyclone. Further weakening is
expected throughout the period, and the official forecast indicates
that the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low this weekend.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt.
The forecast track philosophy has not changed for this advisory, and
Leslie should continue to move in the mid-level peripheral flow of
a subtropical ridge to its northeast through the end of the week.
A turn toward the north is expected around the 72 hr period as it
rounds the southwestern portion of the above mentioned ridge. Only
small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast just to agree a
little more with the skilled consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 18.8N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 19.8N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 23.8N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 25.0N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/0600Z 28.7N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0600Z 32.4N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080835
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

...LESLIE NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 44.2W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 44.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Leslie should gradually weaken during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080834
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 44.2W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 44.2W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 49.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 49.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 46.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.4N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 44.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080240
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

Deep convection has continued to pulse this evening in Leslie,
with the larger cirrus shield taking on an amorphous shape. Under
the cirrus canopy, the last few SSMIS microwave passes suggest that
the hurricane's structure continues to degrade, with the tighter
inner-core seen yesterday at this time no longer observed. The
subjective Dvorak estimates this evening were T4.0/65 kt from SAB
and T4.5 from TAFB. However, the objective intensity estimates have
decreased further, with the most recent DMINT down to 61 kt. Thus,
the initial intensity was lowered slightly to 65 kt this advisory.
The wind radii were adjusted a bit outward thanks to a helpful
ASCAT-B pass earlier this evening.

Leslie has maintained its northwestward motion, currently estimated
at 310/12 kt. There is not a lot of new information to provide for
the track reasoning this cycle, with Leslie rounding the western
side of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The hurricane should
maintain its northwestward motion over the next day or two, followed
by a turn northward towards the end of this week once it reaches the
western edge of this synoptic steering feature. The track guidance
this cycle is just a notch left of the prior forecast, and the NHC
track has been nudged in that direction, but is still quite close to
the prior track forecast.

Leslie is currently battling a fairly marginal environment with
mid-level southerly shear of 20-25 kt continuing to undercut the
seemingly more favorable 200 mb upper-level flow. A ribbon of very
dry environmental air that can be seen on GOES-16 water vapor
imagery, which is likely being imported near Leslie's center,
contributing to its degraded inner-core structure seen on microwave
imagery. This shear is expected to persist, before quickly shifting
out of the north and increasing above 40 kt after 48 h. Intensity
guidance remains insistent that Leslie will weaken slowly at first,
and then more dramatically after this shear increases. The GFS,
ECMWF, and HAFS-A/B runs show Leslie quickly becoming devoid of
convection after 72 h due to this shear, and the NHC forecast
continues to show Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.0N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 23.8N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 28.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080238
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

...LESLIE HANGING ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 43.5W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 43.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days,
followed by a turn more northward on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080238
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 105SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 44.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 48.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 072034
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

Leslie's convective organization continues to become a little less
organized this afternoon, although deep convection has persisted
over the center with cloud tops near -80C. A recent AMSR2 microwave
pass shows that the inner core has deteriorated from imagery earlier
today. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 60 to 75
kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set to 70 kt.

The system is moving northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The hurricane is
rounding the edge of a subtropical ridge over the central/east
Atlantic. The system should continue to move northwestward with a
gradual turn more north-northwestward then northward by the end of
the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is slightly faster than
the previous forecast and was adjusted slightly to the right towards
the latest consensus aids.

Leslie will remain in a marginal environment for the next day or
two, with warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind
shear. However, the system is entering a much drier air mass. Beyond
48 h, shear will also increase as the mid-levels will continue to be
dry. Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with gradual
then steady weakening throughout the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the
model consensus. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that by
day 4, the shear and drier air will cause Leslie to lose convection
and the system is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at
that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.4N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.2N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.6N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.2N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 26.3N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 30.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 42.1W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 42.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 072032
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 45.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 46.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 47.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 49.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.3N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071445
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

Leslie appears slightly less organized based on infrared and visible
satellite imagery. However, an SSMIS microwave pass from a few
hours ago indicated that there was still a feature resembling an eye
on the 91-GHz imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are T-4.5/77 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range
from 65 to 84 kt. The initial intensity is nudged down slightly to
75 kt, based on the degraded satellite presentation noted on
conventional satellite imagery.

Leslie is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. Leslie is expected to
move around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the
northeast of the cyclone and turn gradually north-northwestward to
northward toward the end of the week. The NHC track forecast was
nudged only slightly to the right of the previous official forecast
during the first 72 h of the forecast and is close to the various
track consensus aids.

Leslie will remain over warm ocean water through the 5-day forecast
period, and it will remain in an environment of relatively low
vertical wind shear for another 48 h. However, dry air in the
lower and middle troposphere should prevent any strengthening. In
fact, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening, and the
NHC forecast follows suit. Due to Leslie's small size, its core
seems to be vulnerable to the dry air, despite the low shear. Only
minor changes are made to the official intensity forecast, which
lies near the lower end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 48 h,
Leslie is forecast to run into strong northerly wind shear as the
cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough. This shear will
cause continued weakening. Simulated satellite imagery is showing
Leslie losing its convection beyond day 4, and the NHC forecast
shows the tropical cyclone becoming post-tropical in 4 to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 071443
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 40.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 41.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

...LESLIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 41.2W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 41.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through the week, and Leslie
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm in a day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070837
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Leslie's cloud
pattern has changed little during the past few hours. A fortuitous
SSMIS microwave image revealed a compact inner core with the
eyewall partially open in the south side. Most of the
convective curve bands remain confined to the north side of the
cyclone. The TAFB and SAB subjective and the UW-CIMSS objective
satellite intensity estimates support holding the initial intensity
at 80 kt for this advisory.

Although the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate a low-shear surrounding environment through the 60 hr
period, the global model forecast sounding reveals 15-20 kt of
400-250 mb mid-tropospheric westerly shear undercutting the
diffluent flow aloft. This mid-level disrupting flow could force
the drier, stable air identified in the water vapor imagery into
Leslie's deep convective core. This negative thermodynamic
contribution, along with gradually decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures ahead of the cyclone's predicted path should cause
Leslie to weaken through the period. The ECMWF and GFS model
simulated infrared forecast now indicates that Leslie will lose its
organized convection within inhibiting environmental conditions and
become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit.

Based on the above-mentioned microwave pass, the initial motion is
estimated to be northwestward, or 315/11 kt, just a little left of
the previous track. Leslie is expected to move around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of
the cyclone and turn gradually north-northwestward to northward
toward the end of the week. The official forecast is an update of
the previous one and closely follows the various consensus aids.

Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on an earlier CSA/RCM-3 SAR
overpass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 15.6N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 16.6N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.1N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.6N 45.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.9N 46.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 21.7N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 22.4N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 23.9N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 25.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 41.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.1N 43.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.6N 45.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.9N 46.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 48.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 50.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 49.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 40.4W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 40.4 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence soon and continue
through the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070242
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the
hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that
occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for
00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower
than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt
until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite
appearance.

Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at
315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by
a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the
next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or
north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward
extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the
guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north
and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's
intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical
wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow
layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear
appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water
vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's
small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along
Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in
part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity
guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit
of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity
forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In
fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the
prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these
negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above
the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over
the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 39.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 39.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow and
continue through the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070240
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 39.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 062034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 38.6W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 38.6 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and
continue through mid-week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 062035
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie's satellite imagery has become a little more ragged as
southwesterly shear has disrupted the overall convective pattern.
The deep inner core convection has become a little more broken the
last few hours. Subjective and objective estimates range from 75 to
85 kt, with a T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Based on these
satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt.

Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue
to build to the northeast of the system, which should steer the
hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. Models
continue to be in good agreement, the NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous which remains near the latest consensus
aids.

The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment.
Southwesterly shear has started to increase, with drier mid-levels,
and upper-level convergence along the forecast path. The latest NHC
forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening
beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical
cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and
weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as
suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 062034
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 38.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 061453
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has continued to produce a deep ring of convection around the
center, with a faint eye becoming more apparent on infrared and
visible satellite imagery, and GLM lightning data depicts lightning
occuring in the northern eyewall. These satellite trends all
depict Leslie is still strengthening within a marginally favorable
environment. Dvorak subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have continued to increase this cycle and range from 70
to 85 kt. Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity
is raised to 80 kt.

Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a
subtropical ridge centered to the northeast of the hurricane. The
ridge will remain anchored over the eastern Atlantic and continue to
steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. As
a result, model guidance is fairly tightly clustered with only a few
slight leftward adjustments made towards the end of the forecast
period, closer to the HCCA corrected consensus.

The hurricane has been able to maintain its core even though wind
shear is gradually increasing over the system. Leslie has about 12
more hours before it begins to move into an increasingly unfavorable
environment. In the near term the forecast allows for some
additional strengthening, especially if Leslie's eye can clear.
However, drier mid-level air is nearby as is depicted on water vapor
imagery, as well as a less difluent upper-level pattern, and
southwesterly shear will persist. The latest NHC forecast follows
the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday.
Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be
more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster
than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of
the global and hurricane regional models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 13.3N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.2N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 19.2N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.2N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 24.2N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 061453
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.2N 39.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 42.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 45.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.2N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 37.9W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 37.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today,
but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through
midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060857
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

The center of Leslie was embedded within a cold, asymmetric central
dense overcast for much of the overnight hours. But recently,
geostationary satellite images indicate an eye feature is trying to
emerge, with a warm spot in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of
deep, cold convection. Based on these satellite trends, the initial
intensity is raised to 75 kt, in best agreement with T4.5 Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Leslie is moving northwestward (310/9 kt) while being steered by a
subtropical ridge centered to the north and northeast of the
hurricane. This ridge is expected to build eastward over the eastern
Atlantic and remain the primary steering feature for much of the
5-day forecast period. As a result, the NHC forecast shows a
continued northwestward motion, remaining near the center of the
track guidance envelope. Only small right-of-track adjustments
were made to the previous forecast, mainly beyond 48 h.

Some near-term intensity fluctuations are possible today, depending
on whether Leslie is able to fully clear out an eye this morning.
But overall, the environmental conditions are still forecast to
become less favorable for further development in the coming days.
Drier mid-level air, a more convergent upper-level environment, and
increasing southwesterly shear should induce at least a gradual
weakening trend in the coming days, and this is reflected in the
latest NHC prediction. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical
cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and
weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as
suggested by the regional hurricane models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 12.9N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 13.7N 38.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.9N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.2N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 37.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 135SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 37.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.7N 38.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.9N 45.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 49.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...LESLIE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.3W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 37.3 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today,
but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through
midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060245
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 36.9W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 36.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday and
continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060246
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Leslie is holding steady this evening. Geostationary imagery
shows a growing Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with periodic burst
of embedded deep convection. An ASCAT pass from earlier showed
that has a small core with the center near the southern side of
the deep convection. Objective and subjective satellite estimates
range from 50 to 77 kt. The initial intensity is held at an
uncertain 70 kt, favoring the SAB and TAFB estimates.

The hurricane is moving at an estimated 310/8 kt. A subtropical
ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic has turned Leslie to the
northwest, and this motion is expected to continue, with a slight
increase in forward speed, for the entire forecast period. Model
guidance is in relatively good agreement about this forecast and
only small adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track
prediction.

According to the SHIP diagnostics, Leslie only has a few more hours
in the low vertical wind shear environment. On Sunday, increasing
wind shear and dry mid-level humidities should induce a gradual
weakening trend for the entire forecast period. Some model
guidance is showing that Leslie could weaken quicker than forecast,
and adjustments to the intensity forecast could be necessary in
subsequent advisories. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged
downward, slightly above the consensus aid IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 12.4N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060245
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 36.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 36.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 052046
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although
the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear
starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep
convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at
70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous.

The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7
kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue
to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more
northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several
days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered
and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one.

Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or
so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing
wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes
Leslie over Kirk's cold wake. There continues to be some model
differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur.
The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends,
and is slightly lower than the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 11.6N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 052046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 36.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. Leslie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by
tonight and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 052045
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 36.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 051450
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this
morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of
shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge
on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 65 to 75 kt. Using a blend of these estimates,
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.

Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt),
steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a
turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the
middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close
to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus
aids.

The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The
system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment
where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday,
increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over
Kirk's cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours.
There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they
differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur.
Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity
forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength
beyond 48 h. If trends continue further downward adjustments may be
required in future advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 11.1N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 11.7N 36.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.8N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.0N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.4N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.8N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 22.4N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051450
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...LESLIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 35.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 35.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by
tonight and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A
gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 051449
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 35.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 35.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.7N 36.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N 38.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N 40.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 42.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.4N 50.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 35.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 050837
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a
well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst
over the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both
T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than
that. Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt.

Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with
the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the
subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and
strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days,
which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a
bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to a blend
of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the
previous prediction.

The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this
advisory. Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and
should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This is the period
where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close
to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the
guidance. Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving
over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours.
All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they
differ significantly in how much weakening will occur. The NHC
forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status
through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model. However, the IVCN
and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane
regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane
intensity by 48 hours. Downward adjustments to the intensity
forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend
continues.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 34.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 050836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 34.8W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 34.8W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 34.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 34.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 34.8W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 34.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A northwestward motion with
an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and
continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 050239
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Leslie continues to become better organized this evening. An SSMIS
microwave pass from 1946 UTC showed that Leslie had a small inner
core with a well-defined mid-level center. Subjective satellite
intensity guidance has held steady while objective guidance has
increased significantly, creating a wide range of possible
intensities (56-84 kt). For this advisory, the maximum sustained
winds have been increased to 65 kt, which is closest to the SAB T4.0
classification. Leslie is the eighth hurricane in the Atlantic this
season.

A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is steering the
hurricane slowly to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. There has been
no changes to the track reasoning. The ridge should be the dominant
steering feature through the entire forecast period, turning Leslie
northwestward by Saturday and continue this motion through the
middle of next week. Only minor updates were made to the latest NHC
track forecast.

Based on the UW-CIMSS satellite wind analysis, Leslie is on the edge
of a shear gradient, with the core in an area of moderate-to-weak
vertical wind shear. Global models suggest environmental conditions
will be conducive for about a day and half before the shear begins
to increase and Leslie moves into a drier airmass. These conditions
should induce gradual weakening. There is still a large spread in
the intensity guidance envelope, which seems related to the strength
of the vertical wind shear Leslie could encounter. Overall, the
guidance has once shifted downward this cycle, and the NHC intensity
forecast has been lowered at 60 h and beyond. The forecast still
lies at the high end of the intensity aids and additional
adjustments may be needed in later advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 10.4N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 050236
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 34.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 34.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 34.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 34.2W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 34.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the
northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected by Saturday
evening or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast through
Sunday followed by gradual weakening on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 042044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...LESLIE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 33.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 33.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the
northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected early Sunday
into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 042045
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

The convective structure of Leslie has become better organized this
afternoon with a more symmetrical convective shield. There have not
been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes the last several
hours to help evaluate the structure further. The latest subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T/3.5 and T/4.0, from TAFB
and SAB respectively. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial
intensity is set to 60 kt for this advisory.

Leslie is moving slowly west-northwestward at 290/6 kt, and this
motion is expected to continue as the storm rounds the subtropical
ridge anchored over the east Atlantic. Leslie should continue
west-northwestward then turn more northwestward by the end of the
weekend with a slight increase in forward speed through the end of
the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly well clustered and
the NHC track lies near the consensus aids.

The intensity forecast has become a little more uncertain with
varying model solutions the last few model cycles, especially with
the peak intensity and potential weakening towards the middle to end
of the period. Northeasterly shear from Kirk has started to weaken
over the system this afternoon, and that has likely aided the
improved convective pattern. Leslie will be within a favorable
atmospheric and oceanic environment for steady strengthening over
the next 2 days or so. Beyond that time models begin to plateau the
strengthening or start a weakening trend, as Leslie encounters some
westerly shear and a drier air mass. There is a notable difference
between the GFS and ECMWF in how hostile the environment will be by
five days, with the ECMWF showing more shear, a much drier air
mass, and a much weaker Leslie. One other issue is that the
forecast track is expected to take Leslie over the cold wake left
behind from Hurricane Kirk. Given the lowering intensity guidance
and varying model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted downward, but still lies at the higher end of the guidance
envelope. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast may be
needed on later advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 10.3N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 10.7N 34.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 12.2N 37.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 13.5N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 042044
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.7N 34.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.2N 37.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.5N 38.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 48.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 041441
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

A recent SSMIS microwave pass depicted that Leslie is continuing to
become better organized and is trying to develop an inner core.
Burst of deep convection have continued to develop mainly on the
southern semi-circle as the system is still battling some deep-layer
northeasterly wind shear. Given the improved convective pattern the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this cycle with
a data-T 3.5/55 kt, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates
and the improving structure, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.

Leslie is moving slowly westward at 280/5 kt, along the southern
periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will continue to
steer Leslie, with a gradual turn west-northwestward then
northwestward as it rounds the ridge. Leslie should continue
north-westward with a slight increase in forward speed through the
end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very near the
previous forecast track, which lies between the HCCA HFIP-corrected
consensus and simple consensus aids.

Northeasterly shear should begin to decrease later today as
Hurricane Kirk continues to pull further away from the system.
Strengthening is then forecast over the next 2-3 days with warm sea
surface temperatures, upper-level divergence and low deep-layer
shear. The intensity guidance, especially the peak has come down
this cycle, and that is a combination of a few factors. In about 3
days, Leslie is forecast to move over the cold wake of Kirk, and
encounter increasing dry air, mid-level shear, and the upper-level
pattern also become a little less diffluent. This should cause the
intensity of Leslie to plateau through the end of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and is
slightly lower than the previous forecast, but lies near the higher
end of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 10.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 041440
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 33.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 33.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 32.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 33.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 041440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 33.0W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 33.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday
into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 040845
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

A 0421 UTC GMI microwave pass showed that Leslie has developed a
well-defined low-level structure, along with what appears to be an
attempt at an eyewall feature south of the center. This asymmetry
in the convection is the result of continued moderate shear out of
the north-northeast. ASCAT-C data from several hours ago showed
several 44-kt wind barbs northwest of the center. Given the
typical undersampling of this instrument, and the storm's improved
structure despite the shear, the initial intensity is estimated to
be 50 kt.

The GMI and ASCAT passes helped immensely in locating Leslie's
center, which is a little farther south than previously estimated.
Leslie is moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, along the southern
periphery of the subtropical ridge. With the ridge expected to
remain centered over the eastern Atlantic, Leslie is forecast to
gradually turn west-northwestward later today and then toward the
northwest in about 48 hours, with that motion continuing through
the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is near a blend of
the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and any differences from the
previous prediction should be considered negligible.

The deep-layer shear affecting Leslie is likely to abate in about
12 hours. However, there are a few environmental features that
could potentially limit Leslie's rate of intensification.
Mid-level shear and dry air are shown to be the biggest negative
factors in the SHIPS diagnostics, and Leslie may end up moving over
Hurricane Kirk's cold wake. Additional strengthening is still
anticipated, however much of the intensity guidance has come down
on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than
the previous forecast to follow this trend, but it lies near or
above the highest intensity models for most of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 9.8N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 10.1N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 10.5N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 11.0N 36.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 11.8N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 13.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 20.3N 47.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 040844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 32.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 32.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 32.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.1N 33.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.5N 34.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.0N 36.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.8N 37.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 38.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 40.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 47.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 32.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 32.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 32.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 040235
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

There has been little change in Leslie's appearance this evening.
Based on the CIMSS-UW satellite wind analyses, the storm is still
being sheared by the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. Convection
continues to pulse near the center with a curved band wrapping
around the southern portion of the circulation. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates have held steady this cycle and the
initial intensity remains at 45 kt.

Leslie is moving slowly just south of due west at 265/5 kt. A
subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to
slowly move Leslie westward overnight and then gradually turn the
storm west-northwestward on Friday. By the end of the weekend,
Leslie is expected to accelerate and turn northwestward. The latest
NHC track forecast have been nudged slightly westward from the
previous prediction, largely due to a more westward initial
position.

Despite the vertical wind shear caused by Hurricane Kirk, Leslie is
expected to steadily strengthen in next couple of days due to warm
ocean waters and sufficient mid-level moisture. As the shear abates
in 48-72 h, Leslie could strengthen more quickly, however the spread
in model guidance is rather large as these forecast hours. Factors
such as how long Leslie is over Kirk's cold wake could slow or stall
intensification. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged
from the earlier advisory and lies near the top of the guidance
envelope, closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 10.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 040233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 32.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 32.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 31.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 32.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...LITTLE LESLIE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 32.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 32.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this is expected to
continue through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon or evening a
slightly faster west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 032038
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to
battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center
is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and
convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective
Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of
3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt.

The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the
southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic.
Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so
before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to
the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly
westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and
lies near the simple consensus aids.

Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is
expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk
lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and
oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has
increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested
the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity
forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still
lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The
intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period
as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 032038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 31.5W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 31.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster
west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 032037
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 31.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 31.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 31.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 31.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 031437
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 30.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).A slow westward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster
west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie
is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 031438
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Leslie is becoming better organized this morning. An earlier
microwave pass depicted a more well-defined center with better
defined curved banding features. Recent satellite-derived wind data
depicts max winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates range from 35-40 kt. Given the
improved organizational structure and satellite trends will lean
towards the higher end of these estimates with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion
of 260/4 kt to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. As we move into Friday and this weekend the system will
gradually turn west-northwestward then northwestward increasing its
forward speed rounding the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is
tightly clustered and in fairly good agreement. The NHC track
forecast is very near the previous, and lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids.

The system is still feeling some of the effects of the outflow of
Kirk, however as Kirk begins to move further away shear is forecast
to weaken. The oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions are
conducive for steady strengthening with warm sea surface temperature
and plenty of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
upper-end of the guidance envelope given the improved structure and
favorable environment, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus.
Towards the end of the forecast period the intensity forecast
plateaus given the system is forecast to track behind the cold wake
of Hurricane Kirk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 10.1N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 031437
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 30.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 030840
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

The satellite structure of Leslie has changed little since the
previous advisory, with small curved bands of convection primarily
on the eastern side of the storm. Upper-level outflow from distant
Hurricane Kirk continues to impinge on the western portion of the
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in best
agreement with a T2.5/35-kt TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.

Leslie is moving slowly westward (265/5 kt) to the south of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest and northwest, along with a slight increase in
forward speed, is forecast on Friday and over the weekend while the
storm moves around the western extent of the ridge. The models are
in reasonably good agreement on this scenario through the 5-day
forecast period. The updated NHC prediction is virtually unchanged
from the previous one, and lies near or in between the multi-model
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

As the distance between Kirk and slow-moving Leslie grows, the wind
shear over Leslie should diminish. This will provide a more
conducive environment for the storm to steadily strengthen within a
moist environment over warm waters. There is some spread in the
intensity guidance regarding how much strengthening will occur
during the next 2-3 days, with the HAFS-A/B models much higher than
the global models and statistical-dynamical aids. Given the storm's
current structure and slow forward speed, the NHC forecast remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the IVCN simple
consensus aid. This forecast brings Leslie to hurricane strength by
early Saturday. As previously noted, the intensity of Leslie could
plateau thereafter if it follows a similar track to Kirk and
encounters the cool wake left behind by the hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 10.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030839
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...LESLIE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 30.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster
west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 030838
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 30.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 030237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the
system has become better organized with convective bands wrapping
about two-thirds of the way around the center. A partial ASCAT pass
from around 2230 UTC showed winds very close to tropical storm
force northeast of the center. Since the system has continued to
become organized since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Leslie.
This intensity estimate is also in agreement with a 2.5 Dvorak
classification from TAFB.

Leslie is moving slowly to the west at about 5 kt. A continued slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2
to 3 days as Leslie remains steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its
north. Beyond that time, a slightly faster motion to the northwest
is predicted as the storm moves on the western periphery of the
ridge and approaches a broad trough over the central Atlantic. The
models are in fair agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Leslie is currently in a moderate wind shear environment due to the
outflow from major Hurricane Kirk to its northwest. However, the
shear is expected to lessen while Leslie remains over warm waters
and in a moist environment. These condition should support steady
strengthening during the next few days, and the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one. Beyond a few
days, Leslie is predicted to move over Kirk's prior track and
associated cool wake, and into a slightly drier air mass. These
conditions could cause the intensity to level off. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the latest HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 10.4N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 030236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 30.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 30.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 29.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 30.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...LESLIE FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 30.1W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 30.1 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is
expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 022041
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024

Tropical Depression Thirteen has become a little better organized
since the last advisory, with improving circulation definition and
convection continuing to curve cyclonically in a banded fashion on
its western side. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have not
changed much this afternoon, still at T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25-kt from SAB, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt.

The depression appears to be moving just south of due west following
along from previous fixes with a current estimated motion at 260/7
kt. This motion has resulted in a slight southward track shift from
the previous forecast but remains close to the consensus aid TVCN.
This motion should continue over the next day or so guided by a
steering ridge to the north and enhanced convection along the
southern semicircle potentially pulling it southward as the
depression organizes. Track guidance then shows TD13 turning
west-northwestward after 48 hours and ultimately northwestward
towards the end of the forecast period as the ridge steering becomes
more eroded on its western side. The track guidance was very
similar to the previous cycle, albeit a touch further south in 5
days, and the latest NHC track has been nudged a bit further south
towards the end of the forecast.

The forecast for this cycle shows a somewhat faster intensification
rate than the prior advisory, with the system now becoming a
hurricane in 48 hours, and peaking at 80 kt in 72 hours, due to
decreasing shear and plenty of warm ocean waters and moisture early
on in the forecast. The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the
intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter
the edge of Hurricane Kirk's large area of ocean upwelling. Both
HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer
term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13
ends up tracking further south than forecasted.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 10.5N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 022037
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 29.7W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 29.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the
depression could become a hurricane by the end of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 022037
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 29.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 29.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 29.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 29.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 021445
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024

The system we have been monitoring several hundred miles to the
southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands has become
gradually better organized this morning with some curved bands
organizing to the west of the estimated center. Visible satellite
images show that at least a broad closed circulation has developed.
Based on the latest subjective Dvorak fixes of T2.5/35-kt from TAFB
and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity in between these
estimates at 30 kt.

The depressions initial motion appears to be slowly due west, at
270/6 kt. Over the next day or two this motion should continue,
though some of the track guidance actually shows a south of due west
motion, partially related to the steering flow and also the
possibility that the center might try to reform underneath deep
convective bursts in the southern semicircle. After 48 h, the
guidance shows TD13 turning west-northwestward and then
northwestward by the end of the forecast as mid-level ridging
becomes more eroded on its northwestern side while a large long-wave
trough becomes established over the Northwest Atlantic. The initial
NHC track forecast has opted to favor a track close to the consensus
aid TVCN. Interestingly, both the GFS and ECMWF are on the east side
of the guidance, while HCCA is on the western side by the end of the
forecast period.

Intensity wise, initial strengthening could be on the slower end, as
the system has to deal with some northwesterly shear related of the
outflow from the much larger Hurricane Kirk impinging upon the
system. However, the guidance insists this shear will soon decrease,
especially after 24-36 h where the upper-level flow seems to split
off into a cutoff low to the southwest, and a upper-level trough
that shifts east of the depression, leaving the depression in a more
favorable upper-level diffluent pattern. After TD13's inner core
become better defined, the rate of intensification could increase
after 36 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast forecasts the
depression to become a hurricane in 3 days. Additional
intensification is forecast after that point as long as the cyclone
tracks far enough away from the cold ocean wake left behind by Kirk.
This forecast is roughly in the mean of the intensity guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 29.1W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 29.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a
general westward motion is expected for the next day or so followed
by a turn more west-northwestward by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become
a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 021442
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 29.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 29.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 28.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 29.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN