Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20232024
1.A FILLING UP 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9 S / 42.7 E
(TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 2.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

24H: 2024/05/23 12 UTC: 1.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY HAS COMPLETELY LOST ITS STRUCTURE, WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTER.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE TRACK
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARDS, DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE
(MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER) AND WILL CAUSE
THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS OF 30-25KT MAY STILL PERSIST FOR A LITTLE LONGER.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/11/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 2.9 S / 42.7 E
(DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 185

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/05/2024 00 UTC: 2.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

24H: 23/05/2024 12 UTC: 1.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, IALY A COMPLETEMENT PERDU SA
STRUCTURE AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI S'EST AFFAIBLIE ET L'AIR SEC QUI A
GAGNE LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE SE POURSUIT VERS LE NORD-EST PORTEE PAR LES ALIZES
LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
DESORMAIS DEFAVORABLES (CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET AIR
SEC SUR LE CENTRE) ET PROVOQUENT LA DISSIPATION DES RESTES DU SYSTEME
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. DES VENTS DE 30-25KT PEUVENT TOUT DE MEME
PERDURER UN PEU PLUS LONGUEMENT.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221205
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 11 (IALY) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9 S / 42.7 E
(TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/23 AT 00 UTC:
2.0 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING

24H, VALID 2024/05/23 AT 12 UTC:
1.2 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.1 S / 42.4 E
(THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.5 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING






2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND IALY HAS CHANGED LITTLE BUT
IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE IMAGES GPM FROM
0232 AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 0311 STILL SHOW AN EYE IN 37HGZ BUT
WEAKENING, AND DRY AIR STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. IALY IS
MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 35KT, BUT IALY
IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

IALY'S FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO ITS IMMINENT RAPID
DISSIPATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE
NORTHWARD TRACK IS BEING MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED
NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS THE EQUATOR, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE THE
CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT FORECASTS!

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
RAPIDLY. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA, IALY'S WEAK STRUCTURE CANNOT BE MAINTAINED. WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, THE INTENSITY OF IALY
COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL BE REUNITED, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

KENYA AND SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
- WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 3.1 S / 42.4 E
(TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/05/2024 18 UTC: 1.5 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT






2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DE IALY A PEU
EVOLUEE MAIS EST TOUJOURS PRESENTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 0232 ET SSMIS-F16 DE 0311 MONTRENT TOUJOURS
UN OEIL EN 37HGZ MAIS EN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AINSI QUE L'AIR SEC QUI
COMMENCE A BIEN S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU CENTRE. IALY EST MAINTENUE AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE 35KT MAIS LA
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IALY VIT SES DERNIERS INSTANTS.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE IALY RESTE SUR UNE COURTE PERIODE DU
FAIT DE SA DISSIPATION RAPIDE PROCHAINE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD SE MAINTIENT
AVANT D'ETRE PORTEE VERS LE NORD-EST PAR LES ALIZES LONGEANT LES
COTES AFRICAINES. IL SERA INTERESSANT DE VERIFIER QU'AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H, LE VORTEX SERA SUFFISAMMENT ROBUSTE POUR PASSER
L'EQUATEUR, CE QUI NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE LE CAS D'APRES LES PREVISIONS
ACTUELLES !

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT
RAPIDEMENT. GENE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET
L'ARRIVEE DE L'AIR SEC DU FAIT DE LA PROXIMITE DES COTES AFRICAINES,
LA FAIBLE STRUCTURE DE IALY NE PARVIENT PAS A SE MAINTENIR. AVEC UNE
CONVECTION QUI EST DE PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE, L'INTENSITE DE IALY
S'EFFONDRE. LES CONDITIONS POUR SA DISSIPATION DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES SERONT REUNIES, DES VENTS DE 30-25KT POUVANT PERDURER UN PEU
PLUS LONGUEMENT.


IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

KENYA ET SOMALIE (EXTREMITE SUD)
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M FAIBLISSANT RAPIDEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220628
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.1 S / 42.4 E
(THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 18 UTC:
1.5 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING


OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220300 COR
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 240522024653
2024052200 24S IALY 012A 01 360 07 SATL 060
T000 034S 0419E 045 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 015S 0424E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 3.4S 41.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.4S 41.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 1.5S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 2.9S 42.0E.
22MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256
NM NORTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET.
CORRECTION ISSUED DUE TO INITIAL INTENSITY BEING ABOVE CRITERIA.
A PROGNOSTIC REASOINING MESSAGE WILL FOLLOW.
//
2424051400 90S 543E 20
2424051406 96S 538E 20
2424051412 91S 530E 25
2424051418 85S 529E 25
2424051500 80S 524E 25
2424051506 79S 528E 30
2424051512 82S 530E 30
2424051518 81S 531E 30
2424051600 83S 531E 30
2424051606 86S 529E 35
2424051612 91S 525E 40
2424051618 91S 522E 40
2424051700 91S 518E 40
2424051706 90S 510E 45
2424051712 88S 504E 40
2424051718 85S 499E 40
2424051800 80S 492E 40
2424051806 79S 486E 40
2424051812 79S 478E 45
2424051818 77S 471E 50
2424051818 77S 471E 50
2424051900 75S 466E 55
2424051900 75S 466E 55
2424051906 76S 459E 55
2424051906 76S 459E 55
2424051912 73S 453E 60
2424051912 73S 453E 60
2424051918 69S 448E 60
2424051918 69S 448E 60
2424052000 65S 445E 55
2424052000 65S 445E 55
2424052006 62S 440E 50
2424052006 62S 440E 50
2424052012 60S 435E 55
2424052012 60S 435E 55
2424052018 57S 433E 55
2424052018 57S 433E 55
2424052100 52S 430E 55
2424052100 52S 430E 55
2424052106 49S 425E 65
2424052106 49S 425E 65
2424052106 49S 425E 65
2424052112 47S 421E 65
2424052112 47S 421E 65
2424052112 47S 421E 65
2424052118 41S 419E 60
2424052118 41S 419E 60
2424052200 34S 419E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 3.4S 41.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.4S 41.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 1.5S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 2.9S 42.0E.
22MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256
NM NORTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET.
CORRECTION ISSUED DUE TO INITIAL INTENSITY BEING ABOVE CRITERIA.
A PROGNOSTIC REASOINING MESSAGE WILL FOLLOW.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.7 S / 42.0 E
(THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.9 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 110

24H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.
REMAINING IN A CURVED BAND, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION IS LOSING
CONSISTENCY, LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DVORAK ANALYSIS FOR A SHORT
TIME YET. A T OF 2.5 CAN BE ESTIMATED, WHILE INERTIA KEEPS CI AT
3.5-. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE WIND
IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH INERTIA, AND MAXIMUM WINDS
OF AROUND 40KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IALY
IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-TERM AS IT FASTENED TO DISAPPEAR.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL BE MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
THE EQUATOR, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT
FORECASTS!

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE
TO THE AFRICAN COAST, THE WEAK IALY STRUCTURE IS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, IALY'S INTENSITY
COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE
MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER.


EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

TANZANIA:
- RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NOON.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
- WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 3.7 S / 42.0 E
(TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/05/2024 12 UTC: 1.9 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 150 NO: 110

24H: 23/05/2024 00 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE IALY S'EST
CONSIDERABLEMENT RECHAUFFEE. RESTANT EN BANDE INCURVEE, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE PERD EN CONSISTANCE LAISSANT ENCORE POUR PEU
DE TEMPS LA POSSIBILITE DE REALISER UNE ANALYSE DVORAK. UN T DE 2.5
PEUT ETRE EVALUE ALORS QUE PAR INERTIE, LE CI RESTE A 3.5-. LA
PETITESSE DU SYSTEME CONTINUE DE LAISSER PENSER QUE LE VENT PEINE A
SE MAINTENIR PAR INERTIE ET IL EST DONC ESTIME DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE
L'ORDRE DE 40KT. LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IALY VIT SES DERNIERS
INSTANTS.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE IALY RESTE SUR UNE COURTE PERIODE DU
FAIT DE SA DISSIPATION RAPIDE PROCHAINE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD SE MAINTIEN
AVANT D'ETRE PORTE VERS LE NORD-EST PAR LES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES
AFRICAINES. IL SERA INTERESSANT DE VERIFIER QU'AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H, LE VORTEX SERA SUFFISAMMENT ROBUSTE POUR PASSER
L'EQUATEUR, CE QUI NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE LE CAS D'APRES LES PREVISIONS
ACTUELLES!

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT
RAPIDEMENT. GENE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET
L'ARRIVEE DE L'AIR SEC DU FAIT DE LA PROXIMITE DES COTES AFRICAINES,
LA FAIBLE STRUCTURE DE IALY NE PARVIENT PAS A SE MAINTENIR. AVEC UNE
CONVECTION QUI EST DE PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE, L'INTENSITE DE IALY
S'EFFONDRE. LES CONDITIONS POUR SA DISSIPATION EN COURS DE MATINEE DE
CE MERCREDI SERONT REUNIES, DES VENTS DE 30-25KT POUVANT PERDURER UN
PEU PLUS LONGUEMENT.


IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

TANZANIE :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE JUSQU'A 100-150 MM EN 24H SUR L'ILE PEMBA JUSQU'A
MERCREDI MIDI.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 50 A 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5 M AU LARGE JUSQU'A MERCREDI MATIN, FAIBLISSANT
RAPIDEMENT.

SOMALIE (EXTREMITE SUD)
- VAGUES DE 4M FAIBLISSANT RAPIDEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220000
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.7 S / 42.0 E
(THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND TO 150 IN THE
SOUTHE-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 12 UTC:
1.9 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/23 AT 00 UTC:
0.6 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
(FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 0.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=4.0- CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED: INITIALLY
WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION UP TO 14UTC, CONVECTION RAPIDLY
INVADED THE CENTER, LEAVING IALY IN A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. IN
THE FINAL MOMENTS, CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WARMED UP, LEAVING A
LARGER SHARE OF THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. IN SUCH A
CONFIGURATION, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 4.0- CAN BE MADE AND, DUE TO
INERTIA, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.5-. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ITS RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WIND
INERTIA CAN BE ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, AND PARTIALLY
VALIDATED BY A SMOS DATA OF 47KT AT 1451UTC AND A SAR DATA OF 50KT AT
1524UTC, WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55KT, LEAVING IALY AT THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-LIMITED DUE TO ITS FAST FOLLOWING
DISAPPEARANCE. WHEREAS, DURING PREVIOUS NETWORKS, THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, THE LATEST
ANALYSIS POINTS VALIDATE THE NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTING FLOW DOMINATES. AS THE TRADE
WINDS SKIRT THE COAST OF AFRICA, THEY SHOULD GUIDE THE TRACK
NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12H. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS!

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD SO
FAR, WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. WHILE THE MODELS PREDICTED A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHEAR, EXPLAINING IN PART THEIR TENDENCY TO PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
(TO WHICH IS ADDED THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, A CHARACTERISTIC
THAT MODELS WITH SOMEWHAT COARSE RESOLUTION FIND HARD TO GRASP), THE
LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EFFECT ON VORTEX STRUCTURE. IN THE CASE
OF A SMALL SYSTEM, THIS LEADS TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY,
AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, THE
CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TOMORROW WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

TANZANIA:
- RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NOON.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
- WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
(QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 22/05/2024 18 UTC: 0.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=4.0- CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION D'IALY A BIEN
EVOLUE : D'ABORD AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL BIEN DEFINI JUSQU'A
14UTC, LA CONVECTION A RAPIDEMENT ENVAHI LE CENTRE LAISSANT PAR LA
SUITE IALY DANS UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE. SUR LES DERNIERS
INSTANTS, LA CONVECTION PROCHE DU CENTRE S'EST RECHAUFFEE LAISSANT
UNE PART PLUS IMPORTANTE DANS LA BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD.
DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, UNE ANALYSE EN PT DE 4.0- PEUT ETRE
FAITE ET PAR INERTIE, LE CI RESTE A 4.5-. CEPENDANT ETANT DONNE LA
PETITESSE DU SYSTEME ET DONC SA REPONSE RAPIDE EN TERME D'INTENSITE,
L'INERTIE EN VENT PEUT ETRE ESTIME MOINDRE. PAR CONSEQUENT ET
PARTIELLEMENT VALIDE PAR UNE DONNEE SMOS A 47KT A 1451UTC AINSI
QU'UNE DONNEE SAR A 50KT A 1524UTC, LES VENTS SONT ESTIMES A 55KT
LAISSANT IALY AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE IALY RESTE SUR UNE COURTE PERIODE DU
FAIT DE SA DISSIPATION RAPIDE PROCHAINE. ALORS QUE, LORS DES RESEAUX
PRECEDENTS, LE SYSTEME CONTINUAIT A SE DEPLACER VERS LE NORD-OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE CONTRIBUTION DES FLUX DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE
PLUS FORTE QUE PREVU, LES DERNIERS POINTS ANALYSES PERMETTENT DE
VALIDER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES EST DOMINANT. LES
ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, ILS DEVRAIENT AINSI GUIDER LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD PUIS NORD-EST DANS LES PROCHAINES 6-12H. IL
SERA INTERESSANT DE VERIFIER QU'AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE
VORTEX SERA SUFFISAMMENT ROBUSTE POUR PASSER L'EQUATEUR, CE QUI NE
DEVRAIT PAS ETRE LE CAS D'APRES LES PREVISIONS ACTUELLES!

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ONT ETE
BONNES JUSQU'A PRESENT, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE, UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. ALORS
QUE LES MODELES PREVOYAIENT UN CISAILLEMENT PLUS MARQUE EXPLIQUANT EN
AUTRE LEUR TENDANCE A PREVOIR UN SYSTEME PLUS FAIBLE (AUQUEL S'AJOUTE
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, CARACTERISTIQUE QUE LES MODELES A
RESOLUTION UN PEU LACHE ONT DU MAL A APPREHENDER), LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES DE CISAILLEMENT DU CIMSS MONTRE UNE AUGMENTATION DE
CELUI-CI. LES DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS MONTRENT UN EFFET SUR LA
STRUCTURE DU VORTEX. DANS LE CAS D'UN SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE, CELA
CONDUIT A UN AFFAIBLISSMENT RAPIDE DE L'INTENSITE ET PAR LA SUITE
AVEC L'INJECTION DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS POUR
SA DISSIPATION POUR DEMAIN MERCREDI SERONT REUNIES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

TANZANIE :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE JUSQU'A 100-150 MM EN 24H SUR L'ILE PEMBA JUSQU'A
MERCREDI MIDI.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 50 A 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5 M AU LARGE JUSQU'A MERCREDI MATIN.

SOMALIE (EXTREMITE SUD)
- VAGUES DE 4M DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI ET MERCREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211800
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
(FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
QUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 06 UTC:
2.3 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 18 UTC:
0.8 S / 43.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 42.1 E
(FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 95

24H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

BETWEEN 06 AND 09UTC, IALY'S EYE PATTERN BECAME BETTER DEFINED,
LEADING TO SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS TEMPORARILY RISING TO 4.5.
BETWEEN 09 AND 12UTC, THE EYE THEN WARMED UP A LITTLE, LOWERING THE
DT, BUT IT IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 09UTC IS THUS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT, KEPT
AS SUCH AT 12UTC BY INERTIA ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED.
IALY IS THEREFORE AN HISTORICALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THE
NORTH-WESTERN CORNER OF THE BASIN: IT IS NOT ONLY THE FIRST TROPICAL
STORM BUT ALSO THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF
5S/45E IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO
THE KENYAN COAST).

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO THE FINAL STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK HAS
THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM,
CLOSER TO THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM
TONIGHT ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE
TAKEN UP BY LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. FROM TONIGHT, WIND SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
MORE IMPACTFUL AND SHOULD START TO DISRUPT THE VORTEX AND ENABLE DRY
AIR INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM. A RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THUS
SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

TANZANIA:
- RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NOON.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
- WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/11/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 4.7 S / 42.1 E
(QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 3.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 95

24H: 22/05/2024 12 UTC: 1.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

ENTRE 06 ET 09UTC, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'IALY EST DEVENUE MIEUX
DEFINIE, AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE MONTANT TEMPORAIREMENT A
4.5. ENTRE 09 ET 12UTC, L'OEIL S'EST UN PEU RECHAUFFE, FAISANT
BAISSER LE DT, MAIS RESTE ENCORE PRESENT EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE.
L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE AU MOMENT DU PIC D'INTENSITE VERS 09UTC EST DE 65
KT, MAINTENUE PAR INERTIE A 12UTC MALGRE LA LEGERE DEGRADATION DE
L'OEIL. IALY EST DONC UN SYSTEME HISTORIQUEMENT INTENSE POUR
L'EXTREMITE NORD-OUEST DU BASSIN : C'EST NON SEULEMENT LA PREMIERE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MAIS SURTOUT LE PREMIER CYCLONE TROPICAL REPERTORIE
AU NORD-OUEST DE 5S/45E DANS L'ERE SATELLITAIRE (ET AUSSI LE PLUS
INTENSE AUSSI PRES DES COTES DU KENYA).

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IALY CONTINUE A SE DEPLACER UN PEU PLUS A
L'OUEST QUE LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
CONTRIBUTION DES FLUX DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PLUS FORTE QUE PREVU. LA
TRAJECTOIRE A ETE ENCORE LEGEREMENT DECALEE PLUS A L'OUEST A COURT
TERME, SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DES COTES AFRICAINES BIEN QUE RESTANT
AU LARGE. A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR LES BASSES
COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI
DEVRAIENT REORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD PUIS NORD-EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ONT ETE
BONNES JUSQU'A PRESENT, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE, UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. A PARTIR
DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT
ET DEVRAIT COMMENCER A DESTRUCTURER LE VORTEX PUIS A INJECTER DE
L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE
JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION MERCREDI.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

TANZANIE :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE JUSQU'A 100-150 MM EN 24H SUR L'ILE PEMBA JUSQU'A
MERCREDI MIDI.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 50 A 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5 M AU LARGE JUSQU'A MERCREDI MATIN.

SOMALIE (EXTREMITE SUD)
- VAGUES DE 4M DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI ET MERCREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211216
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IALY) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 42.1 E
(FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 00 UTC:
3.1 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 12 UTC:
1.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 42.5 E
(FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100

24H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 1.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

IALY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 00 AND 06UTC.
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 4.5, WITH AN EYE
PATTERN BEGINNING TO FORM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A
SOLID, COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE REMARKABLY
RESISTANT TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. A 0602Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS
OF AT LEAST 55KT. THE INTENSITY AT 06UTC IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 60
KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MAY BE TEMPORARILY
REACHED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF THE EYE PATTERN CONTINUES. IALY IS
AN EXCEPTIONALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THIS NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE
BASIN: IT IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF 5S/45E
IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO THE
KENYAN COAST).

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO
THE FINAL STEERING FLOW IS PROBABLY GREATER THAN FORECAST. THE TRACK
HAS THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM, CLOSER TO
THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS,
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE TAKEN UP BY THE
LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE AFRICAN
COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT A
SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY TODAY. FROM TONIGHT, AS WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE
IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

TANZANIA:
- RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSE TO 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS ON PEMBA ISLAND
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
- WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210657
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 4.9 S / 42.5 E
(QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 3.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 100

24H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 1.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 100





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'IALY A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER ENTRE 00 ET
06UTC. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES VARIENT ENTRE 4.0 ET
4.5, AVEC MEME UNE AMORCE DE STRUCTURE EN OEIL SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES SATELLITE. L'AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE EST CONFIRMEE PAR LES
RECENTES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRANT UN COEUR CONVECTIF SOLIDE ET
COMPACT. LE SYSTEME RESISTE DONC REMARQUABLEMENT BIEN A LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT. UNE PASSE ASCAT-B A 0602Z INDIQUE DES VENTS D'AU MOINS
55KT. L'INTENSITE A 06UTC EST DONC ESTIMEE A 60 KT. IL N'EST PAS
EXCLU QUE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL SOIT TEMPORAIREMENT ATTEINT
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SI LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL SE MAINTIENT. IALY
EST UN SYSTEME D'UNE INTENSITE EXCEPTIONNELLE POUR CETTE PARTIE
NORD-OUEST DU BASSIN : C'EST LA PREMIERE TEMPETE TROPICALE
REPERTORIEE AU NORD-OUEST DE 5S/45E DANS L'ERE SATELLITAIRE (ET AUSSI
LE PLUS INTENSE AUSSI PRES DES COTES DU KENYA).

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IALY CONTINUE A SE DEPLACER UN PEU PLUS A
L'OUEST QUE LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. LA CONTRIBUTION DES FLUX DE
HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU FLUX DIRECTEUR EST PROBABLEMENT PLUS FORTE QUE
PREVU. LA TRAJECTOIRE A DONC ETE DECALEE PLUS A L'OUEST A COURT
TERME, SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DES COTES AFRICAINES BIEN QUE RESTANT
AU LARGE. A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR LES BASSES
COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI
DEVRAIENT REORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT JUSQU'A
PRESENT PLUTOT BONNES, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE, UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT DONC SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LA
JOURNEE. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS
IMPACTANT, INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME,
CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION
MERCREDI.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

TANZANIE :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE PROCHES DE 100 A 150 MM EN 24H SUR L'ILE PEMBA
JUSQU'A MERCREDI MATIN.

KENYA :
- POSSIBLES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 50 A 100MM EN 24H SUR LE LITTORAL.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5 M AU LARGE JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.

SOMALIE (EXTREMITE SUD)
- VAGUES DE 4M DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI ET MERCREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210626
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 42.5 E
(FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP
TO 300 IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 18 UTC:
3.5 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 06 UTC:
1.7 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210109
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 43.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 195 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 4.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 130




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.0-

CONVECTION WITHIN THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IDAYI HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES. THE SYSTEM'S PATTERN
LOOKS LIKE A CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS, WITH A DIVERGENCE OF
ALTITUDE STILL WELL PRESENT. THE ASCAT METOP-C SWATH AT 1813Z
MEASURES AN AVERAGE WIND FORCE OF 50KT, ENABLING US TO POSITION THE
CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
DVORAK INTENSITY AND TO CHOOSE A MAXIMUM MEAN WIND FORCE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES, THIS IS TO SAY 55KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IN COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY KEEPS
A GENERAL NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE
TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING
ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD REDIRECT ITS TRACK NORTHWARDS.
LATER, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DRIVES A WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STORM
DISSIPATES. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALLOW US TO
ESTABLISH A CONSONSUS ON A NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR A
SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
RATHER GOOD, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, STRONG
OCEAN POTENTIAL AND, LAST BUT NOT LEAST, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BUT THIS NIGHT THE SHEAR SHOULD
BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING,
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON WENESDAY.

WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NEAR THE KENYA AND SOUTHERN
SOMALIA COAST.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210109
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.1 S / 43.0 E
(CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 195 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 95 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 4.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 75

36H: 22/05/2024 12 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 215 NO: 130




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.0-

LA CONVECTION AU SEIN DE LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE IDAYI A PEU
EVOLUEE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES MAIS ELLE S'EST RENFORCEE AU
COURS DE DERNIERES 24H D'APRES LES IMAGES SATELLITES INFRAROUGE. LA
CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'APPARENTE A UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTTUDE TOUJOURS BIEN PRESENTE. LA PASSE ASCAT
METOP-C DE 1813Z MESURE UNE FORCE DE VENT MOYEN DE 50KT ET PERMET DE
POSITIONNER LE CENTRE. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE NOUS INCITE A AUGMENTER
LEGEREMENT L'INTENSITE DVORAK ET DE CHOISIR UNE FORCE DE VENT MOYEN
MAXIMAL UN PEU SUPERIEURE AUX ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS, A SAVOIR
55KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAR RAPPORT AUX PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES,
IALY MAINTIENT UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS LE NORD-NORD-OUEST GRACE A
LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
EST REPRIS PAR LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LES ALIZES LONGEANT
LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT REORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE PLEIN
NORD. PLUS TARD UN TALWEG DANS L'HEMISPHERE NORD PILOTE UN FLUX
D'OUEST QUI DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-EST ALORS
QUE LA TEMPETE SE DISSIPE. LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLES EUROPEENNE ET
AMERICAINE PERMETTENT D'ETABLIR UN CONSONSUS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE DE
SECTEUR NORD PUIS NORD-EST POUR UN SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN
DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT JUSQU'A
PRESENT PLUTOT BONNES, AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, UNE TEMPERATURE
DE SURFACE DE LA MER ELEVEE, UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET POUR
FINIR UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC RESTER
AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENCORE QUELQUES HEURES. MAIS
CETTE NUIT LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT, INJECTANT
GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE A PARTIR DE MARDI MATIN,
JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION MERCREDI.


DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M SONT ATTENDUES MARDI A PROXIMITE DES COTES DU
KENYA ET DU SUD DE LA SOMALIE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210005
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 43.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 10 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 20
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 12 UTC:
4.0 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/22 AT 00 UTC:
2.7 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201930 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 43.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100

48H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 155



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=3.5+

CONVECTION WITHIN TROPICAL STORM IDAYI HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS STRENGTHENING IS MORE MARKED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES, AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE PICTURE DMSP-F16 SSMIS FROM 1441Z ALSO SHOWS A
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THIS CONVECTION WITH AN EASILY LOCALIZABLE
CENTER.THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE A CURVED BAND, AND
CONVECTION HAS REPOSITIONED ITSELF WELL ABOVE THE CENTER, WITH THE
ADDED PRESENCE OF A FINE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ALL THESE ELEMENTS
ATTEST TO A RESTRUCTURING AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER,
A RING IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE 85GHZ MICROWAVES SINCE THE GCOM
PASSED BY AT 1057Z, JUSTIFYING THE RECLASSIFICATION OF IDAYI AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO INCREASE
THE WIND INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND THUS REMAIN ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY IS
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED A SLOWDOWN PHASE DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
AFRICAN RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE JUST NORTH OF
THE METEOR. FROM TOMORROW, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS
FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD BEND THE TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A
NORTH-WERSTERLY THEN NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
EVOLVE FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER GOOD
SO FAR, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND OCEAN
POTENTIAL, AND FINALLY A STRONG ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEREFORE MAINTAIN A STABLE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS NIGHT THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY
INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF
THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING, UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NEAR THE KENYA COAST,
BETWEEN MOMBOSA AND LAMU.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201930 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.7 S / 43.0 E
(CINQ DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

24H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 2.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 0

36H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 100

48H: 22/05/2024 18 UTC: 1.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 155



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=3.5+

LA CONVECTION AU SEIN DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE IDAYI S'EST LEGEREMENT
RENFORCEE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. CE RENFORCEMENT EST PLUS
NOTABLE SUR LES 24 DERNIERES HEURES D'APRES LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITE INFRAROUGE ET LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DMSP-F16 SSMIS
DE 1441Z MONTRE AUSSI UNE MEILLEURE ORGANISATION DE CETTE CONVECTION
AVEC UN CENTRE FACILEMENT LOCALISABLE. LA CONFIGURATION COMMENCE A
RESSEMBLER A UNE BANDE INCURVEE ET LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN
REPOSITIONNEE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE, AVEC DE PLUS LA PRESENCE D'UNE
BELLE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES ELEMENTS TEMOIGNENT AINSI D'UNE
RESTRUCTURATION ET UN RENFORCEMENT DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS UN ANNEAU EST
BIEN VISIBLE SUR LES MICRO-ONDE A 85GHZ DEPUIS LE PASSAGE DE LA GCOM
A 1057Z, CE QUI MOTIVE A RECLASSER IDAYI EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE NOUS INCITE A AUGMENTER L'INTENSITE DE VENT A 50
KT ET A RESTER AINSI AU DESSUS DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAR RAPPORT AUX PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES,
IALY MAINTIENT UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS LE NORD-OUEST GRACE A LA
PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE
SYSTEME A AMORCE UNE PHASE DE RALENTISSEMENT EN RAISON D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN,
AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR
LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES
COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
NORD-EST. LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLES EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE
PERMETTENT D'ETABLIR UN CONSONSUS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD POUR UN SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN DE
TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT JUSQU'A
PRESENT PLUTOT BONNES, AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, UNE TEMPERATURE
DE SURFACE DE LA MER ELEVEE ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET POUR
FINIR UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC
MAINTERNIR UNE INTENSITE STABLE DURANT ENCORE PLUSIEURS HEURES. CETTE
NUIT LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT, INJECTANT
GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE A PARTIR DE MARDI MATIN,
JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.


DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M SONT ATTENDUES MARDI A PROXIMITE DES COTES DU
KENYA, ENTRE MOMBOSA ET LAMU.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201928
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 43.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100

48H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 155



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=3.5+

CONVECTION WITHIN TROPICAL STORM IDAYI HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS STRENGTHENING IS MORE MARKED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES, AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE PICTURE DMSP-F16 SSMIS FROM 1441Z ALSO SHOWS A
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THIS CONVECTION WITH AN EASILY LOCALIZABLE
CENTER. THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A CURVED BAND, AND THE
CONVECTION HAS REPOSITIONED WELL BELOW THE CENTER, WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A NICE ALTITUDE OUTFLOW, SHOWING A RESTRUCTURATION OF THE SYSTEM.
MOREOVER, A RING IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE 85GHZ MICROWAVES SINCE THE
GCOM PASSED BY AT 1057Z, JUSTIFYING THE RECLASSIFICATION OF IDAYI AS
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO INCREASE
THE WIND INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND THUS REMAIN ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY IS
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED A SLOWDOWN PHASE DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
AFRICAN RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE JUST NORTH OF
THE METEOR. FROM TOMORROW, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS
FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD BEND THE TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A
NORTH-WERSTERLY THEN NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
EVOLVE FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER GOOD
SO FAR, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND OCEAN
POTENTIAL, AND FINALLY A STRONG ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEREFORE MAINTAIN A STABLE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS NIGHT THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY
INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF
THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING, UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NEAR THE KENYA COAST,
BETWEEN MOMBOSA AND LAMU.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201928
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.7 S / 43.0 E
(CINQ DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

24H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 2.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 0

36H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 100

48H: 22/05/2024 18 UTC: 1.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 155



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=3.5+

LA CONVECTION AU SEIN DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE IDAYI S'EST LEGEREMENT
RENFORCEE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. CE RENFORCEMENT EST PLUS
NOTABLE SUR LES 24 DERNIERES HEURES D'APRES LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITE INFRAROUGE ET LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DMSP-F16 SSMIS
DE 1441Z MONTRE AUSSI UNE MEILLEURE ORGANISATION DE CETTE CONVECTION
AVEC UN CENTRE FACILEMENT LOCALISABLE. LA CONFIGURATION COMMENCE A
RESSEMBLER A UNE BANDE INCURVEE ET LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN
REPOSITIONNEE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE, AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UNE BELLE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, MONTRANT AINSI UNE RESTRUCTURATION DU SYSTEME.
DE PLUS UN ANNEAU EST BIEN VISIBLE SUR LES MICRO-ONDE A 85GHZ DEPUIS
LE PASSAGE DE LA GCOM A 1057Z, CE QUI MOTIVE A RECLASSER IDAYI EN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE NOUS INCITE A AUGMENTER
L'INTENSITE DE VENT A 50 KT ET A RESTER AINSI AU DESSUS DES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAR RAPPORT AUX PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES,
IALY MAINTIENT UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS LE NORD-OUEST GRACE A LA
PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE
SYSTEME A AMORCE UNE PHASE DE RALENTISSEMENT EN RAISON D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN,
AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR
LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES
COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
NORD-EST. LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLES EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE
PERMETTENT D'ETABLIR UN CONSONSUS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD POUR UN SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN DE
TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT JUSQU'A
PRESENT PLUTOT BONNES, AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, UNE TEMPERATURE
DE SURFACE DE LA MER ELEVEE ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET POUR
FINIR UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC
MAINTERNIR UNE INTENSITE STABLE DURANT ENCORE PLUSIEURS HEURES. CETTE
NUIT LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT, INJECTANT
GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE A PARTIR DE MARDI MATIN,
JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.


DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M SONT ATTENDUES MARDI A PROXIMITE DES COTES DU
KENYA, ENTRE MOMBOSA ET LAMU.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201851 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 43.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 06 UTC:
4.4 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 18 UTC:
2.9 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201817
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 43.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 06 UTC:
4.4 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 18 UTC:
2.9 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 43.9 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.1 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BASED ON VISIBLE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES, IALY
HAS REMAINED IN A SHEAR CONFIGURATION, WHILE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ITS INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STABLE. THE CIMSS
OBJECTIVE DPRINT ANALYSIS BASED ON INFRA-RED IMAGES CONFIRMS THE
STATIONARY TREND IN INTENSITY, WHILE THE ADT AND AIDT ANALYSES GIVE
CONTRADICTORY TRENDS. WITH THESE ELEMENTS, IALY REMAINS A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY IS
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION, THANKS TO THE PRESENCE
OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM HAS ENTERED A SLOWDOWN PHASE DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
AFRICAN RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE JUST NORTH OF
THE METEOR. FROM TOMORROW, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS
FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD BEND THE TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED, WITH
DEEP, MODERATE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT THESE ARE
COUNTERBALANCED BY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION
CHANNELS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS, AND STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE MAINTAIN A STABLE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEN OVERNIGHT, THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL,
GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A REGULAR
WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING, UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

IALY NO LONGER PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201300
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.6 S / 43.9 E
(CINQ DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 4.1 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 65

24H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 75

36H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 220 NO: 120

48H: 22/05/2024 12 UTC: 1.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, AU VU DES IMAGES GEOSTATIONNAIRES
VISIBLE, IALY EST TOUJOURS DANS UNE CONFIGURATION EN CISAILLEMENT ET
UNE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK MONTRE QUE SON INTENSITE EST RESTE
STABLE. L'ANALYSE OBJECTIVE DPRINT DU CIMSS A PARTIR D'IMAGES
INFRA-ROUGE CONFIRME LA TENDANCE STATIONNAIRE EN INTENSITE ALORS QUE
LES ANALYSES ADT ET AIDT DONNENT DES TENDANCES CONTRADICTOIRES. AVEC
CES ELEMENTS, IALY RESTE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC
DES VENTS MAX DE 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAR RAPPORT AUX PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES,
IALY MAINTIENT UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS LE NORD GRACE A LA
PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE
SYSTEME A AMORCE UNE PHASE DE RALENTISSEMENT EN RAISON D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN,
AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR
LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES
COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
NORD-EST. LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLES EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE
PERMETTENT D'ETABLIR UN CONSONSUS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE DE SECTEUR NORD
POUR UN SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGEES, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE
SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DONC MAINTENIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES UNE INTENSITE STABLE.
PUIS LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS
IMPACTANT, INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME,
CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE A PARTIR DE
MARDI MATIN, JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 43.9 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 00 UTC:
4.1 S / 43.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 12 UTC:
3.1 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.3 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 3.3 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY HAS CONTINUED TO SUFFER FROM WIND SHEAR
(ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 00Z AT 12KT FROM THE NORTHEAST) WHICH HAS,
HOWEVER, EASED CONSIDERABLY. THE 37 GHZ DSMP F-17 MICROWAVE IMAGES
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH AN EYE. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
(ADT, AIDT, SATCON) ARE ALSO DOWN. WITH THESE ELEMENTS, IALY REMAINS
AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40KT,
AND DECREASING.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
IALY SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE AFRICAN RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE METEOR. FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS, AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN OVER BY THE LOWER LAYERS,
DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, OFF THE COAST OF KENYA.
THE OVERALL EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN FORECASTS ENABLE US TO ESTABLISH A
CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERLY TRACK FOR A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAR
FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED, WITH
DEEP, MODERATE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT THESE ARE
COUNTERBALANCED BY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION
CHANNELS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS, AS WELL AS STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. OVER THE DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE MAINTAIN A
STABLE INTENSITY. THEN FROM THE END OF THE DAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD
BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE, UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

IALY NO LONGER PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
(SIX DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 4.3 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 65

24H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 3.3 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 75

36H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 2.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 220 NO: 120

48H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, IALY CONTINUE A SOUFFRIR DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 00Z A 12KT
DE NORD-EST) QUI S'EST TOUTEFOIS SENSIBLEMENT ATTENUA . LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES DSMP F-17 DE 37 GHZ PERMETTENT DIFFICILEMENT DE
DISTINGUER UN OEIL. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (ADT, AIDT,
SATCON) SONT AUSSI A LA BAISSE. AVEC CES ELEMENTS, IALY RESTE AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE 40KT, EN
BAISSSE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, SINON, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT AUX
PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES, IALY DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UNE DIRECTION GENERALE
VERS LE NORD GRACE A LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR
NEANMOINS EN JOURNEE EN RAISON D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE
AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU
METEORE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE
FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT AMENER
LE SYSTEME PROCHE DE L'EQUATEUR, AU LARGE DES COTES DU KENYA. LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE PERMETTRE D'ETABLIR UN
CONSONSUS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE DE SECTEUR NORD POUR UN SYSTEME QUI
DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGEES, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE
SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. AU COURS DE LA
JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE STABLE. PUIS
A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE JOURNEE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS
IMPACTANT, INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME,
CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE, JUSQU'A SA
DISSIPATION DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 18 UTC:
4.3 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 06 UTC:
3.3 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200106
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8 S / 44.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 55

24H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 3.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IALY SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED TO BE AFFECTED BY
WIND SHEAR (SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 18Z AT 17KT NORTHEAST).
INDEED, IN BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO BE REJECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE
GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2239 SHOWS A CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE ON 37GHZ,
BUT IT'S STARTING TO DISAPPEAR ON 87GHZ. IT ALSO SHOWS A TILT OF
AROUND 15 NM. THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) ARE
ALSO ON THE DECLINE. WITH THESE ELEMENTS, IALY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO
A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE MICROWAVE FROM 2239 REPLACED THE CENTER, SO
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND OBSERVATION. OTHERWISE, LITTLE
CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. IALY SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DURING THE DAY DUE
TO A WEAKENING OF THE AFRICAN RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE METEOR. FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN OVER BY THE LOWER LAYERS,
DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, OFF THE COAST OF KENYA.
THE OVERALL EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN FORECASTS REMAIN SCATTERED ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK, BUT NONETHELESS ALLOW US TO ASSERT THAT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED, WITH
DEEP, MODERATE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT THESE ARE
COUNTERBALANCED BY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION
CHANNELS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS, AS WELL AS STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. OVER THE DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE MAINTAIN A
STABLE INTENSITY. THEN FROM THE END OF THE DAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD
BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE, UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

IALY NO LONGER PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200106
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.8 S / 44.8 E
(SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 55

24H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 3.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 2.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, IALY SEMBLE COMMENCER A SOUFFRIR DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 18Z A 17KT
DE NORD-EST). EN EFFET, AUSSI BIEN SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE QUE
MICRO-ONDES, LA CONVECTION COMMENCE A ETRE REJETEE A L'OUEST ET AU
SUD DU CENTRE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GCOM DE 2239 MONTRE UN OEIL BIEN
VISIBLE SUR LA 37GHZ MAIS IL COMMENCE A S'EFFACER SUR LA 87GHZ. DE
PLUS ELLE MET EN EVIDENCE LA PRESENCE D'UN TILT D'ENVIRON 15 NM. LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) SONT AUSSI A LA
BAISSE. AVEC CES ELEMENTS, IALY EST DONC RETROGRADEE AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE 45KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA MICRO-ONDES DE 2239 A PERMIS DE REPLACE
LE CENTRE ET LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE EST DONC LEGEREMENT EN RETARD PAR
RAPPORT A L'OBSERVATION. SINON, PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA
PHILOSOPHIE. IALY DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS LE
NORD GRACE A LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR NEANMOINS EN
JOURNEE EN RAISON D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU
GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES
ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT AMENER LE SYSTEME
PROCHE DE L'EQUATEUR, AU LARGE DES COTES DU KENYA. LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME, MAIS PERMETTENT NEANMOINS D'AFFIRMER QUE LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGEES, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE
SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. AU COURS DE LA
JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE STABLE. PUIS
A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE JOURNEE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS
IMPACTANT, INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME,
CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE, JUSQU'A SA
DISSIPATION DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200011
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8 S / 44.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 12 UTC:
5.3 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/21 AT 00 UTC:
3.8 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 45.1 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120

72H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS BECOME MUCH
MORE COMPACT, LOSING SOME OF ITS BANDED STRUCTURE AND MOVING TOWARDS
A CDO PATTERN. HOWEVER, A DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A BAND OF 8/10 WITH A
DT OF 3.5. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) ARE DOWN TO BETWEEN
55 AND 65KT 1-MINUTE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT THE
STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, APART FROM THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM
SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN ITS TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY,
SHIFTING THE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE. IALY SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION, DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS SET TO SLOW FROM TOMORROW AS THE AFRICAN RIDGE
WEAKENS AND AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE SWELLS JUST NORTH OF THE METEOR. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN
OVER BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING ALONG
THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE
EQUATOR, OFF THE COAST OF KENYA. THE OVERALL EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
FORECASTS REMAIN SCATTERED ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, BUT NONETHELESS
ALLOW US TO ASSERT THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY
INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED, WITH
DEEP, MODERATE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST (CIMSS ANALYSIS
AT 15KT OF NORTHEAST), BUT THESE ARE OFFSET BY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS,
AS WELL AS STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE MAINTAIN A STABLE INTENSITY. THEN FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY
INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF
THE STRUCTURE, UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY AT THE LATEST.

IALY NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.2 S / 45.1 E
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 120

72H: 22/05/2024 18 UTC: 1.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE IALY
S'EST NETTEMENT COMPACTEE EN PERDANT UN PEU SA STRUCTURE EN BANDES
POUR ALLER VERS UNE STRUCTURE EN CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE.
CEPENDANT, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DONNE UNE BANDE DE 8/10 AVEC UN DT DE
3.5. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) SONT EN BAISSE ENTRE
55 ET 65KT UNE MINUTE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, SI CE N'EST QUE LE
SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR ENTAME SON VIRAGE VERS LE NORD UN PEU PLUS
LENTEMENT, DECALANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE UN PEU PLUS A L'OUEST QUE
LA PRECEDENTE. IALY DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS LE
NORD GRACE A LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR NEANMOINS A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN EN RAISON D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE
AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU
METEORE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE
FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT AMENER
LE SYSTEME PROCHE DE L'EQUATEUR, AU LARGE DES COTES DU KENYA. LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME, MAIS PERMETTENT NEANMOINS D'AFFIRMER QUE
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGEES, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST (ANALYSE DU CIMSS A 15KT NORD-EST), MAIS
CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT DONC MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE STABLE. PUIS A PARTIR DE LUNDI
EN FIN DE JOURNEE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT,
INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE, JUSQU'A SA DISSIPATION
EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI AU PLUS TARD.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191812
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 45.1 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 06 UTC:
6.0 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 18 UTC:
4.9 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 191300
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 240519123304
2024051912 24S IALY 007 01 280 07 SATL 020
T000 074S 0452E 055 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 065S 0447E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 054S 0444E 045 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 046S 0441E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 037S 0439E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 7.4S 45.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S 45.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 6.5S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 5.4S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 4.6S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 3.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 45.1E.
19MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
2424051400 90S 543E 20
2424051406 96S 538E 20
2424051412 91S 530E 25
2424051418 85S 529E 25
2424051500 80S 524E 25
2424051506 79S 528E 30
2424051512 82S 530E 30
2424051518 81S 531E 30
2424051600 83S 531E 30
2424051606 86S 529E 35
2424051612 91S 525E 40
2424051618 91S 522E 40
2424051700 91S 518E 40
2424051706 90S 510E 45
2424051712 88S 504E 40
2424051718 85S 499E 40
2424051800 80S 492E 40
2424051806 79S 486E 40
2424051812 79S 478E 45
2424051818 77S 471E 50
2424051818 77S 471E 50
2424051900 75S 466E 55
2424051900 75S 466E 55
2424051906 75S 459E 55
2424051906 75S 459E 55
2424051912 74S 452E 55
2424051912 74S 452E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 191300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 7.4S 45.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S 45.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 6.5S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 5.4S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 4.6S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 3.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 45.1E.
19MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191330 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 2.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-

THE 0644Z ASCAT-B SWATH WHICH BECAME AVAILABLE SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS TIME, ENABLED THE ANALYSIS TO BE ADJUSTED. IN FACT, IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR FROM THE NORTH (AROUND 20 KT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMMS DATA) HAS HAD MORE INFLUENCE THAN
EXPECTED ON THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, AVERAGE
WINDS OF 45/50 KT MAX ARE PRESENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT 0644Z, THE UPDATED
WINDS EXTENSIONS AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR 06UTC HAVE THEREFORE
BEEN REVISED ACCORDINGLY IN BEST-TRACK TRACK.
THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE 06Z HAS RETRACTED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED UP, WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE HOT SPOT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BURST. THE GCOM-W1-AMSR2
MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1012Z CONFIRMS THE TILT OF THE STRUCTURE BETWEEN
THE LOW LAYER AND THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND SHOWS THE 85 GHZ
CONVECTIVE RING ERODED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH WAS NOT THE
CASE THIS MORNING ON THE F-17 FROM 0335Z. THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 50KT, CLOSE TO THE US SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND
OBJECTIVE DATA SUCH AS D-MINT AND SATCON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, APART FROM THE FACT THAT THIS
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN A TURN TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST, SLOWING SLIGHTLY IN ITS COURSE. IALY SHOULD NOW BE
MOVING IN A GENERALLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION, THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
PACE SHOULD SLOW FROM TOMORROW AS THE AFRICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SWELLS JUST NORTH OF THE METEOR. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN OVER BY
THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE
AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR,
OFF THE COAST OF KENYA. THE OVERALL EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN FORECASTS
REMAIN SCATTERED ON THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY, BUT NEVERTHELESS ALLOW
US TO ASSERT THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED
LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED, WITH
DEEP, MODERATE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT THESE ARE
COUNTERBALANCED BY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH TWO EVACUATION
CHANNELS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS, AND STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
AN EAST-WEST TILT OF THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE OF THE ORDER OF 16 MN IS
CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE AMSR2 OF 1012Z. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM, BUT CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR A STABLE INTENSITY AT
THE THRESHOLD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, IN VIEW OF THE UPPER-AIR
STRESS WHICH IS SET TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH A CONSENSUS; ONLY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMIC MODELS (DSHA, RIPA, ST5D) SUGGEST A CLEAR
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR
SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE.

IALY NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191330 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 4.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 3.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 140 NO: 85

72H: 22/05/2024 12 UTC: 2.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-

LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 0644Z, DISPONIBLE PEU APRES LE RESEAU, A PERMIS
D'AJUSTER L'ANALYSE. EN EFFET, IL SEMBLERAIT QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD (DE L'ODRE DE 20 KT SELON LES
DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMMS) AIT EU PLUS D'INFLUENCE QUE PRA VU SUR LA
STRUCTURE VERTICALE DU SYSTEME. EN EFFET, DES VENTS MOYENS DE 45/50
KT MAX SONT PRESENTS, NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A 0644Z, LA MISE A JOUR DES
EXTENSIONS ET L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DE 06UTC ONT DONC ETE REVUES
EN CE SENS EN BEST-TRACK.
LA CONFIGURATION NAGEUSE DEPUIS 06Z S'EST RETRACTEE ET LES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX SE SONT RECHAUFFES, AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SITUE
NON LOIN DU POINT CHAUD AU SUD DU BURST CONVECTIF PRINCIPAL. LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDE GCOM-W1- AMSR2 DE 1012Z CONFIRME LE TILT DE LA STRUCTURE
ENTRE LA BASSE COUCHE ET LA MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET MONTRE L'ANNEAU
CONVECTIF EN 85 GHZ ERRODE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, CE QUI N'ETAIT
PAS LE CAS CE MATIN SUR LA F-17 DE 0335Z. L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE
D'INTENSITE EST PORTEE A 50KT, PROCHE DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES
AMERICAINES ET DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES TELLES QUE LE D-MINT ET LE
SATCON.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, SI CE N'EST QUE LE
SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR ENTAME CET APRES-MIDI UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, EN ACCUSANT UN LEGER RALENTISSEMENT DANS SA
COURSE. IALY DEVRAIT MAINTENANT POUR SUIVRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE
VERS LE NORD GRACE A LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SITUEE A
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE TEMPO DEVRAIT RALENTIR NEANMOINS A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN EN RAISON D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU
GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
EST REPRIS PAR LES BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES ALIZES
LONGEANT LES COTES AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT AMENER LE SYSTEME PROCHE
DE L'EQUATEUR, AU LARGE DES COTES DU KENYA. LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE
EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME, MAIS PERMETTENT NEANMOINS D'AFFIRMER QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
EVOLUER LOIN DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGEES, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE
SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. UN TILT DE LA
STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME AXE EST-OUEST DE L'ORDRE DE 16 MN EST MONTRE
ACTUELLEMENT SUR L'AMSR2 DE 1012Z. AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES,
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT LEGEREMENT S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'AU STADE SUPERIEUR
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, MAIS LES PREVISIONS ACTUELLES TABLENT
DAVANTAGE SUR UNE INTENSITE STABLE AU SEUIL DU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL, AU VU DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE QUI DEVRAIT PERDURER ET
S'INTENSIFIER EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES
PEINENT A AFFICHER UN CONSENSUS ; SEULS LES MODELES
STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES (DSHA, RIPA, ST5D) SUGGERENT UNE NETTE
INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT, INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC
AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA
STRUCTURE.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191325
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 2.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MARKED BY
NUMEROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER, COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE
CLOUDS ARE CURVING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN OVERNIGHT, WITH A HOT SPOT ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION IN PROGRESS.
THE GPM-GMI DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASS HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, CONFIRMING NOT ONLY THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT ALSO THE
TILT WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS POINTS A MET/PT OF 4.0+,
I.E. THE UPPER STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THIS ANALYSIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ADT/AIDT OBJECTIVE DATA.

AFTER MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO MAKE
A MORE OR LESS SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THAN SUGGESTED IN OUR LAST FORECAST.
THIS MOVEMENT IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE PACE IS SET TO SLOW FROM
TOMORROW, HOWEVER, AS THE AFRICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE SWELLS JUST NORTH OF THE METEOR. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN OVER BY THE LOWER LAYERS,
DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, OFF THE COAST OF KENYA.
THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS REMAIN SCATTERED ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK, BUT NEVERTHELESS ALLOW US TO ASSERT THAT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, BUT THIS IS COUNTERBALANCED BY A
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND A STRONG OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A SLIGHT TILT IN THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST IS TRICKY, BECAUSE DESPITE A TEMPORARY DROP IN DEEP
VERTICALWIND SHEAR WHICH COULD RIGHTLY ALLOW FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SHOULD BE FACED WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS THEREFORE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, EVEN IF
THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES STABLE INTENSITY AT THE UPPER,
SEVERE-STORM STAGE. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH A
CONSENSUS; ONLY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMIC MODELS (DSHA, RIPA) SUGGEST A
CLEAR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE
SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE.

IALY NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191325
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 4.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 3.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 140 NO: 85

72H: 22/05/2024 12 UTC: 2.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-

ON NOTE QU'AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DU SYSTEME A ETE MARQUEE PAR DE NOMBREUX BURSTS DE CONVECTION A
PROXIMITE OUEST DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ACCOMPAGNES PAR UN
REFROIDISSEMENT NOTABLE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. LES NUAGES ADOPTENT UN
PEU PLUS DE COURBURE QU'AU COURS DE LA NUIT, AINSI QU'UN POINT CHAUD
SUR LES TOUTES DERNIA RES ANIMATIONS SATELLITAIRES MONTRANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION EN COURS. LA PASSE DIFFUSIOMETRIQUE GPM-GMI A PERMIS
DE LOCALISER AVEC UNE BONNE CONFIANCE LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES ET PERMET EN OUTRE DE CONFIRMER NON SEULEMENT LA
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, MAIS AUSSI LE TILTE
EXISTANT AVEC LES BASSES COUCHES EN RAISON D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE
DE SECTEUR NORD-EST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE POINTE UN MET/PT DE
4.0+, SOIT AU STADE SUPEREUR DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. CETTE
ANALYSE EST CONFORTEE PAR LES DONNEES OBJETIVES AMERICAINES ADT/AIDT.

APRES S'ETRE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-NORD-EST AU COURS DE LA
NUIT PRECEDENTE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
HEURES UN VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS SERRE EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST,
A UN RYTHME LEGEREMENT PLUS SOUTENU QUE PROPOSE LORS DE NOS
DERNIERES PREVISIONS. CE DEPLACEMENT EST RENDU POSSIBLE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE PRESENTE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE
TEMPO DEVRAIT RALENTIR NEANMOINS A PARTIR DE DEMAIN EN RAISON D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR LES
BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES
AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT AMENER LE SYSTEME PROCHE DE L'EQUATEUR, AU
LARGE DES COTES DU KENYA. LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE ET
AMERICAINE RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME, MAIS
PERMETTENT NEANMOINS D'AFFIRMER QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN
DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST MODERE MAIS
CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ON OBSERVE TOUTEFOIS UN LEGER TILT DE LA
STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES. AU COURS
DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, LA PREVISION D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
EST RENDUE DELICATE, CAR MALGRE UNE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND QUI POURRAIT A JUSTE TITRE PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION
SUPPLEMENTAIRE, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE CONFRONTER A UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST MODERE A FORT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST DONC PAS TOTALEMENT EXCLU MEME SI LA
PRESENTE PREVISION, TABLE PLUTOT SUR UNE INTENSITE STABLE, AU STADE
SUPERIEUR DE FORTE TEMPETE. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PEINENT A
AFFICHER UN CONSENSUS ; SEULS LES MODELES STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES
(DSHA, RIPA) SUGGERENT UNE NETTE INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT,
INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 7.4S 45.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S 45.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 6.5S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 5.4S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 4.6S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 3.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 45.1E.
19MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 240519123304
2024051912 24S IALY 007 01 280 07 SATL 020
T000 074S 0452E 055 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 065S 0447E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 054S 0444E 045 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 046S 0441E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 037S 0439E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 7.4S 45.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S 45.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 6.5S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 5.4S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 4.6S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 3.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 45.1E.
19MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
2424051400 90S 543E 20
2424051406 96S 538E 20
2424051412 91S 530E 25
2424051418 85S 529E 25
2424051500 80S 524E 25
2424051506 79S 528E 30
2424051512 82S 530E 30
2424051518 81S 531E 30
2424051600 83S 531E 30
2424051606 86S 529E 35
2424051612 91S 525E 40
2424051618 91S 522E 40
2424051700 91S 518E 40
2424051706 90S 510E 45
2424051712 88S 504E 40
2424051718 85S 499E 40
2424051800 80S 492E 40
2424051806 79S 486E 40
2424051812 79S 478E 45
2424051818 77S 471E 50
2424051818 77S 471E 50
2424051900 75S 466E 55
2424051900 75S 466E 55
2424051906 75S 459E 55
2424051906 75S 459E 55
2424051912 74S 452E 55
2424051912 74S 452E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191213
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 00 UTC:
6.2 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 12 UTC:
5.2 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.9 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MARKED BY
NUMEROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER, COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE
CLOUDS ARE CURVING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN OVERNIGHT, WITH A HOT SPOT ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION IN PROGRESS.
THE GPM-GMI DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASS HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, CONFIRMING NOT ONLY THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT ALSO THE
TILT WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS POINTS A MET/PT OF 4.0+,
I.E. THE UPPER STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THIS ANALYSIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ADT/AIDT OBJECTIVE DATA.

AFTER MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO MAKE
A MORE OR LESS SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THAN SUGGESTED IN OUR LAST FORECAST.
THIS MOVEMENT IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE PACE IS SET TO SLOW FROM
TOMORROW, HOWEVER, AS THE AFRICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE SWELLS JUST NORTH OF THE METEOR. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN OVER BY THE LOWER LAYERS,
DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, OFF THE COAST OF KENYA.
THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS REMAIN SCATTERED ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK, BUT NEVERTHELESS ALLOW US TO ASSERT THAT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, BUT THIS IS COUNTERBALANCED BY A
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND A STRONG OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A SLIGHT TILT IN THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST IS TRICKY, BECAUSE DESPITE A TEMPORARY DROP IN DEEP
VERTICALWIND SHEAR WHICH COULD RIGHTLY ALLOW FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SHOULD BE FACED WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS THEREFORE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, EVEN IF
THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES STABLE INTENSITY AT THE UPPER,
SEVERE-STORM STAGE. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH A
CONSENSUS; ONLY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMIC MODELS (DSHA, RIPA) SUGGEST A
CLEAR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE
SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE.

IALY NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190643
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 45.9 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 55

72H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

ON NOTE QU'AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DU SYSTEME A ETE MARQUEE PAR DE NOMBREUX BURSTS DE CONVECTION A
PROXIMITE OUEST DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ACCOMPAGNES PAR UN
REFROIDISSEMENT NOTABLE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. LES NUAGES ADOPTENT UN
PEU PLUS DE COURBURE QU'AU COURS DE LA NUIT, AINSI QU'UN POINT CHAUD
SUR LES TOUTES DERNIA RES ANIMATIONS SATELLITAIRES MONTRANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION EN COURS. LA PASSE DIFFUSIOMETRIQUE GPM-GMI A PERMIS
DE LOCALISER AVEC UNE BONNE CONFIANCE LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES ET PERMET EN OUTRE DE CONFIRMER NON SEULEMENT LA
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, MAIS AUSSI LE TILTE
EXISTANT AVEC LES BASSES COUCHES EN RAISON D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE
DE SECTEUR NORD-EST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE POINTE UN MET/PT DE
4.0+, SOIT AU STADE SUPEREUR DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. CETTE
ANALYSE EST CONFORTEE PAR LES DONNEES OBJETIVES AMERICAINES ADT/AIDT.

APRES S'ETRE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-NORD-EST AU COURS DE LA
NUIT PRECEDENTE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
HEURES UN VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS SERRE EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST,
A UN RYTHME LEGEREMENT PLUS SOUTENU QUE PROPOSE LORS DE NOS
DERNIERES PREVISIONS. CE DEPLACEMENT EST RENDU POSSIBLE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE PRESENTE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE
TEMPO DEVRAIT RALENTIR NEANMOINS A PARTIR DE DEMAIN EN RAISON D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AFRICAINE ET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE JUSTE AU NORD DU METEORE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR LES
BASSES COUCHES, DOMINEES PAR LE FLUX DES ALIZES LONGEANT LES COTES
AFRICAINES, QUI DEVRAIENT AMENER LE SYSTEME PROCHE DE L'EQUATEUR, AU
LARGE DES COTES DU KENYA. LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE ET
AMERICAINE RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME, MAIS
PERMETTENT NEANMOINS D'AFFIRMER QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER LOIN
DE TOUTES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST MODERE MAIS
CELLES-CI SONT CONTREBALANCEES PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
AVEC DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE SUD ET OUEST AINSI QU'UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ON OBSERVE TOUTEFOIS UN LEGER TILT DE LA
STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES. AU COURS
DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, LA PREVISION D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
EST RENDUE DELICATE, CAR MALGRE UNE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND QUI POURRAIT A JUSTE TITRE PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION
SUPPLEMENTAIRE, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE CONFRONTER A UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST MODERE A FORT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST DONC PAS TOTALEMENT EXCLU MEME SI LA
PRESENTE PREVISION, TABLE PLUTOT SUR UNE INTENSITE STABLE, AU STADE
SUPERIEUR DE FORTE TEMPETE. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PEINENT A
AFFICHER UN CONSENSUS ; SEULS LES MODELES STATISTICO-DYNAMIQUES
(DSHA, RIPA) SUGGERENT UNE NETTE INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT,
INJECTANT GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DE LA STRUCTURE.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190618
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.9 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 18 UTC:
6.3 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 06 UTC:
5.6 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 46.4 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 6.8 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 155 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED LARGELY
UNCHANGED, WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS).THE 2157Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGES CONFIRM THE PERSISTENCE OF A SKETCHY EYE ON THE EDGE
OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, WITH A TILT BETWEEN 89GHZ AND 37GHZ.
DATA FROM THE 18Z AND 19Z ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS AT 18Z. THE INTENSITY WAS THEREFORE INCREASED TO
50KT.

IALY IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-WESTWARDS AND THEN NORTHWARDS TONIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE MAINTAINING SOUTH-WEST.
HOWEVER, MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE TO CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AT LONGER RANGES, THE STEERING FLOW DESCENDS
INTO THE LOWER LAYERS, AND BECOMES DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCES SHOW LESS SPREAD.
HOWEVER, THE MOTION SPEED IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED IN PART ON THE IFS MODEL, ITS ENSEMBLE AND THE LATEST GFS RUN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND WARM WATERS. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL, THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH A CONSENSUS, WITH THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH A
DEEPENING TREND, IN CONTRAST TO THE AMERICAN MODELS (GFS, HWRF,
HAFS). FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL,
LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING BY TUESDAY.

IALY NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/11/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 46.4 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 6.8 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 20/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 55

72H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 2.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 155 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU
EVOLUE AVEC UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LA
PLUS MARQUEE SE MAINTIENT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST FORT
(20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS). LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2157Z,
CONFIRMENT LA PERSISTENCE D'UNE EBAUCHE D'OEIL EN BORDURE DE LA
CONVECTION LA PLUS MARQUEE AVEC EGALEMENT UN TILT ENTRE LA 89GHZ ET
LA 37GHZ. LES DONNEES DES PASSES ASCAT DE 18Z ET 19Z ONT CONFIRME LA
PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DES 18Z. L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE
REHAUSSEE A 50KT.

IALY SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS VERS LE NORD A
PARTIR DE CE SOIR ET EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE GUIDEE PAR LA
DORSALE SE MAINTENANT AU SUD-OUEST. TOUTEFOIS LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT
RALENTIR EN RAISON DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LA
PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. EN LIEN AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES, ET DEVIENT PILOTE PAR LE
FLUX D'ALIZE LONGEANT LA COTE AFRICAINE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
PRESENTENT UNE DISPERSION MOINS IMPORTANTE. TOUTEFOIS LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT RESTE ENCORE RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE. CETTE PREVISION
S'APPUIE NOTAMMENT SUR LE MODELE IFS ET SON ENSEMBLE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST MODERE A FORT
MAIS UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DES EAUX CHAUDES. UNE
BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE
INTENSIFICATION SUPPLEMENTAIRE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST
PAS EXCLU. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PEINENT CEPENDANT A AFFICHER UN
CONSENSUS, AVEC LE MODELE EUROPEEN IFS ASSEZ ISOLE AVEC UN SCENARIO
D'INTENSIFICATION CONTRAIREMENT AUX MODELES AMERICAINS (GFS, HWRF,
HAFS). A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS
IMPACTANT CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT NOTABLE D'ICI MARDI.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190022
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 46.4 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 12 UTC:
6.8 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/20 AT 00 UTC:
6.0 S / 45.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 47.1 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 5.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED LARGELY
UNCHANGED, WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS). THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY 1541Z GMI MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THIS PASS SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF A SKETCH OF AN EYE IN 89GHZ. PENDING MORE RELIABLE DATA,
THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 3.5-. HOWEVER, THE FIRST 18Z ASCAT DATA, ARRIVED
AFTER THE DEADLINE, MAY SUGGEST AN INTENSITY CLOSER TO 50KT.

IALY IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IALY SHOULD PASS JUST
OVER 200KM NORTH OF THE ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA ISLANDS. THE
TRACK WILL BEND NORTH-WESTWARDS AND THEN NORTHWARDS FROM SUNDAY
EVENING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE MAINTAINING
SOUTH-WEST. HOWEVER, MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AT LONGER RANGES, THE STEERING FLOW
DESCENDS INTO THE LOWER LAYERS, AND BECOMES DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST. THE LATEST SIMULATIONS STILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY. THIS LATEST
FORECAST IS MORE CLOSELY BASED ON THE IFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND WARM WATERS. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY, AT LEAST TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE, WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO REACH A CONSENSUS, WITH THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL FAIRLY
ISOLATED WITH AN DEEPENING TREND, IN CONTRAST TO THE AMERICAN MODELS
(GFS, HWRF, HAFS). FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE
IMPACTFUL, LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING BY TUESDAY.

IALY NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.8 S / 47.1 E
(SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2024 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 5.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU
EVOLUE AVEC UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LA
PLUS MARQUEE SE MAINTIENT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST EN
LIEN AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-EST FORT
(20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS). CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 1541Z. TOUTEFOIS, ON PEUT NOTER LA PRESENCE SUR
CETTE DERNIERE PASSE D'UNE EBAUCHE D'OEIL EN 89GHZ. EN ATTENDANT DES
DONNEES PLUS FIABLES, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 45KT EN ACCORD AVEC
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A 3.5-. TOUTEFOIS LES PREMIERES DONNEES
DISPONIBLE DE LA PASSE ASCAT 18Z, ARRIVEES APRES LE RESEAU, POURRAIT
SUGGERER UNE INTENSITE PLUS PROCHE DES 50KT

IALY SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, IALY DEVRAIT
AINSI PASSER A UN PEU PLUS DE 200KM AU LARGE DU NORD DES ILES ASTOVE,
COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA. LA TRAJECTOIRE SE RECOURBERA VERS LE NORD-OUEST
PUIS NORD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR ET EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE
GUIDEE PAR LA DORSALE SE MAINTENANT AU SUD-OUEST. TOUTEFOIS LE
DEPLACEMENT RESTERA LENT EN RAISON DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES, ET DEVIENT PILOTER
PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZE LONGEANT LA COTE AFRICAINE. LES DERNIERES
SIMULATIONS CONSERVENT UNE DISPERSION ENCORE IMPORTANTE EN RAISON DES
DIFFERENCES D'INTENSITE PREVUE. CETTE DERNIERE PREVISION S'APPUIE
PLUS SUR LE MODELE IFS ET SON ENSEMBLE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST MODERE A FORT
MAIS UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DES EAUX CHAUDES. UNE
BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE
INTENSIFICATION AU MOINS JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PEINENT CEPENDANT
A AFFICHER UN CONSENSUS, AVEC LE MODELE EUROPEEN IFS ASSEZ ISOLE AVEC
UN SCENARIO D'INTENSIFICATION CONTRAIREMENT AUX MODELES AMERICAINS
(GFS, HWRF, HAFS). A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR
PLUS IMPACTANT CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT NOTABLE D'ICI MARDI.

IALY NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181815
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 47.1 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 06 UTC:
7.4 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 18 UTC:
6.7 S / 45.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS: IALY MAINTAINS A CDO PATTERN.
PERIPHERAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE OUTER
ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES, AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE SPATIALLY EXTENDED
THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION, VISIBLE DVORAK PT
ANALYSIS CAN REACH 3.5 WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND. A CI OF 3.5- IS
THEREFORE CHOSEN, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE ADT ANALYSES, DEFINING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45KT. IALY IS STILL AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD.

IALY IS CURRENTLY STILL MOVING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A PERIOD OF 18 HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD, IALY
SHOULD PASS JUST OVER 200KM OFF THE NORTHEAST OF THE ASTOVE,
COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
FLOW, IALY IS MOVING QUITE SLOWLY, BUT WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION,
SLIGHTLY MODIFYING THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. THE TRACK WILL
CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH, FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDED BY A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER AFRICA. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER ITS
48-HOUR INTERVALS, THE STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED AT
LOW LEVELS AND ACCELERATING. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS IMPROVING,
WITH LESS DISPERSION, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTH IS
STILL UNCERTAIN, AS IS THE GREATER SPEED OF MOVEMENT FOR SOME MODELS
FORECASTING A WEAKER SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR (TENDING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO
CIMSS ANALYSES), BUT GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM WATERS THAT
MANAGE TO MAINTAIN NOTABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SHEAR IS SET TO
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING INTO A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE INTENSITY OF THE SHEAR, WHICH COULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED,
LEADING TO LESS INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
AS IALY MOVES WEST-NORTH-WEST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE MORE MARKEDLY. BY MONDAY, THE SHEAR WILL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT, LEADING TO A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

- OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA): NO MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK
WHICH KEEPS SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH
OF THESE ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 100MM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

- MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE): ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS LESS
MARKED THAN PREVIOUSLY, ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE
CONVERGENCE OF FLOWS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM IN 48 HOURS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SAVA REGION, SOUTH OF
SAMBAVA AND NEAR CAPE MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181213
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.8 S / 48.0 E
(SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/05/2024 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65

24H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 20/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

60H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : IALY CONSERVE UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
PERIPHERIQUE TOUCHENT ACTUELLEMENT LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES
SEYCHELLES ET PRESENTE DONC UNE EXTENSION SPATIALE UN PEU PLUS MARQUE
QU'IL Y A 6 HEURES. DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PT
EN VISIBLE PERMET D'ATTEINDRE LE 3.5 AVEC UNE LEGERE TENDANCE
INFERIEURE. UN CI DE 3.5- EST DONC CHOISI, CE QUE CONFIRMENT LES
ANALYSES ADT, DEFINISSANT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT. IALY
EST ENCORE AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

IALY SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET POUR UNE PERIODE DE 18H. AU COURS DE CETTE
PERIODE, IALY DEVRAIT AINSI PASSER A UN PEU PLUS DE 200KM AU LARGE DU
NORD-EST DES ILES ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA CE WEEK-END. AVEC DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS PEU MARQUES, IALY SE DEPLACE ASSEZ LENTEMENT MAIS
MARQUE UNE LEGERE ACCELERATION MODIFIANT UN PEU LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE
APRES 24H. LA TRAJECTOIRE SE RECOURBERA VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR ET EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE GUIDEE PAR
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT SUR L'AFRIQUE. EN LIEN AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME A SES ECHEANCES DE PLUS DE 48H, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR SE LOCALISE PLUS SUR LES BAS NIVEAUX EN S'ACCELERANT. LA
CONFIANCE DANS LES MODELES S'AMELIORE AVEC UNE DISPERSION MOINDRE
BIEN QUE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS LE NORD RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAINE AINSI QUE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PLUS IMPORTANTE POUR
CERTAINS MODELES PREVOYANT UN SYSTEME PLUS FAIBLE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST MODERE
(TENDANT A AUGMENTER D'APRES LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS) MAIS UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DES EAUX CHAUDES QUI ARRIVENT A MAINTENIR
UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE NOTABLE. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR
AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT
JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI DIMANCHE. UNE
INCERTITDE PERSISTE CEPENDANT SUR L'INTENSITE DU CISAILLEMENT QUI
POURRAIT ETRE PLUS MARQUE ET AINSI INDUIRE UNE INTENSIFICATION
MOINDRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. PAR LA SUITE, SUIVANT SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, IALY VA RENCONTRER UN
CISAILLEMENT QUI DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PLUS FRANCHEMENT. A ECHEANCE DE
LUNDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VA DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

- ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA) :
PAS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS, QUI FAIT
PASSER LE SYSTEME SUFFISAMMENT LOIN POUR LAISSER LES CONDITIONS
SEVERES ET LA MER TRES FORTE AU LARGE DU NORD DE CES ILES. DES FORTES
PLUIES DE 100MM SONT TOUTEFOIS ATTENDUES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.

- MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) : BIEN QUE LE SIGNAL SOIT MOINS
MARQUE QUE PRECEDEMMENT, EN MARGE DU SYSTEME, DANS LA CONVERGENCE DES
FLUX, IL EST PREVU DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM EN 48H POUR CE
WEEK-END SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION SAVA, AU SUD DE SAMBAVA ET PRES DU
CAP MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181159
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 00 UTC:
7.7 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 12 UTC:
7.1 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.4 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 7.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.1 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CDO PATTERN, BUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COOLED NEAR THE CENTER, WITH ELECTRICAL
ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. THIS INDICATES
PERCEPTIBLE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST ASCAT DATA REMAIN
PARTIAL AND DO NOT ALLOW MAXIMUM WINDS TO BE ESTIMATED. THE HY-2C
PASS AT 0130UTC PROVIDES VALUES OF 35KT IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. IN VIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE IR AND VISIBLE IMAGE, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO OF 3.0+ CAN BE MADE WITH AN ESTIMATE OF THE
ORDER OF 40KT FOR IALY. IALY THEREFORE STILL RETAINS THE SAME
INTENSITY WHILE MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

LITTLE CHANGE, IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK: IALY IS CURRENTLY STILL
MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, FOR A PERIOD OF 18-24H. DURING THIS PERIOD, IALY SHOULD PASS
OFF THE NORTH-EAST OF THE ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND. IALY IS MOVING QUITE SLOWLY, WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL FLOW.
THEREAFTER, THE TRACK IS SET TO CURVE NORTH-WESTWARDS AND THEN
NORTHWARDS FROM SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDED BY A NEW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AFRICA. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
OVER ITS 48-HOUR INTERVALS, THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE LOCALIZED AT
LOWER LEVELS. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS IMPROVING, WITH LESS
DISPERSION, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE SHEAR (TENDING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES)
BUT GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM WATERS. SHEAR IS SET TO
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING INTO A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SHEAR, WHICH COULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED,
LEADING TO LESS INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
AS IALY MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR.
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER,
LEADING TO A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA): NO MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK
WHICH KEEPS SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH
OF THESE ISLANDS.
- MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE): ON THE BANGS OF THE SYSTEM, IN
THE CONVERGENCE OF FLOWS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM (AND LOCALLY
UP TO 300 MM) IS FORECAST IN 24H ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTH OF SAVA
REGION, SOUTH OF SAMBAVA AND NEAR CAPE MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.8 S / 48.4 E
(SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65

24H: 19/05/2024 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

60H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.1 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME CONSERVE UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, AVEC CEPENDANT UNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI S'EST BIEN REFROIDIE PRES DU CENTRE
ACCOMPAGNEE D'UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE S'INTENSIFIANT AU COURS DES
DEUX DERNIERES HEURES. CELA DENOTE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION
PERCEPTIBLES. LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCAT RESTENT PARTIELLES ET NE
PERMETTENT PAS D'ESTIMER LES VENTS MAXIMAUX. LA PASSE HY-2C DE
0130UTC FOURNIT DES VALEURS DE 35KT DANS UN LARGE SECTEUR SUD. A LA
VUE DE L'EVOLUTION DE L'IMAGE IR ET VISIBLE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO
DE 3.0+ PEUT ETRE FAITE AVEC UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT POUR
IALY. IALY CONSERVE DONC ENCORE UNE MEME INTENSITE TOUT EN SE
DEPLACANT ASSEZ LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT, EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : IALY SE
DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT ENCORE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE NORD
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET POUR UNE PERIODE DE 18-24H. AU COURS DE
CETTE PERIODE, IALY DVRAIT AINSI PASSER AU LARGE DU NORD-EST DES ILES
ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA CE WEEK-END. AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
PEU MARQUES, IALY SE DEPLACE ASSEZ LENTEMENT. PAR LA SUITE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE SE RECOURBER VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR ET EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE GUIDEE PAR
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT SUR L'AFRIQUE. EN LIEN AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME A SES ECHEANCES DE PLUS DE 48H, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR SE LOCALISE PLUS SUR LES BAS NIVEAUX. LA CONFIANCE DANS LES
MODELES S'AMELIORE AVEC UNE DISPERSION MOINDRE BIEN QUE LA
CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS LE NORD RESTE ENCORE INCERTAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE (TENDANT A AUGMENTER
D'APRES LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS) MAIS UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
ET DES EAUX CHAUDES. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DU
WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI DIMANCHE. UNE INCERTITDE PERSISTE
CEPENDANT SUR L'INTENSITE DU CISAILLEMENT QUI POURRAIT ETRE PLUS
MARQUE ET AINSI INDUIRE UNE INTENSIFICATION MOINDRE AU COURS DE
PROCHAINE 24H. PAR LA SUITE, SUIVANT SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, IALY VA RENCONTRER UN CISAILLEMENT QUI DEVRAIT
AUGMENTER. A ECHEANCE DU DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT
VA DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU
MOINS RAPIDE ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
- ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA) :
PAS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS, QUI FAIT
PASSER LE SYSTEME SUFFISAMMENT LOIN POUR LAISSER LES CONDITIONS
SEVERES ET LA MER TRES FORTE AU LARGE DU NORD DE CES ILES.
- MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) : EN MARGE DU SYSTEME, DANS LA
CONVERGENCE DES FLUX, IL EST PREVU DES CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM
(VOIRE LOCALEMENT 300 MM) EN 24H CE SAMEDI SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION
SAVA, AU SUD DE SAMBAVA ET PRES DU CAP MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 180603
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.4 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 18 UTC:
7.8 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 06 UTC:
7.5 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180051
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1 S / 49.2 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.4 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.6 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT A CDO PATTERN. INTENSE
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE EMBEDDED CENTER,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW
OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE OBSERVED TRACK IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO ECMWF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

IALY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND SHOULD THUS TRACK OFF THE NORTHEAST OF ASTOVE,
COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO
CURVE NORTHWARDS FROM SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AFRICA AND
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR BUT GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM
SST. WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY SUNDAY.
THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES AGAINST THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID
WEAKENING BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO AND ALDABRA): NO MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK
WHICH KEEPS SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH
OF THESE ISLANDS.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE): RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM (AND
LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM) IN 24H ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTH OF SAVA
REGION, SOUTH OF SAMBAVA AND NEAR CAPE MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180051
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.1 S / 49.2 E
(HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65

24H: 19/05/2024 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.4 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 5.6 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 4.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. DE LA PUISSANTE CONVECTION S'EST
MAINTENUE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, EN PARTICULIER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 40 KT. LA TRAJECTOIRE OBSERVEE EST PLUS AU NORD QUE LES
PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS ET ASSEZ PROCHE DE LA MODELISATION DU CENTRE
EUROPEEN.

IALY SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, ET DEVRAIT AINSI PASSER AU LARGE DU NORD-EST DES ILES
ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA CE WEEK-END. LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE
SE RECOURBER VERS LE NORD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR ET EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE ENTRE UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT SUR L'AFRIQUE
ET L'EXTREMITE OUEST DU TALWEG PROCHE-EQUATORIAL SUR L'OCEAN INDIEN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE MAIS UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DES EAUX CHAUDES. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
CONTINUER A FAIBLIR AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE D'ICI DIMANCHE. LE DEGRE D'INTENSIFICATION RESTE NEANMOINS
INCERTAIN. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT
AUGMENTER ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
FACE AU CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS
RAPIDE ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO ET ALDABRA) : PAS
D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS, QUI FAIT PASSER LE
SYSTEME SUFFISAMMENT LOIN POUR LAISSER LES CONDITIONS SEVERES ET LA
MER TRES FORTE AU LARGE DU NORD DE CES ILES.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) : CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM
(VOIRE LOCALEMENT 300 MM) EN 24H CE SAMEDI SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION
SAVA, AU SUD DE SAMBAVA ET PRES DU CAP MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 180032
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1 S / 49.2 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 12 UTC:
7.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/19 AT 00 UTC:
7.7 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 49.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85

24H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65

72H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.1 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+ ***THE PREVIOUS CI ANALYSIS HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO 2.5
INSTEAD OF 3.0 FOR FRIDAY 17TH AT 06UTC AND 12UTC***

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VERY POWERFUL CONVECTION HAS RESUMED OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER,
POSSIBLY INDICATING A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF SHEAR EFFECTS. DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, MAINLY BASED ON MET, IS UP TO 2.5+. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40KT, UP FROM 12UTC DUE TO THE CURRENT INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BURST.

IALY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND SHOULD THUS TRACK OFF THE NORTHEAST OF ASTOVE
AND ALDABRA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE NORTHWARDS
FROM SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED,
WITH MODERATE SHEAR BUT GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM WATERS AT
29C, AND IMPROVING CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING INTENSIFICATION UP TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE AROUND SUNDAY. THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN
AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AGAINST THE SHEAR,
LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (ASTOVE AND ALDABRA):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM BETWEEN SATURDAY 12UTC AND SUNDAY
12UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M FROM SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY.
- THE RISK OF REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS IS REVISED DOWNWARDS AND
ESTIMATED VERY LOW.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM (AND LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM) IN 24H ON
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTH OF SAVA REGION, ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5 S / 49.7 E
(HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85

24H: 18/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75

36H: 19/05/2024 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 65

72H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 3.1 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+ ***LE CI DE L'ANALYSE DU VENDREDI 17 A 06UTC ET 12UTC A
ETE CORRIGE A POSTERIORI, ABAISSE A 2.5 AU LIEU DE 3.0***

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE TRES PUISSANTE CONVECTION S'EST
DE NOUVEAU DEVELOPPEE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DU SYSTEME A PROXIMITE
IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, INDIQUANT POSSIBLEMENT UNE LEGERE BAISSE DES
EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK, PRINCIPALEMENT
BASEE SUR LE MET, EST EN HAUSSE A 2.5+. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT
ESTIMES A 40KT, EN HAUSSE PAR RAPPORT A 12UTC EN RAISON DE LA TRES
NETTE INTENSIFICATION DE LA CONVECTION.

IALY SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, ET DEVRAIT AINSI PASSER AU LARGE DU NORD-EST DES ILES
ASTOVE ET ALDABRA CE WEEK-END. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE RECOURBER
VERS LE NORD A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR ET EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT SUR
L'AFRIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE MAIS UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE CONVERGENCE QUI
S'AMELIORE. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR AU COURS DU
WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AUTOUR DE DIMANCHE. LE DEGRE
D'INTENSIFICATION RESTE NEANMOINS INCERTAIN. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT AUGMENTER ET DEVENIR PLUS
IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU CISAILLEMENT,
CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE ENTRE LUNDI ET
MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ASTOVE ET ALDABRA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100 A 200 MM ENTRE SAMEDI 12UTC ET DIMANCHE
12UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M ENTRE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE.
- LE RISQUE D'ATTEINDRE LE COUP DE VENT EST REVU A LA BAISSE ET
ESTIME TRES FAIBLE.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM (LOCALEMENT 300 MM) EN 24H SAMEDI SUR
LE SUD DE LA REGION SAVA, EN PARTICULIER PRES DU CAP MASOALA.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171825
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 49.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 06 UTC:
8.2 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 18 UTC:
7.9 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171205
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 50.3 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 00 UTC:
8.5 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 12 UTC:
8.4 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170737 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75

24H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 75

48H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 95

120H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.7 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM IALY HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED
PATTERN: AT 00Z, THE SHEAR ANALYZED WAS 23KT FROM THE NORTHEAST
(CIMSS ANALYSIS). THE GPM-GMI MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0258Z SHOWS A
CIRCULATION CLOSING IN THE LOWER LAYERS, POSITIONING THE CENTER 30 MN
FROM THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURE SHOWS CONTRACTIONARY ELEMENTS IN THE 24-HOUR EVOLUTION, WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTION BUT ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE
DIVERGENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. BUT
THE SYMMETRIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LEADS US TO INCREASE
THE CI TO 3.0 WHILE MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 40KT.

N TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE. IALY IS MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND COMPETITION WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE, LOCATED
TOWARDS SOMALIA, WILL BECOME ALL THE MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE
FORECAST TRACK MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST OF FARQUHAR ATOLL TOWARDS
ASTOVE AND ALDABRA IN THE SHORT TERM, BEFORE BECOMING HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS, AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE STRONG
DISPERSION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY TURN
SOUTHEAST BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 250 MM BY SUNDAY,LOCALLY 350 MM IN 48
HOURS.
- GALES LIKELY TODAY UP TO 12UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M TODAY.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE) :
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR TODAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170737 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75

24H: 18/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 75

36H: 18/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 75

48H: 19/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

72H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 95

120H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.7 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE IALY A GARDE
UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE, EN EFFET, A 00Z LE CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE
ETAIT DE 23KT DE NORD-EST (ANALYSE DU CIMSS). L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES
GPM-GMI DE 0258Z PRESENTE UNE CIRCULATION QUI SE FERME EN BASSES
COUCHES ET PERMET DE POSITIONNER LE CENTRE A 30 MN EN BORDURE
NORD-EST DE LA CONVECTION. L'IMAGE SATELLITE INFRAROUGE MONTRE DES
ELEMENTS CONTRACDICTOIRES SUR L'EVOLUTION EN 24H, AVEC UNE LEGERE
DIMINUTION DE LA CONVECTION MAIS AUSSI L'APPARITION D'UNE BELLE
DIVERGENCE DES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. MAIS LA
SYMETRISATION DE LA CIRCULATION EN BASSES COUCHES NOUS ENGAGE A
AUGMENTER LE CI A 3.0 EN CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE A 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU D'EVOLUTION. IALY SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE
CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. CETTE DERNIERE, SITUEE VERS LA SOMALIE, VA
DEVENIR D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI
POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PASSE S'ELOIGNE A L'OUEST DE L'ATOLL FARQUHAR POUR SE
RAPPROCHER D'ASTOVE ET ALDABRA A COURT TERME PUIS DEVIENT TRES
INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA FORTE
DISPERSION DANS LES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, AVEC
UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ORIENTER
TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST AVANT DE REPARTIR VERS
LE NORD. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 250 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE, LOCALEMENT 350 MM
EN 48H.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE AUJOUR'HUI JUSQU'A 12UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M AUJOURD'HUI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-150 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE AUJOURD'HUI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170732
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75

24H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 75

48H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 95

120H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.7 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM IALY HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED
PATTERN: AT 00Z, THE SHEAR ANALYZED WAS 23KT FROM THE NORTHEAST
(CIMSS ANALYSIS). THE GPM-GMI MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0258Z SHOWS A
CIRCULATION CLOSING IN THE LOWER LAYERS, POSITIONING THE CENTER 30 MN
FROM THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURE SHOWS CONTRACTIONARY ELEMENTS IN THE 24-HOUR EVOLUTION, WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTION BUT ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE
DIVERGENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. BUT
THE SYMMETRIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LEADS US TO INCREASE
THE CI TO 3.0 WHILE MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 40KT.

N TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE. IALY IS MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND COMPETITION WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE, LOCATED
TOWARDS SOMALIA, WILL BECOME ALL THE MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE
FORECAST TRACK MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST OF FARQUHAR ATOLL TOWARDS
ASTOVE AND ALDABRA IN THE SHORT TERM, BEFORE BECOMING HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS, AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE STRONG
DISPERSION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY TURN
SOUTHEAST BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 250 MM BY SUNDAY,LOCALLY 350 MM IN 48
HOURS.
- GALES LIKELY TODAY UP TO 12UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M TODAY.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE) :
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR TODAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170732
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75

24H: 18/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 75

36H: 18/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 75

48H: 19/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

72H: 20/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2024 06 UTC: 4.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 95

120H: 22/05/2024 06 UTC: 2.7 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE IALY A PEU A
PEU LAISSE SA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE POUR UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
AVEC LE CENTRE ESTIME EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE LA CONVECTION. EN EFFET,
A 18Z LE CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE ETAIT DE 22KT DE NORD-EST (ANALYSE DU
CIMSS). EN ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNES DISPONIBLES, IALY EST MAINTENUE AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAX AUTOUR DE 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU D'EVOLUTION. IALY SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE
CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. CETTE DERNIERE, SITUEE VERS LA SOMALIE, VA
DEVENIR D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI
POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PASSE AINSI A PROXIMITE DE L'ATOLL FARQUHAR A COURT TERME PUIS
DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA
FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI,
AVEC UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ORIENTER
TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST AVANT DE REPARTIR VERS
LE NORD. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 250 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE, LOCALEMENT 350 MM
EN 48H.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE AUJOUR'HUI JUSQU'A 12UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M AUJOURD'HUI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-150 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE AUJOURD'HUI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 170610
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 370 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/17 AT 18 UTC:
8.9 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 06 UTC:
8.9 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 51.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0

120H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 5.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM IALY HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM
A BAND CONFIGURATION TO A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED
TO BE AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. AT 18Z, THE SHEAR
ANALYZED WAS 22KT FROM THE NORTHEAST (CIMSS ANALYSIS). IN THE ABSENCE
OF OTHER AVAILABLE DATA, IALY IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 40KT.

N TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE. IALY IS MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND COMPETITION WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE, LOCATED
TOWARDS SOMALIA, WILL BECOME ALL THE MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE
FORECAST TRACK THUS PASSES CLOSE TO THE FARQUHAR ATOLL IN THE SHORT
TERM, BEFORE BECOMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS, AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE STRONG DISPERSION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, THE
SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY TURN SOUTHEAST BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM COULD
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 250 MM BY SUNDAY
- GALES LIKELY TODAY UP TO 18UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE) :
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR TODAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170013
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.1 S / 51.9 E
(NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 18/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 18/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 19/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 20/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/05/2024 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0

120H: 22/05/2024 00 UTC: 5.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE IALY A PEU A
PEU LAISSE SA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE POUR UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
AVEC LE CENTRE ESTIME EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE LA CONVECTION. EN EFFET,
A 18Z LE CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE ETAIT DE 22KT DE NORD-EST (ANALYSE DU
CIMSS). EN ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNES DISPONIBLES, IALY EST MAINTENUE AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAX AUTOUR DE 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU D'EVOLUTION. IALY SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE
CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. CETTE DERNIERE, SITUEE VERS LA SOMALIE, VA
DEVENIR D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI
POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PASSE AINSI A PROXIMITE DE L'ATOLL FARQUHAR A COURT TERME PUIS
DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA
FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI,
AVEC UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ORIENTER
TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST AVANT DE REPARTIR VERS
LE NORD. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 250 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE AUJOUR'HUI JUSQU'A 18UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-150 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE AUJOURD'HUI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 170008
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 17/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 51.9 E
(NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/17 AT 12 UTC:
9.0 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/18 AT 00 UTC:
8.9 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161858
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.2 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0

120H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED, ACCORDING TO THE MICROWAVE IMAGE F17 FROM 1510.
THE CENTER ALSO SEEMS TO BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION, WHICH IS
STILL ORGANIZED IN A SPIRAL BAND. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER AVAILABLE
DATA, IALY IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF AROUND 40KT.

N TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE. IALY IS MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND COMPETITION WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE, LOCATED
TOWARDS SOMALIA, WILL BECOME ALL THE MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE
FORECAST TRACK THUS PASSES CLOSE TO THE FARQUHAR ATOLL IN THE SHORT
TERM, BEFORE BECOMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS, AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE STRONG DISPERSION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, THE
SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY TURN SOUTHEAST BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM COULD
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

OUTER SEYCHELLES ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 300 MM BY SUNDAY.
- GALES LIKELY FRIDAY BETWEEN 00 AND 18UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE) :
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM IN 24H ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161858
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 52.2 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 17/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 18/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 0

48H: 18/05/2024 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 19/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 0

120H: 21/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
SEMBLE S'ETRE DAVANTAGE CONCENTREE D'APRES L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F17 DE
1510. PAR AILLEURS, LE CENTRE SEMBLE DAVANTAGE SE RAPPROCHER DE LA
CONVECTION, TOUJOURS ORGANISEE EN BANDE SPIRALEE. EN ABSENCE D'AUTRES
DONNES DISPONIBLES, IALY EST MAINTENUE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAX AUTOUR DE 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU D'EVOLUTION. IALY SE DEPLACE VERS
L'OUEST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE
CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. CETTE DERNIRE, SITUEE VERS LA SOMALIE, VA DEVENIR
D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI
POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PASSE AINSI A PROXIMITE DE L'ATOLL FARQUHAR A COURT TERME PUIS
DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA
FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI,
AVEC UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ORIENTER
TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST AVANT DE REPARTIR VERS
LE NORD. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 300 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE VENDREDI ENTRE 00 ET 18UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 161812
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.2 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/17 AT 06 UTC:
9.0 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/17 AT 18 UTC:
8.9 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161338
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 75

120H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM 11-20232024'S STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BAND
PATTERN AND A PARTIAL SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE HAS STARTED TO FORM, AS
INDICATED BY THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0943Z. THIS MORNING'S
HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW A CIRCULATION THAT WAS BEGINNING
TO CLOSE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE INITIAL ELONGATED CIRCULATION,
WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THIS STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND THESE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KT AT 12UTC, ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
LAGGING AT 2.0+. THIS 10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON HAS THUS BEEN
NAMED IALY BY MADAGASCAR'S METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 12UTC ON MAY 16.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW, AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMPETES WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR SOMALIA, WHICH WILL BECOME ALL THE
MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE FORECAST TRACK PASSES CLOSE TO THE
FARQUHAR ATOLL IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS AS ILLUSTRATED BY STRONG DISPERSION IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
TRACK COULD TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SEYCHELLES OUTER ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 300 MM UNTIL SUNDAY
- GALES LIKELY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 00UTC AND 18UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M FROM TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM IN 24H ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161338
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 17/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 18/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 0

48H: 18/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 75

120H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME 11-20232024
A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER RAPIDEMENT. LA CONVECTION S'ENROULE
DAVANTAGE SUR LA FACE OUEST DU CENTRE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE ET UN PETIT COEUR CONVECTIF PARTIEL A
COMMENCE A SE FORMER, COMME INDIQUE PAR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE
0943Z. LES DONNEES ASCAT HAUTE RESOLUTION DE CE MATIN MONTRENT AUSSI
UNE CIRCULATION QUI COMMENCAIT A SE REFERMER DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION ALLONGEE INITIALE, AVEC DES VENTS DE 35 A 40 KT. CETTE
AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE ET CES DONNEES OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE
PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER QUE LE SYSTEME A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT LE STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 40 KT
A 12UTC, AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A 2.0+. CETTE 10E
TEMPETE TROPICALE DE LA SAISON A AINSI ETE BAPTISEE IALY PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR CE 16 MAI A 12UTC.

LE SYSTEME ORIENTE A PRESENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN BORDURE
NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN
RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET
D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SITUEE VERS LA
SOMALIE, DEVENANT D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME
S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PASSE AINSI A PROXIMITE DE
L'ATOLL FARQUHAR A COURT TERME PUIS DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE A PARTIR
DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES
GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST
SOUS L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 300 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE VENDREDI ENTRE 00 ET 18UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161333
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 75

120H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM 11-20232024'S STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BAND
PATTERN AND A PARTIAL SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE HAS STARTED TO FORM, AS
INDICATED BY THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0943Z. THIS MORNING'S
HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW A CIRCULATION THAT WAS BEGINNING
TO CLOSE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE INITIAL ELONGATED CIRCULATION,
WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THIS STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND THESE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KT AT 12UTC, ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
LAGGING AT 2.0+. THIS 10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON HAS THUS BEEN
NAMMED IALY BY MADAGASCAR'S METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 12UTC ON MAY
16.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW, AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMPETES WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR SOMALIA, WHICH WILL BECOME ALL THE
MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE FORECAST TRACK PASSES CLOSE TO THE
FARQUHAR ATOLL IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS AS ILLUSTRATED BY STRONG DISPERSION IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
TRACK COULD TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SEYCHELLES OUTER ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 300 MM UNTIL SUNDAY
- GALES LIKELY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 00UTC AND 18UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M FROM TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM IN 24H ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161333
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 17/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 18/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 0

48H: 18/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 75

120H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME 11-20232024
A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER RAPIDEMENT. LA CONVECTION S'ENROULE
DAVANTAGE SUR LA FACE OUEST DU CENTRE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE ET UN PETIT COEUR CONVECTIF PARTIEL A
COMMENCE A SE FORMER, COMME INDIQUE PAR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE
0943Z. LES DONNEES ASCAT HAUTE RESOLUTION DE CE MATIN MONTRENT AUSSI
UNE CIRCULATION QUI COMMENCAIT A SE REFERMER DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION ALLONGEE INITIALE, AVEC DES VENTS DE 35 A 40 KT. CETTE
AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE ET CES DONNEES OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE
PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER QUE LE SYSTEME A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT LE STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 40 KT
A 12UTC, AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A 2.0+. CETTE 10E
TEMPETE TROPICALE DE LA SAISON A AINSI ETE BAPTISEE IALY PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR CE 16 MAI A 12UTC.

LE SYSTEME ORIENTE A PRESENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN BORDURE
NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN
RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET
D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SITUEE VERS LA
SOMALIE, DEVENANT D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME
S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PASSE AINSI A PROXIMITE DE
L'ATOLL FARQUHAR A COURT TERME PUIS DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE A PARTIR
DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES
GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST
SOUS L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 300 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE VENDREDI ENTRE 00 ET 18UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/17 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 75

120H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM 11-20232024'S STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BAND
PATTERN AND A PARTIAL SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE HAS STARTED TO FORM, AS
INDICATED BY THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0943Z. THIS MORNING'S
HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW A CIRCULATION THAT WAS BEGINNING
TO CLOSE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE INITIAL ELONGATED CIRCULATION,
WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THIS STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND THESE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KT AT 12UTC, ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
LAGGING AT 2.0+.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW, AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMPETES WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR SOMALIA, WHICH WILL BECOME ALL THE
MORE INFLUENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE. THE FORECAST TRACK PASSES CLOSE TO THE
FARQUHAR ATOLL IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS AS ILLUSTRATED BY STRONG DISPERSION IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
TRACK COULD TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED
BUT IMPROVING, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SURFACE WATERS
CLOSE TO 29C, GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, BUT
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND POOR CONVERGENCE ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTH SIDE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
GRADUAL SYMMETRIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTER DESPITE
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR DISRUPTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR STRESS OR
POSSIBLY BY MORE OR LESS UPWELLING DUE TO ITS QUASI-STATIONNARY
MOTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AND
BECOME MORE DISRUPTIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ALMOST THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING BY
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SEYCHELLES OUTER ISLANDS (FARQUHAR ATOLL):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 300 MM UNTIL SUNDAY
- GALES LIKELY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 00UTC AND 18UTC.
- WAVES OF 4-5M FROM TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200 MM IN 24H ON SATURDAY OVER EASTERN
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE (SAVA REGION).
- POSSIBLE 4M WAVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN TIP ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/11/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 17/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 18/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 0

48H: 18/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 19/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 19/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 75

120H: 21/05/2024 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME 11-20232024
A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER RAPIDEMENT. LA CONVECTION S'ENROULE
DAVANTAGE SUR LA FACE OUEST DU CENTRE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE ET UN PETIT COEUR CONVECTIF PARTIEL A
COMMENCE A SE FORMER, COMME INDIQUE PAR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE
0943Z. LES DONNEES ASCAT HAUTE RESOLUTION DE CE MATIN MONTRENT AUSSI
UNE CIRCULATION QUI COMMENCAIT A SE REFERMER DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION ALLONGEE INITIALE, AVEC DES VENTS DE 35 A 40 KT. CETTE
AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE ET CES DONNEES OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE
PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER QUE LE SYSTEME A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT LE STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 40 KT
A 12UTC, AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A 2.0+.

LE SYSTEME ORIENTE A PRESENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN BORDURE
NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER LENT EN
RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE CES PROCHAINS JOURS ET
D'UNE COMPETITION AVEC UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SITUEE VERS LA
SOMALIE, DEVENANT D'AUTANT PLUS INFLUENTE QUE LE SYSTEME
S'INTENSIFIERA, CE QUI POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PASSE AINSI A PROXIMITE DE
L'ATOLL FARQUHAR A COURT TERME PUIS DEVIENT TRES INCERTAINE A PARTIR
DE CE WEEK-END, COMME L'ILLUSTRE LA FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES
GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES. EN FIN DE WEEK-END OU DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD A NORD-EST
SOUS L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
ACTUELLEMENT MIXTES MAIS EN VOIE D'AMELIORATION, AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DES EAUX CHAUDES A 29C, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DU COTE SUD DU SYSTEME, MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST AINSI
QU'UNE MAUVAISE CONVERGENCE DU COTE NORD DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ICI CE WEEK-END, PERMETTANT UNE SYMETRISATION
GRADUELLE ET UNE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI CE WEEK-END. LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION
RESTE NEANMOINS TRES INCERTAINE, REFLETEE PAR LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES, DEPENDANT DE LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME A
MAINTENIR UN CENTRE SUFFISAMMENT COMPACT ET SYMETRIQUE, ET DE SA
RESISTANCE FACE A D'EVENTUELLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE MAXIMAL AU COURS
DU WEEK-END, MAIS POURRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTENCE
D'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLE A MODEREE, VOIRE DE PHENOMENES
D'UPWELLING LIES AU MOUVEMENT QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU AUGMENTER
ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME FACE AU
CISAILLEMENT, CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
D'ICI MARDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES (ATOLL FARQUHAR) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 150 A 300 MM D'ICI DIMANCHE
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE VENDREDI ENTRE 00 ET 18UTC.
- VAGUES DE 4-5M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA) :
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE 100-200 MM EN 24H SAMEDI SUR L'EST DE LA
PROVINCE D'ANTSIRANANA (REGION SAVA).
- POSSIBLES VAGUES DE 4M SUR LA POINTE NORD-EST MALGACHE VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 161224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/17 AT 00 UTC:
9.0 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/17 AT 12 UTC:
9.0 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=