Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PULASAN-24
in Japan, China, Republic of Korea

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 32.8N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 34.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 35.4N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 37.1N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 121.9E.
20SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
421 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z,
210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 31.8N 120.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 32.9N 120.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 34.3N 123.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 37.2N 137.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 31.1N 120.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 32.7N 120.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 33.5N 121.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 35.7N 131.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240919132104
2024091912 15W PULASAN 012 02 315 13 SATL SYNP 060
T000 305N 1220E 030
T012 318N 1203E 025
T024 328N 1202E 025
T036 334N 1220E 030
T048 342N 1256E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 362N 1355E 030
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.8N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 32.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.4N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 36.2N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 121.6E.
19SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
49 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
191200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SOULIK) FINAL WARNING
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091812 260N1287E 45
1524091818 272N1272E 45
1524091900 282N1250E 40
1524091906 296N1231E 35
1524091912 305N1220E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.8N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 32.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.4N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 36.2N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 121.6E.
19SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
49 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
191200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SOULIK) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 30.3N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 31.7N 119.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 32.5N 119.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 33.8N 125.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 29.8N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 192100UTC 31.4N 120.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 200900UTC 32.4N 119.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240919073632
2024091906 15W PULASAN 011 02 310 22 SATL 080
T000 296N 1231E 035 R034 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 000 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 310N 1207E 030
T024 322N 1195E 025
T036 330N 1205E 030
T048 334N 1229E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 355N 1331E 030
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 011 RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 011 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 29.6N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 31.0N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 32.2N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 33.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 33.4N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 35.5N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 122.5E.
19SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127
NM SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091812 260N1287E 45
1524091818 272N1272E 45
1524091900 282N1250E 40
1524091906 296N1231E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 29.3N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 191800UTC 30.9N 121.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 200600UTC 32.1N 119.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 996 HPA
AT 29.3N 124.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 30.9N 121.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 32.1N 119.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 29.0N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 191500UTC 30.8N 121.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 200300UTC 32.1N 119.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 125.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.8N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 32.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.1N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.9N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 36.2N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 125.3E.
19SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240919014728
2024091900 15W PULASAN 010 02 320 23 SATL 060
T000 287N 1261E 040 R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 308N 1231E 035 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 322N 1214E 030
T036 331N 1216E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 339N 1237E 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 362N 1340E 035 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.8N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 32.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.1N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 33.9N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 36.2N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 125.3E.
19SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091812 260N1287E 45
1524091818 270N1278E 45
1524091900 287N1261E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 28.3N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 191200UTC 30.2N 121.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 200000UTC 31.7N 119.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 28.3N 125.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 30.2N 121.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 31.7N 119.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 27.6N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 190900UTC 29.6N 122.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 192100UTC 31.1N 119.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240918203003
2024091818 15W PULASAN 009 02 320 13 SATL 060
T000 270N 1278E 045 R034 250 NE QD 170 SE QD 000 SW QD 230 NW QD
T012 290N 1241E 045 R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 303N 1219E 035 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 314N 1208E 025
T048 319N 1215E 030
T072 326N 1256E 040 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 349N 1339E 035 R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 31.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.9N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 34.9N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.9E.
18SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30
NM NORTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091806 243N1300E 55
1524091812 260N1287E 45
1524091818 270N1278E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 31.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.9N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 34.9N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.9E.
18SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30
NM NORTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 127.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE
HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 26.8N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 190600UTC 29.2N 122.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 23KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 191800UTC 30.7N 120.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 26.8N 127.1E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 29.2N 122.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 30.7N 120.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 26.7N 127.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 23KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 190300UTC 28.7N 123.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 191500UTC 30.3N 120.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 201200UTC 31.3N 119.7E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240918132434
2024091812 15W PULASAN 008 02 320 21 SATL 040
T000 257N 1285E 050 R050 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 255 NE QD 185 SE QD 000 SW QD 230 NW QD
T012 276N 1247E 045 R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 293N 1216E 040 R034 140 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 304N 1198E 030
T048 315N 1192E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 25.7N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 29.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 30.4N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 31.5N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 127.5E.
18SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091806 241N1300E 55
1524091806 241N1300E 55
1524091812 257N1285E 50
1524091812 257N1285E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 25.8N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 190000UTC 28.2N 124.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 24KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 191200UTC 29.8N 121.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 201200UTC 31.3N 119.7E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 992 HPA
AT 25.8N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 28.2N 124.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 29.8N 121.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.3N 119.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 24.8N 130.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 182100UTC 27.5N 125.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 26KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 190900UTC 29.1N 122.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 200600UTC 31.4N 119.1E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240918074555
2024091806 15W PULASAN 007 02 305 19 SATL SYNP 040
T000 241N 1300E 055 R050 205 NE QD 200 SE QD 000 SW QD 200 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 300 SE QD 000 SW QD 300 NW QD
T012 264N 1260E 050 R050 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 284N 1224E 045 R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 010 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 299N 1197E 035 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 308N 1184E 025
T072 322N 1176E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 30.8N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.2N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 129.0E.
18SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091800 231N1317E 55
1524091806 241N1300E 55
1524091806 241N1300E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 24.1N, 130.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 24.1N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 181800UTC 27.0N 125.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 27KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 190600UTC 28.7N 122.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 200600UTC 31.4N 119.1E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 992 HPA
AT 24.1N 130.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 27.0N 125.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 28.7N 122.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 31.4N 119.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 180352
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
152 PM ChST Wed Sep 18 2024

...PULASAN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...24.0N 130.9E

About 255 miles southeast of Okinawa
About 1105 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 1140 miles northwest of Saipan
About 1160 miles northwest of Guam
About 1175 miles north of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...65 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 21 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan
was located near Latitude 24.0 degrees North and Longitude 130.9
degrees East. Pulasan is moving northwest at 21 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65 mph. Pulasan is
forecast to weaken through Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
345 miles to the southeast and up to 275 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Pulasan.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 23.5N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 181500UTC 26.6N 126.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 190300UTC 28.3N 123.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 200000UTC 30.8N 119.1E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.7N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 29.8N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.9N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 130.9E.
18SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240918014633
2024091800 15W PULASAN 006 01 310 18 SATL 060
T000 234N 1319E 055 R050 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 000 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 256N 1280E 050 R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 175 SE QD 000 SW QD 175 NW QD
T024 276N 1241E 050 R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 287N 1214E 045 R034 180 NE QD 075 SE QD 015 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 298N 1194E 035 R034 090 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 309N 1175E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.7N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 29.8N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.9N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 130.9E.
18SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091718 223N1334E 55
1524091800 234N1319E 55
1524091800 234N1319E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 23.0N, 132.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 23.0N 132.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 181200UTC 26.1N 127.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 190000UTC 28.2N 123.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 200000UTC 30.8N 119.1E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 992 HPA
AT 23.0N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 26.1N 127.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 28.2N 123.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 30.8N 119.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 172206 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Typhoon Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
806 AM ChST Wed Sep 18 2024

Corrected Next Advisory section

...PULASAN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.8N 132.5E

About 385 miles southeast of Okinawa
About 990 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 1010 miles northwest of Saipan
About 1030 miles northwest of Guam
About 1075 miles north of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 16 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Pulasan was
located near Latitude 22.8 degrees North and Longitude 132.5 degrees
East. Pulasan is moving northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward
speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph. Pulasan is
forecast to weaken through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
155 miles to the northwest and up to 0 miles elsewhere. Tropical
storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 355 miles
to the southeast and up to 290 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM ChST Wednesday afternoon.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 172203
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
803 AM ChST Wed Sep 18 2024

...PULASAN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.8N 132.5E

About 385 miles southeast of Okinawa
About 990 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 1010 miles northwest of Saipan
About 1030 miles northwest of Guam
About 1075 miles north of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 16 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Pulasan was
located near Latitude 22.8 degrees North and Longitude 132.5 degrees
East. Pulasan is moving northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward
speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph. Pulasan is
forecast to weaken through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
155 miles to the northwest and up to 0 miles elsewhere. Tropical
storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 355 miles
to the southeast and up to 290 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Thursday morning.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 22.8N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180900UTC 25.5N 128.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 182100UTC 27.7N 124.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 191800UTC 30.0N 119.3E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 133.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240917200414
2024091718 15W PULASAN 005 01 315 14 SATL 060
T000 223N 1334E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 135 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 000 SW QD 140 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 310 SE QD 000 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 244N 1296E 060 R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 000 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 265N 1257E 055 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 185 SE QD 000 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 280N 1225E 050 R034 160 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 291N 1201E 035 R034 120 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 307N 1174E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 005
1. TYPHOON 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 133.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 133.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.4N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.0N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.1N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.7N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 132.5E.
17SEP24. TYPHOON 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 40
1524091700 185N1387E 45
1524091706 201N1364E 45
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091712 213N1345E 60
1524091718 223N1334E 65
1524091718 223N1334E 65
1524091718 223N1334E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 22.8N 133.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180600UTC 25.1N 129.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 181800UTC 27.2N 125.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 191800UTC 30.0N 119.3E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 992 HPA
AT 22.8N 133.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.1N 129.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 27.2N 125.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 30.0N 119.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 22.3N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 26KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180300UTC 24.7N 129.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 23KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 181500UTC 26.5N 126.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 191200UTC 29.2N 121.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 201200UTC 30.2N 117.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 171544
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
144 AM ChST Wed Sep 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM PULASAN MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.7N 133.7E

About 490 miles southeast of Okinawa
About 890 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 910 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 925 miles northwest of Guam
About 990 miles north of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...70 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 21 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan
was located near Latitude 21.7 degrees North and Longitude
133.7 degrees East. Pulasan is moving west-northwest at 21 mph.
It is expected to maintain this general course with a slight
increase in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph. However, latest
analyses now indicate a weakening trend through Thursday as
Pulasan tracks towards Taiwan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
355 miles to the southeast and up to 275 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM later this morning.

$$

IC


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240917131349
2024091712 15W PULASAN 004 01 295 18 SATL RADR SYNP 035
T000 212N 1347E 060 R050 195 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 150 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 310 SE QD 000 SW QD 240 NW QD
T012 234N 1306E 055 R050 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 260 SE QD 020 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 254N 1268E 050 R050 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 030 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 269N 1236E 040 R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 283N 1206E 035 R034 180 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 295N 1176E 025
T096 311N 1142E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.4N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.5N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.1N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 133.7E.
17SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 35
1524091700 185N1387E 35
1524091706 204N1364E 45
1524091712 212N1347E 60
1524091712 212N1347E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 21.6N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 30KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180000UTC 24.3N 130.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 181200UTC 25.9N 127.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 191200UTC 29.2N 121.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 201200UTC 30.2N 117.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 992 HPA
AT 21.6N 134.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.3N 130.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.9N 127.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 29.2N 121.0E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 30.2N 117.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 21.5N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 30KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 172100UTC 23.5N 131.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180900UTC 25.3N 128.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 27.9N 122.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 200600UTC 30.4N 118.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 170914
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
714 PM ChST Tue Sep 17 2024

...TROPICAL STORM PULASAN MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.4N 136.4E

About 455 miles west-southwest of Iwo To Island
About 685 miles west-northwest of Agrihan
About 705 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 720 miles west-northwest of Alamagan
About 745 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 790 miles northwest of Tinian
About 795 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 805 miles northwest of Rota
About 810 miles northwest of Guam
About 820 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 950 miles north of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 33 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
---------------------- At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of
Tropical Storm Pulasan was located near Latitude 20.4 degrees
North and Longitude 136.4 degrees East. Pulasan is moving
northwest at 33 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward
the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph. Pulasan is
forecast to maintain this intensity through Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
310 miles to the northeast, up to 300 miles to the southeast, and
zero miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Wednesday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.0N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.1N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.7N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.8N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 135.4E.
17SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 29 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240917080056
2024091706 15W PULASAN 003 01 310 29 SATL 060
T000 204N 1364E 045 R034 270 NE QD 260 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 230N 1323E 045 R034 270 NE QD 260 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 252N 1283E 040 R034 270 NE QD 170 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 268N 1247E 040 R034 260 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 281N 1217E 035 R034 200 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 297N 1174E 030
T096 308N 1145E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.0N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.1N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.7N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.8N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 135.4E.
17SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 29 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 35
1524091700 185N1387E 35
1524091706 204N1364E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 20.8N, 137.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 20.8N 137.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171800UTC 23.4N 132.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 26KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180600UTC 25.1N 128.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190600UTC 27.9N 122.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 200600UTC 30.4N 118.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 992 HPA
AT 20.8N 137.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 23 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.4N 132.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.1N 128.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 27.9N 122.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 30.4N 118.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 170359
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
159 PM ChST Tue Sep 17 2024

...TROPICAL STORM PULASAN MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.3N 137.8E

About 440 miles south-southwest of Iwo To Island
About 515 miles west of Agrihan
About 525 miles west of Pagan
About 540 miles west-northwest of Alamagan
About 555 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 595 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 595 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 605 miles northwest of Rota
About 610 miles northwest of Guam
About 675 miles north of Yap
About 855 miles north-northeast of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 22 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan
was located near Latitude 19.3 degrees North and Longitude
137.8 degrees East. Pulasan is moving west-northwest at 22 mph.
It is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Pulasan is forecast to
intensify through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
265 miles to the northeast, up to 230 miles to the southeast and
zero miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 19.7N 138.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171500UTC 22.8N 133.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 28KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180300UTC 25.2N 129.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190000UTC 27.6N 123.4E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 200000UTC 29.8N 117.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 18.4N, 139.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 28.5N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 29.4N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 137.8E.
17SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240917012321
2024091700 15W PULASAN 002 02 300 19 SATL 060
T000 185N 1387E 035 R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 216N 1350E 040 R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 239N 1310E 040 R034 260 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 256N 1274E 035 R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 270N 1241E 035 R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 285N 1202E 030
T096 294N 1176E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 28.5N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 29.4N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 137.8E.
17SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 35
1524091700 185N1387E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.4N 139.8E POOR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171200UTC 21.9N 135.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 28KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180000UTC 24.6N 130.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 27.6N 123.4E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 200000UTC 29.8N 117.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 996 HPA
AT 18.4N 139.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 21.9N 135.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.6N 130.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 27.6N 123.4E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 29.8N 117.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 17.9N 140.6E POOR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 21.1N 136.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 27KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 172100UTC 23.4N 132.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 26.7N 124.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 191800UTC 28.6N 119.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 162131
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pulasan (15W) Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP152024
731 AM ChST Tue Sep 17 2024

...TROPICAL STORM PULASAN NEWLY FORMED WEST OF AGRIHAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Invest 97W is now Tropical Storm Pulasan (15W)

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.4N 139.7E

About 390 miles west of Agrihan
About 400 miles west of Pagan
About 405 miles west of Alamagan
About 415 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 450 miles south-southwest of Iwo To Island
About 455 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 460 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 470 miles northwest of Rota
About 480 miles northwest of Guam
About 625 miles north of Yap
About 840 miles north-northeast of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...335 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan
was located near Latitude 18.4 degrees North and Longitude 139.7
degrees East. Pulasan is moving north-northwest at 12 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a dramatic
increase in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph. Pulasan is forecast to
intensify through tonight as it continues to move away from
the Marianas.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
265 miles to the southeast, up to 230 miles northeast, and zero
miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 240916200145
2024091618 15W PULASAN 001 02 335 10 SATL 020
T000 176N 1405E 035 R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 206N 1373E 040 R034 230 NE QD 290 SE QD 010 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 231N 1332E 040 R034 270 NE QD 260 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 250N 1295E 035 R034 230 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 265N 1260E 035 R034 210 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 285N 1207E 030
T096 297N 1185E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.6N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.1N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.0N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.5N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 139.7E.
16SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1524091418 122N1446E 15
1524091500 125N1443E 15
1524091506 129N1441E 20
1524091512 134N1437E 20
1524091518 140N1432E 30
1524091600 146N1427E 35
1524091606 162N1420E 35
1524091612 167N1409E 35
1524091618 176N1405E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 17.4N 141.0E POOR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170600UTC 20.4N 137.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 24KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171800UTC 22.9N 133.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181800UTC 26.7N 124.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 191800UTC 28.6N 119.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 17.4N 141.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 20.4N 137.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 22.9N 133.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 26.7N 124.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 28.6N 119.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 16.3N 141.8E POOR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 170300UTC 20.0N 138.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 26KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171500UTC 22.5N 134.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181200UTC 26.6N 126.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 23KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 191200UTC 28.2N 121.1E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 15.6N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 15.6N 142.0E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 170000UTC 19.5N 139.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 24KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171200UTC 22.0N 135.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181200UTC 26.6N 126.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 23KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 191200UTC 28.2N 121.1E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 1000 HPA
AT 15.6N 142.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 19.5N 139.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.0N 135.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 26.6N 126.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 28.2N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 15.3N 142.5E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 162100UTC 18.8N 139.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 23KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 170900UTC 21.2N 136.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 180600UTC 25.5N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 190600UTC 27.9N 122.5E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 15.5N 143.1E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 161800UTC 18.1N 139.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 170600UTC 20.6N 136.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180600UTC 25.5N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 190600UTC 27.9N 122.5E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 1000 HPA
AT 15.5N 143.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 18.1N 139.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 20.6N 136.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.5N 129.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 27.9N 122.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 15.5N 143.9E POOR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 161500UTC 18.0N 141.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 170300UTC 20.5N 138.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180000UTC 24.9N 130.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 190000UTC 27.7N 122.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 200000UTC 29.4N 117.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 144.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS
CURRENT INFIRM STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 1000 HPA
AT 15.2N 144.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.4N 141.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 19.9N 139.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.9N 130.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 27.7N 122.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 29.4N 117.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 15.2N 144.0E POOR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 375NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 161200UTC 17.4N 141.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 170000UTC 19.9N 139.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180000UTC 24.9N 130.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 190000UTC 27.7N 122.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 200000UTC 29.4N 117.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 14.8N 143.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 375NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160900UTC 17.1N 142.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 162100UTC 19.3N 139.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171800UTC 23.5N 133.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 181800UTC 27.3N 124.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 191800UTC 28.6N 119.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 201800UTC 28.6N 117.6E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 14.3N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 14.3N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 375NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160600UTC 16.1N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 161800UTC 18.5N 140.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171800UTC 23.5N 133.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 181800UTC 27.3N 124.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 191800UTC 28.6N 119.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 201800UTC 28.6N 117.6E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) 998 HPA
AT 14.3N 145.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 16.1N 142.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 18.5N 140.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.5N 133.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 27.3N 124.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 28.6N 119.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 28.6N 117.6E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 13.5N 144.0E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160300UTC 15.8N 144.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 161500UTC 18.3N 141.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171200UTC 22.8N 136.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 181200UTC 26.6N 127.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 191200UTC 28.0N 120.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 201200UTC 28.3N 117.6E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2414 PULASAN (2414)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 11.9N, 144.0E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(PULASAN) STATUS. TS PULASAN IS LOCATED AT 13.5N, 143.9E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2414 PULASAN (2414) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 13.5N 143.9E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160000UTC 14.9N 144.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 161200UTC 17.6N 142.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 22.8N 136.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 181200UTC 26.6N 127.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 22KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 191200UTC 28.0N 120.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 201200UTC 28.3N 117.6E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2414 PULASAN (2414) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 13.5N 143.9E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 14.9N 144.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.6N 142.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.8N 136.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 26.6N 127.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 28.0N 120.5E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 28.3N 117.6E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=