Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for JEBI-24
in Japan, Russian Federation, United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 992 HPA
AT 46.5N 156.0E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 43 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 52.3N 165.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 53.3N 179.5W WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 44.9N 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 41 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 44.9N 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 50.9N 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 53.7N 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 46.4N 154.7E.
02OCT24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 41
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS JEBI IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
DECREASED TO WELL BELOW 24 C AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
INCREASED TO ABOVE 25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE TRANSITION SUPPORT
INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD-CORE MID-LATITUDE LOW. ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND A 89 GHZ 020300Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORT THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ASSESSMENT AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 19W
HAS BECOME POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRUCATION CENTER,
AND THE SYSTEMS VERTICAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
TILTED WITH HEIGHT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
020600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 24
FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (KRATHON) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 241002073500
2024100206 19W JEBI 024 02 045 41 SATL 060
T000 449N 1525E 055 R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 509N 1611E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 537N 1705E 035 R034 045 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 44.9N 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 41 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 44.9N 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 50.9N 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 53.7N 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 46.4N 154.7E.
02OCT24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 41
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS JEBI IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED
TO WELL BELOW 24 C AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
ABOVE 25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE TRANSITION SUPPORT INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD-CORE
MID-LATITUDE LOW. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 89 GHZ 020300Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ASSESSMENT AS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 19W HAS BECOME POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRUCATION CENTER, AND THE SYSTEMS VERTICAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED WITH HEIGHT.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 978
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 24 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1924092418 140N1500E 15
1924092500 147N1496E 15
1924092506 157N1492E 20
1924092512 160N1485E 20
1924092518 162N1477E 20
1924092600 162N1466E 25
1924092606 167N1469E 25
1924092612 172N1465E 30
1924092618 176N1460E 30
1924092700 178N1453E 35
1924092706 181N1450E 35
1924092712 186N1448E 40
1924092718 193N1444E 35
1924092800 200N1433E 30
1924092806 207N1429E 30
1924092812 214N1425E 30
1924092818 221N1419E 30
1924092900 227N1415E 35
1924092906 237N1411E 35
1924092912 247N1407E 35
1924092918 255N1406E 40
1924093000 266N1406E 40
1924093006 277N1408E 45
1924093012 293N1410E 50
1924093018 311N1413E 55
1924093018 311N1413E 55
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100106 348N1422E 70
1924100106 348N1422E 70
1924100112 369N1434E 70
1924100112 369N1434E 70
1924100112 369N1434E 70
1924100118 393N1456E 70
1924100118 393N1456E 70
1924100118 393N1456E 70
1924100200 421N1483E 60
1924100200 421N1483E 60
1924100206 449N1525E 55
1924100206 449N1525E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 990 HPA
AT 43.0N 150.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 49.1N 158.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 53.4N 166.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 985 HPA
AT 40.1N 146.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 32 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 46.1N 154.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 51.9N 162.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 985 HPA
AT 37.8N 143.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 42.9N 150.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 48.7N 158.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 241001133147
2024100112 19W JEBI 021 02 025 26 SATL RADR SYNP 040
T000 372N 1436E 050 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 421N 1488E 045 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 477N 1562E 025
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 37.2N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 42.1N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 47.7N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 38.4N 144.9E.
01OCT24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1924092418 140N1500E 15
1924092500 147N1496E 15
1924092506 157N1492E 20
1924092512 160N1485E 20
1924092518 162N1477E 20
1924092600 162N1466E 25
1924092606 167N1469E 25
1924092612 172N1465E 30
1924092618 176N1460E 30
1924092700 178N1453E 35
1924092706 181N1450E 35
1924092712 186N1448E 40
1924092718 193N1444E 35
1924092800 200N1433E 30
1924092806 207N1429E 30
1924092812 214N1425E 30
1924092818 221N1419E 30
1924092900 227N1415E 35
1924092906 237N1411E 35
1924092912 247N1407E 35
1924092918 255N1406E 40
1924093000 266N1406E 40
1924093006 277N1408E 45
1924093012 293N1410E 50
1924093018 308N1412E 55
1924093018 308N1412E 55
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100106 348N1423E 60
1924100106 348N1423E 60
1924100112 372N1436E 50
1924100112 372N1436E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 37.2N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 42.1N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 47.7N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 38.4N 144.9E.
01OCT24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
011200Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
20W (KRATHON) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 985 HPA
AT 35.7N 142.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 40.2N 146.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 45.6N 153.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 985 HPA
AT 34.8N 142.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 38.8N 145.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 44.2N 151.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 985 HPA
AT 33.7N 141.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 37.4N 143.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 42.3N 149.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 241001011121
2024100100 19W JEBI 019 02 010 19 SATL 040
T000 327N 1417E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 369N 1437E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 415N 1484E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 466N 1559E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 019
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 32.7N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 36.9N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 41.5N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 46.6N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 142.2E.
01OCT24. TYPHOON 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1924092418 140N1500E 15
1924092500 147N1496E 15
1924092506 157N1492E 20
1924092512 160N1485E 20
1924092518 162N1477E 20
1924092600 162N1466E 25
1924092606 167N1469E 25
1924092612 172N1465E 30
1924092618 176N1460E 30
1924092700 178N1453E 35
1924092706 181N1450E 35
1924092712 186N1448E 40
1924092718 193N1444E 35
1924092800 200N1433E 30
1924092806 207N1429E 30
1924092812 214N1425E 30
1924092818 221N1419E 30
1924092900 227N1415E 35
1924092906 237N1411E 35
1924092912 247N1407E 35
1924092918 255N1406E 40
1924093000 266N1406E 40
1924093006 277N1408E 45
1924093012 293N1410E 50
1924093018 308N1412E 55
1924093018 308N1412E 55
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100100 327N1417E 70
1924100100 327N1417E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 992 HPA
AT 31.8N 141.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 35.3N 141.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 39.7N 145.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 30.5N 140.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 34.5N 141.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 38.5N 144.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 50.0N 159.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 994 HPA
AT 29.9N 140.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 33.6N 141.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 37.2N 143.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 994 HPA
AT 29.2N 140.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.7N 141.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 36.1N 142.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 46.8N 154.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 998 HPA
AT 28.5N 140.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 31.8N 141.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 35.4N 142.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 998 HPA
AT 27.5N 141.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.8N 141.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 34.5N 141.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 44.1N 150.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 26.5N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301500UTC 29.8N 141.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 010300UTC 33.5N 141.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 020000UTC 41.4N 147.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 300300
WARNING 300300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 998 HPA
AT 26.5N 141.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 29.8N 141.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 33.5N 141.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 140.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 998 HPA
AT 25.8N 140.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.0N 141.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.7N 141.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 41.4N 147.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 25.8N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301200UTC 29.0N 141.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 010000UTC 32.7N 141.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 020000UTC 41.4N 147.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 998 HPA
AT 25.4N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 28.4N 141.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 32.0N 141.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 25.4N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300900UTC 28.4N 141.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 302100UTC 32.0N 141.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 011800UTC 39.0N 145.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 021800UTC 50.0N 160.6E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 140.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT60. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 24.9N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300600UTC 27.8N 140.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 301800UTC 31.2N 141.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011800UTC 39.0N 145.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 021800UTC 50.0N 160.6E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 998 HPA
AT 24.9N 140.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 27.8N 140.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 31.2N 141.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 39.0N 145.0E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 50.0N 160.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 24.8N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300300UTC 27.0N 140.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 301500UTC 30.3N 141.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 011200UTC 36.3N 143.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 021200UTC 47.0N 155.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 24.8N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 27.0N 140.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 30.3N 141.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 291523
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
123 AM ChST Mon Sep 30 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Saipan EMO has requested one additional advisory for Tropical Storm
Jebi.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...25.2N 140.8E

About 45 miles northwest of Iwo To
About 545 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 765 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 850 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 25.2 degrees North and Longitude
140.8 degrees East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the north with an
increase in forward speed through tonight, followed by a turn to the
northeast with a dramatic increase in forward speed through Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through Tuesday night, then it will lose strength as it
begins to transition into a mid-latitude low pressure system.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
75 miles to the northeast and 0 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Jebi.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 240929140619
2024092912 19W JEBI 013 02 340 08 SATL SYNP 040
T000 247N 1408E 035 R034 065 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 267N 1406E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 294N 1408E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 330N 1419E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 369N 1441E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 464N 1551E 045 R034 010 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.7N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 33.0N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 36.9N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 46.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 140.8E.
29SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 28 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
1924092418 140N1500E 15
1924092500 147N1496E 15
1924092506 157N1492E 20
1924092512 160N1485E 20
1924092518 162N1477E 20
1924092600 162N1466E 25
1924092606 167N1469E 25
1924092612 172N1465E 30
1924092618 176N1460E 30
1924092700 178N1453E 35
1924092706 181N1450E 35
1924092712 186N1448E 40
1924092718 193N1444E 35
1924092800 200N1433E 30
1924092806 207N1429E 30
1924092812 214N1425E 30
1924092818 221N1419E 30
1924092900 227N1415E 35
1924092906 239N1411E 35
1924092912 247N1408E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.7N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 33.0N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 36.9N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 46.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 140.8E.
29SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 28 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 20W (KRATHON) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 141.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 24.3N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300000UTC 26.5N 140.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 301200UTC 29.3N 141.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011200UTC 36.3N 143.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 021200UTC 47.0N 155.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 24.3N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 26.5N 140.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.3N 141.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 36.3N 143.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 47.0N 155.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 24.0N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 25.9N 140.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 28.2N 140.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 24.0N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 292100UTC 25.9N 140.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 300900UTC 28.2N 140.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 010600UTC 33.9N 141.9E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 020600UTC 43.1N 150.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 290904
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
704 PM ChST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JEBI UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...24.4N 141.0E

About 35 miles southwest of Iwo To
About 490 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 710 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 795 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 24.4 degrees North and Longitude 141.0 degrees
East, near Iwo To. Jebi continues moving north-northwest at 15 mph
and is expected to make a slight turn toward the north with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. Jebi is
forecast to intensify through Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
75 miles to the northeast and zero miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Jebi.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 23.8N 141.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291800UTC 25.4N 140.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 300600UTC 27.5N 140.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 010600UTC 33.9N 141.9E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 020600UTC 43.1N 150.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 23.8N 141.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 25.4N 140.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 27.5N 140.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.9N 141.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 43.1N 150.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 23.1N 141.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 25.3N 140.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 27.0N 140.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 23.1N 141.5E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291500UTC 25.3N 140.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 300300UTC 27.0N 140.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 010000UTC 32.8N 142.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 020000UTC 40.9N 148.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 030000UTC 51.9N 166.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 290306
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
106 PM ChST Sun Sep 29 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEBI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.9N 141.4E

About 130 miles south of Iwo To
About 395 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 435 miles northwest of Pagan
About 465 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 605 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 685 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...NW...325 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Jebi was located near Latitude 22.9 degrees North and Longitude
141.4 degrees East, northwest of the Marianas. Jebi continues
moving northwest at 6 mph. It is expected to make a turn toward
the north with a slight increase in forward speed through Monday,
passing near Iwo To.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through tonight possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM later this evening.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 21.9N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291200UTC 24.4N 140.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 300000UTC 26.3N 140.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 010000UTC 32.8N 142.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 020000UTC 40.9N 148.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 030000UTC 51.9N 166.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 21.9N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 24.4N 140.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 26.3N 140.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.8N 142.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 40.9N 148.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 51.9N 166.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 21.7N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290900UTC 24.4N 140.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 292100UTC 25.9N 140.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 301800UTC 31.1N 141.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 011800UTC 38.9N 146.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 021800UTC 49.8N 160.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 282106
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
706 AM ChST Sun Sep 29 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEBI MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.4N 141.7E

About 165 miles south of Iwo To
About 360 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 395 miles northwest of Pagan
About 425 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 490 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 565 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 650 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 920 miles north-northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...northwest...320 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Jebi was located near Latitude 22.4 degrees North and Longitude
141.7 degrees East. Jebi is moving northwest at 10 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through tonight, possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 142.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 21.7N 142.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290600UTC 24.1N 141.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 291800UTC 25.6N 140.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 301800UTC 31.1N 141.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 011800UTC 38.9N 146.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 021800UTC 49.8N 160.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 21.7N 142.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 24.1N 141.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 25.6N 140.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 31.1N 141.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 38.9N 146.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 49.8N 160.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 21.3N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290300UTC 23.5N 141.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 291500UTC 25.3N 140.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 301200UTC 29.3N 140.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 011200UTC 36.4N 143.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 021200UTC 46.3N 155.7E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 281540 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Depression Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
140 AM ChST Sun Sep 29 2024

CORRECTED HEADLINE.

...JEBI IS MOVING NORTH-NORTWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.7N 142.3E

About 220 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 300 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 335 miles northwest of Pagan
About 365 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 430 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 505 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 510 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 590 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Jebi was located near Latitude 21.7 degrees North and Longitude
142.3 degrees East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through Tuesday possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Bowsher


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 281508
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
108 AM ChST Sun Sep 29 2024

...JEBI DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.7N 142.3E

About 220 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 300 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 335 miles northwest of Pagan
About 365 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 430 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 505 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 510 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 590 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Jebi was located near Latitude 21.7 degrees North and Longitude
142.3 degrees East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through Tuesday possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Bowsher


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 20.8N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 20.8N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 22.9N 141.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 291200UTC 24.8N 140.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 301200UTC 29.3N 140.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 011200UTC 36.4N 143.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 021200UTC 46.3N 155.7E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 20.8N 142.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 22.9N 141.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 24.8N 140.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.3N 140.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 36.4N 143.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 46.3N 155.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 20.6N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 23.1N 141.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 290900UTC 24.9N 140.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 300600UTC 27.8N 140.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 010600UTC 34.7N 142.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 020600UTC 44.1N 152.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 280905
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
705 PM ChST Sat Sep 28 2024

...JEBI DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.1N 142.5E

About 260 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 265 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 295 miles northwest of Pagan
About 325 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 385 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 465 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 470 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 545 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...330 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Jebi was located near Latitude 21.1 degrees North and Longitude
142.5 degrees East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Sunday, moving away from
the far northern Mariana Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph. Although, Jebi is
forecast to intensify through Sunday, possibly becoming a tropical
storm again.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM early Sunday morning.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 20.5N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 20.5N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 22.7N 141.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 290600UTC 24.4N 140.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300600UTC 27.8N 140.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 010600UTC 34.7N 142.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 020600UTC 44.1N 152.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 20.5N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 22.7N 141.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 24.4N 140.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 27.8N 140.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 34.7N 142.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 44.1N 152.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 20.0N 143.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 22.3N 141.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 290300UTC 24.2N 140.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 300000UTC 26.4N 139.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 010000UTC 32.0N 141.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 020000UTC 40.0N 147.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 030000UTC 50.5N 165.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 280306
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
106 PM ChST Sat Sep 28 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.4N 142.8E

About 220 miles west-northwest of Agrihan
About 250 miles northwest of Pagan
About 275 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 315 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 335 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 410 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 415 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 460 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 495 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 20.4 degrees North and Longitude
142.8 degrees East. Jebi is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight decrease in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through Sunday, possibly becoming a strong tropical storm.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
75 miles to the east and zero miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 143.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 19.5N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 21.8N 142.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 290000UTC 23.9N 140.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300000UTC 26.4N 139.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 010000UTC 32.0N 141.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 020000UTC 40.0N 147.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 030000UTC 50.5N 165.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 19.5N 143.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 21.8N 142.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 23.9N 140.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 26.4N 139.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.0N 141.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 40.0N 147.5E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 50.5N 165.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 19.1N 144.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 23.4N 140.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 291800UTC 25.6N 139.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 301800UTC 30.4N 140.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 011800UTC 38.1N 144.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 021800UTC 47.7N 157.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 272140
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
740 AM ChST Sat Sep 28 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
All tropical storm warnings have been cancelled.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The tropical storm warnings for Agrihan, Pagan, and Alamagan of the
far northern Mariana Islands have been cancelled. Tropical storm
conditions are no longer expected.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.8N 144.0E

About 130 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 165 miles northwest of Pagan
About 195 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 260 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 340 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 350 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 385 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 395 miles north of Rota
About 440 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 19.8 degrees North and Longitude 144.0 degrees
East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed
through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph. Jebi is forecast to
intensify through Sunday, possibly becoming a strong tropical storm.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
75 miles to the east and zero miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 144.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 271914 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
514 AM ChST Sat Sep 28 2024

Corrected time in Summary and Discussion

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm
force winds of at least 39 mph are expected through this morning.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.2N 144.7E

About 70 miles west-northwest of Agrihan
About 100 miles northwest of Pagan
About 130 miles north-northwest of Alamagan
About 205 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 290 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 295 miles north of Tinian
About 350 miles north of Rota
About 395 miles north of Guam
About 440 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 19.2 degrees North and Longitude 144.7 degrees
East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 3 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward
speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Jebi is forecast to
weaken through tonight, then begin to strengthen again late tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles to the east and 0 miles west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100
AM ChST.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 271853
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
453 AM ChST Sat Sep 28 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm
force winds of at least 39 mph are expected through this morning.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.2N 144.7E

About 70 miles west-northwest of Agrihan
About 100 miles northwest of Pagan
About 130 miles north-northwest of Alamagan
About 205 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 290 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 295 miles north of Tinian
About 350 miles north of Rota
About 395 miles north of Guam
About 440 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 19.2 degrees North and Longitude 144.7 degrees
East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 3 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward
speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Jebi is forecast to
weaken through tonight, then begin to strengthen again late tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles to the east and 0 miles west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100
AM ChST.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 18.5N 144.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 23.0N 141.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 291800UTC 25.6N 139.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 301800UTC 30.4N 140.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 011800UTC 38.1N 144.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 021800UTC 47.7N 157.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 18.5N 144.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 23.0N 141.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 25.6N 139.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.4N 140.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 38.1N 144.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 47.7N 157.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2417 JEBI (2417)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 18.2N 144.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 22.6N 141.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 291200UTC 25.1N 139.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 301200UTC 29.3N 140.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 011200UTC 36.3N 144.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 021200UTC 44.0N 154.3E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 271511
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
111 AM ChST Sat Sep 28 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI NEARLY STATIONARY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm
force winds of at least 39 mph are expected through this morning.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.7N 144.6E

About 70 miles west of Agrihan
About 85 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 110 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 175 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 260 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 265 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 315 miles north of Rota
About 360 miles north of Guam
About 470 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 770 miles northeast of Yap
About 915 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 18.7 degrees North and Longitude 144.6 degrees
East. Jebi is moving north-northwest at 3 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward
speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Jebi is forecast
to weaken through this afternoon, then begin to stregthen again
tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles to the southeast and up to 0 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 271333
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
1133 PM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm
force winds of at least 39 mph are expected through tonight.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.5N 144.4E

About 85 miles west of Agrihan
About 95 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 110 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 170 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 250 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 255 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 305 miles north of Rota
About 345 miles north of Guam
About 475 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 750 miles northeast of Yap
About 910 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 18.5 degrees North and Longitude 144.4 degrees
East. Jebi is moving northwest at 8 mph. It is expected to maintain
this general course with a slight increase in forward speed through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Jebi is forecast to
weaken through Saturday, then begin to strengthen Saturday night into
Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles to the east and up to 0 miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2417 JEBI (2417) 1000 HPA
AT 18.2N 144.7E MARIANAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 22.2N 141.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 25.1N 139.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.3N 140.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 36.3N 144.1E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 44.0N 154.3E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 271008
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jebi (19W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
808 PM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JEBI MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm
force winds of at least 39 mph are expected through at least this
evening.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.6N 144.4E

About 85 miles west of Agrihan
About 95 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 115 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 175 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 255 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 260 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 310 miles north of Rota
About 355 miles north of Guam
About 470 miles south-southeast of Iwo To Island
About 755 miles northeast of Yap
About 915 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...NW...315 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was
located near Latitude 18.6 degrees North and Longitude
144.4 degrees East. Jebi is moving northwest at 8 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with a slight increase
in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Jebi is forecast to
weaken through Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles to the east.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM early Saturday morning.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 270653
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 19W Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
453 PM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM 19W CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm
force winds of at least 39 mph are expected through at least
this evening.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.2N 144.9E

About 55 miles west of Pagan
About 65 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 75 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 135 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 220 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 225 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 280 miles north of Rota
About 325 miles north of Guam
About 755 miles northeast of Yap
About 875 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...WNW...290 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 19W was
located near Latitude 18.2 degrees North and Longitude 144.9 degrees
East. 19W is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the northwest with little change in forward
speed through Saturday, gradually moving away from the northern
Mariana Islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. 19W is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles on the eastern side of the storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM this evening followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 PM.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 270332
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 19W Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
132 PM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM 19W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. Tropical storm force
winds of at least 39 mph are expected through at least this evening.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.4N 144.9E

About 55 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 60 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 80 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 150 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 240 miles north of Tinian
About 295 miles north of Rota
About 340 miles north of Guam
About 765 miles northeast of Yap
About 885 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...WNW...290 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 19W was
located near Latitude 18.4 degrees North and Longitude
144.9 degrees East. 19W is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with little
change in forward speed through Saturday, gradually moving away from
the northern Marianas.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. 19W is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles in the eastern sector.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 270122
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 19W Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
1122 AM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...19W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM 19W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR PAGAN...


CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, and
Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. A tropical storm
warning means that tropical storm force winds of at least 39 mph
are expected within 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.1N 145.2E

About 35 miles west of Pagan
About 55 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 55 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 125 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 210 miles north of Saipan
About 215 miles north of Tinian
About 270 miles north of Rota
About 320 miles north of Guam
About 760 miles northeast of Yap
About 860 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...330 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 19W
was located near Latitude 18.3 degrees North and Longitude
145.6 degrees East. 19W is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a slight
increase in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds has increased to 40 mph. 19W will continue
to slowly intensify through Saturday as it moves north-northwest,
away from the Marianas.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM followed by an intermediate advisory at
500 PM.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 262106
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 19W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
706 AM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...19W IS CURRENTLY PASSING NEAR PAGAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, and
Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, and
Alamagan of the far northern Mariana Islands. A tropical storm warning
means that tropical storm force winds of at least 39 mph are expected
within 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.1N 145.8E

About 5 miles southeast of Pagan
About 35 miles north of Alamagan
About 45 miles south of Agrihan
About 120 miles north of Anatahan
About 205 miles north of Saipan
About 215 miles north of Tinian
About 275 miles north of Rota
About 325 miles north of Guam
About 785 miles northeast of Yap
About 840 miles north-northwest of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...330 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 19W
was located near Latitude 18.1 degrees North and Longitude
145.8 degrees East. 19W is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a slight
increase in forward speed through Saturday. This current track takes
19W very close to Pagan over the few hours, before moving away
to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. 19W is forecast to intensify
through tonight possibly becoming a tropical storm. 19W will continue
to slowly intensify as it moves northwest and away from the Marianas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 11 AM, followed by the next scheduled advisory at 200 PM
this afternoon.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 261806
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 19W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP192024
406 AM ChST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W FORMS EAST OF ALAMAGAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.5N 146.6E

About 50 miles east of Alamagan
About 70 miles southeast of Pagan
About 100 miles northeast of Anatahan
About 105 miles southeast of Agrihan
About 175 miles north-northeast of Saipan
About 185 miles north-northeast of Tinian
About 245 miles north-northeast of Rota
About 300 miles north-northeast of Guam
About 775 miles north-northwest of Chuuk
About 795 miles northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...360 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 19W
was located near Latitude 17.5 degrees North and Longitude
146.6 degrees East. 19W is moving north at 7 mph. It is expected
to make a turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward
speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. 19W is forecast to intensify
through tonight possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Hong


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 240926140828
2024092612 19W NINETEEN 001 02 360 06 SATL 060
T000 172N 1468E 030
T012 183N 1459E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 196N 1442E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 212N 1425E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 228N 1411E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 259N 1390E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 315N 1403E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 383N 1460E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.6N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.9N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.5N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 38.3N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 146.6E.
26SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1924092418 140N1500E 15
1924092500 147N1496E 15
1924092506 157N1492E 20
1924092512 160N1485E 20
1924092518 162N1477E 20
1924092600 162N1466E 25
1924092606 166N1468E 25
1924092612 172N1468E 30
NNNN