Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUD-24 Off-shore from 24 Jul 2024 21:00 UTC to 26 Jul 2024 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUD-24

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

27/07 04:11 WTNT80EGRR270411

27/07 04:11 WTNT82EGRR270411

26/07 21:02 WTPN31PHNC262200

26/07 20:39 WTPZ42KNHC262036

26/07 20:37 WTPZ22KNHC262035

26/07 20:37 WTPZ32KNHC262036

26/07 16:12 WTNT82EGRR261612

26/07 14:54 WTPN31PHNC261600

26/07 14:36 WTPZ42KNHC261433

26/07 14:34 WTPZ22KNHC261433

26/07 14:34 WTPZ32KNHC261433

26/07 09:35 WTPN31PHNC261000

26/07 08:38 WTPZ42KNHC260836

26/07 08:37 WTPZ32KNHC260835

26/07 08:36 WTPZ22KNHC260835

26/07 02:57 WTPN31PHNC260400

26/07 02:37 WTPZ42KNHC260235

26/07 02:36 WTPZ32KNHC260234

26/07 02:35 WTPZ22KNHC260234

25/07 21:06 WTPN31PHNC252200

25/07 20:37 WTPZ42KNHC252035

25/07 20:36 WTPZ32KNHC252034

25/07 20:36 WTPZ22KNHC252034

25/07 16:13 WTNT80EGRR251612

25/07 14:43 WTPN31PHNC251600

25/07 14:34 WTPZ42KNHC251432

25/07 14:33 WTPZ32KNHC251431

25/07 14:32 WTPZ22KNHC251431

25/07 11:29 WTPZ42KNHC251128

25/07 11:28 WTPZ22KNHC251126

25/07 11:28 WTPZ32KNHC251127

25/07 09:11 WTPN31PHNC251000

25/07 08:37 WTPZ42KNHC250834

25/07 08:35 WTPZ22KNHC250833

25/07 08:35 WTPZ32KNHC250833

25/07 03:07 WTPN31PHNC250400

25/07 02:38 WTPZ42KNHC250236

25/07 02:35 WTPZ32KNHC250234

25/07 02:35 WTPZ22KNHC250233

24/07 21:18 WTPN31PHNC242200

24/07 20:35 WTPZ42KNHC242033

24/07 20:33 WTPZ22KNHC242031

24/07 20:33 WTPZ32KNHC242032

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.07.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 120.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.07.2024 19.0N 120.8W WEAK
12UTC 27.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 35.3N 72.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2024 35.5N 71.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.07.2024 36.5N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2024 39.0N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2024 40.5N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2024 42.0N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2024 44.1N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270411

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.07.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 120.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.07.2024 0 19.0N 120.8W 1009 19
1200UTC 27.07.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 35.3N 72.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2024 24 35.5N 71.5W 1008 41
1200UTC 28.07.2024 36 36.5N 69.6W 1007 37
0000UTC 29.07.2024 48 39.0N 69.4W 1006 37
1200UTC 29.07.2024 60 40.5N 70.5W 1006 33
0000UTC 30.07.2024 72 42.0N 70.1W 1008 28
1200UTC 30.07.2024 84 44.1N 68.6W 1011 25
0000UTC 31.07.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270411

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCONE 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCONE 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 120.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 120.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.1N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.9N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
262200Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 120.7W.
26JUL24. POST-TROPICAL CYCONE 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 826
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
261800Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 9
FEET.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 262036
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Bud has failed to produce any organized deep convection near its
low-level center during the last 18 hours or so. Therefore, it no
longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and Bud is
being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. The
intensity estimate is a little uncertain because of the lack of
recent scatterometer data, but subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are around 25-32 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory.

Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward
for the remainder of today. Over the weekend, the post-tropical low
and its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level
trade wind flow. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow
cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable
environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could
occur during the next couple of days, this should not stop the
overall weakening trend.

This is the last NHC advisory on Bud. For additional information on
the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 262035
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 120.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 262036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...BUD BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 120.5W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 120.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the
rest of today. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have weakened to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and the system is
forecast to dissipate by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.07.2024

TROPICAL STORM BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 119.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2024 0 18.6N 119.3W 1009 21
0000UTC 27.07.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 35.2N 73.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2024 24 35.2N 73.1W 1014 30
0000UTC 28.07.2024 36 35.3N 71.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 28.07.2024 48 36.6N 68.6W 1010 33
0000UTC 29.07.2024 60 38.6N 68.2W 1006 40
1200UTC 29.07.2024 72 40.3N 69.1W 1005 41
0000UTC 30.07.2024 84 42.3N 68.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 30.07.2024 96 44.2N 67.7W 1012 23
0000UTC 31.07.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261611

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 119.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 119.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.2N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.0N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.6N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.2N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 119.8W.
26JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 261433
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03
UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18
satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection
soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone
later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous.

Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do
not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some
intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the
next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive
for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward.
The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical
remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current
trends continue.

The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Bud is being steered along the
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system
should move generally westward today. As we move into the weekend,
Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level
trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the
previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 261433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.6W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.6W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 261433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...BUD STRUGGLING THIS MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 119.6W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 119.6 West. Bud is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A slower
west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low
later today and dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 118.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 118.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.9N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.9N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.7N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.0N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 119.0W.
26JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 843 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260836
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Bud is currently only generating isolated patches of deep
convection to the south and southwest of the center. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
continued to decrease and are now in the 30-40 kt range. Using
these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat
uncertain 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/9 kt. Bud is on the south side of a
low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer
the cyclone generally westward today. After that, Bud or its
remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind
flow. The guidance again has nudged to the north of the previous
guidance, and the new forecast track is thus also nudged northward.

While it is possible there could be one more convective flare-up
this morning, all of the guidance indicates that Bud should
continue to weaken due to moving over cooler sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable air mass. Based on this, the
new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken to a depression
later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 24 h.
The remnant low is forecast to dissipated between 60-72 h based on
the global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...BUD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 118.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 118.9 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A slower
west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bud is
expected to become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday and
dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260835
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 117.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 117.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.8N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.8N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.7N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 118.1W.
26JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 852 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260235
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Deep convection associated with Bud has collapsed this evening. The
infrared cloud tops have warmed over the center, which is now
partially exposed due to the thinning central overcast. As a result,
the latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased. The initial
intensity is lowered to 45 kt, in best agreement with a T-3.0/45 kt
Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB.

Bud is moving westward at 11 kt, to the south of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through
Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest at a slightly
slower forward speed this weekend as the shallow cyclone becomes
steered by the low-level flow. Once again, the NHC forecast has been
nudged slightly north of the previous prediction based on the latest
track aids.

Despite weak vertical wind shear, Bud is expected to weaken over the
next couple of days while moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into
a drier and more stable environment. All of the dynamical and
statistical models show weakening during the next couple of days,
and the latest NHC forecast closely follows the latest multi-model
consensus aids. The post-tropical transition and dissipation of Bud
could occur even sooner than forecast if the system is unable to
sustain more organized deep convection going forward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 18.6N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...BUD LOSES ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 117.9W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 117.9 West. Bud is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slower
west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bud is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 116.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 116.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.7N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.4N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.1N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 117.2W.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its
intensity. The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the
past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes
indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central
convective area. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this
advisory.

A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the
cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next
24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn
towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The new NHC forecast
has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west,
following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still
to the southeast of the latest consensus models.

As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the
next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively
low. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable
airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by
tonight or on Friday. No significant changes have been made to the
previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the
intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and
below the stronger statistical guidance. Bud is forecast to become
a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 252034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...BUD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 117.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 117.0 West. Bud is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the west-southwest
at a slower forward speed is expected Friday night into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Friday, and Bud is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 252034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
2100 UTC THU JUL 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.07.2024

TROPICAL STORM BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2024 18.0N 115.0W WEAK
00UTC 26.07.2024 18.4N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2024 18.3N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.1N 71.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2024 36.1N 71.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.07.2024 37.8N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2024 38.6N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2024 41.6N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251612

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.6N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.4N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.2N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 115.8W.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 251432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning,
the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much.
The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone
appears to have diminished slightly. This has allowed the
low-level center to be located underneath the central convective
area. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt,
while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates
have also been around 45 kt. Given the 49-kt surface observation
from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is
held at 50 kt for this advisory.

There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic
steering pattern. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north
of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar
forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and
becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and
decelerate. The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with
this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway
between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track
aids.

As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface
temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is
slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently.
The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next
couple of days. Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier
airmass. The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken
Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the
NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity
consensus. This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer. Given
that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather
quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the
intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the
first 48 h of the forecast. After that time, confidence is higher
that the cyclone will be significantly weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...BUD MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a slower
west-southwestward motion late Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight or Friday, with
faster weakening expected Friday night. Bud is forecast to
dissipate Saturday night or early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 251431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 251128
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla
Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004
mb as Bud passed to the south of the station. Given that ASCAT
from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the
observations from the island are consistent.

The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast
wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial
intensity. The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the
gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated
in the Forecast/Advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 251126
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.0W AT 25/1130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.0W AT 25/1130Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251127
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 430 AM PDT...1130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 115.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 430 AM PDT (1130 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower
southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night.

Recent surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is
expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system
is forecast to dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion
recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust
of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 113.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 113.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.1N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.2N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.7N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 114.5W.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 912 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250834
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with
the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep
convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40
kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest
convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased
to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent
satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt.

The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The
cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves
along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico.
Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as
the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the
last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as
well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus
models.

Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to
prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is
forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after
12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level
convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to
keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated
satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or
less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity
forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a
depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with
global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 114.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 114.3 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower
southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected
to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is
forecast to dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion
recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.8N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.9N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.3N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.6N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 113.5W.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 947 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 1007 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250236
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024

Bud is a sheared tropical storm. The surface center lies near the
eastern edge of the coldest cloud tops associated with recent bursts
of deep convection. The sharp edge to the cloud tops indicates that
easterly shear is restricting the upper-level outflow over the
eastern portion of the circulation. TAFB provided a T-2.5/35 kt
subjective Dvorak estimate, which is consistent with the objective
satellite intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data.
Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The effects of moderate shear and some drier air in the surrounding
environment could make it difficult for Bud to become better
organized in the near term. While some slight strengthening cannot
be ruled out given the small size of the storm, all of the dynamical
intensity models show a weakening trend during the next couple of
days. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models
suggest Bud could struggle to produce organized convection by late
Thursday. The latest NHC forecast calls for Bud to become a
post-tropical remnant low in 36 h and dissipate on Saturday.

Bud is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. The storm should turn
westward over the next day or so as it moves along the southern
periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the system
weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex
becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. No significant
changes were made to the official NHC forecast for this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 17.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 16.6N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024

...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 113.3W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.3 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a
slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with
weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to
dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 111.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 111.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.8N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.7N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.3N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 112.4W.
24JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 242033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become much better organized over the past
12 hours or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and a pair of recent ASCAT passes shows
a well-defined cyclone with 35-kt winds. Based on the ASCAT data
and the improvement in convective organization observed on GOES-18
satellite images, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm
Bud.

Bud is currently moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the north of Bud will cause a gradual turn to the west over
the next day. On Friday, with Bud likely weakening, the cyclone
should turn to the southwest and decelerate, following the low-level
flow.

Bud is currently in an environment that appears favorable in terms
of warm SSTs and a moderately moist environment, but there appears
to be some easterly shear affecting the cyclone. Therefore, no
change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
although some slight intensification cannot be ruled out. Beyond
36 h, the cyclone should begin traversing decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and move into an environment of drier air and
increasing vertical wind shear. Therefore, gradual weakening is
forecast during that time. The intensity forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope and calls for the cyclone to
become a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 242031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 242032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 112.2W
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
turn to the west is expected tonight or early Thursday. A slower
motion toward the southwest is expected by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with steady
weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to
dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

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