Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DEBBY-24
in United States, Cuba

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 082032
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now
located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia,
with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface
observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and
offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression.
Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be
some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North
Carolina coast for a few more hours.

The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the
north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward
speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its
remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the
next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical
transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 082031
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z...INLAND
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 80.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 80.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DEBBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DEBBY CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby
was located inland near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 80.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A faster northward or north-northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Debby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force could occur for a few more
hours along portions of the North Carolina coast.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in the Cape Fear, Neuse,
and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through tonight from central
and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia.
The threat for tornadoes will shift northward into parts of New
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania on Friday.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 80.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near inland latitude 34.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The
storm is expected to accelerate toward the north across central
North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move
faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is likely to
become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby
should then merge with a front and become extratropical on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along
portions of coastal North Carolina within the tropical storm
warning area during the few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this
storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO
header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central
and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 081442
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data
indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the
coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest
sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable
surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based
on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant
threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy
rainfall.

Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the
current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently
strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to
accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this
evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes
region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and
then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes
to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models.

Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most
of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease
a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams
show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical
cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows
that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream,
which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic.
Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about
24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the
mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical
Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will
eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby
dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern
South Carolina and portions of North Carolina.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along
portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 081441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 79.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081441
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA AS DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 79.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River to Murrells
Inlet has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next several hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 79.9 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm
is expected to accelerate toward the north across central North
Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster
toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on
Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is
likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening.
Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of northeastern South Carolina and portions of coastal North
Carolina within the tropical storm warning area during the next
several hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this
storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO
header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central
and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081152 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 24A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...

Corrected Maximum Sustained Winds in Summary Section

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located inland over South Carolina near latitude 34.1 North,
longitude 79.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 7
mph (11 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the
north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central
North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move
faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this
afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and
become extratropical on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and
a gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area for much of the day.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina this morning. The tornado threat will shift northward
later today into central North Carolina and southern to central
Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located inland over South Carolina near latitude 34.1 North,
longitude 79.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 7
mph (11 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the
north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central
North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move
faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this
afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and
become extratropical on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and
a gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area for much of the day.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina this morning. The tornado threat will shift northward
later today into central North Carolina and southern to central
Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080853
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Surface observations and satellite imagery suggest that Debby's
circulation has become stretched out to the north and south, but
the center appeared to make landfall around 0600 UTC in the Bulls
Bay area of South Carolina. A shield of moderate to heavy rain has
spread northward into North Carolina, while a trailing band of deep
convection is located offshore the coast of South Carolina. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission that concluded around
midnight measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and SFMR
winds of 40-45 kt well east of the center, and the current
intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt.

Debby's center has not yet made much headway into South Carolina
since the initial motion is northwestward (325 deg) at only 4 kt.
A strengthening ridge over the Atlantic should start giving Debby a
push to the north today, with the center of the cyclone moving
across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through
tonight. A deep-layer trough over the Upper Midwest should then
cause Debby to turn northeastward and accelerate over the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and then
over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. No significant changes were made
to the NHC track forecast compared to the one in the previous
advisory.

Debby is expected to continue weakening as the center moves farther
inland, and global model fields suggest that winds near the coast
should fall below tropical storm force, with the cyclone becoming a
depression, by this afternoon or evening. Model phase-space
diagrams, and the convective pattern in simulated satellite
imagery, then indicate that Debby will merge with a cold front and
become extratropical over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Debby
is shown to be dissipated by day 4 based on continuity from the
previous forecast, but it is possible that an area of low pressure
could continue eastward over the north Atlantic for a few more days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through
Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 33.2N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1800Z 34.2N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 36.3N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 44.5N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1800Z 48.7N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 51.6N 58.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY'S CENTER CREEPING INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina east of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of South
Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North,
longitude 79.7 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 5
mph (7 km/h) but is expected to accelerate toward the
north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central
North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move
faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Debby is
likely to become a tropical depression by this afternoon or
evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become
extratropical on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h)
and a gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape
Lookout, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina this morning. The tornado threat will shift northward
today into central North Carolina and southern to central Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080850
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.2N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.3N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.5N 72.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.7N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 51.6N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 79.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080544
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate
that Debby has made landfall near Bulls Bay, South Carolina. At
200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located on the coast near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 79.6 West.
Debby is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A
faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the
Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected later today
and on Friday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast today as the
center moves farther inland. Debby is expected to merge with a
frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday or
Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm
watch area in North Carolina through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15
inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through today, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For Long Island and the remainder of New England, 1 to 2 inches,
with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday.
Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina early this morning. The risk of tornadoes will shift
northward on Thursday into central North Carolina and central
Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080232
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Debby has
a large central area of light and variable winds, with bands of
deep convection well removed from the center in both the northern
and southern semicircles. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt
for this advisory, with these winds likely confined to the area of
stronger convection to the southeast of the center. The central
pressure based on surface observations is near 994 mb.

Debby has been drifting just west of due north for the past several
hours with an initial motion of 345/3. This has brought the center
near the South Carolina coast, and it is expected to move inland
during the next few hours. A continued slow north-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 24 h, with the center crossing
eastern South Carolina moving into North Carolina. After that, the
cyclone should recurve to the north and northeast on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes. The latest track
guidance has shifted a little to the west of the previous guidance,
and the new forecast track is also shifted a little westward.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves
inland. After that, Debby is expected to weaken, with the system
dropping below tropical-storm strength after 24 h. As Debby
crosses through the mid-Atlantic States, the cyclone is expected
to merge with a frontal system and become an extratropical low by
60 h. However, it is important to note that none of these changes
will diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United
States during the next few days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 32.9N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 35.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 42.1N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 46.3N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 49.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, bringing
the center across the South Carolina coast during the next several
hours. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across
the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected later on
Thursday and on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves
inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41013 near Frying Pan
Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 38
mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm
watch area in North Carolina tonight through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15
inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For Long Island and the remainder of New England, 1 to 2 inches,
with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday.
Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina overnight. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on
Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.3N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.1N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.1N 75.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.3N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 49.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072347
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.4 West. Debby is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, bringing the center across the South
Carolina coast late tonight or on Thursday morning. After landfall,
a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the
Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight before the center of
Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to
begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected
to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east if the center. A Coastal Ocean Research and
Monitoring Program buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently
reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm
watch area in North Carolina today through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15
inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding
expected across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. The
risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central
North Carolina and central Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 072046
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Debby is producing small, broken bands of convection around its
center this afternoon. The storm continues to meander around NOAA
buoy 41004, and data from that station indicate the central pressure
remains around 995 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported peak
SFMR winds of 47 kt within convection to the northeast of the center
during their last pass through the storm a few hours ago. Based on
these data and the earlier flight-level winds, the initial intensity
is held at 50 kt.

Although the storm is moving over warm waters, it lacks an inner
core and has a large radius of maximum wind. Therefore, only modest
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while the system
approaches South Carolina, in best agreement with some of the
statistical guidance. Once inland, Debby is expected to quickly lose
tropical characteristics and weaken. The interaction of Debby with
the upper trough will lead to a baroclinic transition as the low
merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical. The NHC
forecast shows this occurring by Friday. However, it is important to
note that these changes do not diminish the threat of heavy rainfall
and flooding across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and
northeastern United States during the next few days.

The long-term motion of Debby is a north-northeastward drift within
weak steering currents between two subtropical high pressure areas.
However, more recent fixes suggest the system may be turning
northward as expected, with a ridge beginning to build to the east
of Debby over the western Atlantic. Thus, a north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected through tonight while Debby approaches
the coast of South Carolina. After landfall, Debby will become
caught in southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough near the Great Lakes region. This will cause the storm to
accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Friday and into
the weekend. With the guidance in good agreement on this scenario,
little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 32.5N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 072044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, bringing the center across the South
Carolina coast on Thursday morning. After landfall, a faster motion
toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible tonight before the center of Debby
reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin
on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to
merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently
reported a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA buoy data is
995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm
watch area in North Carolina today through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15
inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding
expected across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. The
risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central
North Carolina and central Virginia.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY STILL MOVING SLOWLY...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch from north of South Santee River, South
Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 79.1 West. Debby has
been drifting northeastward near 3 mph (6 km/h). A generally
northward motion is expected later today, bringing the center to
the South Carolina coast on Thursday morning. After crossing the
coast, a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across
the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of
Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to
begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected
to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the
tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches
in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable
flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina
and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 116.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2024 17.5N 116.4W MODERATE
00UTC 08.08.2024 19.9N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 21.0N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 21.8N 124.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2024 22.8N 126.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2024 23.9N 128.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2024 25.0N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2024 25.7N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2024 26.4N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 26.5N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 116.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2024 17.5N 116.4W MODERATE
00UTC 08.08.2024 19.9N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 21.0N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 21.8N 124.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2024 22.8N 126.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2024 23.9N 128.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2024 25.0N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2024 25.7N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2024 26.4N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 26.5N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 79.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2024 32.0N 79.4W MODERATE
00UTC 08.08.2024 32.6N 79.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 33.6N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 34.7N 80.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2024 37.8N 79.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2024 42.2N 76.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2024 47.1N 70.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2024 49.7N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2024 50.0N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071611


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071454
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.9N 79.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.2N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 54.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 071455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
surface winds to near 50 kt in an area located over 100 n mi
southeast of the center. Most of Debby's deep convection is
occurring in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the
center, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity near/over the
center. The advisory intensity is increased to 50 kt based on the
aircraft data.

The cyclone has been moving slowly northeastward and the initial
motion estimate is 040/4 kt. Debby is currently situated between
two subtropical high pressure centers and remains within relatively
weak steering currents. Later today and tonight, the ridge to
the east of Debby should build slightly and cause the system
to move generally northward and make landfall in 12 to 24 hours.
The steering flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough near the Great
Lakes is likely to cause Debby to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward over the eastern U.S. during the next few days. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good
agreement with the corrected consensus guidance.

Given that the strongest winds are occurring well to southeast of
the center, Debby lacks a well-defined inner core, which indicates
that significant re-intensification is not likely. However, since
the system lies over warm water this could allow for some limited
strengthening before landfall and this is reflected in the official
forecast. The official forecast remains at the high end of the
model intensity guidance. Debby should merge with a frontal zone
and become an extratropical cyclone over the northeastern U.S. in a
couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 32.3N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 32.9N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 35.2N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 38.0N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 42.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 52.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 54.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch from north of South Santee River, South
Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 79.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) A generally
northward motion is expected later today, bringing the center to
the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster
motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and
the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today
or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South
Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the
center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal
boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the
tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches
in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable
flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina
and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
32.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Debby is moving toward the
northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and
north-northwest is expected today, bringing the center of Debby to
the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster
motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and
the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region is expected on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the
center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is
forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby
is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic states on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at Murells Inlet South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the
tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches
in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable
flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina
and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070844
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY LOITERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An even slower motion
toward the north and north-northwest is expected today, bringing
the center of Debby to the South Carolina coast by tonight or
early Thursday. A faster motion toward the north and
north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
region is expected on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center
of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is
forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby
is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the
tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and
continuing through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches
in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable
flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina
and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070845
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Debby's circulation consists of a nearly 60 nm wide convection-free
region near the center, which is drifting eastward off the coast of
South Carolina. Moderate to deep convection is organized in broken
bands well away from the center, with the strongest band currently
feeding into eastern North Carolina. The storm appears to have
strengthened slightly now that a greater proportion of the
circulation is back over water, and the initial intensity is set at
40 kt based on a 0143 UTC ASCAT-B pass.

The longer-term motion is slowly eastward, or 085/4 kt. Although
Debby is expected to maintain a slow motion for the next 24 hours or
so, a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic should
cause the storm to turn northward today, with the center reaching
the coast of South Carolina by tonight. Debby should then
accelerate toward the north and northeast beginning on Thursday over
the eastern United States and eastern Canada, ahead of a deep-layer
trough moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. No
changes were required to the new NHC track forecast, which lies on
top of the previous forecast and down the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Debby's structure does not argue for any type of significant
strengthening, but warm ocean waters of 29 degrees Celsius and low
shear could allow the wind field to strengthen a bit over the next
24 hours while the circulation remains over water. A peak intensity
of 45 kt is shown at 12 and 24 hours, which is generally in line
with the bulk of the intensity guidance. Weakening is forecast to
begin by 36 hours once the center moves inland, and global model
fields and phase-space diagrams indicate that Debby is likely to be
absorbed by a front and become extratropical by 60 hours over the
Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of eastern South Carolina and
southeast North Carolina is expected to persist through Thursday
which would broaden areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy
rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from
the Piedmont of the Carolinas, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States,
and Vermont through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. Debby is
moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion
toward the east and then north is expected today through Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to
slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina
tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then
move inland over South Carolina on Thursday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby
remains offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday
after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the southeast and south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the
tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and
continuing through Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm
total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25
inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of
eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday.

From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina,
northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, western and northern New York State into Northern New
England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected
through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across
southeast Georgia through this morning, which may aggravate any
ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal
South Carolina and North Carolina through this morning.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070305
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar observations indicate that the
center of Debby has emerged over the Atlantic southeast of
Savannah, Georgia. The system is currently comprised of a large
swirl of shallow to moderate convection with occasional patches of
deep convection, particularly in bands to the east of the center.
GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates that interaction with an
upper-level trough has spread cool/dry air aloft over the low-level
center, making the cyclone look somewhat subtropical. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt based on Doppler radar winds in the
bands east of the center and a recent 1-minute wind of 31 kt at
NOAA buoy 41008 to the southwest of the center.

Debby is moving slowly and somewhat erratically eastward, with the
initial motion of 090/4. The track guidance continues to show a
generally eastward motion for the next 12-18 h, taking the center a
little farther away from the coast. After that, a building
mid-level ridge should cause the system to turn northward and move
back inland between 24-36 h. Subsequently, Debby is likely to
accelerate northward and northeastward over the eastern and
northeastern U.S. on the east side of an approaching
mid-latitude trough. The new forecast track has been adjusted a
little to the left of the previous track through 48 h to better
match the consensus models, and it has been adjusted to the right
during the extratropical phase to better match the global model
guidance.

The dry air aloft, the lack of an inner wind core, and the lack of
deep convection suggest that Debby is at best going to strengthen
slowly, and this scenario is supported by the majority of the
intensity forecast guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for
gradual strengthening until the cyclone makes landfall between the
24 and 36 h forecast points. Weakening is expected after landfall,
with Debby expected to become post-tropical around 72 h and
complete transition to an extratropical cyclone by 96 h. The new
intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance
through 36 h and near the intensity consensus after that.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across portions of eastern
South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South
Carolina, western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through
portions of Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State
and northern New England through Saturday.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 31.8N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 32.0N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 33.4N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 34.7N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 36.9N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0000Z 39.9N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 47.1N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 51.5N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070235
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar observations indicate that the
center of Debby has emerged over the Atlantic southeast of
Savannah, Georgia. The system is currently comprised of a large
swirl of shallow to moderate convection with occasional patches of
deep convection, particularly in bands to the east of the center.
GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates that interaction with an
upper-level trough has spread cool/dry air aloft over the low-level
center, making the cyclone look somewhat subtropical. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt based on Doppler radar winds in the
bands east of the center and a recent 1-minute wind of 31 kt at
NOAA buoy 41008 to the southwest of the center.

Dolly is moving slowly and somewhat erratically eastward, with the
initial motion of 090/4. The track guidance continues to show a
generally eastward motion for the next 12-18 h, taking the center a
little farther away from the coast. After that, a building
mid-level ridge should cause the system to turn northward and move
back inland between 24-36 h. Subsequently, Debby is likely to
accelerate northward and northeastward over the eastern and
northeastern U.S. on the east side of an approaching
mid-latitude trough. The new forecast track has been adjusted a
little to the left of the previous track through 48 h to better
match the consensus models, and it has been adjusted to the right
during the extratropical phase to better match the global model
guidance.

The dry air aloft, the lack of an inner wind core, and the lack of
deep convection suggest that Debby is at best going to strengthen
slowly, and this scenario is supported by the majority of the
intensity forecast guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for
gradual strengthening until the cyclone makes landfall between the
24 and 36 h forecast points. Weakening is expected after landfall,
with Debby expected to become post-tropical around 72 h and
complete transition to an extratropical cyclone by 96 h. The new
intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance
through 36 h and near the intensity consensus after that.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across portions of eastern
South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South
Carolina, western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through
portions of Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State
and northern New England through Saturday.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 31.8N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 32.0N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 33.4N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 34.7N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 36.9N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0000Z 39.9N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 47.1N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 51.5N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070233
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.0N 79.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.4N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.7N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 36.9N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 39.9N 77.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 47.1N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 51.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 80.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 80.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of
Georgia from the mouth of the Savannah River southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the mouth of thee Savannah River to Surf City, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward
the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away
from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to
drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over
South Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby remains
offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday after
landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning
early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm
total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25
inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of
eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday.

From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina,
northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, western and northern New York State into Northern New
England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected
through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across
southeast Georgia through tonight, which may aggravate any ongoing
flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal
South Carolina and North Carolina through Wednesday morning.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062333
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY NOW OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 80.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.6 West. Debby is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion
toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly
move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight,
continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then
move inland over South Carolina on Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday while Debby
drifts offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next
few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning
early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches,
bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the
eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From central South Carolina to the Update of South Carolina,
northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, western and northern New York State into Northern New
England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected
through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across
southeast Georgia through tonight, which may aggravate any ongoing
flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal
South Carolina and North Carolina this afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 062054
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to
linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South
Carolina border. The cyclone lacks strong convection near its
center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in
some bands well to the northeast and east of the center. This was
also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass. The central pressure
remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35
kt for this advisory.

Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within
the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very
slow 070/3 kt. The track guidance shows a generally eastward
motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily
offshore. In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause
the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday.
After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the
eastern and northeastern U.S. ahead of an approaching mid-level
trough. The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the
latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and
faster than the previous one.

Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday,
some re-strengthening is anticipated. However since the cyclone
lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to
interact with the high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream,
re-intensification is likely to be limited. The official intensity
forecast is at the high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South
Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable
flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina,
western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of
Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and
northern New England through Saturday.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina
through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 32.1N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 062051 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

CORRECTED INITIAL 34 KT AND 12 FT FT SEAS RADII

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 80.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 80.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 80.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062044
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 80.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Savannah River, Georgia to South
Santee River, South Carolina is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 80.8 West. Debby is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to
move offshore the coast of Georgia and South Carolina later today
and tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and
then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday while Debby
drifts offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next
few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning
early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches,
bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the
eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From central South Carolina to the Update of South Carolina,
northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, western and northern New York State into Northern New
England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected
through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across
southeast Georgia through Tuesday night, which may aggravate any
ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal
South Carolina and North Carolina this afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 062045
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to
linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South
Carolina border. The cyclone lacks strong convection near its
center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in
some bands well to the northeast and east of the center. This was
also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass. The central pressure
remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35
kt for this advisory.

Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within
the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very
slow 070/3 kt. The track guidance shows a generally eastward
motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily
offshore. In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause
the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday.
After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the
eastern and northeastern U.S. ahead of an approaching mid-level
trough. The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the
latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and
faster than the previous one.

Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday,
some re-strengthening is anticipated. However since the cyclone
lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to
interact with the high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream,
re-intensification is likely to be limited. The official intensity
forecast is at the high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South
Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable
flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina,
western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of
Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and
northern New England through Saturday.

2 Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina
through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 32.1N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 062044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 80.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 80.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 80.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 80.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning south of the Savannah River is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 80.9 West. Debby is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion
toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to move
offshore the coast of Georgia later today and tonight, continue to
drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over
South Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday
while Debby drifts offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next
few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning
early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River, GA to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches,
bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the
eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 12 inches,
are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river
flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portion of the
Central Florida Peninsula and southeast Georgia today which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over coastal South Carolina
and coastal southeast North Carolina today through Wednesday
morning.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 061454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface synoptic data, satellite imagery, and WSR-88D radar
observations indicate that the center of the cyclone is near
the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border.
As a result of its interaction with land, Debby's intensity has
decreased to near 35 kt. Most of the deep convection is occurring
in bands well to the east and northeast of the center as drier air
has been impinging on the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.

Debby has been gradually turning to the right and slowing down,
with a current motion estimate of around 060/5 kt. The cyclone is
situated in an area of weak steering currents within the subtropical
ridge. The track guidance shows a slow, generally eastward motion
during the next day or so, bringing the center out over the South
Carolina coastal waters. By late tomorrow and early Thursday, the
global models predict a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east of
Debby. This evolution should cause the system to turn northward
and north-northwestward and move back over the coastline in 36 to
48 hours. Thereafter, Debby is expected to move northeastward near
the northeast U.S. coast at an increasing forward speed, ahead of a
mid-tropospheric trough moving into the Ohio Valley region. The
official forecast is a blend of the latest model consensus
predictions.

Although the center of Debby is forecast to be over water later
today, the lack of an inner core should allow only slow
re-strengthening for the next day or so. Since the system is not
expected to move far enough offshore to interact significantly with
the Gulf Stream, this should limit the amount of oceanic heat
content available to the storm. The official intensity forecast
is near or slightly above the latest statistical/dynamical DSHIPS
and LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1.Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina
through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.
Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding impacts from northern
North Carolina through portions of Mid-Atlantic States and southern
New England through Sunday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia
to North Carolina through Thursday. Storm surge and tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect for portions of these areas.
Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 31.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 81.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Little River Inlet, South
Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina is changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Surf City, North
Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. Debby is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to
move offshore the coast of Georgia later today and tonight, continue
to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over
South Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday while
Debby drifts offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next
few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning
early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Altamaha Sound, GA to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches,
bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the
eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 12 inches,
are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river
flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portion of the
Central Florida Peninsula and southeast Georgia today which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over coastal South Carolina
and coastal southeast North Carolina today through Wednesday
morning.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 061450
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 81.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 81.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 81.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061158
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER
TODAY...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND
NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 81.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located inland over southeastern Georgia near latitude 31.9 North,
longitude 81.3 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph
(9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected
through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby
is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia later today, drift
offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday
while Debby drifts offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h)
and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) were recently reported at Winyah Bay
Light near Georgetown, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast through this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Altamaha Sound, GA to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches,
bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of southeast
Georgia, the eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 12 inches,
are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river
flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portion of the
Central Florida Peninsula today which may aggravate any ongoing
flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over coastal South Carolina
tonight through early Wednesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060851
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Debby's center is just inland of the Georgia coast while most of
the deep convection is oriented in a couple of bands over the
Atlantic waters feeding northwestward into South Carolina.
Scatterometer data from late last evening indicated that the
tropical-storm-force wind field had expanded eastward over the
Atlantic waters, and that the maximum sustained winds were near 40
kt. This was confirmed by a few observations of 35-40 kt sustained
winds along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. The initial
intensity is therefore held at 40 kt.

Debby continues to move northeastward, or 050/6 kt, but the storm
will be trapped in a weak steering regime for the next couple of
days. The center is likely to move offshore the Georgia coast
later today, but then meander off the coast of South Carolina
through early Thursday. After that time, a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough
over the upper Midwest should cause Debby to move faster toward the
north across the Carolinas and then into the Mid-Atlantic region
late this week. The updated NHC track forecast is a bit west of
the previous forecast starting at about 48 hours, trending in the
direction of the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Little change in Debby's intensity is expected today and tonight as
the center moves offshore. However, some strengthening is forecast
beginning on Wednesday due to the storm being in a low-shear
environment and over very warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius.
The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 50
kt in 48 hours, just before the center reaches the coast again,
which is near the top end of the guidance. Weakening is expected
to begin in 60 hours once the center moves inland. The cyclone is
likely to merge with a front over the eastern United States in 4 to
5 days.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding
impacts from northern North Carolina through portions of
Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England through Sunday
morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and
tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 31.6N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1800Z 31.6N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 07/0600Z 31.7N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 31.9N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 33.1N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 34.1N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 38.5N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0600Z 43.4N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060851
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY'S CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST LATER
TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA,
SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of North Carolina has been
extended northward to Surf City.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located inland over southeastern Georgia near latitude 31.6 North,
longitude 81.6 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A slower motion toward the east and then north is
expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Debby is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia later
today, drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland
over South Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday while
Debby drifts offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. A weather station on Folly Beach, South
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h)
and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the northeastern Florida and
Georgia coasts through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the
tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Altamaha Sound, GA to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches,
bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of southeast
Georgia, the eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 12 inches,
are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river
flooding possible.

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portion of the
Central Florida Peninsula today which may aggravate any ongoing
flooding conditions across that vicinity.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over coastal South Carolina
tonight through early Wednesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060850
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 81.6W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 81.6W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.6N 81.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 79.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.9N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.1N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 34.1N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 38.5N 77.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 43.4N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 81.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, GETTING CLOSER TO THE
COAST...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South
Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
east is expected today, followed by a turn to the north at a
slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and then off the
Georgia coast later today and on Wednesday, and approach the South
Carolina coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible today. Some
re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when
Debby is off the southeastern U.S. coast.

Recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200
miles (320 km) east of the center. A weather station on Tybee
Island, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69
km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A station on Folly Island,
South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67
km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic
coast through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina
beginning Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic
rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30
inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of
eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast
North Carolina through Wednesday. Across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This
rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the
Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding
conditions across that area.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina tonight through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060239
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

The center of Debby has continued to move northeastward over
southeastern Georgia this evening. Earlier in the evening, there
were a few reports of sustained winds of 34-36 kt along portions of
the Georgia coast, which supported the 40-kt intensity on the
intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Although there have not been
reports that high in the past hour or two, the initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt as the strongest winds are likely occuring in
bands offshore.

The initial motion estimate is 050/5 kt. The steering currents are
forecast to weaken further over the next couple of days, and
a slow eastward motion should begin on Tuesday when Debby is near
the Georgia coast. An even slower northward motion is expected on
Wednesday, which should bring the center toward the coast of South
Carolina Wednesday night or Thursday. Toward the end of the week,
most of the track guidance suggests that Debby may begin to move a
little faster toward the north in southerly flow between a
building ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid-level trough
over the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Although there is still
low confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, there is high
confidence that Debby will be meandering near the southeastern U.S.
coast for the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast is
similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model (HCCA) through 72
hours and lies between that model and the simple multi-model
consensus (TVCA) at the longer range.

Debby is likely to weaken a little more while it moves over land
through early Tuesday. After that, the center is forecast to move
offshore, which should allow for some gradual re-intensification.
The NHC intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and
shows only modest strengthening before the center moves back
onshore.

Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large rainfall
amounts are expected over portions of the Southeastern United
States.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts for portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and
tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 31.1N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060238
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 82.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060238
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 82.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South
Carolina from South Santee River to Little River Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South
Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 82.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at
a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across southeastern Georgia tonight, and then off the
Georgia coast Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South
Carolina coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is forecast tonight or early Tuesday. Some
re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby
is off the southeastern U.S. coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic
coast through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic
rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30
inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of
eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast
North Carolina through Wednesday. Across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This
rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the
Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding
conditions across that area.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina tonight through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 052355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South
Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight or
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 82.4 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at a
slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, move
offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday,
and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional weakening is forecast
tonight and Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday
and Thursday when Debby moves off the southeastern U.S. coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic
coast through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
by late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area in South and North
Carolina beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina this evening through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 052048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby continues to move over land, and based on surface synoptic
and radar observations the center is estimated to be near the
Florida/Georgia border. Assuming a continued weakening since
landfall, the intensity estimate has been reduced to 45 kt, which is
reasonably consistent with the latest WSR-88D radar velocities
aloft.

Debby continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical high,
and the forward motion has slowed to about 035/6 kt. The cyclone
is expected to turn eastward, while moving quite slowly, in a
region of weak steering currents for the next couple of days. This
motion should bring the center of the system back over water by
late Tuesday. In around 72 hours, a mid-level ridge to the east
of Debby is forecast to build somewhat, and as a result, the center
should move inland over South Carolina and turn northward and
northeastward over the eastern U.S. for the remainder of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus,
HCCA, guidance.

The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over
land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center
of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is
forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest
restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be
conservative.

Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large amounts
of rainfall over the Southeastern U.S. is anticipated.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the Storm Surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 30.5N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1800Z 31.7N 81.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0600Z 32.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1800Z 33.2N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 35.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 052047
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 82.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 82.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.7N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.6N 79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.2N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.3N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 38.5N 75.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 82.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 052047
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida Gulf Coast from the
Aucilla River to Aripeka is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian
Pass to Aripeka is discontinued.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of South Santee
River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of South Santee
River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South
Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 82.9 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at a
slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, move
offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday,
and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through late
Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic
coast through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
by late tonight or early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina this evening through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 051749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 83.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF LIVE OAK FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Aucilla River westward to Ochlockonee
River is discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka,
including Tampa Bay, Florida, is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Aripeka, Florida is
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka to the Aucilla River
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Indian Pass to Aripeka
* St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual
decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east is expected
later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move
across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore
of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through late
Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast for the
next few hours, and have begun along portions of the tropical storm
warning area along the Atlantic coast. Tropical storm conditions
are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the
tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread
northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the
middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 051455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.

Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.

Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 051454
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 83.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 83.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 051454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF LAKE CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from west of the Ochlockonee River, Florida
to Indian Pass, Florida is discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning from Yankeetown to Indian Pass, Florida is
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Indian Pass, Florida is
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key is
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to the
Ochlockonee River
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Indian Pass to the middle of Longboat Key
* St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east is expected
later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will
move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move
offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An observing station at Live Oak East recently
reported a wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A WeatherFlow site near
the entrance to the St. Johns River in Jacksonville reported a wind
gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) during the last hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast today, and
begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the
Atlantic coast this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm
warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread
northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the
middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 051154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY JUST INLAND IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch from the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood
Florida has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande
* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located
near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Debby is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east
is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center will slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia
today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Debby moves
over land today and tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was reported at
Madison County High School within the last hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will
continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along
the Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions
of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late
tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant
river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread
northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the
middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Since Debby is inland and its Radar appearance has degraded, NHC
has stopped issuing hourly position updates.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 051056
TCUAT4

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and
Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the center of
Hurricane Debby has made landfall around 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC) near
Steinhatchee, Florida in the Florida Big Bend.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure
at landfall was around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds were
estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W of STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 050953
TCUAT4

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
600 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
close to making landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. The
northern and eastern portions of the eyewall are already onshore
and the hurricane will be making landfall later this morning.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum
pressure is around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds are
still estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).

A National Ocean Service Tide station in Cedar Key recently
reported a water level of 4.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water.

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...80 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Alaka


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 050856
TCDAT4

Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

The eyewall of Debby is moving onshore and landfall in the Florida
Big Bend is expected to occur within the next few hours. Doppler
radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the eye of the hurricane
has become a bit more circular and deep convection remains fairly
well organized over the eastern eyewall, and in bands east of the
center that have spread across portions of northern Florida. There
have been numerous reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds,
but the strongest so far is in Horseshoe Beach, where a weather
station recently recorded a sustained wind of 57 kt and a gust to
83 kt. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum winds are likely near 70 kt, and Debby will likely maintain
that intensity or strengthen a little until it reaches the coast.

After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn
northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system
across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through
Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast
U.S. coast late Tuesday and Wednesday before a ridge builds to the
north of the system, which should push it back inland over South
Carolina on Thursday. Although the details of the track forecast
are unknown, there is high confidence that Debby will move slowly
while near or over the southeastern U.S., which will likely result
in catastrophic flooding in some locations. The NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in line with the consensus aids.

Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and Debby
will likely become a tropical storm over northern Florida this
afternoon. If Debby does move back offshore of the southeast U.S.,
there could be a little strengthening before it moves inland once
again. Regardless of the system's strength, the main impact is
expected to be heavy rainfall as mentioned above. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN aids.

NHC has begun issuing hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates, and they
will continue through landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown through the morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for several more
hours farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning area along
Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 29.5N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 050855
TCMAT4

HURRICANE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 83.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande
* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located
near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 83.7 West. Debby is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease
in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is
expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia late today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia
coast by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected after Debby moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the
Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of
the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late
tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant
river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread
northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the
middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 050751
TCUAT4

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY NEARING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
nearing landfall and the eastern portion of the eyewall is moving
onshore in the Florida Big Bend. An observation in Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h)
with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050546
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning on the east coast of Florida has been
extended southward to St. Augustine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande
* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located
near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Debby is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in
forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected
later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will
reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then
expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern
Georgia late today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by
Tuesday night.

Data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida
Big Bend coast later this morning. Weakening is expected after
Debby moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the
Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of
the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late
tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of
6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions
of central and northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina
through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river
flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southern Georgia today. The threat will spread
northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South
Carolina later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the
middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 84.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from
Suwannee River to Yankeetown.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of South Carolina from the
Savannah River to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande has been
discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Englewood has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande
* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Ponte Vedre Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease
in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is
expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is
then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern
Georgia Monday and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by
Tuesday night.

Data from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before
Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is
expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
overnight. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread
northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area late
Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North
Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant
river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will
spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South
Carolina on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 050254
TCMAT4

HURRICANE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 84.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 84.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.8N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.5N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.6N 81.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.7N 80.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 79.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.0N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 84.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042353
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 84.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Bonita Beach
* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 84.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease
in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is
expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and
reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is
then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern
Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is
expected to become a hurricane tonight, with additional
strengthening likely before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast
on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. NOAA Buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds
of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). A wind gust
to 60 mph (96 km/h) has been reported at Sarasota, Florida, within
the past hour and a wind gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) was recently
reported at Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, Florida.

The minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and are possible in the hurricane watch area by early Monday,
with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive later this
evening and overnight. Tropical storm conditions will continue
to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the
Florida Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
South Carolina within the tropical storm watch area late Monday
night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday
morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will
result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will
spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South
Carolina on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON MONDAY...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Saint Mary's River to
South Santee River South Carolina has been changed to a Storm Surge
Warning.

The Hurricane Warning is extended west of the Ochlockonee River to
Indian Pass.

The Tropical Storm Watch from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Florida and Georgia
coast from Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Bonita Beach Florida is
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Bonita Beach
* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.4 West. Debby is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease
in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is
expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and
reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is
then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern
Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to
become a hurricane tonight, with additional strengthening likely
before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening
is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch area early Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical
storm warning area along the Gulf coast through tonight, and begin
along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic
coast by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along
the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm watch area
late Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday
morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will
result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will
spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South
Carolina on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 042052
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Debby's cloud pattern continues to show increasing organization on
satellite images although there is limited deep convection over the
southwest quadrant of the circulation. The upper-level
anticyclonic outflow pattern is well-defined. The latest Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicated that the central
pressure hadn't changed much and the wind data from the aircraft
continued to support an intensity of near 55 kt. WSR-88D radar
imagery shows that an eyewall may be trying to close off, and
another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Debby in a
few hours to assess the strength of the cyclone.

The cyclone has turned toward the north and is now moving at around
360/10 kt. Debby should continue to move through a break in the
subtropical ridge due to a trough over the eastern United States
for the next day or so, and this motion should bring the center of
the system to the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast around midday
tomorrow. Thereafter, the trough moves eastward, leaving Debby in
weak steering currents for a few days. The track guidance shows
decreasing forward speed and a turn to the east in 24-48 hours.
Some of the track models show the cyclone moving temporarily over
the Atlantic in the 72-hour time frame, and so does the official
forecast.

Debby will continue to move over waters of high heat content
and remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear into Monday
morning. Some dry air intrusion over the southwestern portion of
the circulation may have temporarily interrupted the intensification
process. However, given the favorable oceanic and shear
conditions, significant strengthening is expected before landfall.
Rapid intensification is especially likely if Debby acquires a
well-defined inner core. The official intensity forecast is at the
high end of the model guidance. Although weakening will occur
after landfall, the longer-term strength of the system is
largely dependent on how long it remains over land. Currently the
official forecast shows some re-intensification with Debby moving
into the Atlantic, but how much the system will restrengthen is
highly uncertain.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from the Florida Big Bend region
through southeast GA and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through
Friday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued
for portions of these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 27.7N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 29.1N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 31.3N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1800Z 31.7N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1800Z 31.9N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1800Z 32.6N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 042051
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.4W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.4W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.1N 84.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.7N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.9N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 32.6N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 84.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041736
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to
become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical
storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...5-8 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may
result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will
result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 041457
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby
continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite
imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed
with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and
WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form.
The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a
significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft.

The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial
motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or
so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the
northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on
Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are
likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves
eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward
speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in
the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center
over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge
builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the
Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame.

Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical
shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant
strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone
forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the
high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to
become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after
it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the
coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below
tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding
impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and
the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially
historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina
through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the
southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat
Key to Aripeka, Florida including Tampa Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Dry
Tortugas is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Seven
Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 84.3 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is
expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the
Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical
storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may
result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will
result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 041454
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 84.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been extended
northward along the Georgia and South Carolina coast to the South
Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby
is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the
Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently
reported at Sand Key in the Florida Keys.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical
storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next
several hours, in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the
coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through this morning.
This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 040847
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Debby continues to slowly strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center and
in fragmented bands on the system's east side. Some of the outer
bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida, producing tropical-storm-force gusts. The
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm
today, and that data will provide very helpful information to
evaluate Debby's strength and structure.

Debby continues to gradually turn to the right, with the initial
motion now estimated to be north-northwestward at 11 kt. The storm
is currently located on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic
mid-level ridge, and it is headed toward a weakness caused by a mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. This steering pattern
should cause Debby to turn northward and then north-northeastward
during the next day or so, taking the core of the cyclone to the Big
Bend region of Florida early Monday. There is high confidence on
this scenario, and little change has been made to that portion of
the track forecast. While Debby moves across the very warm waters
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind
shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen
rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models
all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of
intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end
of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming
a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall.

After Debby makes landfall in Florida, the system is expected to
slow down and turn northeastward across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday as the steering currents
weaken significantly. There is a lot of model disagreement in
whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the
coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week. But, a
building ridge should cause it to turn northward or northwestward
and likely back inland during the middle and latter portions of the
week. Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of
the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests
that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while
near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially
significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center
will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the
intensity forecast is also of low confidence. For now, little
overall change to the intensity forecast was made, and it shows
Debby remaining a tropical storm while meandering near the southeast
U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning.
Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river
flooding is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within
the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible elsewhere
in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from
Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and
interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 25.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040846
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for
coastal Georgia from the Mouth of St. Mary's River to Altamaha
Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia coast from Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha
Sound

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia coast from the Mouth of St. Mary's River to Altamaha
Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby
is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the
Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently
reported at the Key West Naval Air Station in the Florida Keys.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys
during the next several hours, and in the Florida Panhandle on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall
will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through Sunday morning.
This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 040846
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 84.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 84.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 84.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040532
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 83.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 83.9 West. Debby is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion
toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. The
center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a
hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast.
Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Wind gusts of 45 mph (72 km/h) and 41 mph (67
km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key and the Key West Naval Air
Station in the Florida Keys, respectively.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys
during the next several hours, and in the Florida Panhandle on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown to Suwannee River, FL ...4-7 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum rainfall totals towards 30
inches, across portions of northern Florida and along the Southeast
U.S. coast through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through Sunday morning.
This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula overnight,
expanding across much of northern and central Florida later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 040249
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Debby during the past few hours and have found that
the winds have increased slightly and the central pressure has
fallen. The NOAA P-3 plane reported SFMR measurements of 35-40 kt
east of the center over the Straits of Florida, and dropsonde data
indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt.

Debby is gradually turning toward the right and slowing down, and
the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern United States has created a
break in the subtropical ridge, which will cause Debby to move
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the
Florida Big Bend region over the next day or two. The track
guidance is in good agreement during this period, and the NHC track
has only been shifted slightly east to account for a slight
relocation of the initial position based on the aircraft data.
After 2-3 days, the steering currents around Debby collapse, and
the cyclone is expected to creep northeastward at less than 5 kt
across northern Florida to near the coasts of Georgia and South
Carolina by day 5. While there is model disagreement on exactly
where Debby will end up on day 5, there is high confidence that the
storm will not be moving very fast, and this slow motion will have
major implications for the associated hazards, particularly heavy
rainfall and flooding.

Low vertical shear and very warm waters (as warm as 32 degrees
Celsius within Apalachee Bay) are likely to support additional
strengthening while Debby approaches the Florida Big Bend. The
intensity guidance has increased a bit on this cycle. Most of the
regional hurricane models are showing Debby reaching hurricane
strength before it reaches the coast, while the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models have increased to the
75-80-kt range. In addition, the Rapid Intensification indices are
showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the
next 36 hours. Based on these model data, the NHC intensity
forecast has been increased to 75 kt in 36 hours, just before the
center of Debby is expected to reach the coast. Weakening is
anticipated after landfall, but Debby's intensity on days 3 through
5 is highly uncertain and is dependent on whether the center moves
over the Atlantic waters and for how long.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.4N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 040249
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 83.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040249
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 83.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.6 West. Debby is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a slower motion toward
the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday
night and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. The
center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast,
and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night, before
it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on
Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Wind gusts to 49 mph (80 km/h) and 48 mph (78
km/h) were recently reported at the Key West Naval Air Station and
Key West International Airport, respectively.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1003 mb
(29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
tropical storm warning areas tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys
tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown to Suwannee River, FL ...4-7 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast
U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 032355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE DEBBY...
...SQUALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 83.3 West. Debby is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, followed by a northward turn on Sunday
and a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, reaching
the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected as Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and
the system is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night,
with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late
Sunday or Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL ...4-7 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much
of northern and central Florida on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast
U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 032054
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last
advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective
banding to the north and south of the central region. A
combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in
the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows
an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in
the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical
Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a
break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn
northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed
through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the
northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and
Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly
after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S.
trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward
motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or
northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand,
the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly
northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it
over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track
continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions.

Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico
with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then
proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized
inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement
with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the
system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the
intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility
of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding
is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required tonight or on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 032049
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 83.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 83.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 032049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 83.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast
from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west
of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast
east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect west of the Aucilla River to
Indian Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west
of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee
River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee
River to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* The Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 83.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, followed by a northward turn on
Sunday and a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday,
reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday.

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and ships in the
Straits of Florida indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected as
Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is likely to be at
or near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night,
with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late
Sunday or Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL ...4-7 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much
of northern and central Florida on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast
U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031731
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 82.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown
to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Aripeka northward to the Aucilla River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 82.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast this afternoon,
followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower
northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this
morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today
and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.

Recent satellite wind data and surface observations from the
Florida Keys indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph
(55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected this
afternoon and tonight, and the depression is expected to become a
tropical storm by tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is
expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near
hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations from Cuba and the Florida Keys is 1009 mb (29.80
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida
Panhandle by late Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are
currently occurring over the Florida Keys.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall will
likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban
flooding, with river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along
the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 031442
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Tropical Depression Four has become somewhat better organized this
morning, with the circulation becoming better defined over western
Cuba and curved convective bands forming close to the center in the
southern semicircle. However, the circulation is still somewhat
elongated with multiple low-level vorticity centers rotating around
the mean center. The initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt
based on surface observations in the Florida Keys and a satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The depression appears to be starting its northwestward turn with
the initial motion now 300/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level
trough over the central United States is creating a break in the
subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is expected to turn northward
into this break by 24-36 h. This should be followed by a gradual
turn toward the northeast through 60 h. This motion should bring
the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h.
After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone
to slow down while it moves northeastward over parts of northern
Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases
significantly after 72 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of
the U.S. trough. The current GFS and ECMWF forecast the system to
move into the Atlantic, and then turn back toward the southeastern
U.S. coast by 120 h. On the other hand, the Canadian model moves
the cyclone slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and
does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new
forecast track shows a slower forward motion than the previous track
due to changes in the GFS forecast since the previous advisory.

After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable
for intensification. Due to the lack of internal organization, the
initial intensification is likely to be slow. However, a faster
rate of development is likely once the system gets better
organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane
strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast. Weakening is
forecast after landfall while the system moves over the
southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast
remains quite uncertain due to uncertainty of whether the center
will reach the Atlantic and how much interaction will occur with
the aforementioned mid-latitude trough interaction.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash
and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas
of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday morning. River
flooding is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday in portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast and Big Bend region where a Hurricane Watch is in
effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along
Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and in the Dry
Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the west coast of Florida from Aripeka to the
Aucilla River. Life-threatening storm surge is possible west of
Aucilla River to Indian Pass and south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.8N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 24.3N 83.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 26.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 30.7N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031441
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west of
the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the coast of Florida
from Aripeka to the mouth of the Aucilla River.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the coast of Florida west
of the mouth of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown
to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Aripeka northward to the Aucilla River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 82.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed
by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward
motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and
then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday,
reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected today and tonight, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A
faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and
the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the
Florida Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations from Cuba is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida
Panhandle by late Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are
currently occurring over the Florida Keys.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall will
likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban
flooding, with river flooding expected.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along
the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 031441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 82.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 82.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 81.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.3N 83.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.3N 84.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.2N 84.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.7N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 31.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031131
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION PASSING OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 81.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown
to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph
(26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed
by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward
motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and
then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday,
reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations from Cuba is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida
Panhandle by late Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chassahowitzka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall may
result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
with isolated river flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along
the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 030900
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Small bursts of deep convection have continued near the estimated
center of the depression, with some skeletal convective bands over
the outer portions of the circulation. Earlier scatterometer data
revealed the strongest winds were occurring to the south and east of
the center, offshore of the southern coast of Cuba. The overall
organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little overnight,
and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier
scatterometer winds and recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The estimated motion of the depression is still west-northwestward
at about 14 kt. The influence of an upper-level trough over the
eastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward
and then northward this weekend as it moves toward a break in the
subtropical ridge. This motion will bring the system across western
Cuba this morning, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and
toward the Florida Big Bend region on Sunday and Sunday night. There
is reasonably good confidence in this portion of the track forecast,
and only slight westward adjustments were made to the NHC prediction
based on the latest track consensus aids. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia.
Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is
unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead
of an upper trough (GFS) or get left behind and meander over
the southeastern U.S. or near the coast (ECMWF).

After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable
for intensification. The latest NHC forecast shows the cyclone
becoming a tropical storm by tonight, with additional strengthening
expected while it moves across deep warm waters in a weak shear
environment. The regional hurricane models and statistical guidance
continue to indicate some potential for the system to reach
hurricane strength before it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region. Although the latest NHC forecast does not explicitly show
the cyclone becoming a hurricane, note that additional strengthening
could occur between 48-60 h. Weakening is forecast after landfall
while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond
day 3, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain and highly
dependent on whether the center stays inland or emerges off the
Atlantic coast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river
flooding will also be possible.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central
Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are
possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay
area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 22.0N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030857
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 80.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM SSE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Aucilla River to Yankeetown,
Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the Suwannee
River to Aucilla River, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
west coast of the Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to south of
Yankeetown, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Aucilla River to
the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Channel 5
Bridge has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Florida
peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown
to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 80.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a
northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion
Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the
Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle
by late Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chassahowitzka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall may
result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
with isolated river flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along
the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 030856
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 80.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 80.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 80.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 80.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca
Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to
the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 80.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a
slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
move across Cuba this morning, and then move generally northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, potentially
reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida
peninsula later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast tonight and
Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft
Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in
areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
isolated river flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 030250
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface
observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the
disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is
located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still
a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the
estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and
pressure field could still be a little elongated within the
southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough
organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations.

The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is
west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the
subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United
States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has
caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC
forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern
edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that
because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of
Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be
pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the
forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned
trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a
much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably
slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5.

The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the
system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the
SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the
cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big
Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC
forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is
reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that
future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a
hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more
uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves
back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river
flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape
Sable to Boca Grande and on the Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the remainder of the Florida Keys on
Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to
Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER CUBA
24H 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 030249
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 79.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030249
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca
Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to
the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday,
followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast
on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then
move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday
or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and
continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west
coast Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft
Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in
areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
isolated river flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through Saturday. This may result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022346
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
ACROSS CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 78.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca
Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to
the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a
portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits
of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and
then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night
through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical
depression tonight or on Saturday while over Cuba or the Straits
of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands indicate that
the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west
coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to
12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may
result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river
flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 2...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Updated to include the Storm Surge Watch in the summary block

...DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING OVER CENTRAL CUBA...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 78.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach to Boca
Grande.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the west
coast of the Florida peninsula from Aripeka to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to
Boca Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to
the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a
portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits
of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and
then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night
through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression
on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by
intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west
coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to
12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may
result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river
flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 022036
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over
central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However,
the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is
not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a
tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical
cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently
investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of
its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the
maximum winds remain near 25 kt.

The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous
advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A
turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the
Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,
followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night
and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern
Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of
the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward,
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas
receive the strongest impacts.

There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the
previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is
over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression
soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the
Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear
and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady
strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the
intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of
Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is
likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification
likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this
weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also
be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape
Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of
Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later tonight and on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING OVER CENTRAL CUBA...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 78.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach to Boca
Grande.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the west
coast of the Florida peninsula from Aripeka to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to
Boca Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to
the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a
portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits
of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and
then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night
through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression
on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by
intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west
coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to
12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may
result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river
flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in
isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 022035
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 78.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 78.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W...NEAT COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 78.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021732
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING EASTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 77.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to
Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to
Aripeka

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be
required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits
of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of
Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical
depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida,
followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west
coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft
Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to
12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could
result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river
flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 021459
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days
is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to
the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds
are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface
observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development
once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are
initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves
into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature
into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near
the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that
time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and
move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with
this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel
to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast
of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large
changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest
impacts.

Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the
system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it
moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite
favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm
sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is
expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast
are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how
long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken
as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the
Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday
morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita
Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along
the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday
night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of
Florida over the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 021456
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 76.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 76.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast
of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south
of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern
coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card
Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north
of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to
Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to
Aripeka

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be
required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross
the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the
west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on
Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by
intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west
coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft
Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to
12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could
result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river
flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven