Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOYCE-24 Off-shore from 27 Sep 2024 15:00 UTC to 01 Oct 2024 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOYCE-24

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

01/10 02:34 WTNT41KNHC010231

01/10 02:33 WTNT31KNHC010231

01/10 02:32 WTNT21KNHC010230

30/09 20:43 WTNT41KNHC302040

30/09 20:42 WTNT21KNHC302039

30/09 20:42 WTNT31KNHC302040

30/09 14:38 WTNT41KNHC301436

30/09 14:37 WTNT31KNHC301435

30/09 14:36 WTNT21KNHC301434

30/09 08:39 WTNT31KNHC300837

30/09 08:39 WTNT41KNHC300837

30/09 08:38 WTNT21KNHC300836

30/09 02:52 WTNT21KNHC300250

30/09 02:38 WTNT41KNHC300236

30/09 02:37 WTNT31KNHC300235

29/09 20:45 WTNT41KNHC292042

29/09 20:42 WTNT21KNHC292040

29/09 20:42 WTNT31KNHC292040

29/09 14:41 WTNT41KNHC291439

29/09 14:40 WTNT21KNHC291438

29/09 14:40 WTNT31KNHC291438

29/09 08:41 WTNT41KNHC290839

29/09 08:40 WTNT31KNHC290838

29/09 08:40 WTNT21KNHC290838

29/09 02:35 WTNT41KNHC290233

29/09 02:34 WTNT21KNHC290232

29/09 02:34 WTNT31KNHC290232

28/09 20:43 WTNT21KNHC282040

28/09 20:43 WTNT31KNHC282040

28/09 20:43 WTNT41KNHC282041

28/09 16:12 WTNT82EGRR281612

28/09 14:43 WTNT41KNHC281441

28/09 14:41 WTNT31KNHC281438

28/09 14:39 WTNT21KNHC281437

28/09 08:37 WTNT41KNHC280835

28/09 08:36 WTNT31KNHC280834

28/09 08:35 WTNT21KNHC280833

28/09 02:35 WTNT41KNHC280233

28/09 02:34 WTNT21KNHC280231

28/09 02:34 WTNT31KNHC280232

27/09 20:37 WTNT41KNHC272035

27/09 20:37 WTNT21KNHC272034

27/09 20:37 WTNT31KNHC272035

27/09 16:12 WTNT82EGRR271612

27/09 14:40 WTNT41KNHC271438

27/09 14:37 WTNT21KNHC271435

27/09 14:37 WTNT31KNHC271435

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 010231
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Joyce Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Recent CIRA ProxyVis GOES imagery, and an ASCAT-C overpass around
00Z indicate that Joyce no longer has a well-defined center.
Therefore, Joyce is no longer a tropical cyclone and this is the
last NHC advisory. The ASCAT data indicated that winds of 25-30 kt
are still occuring near the remaining convection associated with the
remnants of Joyce.

Joyce's remnants are expected to merge with a mid-latitude system
and accelerate northeastward during the next couple of days.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 010231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Joyce Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...JOYCE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOYCE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 49.0W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Joyce were located near
latitude 23.0 North, longitude 49.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The remnants of Joyce are
expected to merge with a mid-latitude trough and accelerate
northeastward during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 010230
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 49.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 49.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 49.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 302040
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts
of convection just east and especially just north of the
generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes
downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this
advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst
does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt
for this advisory based on continuity.

Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the
current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The
official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce
fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous
track forecast.

Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce
is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the
cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains
unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant
low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Blake

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 302039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 48.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 48.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KONARIK/BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 302040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 48.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 48.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a
slow northward motion is expected to continue for the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce
should become a remnant low soon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Blake

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 301436
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce continues to struggle to remain a tropical depression, having
a fully exposed low-level center displaced to the west of pulsing
deep convection. This displacement is a result of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a central Atlantic
upper-level trough. With no recent surface observations or
scatterometer wind data available, 30 kt will remain the initial
intensity, reflecting the subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and
SAB.

The depression has meandered this morning, and the current motion
estimate is an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official track forecast
depicts a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates in 48
h, similar to the previous track forecast.

Continued shear coupled with persistent dry air should increasingly
inhibit organized convection, leading to Joyce degenerating into a
remnant low soon. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with total
dissipation in about 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 22.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 301435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...JOYCE BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 49.3W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 49.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a
general northerly motion is expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is
expected to become a remnant low soon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 301434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 49.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 49.3W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 49.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KONARIK/PAPIN

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 300837
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...JOYCE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 49.7W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 49.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day
or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is
likely to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and
dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 300837
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep
convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce
continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear
due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective
AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous
estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system.

The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of
westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt.
It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by
the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is
slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the
motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a
very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or
two.

Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and
the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate
into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60
hours if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 300836
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 300250
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.6W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.6W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 300236
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with
only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the
past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain
organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds
over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the
satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening.
Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce
is downgraded to a 30-kt depression.

The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast
to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends.
Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face
continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to
sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated
NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low
by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection
does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce
should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 22.3N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 300235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected on Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and Joyce is likely to become a
post-tropical remnant low on Monday and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 292042
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Joyce's center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its
convective mass as shear persists across the circulation. There's
generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective
estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set
to 35 kt.

The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce
is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer
trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor
disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature. The new
forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the
consensus guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward
with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing
gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC
forecast. The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner
than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 22.2N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 292040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 49.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 292040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JOYCE GRADUALLY WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 49.2W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 49.2 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Joyce is likely to become a tropical depression
on Monday and weaken into a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 291439
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The center of Joyce is exposed on the southern side of a small
area of deep convection due to continued strong south-southwesterly
vertical wind shear. The most recent scatterometer data from 1230
UTC indicates at least 35 kt winds are within the circulation, and
given the known low bias of the instrument, 40 kt is chosen as the
initial intensity, closest to a blend of the TAFB T- and CI-numbers.

The storm has been moving more slowly this morning, estimated to be
northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce should turn northward on Monday
due to a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic. The
only notable change to some of the guidance this cycle is that they
generally agree Joyce or its remnants will be less vertically deep
by mid-week. This evolution should result in less northward
acceleration as the circulation decays due to persistent shear and
dry air aloft. Thus, the new NHC forecast is a bit to the left and
slower based on the latest aids. The intensity guidance remains in
good agreement, and the only slight intensity change from the last
advisory is to show Joyce becoming a remnant low at 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.6N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.1N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 23.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0000Z 25.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 291438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 48.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 48.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.2N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 291438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JOYCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 48.5W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 48.5 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Joyce is likely to start weakening later today and could become a
tropical depression on Monday and a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 290839
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an
upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues
to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been
intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear
is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north
and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The
advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with
the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported
by a blend of subjective and objective estimates.

Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same,
or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the
east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during
the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3
days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough
around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the
previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus.

Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an
environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear
and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore,
weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent
with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 290838
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JOYCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 48.1W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a
depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 290838
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 290233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of
bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong
south-southwesterly shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt
based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates,
and a recent ASCAT-C pass. Deep-layer shear is expected to continue
affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of
the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a
relatively dry air mass. As a result, continued gradual weakening
is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical
depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA
corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The remnant
low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday.

Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt. An amplifying
deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause
Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of
days. Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could
accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough. The NHC
track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little
faster than the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 290232
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 290232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE
DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 47.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 47.5 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late
Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression
by early Monday and then a remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 282040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 46.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 282040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 46.7W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Joyce is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the
north-northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Joyce is forecast to gradually weaken, and could
degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 282041
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind
shear. Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just
north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the
low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon. Objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down,
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.

Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear
should induce gradual weakening over the next few days. Joyce is
expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a
post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday.
The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly
due to the lower initial intensity.

The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward
speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a
narrow subtropical ridge to the north. On Monday, Joyce should
turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the
ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic.
More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being
picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted
north and east. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north
and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of
the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 20.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.6N 87.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2024 0 36.6N 87.6W 997 14
0000UTC 29.09.2024 12 37.2N 86.5W 1004 23
1200UTC 29.09.2024 24 36.7N 86.7W 1007 11
0000UTC 30.09.2024 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N 40.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2024 0 39.7N 40.7W 967 67
0000UTC 29.09.2024 12 41.4N 38.2W 968 63
1200UTC 29.09.2024 24 42.8N 36.8W 968 53
0000UTC 30.09.2024 36 43.7N 34.2W 974 50
1200UTC 30.09.2024 48 44.7N 30.2W 987 44
0000UTC 01.10.2024 60 46.1N 26.7W 995 39
1200UTC 01.10.2024 72 48.0N 25.1W 996 39
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 50.3N 25.2W 993 38
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 52.0N 24.4W 995 32
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 53.9N 22.0W 996 32
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 45.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2024 0 19.5N 45.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 29.09.2024 12 20.6N 47.5W 1006 35
1200UTC 29.09.2024 24 21.4N 48.8W 1007 31
0000UTC 30.09.2024 36 21.9N 49.7W 1007 27
1200UTC 30.09.2024 48 22.6N 49.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.10.2024 60 23.3N 49.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 01.10.2024 72 24.2N 49.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 25.6N 49.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 27.0N 49.6W 1005 26
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 29.4N 48.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 33.5N 44.3W 1007 35
0000UTC 04.10.2024 132 35.7N 39.1W 1006 38
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 39.7N 29.1W 1006 37
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.7N 69.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 36.0N 69.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 35.7N 66.5W 1001 32
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 35.5N 63.5W 1001 32
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 35.7N 60.5W 1001 38
0000UTC 04.10.2024 132 35.8N 58.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 34.3N 58.6W 1006 34
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 33.8N 59.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 33.4N 60.1W 1008 18

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.1N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 16.1N 44.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 17.6N 44.0W 1003 34
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 18.8N 45.8W 1003 40
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 20.8N 48.0W 1002 38
0000UTC 04.10.2024 132 21.3N 49.2W 1001 40
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 21.9N 50.7W 999 46
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 23.0N 51.6W 997 49
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 24.7N 52.7W 997 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 22.9N 93.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 23.1N 94.2W 1006 24
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 22.8N 94.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 22.6N 94.4W 1005 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.4N 34.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 14.4N 34.9W 1010 33

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281611

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 281441
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce seems to be experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong
vertical wind shear. After maintaining a decent convective burst
overnight, southerly wind shear appears to be pulling the
thunderstorms to the north, partially exposing the low-level
circulation. A new burst of convection is now growing near the
center. Satellite-derived surface wind data measured a few wind
speeds greater than 40 kt in the northwest quadrant, and the
initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The storm continues to move at 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side
of a narrow and weakening subtropical ridge, and should continue
generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or
so. As a deep-layer trough over the northern Atlantic amplifies and
breaks the ridge, Joyce should slow and turn more poleward early
next week. The official forecast still shows the storm not
recurving to the north, as it is expected to be a shallow vortex at
that time, and instead drifts north-northwestward until the system
dissipates, similar to the previous prediction.

Atmospheric conditions are forecast to remain marginal around Joyce
in the coming days. The SHIPS model diagnostics show the deep-layer
vertical wind shear staying moderate-to-strong, likely forcing dry
air into Joyce's circulation. The latest intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and calls for little change in
intensity today, followed by steady weakening through early next
week. Joyce is still expected to become a remnant low by day 3,
however, models are now showing the system opening into a trough and
dissipating by day 4, and this is reflected in the official
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 281438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 46.0W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.0 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast
to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a
remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 281437
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed
little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level
center located on the southern edge of the convection due to
southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near
45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on
this the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous
motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow
subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a
deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the
next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to
the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by
an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in
generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is
some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models
forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned
trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for
a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the
trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from
the previous forecast.

Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global
models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In
addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and
subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength
during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce
will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not
sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or
5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system
approaching from the east.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 45.3W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 45.3 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast
to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a
remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280833
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Recent microwave imagery, including an 0022 UTC ASCAT-B pass,
indicates that Joyce's circulation is tilted with height, with a
mid-level center feature displaced about 40 nm north of the
low-level center. The scatterometer data also indicated that Joyce
still has maximum winds of 45 kt, which is also supported by the
latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes.

Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest (300/10 kt) to the south
of a narrow subtropical ridge. Deep-layer troughing is forecast to
amplify over the central Atlantic during the next few days, eroding
the ridge and causing Joyce to gradually turn toward the northwest
and north and slow down to a crawl by this time on Monday. Because
several of the regional hurricane models appear to keep Joyce too
strong in the coming days (more on that below) and show recurvature
with acceleration, the NHC track forecast more closely follows the
global models and is a blend of the previous forecast with the GFEX
consensus.

UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that Joyce is
being affected by moderate-to-strong southerly shear, which is
reflected by the satellite presentation. This shear is not
expected to abate during the next few days, and the storm will also
be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in
strength during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. Joyce is likely to lose its organized convection
and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low
should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5 and will likely be
absorbed by a larger weather system moving across the eastern
Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.9N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOYCE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 44.7W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 44.7 West. Joyce is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through early Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north
is forecast later on Sunday and Monday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected through Saturday. Weakening is forecast to
begin by Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by
late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Deep convection has increased and become more concentrated near the
center of Joyce this afternoon. A cold dense overcast has developed
and expanded over the low-level center of the tropical cyclone. As a
result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have risen, and the
initial intensity is brought up to 45 kt. This is consistent with a
T3.0/45-kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, as well as a blend of
recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates that range from 36-52 kt.

Additional near-term strengthening is possible while Joyce remains
in an environment of strong upper-level divergence and moderate
shear over warm SSTs. However, the storm is forecast to encounter
increasing shear and a progressively drier mid-level environment
during the next couple of days, which should induce a weakening
trend later this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC
intensity forecast peaks at 55 kt in 12 h, with gradual weakening
shown thereafter based on the less favorable environmental
conditions that are anticipated. Simulated satellite imagery from
the latest ECMWF run shows Joyce maintaining organized convection
through Monday, but the GFS suggests it could degenerate to a
remnant low even sooner. This forecast shows Joyce degenerating into
a post-tropical remnant low in 72 h and dissipating by day 5, but
future timing changes may be necessary.

The storm continues to move northwestward (305/11 kt) around the
southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected during
the next day or two, along with a slower forward speed as the
steering currents weaken. There is more spread in the track guidance
thereafter, with some model disagreement about whether and how
quickly the storm turns northward ahead of an upper trough over the
central Atlantic. For now, the NHC track forecast is shifted
slightly to the left and is a bit slower between 48-72 h, following
the latest HCCA and and TVCA trends.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.1N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.1N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 21.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 22.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 272034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 44.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 44.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 45.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 48.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.4N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 272035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOYCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 44.0W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 44.0 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a gradual turn toward the north early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through
early Saturday, followed by gradual weakening through early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center in the northern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.09.2024

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 17.7N 102.9W 990 50
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 19.0N 104.7W 1001 28
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 47.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 37.2N 47.8W 989 45
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 37.9N 44.5W 985 47
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 39.6N 40.8W 978 51
0000UTC 29.09.2024 36 41.3N 38.2W 976 52
1200UTC 29.09.2024 48 42.6N 36.8W 975 50
0000UTC 30.09.2024 60 43.6N 34.7W 978 49
1200UTC 30.09.2024 72 44.8N 31.1W 987 42
0000UTC 01.10.2024 84 46.8N 28.3W 991 44
1200UTC 01.10.2024 96 49.4N 27.8W 986 43
0000UTC 02.10.2024 108 51.6N 29.6W 986 36
1200UTC 02.10.2024 120 53.4N 30.3W 988 30
0000UTC 03.10.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 34.5N 83.0W 975 39
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 38.5N 86.7W 986 31
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 36.4N 87.4W 997 15
0000UTC 29.09.2024 36 37.4N 86.0W 1002 24
1200UTC 29.09.2024 48 36.5N 87.4W 1006 11
0000UTC 30.09.2024 60 36.5N 87.0W 1009 11
1200UTC 30.09.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 42.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 17.3N 42.5W 1009 29
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 18.1N 44.3W 1008 32
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 18.4N 46.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 29.09.2024 36 18.6N 48.0W 1008 27
1200UTC 29.09.2024 48 19.2N 49.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 30.09.2024 60 19.8N 50.9W 1008 23
1200UTC 30.09.2024 72 20.3N 51.1W 1009 21
0000UTC 01.10.2024 84 20.3N 51.7W 1008 19
1200UTC 01.10.2024 96 19.9N 51.9W 1007 20
0000UTC 02.10.2024 108 20.0N 52.7W 1005 21
1200UTC 02.10.2024 120 19.9N 53.6W 1005 19
0000UTC 03.10.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.7N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2024 96 9.7N 29.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 02.10.2024 108 9.8N 31.9W 1006 30
1200UTC 02.10.2024 120 9.7N 34.3W 1007 33
0000UTC 03.10.2024 132 9.7N 35.9W 1007 34
1200UTC 03.10.2024 144 9.8N 37.3W 1006 33
0000UTC 04.10.2024 156 10.2N 38.7W 1005 33
1200UTC 04.10.2024 168 10.3N 40.3W 1003 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 24.8N 50.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2024 156 24.8N 50.2W 1005 36
1200UTC 04.10.2024 168 26.4N 49.7W 1004 41

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271612

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 271438
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm in the basin this season.
First-light visible satellite imagery showed low-level clouds
moving westward, indicating the surface circulation has closed.
Deep, organized convection has been persistent for the past day or
so with decent outflow noted in the northern semicircle of the
circulation. This initial intensity is set to 35 kt, representing
the subjective satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Joyce has a short window for potential intensification. For the
next day or so, deep-layer vertical wind shear should be
moderate-to-low with warm sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track. Mid-level humidities around Joyce are sufficient,
but expected to dry in the coming days. Global models predict the
vertical wind shear should increase and the storm will likely
experience dry air intrusions. The official forecast shows Joyce
strengthening to a peak of 50 kt on Saturday, followed by gradual
weakening through next week. Deep convection should be stripped
away by Tuesday and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low
at that point before opening into a trough. However, the GFS
suggests this could happen even sooner.

The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A weak mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is expected to steer Joyce
generally northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn to the north-northwest and north with a slowing forward
speed. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this
evolution and the NHC track forecast follows the various simple and
corrected consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 271435
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 42.9W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 42.9 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday with a gradually
slower forward speed. On Monday, a gradual turn to the north is
forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected through Saturday, followed by
gradual weakening through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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