Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALETTA-24
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 111.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 111.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.3N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 111.7W.
06JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
909 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 7 FEET.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060232
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

Convection has continued to diminish in association with Aletta.
Little or no organized deep convection has been seen since late
Thursday morning. Both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery do not indicate any return of deep convection. Given the
marginal environment, the remnant low should continue to spin down.
Aletta is forecast to dissipate on Saturday.

Do to the very poor appearance on satellite imagery and the lack of
any pressure gradients in the area, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 20 kt. Socorro Island measured a maximum wind of 21 kt a
few hours ago as Aletta passed just south of the island. Earlier
ASCAT-B data from 1712 UTC only showed peak winds in the 20-25 kt
range at that time.

No significant change has been made to the NHC track forecast.
Aletta should continue to be steered by the low-level flow in a
direction just south of due west until it dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 18.4N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060232
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

...ALETTA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 111.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta
was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Aletta
dissipates on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta is expected
to dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 110.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 110.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.3N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.3N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 110.9W.
05JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
916 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 052032
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

Aletta is no longer producing organized deep convection. If this
current convective trend continues, Aletta will become a remnant low
later this evening. ASCAT-B data at 1712 UTC showed Aletta still has
a well-defined center, but indicated its maximum winds have
decreased to 25 kt.

The depression's initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Aletta
should generally remain on this heading with a similar forward
speed for the next day or so until it dissipates. Environmental
conditions around Aletta do not appear to be conducive for the
redevelopment of organized deep convection and all models indicate
that the cyclone will continue to weaken from this point.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 18.6N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 052030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER...
...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 110.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 110.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so until
Aletta dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta will likely
dissipate in about a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.5N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.2N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 109.9W.
05JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
928 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051442
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

Multiple microwave images between 08 and 12 UTC indicated that
Aletta still has a well-defined center, and it has continued to
produce a small area of deep convection near that center. Objective
and subjective intensity estimates range from around 25 to 35 kt, so
the estimated maximum winds are still 30 kt for this advisory.
Aletta is moving westward (270/10kt) and a west-southwestward turn
is expected later this morning.

The small depression is located in a marginal environment, and a
combination of decreasing SSTs below 26 deg C, drier surrounding
air, and increasing shear should cause Aletta to lose its deep
convection later today. In fact, all dynamical guidance suggests
that Aletta will become a remnant low within the next 6 to 18 h. The
NHC forecast conservatively maintains Aletta as a tropical cyclone
on the longer side of that range, but still shows gradual weakening
through the forecast period. After it becomes a remnant low, Aletta
is expected to turn back toward the west and dissipate within
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 18.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 051442
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051442
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

...ALETTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 109.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta
was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 109.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward
speed is expected for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is expected today. Aletta will likely become a
remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 004
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 108.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 108.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.3N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 108.8W.
05JUL24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALETTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
964 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050836
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

Data from the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers, which both
provided a good sampling of Aletta's circulation, revealed that the
system no longer had tropical-storm-force winds. The scatterometer
data also showed that the center of the tropical cyclone is
displaced to the west of the remaining area of deep convection,
presumably due to easterly vertical wind shear. Accordingly, the
system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this
advisory. During the next day or two, Aletta should be under the
influence of increasingly dry air with continued moderate shear,
while moving over marginal sea surface temperatures. Therefore the
system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24
hours, and dissipate soon thereafter. This is similar to the
previous official intensity forecast.

Aletta is turning to the left with an initial motion estimate of
290/10 kt. The weakening cyclone should turn westward to
west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 108.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta
was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Aletta
should become a remnant low tonight and dissipate by this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.4N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.0N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 108.2W.
05JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALETTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024

After maintaining a relatively well-organized structure on satellite
imagery for most of the day Thursday, Aletta appears a bit less
impressive over the past few hours. The latest objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, while the subjective
numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-35 kt. At this time, there
is no reason to change the initial intensity estimate of 35 kt,
especially given that we should receive some ASCAT data within the
next couple of hours.

Although Aletta is currently located within an environment of low
vertical wind shear, the cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters
and move into a drier airmass over the next 12 h or so. While it is
possible that Aletta could maintain its intensity for another 6 to
12 h, weakening is expected to commence by Friday morning, if not
sooner. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models
show Aletta losing its convection by late Friday, and the new NHC
forecast calls for Aletta to become a remnant low in 24 h.

Aletta has been moving a bit more quickly to the northwest or 305
degrees at 12 kt. A turn to the west is expected tonight. As Aletta
loses its convection, it will be steered westward to
west-southwestward by the low-level flow before it dissipates on
Saturday. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit farther
north and faster to the west, based mainly on the faster motion
observed over the past 6 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024

...ALETTA FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Aletta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday,
followed by a turn toward the west-southwest Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is
forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate by
this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 042031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.0 West. Aletta is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by
Friday night and dissipate this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 042031
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon
consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a
curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various
satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be
stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective
satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and
SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T
numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there
was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force
winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the
system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial
intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression
has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta.

Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn
toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as
the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level
flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of
the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two
while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection
could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to
spin down and dissipate later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 042030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 041449
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized over the past
12-18 hours in association with the small area of low pressure that
NHC has been monitoring for the past several days. There have been
no recent scatterometer or passive microwave passes to assess the
low-level circulation of the system. However, the persistence of the
convection and the current satellite structure suggest a
well-defined surface circulation has likely formed underneath the
colder cloud tops. It is determined that the first tropical
depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB.

The center position of the depression is uncertain based on the lack
of data, but the initial estimated motion is northwest (325/8 kt).
The models agree that this motion will continue into tonight,
followed by a westward turn on Friday within the low-level flow.
With warm SSTs and relatively low shear today, it is possible that
the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though
not explicitly forecast. The tropical cyclone will move across the
26C isotherm during the next 24-36 h, and the cooler waters and
drier mid-level environment thereafter should induce a weakening
trend. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery
suggest convection is likely to collapse on Friday, and the system
is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate
later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.0N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 041448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by gradual
weakening tonight and Friday. The system is forecast to become a
remnant low by Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 041448
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART