Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GAEMI-24
in Japan, Taiwan, China, Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TD LOCATED AT 30N 115E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
GAEMI (2403) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED ON
LAND AT 30N, 115E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 30N 115E
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 30.4N 114.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 31.3N 114.4E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 280900UTC 32.4N 113.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 30.0N, 115.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 30.0N 115.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 271800UTC 31.1N 114.5E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 280600UTC 32.3N 113.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 996 HPA
AT 30.0N 115.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 31.1N 114.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 32.3N 113.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 29.6N 115.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 271500UTC 30.4N 114.9E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 280300UTC 31.7N 114.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 29.2N, 115.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 29.2N 115.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271200UTC 30.2N 115.0E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 280000UTC 31.5N 114.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 996 HPA
AT 29.2N 115.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 30.2N 115.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 31.5N 114.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 29.1N 116.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270900UTC 30.0N 114.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 272100UTC 31.4N 114.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 28.7N, 116.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 28.7N 116.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270600UTC 29.8N 115.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 271800UTC 31.1N 114.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 992 HPA
AT 28.7N 116.7E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 29.8N 115.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 31.1N 114.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 28.5N 116.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270300UTC 29.7N 116.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 271500UTC 31.6N 115.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 281200UTC 33.0N 113.9E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 28.3N, 117.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 28.3N 117.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 425NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270000UTC 28.9N 116.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 271200UTC 30.9N 114.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 281200UTC 33.0N 113.9E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 990 HPA
AT 28.3N 117.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 28.9N 116.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 30.9N 114.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 33.0N 113.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 27.9N 117.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 262100UTC 29.0N 116.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 270900UTC 30.3N 115.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 280600UTC 32.3N 113.3E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 27.8N, 118.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 27.8N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261800UTC 28.8N 116.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 270600UTC 30.1N 115.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 280600UTC 32.3N 113.3E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 985 HPA
AT 27.8N 118.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 28.8N 116.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 30.1N 115.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 32.3N 113.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 26.6N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 400NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 261500UTC 28.0N 117.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 270300UTC 29.3N 115.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 280000UTC 31.7N 113.6E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 260145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 260000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (2403) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 25.9N, 118.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 25.9N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 400NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 27.3N 117.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 270000UTC 28.7N 116.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 280000UTC 31.7N 113.6E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 985 HPA
AT 25.9N 118.5E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 27.3N 117.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 28.7N 116.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 31.7N 113.6E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 980 HPA
AT 25.6N 118.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 27.5N 117.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 28.7N 116.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 25.6N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 260900UTC 27.5N 117.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 262100UTC 28.7N 116.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 271800UTC 31.8N 114.2E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 25.5N, 118.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 25.5N 118.7E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 260600UTC 27.3N 117.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 261800UTC 28.8N 116.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 271800UTC 31.8N 114.2E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 980 HPA
AT 25.5N 118.7E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 27.3N 117.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 28.8N 116.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 31.8N 114.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 975 HPA
AT 25.5N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 27.1N 117.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 28.2N 116.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 25.5N 118.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 27.1N 117.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 261500UTC 28.2N 116.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 271200UTC 29.7N 114.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 281200UTC 32.6N 112.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 25.6N 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.7N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.1N 117.2E
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240725132139
2024072512 05W GAEMI 024 01 320 05 SATL 060
T000 256N 1194E 050 R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 190 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 267N 1184E 040 R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 281N 1172E 030
T036 293N 1163E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 25.6N 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.7N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.3N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 119.1E.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 05W AS HAVING MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA WITH INCREASINGLY DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. CONVECTIVE BANDING IS NO LONGER WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IT IS NOW DRIFTING OFF WESTWARD
DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION WEAKENING THE VORTEX RAPIDLY. 05W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DISSIPATES
OVER LAND. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 36, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 20 FEET.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072418 248N1214E 95
0524072418 248N1214E 95
0524072418 248N1214E 95
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072506 252N1198E 60
0524072506 252N1198E 60
0524072512 256N1194E 50
0524072512 256N1194E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 25.3N, 119.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 25.3N 119.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 26.7N 118.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 261200UTC 27.9N 116.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 271200UTC 29.7N 114.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 281200UTC 32.6N 112.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 975 HPA
AT 25.3N 119.1E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 26.7N 118.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 27.9N 116.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 29.7N 114.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 32.6N 112.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 975 HPA
AT 25.4N 119.7E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 26.3N 118.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 27.8N 117.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 25.4N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 26.3N 118.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 260900UTC 27.8N 117.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 270600UTC 29.4N 115.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 280600UTC 31.2N 112.7E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240725073021
2024072506 05W GAEMI 023 01 285 04 SATL 030
T000 252N 1198E 060 R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 190 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 260N 1187E 045 R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 274N 1175E 035 R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 286N 1164E 025
T048 301N 1152E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 30.1N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 119.5E.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072418 248N1214E 95
0524072418 248N1214E 95
0524072418 248N1214E 95
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072506 252N1198E 60
0524072506 252N1198E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 30.1N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 119.5E.
25JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 25.5N, 119.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 25.5N 119.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 25.9N 118.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 260600UTC 27.6N 117.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 270600UTC 29.4N 115.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 280600UTC 31.2N 112.7E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 25.5N 119.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 25.9N 118.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 27.6N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 29.4N 115.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 31.2N 112.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 25.4N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 25.7N 118.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 260300UTC 27.6N 117.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270000UTC 29.2N 115.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 280000UTC 31.4N 113.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 970 HPA
AT 25.4N 119.9E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 25.7N 118.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 27.6N 117.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.6N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240725011034
2024072500 05W GAEMI 022 01 290 12 SATL RADR 030
T000 251N 1202E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 256N 1186E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 270N 1175E 045 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 285N 1163E 030
T048 299N 1154E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.6N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.0N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.5N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.9N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 119.8E.
25JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM WEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072418 247N1214E 95
0524072418 247N1214E 95
0524072418 247N1214E 95
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072500 251N1202E 75
0524072500 251N1202E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SHARPLY TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND
BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 25.3N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 25.3N 119.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 260000UTC 27.2N 118.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 270000UTC 29.2N 115.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 280000UTC 31.4N 113.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 970 HPA
AT 25.3N 120.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 25.3N 119.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 27.2N 118.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 29.2N 115.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 31.4N 113.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 242245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 242100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N) ONE TWO
ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 120.9E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 25.3N 119.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 26.8N 118.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 25.0N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 25.3N 119.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 252100UTC 26.8N 118.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 261800UTC 28.5N 115.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 271800UTC 29.3N 112.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 24.7N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.4N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240724192406
2024072418 05W GAEMI 021 01 345 10 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 247N 1214E 095 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 254N 1200E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 265N 1186E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 280N 1172E 035
T048 298N 1159E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 24.7N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.4N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 29.8N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 121.0E.
24JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072418 247N1214E 95
0524072418 247N1214E 95
0524072418 247N1214E 95
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 24.7N, 121.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND
THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 24.7N 121.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 25.3N 119.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 251800UTC 26.3N 118.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261800UTC 28.5N 115.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 271800UTC 29.3N 112.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 24.7N 121.4E TAIWAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 25.3N 119.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 26.3N 118.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 28.5N 115.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 29.3N 112.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 390 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 955 HPA
AT 24.1N 121.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 25.5N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 26.1N 118.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 24.1N 121.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250300UTC 25.5N 120.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 251500UTC 26.1N 118.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261200UTC 28.7N 116.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 271200UTC 30.5N 113.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240724135202
2024072412 05W GAEMI 020 01 235 09 SATL RADR 015
T000 237N 1217E 110 R064 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 160 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 275 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 249N 1205E 080 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 254N 1190E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 265N 1175E 050 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 277N 1161E 040
T072 305N 1136E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 23.7N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.5N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.5N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 121.4E.
24JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 928 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
0524072412 237N1217E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 23.7N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.5N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.5N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 121.4E.
24JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 928 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 121.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT TAIWAN
ISLAND SOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 23.4N 121.6E GOOD
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250000UTC 25.5N 120.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 251200UTC 25.9N 119.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261200UTC 28.7N 116.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 271200UTC 30.5N 113.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 950 HPA
AT 23.4N 121.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.5N 120.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 25.9N 119.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 28.7N 116.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 30.5N 113.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 940 HPA
AT 24.2N 122.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 25.1N 121.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 25.9N 119.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 24.2N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 242100UTC 25.1N 121.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 250900UTC 25.9N 119.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 260600UTC 27.8N 117.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 270600UTC 30.0N 114.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 280600UTC 31.1N 113.2E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240724072543
2024072406 05W GAEMI 019 01 315 10 SATL RADR 015
T000 242N 1225E 125 R064 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 251N 1213E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 258N 1199E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 268N 1185E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 282N 1173E 040 R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 310N 1150E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.2N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 31.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 122.2E.
24JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
240600Z IS 919 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072318 229N1236E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
0524072406 242N1225E 125
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 122.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 24.2N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 241800UTC 25.1N 121.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 250600UTC 25.9N 120.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 260600UTC 27.8N 117.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270600UTC 30.0N 114.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 280600UTC 31.1N 113.2E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 940 HPA
AT 24.2N 122.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 25.1N 121.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 25.9N 120.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 27.8N 117.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 30.0N 114.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 31.1N 113.2E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240300 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 270 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (30.5 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 945 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 24.5N 121.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 25.6N 120.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 23.9N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 241500UTC 24.5N 121.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 250300UTC 25.6N 120.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 260000UTC 27.3N 117.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 270000UTC 30.3N 115.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 280000UTC 33.4N 113.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240724005303
2024072400 05W GAEMI 018 02 345 07 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 235N
1233E 120 R064 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 135 NE QD
175 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 265 NE QD 245 SE QD 225 SW QD 175
NW QD
T012 244N 1222E 125 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW
QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE
QD 230 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 253N 1209E 105 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD
020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 260N 1194E 080 R064 020
NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW
QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 270N
1180E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD
200 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 295N 1159E 035
T096 321N 1141E
010
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI)
WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR
23.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER
LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS
145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT
WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 123.3E
---

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.4N 122.2E
MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR
POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z ---
25.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND
RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT
WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS,
VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080
KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS
OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08
KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z ---
27.0N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND
RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:

270000Z --- 29.5N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045
KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330
DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID
AT:
280000Z --- 32.1N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT,
GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z
POSITION NEAR 23.7N 123.0E.
24JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E
15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906
125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012
162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112
168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206
181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218
191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306
208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312
219N1245E 95
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120
0524072400
235N1233E 120
0524072400 235N1233E 120


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 270 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 123.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE EYE IN ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 23.4N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 241200UTC 24.1N 122.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 250000UTC 25.4N 120.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260000UTC 27.3N 117.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 270000UTC 30.3N 115.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 280000UTC 33.4N 113.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 945 HPA
AT 23.4N 123.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 24.1N 122.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.4N 120.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 27.3N 117.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 30.3N 115.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 33.4N 113.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 232100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 31.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 123.2E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS
948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04W (PRAPIROON) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) PREVIOUSLY
REFERRED TO AS SUPER TYPHOON BUT DOES NOT HAVE AN INTENSITY GREATER
THAN 130KTS.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 232100 COR
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240723233033
2024072318 05W GAEMI 017A 02 315 13 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 228N 1235E 120 R064 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 205 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 240N 1222E 130 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 248N 1209E 105 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 252N 1202E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 263N 1182E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 260 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 286N 1154E 040
T096 310N 1133E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 31.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 123.2E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072318 228N1235E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 232245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 232100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 950 HPA
AT 23.1N 123.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 24.3N 121.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 25.1N 120.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 23.1N 123.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240900UTC 24.3N 121.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 242100UTC 25.1N 120.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251800UTC 26.0N 118.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 261800UTC 28.9N 115.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 271800UTC 31.2N 113.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240723194415
2024072318 05W GAEMI 018 02 315 13 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 228N 1235E 120 R064 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 205 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 240N 1222E 130 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 248N 1209E 105 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 252N 1202E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 263N 1182E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 260 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 286N 1154E 040
T096 310N 1133E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 31.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 123.2E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072318 228N1235E 120
0524072318 228N1235E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231945 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 123.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND
BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 22.8N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240600UTC 24.1N 122.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 241800UTC 24.9N 121.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 251800UTC 26.0N 118.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 261800UTC 28.9N 115.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 271800UTC 31.2N 113.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 950 HPA
AT 22.8N 123.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 24.1N 122.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 24.9N 121.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 26.0N 118.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 28.9N 115.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 31.2N 113.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 22.4N 124.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 23.9N 122.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 24.3N 121.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 22.4N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240300UTC 23.9N 122.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 241500UTC 24.3N 121.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 251200UTC 25.7N 118.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 261200UTC 28.0N 115.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 271200UTC 29.4N 113.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240723133902
2024072312 05W GAEMI 016 02 330 13 SATL 025
T000 219N 1245E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 235N 1233E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 245N 1218E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 251N 1205E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 260N 1191E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 279N 1170E 040
T096 297N 1154E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.5N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.9N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.7N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 124.2E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
231200Z IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (PRAPIROON) FINAL WARNING
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072306 208N1252E 90
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
0524072312 219N1245E 95
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 22.0N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON GAEMI (2403) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 22.0N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240000UTC 23.7N 123.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 241200UTC 24.2N 121.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 251200UTC 25.7N 118.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 261200UTC 28.0N 115.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 271200UTC 29.4N 113.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 22.0N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.7N 123.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 24.2N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 25.7N 118.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 28.0N 115.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 29.4N 113.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 21.3N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 24.4N 122.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 21.3N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 24.4N 122.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 250600UTC 25.5N 119.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 260600UTC 27.2N 117.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 270600UTC 29.5N 114.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 280600UTC 32.9N 111.9E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240723075020
2024072306 05W GAEMI 015 02 005 09 SATL 030
T000 206N 1251E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 224N 1243E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 220 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 239N 1228E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 246N 1214E 095 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 253N 1200E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 270N 1178E 045 R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 288N 1160E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.9N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.0N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.8N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 124.9E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z
IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072212 185N1253E 60
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072218 191N1250E 70
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072300 197N1250E 80
0524072306 206N1251E 90
0524072306 206N1251E 90
0524072306 206N1251E 90
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 20.7N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 20.7N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 24.3N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 250600UTC 25.5N 119.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 260600UTC 27.2N 117.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 270600UTC 29.5N 114.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 280600UTC 32.9N 111.9E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 20.7N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 24.3N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 25.5N 119.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 27.2N 117.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 29.5N 114.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 32.9N 111.9E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 19.8N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 23.8N 123.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 250000UTC 25.4N 120.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 260000UTC 26.5N 117.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 270000UTC 29.5N 116.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 280000UTC 32.8N 115.1E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 19.8N 124.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 23.8N 123.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.5N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.4N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.7N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 124.8E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 973
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 04W (PRAPIROON) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240723015540
2024072300 05W GAEMI 014 02 005 16 SATL 030
T000 200N 1249E 080 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 219N 1244E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 235N 1233E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 245N 1219E 090 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 254N 1204E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 268N 1177E 045 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 287N 1160E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.5N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.4N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.7N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 124.8E.
23JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 184N1253E 60
0524072212 184N1253E 60
0524072218 184N1248E 70
0524072218 184N1248E 70
0524072218 184N1248E 70
0524072300 200N1249E 80
0524072300 200N1249E 80
0524072300 200N1249E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
TAIWAN ISLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 19.6N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 23.5N 123.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 250000UTC 25.4N 120.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260000UTC 26.5N 117.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 270000UTC 29.5N 116.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 280000UTC 32.8N 115.1E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 19.6N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.5N 123.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.4N 120.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 26.5N 117.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 29.5N 116.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 32.8N 115.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 19.1N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 23.0N 123.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 19.1N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 23.0N 123.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 241800UTC 24.8N 121.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 251800UTC 25.7N 118.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 261800UTC 28.9N 117.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 271800UTC 31.7N 115.1E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240722200450
2024072218 05W GAEMI 013 02 270 05 SATL 060
T000 184N 1248E 070 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 200N 1245E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 218N 1238E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 231N 1224E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 240N 1209E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 255N 1181E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 277N 1161E 035 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 303N 1144E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.0N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.5N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 27.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 30.3N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 124.7E.
22JUL24. TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072206 181N1255E 55
0524072212 184N1253E 60
0524072212 184N1253E 60
0524072218 184N1248E 70
0524072218 184N1248E 70
0524072218 184N1248E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 125.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EXPANSION
OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 18.6N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 22.7N 124.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 241800UTC 24.8N 121.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 251800UTC 25.7N 118.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 261800UTC 28.9N 117.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 271800UTC 31.7N 115.1E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 18.6N 125.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 22.7N 124.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 24.8N 121.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 25.7N 118.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 28.9N 117.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 31.7N 115.1E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 18.4N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 22.0N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 241200UTC 24.6N 122.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 251200UTC 25.6N 119.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 261200UTC 28.4N 116.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 271200UTC 30.4N 115.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 18.4N 125.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 22.0N 124.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 18.3N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION
OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240722132641
2024072212 05W GAEMI 012 02 305 03 SATL 030
T000 184N 1254E 060 R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 105 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 197N 1251E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 215N 1248E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 234N 1238E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 245N 1225E 090 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 260N 1196E 060 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 284N 1174E 035 R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 313N 1157E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.5N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.4N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.0N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.4N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.3N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 125.3E.
22JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 182N1257E 55
0524072206 182N1257E 55
0524072212 184N1254E 60
0524072212 184N1254E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 18.3N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 21.5N 124.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241200UTC 24.6N 122.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 251200UTC 25.6N 119.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 261200UTC 28.4N 116.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 271200UTC 30.4N 115.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 965 HPA
AT 18.3N 125.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.5N 124.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 24.6N 122.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 25.6N 119.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 28.4N 116.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 30.4N 115.2E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 970 HPA
AT 18.1N 125.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 21.0N 125.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 18.1N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 21.0N 125.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 240600UTC 23.9N 123.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 250600UTC 25.5N 120.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 260600UTC 27.3N 117.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 270600UTC 29.7N 115.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.1N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 31.0N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 125.7E.
22JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240722072119
2024072206 05W GAEMI 011 02 350 05 SATL 030
T000 182N 1257E 055 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 193N 1255E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 208N 1253E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 226N 1246E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 241N 1235E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 259N 1206E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 278N 1183E 045 R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 310N 1163E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.1N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 31.0N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 125.7E.
22JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072118 171N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072200 177N1258E 50
0524072206 182N1257E 55
0524072206 182N1257E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 125.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 17.6N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 20.5N 125.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 240600UTC 23.9N 123.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 250600UTC 25.5N 120.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 260600UTC 27.3N 117.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 270600UTC 29.7N 115.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 970 HPA
AT 17.6N 125.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.5N 125.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 23.9N 123.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 25.5N 120.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 27.3N 117.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 29.7N 115.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) 980 HPA
AT 17.5N 125.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 20.0N 125.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 17.5N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 20.0N 125.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 240000UTC 23.3N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 250000UTC 25.4N 120.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 260000UTC 26.6N 118.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 270000UTC 29.7N 115.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240722020720
2024072200 05W GAEMI 010 02 015 04 SATL 050
T000 176N 1259E 050 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 184N 1259E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 197N 1257E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 214N 1253E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 230N 1244E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 252N 1215E 085 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 269N 1185E 045 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 100 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 296N 1162E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.9N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.6N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 125.9E.
22JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 172N1258E 50
0524072118 172N1258E 50
0524072200 176N1259E 50
0524072200 176N1259E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 125.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A
CURVED BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2403 GAEMI (2403) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 17.4N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 19.7N 125.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 240000UTC 23.3N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 250000UTC 25.4N 120.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 260000UTC 26.6N 118.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 270000UTC 29.7N 115.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2403 GAEMI (2403) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA
AT 17.4N 125.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.7N 125.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 124.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.4N 120.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 26.6N 118.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 29.7N 115.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 990 HPA
AT 17.4N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 19.1N 125.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 17.4N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 19.1N 125.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 231800UTC 22.1N 124.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 241800UTC 24.8N 122.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 251800UTC 26.3N 119.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 261800UTC 29.5N 116.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 009 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 29.5N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 125.7E.
21JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240721200350
2024072118 05W GAEMI 009 02 335 02 SATL 060
T000 170N 1257E 055 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 176N 1257E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 186N 1256E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 201N 1255E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 219N 1251E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 246N 1232E 095 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 265N 1201E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 295N 1177E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 29.5N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 125.7E.
21JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 167N1260E 45
0524072106 167N1258E 45
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072112 168N1258E 50
0524072118 170N1257E 55
0524072118 170N1257E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 17.2N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 18.8N 125.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 231800UTC 22.1N 124.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 241800UTC 24.8N 122.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 251800UTC 26.3N 119.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 261800UTC 29.5N 116.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 990 HPA
AT 17.2N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 18.8N 125.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 22.1N 124.6E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 24.8N 122.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 26.3N 119.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 29.5N 116.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 17.2N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 18.7N 125.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 231200UTC 21.2N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 241200UTC 24.3N 122.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 251200UTC 26.5N 120.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 261200UTC 29.4N 118.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 990 HPA
AT 17.2N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 18.7N 125.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240721133039
2024072112 05W GAEMI 008 02 315 01 SATL 030
T000 169N 1256E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 176N 1256E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 184N 1253E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 195N 1250E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 209N 1247E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 240N 1235E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 264N 1207E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 292N 1177E 035 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 29.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 125.6E.
21JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 168N1259E 45
0524072106 168N1257E 50
0524072106 168N1257E 50
0524072112 169N1256E 50
0524072112 169N1256E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 29.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 125.6E.
21JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 17.2N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 18.5N 125.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 231200UTC 21.2N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 241200UTC 24.3N 122.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 251200UTC 26.5N 120.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 261200UTC 29.4N 118.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 990 HPA
AT 17.2N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.5N 125.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.2N 125.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 24.3N 122.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 26.5N 120.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 29.4N 118.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 992 HPA
AT 17.1N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 18.3N 125.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 17.1N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 18.3N 125.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 230600UTC 20.1N 125.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 240600UTC 23.7N 124.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 250600UTC 26.1N 121.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 260600UTC 28.9N 119.7E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240721072545
2024072106 05W GAEMI 007 02 270 02 SATL 030
T000 168N 1257E 050 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 173N 1255E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 182N 1253E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 190N 1251E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 204N 1249E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 236N 1242E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 263N 1221E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 288N 1198E 050 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.8N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 125.7E.
21JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 168N1259E 45
0524072106 168N1257E 50
0524072106 168N1257E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2403 GAEMI (2403) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 17.0N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 18.2N 125.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 230600UTC 20.1N 125.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240600UTC 23.7N 124.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 250600UTC 26.1N 121.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 260600UTC 28.9N 119.7E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 17.0N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 18.2N 125.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.1N 125.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 23.7N 124.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 26.1N 121.6E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 28.9N 119.7E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 16.9N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 17.7N 125.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 230000UTC 19.4N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 240000UTC 22.5N 125.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 250000UTC 25.4N 122.8E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 260000UTC 28.3N 120.4E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 994 HPA
AT 16.9N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 17.7N 125.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240721022156
2024072100 05W GAEMI 006 02 290 08 SATL 045
T000 169N 1256E 045 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 173N 1252E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 179N 1247E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 187N 1245E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 198N 1244E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 225N 1239E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 255N 1223E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 250 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 282N 1198E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 28.2N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 125.5E.
21JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 162N1273E 40
0524072018 166N1264E 40
0524072100 169N1256E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 16.8N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 17.8N 125.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 230000UTC 19.4N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 240000UTC 22.5N 125.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 250000UTC 25.4N 122.8E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 260000UTC 28.3N 120.4E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 998 HPA
AT 16.8N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 17.8N 125.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.4N 125.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 22.5N 125.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.4N 122.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 28.3N 120.4E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 998 HPA
AT 16.7N 125.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 18.1N 125.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 16.7N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 18.1N 125.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 221800UTC 19.5N 125.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 231800UTC 21.7N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 241800UTC 25.0N 122.8E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 251800UTC 27.2N 119.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240720192853
2024072018 05W GAEMI 005 02 285 13 SATL 060
T000 167N 1261E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 173N 1254E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 180N 1249E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 186N 1245E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 195N 1241E 070 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 222N 1236E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 255N 1222E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 286N 1200E 065 R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.2N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.9E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 157N1283E 35
0524072012 164N1274E 40
0524072018 167N1261E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.2N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.9E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 596 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 16.6N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 17.9N 125.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 221800UTC 19.5N 125.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 231800UTC 21.7N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 241800UTC 25.0N 122.8E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 251800UTC 27.2N 119.2E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 998 HPA
AT 16.6N 125.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 17.9N 125.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.5N 125.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.7N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 25.0N 122.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 27.2N 119.2E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 16.5N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 17.8N 126.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 221200UTC 18.7N 126.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 231200UTC 21.9N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 241200UTC 25.2N 125.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 251200UTC 27.2N 123.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 1002 HPA
AT 16.5N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 17.8N 126.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 16.0N, 127.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240720131910
2024072012 05W GAEMI 004 02 320 10 SATL 060
T000 167N 1277E 030
T012 174N 1270E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 182N 1264E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 190N 1261E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 199N 1259E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 229N 1251E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 259N 1244E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 288N 1228E 090 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.8N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 127.5E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
588 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 159N1284E 30
0524072012 167N1277E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 16.0N 127.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 17.6N 126.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 221200UTC 18.7N 126.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 231200UTC 21.9N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 241200UTC 25.2N 125.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 251200UTC 27.2N 123.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) 1002 HPA
AT 16.0N 127.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 17.6N 126.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.7N 126.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.9N 126.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 25.2N 125.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 27.2N 123.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 15.7N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 17.1N 127.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220600UTC 18.1N 126.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 230600UTC 20.4N 126.0E 165NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 240600UTC 23.8N 125.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 250600UTC 26.4N 123.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240720073105
2024072006 05W FIVE 003 02 320 12 SATL 060
T000 159N 1284E 030
T012 166N 1277E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 173N 1270E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 180N 1263E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 189N 1260E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 215N 1254E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 245N 1245E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 271N 1227E 090 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.1N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 128.2E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
435 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1302E 25
0524072000 150N1292E 30
0524072006 159N1284E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.1N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 128.2E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
435 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 15.2N, 129.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(GAEMI) STATUS. TS GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 15.4N, 128.1E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2403 GAEMI (2403) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 15.4N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 16.9N 127.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220600UTC 18.1N 126.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 230600UTC 20.4N 126.0E 165NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 240600UTC 23.8N 125.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 250600UTC 26.4N 123.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2403 GAEMI (2403) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 15.4N 128.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 16.9N 127.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 18.1N 126.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.4N 126.0E WITH 165 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 23.8N 125.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 26.4N 123.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240720013646
2024072000 05W FIVE 002 02 325 12 SATL 040
T000 150N 1297E 030
T012 161N 1282E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 167N 1275E 040 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 175N 1268E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 184N 1264E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 202N 1263E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 232N 1261E 105 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 257N 1249E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.7N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.2N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 129.3E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
698 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 140N1304E 25
0524072000 150N1297E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.7N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.2N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 129.3E.
20JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
698 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 192105
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 05W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP052024
705 AM ChST Sat Jul 20 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W FORMS NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL HEADING
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND WESTERN MICRONESIA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.5N 129.5E

About 600 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 675 miles west-northwest of Yap
About 1025 miles west of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 05W
was located near Latitude 14.5 degrees North and Longitude 129.5
degrees East. 05W is moving northwest at 18 mph away from the
Marianas and Western Micronesia. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 05W is forecast to intensify
through tonight possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on 05W.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05W NWP 240719194134
2024071918 05W FIVE 001 02 310 16 SATL 060
T000 142N 1300E 025
T012 154N 1281E 030
T024 165N 1269E 030
T036 172N 1262E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 183N 1258E 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 200N 1258E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 226N 1255E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 254N 1244E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 129.5E.
19JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
748 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524071812 115N1350E 15
0524071818 118N1341E 15
0524071900 121N1332E 15
0524071906 125N1324E 20
0524071912 132N1313E 20
0524071918 142N1300E 25
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190930ZJUL2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 129.5E.
19JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
748 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 190930).//
NNNN