Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YAGI-24
in China, Viet Nam, Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 21N 105E
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 20.7N 104.9E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 081500UTC 21.0N 104.4E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 090300UTC 21.2N 103.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 080146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 080000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 20.4N, 105.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 20.4N 105.0E GOOD
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 081200UTC 21.0N 104.5E 40NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 090000UTC 21.2N 103.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
996 HPA
AT 20.4N 105.0E VIETNAM MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 21.0N 104.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 21.2N 103.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 985 HPA
AT 20.7N 105.3E VIETNAM MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 21.2N 104.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 21.3N 103.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 20.7N 105.3E GOOD
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 21.2N 104.6E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 082100UTC 21.3N 103.6E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 20.8N, 105.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 20.8N 105.7E GOOD
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 21.1N 104.8E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 081800UTC 21.2N 103.8E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980
HPA
AT 20.8N 105.7E VIETNAM MOVING SOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 21.1N 104.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 21.2N 103.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 071646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 071500 UTC, TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ZERO FIVE
POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (103.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 21.0N 105.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 20.9N 105.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081500UTC 21.2N 104.1E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 965 HPA
AT 21.0N 105.9E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 20.9N 105.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 21.2N 104.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 21.0N, 106.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 21.0N 106.0E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 21.1N 105.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081200UTC 21.1N 104.4E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 960 HPA
AT 21.0N 106.0E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 21.1N 105.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 21.1N 104.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 935 HPA
AT 21.0N 106.6E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 21.2N 105.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 21.3N 104.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 21.0N 106.6E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 21.2N 105.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 080900UTC 21.3N 104.7E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 070746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 070600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE
ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 107.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM SOON.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 21.0N 107.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 21.1N 105.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 080600UTC 21.4N 104.9E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 935 HPA
AT 21.0N 107.0E VIETNAM MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.1N 105.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 21.4N 104.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 070446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 070300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO
SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 935 HPA
AT 20.6N 107.6E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 21.2N 105.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 21.4N 104.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 20.6N 107.6E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 21.2N 105.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 080300UTC 21.4N 104.7E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 20.5N, 108.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT09. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 070146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 070000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 20.5N 108.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 21.1N 106.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 080000UTC 21.3N 104.9E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 945 HPA
AT 20.5N 108.1E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.1N 106.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 21.3N 104.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 062246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 062100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 082100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 20.4N 108.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 21.0N 106.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 072100UTC 21.4N 105.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081800UTC 21.6N 104.0E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 945 HPA
AT 20.4N 108.5E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 21.0N 106.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 21.4N 105.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240906190530
2024090618 12W YAGI 022 02 285 12 SATL RADR 030
T000 203N 1090E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 210N 1069E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 215N 1051E 070
T036 219N 1034E 040
T048 222N 1015E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.2N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 108.5E.
06SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090600 192N1122E 135
1224090600 192N1122E 135
1224090600 192N1122E 135
1224090606 197N1114E 130
1224090606 197N1114E 130
1224090606 197N1114E 130
1224090612 200N1102E 115
1224090612 200N1102E 115
1224090612 200N1102E 115
1224090618 203N1090E 105
1224090618 203N1090E 105
1224090618 203N1090E 105


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 061946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 061800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000042300
35430


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 109.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 20.3N 109.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 20.8N 107.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 071800UTC 21.4N 105.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 081800UTC 21.6N 104.0E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 945 HPA
AT 20.3N 109.0E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 20.8N 107.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.4N 105.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 21.6N 104.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 061646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 061500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 930 HPA
AT 20.2N 109.7E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 20.7N 108.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 21.3N 106.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 20.2N 109.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 20.7N 108.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 071500UTC 21.3N 106.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 081200UTC 21.8N 104.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240906134952
2024090612 12W YAGI 021 02 285 11 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 200N 1102E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 206N 1084E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 213N 1065E 075 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 217N 1047E 050
T048 220N 1029E 035
T072 225N 0996E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.7N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.0N 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.5N 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 109.8E.
06SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z
IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090606 197N1113E 125
1224090606 197N1113E 125
1224090606 197N1113E 125
1224090612 200N1102E 120
1224090612 200N1102E 120
1224090612 200N1102E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 061346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 061200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 20.0N, 110.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 20.0N 110.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 20.6N 108.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 071200UTC 21.3N 106.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 081200UTC 21.8N 104.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 930 HPA
AT 20.0N 110.2E HAINAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.6N 108.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.3N 106.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 21.8N 104.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 061046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 060900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (103.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 19.9N 110.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 20.6N 108.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 070900UTC 21.2N 107.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 080600UTC 21.8N 104.7E 55NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 925 HPA
AT 19.9N 110.8E HAINAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 20.6N 108.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 21.2N 107.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240906073333
2024090606 12W YAGI 020 02 300 10 SATL 015
T000 197N 1113E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 203N 1095E 105 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 210N 1077E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 216N 1058E 055
T048 219N 1039E 040
T072 224N 1006E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.3N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.4N 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 110.8E.
06SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060600Z IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z
IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND
070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LEEPI) WARNINGS
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090500 190N1158E 140
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 125
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090518 192N1130E 135
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090606 197N1113E 125
1224090606 197N1113E 125
1224090606 197N1113E 125
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 060746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 060600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.8N, 111.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 925 HPA
AT 19.8N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 20.3N 109.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.0N 107.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 21.8N 104.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 19.8N 111.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 20.3N 109.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 070600UTC 21.0N 107.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 080600UTC 21.8N 104.7E 55NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 060446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 060300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 19.5N 111.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 20.2N 110.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 070300UTC 20.9N 108.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 080000UTC 21.7N 104.5E 55NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.5N 111.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 20.2N 110.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 20.9N 108.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240906011909
2024090600 12W YAGI 019 02 270 08 SATL 015
T000 192N 1122E 130 R064 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 197N 1104E 115 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 204N 1086E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 210N 1067E 080 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 215N 1047E 055 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 220N 1014E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 019
1. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 112.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 112.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.4N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.0N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.0N 101.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 111.8E.
06SEP24. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 922 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090518 192N1130E 130
1224090518 192N1130E 130
1224090518 192N1130E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
1224090600 192N1122E 130
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 060146 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 060000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (104.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 060146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 060000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (104.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000041600
30415


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 112.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 19.2N 112.2E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 20.1N 110.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 070000UTC 20.7N 108.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 080000UTC 21.7N 104.5E 55NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.2N 112.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 20.1N 110.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.7N 108.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 21.7N 104.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 052246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 052100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 900 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 082100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 19.2N 112.6E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 060900UTC 20.0N 111.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 062100UTC 20.7N 109.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 071800UTC 21.8N 105.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 081800UTC 22.2N 102.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.2N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 20.0N 111.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 20.7N 109.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 051946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 051800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240905191428
2024090518 12W YAGI 018 02 265 10 SATL 030
T000 192N 1130E 120 R064 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 197N 1112E 115 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 204N 1093E 100 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 210N 1074E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 215N 1056E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 220N 1019E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.5N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.0N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 112.5E.
05SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 934 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090518 192N1130E 120
1224090518 192N1130E 120
1224090518 192N1130E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 113.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ITS TEMPORAL SUSPENSION OF DEVELOPMENT HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 19.2N 113.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 060600UTC 19.9N 111.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 061800UTC 20.4N 109.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 071800UTC 21.8N 105.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 081800UTC 22.2N 102.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.2N 113.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 19.9N 111.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 20.4N 109.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.8N 105.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 22.2N 102.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 051646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 051500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE
ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.3N 113.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 20.4N 110.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 19.3N 113.5E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 20.4N 110.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 071200UTC 21.6N 106.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 081200UTC 22.0N 103.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240905134705
2024090512 12W YAGI 017 02 275 09 SATL 015
T000 193N 1141E 120 R064 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 197N 1124E 115 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 202N 1105E 100 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 207N 1085E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 212N 1064E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 219N 1022E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.2N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.9N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 113.7E.
05SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 933 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090512 193N1141E 120
1224090512 193N1141E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 051346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 051200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE
ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ZERO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (101.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 114.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 19.3N 114.2E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 20.3N 110.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 071200UTC 21.6N 106.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 081200UTC 22.0N 103.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.3N 114.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 20.3N 110.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.6N 106.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 22.0N 103.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 051046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 050900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE
ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (102.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.4N 114.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 20.2N 111.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 19.4N 114.7E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 20.2N 111.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 070600UTC 21.2N 107.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 080600UTC 21.9N 103.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 050746 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 050600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (102.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240905073510
2024090506 12W YAGI 016 02 285 07 SATL 010
T000 192N 1151E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 196N 1135E 120 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 200N 1117E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 206N 1097E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 211N 1076E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 219N 1036E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.6N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.1N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 114.7E.
05SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
050600Z IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND
060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090418 192N1163E 125
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090500 190N1158E 135
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
1224090506 192N1151E 125
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.6N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.1N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 114.7E.
05SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
050600Z IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND
060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 115.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.3N 115.1E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 20.0N 111.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 070600UTC 21.2N 107.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 080600UTC 21.9N 103.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.3N 115.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 20.0N 111.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.2N 107.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 21.9N 103.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 050446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 050300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 120 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.2N 115.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 20.0N 112.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 19.2N 115.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 20.0N 112.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 070000UTC 21.0N 108.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 080000UTC 22.3N 104.3E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240905020905
2024090500 12W YAGI 015 02 260 05 SATL 060
T000 191N 1158E 130 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 193N 1144E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 198N 1126E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 203N 1107E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 209N 1087E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 219N 1043E 040 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 222N 1014E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 015
1. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 115.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.3N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.3N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.9N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.2N 101.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 115.4E.
05SEP24. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 922 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 120
1224090418 192N1163E 120
1224090418 192N1163E 120
1224090500 191N1158E 130
1224090500 191N1158E 130
1224090500 191N1158E 130
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 050146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 050000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 120 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (104.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 115.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 19.0N 115.8E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 19.8N 112.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 070000UTC 21.0N 108.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 080000UTC 22.3N 104.3E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 915 HPA
AT 19.0N 115.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 19.8N 112.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 21.0N 108.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 22.3N 104.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 042246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 042100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE
SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 165 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (104.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 082100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 925 HPA
AT 19.2N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 19.7N 113.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 19.2N 116.0E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 19.7N 113.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 061800UTC 20.7N 109.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 071800UTC 21.9N 105.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 081800UTC 22.3N 101.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240904192539
2024090418 12W YAGI 014 02 270 06 SATL 020
T000 192N 1163E 120 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 194N 1151E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 197N 1135E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 202N 1116E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 206N 1096E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 216N 1055E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 222N 1021E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.2N 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.0E.
04SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 932 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090406 191N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090418 192N1163E 120
1224090418 192N1163E 120
1224090418 192N1163E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.2N 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.0E.
04SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 932 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 116.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND OR HAINAN
ISLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 041946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 041800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE
SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
ONE ZERO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (101.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 19.2N 116.3E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 19.5N 113.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 061800UTC 20.7N 109.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 071800UTC 21.9N 105.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 081800UTC 22.3N 101.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 935 HPA
AT 19.2N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 19.5N 113.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 20.7N 109.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.9N 105.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 22.3N 101.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 19.2N 116.5E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 19.4N 113.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 061200UTC 20.4N 110.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 071200UTC 21.5N 106.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 081200UTC 21.3N 101.4E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 950 HPA
AT 19.2N 116.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 19.4N 113.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 041346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 041200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000008800
19191


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 117.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT HAINAN ISLAND OR THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240904132319
2024090412 12W YAGI 013 02 270 05 SATL 020
T000 192N 1169E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 194N 1157E 120 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 196N 1141E 130 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 199N 1126E 135 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 205N 1106E 110 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 213N 1063E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 220N 1024E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.6N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.5N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.0N 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.6E.
04SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 192N1174E 80
1224090406 192N1174E 80
1224090406 192N1174E 80
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
1224090412 192N1169E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 19.2N 117.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 19.4N 114.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 061200UTC 20.4N 110.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 071200UTC 21.5N 106.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 081200UTC 21.3N 101.4E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 950 HPA
AT 19.2N 117.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 19.4N 114.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 20.4N 110.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.5N 106.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 21.3N 101.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 955 HPA
AT 19.2N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 19.5N 114.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 19.2N 117.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 19.5N 114.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 060600UTC 20.3N 111.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 070600UTC 21.1N 106.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 080600UTC 22.1N 102.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240904074221
2024090406 12W YAGI 012 02 290 03 SATL 020
T000 192N 1174E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 193N 1165E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 195N 1151E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 198N 1133E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 202N 1114E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 212N 1069E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 220N 1026E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 222N 0991E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.2N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.0N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.2N 99.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 117.2E.
04SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090318 189N1185E 60
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090400 191N1177E 70
1224090406 192N1174E 80
1224090406 192N1174E 80
1224090406 192N1174E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.2N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.0N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.2N 99.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 117.2E.
04SEP24. TYPHOON 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040600 UTC, TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (102.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 117.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 19.2N 117.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 19.5N 115.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 060600UTC 20.3N 111.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 070600UTC 21.1N 106.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 080600UTC 22.1N 102.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 965 HPA
AT 19.2N 117.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 19.5N 115.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 20.3N 111.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.1N 106.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.1N 102.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040300 UTC, TYPHOON YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN
POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (102.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
NINE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (99.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.
0000044700
16555


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) 970 HPA
AT 19.0N 117.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 19.3N 115.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 19.0N 117.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 19.3N 115.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 060000UTC 19.8N 112.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 070000UTC 20.8N 108.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 080000UTC 21.6N 102.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY YAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 117.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2411 YAGI (2411) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 19.0N 117.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 19.2N 115.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 060000UTC 19.8N 112.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 070000UTC 20.8N 108.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 080000UTC 21.6N 102.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2411 YAGI (2411) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 19.0N 117.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 19.2N 115.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 19.8N 112.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.8N 108.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 21.6N 102.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 032246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 032100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0
N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 082100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
NINE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (99.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 032100
WARNING 032100.
WARNING VALID 042100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 985 HPA
AT 18.9N 117.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 19.2N 115.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 18.9N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 19.2N 115.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 051800UTC 19.4N 113.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 061800UTC 20.3N 109.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 071800UTC 21.2N 105.5E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 081800UTC 21.3N 100.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240903193229
2024090318 12W YAGI 010 01 280 06 SATL 050
T000 188N 1183E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 189N 1173E 065 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 189N 1162E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 190N 1150E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 193N 1133E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 203N 1096E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 214N 1057E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 220N 1025E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.9N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.3N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.4N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.0N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 118.0E.
03SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 45
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090312 187N1189E 50
1224090318 188N1183E 55
1224090318 188N1183E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9
N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ZERO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (101.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 117.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A
CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 18.9N 117.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 19.1N 116.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 051800UTC 19.4N 113.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 061800UTC 20.3N 109.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 071800UTC 21.2N 105.5E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 081800UTC 21.3N 100.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 985 HPA
AT 18.9N 117.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 19.1N 116.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 19.4N 113.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 20.3N 109.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.2N 105.5E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 21.3N 100.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8
N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 990 HPA
AT 18.7N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 18.9N 116.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 18.7N 118.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 18.9N 116.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 051200UTC 19.0N 114.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 061200UTC 20.0N 111.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 071200UTC 21.2N 107.6E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 081200UTC 22.4N 103.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8
N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.
0000143800
12095


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 118.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 18.6N 118.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 18.9N 116.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 051200UTC 19.0N 114.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 061200UTC 20.0N 111.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 071200UTC 21.2N 107.6E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 081200UTC 22.4N 103.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 990 HPA
AT 18.6N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 18.9N 116.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 19.0N 114.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 20.0N 111.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.2N 107.6E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 22.4N 103.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7
N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 990 HPA
AT 18.5N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 18.9N 116.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 18.5N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 18.9N 116.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 050600UTC 18.8N 115.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 060600UTC 19.5N 112.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 070600UTC 21.0N 109.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 080600UTC 22.1N 105.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.6N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 118.9E.
03SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240903075158
2024090306 12W YAGI 008 01 280 05 SATL 030
T000 185N 1191E 040 R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 188N 1183E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 190N 1172E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 190N 1162E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 190N 1150E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 196N 1118E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 208N 1082E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 216N 1055E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.6N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 118.9E.
03SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 182N1206E 40
1224090300 184N1196E 40
1224090306 185N1191E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 118.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2411 YAGI (2411) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 18.5N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 19.0N 117.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 050600UTC 18.8N 115.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 060600UTC 19.5N 112.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 070600UTC 21.0N 109.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 080600UTC 22.1N 105.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 18.5N 118.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 19.0N 117.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.8N 115.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 19.5N 112.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.0N 109.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.1N 105.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 18.4N 119.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 19.2N 117.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 050000UTC 19.1N 115.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 060000UTC 19.3N 112.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 070000UTC 20.5N 109.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 080000UTC 21.6N 106.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030300
WARNING 030300.
WARNING VALID 040300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 998 HPA
AT 18.4N 119.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 19.2N 117.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240903012314
2024090300 12W YAGI 007 01 290 12 SATL 050
T000 183N 1195E 040 R034 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 186N 1185E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 189N 1174E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 190N 1161E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 190N 1146E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 193N 1117E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 204N 1083E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 219N 1049E 040
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.6N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.0N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.3N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.4N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 119.2E.
03SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 179N1207E 40
1224090300 183N1195E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.6N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.0N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.3N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.4N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 119.2E.
03SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 119.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LAND AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 18.2N 119.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 19.3N 118.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 050000UTC 19.1N 115.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 060000UTC 19.3N 112.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 070000UTC 20.5N 109.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 080000UTC 21.6N 106.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 998 HPA
AT 18.2N 119.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 19.3N 118.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 19.1N 115.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 19.3N 112.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.5N 109.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 21.6N 106.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 022246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 022100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE TWO
ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 1000 HPA
AT 18.0N 120.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 18.8N 119.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 19.1N 118.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 18.0N 120.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 18.8N 119.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 032100UTC 19.1N 118.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041800UTC 19.0N 116.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 051800UTC 18.9N 113.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 061800UTC 20.1N 110.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 071800UTC 21.5N 107.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 18.1N, 121.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240902193045
2024090218 12W YAGI 006 01 300 09 SATL SYNP 060
T000 179N 1209E 035 R034 080 NE QD 035 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 186N 1197E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 189N 1188E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 191N 1174E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 189N 1159E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 190N 1133E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 198N 1104E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 211N 1068E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.6N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.1N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 120.6E.
02SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1222E 45
1224090212 175N1217E 35
1224090218 179N1209E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.6N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 18.1N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 18.8N 119.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 031800UTC 19.0N 118.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041800UTC 19.0N 116.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 051800UTC 18.9N 113.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 061800UTC 20.1N 110.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 071800UTC 21.5N 107.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 1000 HPA
AT 18.1N 121.0E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 18.8N 119.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 19.0N 118.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 19.0N 116.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 18.9N 113.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 20.1N 110.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.5N 107.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071500 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 17.7N 121.5E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 18.9N 120.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 031500UTC 19.0N 118.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 041200UTC 18.8N 116.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 051200UTC 18.4N 114.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 061200UTC 19.3N 111.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 071200UTC 20.7N 108.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240902134114
2024090212 12W YAGI 005 01 340 08 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 172N 1220E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 185N 1209E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 191N 1196E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 193N 1185E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 192N 1173E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 190N 1144E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 198N 1112E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 210N 1079E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.2N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.8N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.0N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 121.7E.
02SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 996 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1223E 45
1224090212 172N1220E 40


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 17.3N, 121.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 021200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.
0000168800
04678


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 17.3N 121.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 18.8N 120.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 031200UTC 18.7N 119.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 041200UTC 18.8N 116.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 051200UTC 18.4N 114.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 061200UTC 19.3N 111.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 071200UTC 20.7N 108.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 994 HPA
AT 17.3N 121.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 18.8N 120.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 18.7N 119.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 18.8N 116.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 18.4N 114.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 19.3N 111.0E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 20.7N 108.2E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 16.9N 121.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 18.6N 121.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030900UTC 19.0N 119.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040600UTC 19.0N 117.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 050600UTC 18.7N 115.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 060600UTC 19.4N 112.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 070600UTC 21.0N 109.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240902073428
2024090206 12W YAGI 004 01 350 10 SATL RADR 025
T000 164N 1223E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 181N 1215E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 190N 1201E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 193N 1189E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 193N 1178E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 194N 1153E 110 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 201N 1124E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 210N 1096E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.1N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.3N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.1N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 122.1E.
02SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 147N1230E 35
1224090200 154N1225E 45
1224090206 164N1223E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 122.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 16.1N 122.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 18.5N 121.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030600UTC 19.1N 120.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040600UTC 19.0N 117.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 050600UTC 18.7N 115.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 060600UTC 19.4N 112.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 070600UTC 21.0N 109.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 994 HPA
AT 16.1N 122.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 18.5N 121.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 19.1N 120.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 19.0N 117.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.7N 115.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 19.4N 112.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.0N 109.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 15.7N 122.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 17.7N 122.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030300UTC 18.9N 121.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040000UTC 19.5N 119.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 050000UTC 18.9N 116.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 060000UTC 19.2N 114.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 070000UTC 20.4N 111.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240902015410
2024090200 12W YAGI 003 03 315 06 SATL 060
T000 152N 1226E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 171N 1219E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 185N 1207E 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 190N 1194E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T048 192N 1183E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 192N 1160E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 198N 1130E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 206N 1106E 100 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.2N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 122.4E.
02SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W (SHANSHAN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 148N1230E 35
1224090200 152N1226E 40


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.2N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 122.4E.
02SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W (SHANSHAN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 122.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 15.1N 122.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 17.1N 122.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030000UTC 18.9N 121.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 19.5N 119.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 050000UTC 18.9N 116.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 060000UTC 19.2N 114.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 070000UTC 20.4N 111.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 994 HPA
AT 15.1N 122.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 17.1N 122.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 18.9N 121.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 19.5N 119.6E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 18.9N 116.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 19.2N 114.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.4N 111.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 012246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 012100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 14.7N 123.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 16.7N 122.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 022100UTC 18.5N 122.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 031800UTC 19.4N 120.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 041800UTC 18.9N 117.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 051800UTC 18.8N 115.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 061800UTC 20.2N 112.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240901195632
2024090118 12W YAGI 002 02 300 14 SATL 060
T000 146N 1232E 035 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 164N 1225E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 181N 1219E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 190N 1207E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 193N 1195E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 191N 1171E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 194N 1147E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 202N 1124E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.1N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 123.0E.
01SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W (SHANSHAN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1256E 25
1224090112 139N1244E 35
1224090118 146N1232E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 14.5N, 123.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM YAGI (2411) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 14.5N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 16.3N 122.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 021800UTC 18.2N 122.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 031800UTC 19.4N 120.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041800UTC 18.9N 117.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 051800UTC 18.8N 115.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 061800UTC 20.2N 112.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) 996 HPA
AT 14.5N 123.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 16.3N 122.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 18.2N 122.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 19.4N 120.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 18.9N 117.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 18.8N 115.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 20.2N 112.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 14.4N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 15.8N 123.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 021500UTC 17.2N 123.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 031200UTC 19.1N 121.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 041200UTC 19.0N 120.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 051200UTC 19.3N 119.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 061200UTC 20.6N 117.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 240901141814
2024090112 12W TWELVE 001 02 315 11 SATL 045
T000 135N 1247E 030
T012 150N 1237E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 168N 1234E 040 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 184N 1230E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 191N 1221E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 190N 1205E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 192N 1183E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 193N 1153E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (YAGI) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.0N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 124.4E.
01SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z,
020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1224083018 92N1328E 15
1224083100 98N1319E 15
1224083106 107N1311E 20
1224083112 113N1294E 20
1224083118 115N1277E 20
1224090100 120N1264E 20
1224090106 127N1255E 25
1224090112 135N1247E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2411 YAGI (2411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.9N, 125.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(YAGI) STATUS. TS YAGI IS LOCATED AT 14.4N, 124.2E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2411 YAGI (2411) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 14.4N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 15.6N 123.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 021200UTC 16.9N 123.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 031200UTC 19.1N 121.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 041200UTC 19.0N 120.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 051200UTC 19.3N 119.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 061200UTC 20.6N 117.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2411 YAGI (2411) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998
HPA
AT 14.4N 124.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 15.6N 123.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 16.9N 123.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 19.1N 121.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 19.0N 120.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 19.3N 119.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 20.6N 117.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=