Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOYCE-24 Off-shore from 27 Sep 2024 15:00 UTC to 28 Sep 2024 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOYCE-24

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

28/09 20:43 WTNT21KNHC282040

28/09 20:43 WTNT31KNHC282040

28/09 20:43 WTNT41KNHC282041

28/09 16:12 WTNT82EGRR281612

28/09 14:43 WTNT41KNHC281441

28/09 14:41 WTNT31KNHC281438

28/09 14:39 WTNT21KNHC281437

28/09 08:37 WTNT41KNHC280835

28/09 08:36 WTNT31KNHC280834

28/09 08:35 WTNT21KNHC280833

28/09 02:35 WTNT41KNHC280233

28/09 02:34 WTNT21KNHC280231

28/09 02:34 WTNT31KNHC280232

27/09 20:37 WTNT41KNHC272035

27/09 20:37 WTNT21KNHC272034

27/09 20:37 WTNT31KNHC272035

27/09 16:12 WTNT82EGRR271612

27/09 14:40 WTNT41KNHC271438

27/09 14:37 WTNT21KNHC271435

27/09 14:37 WTNT31KNHC271435

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 282040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 46.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 282040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 46.7W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Joyce is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the
north-northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Joyce is forecast to gradually weaken, and could
degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 282041
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind
shear. Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just
north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the
low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon. Objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down,
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.

Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear
should induce gradual weakening over the next few days. Joyce is
expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a
post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday.
The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly
due to the lower initial intensity.

The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward
speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a
narrow subtropical ridge to the north. On Monday, Joyce should
turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the
ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic.
More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being
picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted
north and east. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north
and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of
the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 20.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.6N 87.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2024 0 36.6N 87.6W 997 14
0000UTC 29.09.2024 12 37.2N 86.5W 1004 23
1200UTC 29.09.2024 24 36.7N 86.7W 1007 11
0000UTC 30.09.2024 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N 40.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2024 0 39.7N 40.7W 967 67
0000UTC 29.09.2024 12 41.4N 38.2W 968 63
1200UTC 29.09.2024 24 42.8N 36.8W 968 53
0000UTC 30.09.2024 36 43.7N 34.2W 974 50
1200UTC 30.09.2024 48 44.7N 30.2W 987 44
0000UTC 01.10.2024 60 46.1N 26.7W 995 39
1200UTC 01.10.2024 72 48.0N 25.1W 996 39
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 50.3N 25.2W 993 38
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 52.0N 24.4W 995 32
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 53.9N 22.0W 996 32
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 45.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2024 0 19.5N 45.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 29.09.2024 12 20.6N 47.5W 1006 35
1200UTC 29.09.2024 24 21.4N 48.8W 1007 31
0000UTC 30.09.2024 36 21.9N 49.7W 1007 27
1200UTC 30.09.2024 48 22.6N 49.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.10.2024 60 23.3N 49.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 01.10.2024 72 24.2N 49.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 25.6N 49.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 27.0N 49.6W 1005 26
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 29.4N 48.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 33.5N 44.3W 1007 35
0000UTC 04.10.2024 132 35.7N 39.1W 1006 38
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 39.7N 29.1W 1006 37
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.7N 69.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 36.0N 69.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 35.7N 66.5W 1001 32
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 35.5N 63.5W 1001 32
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 35.7N 60.5W 1001 38
0000UTC 04.10.2024 132 35.8N 58.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 34.3N 58.6W 1006 34
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 33.8N 59.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 33.4N 60.1W 1008 18

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.1N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2024 84 16.1N 44.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 02.10.2024 96 17.6N 44.0W 1003 34
0000UTC 03.10.2024 108 18.8N 45.8W 1003 40
1200UTC 03.10.2024 120 20.8N 48.0W 1002 38
0000UTC 04.10.2024 132 21.3N 49.2W 1001 40
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 21.9N 50.7W 999 46
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 23.0N 51.6W 997 49
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 24.7N 52.7W 997 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 22.9N 93.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2024 144 23.1N 94.2W 1006 24
0000UTC 05.10.2024 156 22.8N 94.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 22.6N 94.4W 1005 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.4N 34.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2024 168 14.4N 34.9W 1010 33

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281611

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 281441
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce seems to be experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong
vertical wind shear. After maintaining a decent convective burst
overnight, southerly wind shear appears to be pulling the
thunderstorms to the north, partially exposing the low-level
circulation. A new burst of convection is now growing near the
center. Satellite-derived surface wind data measured a few wind
speeds greater than 40 kt in the northwest quadrant, and the
initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The storm continues to move at 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side
of a narrow and weakening subtropical ridge, and should continue
generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or
so. As a deep-layer trough over the northern Atlantic amplifies and
breaks the ridge, Joyce should slow and turn more poleward early
next week. The official forecast still shows the storm not
recurving to the north, as it is expected to be a shallow vortex at
that time, and instead drifts north-northwestward until the system
dissipates, similar to the previous prediction.

Atmospheric conditions are forecast to remain marginal around Joyce
in the coming days. The SHIPS model diagnostics show the deep-layer
vertical wind shear staying moderate-to-strong, likely forcing dry
air into Joyce's circulation. The latest intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and calls for little change in
intensity today, followed by steady weakening through early next
week. Joyce is still expected to become a remnant low by day 3,
however, models are now showing the system opening into a trough and
dissipating by day 4, and this is reflected in the official
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 281438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 46.0W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.0 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast
to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a
remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 281437
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed
little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level
center located on the southern edge of the convection due to
southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near
45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on
this the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous
motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow
subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a
deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the
next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to
the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by
an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in
generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is
some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models
forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned
trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for
a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the
trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from
the previous forecast.

Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global
models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In
addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and
subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength
during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce
will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not
sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or
5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system
approaching from the east.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 45.3W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 45.3 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast
to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a
remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280833
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Recent microwave imagery, including an 0022 UTC ASCAT-B pass,
indicates that Joyce's circulation is tilted with height, with a
mid-level center feature displaced about 40 nm north of the
low-level center. The scatterometer data also indicated that Joyce
still has maximum winds of 45 kt, which is also supported by the
latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes.

Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest (300/10 kt) to the south
of a narrow subtropical ridge. Deep-layer troughing is forecast to
amplify over the central Atlantic during the next few days, eroding
the ridge and causing Joyce to gradually turn toward the northwest
and north and slow down to a crawl by this time on Monday. Because
several of the regional hurricane models appear to keep Joyce too
strong in the coming days (more on that below) and show recurvature
with acceleration, the NHC track forecast more closely follows the
global models and is a blend of the previous forecast with the GFEX
consensus.

UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that Joyce is
being affected by moderate-to-strong southerly shear, which is
reflected by the satellite presentation. This shear is not
expected to abate during the next few days, and the storm will also
be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in
strength during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. Joyce is likely to lose its organized convection
and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low
should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5 and will likely be
absorbed by a larger weather system moving across the eastern
Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.9N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOYCE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 44.7W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 44.7 West. Joyce is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through early Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north
is forecast later on Sunday and Monday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected through Saturday. Weakening is forecast to
begin by Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by
late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Deep convection has increased and become more concentrated near the
center of Joyce this afternoon. A cold dense overcast has developed
and expanded over the low-level center of the tropical cyclone. As a
result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have risen, and the
initial intensity is brought up to 45 kt. This is consistent with a
T3.0/45-kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, as well as a blend of
recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates that range from 36-52 kt.

Additional near-term strengthening is possible while Joyce remains
in an environment of strong upper-level divergence and moderate
shear over warm SSTs. However, the storm is forecast to encounter
increasing shear and a progressively drier mid-level environment
during the next couple of days, which should induce a weakening
trend later this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC
intensity forecast peaks at 55 kt in 12 h, with gradual weakening
shown thereafter based on the less favorable environmental
conditions that are anticipated. Simulated satellite imagery from
the latest ECMWF run shows Joyce maintaining organized convection
through Monday, but the GFS suggests it could degenerate to a
remnant low even sooner. This forecast shows Joyce degenerating into
a post-tropical remnant low in 72 h and dissipating by day 5, but
future timing changes may be necessary.

The storm continues to move northwestward (305/11 kt) around the
southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected during
the next day or two, along with a slower forward speed as the
steering currents weaken. There is more spread in the track guidance
thereafter, with some model disagreement about whether and how
quickly the storm turns northward ahead of an upper trough over the
central Atlantic. For now, the NHC track forecast is shifted
slightly to the left and is a bit slower between 48-72 h, following
the latest HCCA and and TVCA trends.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.1N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.1N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 21.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 22.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 272034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 44.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 44.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 45.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 48.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.4N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 272035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOYCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 44.0W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 44.0 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a gradual turn toward the north early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through
early Saturday, followed by gradual weakening through early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center in the northern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.09.2024

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 17.7N 102.9W 990 50
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 19.0N 104.7W 1001 28
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 47.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 37.2N 47.8W 989 45
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 37.9N 44.5W 985 47
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 39.6N 40.8W 978 51
0000UTC 29.09.2024 36 41.3N 38.2W 976 52
1200UTC 29.09.2024 48 42.6N 36.8W 975 50
0000UTC 30.09.2024 60 43.6N 34.7W 978 49
1200UTC 30.09.2024 72 44.8N 31.1W 987 42
0000UTC 01.10.2024 84 46.8N 28.3W 991 44
1200UTC 01.10.2024 96 49.4N 27.8W 986 43
0000UTC 02.10.2024 108 51.6N 29.6W 986 36
1200UTC 02.10.2024 120 53.4N 30.3W 988 30
0000UTC 03.10.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 34.5N 83.0W 975 39
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 38.5N 86.7W 986 31
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 36.4N 87.4W 997 15
0000UTC 29.09.2024 36 37.4N 86.0W 1002 24
1200UTC 29.09.2024 48 36.5N 87.4W 1006 11
0000UTC 30.09.2024 60 36.5N 87.0W 1009 11
1200UTC 30.09.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 42.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2024 0 17.3N 42.5W 1009 29
0000UTC 28.09.2024 12 18.1N 44.3W 1008 32
1200UTC 28.09.2024 24 18.4N 46.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 29.09.2024 36 18.6N 48.0W 1008 27
1200UTC 29.09.2024 48 19.2N 49.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 30.09.2024 60 19.8N 50.9W 1008 23
1200UTC 30.09.2024 72 20.3N 51.1W 1009 21
0000UTC 01.10.2024 84 20.3N 51.7W 1008 19
1200UTC 01.10.2024 96 19.9N 51.9W 1007 20
0000UTC 02.10.2024 108 20.0N 52.7W 1005 21
1200UTC 02.10.2024 120 19.9N 53.6W 1005 19
0000UTC 03.10.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.7N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2024 96 9.7N 29.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 02.10.2024 108 9.8N 31.9W 1006 30
1200UTC 02.10.2024 120 9.7N 34.3W 1007 33
0000UTC 03.10.2024 132 9.7N 35.9W 1007 34
1200UTC 03.10.2024 144 9.8N 37.3W 1006 33
0000UTC 04.10.2024 156 10.2N 38.7W 1005 33
1200UTC 04.10.2024 168 10.3N 40.3W 1003 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 24.8N 50.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2024 156 24.8N 50.2W 1005 36
1200UTC 04.10.2024 168 26.4N 49.7W 1004 41

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271612

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 271438
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm in the basin this season.
First-light visible satellite imagery showed low-level clouds
moving westward, indicating the surface circulation has closed.
Deep, organized convection has been persistent for the past day or
so with decent outflow noted in the northern semicircle of the
circulation. This initial intensity is set to 35 kt, representing
the subjective satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Joyce has a short window for potential intensification. For the
next day or so, deep-layer vertical wind shear should be
moderate-to-low with warm sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track. Mid-level humidities around Joyce are sufficient,
but expected to dry in the coming days. Global models predict the
vertical wind shear should increase and the storm will likely
experience dry air intrusions. The official forecast shows Joyce
strengthening to a peak of 50 kt on Saturday, followed by gradual
weakening through next week. Deep convection should be stripped
away by Tuesday and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low
at that point before opening into a trough. However, the GFS
suggests this could happen even sooner.

The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A weak mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is expected to steer Joyce
generally northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn to the north-northwest and north with a slowing forward
speed. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this
evolution and the NHC track forecast follows the various simple and
corrected consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 271435
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 42.9W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 42.9 West. Joyce is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday with a gradually
slower forward speed. On Monday, a gradual turn to the north is
forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected through Saturday, followed by
gradual weakening through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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