Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HIDAYA-24
in Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23S SIO 240504132456
2024050412 23S HIDAYA 007 01 275 12 SATL 060
T000 077S 0386E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 069S 0378E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 6.9S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5S 38.4E.
04MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 14 FEET.
//
2324042812 51S 490E 15
2324042818 55S 486E 15
2324042900 60S 482E 15
2324042906 65S 477E 20
2324042912 68S 473E 20
2324042918 70S 469E 20
2324043000 72S 463E 25
2324043006 73S 458E 25
2324043012 76S 457E 25
2324043018 79S 456E 25
2324050100 83S 454E 30
2324050106 85S 453E 30
2324050112 86S 451E 35
2324050118 88S 449E 35
2324050200 91S 444E 40
2324050206 89S 442E 45
2324050212 88S 441E 50
2324050212 88S 441E 50
2324050218 88S 437E 65
2324050218 88S 437E 65
2324050218 88S 437E 65
2324050300 87S 432E 80
2324050300 87S 432E 80
2324050300 87S 432E 80
2324050306 84S 426E 80
2324050306 84S 426E 80
2324050306 84S 426E 80
2324050312 82S 420E 75
2324050312 82S 420E 75
2324050312 82S 420E 75
2324050318 80S 413E 70
2324050318 80S 413E 70
2324050318 80S 413E 70
2324050400 79S 406E 60
2324050400 79S 406E 60
2324050406 78S 398E 50
2324050406 78S 398E 50
2324050412 77S 386E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 6.9S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5S 38.4E.
04MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 23S MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 0200Z AND
0300Z. AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND, TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DECAY. AN 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS LIMITED CURVED
BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AS IT TRACKS FURTHER
INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 14 FEET.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20232024
1.A FILLING UP 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5 S / 39.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING






2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ASCAT DATA FROM 0655Z RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN WAS
ISSUED HAVE ENABLED US TO GAIN A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF HIDAYA'S
POSITION, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM HAS AS EXPECTED
UNDERGONE A VERY RAPID WEAKENING PHASE SINCE LAST NIGHT, DUE TO SHEAR
AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE ASCAT SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED, WEAK
CIRCULATION (WINDS AT 30-35 KT) ON THE VERGE OF EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH (UNCLOSED CIRCULATION). THIS REMNANT LOW CIRCULATED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY OVER THE ISLAND OF MAFIA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
VISIBLE MSG-2 IMAGES, IT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE TANZANIAN COASTLINE,
WITH DISSIPATION VERY LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

TANZANIA:
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TANZANIA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (MAINLY OVERNIGHT), MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES SALAAM AND
MTWARA) BUT ALSO INLAND.

- WINDS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ARE NO MORE EXPECTED.

- SEA STATE IMPROVING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BACK UNDER 4M OVERNIGHT.

LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM,
EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041243
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.5 S / 39.5 E
(SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1007 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT






2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
DES DONNEES ASCAT DE 0655Z RECUES JUSTE APRES EMISSION DU BULLETIN
PRECEDENT ONT PERMIS DE MIEUX APPREHENDER LA POSITION, L'INTENSITE ET
LA STRUCTURE DE HIDAYA. LE SYSTEME A COMME PREVU SUBIT UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT TRES RAPIDE DEPUIS LA NUIT DERNIERE SOUS L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. L'ASCAT MONTRE UNE
CIRCULATION MAL DEFINIE ET FAIBLE (VENTS A 30-35 KT) SUR LE POINT D'A
VOLUER EN TALWEG DE SURFACE (CIRCULATION NON FERMEE). CE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL A CIRCULE EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE SUR L'ILE MAFIA. SELON LES
DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES MSG-2, IL EST ACTUELLEMENT LE LONG DU
LITTORAL TANZANIEN AVEC UNE DISSIPATION TRES PROBABLE A BREVE
ECHEANCE.


IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- POURSUITE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN SUR LE
SUD-EST DE LA TANZANIE. CUMULS ADDITIONNELS DE 100 A 150 MM A
ATTENDRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H (PRINCIPALEMENT CETTE NUIT) SUR
LA PARTIE CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL PRINCIPALEMENT (ENTRE DAR ES
SALAAM ET MTWARA) MAIS AUSSI A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES.

- PLUS DE POSSIBILITE D'AVOIR DU VENT EXCEDANT LE COUP DE VENT

- AMELIORATION DE L'ETAT DE LA MER AVEC DES CREUX MOYENS REPASSANT
SOUS LES 4M DURANT LA NUIT.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041219
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 10 (HIDAYA) 1007 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5 S / 39.5 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
RESIDUAL SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER
ALONG THE AFRICAN COASTLINES.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/05 AT 00 UTC:
6.3 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING


OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 40.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 5.5 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0


HIDAYA HAS CLEARLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING SINCE THE END OF THE
NIGHT, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, F17 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM 0337Z SHOWS THE EXISTENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE CORE
(CHANNEL 91 GHZ) THAT IS STILL FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. THE SURFACE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO LIE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CORE,
WITH THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM TILTED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO
INCREASING DEEP NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE RECENT LACK OF
VISIBILITY OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, THE ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE
CENTER CONTAINS LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AND BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES (55-65 KT) AND
OBJECTIVE SAT ESTIMATES (40-50 KT).


THE SYSTEM'S TRACK BECOMES INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY LOW TROPOSPHERE
STEERING FLOWS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR CONSTRAINT INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION.
A SHORT-TERM LANDFALL (THIS AFTERNOON) WITH DISSIPATION OF THE
RESIDUAL MINIMUM ON THE TANZANIAN COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS
THE PREFERRED OPTION, BUT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, GIVEN THE RAPID
WEAKENING UNDERWAY.

IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

TANZANIA :
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 150 TO 250 MM EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES SALAAM AND
MTWARA), LOCALLY AROUND 300 MM. IMPROVEMENT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

- GALE OR EVEN STORM WINDS UNDERWAY ON THE ISLAND OF MAFIA, BUT
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND FROM THIS AFTERNOON. GALE SPREADING TO PARTS
OF THE PWANI AND DAR ES SALAM COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
DECREASING NEXT NIGHT.

- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M, ESPECIALLY ON MAFIA ISLAND.
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4 S / 40.0 E
(SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 05/05/2024 06 UTC: 5.5 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0


HIDAYA A CLAIREMENT MONTRE DES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEPUIS LA FIN
DE NUIT AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE RECHAUFFANT RAPIDEMENT. TOUTEFOIS
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES F17 DE 0337Z MONTRE L'EXISTENCE D'UN COEUR EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE (CANAL 91 GHZ) ENCORE ASSEZ BIEN CONSTITUE. LE
CENTRE DE SURFACE EST ESTIME AU NORD DU COEUR DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
AVEC UNE STRUCTURE VERTICALE DE LA TEMPETE INCLINEE VERS LE SUD EN
RAISON DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR NORD EN
HAUSSE. COMPTE TENU DU MANQUE DE VISIBILITE RECENT SUR LA CIRCULATION
EN SURFACE, L'ESTIMATION DE LA POSITION DU CENTRE CONTIENT UNE
INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST AUSSI ASSEZ INCERTAINE ET SE BASE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES (55-65 KT) ET LES
ESTIMATIONS SAT OBJECTIVES (40-50 KT).


LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DEVIENT DE PLUS EN PLUS PILOTE PAR DES FLUX
DIRECTEUR EN BASSE TROPOSPHERE AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LIE
A LA PRESENCE D'UNE IMPORTANTE CONTRAINTE DE CISAILLEMENT INJECTANT
DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. UN ATTERISSAGE A COURT TERME
(CET APRES-MIDI) AVEC UNE DISSIPATION DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL SUR LES
COTES TANZANIENNES D'ICI DEMAIN MATIN, RESTE PRIVILEGIE MAIS IL N'EST
PAS IMPOSSIBLE QUE LE SYSTEME SE DISSIPE COMPLETEMENT AVANT DE
TOUCHER TERRE COMPTE TENU DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE EN COURS.


IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- POURSUITE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. CUMULS
ADDITIONNELS DE 150 A 250 MM A ATTENDRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H
SUR LA PARTIE CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL (ENTRE DAR ES SALAAM ET
MTWARA), LOCALEMENT AUTOUR DE 300 MM. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE APRES-MIDI.

- COUP DE VENT VOIRE TEMPETE EN COURS SUR L'ILE DE MAFIA MAIS BAISSE
GRADUELLE DU VENT A PARTIR DE CET APRES-MIDI. COUP DE VENT GAGNANT
CERTAINES PORTIONS DU LITTORAL DE LA REGION DE PWANI ET DE DAR ES
SALAM CET APRES-MIDI. BAISSE DU VENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M, NOTAMMENT SUR L'ILE MAFIA.
AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040620
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 40.0 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 18 UTC:
6.5 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/05 AT 06 UTC:
5.5 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 40.6 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.1 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE TEMPORARY
RESURGENCE OF AN EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE 2240Z AMSR2 PASS DOES
NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION OF THE INNER STRUCTURE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING. THE 1540Z RCM3 SAR PASS AND THE 1812Z ASCAT PASS,
WHICH ARRIVED AFTER THE 18Z FORECAST, SUGGEST AN INTENSITY STILL
CLOSE TO 65KT AT 18Z. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT, AS WELL AS THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 60KT AT 00Z.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK CONTINUES TO BE STEERED THIS MORNING BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN SOUTHERN AFRICA, DRIVING THE MOVEMENT
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD. TODAY, THE STEERING FLOW WILL DESCEND INTO THE
LOW-TROPOSPHERE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WHICH
SHOULD BEND THE TRACK TO THE NORTH-WEST IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE TANZANIAN COAST. A LANDING IS POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY.

ON THE INTENSITY SIDE, ALTHOUGH STRONG, THE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS SO FAR HAD A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE
PHENOMENON'S INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE POINTS
TO A RAPID WEAKENING IN THE COMING HOURS AS A RESULT OF THIS SHEAR.
THIS THEREFORE REMAINS OUR MAIN SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING. HIDAYA
IS EXPECTED TO LAND OR CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE TANZANIAN COAST AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM LATE ON SATURDAY, BEFORE FILLING IN AND
DISSIPATING DEFINITIVELY OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS:

TANZANIA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200MM IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES SALAAM AND MTWARA),
LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 300MM. IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
- GALES LIKELY ON SATURDAY LOCALLY ALONG COASTAL PARTS OF PWANI
REGION, INCLUDING MAFIA ISLAND.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M, ESPECIALLY ON MAFIA ISLAND.
IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.9 S / 40.6 E
(SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75

24H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.1 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HIDAYA
S'EST AMELIOREE, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PLUS MARQUEE PRES DU
CENTRE, ET LE RETOUR TEMPORAIRE D'UN OEIL EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE. LA
PASSE AMSR2 DE 2240Z NE SEMBLE PAS MONTRE D'EVOLUTION SIGNIFICATIVE
DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DEPUIS HIER SOIR. LA PASSE RCM3 SAR DE 1540Z
ET LA PASSES ASCAT DE 1812Z, ARRIVEES APRES LE RESEAU DE 18Z, SUGGERE
UNE INTENSITE ENCORE PROCHE DE 65KT A 18Z. AFIN D'EN TENIR COMPTE ET
AU VU DES DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS, L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE A
60KT A 00Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE PILOTEE CE MATIN PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, ORIENTANT LE MOUVEMENT
VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. EN COURS DE JOURNEE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DESCEND EN BASSE TROPOSPHERE SAMEDI SOIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CE QUI DEVRAIT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES COTES DE TANZANIE. UN ATTERRISSAGE EST
POSSIBLE MAIS IL RESTE ENCORE BEAUCOUP D'INCERTITUDE NOTAMMENT EN
LIEN AVEC L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, BIEN QUE FORT LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD
A NORD-EST A POUR L'HEURE, EU UN IMPACT LIMITE SUR L'INTENSITE DU
PHENOMENE. TOUTEFOIS, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES A NOTRE DISPOSITION,
SUGGERENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN
LIEN AVEC CE CISAILLEMENT. CELA RESTE DONC NOTRE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE
A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. HIDAYA DEVRAIT ATTERRIR OU CIRCULER A PROXIMITE
DES COTES TANZANIENNES AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EN FIN
DE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AVANT DE SE COMBLER ET SE DISSIPER
DEFINITIVEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE OU DIMANCHE
MATIN AU PLUS TARD.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- POURSUITE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN.
FREQUENTS CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM EN MOINS DE 48H SUR LA PARTIE
CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL (ENTRE DAR ES SALAAM ET MTWARA),
LOCALEMENT AUTOUR DE 300MM. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
APRES-MIDI.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI LOCALEMENT PRES DU
LITTORAL DE LA REGION PWANI, INCLUANT L'ILE MAFIA.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M, NOTAMMENT SUR L'ILE MAFIA.
AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040032
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 40.6 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 12 UTC:
7.2 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/05 AT 00 UTC:
6.1 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 41.3 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 75

36H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 5.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 1500Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS THE EROSION OF THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANT EYEWALL. THESE ELEMENTS
ARE MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (30KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS). THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. A SMOS PASS SEEMED TO
SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 50KT, BUT THIS COULD BE BIASED
BY THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. PENDING MORE RELIABLE ESTIMATES, THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT REMAINS DRIVEN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AFRICA, INDUCING A
WEST-NORTH-WESTERWARD MOTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, THEN INTO THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WHICH SHOULD
MAKE THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TANZANIAN COAST. A LANDFALL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, EVEN IF THE FAVORED SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED BY TOMORROW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THIS EVENING AND INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE
INTEGRITY OF THE SYSTEM'S VORTEX. HIDAYA COULD THEREFORE WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, IT COULD STILL BE AT MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON SATURDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN
COAST, BEFORE FILLING IN AND DISSIPATING DEFINITIVELY DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS:

TANZANIA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200MM IN LESS THAN 48
HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES
SALAAM AND MTWARA), LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 300MM. IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
- GALES LIKELY ON SATURDAY LOCALLY ALONG COASTAL PARTS OF PWANI
REGION, INCLUDING MAFIA ISLAND.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
MAFIA ISLAND. IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST UNTIL TOMORROW. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100
TO 150MM OVER 24 TO 48H IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST OF THE PROVINCE.
IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031833
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/10/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.9 S / 41.3 E
(SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/05/2024 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 45

24H: 04/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 75

36H: 05/05/2024 06 UTC: 5.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HIDAYA A
CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT NETTEMENT
RECHAUFFES, ET L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE CONCENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1500Z TEMOIGNE D'UNE EROSION DU MUR DE
L'OEIL DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. CES ELEMENTS SONT TRES PROBABLEMENT
LIES A LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-EST NOTAMMENT
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE (30KT D'APRES LE CIMSS). L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE
RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE. UNE PASSE SMOS SEMBLAIT SUGGERER DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT MAIS CELA POURRAIT BIAISE EN RAISON DE LA
TAILLE DU SYSTEME. EN ATTENDANT DES ESTIMATIONS PLUS FIABLES,
L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 60KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE PILOTEE JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, ORIENTANT LE
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS EN BASSE TROPOSPHERE
SAMEDI SOIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, CE QUI DEVRAIT
INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD A NORD-EST A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES COTES DE TANZANIE. UN ATTERRISSAGE N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLU MEME SI LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE TEND A MAINTENIR LE
CENTRE LEGEREMENT EN MER. CELA RESTERA A CONFIRMER D'ICI DEMAIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-EST VA
AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE CE SOIR ET AFFECTER DE PLUS EN PLUS L'INTEGRITE
DU VORTEX. HIDAYA POURRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT CETTE
NUIT. IL POURRAIT NEANMOINS ENCORE AVOIR UNE INTENSITE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AU MOMENT D'APPROCHER LES
COTES TANZANIENNES AVANT DE SE COMBLER ET SE DISSIPER DEFINITIVEMENT
EN COURS DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE OU DIMANCHE MATIN AU PLUS
TARD.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- ARRIVEE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS CE VENDREDI SOIR ET SE
POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. FREQUENTS CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM
EN MOINS DE 48H SUR LA PARTIE CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL (ENTRE DAR
ES SALAAM ET MTWARA), LOCALEMENT AUTOUR DE 300MM. AMELIORATION A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE APRES-MIDI.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI LOCALEMENT PRES DU
LITTORAL DE LA REGION PWANI, INCLUANT L'ILE MAFIA.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, NOTAMMENT SUR
L'ILE MAFIA. AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO) :
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS VONT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A DEMAIN. CUMULS
DE 100 A 150MM EN 24 A 48H SUR L'EXTREME NORD-EST DE LA PROVINCE,
PRES DE LA FRONTIERE TANZANIENNE. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE SAMEDI
SOIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031812
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 41.3 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 06 UTC:
7.4 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 18 UTC:
6.5 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031327
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA'S EYE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 09UTC, DESPITE CONVECTION REMAINING VERY INTENSE
NEAR THE SYSTEM'S TIGHT CENTER. THE 0752Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE, WITH A MORE OPEN
CONVECTIVE CORE AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX TILTED 10/15NM SOUTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, INDICATIVE OF THE FIRST EFFECTS OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. SATCON AND DMINT/DPRINT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY COMPARED WITH 06UTC. THESE ELEMENTS
LEAD US TO ESTIMATE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 65KT AT 12UTC.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT REMAINS DRIVEN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AFRICA, INDUCING A
WEST-NORTH-WESTERWARD MOTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, THEN INTO THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WHICH SHOULD
MAKE THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TANZANIAN COAST. A LANDFALL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, EVEN IF THE FAVORED SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED BY TOMORROW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THIS EVENING AND INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE
INTEGRITY OF THE SYSTEM'S VORTEX. HIDAYA COULD THEREFORE WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, IT COULD STILL BE AT MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING SATURDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN
COAST, BEFORE FILLING IN AND DISSIPATING DEFINITIVELY DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS:

TANZANIA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200MM IN LESS THAN 48
HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES
SALAAM AND MTWARA), LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 300MM. SEVERE FLOODING
LIKELY. IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
- GALES LIKELY ON SATURDAY LOCALLY ALONG COASTAL PARTS OF PWANI
REGION, INCLUDING MAFIA ISLAND.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
MAFIA ISLAND. IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINFALL HAS STARTED THIS FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL PERSIST
UNTIL TOMORROW. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150MM OVER 24 TO 48H IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST OF THE PROVINCE. IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031327
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E
(HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/05/2024 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 04/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HIDAYA
EST DEVENUE MOINS NETTE, EN PARTICULIER APRES 09UTC, MALGRE UNE
CONVECTION RESTANT TRES INTENSE AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE COMPACT. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 0752Z MONTRE UNE LEGERE DEGRADATION DE LA
STRUCTURE AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF PLUS OUVERT ET UN VORTEX DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DECALE DE 10/15MN AU SUD DU CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES, SIGNES DES PREMIERS EFFETS DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES ESTIMATIONS SATCON ET DMINT/DPRINT
SUGGERENT UNE LEGERE BAISSE D'INTENSITE PAR RAPPORT A 06UTC. CES
ELEMENTS PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A 65KT A 12UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE PILOTEE JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, ORIENTANT LE
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS EN BASSE TROPOSPHERE
SAMEDI SOIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, CE QUI DEVRAIT
INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD A NORD-EST A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES COTES DE TANZANIE. UN ATTERRISSAGE N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLU MEME SI LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE TEND A MAINTENIR LE
CENTRE LEGEREMENT EN MER. CELA RESTERA A CONFIRMER D'ICI DEMAIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-EST VA
AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE CE SOIR ET AFFECTER DE PLUS EN PLUS L'INTEGRITE
DU VORTEX. HIDAYA POURRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR
DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. IL POURRAIT NEANMOINS ENCORE AVOIR UNE
INTENSITE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AU MOMENT
D'APPROCHER LES COTES TANZANIENNES AVANT DE SE COMBLER ET SE DISSIPER
DEFINITIVEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE OU DIMANCHE
MATIN AU PLUS TARD.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- ARRIVEE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS CE VENDREDI SOIR ET SE
POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. FREQUENTS CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM
EN MOINS DE 48H SUR LA PARTIE CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL (ENTRE DAR
ES SALAAM ET MTWARA), LOCALEMENT AUTOUR DE 300MM. D'IMPORTANTES
INONDATIONS SONT DONC A CRAINDRE. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
APRES-MIDI.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI LOCALEMENT PRES DU
LITTORAL DE LA REGION PWANI, INCLUANT L'ILE MAFIA.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, NOTAMMENT SUR
L'ILE MAFIA. AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO) :
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS ONT COMMENCE CE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI ET
VONT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A DEMAIN. CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM EN 24 A 48H
SUR L'EXTREME NORD-EST DE LA PROVINCE, PRES DE LA FRONTIERE
TANZANIENNE. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031251
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA'S EYE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 09UTC, DESPITE CONVECTION REMAINING VERY INTENSE
NEAR THE SYSTEM'S TIGHT CENTER. THE 0752Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE, WITH A MORE OPEN
CONVECTIVE CORE AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX TILTED 10/15NM SOUTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, INDICATIVE OF THE FIRST EFFECTS OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. SATCON AND DMINT/DPRINT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY COMPARED WITH 06UTC. THESE ELEMENTS
LEAD US TO ESTIMATE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 65KT AT 12UTC.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT REMAINS DRIVEN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AFRICA, INDUCING A
WEST-NORTH-WESTERWARD MOTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, THEN INTO THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WHICH SHOULD
MAKE THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TANZANIAN COAST. A LANDFALL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, EVEN IF THE FAVORED SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED BY TOMORROW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THIS EVENING AND INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE
INTEGRITY OF THE SYSTEM'S VORTEX. HIDAYA COULD THEREFORE WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, IT COULD STILL BE AT MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING SATURDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN
COAST, BEFORE FILLING IN AND DISSIPATING DEFINITIVELY DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS:

TANZANIA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200MM IN LESS THAN 48
HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES
SALAAM AND MTWARA), LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 300MM. SEVERE FLOODING
LIKELY. IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
- GALES LIKELY ON SATURDAY LOCALLY ALONG COASTAL PARTS OF PWANI
REGION, INCLUDING MAFIA ISLAND.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
MAFIA ISLAND. IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINFALL HAS STARTED THIS FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL PERSIST
UNTIL TOMORROW. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150MM OVER 24 TO 48H IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST OF THE PROVINCE. IMPROVING ON SATURDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031251
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E
(HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/05/2024 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 04/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HIDAYA
EST DEVENUE MOINS NETTE, EN PARTICULIER APRES 09UTC, MALGRE UNE
CONVECTION RESTANT TRES INTENSE AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE COMPACT. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 0752Z MONTRE UNE LEGERE DEGRADATION DE LA
STRUCTURE AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF PLUS OUVERT ET UN VORTEX DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DECALE DE 10/15MN AU SUD DU CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES, SIGNES DES PREMIERS EFFETS DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES ESTIMATIONS SATCON ET DMINT/DPRINT
SUGGERENT UNE LEGERE BAISSE D'INTENSITE PAR RAPPORT A 06UTC. CES
ELEMENTS PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A 65KT A 12UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE PILOTEE JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, ORIENTANT LE
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS EN BASSE TROPOSPHERE
SAMEDI SOIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, CE QUI DEVRAIT
INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD A NORD-EST A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES COTES DE TANZANIE. UN ATTERRISSAGE N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT EXCLU MEME SI LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE TEND A MAINTENIR LE
CENTRE LEGEREMENT EN MER. CELA RESTERA A CONFIRMER D'ICI DEMAIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-EST VA
AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE CE SOIR ET AFFECTER DE PLUS EN PLUS L'INTEGRITE
DU VORTEX. HIDAYA POURRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR
DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. IL POURRAIT NEANMOINS ENCORE AVOIR UNE
INTENSITE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AU MOMENT
D'APPROCHER LES COTES TANZANIENNES AVANT DE SE COMBLER ET SE DISSIPER
DEFINITIVEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE OU DIMANCHE
MATIN AU PLUS TARD.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- ARRIVEE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS CE VENDREDI SOIR ET SE
POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. FREQUENTS CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM
EN MOINS DE 48H SUR LA PARTIE CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL (ENTRE DAR
ES SALAAM ET MTWARA), LOCALEMENT AUTOUR DE 300MM. DES INONDATIONS
MAJEURES SONT DONC A CRAINDRE. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
APRES-MIDI.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI LOCALEMENT PRES DU
LITTORAL DE LA REGION PWANI, INCLUANT L'ILE MAFIA.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, NOTAMMENT SUR
L'ILE MAFIA. AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO) :
- LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS ONT COMMENCE CE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI ET
VONT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A DEMAIN. CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM EN 24 A 48H
SUR L'EXTREME NORD-EST DE LA PROVINCE, PRES DE LA FRONTIERE
TANZANIENNE. AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031227
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 00 UTC:
7.6 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 12 UTC:
7.1 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030659
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 42.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 6.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45

48H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA HAS MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY SYMMETRICAL
EYE PATTERN, WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVING AN AVERAGE DT OF 4.5.
DESPITE SLIGHTLY INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SEEMS
UNAFFECTED FOR THE TIME BEING. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT.
HIDAYA IS THEREFORE A HISTORICALLY INTENSE PHENOMENON FOR THE
NORTH-WESTERN CORNER OF THE BASIN: IT IS THE FIRST KNOWN SYSTEM TO
HAVE REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS NORTH-WEST OF 10S/45E.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN READJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, QUITE CLOSE TO THE IFS 00Z SCENARIO, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SYSTEM'S
CURRENT MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
AFRICA, INDUCING A WEST-NORTH-WESTERWARD MOTION. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE,
THEN INTO THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TANZANIAN COAST. A
LANDFALL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, EVEN IF THE FAVORED SCENARIO
IS TO KEEP THE CENTER SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
CONFIRMED BY TOMORROW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, BUT THE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE FROM THIS EVENING AND INCREASINGLY
AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THE SYSTEM'S VORTEX. HIDAYA COULD THEREFORE
REMAIN AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE UNTIL 12UTC, BEFORE WEAKENING MORE
MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT. IT COULD STILL BE AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE DURING SATURDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN COAST, BEFORE
FILLING IN AND DISSIPATING DEFINITIVELY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

TANZANIA :
- HEAVY RAINFALL ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. FREQUENT ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200MM IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS (BETWEEN DAR ES SALAAM
AND MTWARA), LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 300MM. IMPROVING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- GALES POSSIBLE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR MAFIA
ISLAND.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
MAFIA ISLAND. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINFALL ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL OF
100 TO 150MM OVER 48H IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY EVENING.

COMOROS: RAINFALL EASING ON SATURDAY (NO MORE THAN 50-100MM
FORECAST).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030659
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.5 S / 42.7 E
(HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 04/05/2024 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 04/05/2024 18 UTC: 6.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 45

48H: 05/05/2024 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HIDAYA A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL ENCORE RELATIVEMENT SYMETRIQUE, AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DONNANT
UN DT MOYEN DE 4.5. MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL EN LEGERE
HAUSSE, LE SYSTEME NE SEMBLE POUR LE MOMENT PAS AFFECTE. L'INTENSITE
EST ESTIMEE A 70 KT. HIDAYA EST AINSI UN PHENOMENE HISTORIQUEMENT
INTENSE POUR LE NORD-OUEST DU BASSIN : IL S'AGIT DU PREMIER PHENOMENE
CONNU A AVOIR ATTEINT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AU NORD-OUEST DE
10S/45E.

LA TRAJECTOIRE A ETE REAJUSTEE UN PEU PLUS AU NORD QUE LES PREVISIONS
PRECEDENTES ET PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO IFS DE 00Z QUI SEMBLE BIEN
CALE SUR LA POSITION INITIALE. LE DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL DU SYSTEME EST
PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE,
IMPOSANT UN MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS EN BASSE
TROPOSPHERE SAMEDI SOIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, CE QUI
DEVRAIT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS NORD A
NORD-EST A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES COTES DE TANZANIE. UN ATTERRISSAGE
N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLU MEME SI LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE TEND A
MAINTENIR LE CENTRE LEGEREMENT EN MER. CELA RESTERA A CONFIRMER D'ICI
DEMAIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A TRES COURT TERME MAIS LE CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-EST VA AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE CE SOIR ET
AFFECTER DE PLUS EN PLUS L'INTEGRITE DU VORTEX. HIDAYA POURRAIT DONC
SE MAINTENIR A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL JUSQU'A 12UTC AVANT DE
S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. IL POURRAIT
NEANMOINS ENCORE AVOIR UNE INTENSITE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EN
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AU MOMENT D'APPROCHER LES COTES TANZANIENNES AVANT
DE SE COMBLER ET SE DISSIPER DEFINITIVEMENT EN COURS DE NUIT DE
SAMEDI A DIMANCHE OU DIMANCHE MATIN AU PLUS TARD.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:

TANZANIE :
- ARRIVEE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI
ET SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN. FREQUENTS CUMULS DE 100 A
200MM EN MOINS DE 48H SUR LA PARTIE CENTRALE ET SUD DU LITTORAL
(ENTRE DAR ES SALAAM ET MTWARA), LOCALEMENT AUTOUR DE 300MM.
AMELIORATION DIMANCHE APRES-MIDI.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE SAMEDI EN JOURNEE, NOTAMMENT PRES DE L'ILE
MAFIA.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, NOTAMMENT SUR
L'ILE MAFIA. AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO) :
- ARRIVEE DES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI. CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM SUR 48H SUR L'EXTREME NORD-EST DE LA
REGION. AMELIORATION SAMEDI SOIR.

COMORES : ATTENUATION DES PLUIES CE SAMEDI (ON NE PREVOIT PAS PLUS DE
50-100MM).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030631
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 42.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 18 UTC:
7.9 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 06 UTC:
7.4 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 8.8S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.5S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 8.0S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 7.5S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 6.9S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 5.4S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7S 43.0E.
03MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 43.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/03 12 UTC: 8.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA HAS CONTINUED ITS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED, BUT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. EFFECTIVELY, SINCE 22UTC, AN EYE
HAS FORMED ON BOTH INFRARED AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGES. A DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF THE EYE, AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS, GIVES A T OF 4.5-. THE
GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2024Z ALSO SHOWS AN EYE WITH CONVECTION ALL
AROUND THE CENTER ON 85GHZ. A SAR PASS AT 1531Z REVEALED WIND
EXTENSIONS. HIDAYA HAS THEREFORE REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS,
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIDAYA'S MOVEMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE SWELLING OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FORCING A
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND HIDAYA MOVES FURTHER NORTH-WEST, THE STEERING FLOW
DESCENDS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERES (700HPA). RSMC' TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE WITH THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, TAKING THE SYSTEM
OVER MAFIA ISLAND WITHOUT LANDING ON THE TANZANIAN COAST. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE TRACK AND THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS, A SCENARIO INVOLVING A LANDING ON THE CENTER OF THE TANZANIAN
COASTLINE HAS NOT YET BEEN COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ( HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR) AND COULD MAINTAIN CYCLONE STATUS FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN DURING THE DAY, THE MEAN TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
INCREASES SHARPLY, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, FILLING ON SATURDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT
AT THE GATES OF TANZANIA.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

ALBADRA :
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.

GRANDE COMORE :
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150MM IN THE NEXT 24-48H, LOCALLY 150 TO
200MM OVER THE RELIEF. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY.

TANZANIA (SOUTHERN REGION):
- RAINFALL ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO
200MM OVER THE 72H ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COAST, LOCALLY 250MM
ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST.
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ON MAFIA ISLAND.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
MAFIA ISLAND. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO REGION):
- RAINFALL ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM
OVER THE 72H OVER THE EXTREME NORTH OF THE REGION.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030042
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/10/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8 S / 43.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 04/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85

36H: 04/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HIDAYA A POURSUIVI SON
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. LA TEMPERATURE DU SOMMET DES NUAGES S'EST
RECHAUFFEE MAIS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER.
EN EFFET, DEPUIS 22UTC UN OEIL S'EST FORME, AUSSI BIEN SUR LES IMAGES
INFRAROUGE QUE SUR LES IMAGES CLASSIQUES. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL,
MOYENNEE SUR 3H DONNE UN T DE 4.5-. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 2024Z
MONTRE AUSSI UN OEIL AVEC DE LA CONVECTION TOUT AUTOUR DU CENTRE SUR
LA 85GHZ. PAR AILLEURS, UNE PASSE SAR A 1531Z A PERMIS DE METTRE A
JOUR LES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS. HIDAYA A DONC ATTEINT LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS MAX ESTIMES A 65KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS PAR RAPPORT A LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE. LE DEPLACEMENT DE HIDAYA EST PILOTE PAR LE
GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE QUI SE PROLONGE DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, IMPOSANT UN MOVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. PUIS A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DESCEND VERS LES MOYENNES
TROPOSPHRES (700HPA) AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET HIDAYA SE
DIRIGE DAVANTAGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN
COMPROMIS AVEC LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, FAISANT PASSER
LE SYSTEME SUR L'ILE DE MAFIA ISLAND SANS LE FAIRE ATTERRIR SUR LES
COTES DE TANZANIE. CEPENDANT, ETANT DONNEES LES INCERTITUDES DE
TRAJECTOIRE AVEC LA DISPERSION DES MODELES, UN SCENARIO AVEC UN
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE CENTRE DU LITTORAL DE TANZANIE N'EST PAS ENCORE
COMPLETEMENT EXCLU.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES (FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT) ET POURRAIT
MAINTENIR LE STADE DE CYCLONE POUR LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. PUIS EN
COURS DE JOURNEE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AUGMENTE
NETTEMENT, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR
EN SOIREE ET NUIT PROCHAINE ET SE COMBLER SAMEDI SOIR OU DANS LA NUIT
DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE AUX PORTES DE LA TANZANIE.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:

ALBADRA :
- AMELIORATION DES CONDITIONS EN JOURNEE.

GRANDE COMORE :
- CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM DANS LES PROCHAINES 24-48H, LOCALEMENT 150 A
200MM SUR LE RELIEF. AMELIORATION SAMEDI EN JOURNEE.

TANZANIE (REGION SUD) :
- ARRIVEE DES PRECIPITATIONS DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.
CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM SUR LES 72H SUR LA MOITIE SUD DU LITTORAL,
LOCALEMENT 250MM SUR L'EXTREME SUD DU LITTORAL.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE SAMEDI EN JOURNEE, NOTAMMENT SUR MAFIA
ISLAND.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, NOTAMMENT SUR
MAFIA ISLAND. AMELIORATION SAMEDI EN SOIREE.

MOZAMBIQUE (REGION DE CABO DELGADO) :
- ARRIVEE DES PRECIPITATIONS DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.
CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM SUR LES 72H SUR L'EXTREME NORD DE LA REGION.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030016
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 43.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 120 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 400 NM
IN THE EASTERN HALF-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 12 UTC:
8.6 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/04 AT 00 UTC:
8.3 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 43.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/03 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HIDAYA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. AT FIRST, CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, THEN
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS SETTLED OVER THE CENTER. HIDAYA IS
THEREFORE CURRENTLY IN A CDO CONFIGURATION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES
A T OF 3.5+/4.0-, THE MET 4.0 ( CONSIDERING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SINCE 12UTC). SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES (F17 AND F16) FROM 1501Z AND
1520Z SHOW A CLOSE EYE ON 85GHZ. HIDAYA IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 55KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND SWELLING OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW A
WESTERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY TRACK AS IT APPROACHES MAFIA ISLAND AND
THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE S AVAILABLE, AND DOES NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDE A
LANDING ON THE COAST OF TANZANIA. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
COMPLETELY EXCLUDED. THE FINAL TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT FAVOR ITS INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEAN
POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR). THE RSMC FORECAST SUGGESTS
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 60KT, BUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TOMORROW MORNING. THEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR
INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND TO CLOSE ON SATURDAY EVENING
OR DURING THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AT THE GATES OF TANZANIA.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

ALBADRA :
- CUMULS OF 50 TO 100MM OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. IMPROVEMENT FROM
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

GRANDE COMORE :
- CUMULS OF 100 TO 150MM IN THE NEXT 24-48H, LOCALLY 250 TO 300MM
OVER THE RELIEF. IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

TANZANIA (SOUTHERN REGION) :
- CUMULS OF 100 TO 200MM, LOC 250MM OVER THE NEXT 72H, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE (BUT RISK DECREASING) SATURDAY DURING THE
DAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS, WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO REGION) :
- CUMULS OF 100 TO 200MM OVER THE 72H, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021856
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 43.6 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 03/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 04/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 04/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 0

60H: 05/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HIDAYA
S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE. DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS LA CONVECTION S'EST
ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE PUIS CES DERNIERES HEURES ELLE S'EST
INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE. HIDAYA PRESENTE DONC ACTUELLEMENT UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CDO. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DONNE UN T DE 3.5+/4.0-, LE
MET 4.0 (EN CONSIDERANT UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DEPUIS 12UTC). PAR
AILLEURS, LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS (F17 ET F16) DE 1501Z ET 1520Z
MONTRENT UN OEIL BIEN FERME SUR LA 85GHZ. HIDAYA EST DONC CLASSEE AU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MAX AUTOUR DE 55KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE ET LE GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST EN SE RAPPROCHANT DE
MAFIA ISLAND ET DES COTES DE TANZANIE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCE S DISPONIBLES ET NE PREVOIT
ACTUELLEMENT PAS D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE LITTORAL DE TANZANIE.
CEPENDANT CE SCENARIO N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLU. IL EXISTE ENCORE
UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES QUI FAVORISENT SON INTENSIFICATION (FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT). LA PREVISION DU
CMRS PROPOSE UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A 60KT, MAIS LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLU DEMAIN MATIN. PUIS
DEMAIN APRES-MIDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AUGMENTE
NETTEMENT, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR EN JOURNEE
DE VENDREDI ET SE COMBLER SAMEDI SOIR OU DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A
DIMANCHE AUX PORTES DE LA TANZANIE.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:

ALBADRA :
- CUMULS DE 50 A 100MM DANS LES PROCHAINES 24-36H. AMELIORATION A
PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

GRANDE COMORE :
- CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM DANS LES PROCHAINES 24-48H, LOCALEMENT 250 A
300MM SUR LE RELIEF. AMELIORATION SAMEDI EN JOURNEE.

TANZANIE (REGION SUD) :
- CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM, LOC 250MM SUR LES 72H, NOTAMMENT SAMEDI ET
DIMANCHE.
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE (MAIS RISQUE EN BAISSE) SAMEDI EN JOURNEE.
- MER TRES FORTE, VAGUES DE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.

MOZAMBIQUE (REGION DE CABO DELGADO) :
- CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM SUR LES 72H, NOTAMMENT SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 021817
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 43.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 140 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 330 NM
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 06 UTC:
8.9 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 18 UTC:
8.6 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021329
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 23 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 44.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION:

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/03 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/03 12 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 75

48H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0

60H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HIDAYA HAS CONTINUED
TO ADOPT A BETTER-DEFINED CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN. IN SUCH A
CONFIGURATION, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS INCREASES TO 3.5+ AND
THE ESTIMATED WIND INTENSITY RISES TO 45KT. THE START OF A HOTSPOT
ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW A WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTH-WESTERLY TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN COAST AND MAFIA ISLAND AS IT WEAKENS. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARDS ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST. RSMC
FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH ARE STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, LEADING TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. A LANDING ON
THE MAINLAND CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORING ITS INTENSIFICATION, AND SHOULD REACH THE STRONG
TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS EVENING OR EVEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
TOMORROW MORNING. BEYOND THIS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY
AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM IS SET
TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY, CIRCULATING CLOSE TO THE TANZANIAN COAST AS A
FILLING LOW THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.

IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
HEAVY RAIN:
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY AND OVER THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, OF THE ORDER OF
100 MM NEAR ALDABRA BEFORE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.
- WITH A PASSAGE OF MORE THAN 250KM, THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO (AND
MORE PARTICULARLY GRANDE COMORE) WILL BE AFFECTED BY PERIPHERAL BANDS
ALSO GENERATING HEAVY RAIN OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 250 MM OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE THAN 300 MM OVER THE RELIEF.
- IN SOUTHERN TANZANIA, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF CABO DELGADO AND THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF TANZANIA
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

STRONG WIND:
- DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEM, GRANDE COMORE SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM GALE FORCE WINDS.
- GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TANZANIAN COAST
FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

SEA:
- VERY HEAVY SEAS, WITH WAVES OF AROUND 4 M ON GRANDE COMORE, AND 4
TO 6 M ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST AND OFF THE MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF
CABO DELGADO AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021329
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 23 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8 S / 44.1 E
(HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE:

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 03/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 04/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 75

48H: 04/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 0

60H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HIDAYA
ADOPTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE INCURVEE MIEUX
DEFINI. DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AUGMENTE A 3.5+ ET L'INTENSITE DES VENTS ESTIME PASSE A 45KT. UN
DEBUT DE POINT CHAUD COMMENCE A APPARAITRE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES ECHEANCES, AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE ET LE
GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST. DANS CE
SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE PROGRESSIVEMENT DES COTES
TANZANIENNES ET DE MAFIA ISLAND EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT. ELLE DEVRAIT
ENSUITE POURSUIVRE SA ROUTE VERS LE NORD EN LONGEANT LES COTES
TANZANIENNES. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE,
INDUISANT AINSI UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU
SYSTEME. UN ATTERISSAGE N'EST SUR LE CONTINENT N'EST PAS EXCLU.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME
CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES QUI FAVORISENT SON INTENSIFICATION ET DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL CE SOIR VOIRE LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DEMAIN MATIN. AU-DELA, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT SE DEGRADER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN RAISON D'UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD A
NORD-OUEST, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI POUR CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DES COTES DE LA
TANZANIE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT CE WEEK-END AVANT DE SE
DISSIPER RAPIDEMENT.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:
FORTES PLUIES:
- FORTES PLUIES ACTUELLEMENT ET PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 24/48H, DE
L'ORDRE DE 100 MM A PROXIMITE D'ALDABRA AVANT UNE AMELIORATION
SAMEDI.
- AVEC UN PASSAGE A PLUS DE 250KM, L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES (ET PLUS
PARTICULIEREMENT LA GRANDE COMORE) SERA TOUCHEE PAR DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES GENERANT EGALEMENT DE FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A
250 MM DANS LES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES, LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 300 MM SUR
LE RELIEF.
- SUR LE SUD DE LA TANZANIE, DES CUMULS DE 100 A 200 MM SONT
POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL DE CABO DELGADO ET LES COTES SUD DE LA
TANZANIE ENTRE VENDREDI ET DIMANCHE.

VENTS FORTS:
- DU FAIT DE L'EXTENSION DU SYSTEME, LA GRANDE COMORE DEVRAIT RESTER
A DISTANCE DE LA FORCE COUP DE VENT.
- DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT SONT POSSIBLES SUR LE SUD DU
LITTORAL TANZANIEN A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.

MER:
- UNE MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4M SUR LA GRANDE
COMORE, ET DE 4 A 6 M SUR LE LITTORAL LE LONG DES COTES DE LA
TANZANIE ET AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE MOZAMBICAINE CABO DELGADO EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, DEBUT DU WEEK-END.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 021209
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/05/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/05/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 23 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 44.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 140 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 300 NM
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 00 UTC:
9.0 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 12 UTC:
8.7 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020718
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/02 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2024/05/03 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 6.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HIDAYA HAS REMAINED IN
A CURVED BAND OF CLOUDS, BUT CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED ON THE NORTHEAST
COAST, AS CONFIRMED BY THE SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0236Z. IN SUCH A
CONFIGURATION, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 3. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE WINDS FROM THE LATEST ASCAT
AT 0557Z ESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY AT 06Z AT 40KT. THE
ASCAT WAS AVAILABLE TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE RSMC
ANALYSIS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE POSITION COULD BE
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARDS AND THEN
NORTH-WESTWARDS. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THE TANZANIAN COAST AND MAFIA ISLAND AS IT WEAKENS. IT SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE NORTHWARDS ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE RSMC FORECAST
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WHICH IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRAJECTORY.

THERE IS NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORING ITS INTENSIFICATION, AND SHOULD REACH THE STAGE OF
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. BEYOND THIS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GRADUALLY INJECTING
DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY, CIRCULATING CLOSE TO THE TANZANIAN COAST AS
A FILLING LOW THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.

IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
HEAVY RAIN:
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY AND OVER THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, OF THE ORDER OF
100 TO 150 MM NEAR ALDABRA BEFORE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.
- WITH A PASSAGE OF ALMOST 250KM (BUT WITH STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY), THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO (AND MORE PARTICULARLY GRANDE
COMORE) WILL BE AFFECTED BY PERIPHERAL BANDS ALSO GENERATING HEAVY
RAIN OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 250 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, LOCALLY UP
TO 300 MM OVER THE RELIEF, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
- IN SOUTHERN TANZANIA, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF CABO DELGADO AND THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF TANZANIA
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

STRONG WIND:
- DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEM, GRANDE COMORE SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM GALE FORCE WINDS.
- GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TANZANIAN COAST
FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

SEA:
- VERY HEAVY SEAS, WITH WAVES OF AROUND 4 M ON GRANDE COMORE, AND 4
TO 6 M ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST AND OFF THE MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF
CABO DELGADO AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020718
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 44.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/05/2024 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 03/05/2024 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 03/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 04/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 04/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 0

72H: 05/05/2024 06 UTC: 6.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HIDAYA
ADOPTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE INCURVEE MAIS LA
CONVECTION S'EST AMELIOREE COTE NORD-EST, CONFIRMEE PAR L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES SSMI DE 0236Z. DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, L'ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK RESTE A 3. CONFORMEMENT A L'ANALYSE DVORAK, LES
VENTS DE LA DERNIERE ASCAT DE 0557Z ESTIMENT L'INTENSITE DES VENTS
MOYENS MAXIMAUX A 06Z A 40KT. L'ASCAT EST ARRIVEE TROP TARDIVEMENT
POUR ETRE PRISE EN COMPTE DANS L'ANALYSE DU CMRS POUR LA LOCALISATION
DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME. LA POSITION POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU PLUS AU NORD.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES ECHEANCES, AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE ET LE
GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST. DANS CE
SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE PROGRESSIVEMENT DES COTES
TANZANIENNES ET DE MAFIA ISLAND EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT. ELLE DEVRAIT
ENSUITE POURSUIVRE SA ROUTE VERS LE NORD EN LONGEANT LES COTES
TANZANIENNES. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE,
INDUISANT AINSI UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU
SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME
CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES QUI FAVORISENT SON INTENSIFICATION ET DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL CE SOIR. AU-DELA, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT SE DEGRADER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN
RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE
SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU
SEIN DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI POUR CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DES
COTES DE LA TANZANIE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT CE WEEK-END
AVANT DE SE DISSIPER RAPIDEMENT.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:
FORTES PLUIES:
- FORTES PLUIES ACTUELLEMENT ET PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 24/48H, DE
L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM A PROXIMITE D'ALDABRA AVANT UNE AMELIORATION
SAMEDI.
- AVEC UN PASSAGE A PRES DE 250KM (MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE
IMPORTANTE), L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES (ET PLUS PARTICULIEREMENT LA
GRANDE COMORE) SERA TOUCHEE PAR DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES GENERANT
EGALEMENT DE FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 250 MM DANS LES 72
PROCHAINES HEURES, LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MM SUR LE RELIEF, EN
FONCTION DU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.
- SUR LE SUD DE LA TANZANIE, DES CUMULS DE 100 A 200 MM SONT
POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL DE CABO DELGADO ET LES COTES SUD DE LA
TANZANIE ENTRE VENDREDI ET DIMANCHE.

VENTS FORTS:
- DU FAIT DE L'EXTENSION DU SYSTEME, LA GRANDE COMORE DEVRAIT RESTER
A DISTANCE DE LA FORCE COUP DE VENT.
- DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT SONT POSSIBLES SUR LE SUD DU
LITTORAL TANZANIEN A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.

MER:
- UNE MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4M SUR LA GRANDE
COMORE, ET DE 4 A 6 M SUR LE LITTORAL LE LONG DES COTES DE LA
TANZANIE ET AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE MOZAMBICAINE CABO DELGADO EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, DEBUT DU WEEK-END.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020631
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/05/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/05/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 18 UTC:
9.2 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 06 UTC:
9.0 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020143
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/02 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55

24H: 2024/05/03 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2024/05/03 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65

60H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 0

72H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HIDAYA HAS KEPT A
CURVED BAND OF CLOUDS PATTERN, BUT CONVECTION HAS BECOME MUCH
STRONGER. A RING IS NOW CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE GCOM-AMSR2 MICROWAVE
PICTURE FROM 2253Z. THIS PICTURE, TOGETHER WITH THE METOP01-ASCAT
SWATH FROM 1852Z, ENABLED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER, WHICH LIES 98 NM
WEST OF ALDABRA. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION, DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS WAS INCREASED TO 3. HOWEVER, THE WINDS OF THE LAST ASCAT
HARDLY EXCEEDED 30KT, SO THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY AT 00Z WAS
ESTIMATED AT 35KT.

FOR THE EARLY STAGES, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS, DRIVEN BY
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.
THEREAFTER, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA, THE SYSTEM'S TRACK SHOULD VEER FURTHER WEST AND THEN
NORTH-WEST FROM THURSDAY EVENING. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM WOULD
PASS NORTH OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY
MORNING, BEFORE MOVING ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING.THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT,
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND, OF
COURSE, THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST INTENSITY, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT FAVOR ITS
INTENSIFICATION. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SYMMETRIZE, AND THE
PROBABLE MAXIMUM STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM COULD BE REACHED ON
THURSDAY. FROM THE END OF THE WEEK ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY
AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM WILL
CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE TANZANIAN COAST AS A FILLING LOW, THEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE.

IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
HEAVY RAINS:
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OF THE ORDER OF
100 TO 150 MM NEAR ALDABRA. MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 200 TO 400 MM
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- WITH A PASSAGE OF ALMOST 250KM (ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH), THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO (AND MORE PARTICULARLY GRANDE COMORE)
WILL BE AFFECTED BY PERIPHERAL BANDS ALSO GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL
OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 250 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PROBABLY
INTENSIFYING UP TO 300 MM IN 72 HOURS, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WIND:
- GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF ALDABRA TODAY, ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND IN THE CONVERGENCES. DUE TO THE
LIMITED EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM, GRANDE COMORE SHOULD REMAIN AWAY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THURSDAY / FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE TRACK MEANS THAT WE NEED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON THIS POINT.

SEA:
- VERY HEAVY SEAS WITH WAVES OF AROUND 4M, AND UP TO 8M MAXIMUM, ARE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF GRANDE COMORE. THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SEA, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HEART OF
THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES, WAVES OF UP TO 4M WILL SLIDE ALONG
THE COAST OF TANZANIA AND OFF THE MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF CABO DELGADO
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMEND TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND TO PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020143
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/10/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 02/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 44.6 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 45
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/05/2024 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 55

24H: 03/05/2024 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 195 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

36H: 03/05/2024 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 04/05/2024 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65

60H: 04/05/2024 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 0

72H: 05/05/2024 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HIDAYA
ADOPTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE INCURVEE MAIS LA
CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE. UN ANNEAU EST DESORMAIS
NETTEMENT VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES GCOM-AMSR2 DE 2253Z. CETTE
IMAGE AINSI QUE LA METOP01-ASCAT DE 1852Z NOUS ONT PERMIS DE
LOCALISER LE CENTRE QUI SE SITUE A 98 MN A L'OUEST D'ALDABRA. DANS
UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK A ETE AUGMENTEE
A 3. CEPENDANT LES VENTS DE LA DERNIERE ASCAT DEPASSENT DIFFICILEMENT
30KT, L'INTENSITE DES VENTS MOYENS MAXIMAUX A 00Z A DONC ETE EVALUEE
A 35KT.

AU COURS DES PREMIERES ECHEANCES LE SYSTEME EFFECTUE SON TRAJET VERS
LE SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LE FLUX D'ALTITUDE QUE GENERE LA DORSALE
PRESENTE SUR L'OCEAN INDIEN. PAR LA SUITE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE ET LE
GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT SA INFLECHIR PLUS VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST A A
COMPTER DE JEUDI SOIR. DANS CE SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME TRANSITERAIT
JEUDI SOIR OU VENDREDI MATIN AU NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES, AVANT
DE LONGER ENSUITE LES COTES DE LA TANZANIE TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT
GRADUELLEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE,
INDUISANT AINSI UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE ET BIEN
EVIDEMMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME
CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES QUI FAVORISENT SON INTENSIFICATION. LES VENTS
CONTINUENT A SE SYMETRISER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET LE STADE MAXIMAL
PROBABLE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT JEUDI.
AU-DELA, A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE SEMAINE, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT SE DEGRADER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN RAISON D'UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD A
NORD-OUEST, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SYSTEME CIRCULERA A PROXIMITE DES
COTES DE LA TANZANIE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS SE
DISSIPERA RAPIDEMENT.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:
FORTES PLUIES:
- FORTES PLUIES ACTUELLEMENT ET PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 24H, DE
L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM A PROXIMITE D'ALDABRA. DES CUMULS MAX DE
L'ORDRE DE 200 A 400 MM SONT POSSIBLES DANS LES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES.
- AVEC UN PASSAGE A PRES DE 250KM (MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE
IMPORTANTE), L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES (ET PLUS PARTICULIEREMENT LA
GRANDE COMORE) SERA TOUCHEE PAR DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES GENERANT
EGALEMENT DE FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 250 MM DANS LES 48
PROCHAINES HEURES POUVANT S'INTENSIFIER PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MM
EN 72H, EN FONCTION DU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.

VENTS FORTS:
- DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT SONT PROBABLES AU VOISINAGE
D'ALDABRA CE MATIN EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME AINSI QUE DANS LES
CONVERGENCES. DU FAIT DE L'EXTENSION LIMITE DU SYSTEME, LA GRANDE
COMORE DEVRAIT RESTER A DISTANCE DE LA FORCE COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE
JEUDI / VENDREDI. TOUTEFOIS, L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DEMANDE
DE RESTER PRUDENT SUR CE POINT.

MER:
- UNE MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4M, ET POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 8M MAXIMUM, EST ATTENDUE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI AU VOISINAGE
DE LA GRANDE COMORE. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES RESTANT CONFINEES EN
MER ASSEZ PROCHE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE
CELUI-CI, DES VAGUES DE 4M GLISSERONT LE LONG DES COTES DE LA
TANZANIE ET AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE MOZAMBICAINE CABO DELGADO EN FIN
DE SEMAINE,DEBUT DU WEEK-END.

IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SUIVRE DE PRES LA EVOLUTION DU
SYSTEME ET DE SE PREPARER A CETTE MENACE POTENTIELLE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020016 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
390 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 95
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 12 UTC:
9.1 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 00 UTC:
9.1 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020013
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/05/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/05/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
390 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 95
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 12 UTC:
9.1 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/03 AT 00 UTC:
9.1 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011858
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 44.9 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/02 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2024/05/02 18 UTC: 9.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/05/03 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 55

48H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 55

60H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 8.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 65

72H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/05/05 18 UTC: 4.7 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED IN A CURVED BAND. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SEEMS TO FAVOR CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SIDE, WHERE CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY. A RING IS
NOW VISIBLE IN THE 1530Z MICROWAVE IMAGE SSMIS-F17. THE LAST VISIBLE
IMAGES EVEN SHOW THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION,
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 2.5+ WITH
MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS OF 35KT. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE BEEN NAMED
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HIDAYA.

TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNDERGOING LITTLE CHANGE: IN THE EARLY
STAGES, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARDS, THEN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INDIAN
OCEAN. SUBSEQUENTLY, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA, THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS SET TO VEER MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTH-WEST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM
WOULD PASS NORTH OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON THURSDAY EVENING OR
FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE MOVING ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT,
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND, OF
COURSE, THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST INTENSITY: THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AND ITS LOW-LEVEL FEED IS
NO LONGER REALLY GENERATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ITS EASTERN
SECTOR, WHICH FAVORS ITS INTENSIFICATION. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SYMMETRIZE, AND THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE REACHED ON THURSDAY. FROM THE END OF THE WEEK ONWARDS,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE,
GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS
CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE TANZANIAN COAST AS A
FILLING LOW, THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.


IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
HEAVY RAINS:
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OF THE ORDER OF
100 TO 200 MM NEAR ALDABRA. MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 300 TO 500 MM
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- WITH A PASSAGE OF ALMOST 200KM M (ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH), THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO (AND MORE PARTICULARLY GRANDE COMORE)
WILL BE AFFECTED BY PERIPHERAL BANDS ALSO GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL
OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PROBABLY
INTENSIFYING TO 200 TO 300 MM IN 72 HOURS, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WIND:
- GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF ALDABRA TODAY, ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND IN THE CONVERGENCES. DUE TO THE
LIMITED EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM, GRANDE COMORE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THURSDAY / FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK MEANS THAT WE NEED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON
THIS POINT.

SEA:
- VERY HEAVY SEAS WITH WAVES OF AROUND 4M, AND UP TO 8M MAXIMUM, ARE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF GRANDE COMORE. THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SEA, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HEART OF
THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES, WAVES OF UP TO 4M WILL SLIDE ALONG
THE COAST OF TANZANIA AND OFF THE MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF CABO DELGADO
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMEND TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND TO PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011858
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HIDAYA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 01/05/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.7 S / 44.9 E
(HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 0

24H: 02/05/2024 18 UTC: 9.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 03/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 55

48H: 03/05/2024 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 55

60H: 04/05/2024 06 UTC: 8.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 65

72H: 04/05/2024 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/05/2024 18 UTC: 4.7 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME
EST RESTEE EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA CONVECTION S'EST LEGEREMENT
AFFAIBLIE DANS LE SECTEUR EST DU SYSTEME CE QUI SEMBLE FAFORISER LA
CONVERGENCE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD, OU LA CONVECTION S'EST AU CONTRAIRE
UN PEU RENFORCEE. UN ANNEAU EST DESORMAIS VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS-F17 DE 1530Z. LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES
LAISSENT MEME APPARAITRE LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME. DANS UNE TELLE
CONFIGURATION, L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK A ETE AUGMENTEE A 2.5+
AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS MAXIMAUX DE 35KT. LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE BAPTISE
EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HIDAYA.

LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU: AU COURS
DES PREMIERES ECHEANCES LE SYSTEME EFFECTUE SON TRAJET VERS L'OUEST
PUIS VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE SUR
L'OCEAN INDIEN. PAR LA SUITE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE ET LE GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SA
INFLECHIR PLUS VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. DANS CE
SCENARIO, LE SYSTEME TRANSITERAIT JEUDI SOIR OU VENDREDI MATIN AU
NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES, AVANT DE LONGER ENSUITE LES COTES DE
LA TANZANIE TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT GRADUELLEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS
EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE, INDUISANT AINSI UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE ET BIEN EVIDEMMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
FINALE DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME
CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES ET SON ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES N'EST PLUS
VRAIMENT GENEE PAR L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DANS SON SECTEUR EST, CE QUI
FAVORISE SON INTENSIFICATION. LES VENTS CONTINUENT A SE SYMETRISER
PROGRESSIVEMENT ET LE STADE MAXIMAL PROBABLE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICAL POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT JEUDI. AU-DELA, A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE
SEMAINE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT SE DEGRADER
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT
DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE
SYSTEME CIRCULERA A PROXIMITE DES COTES DE LA TANZANIE AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS SE DISSIPERA RAPIDEMENT.

IMPACTS PREVUS AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES:
FORTES PLUIES:
- FORTES PLUIES ACTUELLEMENT ET PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 24H, DE
L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200 MM A PROXIMITE D'ALDABRA. DES CUMULS MAX DE
L'ORDRE DE 300 A 500 MM SONT POSSIBLES DANS LES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES.
- AVEC UN PASSAGE A PRES DE 200KM (MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE
IMPORTANTE), L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES (ET PLUS PARTICULIEREMENT LA
GRANDE COMORE) SERA TOUCHEE PAR DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES GENERANT
EGALEMENT DE FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48
PROCHAINES HEURES S'INTENSIFIANT PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'A 200 A 300 MM EN
72H, EN FONCTION DU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.

VENTS FORTS:
- DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT SONT PROBABLES AU VOISINAGE
D'ALDABRA AUJOURD'HUI EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME AINSI QUE DANS LES
CONVERGENCES. DU FAIT DE L'EXTENSION LIMITE DU SYSTEME, LA GRANDE
COMORE DEVRAIT RESTER EN MARGE DE LA FORCE COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE
JEUDI / VENDREDI. TOUTEFOIS, L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DEMANDE
DE RESTER PRUDENT SUR CE POINT.

MER:
- UNE MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4M, ET POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 8M MAXIMUM, EST ATTENDUE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI AU VOISINAGE
DE LA GRANDE COMORE. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES RESTANT CONFINEES EN
MER ASSEZ PROCHE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE
CELUI-CI, DES VAGUES DE 4M GLISSERONT LE LONG DES COTES DE LA
TANZANIE ET AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE MOZAMBICAINE CABO DELGADO EN FIN
DE SEMAINE,DEBUT DU WEEK-END.

IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SUIVRE DE PRES LA EVOLUTION DU
SYSTEME ET DE SE PREPARER A CETTE MENACE POTENTIELLE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011843 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 44.9 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 06 UTC:
8.9 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 18 UTC:
9.0 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/05/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/05/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 44.9 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 06 UTC:
8.9 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/05/02 AT 18 UTC:
9.0 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=