Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24
in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico

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Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040856
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to have a large area
of strong convection near the center, although the overall cloud
pattern has become less symmetric. This matches the radar imagery
from Grand Cayman which shows a well-defined eyewall on the
northern side but remains open on the southern side. There isn't
much reason to believe that the gradual filling seen in the last
aircraft mission has stopped, and the initial wind speed is set to
105 kt, a bit lower than what the last aircraft data supported.
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be in the cyclone
within a few hours for a better intensity estimate.

Beryl appears to be moving west-northwestward or 285/17 kt.
Overall, there are no significant changes to the track forecast. A
large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl
to move westward or west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a course toward the
Yucatan Peninsula early Friday and emerging into the southern Gulf
of Mexico early Saturday. The western periphery of the ridge is
forecast to weaken due to a series of shortwaves moving over the
Central Plains, causing Beryl to slow down and turn northwestward
this weekend. While there isn't an atypical amount of track spread
by the time Beryl impacts the western Gulf Coast early next week,
the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles, so it is too early to
pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new NHC
forecast is close to the model consensus and the previous forecast.

Water vapor images show a upper-level trough moving west-
southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, helping to impart
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the hurricane has been
an over-performer so far, this magnitude of shear should cause
notable weakening over the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to
still be a hurricane near the Yucatan tomorrow. After emerging into
the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to
re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear. Almost
all of the model guidance show the system near hurricane strength as
Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official
forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the
previous one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the
inherent uncertainties of intensity forecasts in moderate shear.

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of
flooding are expected to occur in the Cayman Islands today where a
Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

3. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.5N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 22.3N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 25.2N 97.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 09/0600Z 27.0N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040854
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH STRONG WINDS,
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THERE LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 81.0 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking
the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman Islands early today and
over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn
northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during
the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be near major
hurricane intensity today as it passes by the Cayman Islands.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
soon, with tropical storm conditions ongoing.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula late today or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize by late today or early
Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as
much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with
localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040853
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 81.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 81.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.3N 93.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 95.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.2N 97.6W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 99.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 81.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
by Grand Cayman and Air Force Hurricane Hunter radar imagery near
latitude 18.3 North, longitude 80.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking
the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and
over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn
northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes by the Cayman Islands.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
within the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions
starting soon.

Hurricane conditions are diminishing across Jamaica.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula late today or early Friday morning. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize by late today or early
Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as
much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

Storm surge should be gradually subsiding in Jamaica.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
this morning. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands through today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula
into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late today
through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040234
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching
the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has
become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest
side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt.
The crews on board also reported that there was significant
turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA's P-3 Tail Doppler Radar
data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex,
likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear.

The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track,
and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge
centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more
westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the
major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and
across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The
ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to
slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a
trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly
clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced
steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of
high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the
time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly,
confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long
range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the
previous one and very near the various consensus aids.

Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly
shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold
steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These
less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air
should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a
powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The
interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid
weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl
moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica for a few
more hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica overnight.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Progreso to Campeche and issued a
Hurricane Warning for Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or
two, taking the core of Beryl just south of Cayman Islands overnight
and over the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday.
Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Friday night and turn northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across the extreme
southwestern portions of Jamaica and in the mountainous areas for
another few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
elsewhere on the island.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
overnight, with tropical storm conditions beginning.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as
much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands through Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula
into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late Thursday
through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America on Thursday and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040232
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032353
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MOVING NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 78.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Catoche to Progresso in the
Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Progresso to
Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
just offshore of the southwest part of Jamaica near latitude 17.8
North, longitude 78.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the
west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or
two, taking the core of Beryl just south of Cayman Islands tonight
and over the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday.
Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Friday night and turn northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions continue across southwestern portions of
Jamaica and in the mountainous areas. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring elsewhere on the island.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
late tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
within the next couple of hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by
late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected
to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the
Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America on Thursday and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 032047
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of
the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the
eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in
satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any
re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be
held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance
aircraft. The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is
brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane
conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island.

The initial motion is now 285/17. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the
Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, Beryl
should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United
States. There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this
cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the
ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward. Based on this and
other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a
little to the southwest of the previous forecast. However, there
is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a
landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out.

Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the
next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the
intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance.
However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast
is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone
should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The
intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential
for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the
model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and
based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to
re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next
several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight.
Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience
destructive wind gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should
monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 77.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 032042
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 77.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING...
...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 77.6 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this evening, followed by a turn
more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Beryl will pass near or over the southern coast of
Jamaica during the next few hours. After that, the center is
expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early
Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday
night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of
48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of
Jamaica at this time, especially along the southern coast and in
the mountainous areas. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
elsewhere on the island.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon or early tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by
late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected
to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the
Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the
southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. These
swells are expected to reach the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua,
the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba this evening, and
they are expected to reach the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by midday Thursday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031741
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AS THE EYE OF
BERYL APPROACHES...
...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours.
After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman
Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica during the next
several hours and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are about to spread into Jamaica,
especially along the southern coast and in the mountainous areas.
Tropical storm conditions are spreading across Jamaica at this time,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area along the southwestern peninsula of Haiti today, and in the
tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday or Friday night.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
this evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected
to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands tonight into Thursday. Over the Yucatan
Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands, the northern coast of Nicaragua, and the
coast of Honduras later today. Swells will also spread toward
portions of western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of
Belize during the next day or so. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 031447
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman
Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of
Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next
few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning
Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions
of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the
progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 031446
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.1W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.1W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to
Cancun.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal, and north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Cabo Catoche
to Campeche.

The Hurricane Watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti has
been discontinued.

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours.
After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman
Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or
near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later
today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area in the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are spreading across Jamaica at this time, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area along the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti today, and in the
tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday or Friday night.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected
to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the
Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today and spread toward portions
of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or
so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031149
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JAMAICA BY
MIDDAY TODAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea and is
forecast to pass near or over Jamaica later today. The center is
expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early
Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or
near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later
today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area around midday. Winds are expected
to first reach tropical storm strength during the next several
hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast
of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with localized amounts of 12 inches, across Jamaica through
this evening along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over
the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands tonight into
Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches with localized
amounts of 8 inches, along with at least localized flash flooding,
late Thursday through Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell will
continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during the next
day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030854
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Beryl appears to be experiencing the effects of moderate
northwesterly shear. The eye has become cloud-filled, and the
hurricane's cloud pattern is elongated northeast to southwest.
Still, very deep convection is present in the eyewall and the core
of the hurricane remains intact. Data from an earlier Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft had maximum flight-level winds of 136 kt
and a slightly higher minimum central pressure than the previous
advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt,
pending data from the next set of reconnaissance aircraft.

The intensity forecast remains rather challenging. The uncertainty
starts right away due to noticeable discrepancies in the short-term
evolution of the upper-level flow in the global models. The ECMWF
global model predicts strong westerly flow from an upper-level
trough that would significantly increase the shear over Beryl in the
next 24 h and result in rapid weakening. However, the GFS model
shows a very different upper-level wind pattern that would result in
only moderate vertical wind shear near Beryl and thus, less
weakening. The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions
and general weakening through 48 h. It should be emphasized that
Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near
Jamaica in the next 12 h, the Cayman Islands early on Thursday, and
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. As Beryl emerges over the warm
waters of the Gulf Mexico in about 72 h, an upper-level ridge is
forecast to build closer to the storm, and more numerical model
guidance is showing restrengthening. The official forecast now
shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the
western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and lies a bit below the model
consensus.

The hurricane has continued its rapid pace across the central
Caribbean at around 285/17 kt. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The core of the hurricane should pass near or
just south of Jamaica later today, with little change to the
forecast near Yucatan. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the storm should
turn northwestward as a trough moving over the central US weakens
the ridge over the weekend. There is still significant uncertainty
in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing
stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern
side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern
side. The NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the guidance
envelope, near the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to
the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning
this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early on Thursday.
Residents in these areas should listen to local government and
emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation
orders.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.6N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 19.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 20.1N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 25.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030853
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 74.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 74.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 73.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.4N 86.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.1N 91.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 74.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO IMPACT JAMAICA
MIDDAY BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 74.4 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea and is
forecast to pass near or over Jamaica later today. The center is
expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early
Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later today and
the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional weakening
is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a
hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area around midday. Winds are expected
to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast
of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with localized amounts of 12 inches, across Jamaica through
this evening along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over
the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands tonight into
Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches with localized
amounts of 8 inches, along with at least localized flash flooding,
late Thursday through Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell will
continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during the next
day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030550
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea and is
forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on later today. The center is
expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early
Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or
two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
intensity while it passes near Jamaica later today and the Cayman
Islands tonight. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though
Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern
Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 946 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area around midday. Winds are expected
to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast
of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late today. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands today
into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize,
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maxima of 6 inches in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
Thursday into Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell will
continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during the next
day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.07.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 53.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2024 11.9N 53.1W WEAK
12UTC 03.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 71.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2024 16.2N 71.6W STRONG
12UTC 03.07.2024 16.6N 75.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.07.2024 17.9N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.07.2024 18.2N 82.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2024 18.6N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2024 19.3N 88.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.07.2024 20.0N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2024 20.8N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2024 21.7N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2024 22.8N 96.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2024 23.6N 98.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2024 23.4N 100.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 38.9N 60.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.07.2024 38.5N 61.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.07.2024 36.8N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2024 36.4N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030412


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.07.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 53.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2024 0 11.9N 53.1W 1012 27
1200UTC 03.07.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 71.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2024 0 16.2N 71.6W 969 91
1200UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.6N 75.4W 980 73
0000UTC 04.07.2024 24 17.9N 78.6W 989 57
1200UTC 04.07.2024 36 18.2N 82.7W 995 47
0000UTC 05.07.2024 48 18.6N 86.0W 996 45
1200UTC 05.07.2024 60 19.3N 88.6W 1000 32
0000UTC 06.07.2024 72 20.0N 91.9W 1000 39
1200UTC 06.07.2024 84 20.8N 93.8W 1001 37
0000UTC 07.07.2024 96 21.7N 95.4W 1000 38
1200UTC 07.07.2024 108 22.8N 96.8W 996 41
0000UTC 08.07.2024 120 23.6N 98.3W 997 39
1200UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 100.7W 1006 26
0000UTC 09.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 38.9N 60.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.07.2024 24 38.5N 61.0W 1011 27
1200UTC 04.07.2024 36 36.8N 62.1W 1010 26
0000UTC 05.07.2024 48 36.4N 62.4W 1011 17
1200UTC 05.07.2024 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030412


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030247
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Beryl this evening. Data from the aircraft suggest
that Beryl hasn't weakened very much so far. Flight-level winds
indicate that the intensity is still near 130 kt. Satellite-
derived intensity estimates are below this value, and the
eye has become a little less well-defined on the imagery.

The rapid west-northwestward motion continues, at around 290/19 kt.
A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Beryl should continue to
steer the system on a west-northwestward heading across the central
and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days. This motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 12 to 24 hours, near the
Cayman Islands in 24 to 36 hours, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico in 48 to 60 hours. Beyond 72 hours, when Beryl should be
located over the western Gulf of Mexico, the track model spread
increases. Therefore there is significant uncertainty in the 4-
and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in
the ridge.

There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of
Beryl. Vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near the
Yucatan Channel, should increase over Beryl during the next day
or so. Therefore some weakening seems likely during the next 48
hours. However, the system should maintain hurricane strength
while it moves over the northwestern Caribbean. Later in the
forecast period, when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico,
it is not clear how much the cyclone will re-intensify, but it
should at least be close to hurricane intensity around that time.
The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.2N 72.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 20.1N 88.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 22.7N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON COAST

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030245
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 72.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 72.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.1N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 94.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030246
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 72.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 72.7 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more
toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean
Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on
Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman
Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or
two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman
Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected
thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola tonight and early Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast
of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday
into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize,
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maxima of 6 inches in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
Thursday into Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so.
Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022354
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
south of Chetumal to Belize City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more
toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean
Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on
Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman
Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or
two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman
Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected
thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast
of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5
to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides. Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands
Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so.
Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 022041
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since
the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While
the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged
and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the
overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.
Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has
weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity
will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft
missions near 00Z.

The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman
Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in
the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and
location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern
United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this
time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.
This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the
consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty.

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models
are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the
next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models
show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this,
the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major
hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane
strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a
hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There
remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better
agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the
Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle
of the spread-out intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches
will likely be required later today or tonight.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 022040
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 70.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 135SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 70.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize, should closely monitor the
progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required
tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more
toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the central
Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica
on Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the
Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day
or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and
the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is
expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane
in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5
to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides. Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands
Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so.
Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021732
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 69.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required later today
or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 69.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more
toward the west on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea today and
is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands
on Thursday. The center is forecast to approach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast later
today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane
intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near
Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman
Islands.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5
to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and the southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across the Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so.
Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 021441
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.

The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant
spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the
strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the
southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable
uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the
forecast period.

The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general
agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly
shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica.
However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks
somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the
hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a
major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There
is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long
the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in
how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the
west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the
spread-out intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 68.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 021440
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 68.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 68.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021440
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the south coast of Haiti
from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more
toward the west on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea today and
is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands
on Thursday. The center is forecast to approach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast later
today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane
intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near
Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman
Islands.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5
to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and the southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across the Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so.
Swells are expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021149
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 67.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 67.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to
continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of
days and turn westward by Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on
Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening should begin later
today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane
intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near
Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42059 to the north of the eye recently
reported sustained winds of 72 mph (115 km/h) and a wind gust of
94 mph (151 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman
Islands.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica on
Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding. Rainfall
from outer bands of Beryl should impact mainly southern portions of
Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain
possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020859
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow,
and a prominent outer band. Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about
500 m. This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this
advisory.

The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated
290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next
few days. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid. There is
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain. Model guidance
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears
the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
on Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 66.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.5N 73.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.4N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020855
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 66.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 66.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 73.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 76.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.2N 80.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 66.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 66.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for all of the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 66.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to
continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of
days and turn westward by Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on
Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl
is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as its moves
into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday
and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional weakening is
expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane
in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman
Islands.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica on
Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding. Rainfall
from outer bands of Beryl should impact mainly southern portions of
Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain
possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020549
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of
the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 65.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). Beryl is forecast
to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move
quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today
and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be
near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central
Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 935 mb (27.61
inches) based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, in portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl may impact
portions of Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of
rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020252
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite
helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the
past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of
157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction
translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl
a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the
earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on
record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July
after Hurricane Emily in 2005.

Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit
faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A
well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is
expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly
west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several
days. After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more
NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and
gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The
guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and
thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction,
roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72
hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after
Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in
the track at the end of the forecast is rather low.

While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the
short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl's
eye have remained steady at 938 mb. It is also possible another
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night,
with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent
probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said,
after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent
that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin
to undercut Beryl's outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane
models, which did a good job predicting Beryl's peak intensity
today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the
hurricane after the next 24 hours. There is evidence of this less
favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind
of Beryl's track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted
from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl's
structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the
Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the
Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for
restrengthening at the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible over portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required on Tuesday or
Wednesday.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 64.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.8N 67.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.9N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 18.2N 82.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.6N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020248
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of
the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). Beryl is forecast
to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will
move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea
tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on
Wednesday.

Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicates that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is now a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations
in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is
expected to still be near major hurricane intensity as its moves
into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday.
Some more weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast
to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, in portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl may impact
portions of Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of
rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020246
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 64.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 64.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 67.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 71.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 75.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 78.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N 85.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 64.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012355
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL EVEN STRONGER AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
island. The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands. The
government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada. The government of France has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The government of St.
Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of
the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). The center of Beryl
will move quickly away from the southern Windward Islands tonight
and continue westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across
the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday
and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a
strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or
so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is
expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday afternoon. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength earlier on
Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across the Windward Islands through this evening.
Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the
Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012050
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, DANGEROUS WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has changed the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for those islands.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from
Punta Palenque westward to the border of Haiti.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast of Haiti has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has changed the Hurricane
Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be
required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 63.2 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). The center of Beryl
will continue moving away from the southern Windward Islands
tonight and move quickly westward to west-northwestward during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move
across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through
Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean.
Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek,
though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently
reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph
(104 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue in the southern Windward
Islands over the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola by
late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should recede into the evening over the
southern Windward Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across the Windward Islands through this evening.
Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the
Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 012051
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl has maintained a very impressive satellite appearance this
afternoon. The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring
of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure
of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane
Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the
central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb. The latest objective
(ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates
still support an intensity between 125 to 130 kt, which lies in
between the earlier reduced flight-level winds and SFMR retrievals
from the aircraft. Thus, the initial intensity of Beryl is held at
130 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward
(290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is
expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the
hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again
this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the
near term, the official NHC forecast shows little intensity change
through tonight. An increase in mid-level westerly shear is still
forecast by midweek, and this should cause some weakening while
Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
However, Beryl is still forecast to remain a hurricane as it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity
prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Once
again, there is increased uncertainty later in the forecast period
regarding the extent of land interaction and vertical depth of the
cyclone once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the
southwestern Gulf.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous waves, and heavy rainfall
are expected to continue through this evening while the core of
Beryl pulls away from the southern Windward Islands.

2. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued for the south coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane
conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or
two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.3N 73.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 77.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 17.9N 80.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.3N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 012048
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 73.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 77.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N 80.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 63.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011752
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS BERYL ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the island.

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Tobago and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
Trinidad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be
required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). The center of Beryl
will move away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and pass
quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean.
Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek,
though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia
recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 946 mb
(27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning
area. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the
core of Beryl is moving through portions of the southern Windward
Islands, including Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine
Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area on Jamaica by
Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm
warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash
flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011649
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station at Grenada airport recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
speed of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Beryl. The next
intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.07.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.4N 38.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 9.4N 38.0W 1011 27
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 18.7N 99.4W 1010 22
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011612


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.4N 38.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2024 9.4N 38.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2024 18.7N 99.4W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2024 12.1N 60.5W STRONG
00UTC 02.07.2024 13.7N 63.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.07.2024 15.1N 67.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.07.2024 16.0N 71.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.07.2024 16.5N 75.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.07.2024 17.3N 79.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2024 18.0N 82.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2024 18.1N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2024 18.7N 88.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2024 19.4N 91.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2024 20.5N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2024 20.9N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2024 21.7N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011612


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011552
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1200 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
of 58 mph (93 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 100 PM AST (1700 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011512
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1110 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL STRONGER...

Satellite imagery and Barbados radar data indicate that the eye of
Beryl has made landfall on Carriacou Island at 1110 AM AST (1510
UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have increased to 150
mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance data is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Kelly/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011457
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Satellite and radar data this morning suggest Beryl has completed an
eyewall replacement cycle. Radar images from Barbados show a solid
ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of
the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened. Dropsondes
indicate the central pressure has fallen to around 956 mb, and the
earlier flight-level winds and SFMR data supported an intensity of
around 115 kt a couple of hours ago. The hurricane's satellite
structure has continued to improve this morning, and recent
objective satellite estimates justify raising the initial intensity
to 120 kt. The core of the powerful hurricane is nearing Carriacou
Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands, where conditions are
rapidly deteriorating and residents should take action to protect
their lives.

Aircraft and radar fixes indicate Beryl has jogged northwestward
over the past several hours, and the initial estimated motion is
west-northwest or 285/17 kt. The hurricane is currently moving
across the southern Windward Islands. A mid-level steering ridge to
the north of Beryl should steer the hurricane quickly
west-northwestward to westward across the Caribbean Sea during the
next few days as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the
cyclone. This portion of the track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, and the NHC forecast remains close to the
multi-model consensus aids. At days 3-5, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the
steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged
slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the
consensus aids.

Since the eyewall replacement cycle has completed, the updated NHC
forecast allows for some additional near-term strengthening based on
recent aircraft data and the improved satellite and radar structure
of the hurricane. As previously noted, an increase in westerly shear
is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening
while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the
multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to
remain a powerful hurricane through late this week, and interests in
the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula should continue
to monitor the latest forecast updates.

Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Jamaica has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the island.

Key Messages:

1. The eyewall of Beryl is moving through the southern Windward
Islands. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening
situation. Take action now to protect your life! Residents in
Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Carriacou Island should not
leave their shelter as destructive winds and life-threatening storm
surge are expected during the next few hours. Shelter in place
through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and do not
venture out in the eye of the storm.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are expected across
the Windward Islands through this afternoon.

3. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Watch has been
issued for Jamaica. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required during the next day or two.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.4N 61.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011456
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, the Cayman
Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should
closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 61.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). The eyewall of
Beryl is moving across the southern Windward Islands. This is
an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Take action
now to protect your life! Residents in Grenada, the Grenadine
Islands, and Carriacou Island should not leave their shelter as
winds will rapidly increase within the eyewall of Beryl. Remain in
place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and
do not venture out in the eye of the storm.

Beryl is expected to move quickly westward to west-northwestward
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl is currently moving across the southern Windward Islands and
will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late
today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during
the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in
the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A weather station in Crown Point, Tobago recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
There have been multiple reports of downed trees, flooded streets,
power outages and storm surge flooding in the Grenandines, Grenada,
Barbados, and Tobago.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 956 mb
(28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning
area. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the
core of Beryl is moving through portions of the southern Windward
Islands, including Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine
Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical
storm warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash
flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 011454
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 61.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 75SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 61.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 61.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011358
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL NEARING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the southern Windward Islands and expected to make
landfall within the next hour or two. This is an extremely dangerous
and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your
life! Residents in the Grenadine Islands and Carriacou Island should
not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the
eyewall of Beryl. Remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the
storm.

A weather station located in Barbados at Grantley Adams
International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph
(83 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 61.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 SE ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011255
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
900 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...900 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the Windward Islands and expected to make landfall
within the next few hours.

A weather station in Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (95 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM AST (1400 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 60.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED
TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the island.

The government of Dominica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the
Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is
expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados
recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to
69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early this morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of
the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical
storm warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding
in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010859
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement
cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming
dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over.
While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have
weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and
satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt.
A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the
hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the
intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl's
maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of
stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely
to affect a larger area.

The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs
that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster
west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl
encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to
turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable
change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is
showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl
considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big
change from earlier so I don't want to bite off on that evolution
just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the
model consensus for continuity purposes.

Beryl has a chance today to re-strengthen now that the eyewall cycle
is close to completion and the vertical wind shear remains low.
Little change was made to the previous forecast in the short term.
However, a marked increase in westerly shear is coming in a couple
of days as the low-level flow increases and the upper-level flow
weakens. This pattern is likely to cause the hurricane to weaken
over the central Caribbean, although the guidance is in poor
agreement on how much, with the latest cycle showing a weaker Beryl
in the western Caribbean. There is quite a disparity in the
upper-level pattern shown by the ECMWF and GFS in the long range as
Beryl enters the vicinity, so the new forecast is only slightly
adjusts downward for 48 hours and beyond, remaining above the model
consensus. It is too soon to discuss what could happen with Beryl
if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands this morning. This
is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should
listen to local government and emergency management officials for
any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning later this morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands today.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010857
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 59.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 135SE 105SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 59.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 59.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 59.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL TAKING AIM AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 59.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 59.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in
the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados
recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust
to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early this morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of
the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting soon, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding
in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward
and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells
are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010555
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WITHIN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 59.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 59.1 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous major
hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the
eastern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados
recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early this morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of
the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting soon, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
today. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward
and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells
are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010259 CCA
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected location of Beryl in the final paragraph.

There are a few pieces of evidence that show that Beryl is in the
middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The clear eye seen on
infrared satellite earlier today has become a little more clouded
over during the past few hours. In addition, data from the last leg
through Beryl from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunters indicated concentric eyewalls, which also matches current
radar imagery we are receiving from Barbados Meteorological Service.
An earlier SSMIS microwave pass at 2150 UTC also showed a formative
outer moat forming outside the small inner eyewall. In response to
the evolving structure, 700-mb flight-level winds from the NOAA and
Air Force planes are a little lower than observed earlier today, and
the latest round of Dvorak estimates also support a slightly lower
intensity. However, the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt for
this advisory, given a couple of dropsonde observations in the NE
quadrant of Beryl's inner eyewall.

Aircraft fixes indicate Beryl continues to move quickly westward
at 280/17 kt. There isn't much change with the track forecast
philosophy, as a extensive mid-level ridge poleward of Beryl should
maintain its westward to west-northwest motion for the next few days
as it move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The ridge does become positioned more northwest of
Beryl towards the end of the forecast period, potentially allowing
the hurricane to slow down gradually once it reaches the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance this cycle is quite
similar to the previous cycle, and thus the latest NHC track
forecast is also quite similar to the prior advisory.

Given the evolution to Beryl's inner core structure tonight due to
the aforementioned ERC, it would not be surprising to see a
short-term fluctuation down in Beryl's peak winds, though Beryl is
expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it crosses through
the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. In fact, there could also be
a bit of restrengthening after the ERC completes in the eastern
Caribbean, and that is reflected in the short-term forecast. After
48 hours, a subtle upper-level trough to Beryl's north could induce
a bit more westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane, and some
gradual weakening continues to be shown after 48 hours. However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region, though
more prominent weakening is likely if Beryl crosses the Yucatan
between days 4-5 as shown in the latest forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, and is
only slightly adjusted from the prior advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow morning.
This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas
should listen to local government and emergency management officials
for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. These preparations
should have been completed today as significant impacts will begin
tomorrow morning.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010244
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

There are a few pieces of evidence that show that Beryl is in the
middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The clear eye seen on
infrared satellite earlier today has become a little more clouded
over during the past few hours. In addition, data from the last leg
through Beryl from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunters indicated concentric eyewalls, which also matches current
radar imagery we are receiving from Barbados Meteorological Service.
An earlier SSMIS microwave pass at 2150 UTC also showed a formative
outer moat forming outside the small inner eyewall. In response to
the evolving structure, 700-mb flight-level winds from the NOAA and
Air Force planes are a little lower than observed earlier today, and
the latest round of Dvorak estimates also support a slightly lower
intensity. However, the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt for
this advisory, given a couple of dropsonde observations in the NE
quadrant of Beryl's inner eyewall.

Aircraft fixes indicate Beryl continues to move quickly westward
at 280/17 kt. There isn't much change with the track forecast
philosophy, as a extensive mid-level ridge poleward of Beryl should
maintain its westward to west-northwest motion for the next few days
as it move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The ridge does become positioned more northwest of
Beryl towards the end of the forecast period, potentially allowing
the hurricane to slow down gradually once it reaches the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance this cycle is quite
similar to the previous cycle, and thus the latest NHC track
forecast is also quite similar to the prior advisory.

Given the evolution to Beryl's inner core structure tonight due to
the aforementioned ERC, it would not be surprising to see a
short-term fluctuation down in Beryl's peak winds, though Beryl is
expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it crosses through
the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. In fact, there could also be
a bit of restrengthening after the ERC completes in the northwestern
Caribbean, and that is reflected in the short-term forecast. After
48 hours, a subtle upper-level trough to Beryl's north could induce
a bit more westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane, and some
gradual weakening continues to be shown after 48 hours. However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region, though
more prominent weakening is likely if Beryl crosses the Yucatan
between days 4-5 as shown in the latest forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, and is
only slightly adjusted from the prior advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow morning.
This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas
should listen to local government and emergency management officials
for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. These preparations
should have been completed today as significant impacts will begin
tomorrow morning.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 58.1 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early tomorrow morning. Potentially catastrophic
wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through
portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core
in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting tomorrow morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting tomorrow morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010240
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 58.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 135SE 75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 58.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 105NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 58.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 302350
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSING IN ON THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 57.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 260 MI...480 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the island of Trinidad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 57.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through
Wednesday.

Data from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength
are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall
in the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the eyewall or core of Beryl moves through
portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core
in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 302035
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl's intensity
appears to have leveled off. The extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it.
However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less
symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the
south side. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is
near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. Both the NOAA
and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl
again later this evening.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to its north. A continued relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary
steering feature. Only a minor shift to the north has been made
this cycle, following the trend in the latest models.

Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive
environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in
strength for the next day or so. There is high confidence that
Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in the Windward Islands. As the hurricane tracks across the
Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind
shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend. However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region. The
NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very
dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to
local government and emergency management officials for any
preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be
rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when
Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest
risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 302033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 56.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the entire south
coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic to Anse
d'Hainault.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Trinidad
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 56.5 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during
the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward
Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions
of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight for Dominica, Trinidad, and by Tuesday
afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 302032
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 55.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 56.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301734
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 55.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Trinidad

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 55.6 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Beryl is expected to remain a
category 4 hurricane as it moves through Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions
of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 301536
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Beryl has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM AST...1535 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 301445
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning
indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the
data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to
964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although
Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger
than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated
to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds
up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a
classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and
symmetric convective pattern surrounding it.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been
moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over
the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest
motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains
the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl
across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the
Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast
has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies
close to the various consensus aids.

The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a
couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental
conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some
more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous
category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The
models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves
across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to
level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to
remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The
intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very
dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to
local government and emergency management officials for any
preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be
rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected
when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the
highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and
Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in
effect for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the
northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large
forecast uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on
the specific details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301445
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Trinidad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Trinidad

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 54.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move
across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Beryl is expected to
become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches
the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions
of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 301444
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 54.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 54.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301148 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected maximum sustained winds in Summary

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
to a Hurricane Warning for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move
across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday night and Tuesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts, making
Beryl a very dangerous category 3 hurricane. Continued rapid
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is
expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early on Monday. Devastating wind damage is expected
where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight
and Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 301142
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
to a Hurricane Warning for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move
across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday night and Tuesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts, making
Beryl a very dangerous category 3 hurricane. Continued rapid
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is
expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early on Monday. Devastating wind damage is expected
where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting late tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight
and Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300905 CCA
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected for time in Windward Islands in second paragraph

Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes
rapid intensification. Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery
shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the
eyewall and a warming eye. The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt,
closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be
too low. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a
better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast
advisory.

Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave
pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24
hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than
10 kt. There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very
powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands. Thus,
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show
rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely
dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward
islands. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will
likely cause the hurricane to level off in intensity, then weaken
through about midweek. The intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, but the NHC forecast is raised at day 5 as more
models are showing lessening shear in the western Caribbean.

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at
280/18 kt. There aren't any significant track changes from the
previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl
expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for
several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the
forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update
of the previous one.

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward
Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency
management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300856
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes
rapid intensification. Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery
shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the
eyewall and a warming eye. The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt,
closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be
too low. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a
better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast
advisory.

Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave
pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24
hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than
10 kt. There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very
powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands. Thus,
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show
rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely
dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward
islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean,
increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane to level off in
intensity, then weaken through about midweek. The intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, but the NHC forecast is
raised at day 5 as more models are showing lessening shear in the
western Caribbean.

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at
280/18 kt. There aren't any significant track changes from the
previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl
expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for
several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the
forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update
of the previous one.

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward
Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency
management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...FORECAST TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 53.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 53.1 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday night and Tuesday.

Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is
expected to become an extremely dangerous hurricane before it
reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early on Monday. Devastating wind damage is expected
where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night
into Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands by this evening. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300854
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 53.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 45SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 53.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 52.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 53.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300544
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL GETTING STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 52.2W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 52.2 West. Beryl is moving
quickly toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday night and Tuesday.

Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is
expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches
the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early on Monday. Devastating wind damage is expected
where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight
into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands by this evening. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300243
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective
cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the
center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle.
After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass
revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective
and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and
based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the
intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates.
As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide
our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane.

Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this
evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge
remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed
over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane
over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle
weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the
hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in
over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely
resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower
compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of
the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding,
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard.
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing
destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300239
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 51.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be
required tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 51.2 West. Beryl is moving
quickly toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major
hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected
where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area starting Sunday night.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night
into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300237
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 51.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 51.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 51.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 292349
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia. The government of Barbados has issued a
Hurricane Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The
government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Grenada and a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be
required tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 50.3 West. Beryl is moving
quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major
hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected
where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward
Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area starting Sunday night.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into
Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.

Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4
inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday
night into Tuesday.

Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola
Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 292036
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a
hurricane. Satellite images show an expanding central dense
overcast feature, and recent microwave images indicate that a
partial eyewall has formed. This intensity estimate is in agreement
with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB of T4.0/65 kt. Beryl is a
compact tropical cyclone, with its tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to extend up to 50 n mi from the center. Both the NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
Beryl tomorrow, and the data they collect will be very helpful in
assessing the system's structure and intensity.

Beryl continues to wobble around, but the general motion has been
westward at a quick 19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the hurricane moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next couple of days. This motion should take
Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. A
weakness in the ridge could cause Beryl to gain a little more
latitude during the early and middle portions of next week, before
turning back slightly to the left as another ridge builds to the
northwest of Beryl. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and in fairly good agreement with the various consensus
models.

Now that Beryl has developed a compact inner core, it seems likely
that it will continue to intensify quickly since the hurricane will
remain in near ideal environmental conditions during the next day or
two. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged upward in the short
term, and shows Beryl becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to
it reaching the Windward Islands. Beyond a couple of days, when
Beryl is moving across the Caribbean, an increase in shear should
end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening toward the end
of the forecast period. The intensity models are coming into better
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is roughly near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Watch and Warnings are in effect for much
of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.1N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 292034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Tobago

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected
to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major
hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning.
Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl
moves through portions of the Windward Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
areas by Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into
Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.

Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4
inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday
night into Tuesday.

Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola
Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 292033
TCMAT2

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 49.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 49.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 49.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 48.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Tobago

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 48.4 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected
to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore flow in the hurricane watch areas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands
Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in
vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 291447
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a
quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level
center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature.
Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the
west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to
55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is
nearing hurricane strength.

Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been
westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By
the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more
latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge,
before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track
forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest
model runs.

The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed
yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact,
it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the
low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a
major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The
environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into
the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its
strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the
period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the
short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous
one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 291445
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 47.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 47.8W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the island. The government of Barbados has issued a
Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The
government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Grenada and a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is now forecast, and Beryl
is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the
Windward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore flow in the hurricane watch areas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands
Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in
vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291232 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Corrected distance from Barbados

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 46.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or early Sunday with additional strengthening
expected after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291143
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 46.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or early Sunday with additional strengthening
expected after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290836
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 45.5W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 45.5 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is
expected during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to
become a hurricane tonight or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 290836
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Beryl has become better
organized, with the formation of a cold curved convective band near
the center and over the western semicircle. However, AMSR-2
microwave data near 04Z suggested that the center of this convective
curvature may have been displaced a little west of the low-level
center. Based on the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 45 kt. The cyclone currently has good
anticyclonic outflow, especially in the western semicircle.

The initial motion is 280/18 kt. Beryl is on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone
quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the
Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is
some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness
in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida. The GFS-based
guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while
the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The
consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and
the official forecast follows this guidance. The new forecast track
has only minor changes from the previous track.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for
strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS
model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The
new intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to become a
hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for
a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72 h. This peak could be
conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast
Beryl to become a major hurricane. After 72 h, the storm is
expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause
some weakening.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane
when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Barbados. Additional
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, and possibly Warnings, will
likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands later today.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 9.8N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 10.3N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 11.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.6N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.4N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.3N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.4N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.8N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 290835
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 45.5W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 45.5W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.3N 48.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.0N 51.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.4N 58.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 43.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the area early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is
expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 290241
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, deep convection
has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting
cold cloud tops down to -80C. The center of circulation remains on
the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually
becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical
alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with
subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB,
respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around
34-36 kt as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial
intensity for this advisory is set to 35 kt, and the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one
of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or
eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 16 kt, steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Beryl moving
swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days,
with the model guidance remains tightly clustered as the system
moves towards the Windward Islands. There is a little more spread in
the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the
consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very
similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the
system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night
and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through the middle of next week.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, atypical for this time of year,
are fairly favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm
sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind
shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady
strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it
reaches the Windward Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory. It should be noted that some of
the model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are
even higher than the official forecast. Some hurricane regional
models and consensus aids show the system becoming a major hurricane
prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands early
Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 9.3N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 290240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 43.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 43.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.3N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 282058 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

Corrected depression initial forward motion.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will
likely be required for portions of the area tonight or early
Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The depression
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and a hurricane
in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 282057 CCA
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2024

CORRECTED DEPRESSION INITIAL FORWARD MOTION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 41.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 41.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 282033
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep
convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible
satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the
center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has
formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the
latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late
June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in
history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical
Atlantic this early in the year.

The depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively
quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days.
The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the
forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially
in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the
ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies
near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the
guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected
to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and
track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the
middle of next week.

Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for
intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June.
However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days.
Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows
the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday
and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It
should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive
and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For
example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a
major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below
970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight
or early Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 9.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 282032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 41.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 41.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 282032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will
likely be required for portions of the area tonight or early
Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The depression
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and a hurricane
in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi