Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SON-TINH-24
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TD LOCATED AT 37N 146E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
SON-TINH (2406) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED AT
37N, 146E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07W NWP 240813123458
2024081312 07W SON-TINH 006 04 325 12 SATL 060
T000 372N 1459E 025
T012 399N 1452E 020
T024 424N 1457E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 006
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 37.2N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.9N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 42.4N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 145.7E.
13AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 292 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A GENERAL BROADENING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATING WIND FIELD WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY A 131042 MTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KTS, CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND FULLY DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS PRIOR TO REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF HOKKAIDO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0724081000 261N1539E 15
0724081006 264N1541E 15
0724081012 268N1542E 20
0724081018 271N1544E 25
0724081100 271N1548E 25
0724081106 278N1552E 30
0724081112 288N1549E 35
0724081118 302N1543E 40
0724081200 314N1532E 40
0724081206 324N1515E 40
0724081212 330N1504E 40
0724081218 342N1494E 40
0724081300 353N1479E 35
0724081306 362N1468E 35
0724081312 372N1459E 25
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 006
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 37.2N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.9N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 42.4N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 145.7E.
13AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 292 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATING WIND FIELD WEAKENING.
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 37N 146E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 36.4N 146.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 39.2N 145.4E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 140900UTC 42.7N 146.4E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07W NWP 240813083528
2024081306 07W SON-TINH 005 04 310 11 SATL 060
T000 360N 1469E 035 R034 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 386N 1457E 030
T024 417N 1455E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 38.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 41.7N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 146.6E.
13AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0724081000 261N1539E 15
0724081006 264N1541E 15
0724081012 268N1542E 20
0724081018 271N1544E 25
0724081100 271N1548E 25
0724081106 278N1552E 30
0724081112 288N1549E 35
0724081118 302N1543E 40
0724081200 314N1532E 40
0724081206 324N1515E 40
0724081212 330N1504E 40
0724081218 342N1494E 40
0724081300 353N1479E 35
0724081306 360N1469E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 36.1N, 146.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 36.1N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 38.5N 145.5E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 140600UTC 41.8N 145.9E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 1002 HPA
AT 36.1N 146.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 38.5N 145.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 41.8N 145.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 35.7N 147.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 38.2N 145.6E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 140300UTC 41.2N 145.5E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 35.2N, 147.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 35.3N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 37.7N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 40.4N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 42.9N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 35.9N 147.5E.
13AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07W NWP 240813005658
2024081300 07W SON-TINH 004 03 315 18 SATL 020
T000 353N 1479E 035 R034 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 377N 1462E 030
T024 404N 1455E 025
T036 429N 1456E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 35.3N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 37.7N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 40.4N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 42.9N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 35.9N 147.5E.
13AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0724081000 261N1539E 15
0724081006 264N1541E 15
0724081012 268N1542E 20
0724081018 271N1544E 25
0724081100 271N1548E 25
0724081106 278N1552E 30
0724081112 288N1549E 35
0724081118 302N1543E 40
0724081200 314N1532E 40
0724081206 324N1515E 40
0724081212 330N1504E 40
0724081218 341N1495E 40
0724081300 353N1479E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 35.2N 147.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 37.5N 146.0E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 140000UTC 40.5N 145.5E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 1002 HPA
AT 35.2N 147.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 37.5N 146.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 40.5N 145.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 34.6N 148.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 36.9N 146.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 132100UTC 39.6N 145.3E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 34.2N, 149.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS NOW ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 34.1N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.3N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 38.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07W NWP 240812183755
2024081218 07W SON-TINH 003 03 325 13 SATL 020
T000 341N 1495E 040 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 363N 1474E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 388N 1460E 030
T036 413N 1458E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 34.1N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.3N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 38.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 41.3N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 149.0E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0724081000 261N1539E 15
0724081006 264N1541E 15
0724081012 268N1542E 20
0724081018 271N1544E 25
0724081100 271N1548E 25
0724081106 278N1552E 30
0724081112 288N1549E 35
0724081118 302N1543E 40
0724081200 314N1532E 40
0724081206 324N1515E 40
0724081212 330N1504E 40
0724081218 341N1495E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 34.2N 149.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 36.3N 147.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131800UTC 38.9N 145.6E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 1000 HPA
AT 34.2N 149.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 36.3N 147.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 38.9N 145.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 33.3N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 35.7N 147.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131500UTC 38.0N 145.8E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07W NWP 240812130848
2024081212 07W SON-TINH 002 03 305 11 SATL 030
T000 330N 1504E 040 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 348N 1482E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 372N 1461E 030
T036 396N 1452E 025
T048 418N 1460E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 33.0N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.8N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 37.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.6N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 41.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 149.9E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 549
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0724081000 261N1539E 15
0724081006 264N1541E 15
0724081012 268N1542E 20
0724081018 271N1544E 25
0724081100 271N1548E 25
0724081106 278N1552E 30
0724081112 288N1549E 35
0724081118 302N1543E 40
0724081200 314N1532E 40
0724081206 324N1515E 40
0724081212 330N1504E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 32.9N, 150.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 33.0N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.8N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 37.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 32.9N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 35.2N 148.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131200UTC 37.4N 146.1E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 1000 HPA
AT 32.9N 150.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 35.2N 148.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 37.4N 146.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 32.5N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 34.7N 148.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130900UTC 36.8N 146.4E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 001 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 32.4N 151.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 151.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 34.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.2N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 38.6N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 40.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 150.8E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07W NWP 240812075505
2024081206 07W SON-TINH 001 02 305 18 SATL 030
T000 324N 1515E 040 R034 110 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 342N 1488E 035 R034 100 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 362N 1466E 035 R034 110 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 386N 1451E 030
T048 409N 1445E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 32.4N 151.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 151.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 34.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.2N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 38.6N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 40.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 150.8E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0724081000 261N1539E 15
0724081006 264N1541E 15
0724081012 268N1542E 20
0724081018 271N1544E 25
0724081100 271N1548E 25
0724081106 278N1552E 30
0724081112 288N1549E 35
0724081118 302N1543E 40
0724081200 314N1532E 40
0724081206 324N1515E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 151.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 32.3N 151.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 34.2N 149.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130600UTC 36.2N 146.7E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 998 HPA
AT 32.3N 151.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 34.2N 149.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 36.2N 146.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 32.1N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 33.6N 150.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130300UTC 35.7N 147.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 140000UTC 40.8N 145.9E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 153.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 31.3N 153.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 33.1N 150.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130000UTC 35.2N 148.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140000UTC 40.8N 145.9E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 998 HPA
AT 31.3N 153.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 33.1N 150.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 35.2N 148.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 40.8N 145.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 30.8N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 32.8N 151.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 122100UTC 34.8N 148.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131800UTC 38.8N 145.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 154.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 30.2N 154.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 32.3N 151.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 121800UTC 34.2N 149.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131800UTC 38.8N 145.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) 994 HPA
AT 30.2N 154.4E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 32.3N 151.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 34.2N 149.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 38.8N 145.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 29.5N 154.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 32.0N 152.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 121500UTC 34.0N 149.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131200UTC 37.8N 145.7E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (SON-TINH) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO.
TS SON-TINH IS LOCATED AT 29.1N, 154.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2406 SON-TINH (2406) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
994 HPA
AT 29.1N 154.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 31.6N 152.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 33.6N 150.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 37.8N 145.7E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 29.1N 154.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 31.6N 152.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 121200UTC 33.6N 150.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131200UTC 37.8N 145.7E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2406 SON-TINH (2406) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 28.4N 155.2E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 31.1N 153.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 120900UTC 33.1N 151.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130600UTC 37.0N 146.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =