Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KIRK-24 in Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany from 29 Sep 2024 21:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2024 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIRK-24

in Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

07/10 14:43 WTNT42KNHC071441

07/10 14:42 WTNT32KNHC071441

07/10 14:42 WTNT22KNHC071440

07/10 08:41 WTNT22KNHC070839

07/10 08:41 WTNT32KNHC070839

07/10 08:41 WTNT42KNHC070839

07/10 02:35 WTNT42KNHC070232

07/10 02:34 WTNT22KNHC070231

07/10 02:34 WTNT32KNHC070232

06/10 20:39 WTNT42KNHC062037

06/10 20:38 WTNT32KNHC062035

06/10 20:37 WTNT22KNHC062034

06/10 14:58 WTNT42KNHC061456

06/10 14:57 WTNT22KNHC061455

06/10 14:57 WTNT32KNHC061455

06/10 08:52 WTNT42KNHC060850

06/10 08:51 WTNT32KNHC060849

06/10 08:51 WTNT22KNHC060849

06/10 02:46 WTNT42KNHC060244

06/10 02:46 WTNT22KNHC060243

06/10 02:46 WTNT32KNHC060243

05/10 20:50 WTNT42KNHC052048

05/10 20:49 WTNT22KNHC052047

05/10 20:49 WTNT32KNHC052047

05/10 14:54 WTNT42KNHC051452

05/10 14:53 WTNT22KNHC051451

05/10 14:53 WTNT32KNHC051451

05/10 08:42 WTNT42KNHC050840

05/10 08:41 WTNT22KNHC050839

05/10 08:40 WTNT32KNHC050839

05/10 02:35 WTNT42KNHC050232

05/10 02:33 WTNT32KNHC050232

05/10 02:33 WTNT22KNHC050231

04/10 20:48 WTNT42KNHC042045

04/10 20:47 WTNT32KNHC042045

04/10 20:47 WTNT22KNHC042044

04/10 14:34 WTNT42KNHC041432

04/10 14:33 WTNT32KNHC041431

04/10 14:33 WTNT22KNHC041431

04/10 08:49 WTNT42KNHC040847

04/10 08:46 WTNT22KNHC040844

04/10 08:46 WTNT32KNHC040844

04/10 02:35 WTNT42KNHC040232

04/10 02:34 WTNT22KNHC040231

04/10 02:34 WTNT32KNHC040231

03/10 20:42 WTNT42KNHC032039

03/10 20:41 WTNT32KNHC032039

03/10 20:40 WTNT22KNHC032038

03/10 14:42 WTNT42KNHC031440

03/10 14:41 WTNT22KNHC031439

03/10 14:41 WTNT32KNHC031439

03/10 08:41 WTNT42KNHC030839

03/10 08:40 WTNT32KNHC030838

03/10 08:39 WTNT22KNHC030837

03/10 02:40 WTNT32KNHC030238

03/10 02:40 WTNT42KNHC030238

03/10 02:39 WTNT22KNHC030237

03/10 00:38 WTNT42KNHC030036

03/10 00:37 WTNT22KNHC030035

03/10 00:37 WTNT32KNHC030035

02/10 20:47 WTNT42KNHC022045

02/10 20:44 WTNT22KNHC022042

02/10 20:44 WTNT32KNHC022042

02/10 16:13 WTNT82EGRR021612

02/10 14:54 WTNT42KNHC021452

02/10 14:51 WTNT32KNHC021447

02/10 14:49 WTNT22KNHC021447

02/10 08:49 WTNT42KNHC020847

02/10 08:46 WTNT32KNHC020844

02/10 08:45 WTNT22KNHC020843

02/10 02:42 WTNT42KNHC020241

02/10 02:42 WTNT32KNHC020240

02/10 02:40 WTNT22KNHC020238

01/10 20:57 WTNT42KNHC012055

01/10 20:56 WTNT22KNHC012054

01/10 20:56 WTNT32KNHC012054

01/10 14:55 WTNT42KNHC011453

01/10 14:53 WTNT22KNHC011451

01/10 14:53 WTNT32KNHC011451

01/10 08:47 WTNT42KNHC010845

01/10 08:46 WTNT22KNHC010844

01/10 08:46 WTNT32KNHC010844

01/10 02:36 WTNT42KNHC010234

01/10 02:36 WTNT32KNHC010233

01/10 02:35 WTNT22KNHC010233

30/09 20:43 WTNT42KNHC302041

30/09 20:42 WTNT22KNHC302039

30/09 20:42 WTNT32KNHC302040

30/09 14:57 WTNT42KNHC301455

30/09 14:55 WTNT22KNHC301453

30/09 14:55 WTNT32KNHC301453

30/09 13:34 WTNT62KNHC301332

30/09 13:33 WTNT62KNHC301331

30/09 08:40 WTNT42KNHC300838

30/09 08:40 WTNT32KNHC300838

30/09 08:39 WTNT22KNHC300837

30/09 02:42 WTNT42KNHC300239

30/09 02:41 WTNT32KNHC300238

30/09 02:40 WTNT22KNHC300238

29/09 20:47 WTNT42KNHC292045

29/09 20:45 WTNT32KNHC292043

29/09 20:43 WTNT22KNHC292041

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 071441
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that Kirk has
completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone. Therefore,
this will be the final NHC advisory. Kirk is expected to remain a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the next couple of
days as it moves east-northeastward across the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean toward western Europe. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the
intensity forecast best matches the GFS and ECMWF global models.
Very little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast.
The track forecast is near the consensus models.

Kirk will be passing north of the Azores over the next 24 hours.
Large breaking waves are likely along portions of the coasts of the
Azores, along with gusty winds. Swells from Kirk may continue to
induce a high rip current risk along portions of the U.S. East
Coast for another day or so. These swells will affect Bermuda,
Atlantic Canada and the Azores for a few more days. Kirk will move
over western Europe by late Wednesday.

Future information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 41.7N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

...KIRK BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 38.4W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk
was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 38.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46
km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to
remain a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada,
and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 071440
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......250NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 600SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 260SE 230SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 230SE 230SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 180SE 190SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 38.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070839
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 41.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 500SE 540SW 430NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 41.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 200SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

...KIRK ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 41.0W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 41.0 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). An even faster
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to
become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070839
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition. The inner core
of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is
limited to the northern half of the circulation. The system is
moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an
extratropical cyclone later today. The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates.

Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level
dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength. However, the
system's wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to
be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. The
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS
solution.

Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion is 050/26 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days
as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow.
This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.

Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and
Atlantic Canada.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 40.2N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070232
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical
cyclone. Satellite images show that the associated deep convection
is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the
inner core has been eroding. In addition, there appears to be some
frontal features beginning to form. The initial intensity is
lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates. The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's
east side based on recent ASCAT data.

Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the
system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an
environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear. These
parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few
days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4. The models are in
good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS
solution.

Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion is 045/22 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with a notable
increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as
the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This
should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.

Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and
Atlantic Canada.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 38.6N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070231
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 480SE 540SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...260NE 290SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 290SE 250SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 250SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE 150SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...
...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 43.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to
become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 062037
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite imagery suggests that Kirk has begun the process
of extratropical transition. Most of the convection is
located on the north side of the low-level center due to strong
south-southwesterly wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB range from 65-75 kt, while the latest objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-80 kt. The
intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data
from earlier this morning necessitated an increase in the initial
wind radii, showing that Kirk is a very large hurricane.

There have been no significant changes to the track reasoning. A
narrow mid- to upper-level ridge east of Kirk will weaken over the
next 24-36 h, allowing Kirk to turn east-northeastward or eastward
within the zonal mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track
forecast lies nearly on top of the previous NHC track, although the
new track is a bit slower. This track is relatively close to the
TVCA and a bit slower than the HCCA corrected consensus guidance.
The NHC forecast shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night
and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, and should reach western
Europe late Wednesday, where it could bring gale force winds.

Kirk is forecast to continue to gradually weaken as it reaches
cooler waters by tonight. Additionally, the southwesterly vertical
wind shear is forecast to increase significantly over the system by
early Monday morning. Global models show the development of frontal
features on Monday, and extratropical transition has been moved up
to 24 h in the latest official forecast. Despite gradual weakening
as Kirk becomes post-tropical, the cyclone is expected to remain a
large and powerful cyclone until it reaches the coast of western
Europe. Therefore, the system will continue to spread very large
swells across a large portion of the North Atlantic Ocean for a few
more days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of
the guidance during the extratropical portion of the forecast, in
best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF global models. By early
Thursday, the cyclone will become elongated over western Europe, and
the latest NHC forecast shows dissipation in 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 062035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...KIRK SPREADING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 46.2W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1695 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 46.2 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected tonight. An acceleration toward the
east-northeast or east is expected by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days and Kirk is expected to become post-tropical on Monday, it will
remain a large cyclone with a large wind field through the early
part of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300
miles (480 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells will
spread to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 062034
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 46.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......260NE 240SE 190SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 500SE 540SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 46.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.
34 KT...260NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 230SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 270SE 250SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 250SE 250SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 210SE 220SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 130SE 160SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 46.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 061456
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Most of Kirk's convection is now located in its northeastern
semicircle as a result of increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear over the cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates continue to
decrease, with the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB at
T-4.5/77 kt. Some of the objective CIMSS intensity estimates are
still a bit higher, and the initial intensity is set to 85 kt, in
agreement with the objective estimates.

Kirk is expected to continue to weaken during the next several days
due to strong southwesterly wind shear, which is expected to
increase even more after 24 h. Also, the hurricane will reach
cooler sea-surface temperature below 26C in about 12 hours. Global
models indicate that Kirk should undergo extratropical transition
soon, and the transition should be complete in about 36 h. Kirk's
wind field is expected to remain quite large, which will continue to
generate a very large area of dangerous seas over the Atlantic. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
lies near the middle of the guidance.

Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast, or 020/22 kt within the
flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer
trough to the west of Kirk. The track guidance continues to be in
fairly good agreement that Kirk will accelerate while turning
northeastward and east-northeastward over the next couple of days.
The NHC forecast is close to the previous prediction, and shows Kirk
passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an
extratropical cyclone, then moving over portions of western Europe
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane
and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information
on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.

The initial wind radii have been increased based on data from a
recent ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 35.6N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 38.1N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 41.1N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 43.8N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0000Z 44.5N 15.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 46.7N 6.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 52.5N 9.0E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 061455
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 47.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE 95SW 50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......250NE 240SE 190SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 480SE 540SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 47.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.1N 45.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.1N 39.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.8N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 270SE 260SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.5N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 240SE 250SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 46.7N 6.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 190SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 52.5N 9.0E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 47.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 061455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 47.7 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An acceleration toward the
northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days
while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will
remain a large hurricane for the next next day or so before
transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290
miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of
the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward
along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today,
and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 060850
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Kirk continues to show the ill effects of increasing southwesterly
shear. Earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite images
suggest the hurricane is vertically tilted, with the low-level
center displaced to the southwest of the mid-level circulation. The
eye feature that was evident earlier today has filled, and satellite
intensity estimates are decreasing. Kirk's initial intensity is
estimated to be 90 kt, in best agreement with a T5.0 Dvorak Current
Intensity estimate from TAFB and recent UW-CIMSS D-MINT and D-PRINT
estimates. The wind radii of Kirk were made slightly larger based
on partial data from a 0014 UTC ASCAT-C overpass.

Kirk is expected to continue weakening during the next several days
due to the negative influences of increasing vertical wind shear,
decreasing SSTs, and a progressively drier mid-level environment.
However, the expansive wind field of Kirk should remain large while
the cyclone acquires frontal characteristics and transitions to an
extratropical cyclone by 48 h. It is possible that the hostile
conditions could cause Kirk to lose organized convection and become
post-tropical even sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity
forecast was adjusted downward to follow the latest HCCA and IVCN
consensus trends.

The hurricane is moving north-northeastward (015/20 kt) within the
flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer
trough to the west of Kirk. The various track models agree that Kirk
will continue accelerating deeper into the mid-latitudes while
turning northeastward and east-northwestward over the next few days.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, showing
the center of Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night into
Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone and moving over western Europe
during the middle of the week.

Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane
and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information
on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 36.2N 47.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 42.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1800Z 43.9N 20.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 51.5N 7.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060849
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 49.0W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). An acceleration toward
the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days
while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will
remain a large hurricane for the next next day or so before
transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of
the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward
along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today,
and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 060849
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 49.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 410SE 540SW 500NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 49.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 49.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.2N 47.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.6N 42.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 190SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 120SE 120SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.9N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 240SE 240SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 51.5N 7.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 060244
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical
wind shear. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is
becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant
is wrapping in more dry air. Dvorak estimates have decreased this
cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the
TAFB estimate of 102 kt.

The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a
deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest
official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus
aids. Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and
move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less
conducive in the coming days. Vertical wind shear should become
quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26
degree C isotherm Sunday evening. Global models predict Kirk to
become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed
into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern
Europe. The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these
changes.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East
Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the
eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more
information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 34.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 40.7N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 42.8N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1200Z 43.7N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z 44.1N 15.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 49.5N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 060243
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 420SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 49.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N 48.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N 39.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.8N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.7N 24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.1N 15.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 49.5N 3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 49.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060243
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...KIRK SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). On Sunday, Kirk should accelerate
and turn toward the north-northeast and northeast, followed by an
east-northeastward to eastward motion on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through
early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States. These swells are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada
on Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 052048
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Kirk continues to have a tight inner core, with deep convection
wrapping around the center. The eye has continued to become more
cloud filled, as shear increases over the system. The latest
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held
mostly steady with this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at
105 kt.

Kirk continues to move northward and increase forward speed with an
estimated motion of (005/17 kt) between a trough located over the
west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge in the east Atlantic.
Model track guidance remains tightly clustered, although there has
been a slight shift southward as the system transitions and becomes
post-tropical. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk
passing just to the north of the Azores on Monday as an
extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern
Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The
official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory, with a slight nudge southward towards the end of the
period following the consensus model trends.

Wind shear has started to increase over Kirk this afternoon, but the
inner core has been able to remain intact. However, the environment
will only continue to become more hostile as wind shear continues to
increase, with drier mid-level air, and cooler sea surface
temperatures. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early
next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one in the near
term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening in agreement with the
latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S.
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products
issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 29.6N 50.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 052047
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 480SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 165NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 052047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...KIRK MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 50.0W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 50.0 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week,
but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to
spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sunday, and to the Azores
on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 051452
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

The inner core of Kirk has become a little less pronounced and
ragged on satellite imagery, with the eye becoming more cloud
filled. Shear is starting to increase over the system with some
drier air intrusions becoming evident. The latest subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have come down with this
cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt.

Kirk continues to turn more northward (355/14 kt) within the flow
between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge to the east Atlantic Model guidance is in fairly
good agreement that Kirk should keep turning to the northeast and
east-northeast through early next week and increasing forward
motion. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to
the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and
then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe
by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory.

The hurricane is getting ready to move into a hostile environment
with increasing shear and drier air. The system will also be
traversing cooler sea surface temperatures throughout the forecast
period. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next
week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h, which is
supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite
imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous in
the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening beyond 60 h
in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S.
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products
issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 27.6N 50.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 30.1N 50.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 37.1N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 40.4N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 42.5N 33.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 43.5N 24.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 47.2N 5.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 54.9N 8.2E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 051451
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 50.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 50.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.1N 50.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.1N 45.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.4N 40.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 24.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 125SE 105SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 230SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 47.2N 5.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 54.9N 8.2E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 150SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 50.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 051451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK TURNING MORE NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 50.3W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 50.3 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week,
but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to
spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores
on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 050840
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

The eye of Kirk has become ragged and cloud filled during the past
several hours. The satellite presentation suggests that
southwesterly shear and intrusions of dry air are negatively
affecting the hurricane, as a pronounced dry slot is noted on the
western side of Kirk. As a result of these structural changes, the
satellite intensity estimates have decreased overnight. Based on a
blend of the latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB with recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates, the
initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt.

Kirk continues to turn more northward (340/11 kt) within the flow
between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The track models
agree that Kirk should keep recurving to the northeast and
east-northeast through early next week while accelerating within
strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC forecast track shows the center of
Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an
extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern
Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. No
significant changes were made to the updated NHC prediction.

The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
hostile over the coming days, with a marked increase in shear and a
drier environment surrounding the hurricane while it moves over
progressively cooler waters. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast
through early next week. Kirk should lose tropical characteristics
and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone between 60-72 h,
which is supported by the global model fields and simulated
satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of weakening, close to or slightly above the
latest HCCA aid. However, note that the wind field of the cyclone is
forecast to remain quite large through the 5-day forecast period.

Large and powerful Kirk is producing ocean swells that are
propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will
likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across
the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning
later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the
Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on
this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 26.2N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 050839
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 50.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......190NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 50.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 140SE 130SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 230SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 150SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 50.2 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is
expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Sunday
and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week,
but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to
spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores
on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 050232
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Microwave images indicate that Kirk is going through another eyewall
replacement cycle. The inner eyewall is still closed while a larger
second eyewall wraps about 75 percent of the way around the eye and
inner eyewall. The satellite intensity estimates have held mostly
steady, and therefore, the initial intensity remains 115 kt.
Hurricanes that go through these eyewall replacement cycles often
get larger, and Kirk appears to be doing the same. The 34- and
50-kt wind radii have been expanded a little on the system's east
side based on a partial ASCAT-B pass.

Kirk is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A turn to the north is
expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the
ridge, followed by a much faster northeastward and
east-northeastward motion Sunday and early next week when Kirk moves
in the strong mid-latitude flow. This track should take the core of
the system to the north of the Azores on Monday and then across
portions of western Europe by the middle of next week, Models are
in good agreement, and no significant changes were made to the
previous track forecast.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely in the short term, however, a
pronounced increase in shear, intrusions of drier air, and
progressively cooler waters should cause steady weakening beginning
on Saturday. Kirk is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by
day 3 when it is forecast to be over water temperatures in low 20's
C and embedded in the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is
in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles
through Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and
the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more
information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 49.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1610 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 49.8 West. Kirk is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is
expected on Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward motion
Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to
spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 050231
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.8W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......190NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.8W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 49.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 260SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 240SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 042045
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Kirk has changed little in structure during the past several hours
and remains an impressive hurricane with a well-defined eye inside
a central dense overcast. There has been no recent microwave
imagery to determine if the apparent outer eyewall seen earlier is
still there. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are mostly near 115 kt, so the initial
intensity for this advisory is set at that.

The initial motion is now 325/10. Kirk is currently approaching a
large break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low
centered near 33N 61W. During the next 48 h, the hurricane should
recurve through this break and accelerate northeastward into the
mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move
quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern
Atlantic. The track guidance more or less is the same as seen in
the previous advisory, with the exception of a southward nudge near
96 h. The new forecast track also has this nudge, but is otherwise
little changed from the previous track.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 h due to the
possible eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should
encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea
surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be
complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast again
follows the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest
to the GFS model forecast during the extratropical stage.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands beginning this evening, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 23.7N 49.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 042045
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 49.4W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1645 MI...2650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 49.4 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north and
northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and
continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands this evening, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 042044
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 49.4W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......190NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 49.4W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 49.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...230NE 280SE 210SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 041432
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

The satellite appearance of Kirk is a little less impressive than
it was six hours ago, as the eye has become somewhat cloud-filled
and the convective cloud tops have warmed a little. Recent
microwave imagery suggests that the hurricane may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer convective band wrapped
about three-quarters of the way around the eyewall. The various
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have trended
downward, and based on a combination of these estimates the initial
intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The wind radii have been tweaked
based on a recent ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion is 315/10. Kirk is currently approaching a large
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered
near 33N 60W. During the next 48-60 h, the hurricane should recurve
through this break and accelerate northeastward into the
mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move
quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern
Atlantic. There has been little change in the track guidance since
the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor
adjustments from the previous track.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 h due to the
expected eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should
encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea
surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be
complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows
the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the
GFS model during the extratropical stage.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 23.0N 48.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.3N 49.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 33.8N 48.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 45.3N 25.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 48.0N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 041431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 48.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.9 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and
continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 041431
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.3N 49.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.8N 48.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.3N 25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 48.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 30NW.
34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040847
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Kirk remains a large, powerful hurricane with an impressive
satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, circular 20 n mi-
wide eye that is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are
T6.0/115 kt, while the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates are
around 125-130 kt. A blend of these values supports holding the
initial intensity at 125 kt. The wind radii of Kirk were made
slightly larger based on an earlier ASCAT overpass.

A subtropical high to the northeast of Kirk is steering the
hurricane northwestward (310/9 kt), but a northward turn is expected
on Saturday while the hurricane moves between the western extent of
the subtropical ridge and a shortwave trough approaching from the
west. Then, Kirk is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the
mid-latitudes on Sunday through early next week, ahead of a
deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic. The track
guidance agrees on this recurvature scenario, and the NHC prediction
is very similar to the previous one with only slight left-of-track
adjustments to follow the multi-model consensus trends.

Satellite intensity estimates peaked overnight, and there is
evidence of some restriction of Kirk's upper-level outflow to the
west of the hurricane in recent satellite images. The shear is
expected to increase over Kirk during the next few days, along with
the potential for intrusions of dry air that could disrupt the
hurricane's convective organization. So while small short-term
intensity fluctuations are possible, the overall forecast trend is
for gradual weakening through Saturday, with more steady weakening
into early next week. As Kirk moves over cooler waters and into a
more baroclinic environment, it is expected to lose tropical
characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone by
96 h over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows the latest HCCA aid.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 22.3N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040844
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 30NW.
34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040844
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 48.1W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a
faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue
through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040232
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle
appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening
trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and
clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep
convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from
115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is
increased to 125 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general
motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move
along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is
expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the
ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough
and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate
northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in
fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track
forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with
the latest model runs.

Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so,
but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should
cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk
will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves
over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is
expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA
and IVCN consensus models.

Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells
to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely
increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the
Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles
by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and
the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see
products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040231
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 260SE 220SW 190NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 90NW.
34 KT...280NE 240SE 220SW 270NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 47.5W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 47.5 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible through early Friday, but steady weakening is expected
after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east
coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on
Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 032039
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Kirk continues to improve on satellite imagery, with a well-defined
circular eye. Infrared imagery depicts an inner core with cold tops
wrapping entirely around the eye, with lightning depicted on GLM
data in the northern eyewall. A recent GMI microwave pass also
depicts A tight inner core, and a vertically aligned structure of
the system. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
remained T5.5/102 kt. for this cycle. However, the UW-CIMMS
objective estimates and SATCON are a little higher and range from
110-124 kt Given the improved satellite depiction in recent hours
and a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set to 115 kt. Kirk is now a category 4 major hurricane
on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 315/10 kt. This motion
should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. Kirk
will begin to curve and turn northeastward this weekend between an
approaching trough the eastern/central Atlantic and the subtropical
ridge. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast
track is near the previous.

The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional
strengthening is forecast over the next 24 h or so. Beyond 36 h,
wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual
weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy
is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with
a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the
forecast period. Global model fields depict the system becoming
extra-tropical by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the
previous, with a higher peak intensity given the current initial
intensity.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.1N 46.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 49.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 31.7N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 35.2N 46.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 42.1N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 46.4N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032039
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 46.7W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near
latitude 21.1 North, longitude 46.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the
northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast
of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 032038
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.7N 49.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.7N 49.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.2N 46.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 36.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 260SE 220SW 190NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 46.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 90NW.
34 KT...280NE 240SE 220SW 270NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 46.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 031440
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry
air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become
re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center.
The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and
visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the
previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS
objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from
100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving
satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt. This motion
should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An
approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend,
will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the
aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly
clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous
and lies near the consensus aids.

The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional
strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall
replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further
strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear
is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is
likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to
allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing
tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast
period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by
Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP
corrected-consensus aid.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.4N 45.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 031439
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 45.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 45.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 45.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 95NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 240SW 260NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 45.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 45.9W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 45.9 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north
and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast
the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast
of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030839
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears
to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are
signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the
circulation. Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly
from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near
the CI numbers.

Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should
continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. After 36 hours,
Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough
over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward
by late Sunday or Monday. There is lower-than-normal spread among
the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and
overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the
previous advisory.

The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear
environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface
temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg
Celsius. If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the
eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to
category 4 strength. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end
of the guidance during the short term. After 36 hours, increasing
deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but
interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to
maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast
period. Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is
now forecast to be extratropical by day 5.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 45.0W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1645 MI...2645 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 45.0 West. Kirk is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the
north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast
of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030837
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 150SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 260NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 44.5W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 44.5 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected over the day or so with a gradual turn to the
north-northwest and north by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and
could affect portions of the Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030238
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification
over the past 24 h. Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye,
with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall.
Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be
surprising if it clears again soon. As noted in the special
advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but
were constrained. The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for
this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB. The
hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which
means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The hurricane continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to
the northwest at an estimated 310/9 kt. Little has changed in the
track forecast reasoning. On Friday night or Saturday, Kirk is
expected to gradually turn north-northwestward to northward and
accelerate in the flow between a deep-layer trough and the weakening
subtropical ridge. Later in the weekend, Kirk is expected to
continue accelerating north-northeastward to northeastward. Few
changes have been made to the latest official track forecast, which
lie close to various consensus aids.

Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear
conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so. The
short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now,
peaking at 130 kt in 24 h. By Friday, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder
of the forecast period. As the hurricane moves more poleward,
Kirk's tropical-storm-force winds are predicted to grow and send
large swell westward to the northern Leeward Islands and the Bahamas
over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 44.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030237
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 210SW 230NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 44.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030036
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Special Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk is undergoing rapid intensification this evening.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown an eye clearing and Dvorak
estimates are rising as quickly as they are allowed. The initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 105 kt, closest to the
final-T number (T5.5) from TAFB. The intensity forecast has been
increased between 12 through 48 h. No changes were made to the
intensity forecast beyond 60 h, or the track and wind radii
predictions. The next forecast will be released at the normally
scheduled time (11 PM AST).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0000Z 19.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030035
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0000 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.3W AT 03/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.3W AT 03/0000Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 280SE 230SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 44.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Special Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 44.3 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected over the day or so with a gradual turn more to the
north-northwest and northward by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and
could affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 022045
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying
hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite
imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the
inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37
GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial
intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure
on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the
initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still
northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to
report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the
western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary
steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to
become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and
Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning
to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher
latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with
lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track
is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the
ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions.

All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the
next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the
hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good
agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter,
inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the
upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual
weakening, as shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is
also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast
period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical
transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just
beyond day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 022042
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 280SE 230SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 44.0W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 44.0 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected over the day or so with a gradual turn more to the
north-northwest and northward by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several
days and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and
could affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 96.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2024 0 14.6N 96.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 03.10.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 28.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2024 0 10.8N 28.9W 1009 22
0000UTC 03.10.2024 12 10.3N 29.9W 1008 26
1200UTC 03.10.2024 24 9.7N 31.0W 1007 32
0000UTC 04.10.2024 36 9.5N 32.4W 1007 30
1200UTC 04.10.2024 48 9.4N 33.8W 1006 36
0000UTC 05.10.2024 60 9.2N 34.9W 1006 38
1200UTC 05.10.2024 72 9.1N 35.9W 1006 41
0000UTC 06.10.2024 84 10.0N 36.3W 1005 42
1200UTC 06.10.2024 96 11.4N 37.3W 1005 40
0000UTC 07.10.2024 108 12.8N 38.2W 1004 40
1200UTC 07.10.2024 120 14.5N 39.8W 1005 39
0000UTC 08.10.2024 132 16.2N 41.7W 1006 36
1200UTC 08.10.2024 144 17.7N 44.0W 1007 33
0000UTC 09.10.2024 156 18.8N 46.0W 1009 31
1200UTC 09.10.2024 168 20.3N 48.3W 1010 30

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 96.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2024 0 14.6N 96.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 03.10.2024 12 13.5N 95.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 03.10.2024 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2024 0 17.9N 42.4W 982 60
0000UTC 03.10.2024 12 19.4N 44.1W 975 66
1200UTC 03.10.2024 24 20.4N 45.7W 975 65
0000UTC 04.10.2024 36 21.6N 46.9W 973 65
1200UTC 04.10.2024 48 22.8N 48.5W 974 63
0000UTC 05.10.2024 60 24.2N 50.1W 968 67
1200UTC 05.10.2024 72 26.4N 51.1W 961 78
0000UTC 06.10.2024 84 29.5N 50.7W 946 90
1200UTC 06.10.2024 96 33.3N 49.4W 948 77
0000UTC 07.10.2024 108 36.9N 45.5W 949 80
1200UTC 07.10.2024 120 40.6N 40.1W 950 71
0000UTC 08.10.2024 132 43.4N 33.5W 957 63
1200UTC 08.10.2024 144 44.5N 26.8W 968 56
0000UTC 09.10.2024 156 43.8N 18.5W 977 53
1200UTC 09.10.2024 168 47.5N 5.0W 978 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 34.7N 65.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2024 12 34.3N 64.5W 1001 36
1200UTC 03.10.2024 24 33.5N 61.9W 1002 38
0000UTC 04.10.2024 36 34.0N 60.7W 1002 40
1200UTC 04.10.2024 48 33.1N 61.2W 1005 35
0000UTC 05.10.2024 60 33.1N 62.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 05.10.2024 72 33.5N 62.1W 1007 23
0000UTC 06.10.2024 84 34.4N 61.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 06.10.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.8N 135.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2024 36 14.0N 134.8W 1007 17
1200UTC 04.10.2024 48 14.5N 134.6W 1008 16
0000UTC 05.10.2024 60 14.8N 134.6W 1009 17
1200UTC 05.10.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 16.7N 106.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2024 108 16.5N 105.9W 1006 23
1200UTC 07.10.2024 120 17.5N 106.7W 1005 26
0000UTC 08.10.2024 132 18.6N 107.8W 1004 30
1200UTC 08.10.2024 144 19.2N 108.5W 1002 31
0000UTC 09.10.2024 156 19.8N 109.3W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2024 168 20.6N 110.7W 1003 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 12.5N 25.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2024 168 13.6N 27.2W 1009 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 30.6N 68.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2024 168 30.6N 68.8W 1007 40

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021612

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 021452
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk continues to intensify this morning. On geostationary satellite
imagery convective bands continue to rotate around the eye seen
earlier in microwave imagery, although this feature hasn't shown up
yet on visible imagery. The subjective Dvorak estimates were a
consensus T4.5/77 kt, and blending these estimates with somewhat
lower objective intensity estimates, the intensity has been raised
to 75 kt this advisory.

Kirk continues moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. A gradual
slowdown at a similar heading is expected over the next day or two
as the hurricane remains steered by a subtropical ridge centered to
its northeast. At the end of the week, Kirk will find itself between
an increasingly eroded ridge to its east, and a digging upper-level
trough to its west, and it is likely Kirk will be steered between
these features, recurving northward, and then north-northeastward by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the prior one, especially over the next several
days, but is a little further northwest thereafter, blending the
prior track forecast to the consensus aids TCVA and HCCA, though in
general the track spread among the track guidance remains relatively
low.

Kirk appears poised to intensify quite a bit in the short-term now
that shear has decreased as the hurricane remains over very warm
ocean waters and plenty of deep-layer moisture. These favorable
conditions should promote notable strengthening, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast now shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane in 24
h, and peaking as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Thereafter,
southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west could
begin to increase, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The latest
intensity forecast is a little higher than earlier, owing to
somewhat higher intensity guidance aids this cycle, but still
remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HAFS-B) but is
roughly in line with HCCA this cycle. Kirk is also expected to
continue growing in size with a larger than average radius of both
tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii as it recurves into
the open Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.0N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 43.0W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 43.0 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected
over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the
north-northwest by the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Kirk
is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and
could affect affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 021447
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 290SE 250SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020847
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Satellite imagery over the past 6 to 12 hours indicates a gradual
improvement in the organization of Kirk's central dense overcast.
The low-level center is likely underneath the southern portion of
the central convective area. The cyclone is also growing in size.
Convective banding in the southeast semicircle sprawls out a far
distance away from the center. The latest subjective intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, while objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are ranging from 61 to 71 kt.
The initial intensity is nudged up to 70 kt based on an average of
the subjective estimates.

Kirk has been moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt. A similar
heading at perhaps a slightly slower forward speed is expected
through Thursday as Kirk is steered by a subtropical ridge. By the
end of the week, Kirk will gradually turn northward in between an
approaching deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by the end of the weekend, and the
models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC
track forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous one through 72
h, but a bit west of the previous forecast beyond 72 h. The NHC
forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus aid.

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the
next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface
temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak
deep-layer vertical wind shear. These favorable conditions should
allow for continued steady strengthening, and Kirk is forecast to
become a major hurricane on Thursday. By hour 96, Kirk is likely
to experience stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should begin
a weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies in the middle to upper portion of the
guidance envelope. Kirk is a large tropical cyclone and is expected
to grow into a very large and powerful major hurricane over the
next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020844
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO GROW LARGER...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 42.1W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.1 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020843
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 41.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020241
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk has stopped its strengthening trend for the moment.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown a large primary band
extending around the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation, with a dry air intrusion making its way into the inner
core. An SSMIS microwave pass from 1915 UTC showed that the eyewall
was open to the southwest. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt,
closest to the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge
should continue to steer Kirk in the same general direction through
Thursday. By the end of the week, a trough exiting the eastern U.S.
seaboard should weaken the ridge and turn Kirk northward, followed
by a turn to the north-northeast over the weekend. The track
guidance is tightly clustered and only minor updates have been made
to the latest NHC track forecast.

Kirk is expected to continue strengthening in the coming days.
Global models forecast the deep-layer vertical wind shear to remain
weak and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
during the next few days. The vertical wind shear is predicted to
gradually increase over the weekend and will likely induce a
weakening trend by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and now
lies at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, closest to HCCA. As
mentioned earlier, Kirk is a large system and expected to grow
larger as it moves northward, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending far from the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 43.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.8N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 22.3N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 24.0N 49.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 28.8N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 35.3N 46.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...KIRK HOLDING STEADY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 40.8W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 40.8 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020238
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 42.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.7N 43.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 45.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.3N 48.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 49.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 28.8N 50.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 35.3N 46.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 200SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 40.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 012055
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk's appearance on satellite has improved with a large burst of
convection near the center and deep convective bands continuing to
wrap around the southeast side. A 1808 UTC GPM microwave pass
showed an improved inner-core structure with an eyewall noted on the
37 GHz channel. The UW-CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate associated
with the microwave image was 63 kt. This estimate combined with the
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix of 4.0/65 kt is the basis for making
Kirk a hurricane this afternoon with an intensity of 65 kt.

Kirk is moving slightly more poleward this afternoon, with an
estimated motion of 305/12 kt. This motion, with perhaps a slight
slowdown, should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is
primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge
positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will
become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North
America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn
first northwestward and then recurving north-northeastward by the
end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in
good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory
and between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Now that Kirk's inner core is becoming better established it is
poised to intensify at a faster rate. Favorable environmental
factors surrounding Kirk, such as decreasing shear, warm 28-30 C
sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of deep-layer moisture will
continue to support a faster rate of strengthening through the 24-48
h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major
hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. In addition,
Kirk's wind field is forecast to expand as the system moves poleward
through the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core
structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity,
though by day 5, shear increases again with weakening commencing.
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane
through the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle
of the intensity guidance consensus and still a little on the
upper-end towards the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.2N 40.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mora/Papin

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 012054
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 39.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 115SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MORA/PAPIN

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012054
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...KIRK BECOMES A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 40.1 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a general west-northwestward
to northwest motion is expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Mora/Papin

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk's structure on satellite is gradually becoming better
organized, with deep convective bands attempting to wrap around the
center, though there still remains evidence that dry air could be
getting into the core on the western side. Some of this less humid
air could be getting imported due to subtle northerly mid-level
shear above 20-kt as diagnosed by the ECMWF analysis this morning.
With that said, we have received some fortuitous surface data from
a moored PIRATA buoy (13008) that Kirk passed close by this morning
at around 09 UTC. The buoy reported sustained tropical-storm-force
winds at 4 meters, and a concurrent minimum pressure down to 990
mb. Thus the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt with an
estimated minimum pressure a little lower at 988 mb. This intensity
is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates but closest to
the latest DPRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Kirk is still moving west-northwestward, estimated at 300/11 kt.
This motion with perhaps a slight slowdown should continue over the
next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the
southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north.
The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave
trough offshore of eastern North America towards the
latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward
and then northward by the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar
to the prior advisory and between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

While Kirk is stronger this morning, it is feeling some of the
effects of the aforementioned mid-level shear, preventing
convection from fully wrapping around the center. However, other
environmental factors, namely warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures
and plenty of deep-layer moisture, are quite conducive for
strengthening. For now, the shear is anticipated to prevent a
faster rate of intensification, but Kirk should become a hurricane
later today. After 24 h, even the mid-level shear is expected to
decrease, and a faster period of intensification is likely in the
24-60 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a
major hurricane at the end of this period. In addition, Kirk's wind
field is also forecast to grow in size by the end of the week.
Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will
likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5 shear
begins to increase again with weakening beginning by that time.
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane.
The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the guidance
envelope early on but is near the higher end of the aids in 72 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 011451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 39.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 39.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 38.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...NEARBY BUOY FINDS A STRONGER KIRK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 39.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 39.2 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more
northwestward over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and
Kirk should become a hurricane by tonight, and a major hurricane in
a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center. A PIRATA Buoy (13008) earlier this morning
measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a gust to 51 mph
(83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). A
PIRATA Buoy 13008 earlier reported a minimum pressure of 990.2 mb
(29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010845
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that Kirk's structure hasn't changed
very much over the past 6 h. The infrared imagery consists of a
large comma-shaped area of deep convection. ASCAT data from Monday
evening as well as a more recent 01/0416 AMSR2 image indicate that
the center is near the northern edge of the convection. The AMSR2
image also indicates that the convective bands haven't become any
better organized around the center over the past 6 h. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and
the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49
to 56 kt. Given that the highest ASCAT vectors from around 0000 UTC
were about 43 kt, and taking into account the recent intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt, which is unchanged
from the previous NHC advisory.

Kirk is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt.
This general motion should continue for the next day or so while
Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward
the northwest is expected during the middle part of the week,
followed by a recurvature to the north over the central Atlantic by
the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good
agreement for the first couple days of the forecast, with a bit of
spread noted thereafter. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous official forecast through 72 h, and west of the
previous forecast at days 4 and 5, close to the multi-model
consensus aid TVCA.

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to persist along
Kirk's path through the next 4 days or so, with warm ocean waters,
weak vertical wind shear and a relatively moist and unstable
atmosphere. Kirk has a broad structure with a large wind field.
The tropical storm force radii are forecast to continue increasing
through the forecast period. This structure could limit Kirk's
chances for rapid strengthening, despite the favorable environment.
Little change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which
calls for steady strengthening over the next 3 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance envelope.
Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open
central Atlantic later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.9N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.5N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.7N 44.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 45.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 24.2N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 29.0N 49.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010844
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 37.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N 39.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.5N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.6N 43.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 44.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 45.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N 49.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010844
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 38.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 38.0 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and
could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010234
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with
curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of
the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of
Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large
tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based
on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.

Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general
motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves
around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is
anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a
recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central
Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made
to the NHC track forecast.

Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment
should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during
the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and
lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of
strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better
organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher
side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane
models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite
large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open
waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major
hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 36.8W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 36.8 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and
could become a major hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010233
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 36.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 302041
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on
satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern
side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All
intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to
50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values.

The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about
10 kt. Very little change was made to the track forecast, with
below-average model spread across the entire period due to
well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the
east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more
west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with
a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a
moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid
intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can
close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows
that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak
intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable
conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a
large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all
signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane,
possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the
dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 302039
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 0SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 35.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 302040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 35.7W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 35.7 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue
through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday and that motion should continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to become a hurricane on
Tuesday and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 301455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images show an expanding area of central convection near
the system with the low-level center on the western side of the deep
convection. Microwave data from a few hours ago showed that an
inner core is forming, with a partial eyewall noted on an AMSU
pass. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on 40-45 kt
winds from a pair of recent scatterometer passes.

The motion of Kirk appears to be westward at about 10 kt, with the
center apparently re-forming to the south within the deeper
convection. The track forecast is relatively straightforward, with
Kirk expected to follow the south and southwestern edge of the
subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic, resulting in a
path that gradually gains latitude and Kirk moving northward by
this weekend. Other than a small westward adjustment based on the
initial motion, the new forecast is very close to the old one.

The environment around Kirk appears quite favorable for
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a
moist environment and low shear in forecast. Given the formation
of an inner core, the rate of strengthening has been raised in the
short term, and rapid intensification is a distinct possibility.
The biggest negative to this system is probably its large size,
which could eventually promote eyewall replacement cycles and some
SST cooling ahead of the system. Still, almost all of the guidance
show Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane. The new
NHC intensity forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus
and the statistical-dynamical models, which are quite bullish on
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.5N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 301453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 34.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 34.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.8 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue
through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is
likely to become a hurricane by tomorrow and could become a major
hurricane by midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 301332
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
935 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

SUMMARY OF 935 AM AST...1335 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 301331
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
930 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier
estimated position. This information with an updated track and
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at
11am AST.

SUMMARY OF 930 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300838
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Tropical Depression Twelve has become better organized overnight. A
29/2338 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt
winds, and that the center was located near the northern edge of the
large convective mass. Although a 30/0334 UTC AMSR2 microwave image
showed that the center was still located near the northern edge of
the central convective area, curved banding has been increasing
during the night, with a large area of cold cloud tops persisting.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.0/30 kt
from both TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
are rising and now range from 36 to 41 kt. Based on the subjective
Dvorak estimates, a 30 kt initial intensity is held for this
advisory, but the depression is likely very near tropical storm
strength.

The estimated initial motion of the depression is westward, or 275/7
kt. The cyclone will continue moving westward to west-northwestward
for another couple days while a well-established subtropical ridge
remains in place to the north of the system. A gradual turn to the
northwest is expected around mid-week as a deep-layer trough over
the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. At the end of the
forecast period, an approaching upper-level trough near Bermuda will
induce the cyclone to turn northward over the open waters of the
central Atlantic Ocean. Some along-track spread is noted in the
various track model solutions, but the models are in good agreement
on the northward turn, with little cross-track spread. The latest
NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and is
about halfway between the slower GFS solution and the faster ECMWF
model.

Conditions are quite favorable along the path of the depression with
29 degree C sea-surface temperatures, a moist environment, and weak
vertical wind shear. Given the weak shear and the gradually
improving structure, the cyclone should begin to steadily intensify
soon. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 to 48
hours and a major hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies between the middle
and upper end of the intensity guidance suite, near the HCCA and
IVCN multi-model consensus aids. It should be noted that most of
the models indicate that the cyclone's wind and wave field will
expand significantly over the next several days, and the system is
forecast to become a large and powerful hurricane as it gains
latitude later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS
WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 34.1W
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 34.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to
become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 34.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300239
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The depression is gradually becoming better organized while
continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent
scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the
northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds
noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker
winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system
remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an
established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This
feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a
northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer
trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This
recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track
guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no
notable changes.

Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and
oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer
than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable
environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more
consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of
strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus
aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and
major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is
forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and
wave field as it gains latitude later in the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.9N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 33.2W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 33.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue for the next several days.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
forecast on Monday, followed by a faster rate of intensification
through midweek. The depression could become a hurricane by Tuesday
night or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 32.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 33.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 292045
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The system we have been monitoring in the eastern Tropical Atlantic
(AL90) has continued to become better organized throughout the day.
After an overnight deep convective burst, outer convective banding
has become better defined, noted by the most recent TAFB subjective
Dvorak fix of T2.0/30 kt. GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery also
shows that the circulation, which was more elongated this morning,
has become better defined on the western side, suggesting a
well-defined closed vortex now exists. Based on the above data,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve this
afternoon, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The motion of the new depression currently appears to be westward at
270/8 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to the north should continue
to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward over
the next couple of days. After that time, this ridge becomes more
eroded by a mid-latitude trough on its western side, resulting in
the system gradually turning more poleward through the end of the
forecast. In general the guidance is pretty tightly clustered for
the first 48-60 h, with spread increasing a little more thereafter
related to how quickly the system turns poleward. The initial NHC
track forecast lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), which favors the ECMWF track a little further west than the
GFS track.

For at least the next 2-3 days, vertical wind shear is expected to
remain low, mid-level moisture stays high, as the system remains
over 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Yet, the current large
convective envelope of the system suggests it may take a day or so
for an inner-core to become established. Thus, the initial rate of
intensification is a bit slow, a little under the guidance for the
next 24 hours, but then becomes faster and ends up near the IVCN
consensus aid by 120 h. The initial NHC intensity forecast shows
TD12 becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 13.8N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 292043
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...COULD BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 32.5W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2050 MI...3300 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 32.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so followed
by a faster rate of intensification by the middle portion of this
week. The depression could become a hurricane by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 292041
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 95NE 90SE 65SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 32.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

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