Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GAMANE-24 in Madagascar from 25 Mar 2024 18:00 UTC to 28 Mar 2024 00:00 UTC

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Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMANE-24

in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

28/03 19:51 WTXS31PGTW282100

28/03 19:51 WTXS51PGTW282100

28/03 13:40 WTXS31PGTW281500

28/03 13:40 WTXS51PGTW281500

28/03 12:47 WTIO30FMEE281235

28/03 12:47 WTIO31FMEE281235

28/03 07:20 WTIO30FMEE280647

28/03 07:20 WTIO31FMEE280647

28/03 01:33 WTXS51PGTW280300

28/03 01:32 WTXS31PGTW280300

28/03 01:31 WTIO30FMEE280052

28/03 01:31 WTIO31FMEE280052

28/03 00:47 WTIO22FMEE280018

27/03 19:24 WTIO30FMEE271845

27/03 19:24 WTIO31FMEE271845

27/03 18:09 WTIO22FMEE271806

27/03 14:14 WTXS51PGTW271500

27/03 14:13 WTXS31PGTW271500

27/03 13:19 WTIO30FMEE271241

27/03 13:19 WTIO31FMEE271241

27/03 12:28 WTIO22FMEE271227CCA

27/03 12:08 WTIO22FMEE271206

27/03 07:31 WTIO30FMEE270644

27/03 07:31 WTIO31FMEE270644

27/03 06:19 WTIO22FMEE270617

27/03 01:20 WTIO30FMEE270046

27/03 01:20 WTIO31FMEE270046

27/03 00:23 WTIO22FMEE270022

26/03 19:51 WTIO30FMEE261854

26/03 19:51 WTIO31FMEE261854

26/03 18:17 WTIO22FMEE261814

26/03 13:41 WTIO30FMEE261239

26/03 13:41 WTIO31FMEE261239

26/03 12:07 WTIO22FMEE261204

26/03 08:29 WTIO30FMEE260704

26/03 08:29 WTIO31FMEE260704

26/03 06:26 WTIO22FMEE260622

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 47.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 47.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.3S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 48.1E.
28MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 1007 MB.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 240328192627
2024032818 20S GAMANE 007 01 145 04 SATL 045
T000 144S 0478E 025
T012 153S 0490E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 47.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 47.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.3S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 48.1E.
28MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 1007 MB.//
2024032418 127S 527E 20
2024032500 124S 525E 20
2024032506 124S 522E 30
2024032512 124S 520E 30
2024032518 125S 516E 30
2024032600 125S 509E 35
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032718 137S 488E 45
2024032800 137S 481E 35
2024032806 136S 473E 30
2024032812 141S 476E 30
2024032818 144S 478E 25
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 47.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 47.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.9S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.7S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.1S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 47.9E. 28MAR24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 240328131957
2024032812 20S GAMANE 006 01 150 06 SATL 050
T000 141S 0476E 030
T012 150S 0486E 025
T024 159S 0496E 025
T036 169S 0508E 030
T048 177S 0522E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 181S 0546E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 47.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 47.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.9S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.7S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.1S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 47.9E. 28MAR24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
2024032418 127S 527E 20
2024032500 124S 525E 20
2024032506 124S 522E 30
2024032512 124S 520E 30
2024032518 125S 516E 30
2024032600 125S 509E 35
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032718 137S 488E 45
2024032800 137S 481E 35
2024032806 136S 473E 30
2024032812 141S 476E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 47.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2024/03/29 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

36H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2024/03/30 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130

60H: 2024/03/31 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/03/31 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/04/01 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, GAMANE HAS CONTINUED TO STAGNATE JUST OUTSIDE
MADAGASCAR IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OFF MAROMANDJA.THE ASCAT PASS AT
0630Z CONFIRMED THIS OUTFLOW, WITH A LOOSE STRUCTURE AND MAXIMUM
NON-CONVECTION WINDS OF 20KT.AFTER AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AT MIDDAY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AGAIN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.GAMANE
REMAINS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH WINDS OF 20KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES, BOTH IN THE
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GIVEN THE WIDE DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE.
GAMANE'S MOVEMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEN, AT THE END OF THE DAY OR EVENING ON FRIDAY, GAMANE
COULD EMERGE FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE
AND CAP EST. THE CURRENT TRACK FOR THE MADAGASCAR CROSSING IS BASED
ON THE Z850 FROM AROME, IFS AND GFS. THEN, CHANNELED BETWEEN A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, A SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IS
FAVORED. FINALLY, ON SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, IT COULD TURN BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARDS
THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC FORECAST IS THEREFORE BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AROME, IFS AND GFS MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GAMANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF A
DISTURBED ZONE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITHOUT REGAINING CONDITIONS
FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THEN, WHEN IT EMERGES,
DESPITE DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE HIGH SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
THE SYSTEM'S REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL RUNS THAT
SUGGEST TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON
SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT PRESENT.THEN, FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD FILL IN THE SYSTEM ONCE AND FOR ALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE DIEGO-SUAREZ AND TAMATAVE REGIONS. 200-300MM OVER THE NEXT 72H
POSSIBLE.
- MASCAREIGNES: RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100MM POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER MAURITIUS.

CMRS IS STOPPING REGULAR MONITORING OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN ACTIVE
WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED AND REGULAR BULLETINS MAY BE ISSUED IF THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AGAIN TOMORROW. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20
FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20232024
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 47.4 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1010 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/03/2024 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 29/03/2024 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

36H: 30/03/2024 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 120

48H: 30/03/2024 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 130

60H: 31/03/2024 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 31/03/2024 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2024 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, GAMANE A CONTINUE DE STAGNER JUSTE EN
SORTIE DE MADAGASCAR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE AU LARGE DE
MAROMANDJA. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0630Z A PU CONFIRMER CETTE RESSORTIE EN
MER AVEC UNE STRUCTURE LACHE ET DES VENTS HORS CONVECTION MAXIMUM DE
20KT. APRES UN REGAIN DE CONVECTION A LA MI-JOURNEE, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE S'EST DE NOUEAU AFFAIBLIE CES DERNIERES HEURES. GAMANE
EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE ZONE PERTURBEE AVEC DES VENTS DE 20KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE DIFFERENCES PAR RAPPORT A LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE. IL EXISTE ENCORE DE FORTES INCERTITUDES, AUSSI
BIEN A COURT TERME QU'A MOYEN TERME ETANT DONNE LA FORTE DISPERSION
DES GUIDANCES. LE DEPLACEMENT DE GAMANE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
DIRIGER DE NOUVEAU VERS MADAGASCAR DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. PUIS
EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE DE VENDREDI, GAMANE POURRAIT RESSORTIR DE
LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE SAINTE MARIE ET LE CAP EST. LA
TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE POUR LA TRAVERSEE DE MADAGASCAR EST BASEE SUR LE
Z850 DE AROME, IFS ET GFS. ENSUITE, CANALISE ENTRE UN THALWEG PASSANT
AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST, UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EST
PRIVILEGIE. ENFIN, DIMANCHE SOIR OU LUNDI, IL POURRAIT REBROUSSER
CHEMIN VERS LE NORD-OUEST. LA GRANDE MAJORTIE DES MEMBRES DES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS SEMBLENT DORENAVANT S'ORIENTER
VERS LE SCENARIO. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST DONC BASEE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES AROME, IFS ET GFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GAMANE DEVRAIT RESTER SOUS FORME DE ZONE
PERTURBEE LES PROCHAINES HEURES SANS RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS POUR
UNE INTENSIFICATION AVANT DE RETOUCHER TERRE. PUIS LORS DE SA
RESSORTIE, MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CORRECTES, LE FORT
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LIMITER LA REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. IL
EXISTE CEPENDANT ENCORE DES RUNS QUI PROPOSENT UNE INTENSIFICATION
TEMPORAIRE JUSQU'AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI
MAIS CE N'EST PAS ACTUELLEMENT LE SCENARIO MAJORITAIRE. IL NE PEUT
TOUTEFOIS PAS ETRE COMPLETEMNT EXCLU A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. PUIS, A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET DE
POSSIBLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, DEVRAIENT COMBLER DEFINITIVEMENT LE
SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
- MADAGASCAR : CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM SUR LES PROCHAINES 24H SUR LES
REGIONS DE DIEGO-SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE. CUMULS JUSQU'A 200-300MM SUR
LES PROCHAINES 72H POSSIBLES.
- MASCAREIGNES : CUMULS JUSQU'A 100MM POSSIBLES DIMANCHE, NOTAMMENT
SUR MAURICE.

LE CMRS STOPPE LE SUIVI REGULIER DU SYSTEME. CEPENDANT, UNE VEILLE
ACTIVE SERA EFFECTUEE ET UNE REPRISE DES BULLETINS REGULIERS SERONT
POSSIBLES EN CAS DE REINTENSIFICATION DEMAIN. DES INFORMATIONS
COMPLEMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN
QUOTIDIEN SUR LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE
SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 47.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/28 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

24H: 2024/03/29 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/03/29 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2024/03/30 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2024/03/30 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2024/03/31 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/04/01 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, GAMANE HAS RE-EMERGED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN A WEAKENED AND DISORGANIZED FORM. CONVECTION IS
ESSENTIALLY REJECTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. THE CENTER HAS BEEN POSITIONED MAINLY ON THE BASIS OF THE
ANIMATION OF THIS MORNING'S VISIBLE IMAGES. GAMANE HAS THEREFORE BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH MEAN WINDS OF 20KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE ARE STILL MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES, BOTH IN THE
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GIVEN THE WIDE DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE.
GAMANE'S DISPLACEMENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTLY MARKED AT SEA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NOSY BE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE HEADING BACK
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR IN THE EVENING. THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY OR ON
FRIDAY EVENING, GAMANE COULD EMERGE FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND CAP EST. THEN, CHANNELED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, A SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IS
FAVORED. FINALLY, AT THE VERY END, IT COULD TURN BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH-WEST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS THEREFORE BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AROME,
IFS AND GFS MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GAMANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF A
ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER TODAY, WITHOUT REGAINING CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN THIS EVENING.
THEN, WHEN IT EMERGES AGAIN, DESPITE DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S REINTENSIFICATION.HOWEVER,
THERE ARE STILL RUNS SUGGESTING A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION ON
SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY SCENARIO.THEN, FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR SHOULD FILL IN THE SYSTEM.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE DIEGO-SUAREZ AND TAMATAVE REGIONS. 300-400MM OVER THE NEXT 72H
POSSIBLE.
- MASCAREIGNES: RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100MM POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER MAURITIUS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280647
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20232024
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 47.1 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1010 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2024 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

24H: 29/03/2024 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 29/03/2024 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

48H: 30/03/2024 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 30/03/2024 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 31/03/2024 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2024 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, GAMANE EST RESSORTI DANS LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE SOUS FORME AFFAIBLIE ET DESORGANISEE. LA CONVECTION EST
ESSENTIELLEMENT REJETEE AU NORD ET AU NORD-OUEST DU CENTRE ESTIME. LE
CENTRE A ETE PLACE ESSENTIELLEMENT A PARTIR DE L'ANIMATION DES IMAGES
VISIBLES DE CE MATIN. GAMANE A DONC ETE CLASSE ZONE PERTURBEE AVEC
DES VENTS MOYENS DE 20KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IL EXISTENCE ENCORE DE FORTES INCERTITUDES,
AUSSI BIEN A COURT TERME QU'A MOYEN TERME ETANT DONNE LA FORTE
DISPERSION DES GUIDANCES. LE DEPLACEMENT DE GAMANE DEVRAIT RESTER PEU
MARQUE EN MER AU SUD-EST DE NOSY BE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H AVANT
DE SE DIRIGER DE NOUVEAU VERS MADAGASCAR EN SOIREE. PUIS EN FIN DE
JOURNEE OU SOIREE DE VENDREDI, GAMANE POURRAIT RESSORTIR DE LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE SAINTE MARIE ET LE CAP EST. PUIS, CANALISE
ENTRE UN THALWEG PASSANT AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST, UN
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EST PRIVILEGIE. ENFIN, EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, IL POURRAIT REBROUSSER CHEMIN VERS LE NORD-OUEST. LA
GRANDE MAJORTIE DES MEMBRES DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEENS ET
AMERICAINS SEMBLENT DORENAVANT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SCENARIO. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST DONC BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MODELES
AROME, IFS ET GFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GAMANE DEVRAIT RESTER SOUS FORME DE ZONE
PERTURBEE AUJOURD'HUI SANS RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION AVANT DE RETOUCHER TERRE EN SOIRE. PUIS LORS DE SA
RESSORTIE, MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMTALES CORRECTES, LE FORT
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LIMITER LA REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. IL
EXISTE CEPENDANT ENCORE DES RUNS QUI PROPOSENT UNE INTENSIFOCATION
TEMPORAIRE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI MAIS CE N'EST PAS ACTUELLEMENT LE
SCENARIO MAJORITAIRE. PUIS, A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET A DE POSSIBLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC,
DEVRAIT COMBLER LE SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
- MADAGASCAR : CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM SUR LES PROCHAINES 24H SUR LES
REGIONS DE DIEGO-SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE. CUMULS JUSQU'A 300-400MM SUR
LES PROCHAINES 72H POSSIBLES.
- MASCAREIGNES : CUMULS JUSQU'A 100MM POSSIBLES DIMANCHE, NOTAMMENT
SUR MAURICE.=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 240328004134
2024032800 20S GAMANE 005 01 215 04 SATL 030
T000 139S 0488E 040 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 145S 0489E 035 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 151S 0497E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 157S 0507E 040 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 162S 0517E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 178S 0544E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 202S 0577E 035 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.1S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.7S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.2S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 48.8E.
28MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z
IS 1000 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
2024032418 127S 527E 20
2024032500 124S 525E 20
2024032506 124S 522E 30
2024032512 124S 520E 30
2024032518 125S 516E 30
2024032600 125S 509E 35
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032706 129S 497E 80
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032718 136S 490E 50
2024032718 136S 490E 50
2024032800 139S 488E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.1S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.7S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.2S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 48.8E.
28MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
280000Z
IS 1000 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20232024
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 49.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/28 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 100

36H: 2024/03/29 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100

48H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100

60H: 2024/03/30 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 110

72H: 2024/03/31 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/04/01 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2024/04/02 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NEANT (OVERLAND)

MOVING FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS OVER MADAGASCAR LANDMASS, GAMANE'S
CLOUD PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY DELAMINATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AS
SHOWN BY THE LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE POSITION OF THE CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER WAS ESTIMATED USING MICROWAVE PASSES FROM GMI (1755Z)
AND AMSR-2 (2221Z). THE LATTER SHOW A REMNANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE CORE, BUT ABOVE ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
UPWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST SINCE 18Z. AVERAGE WINDS SPEED OF THE
ORDER OF 35 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DPRINT DATA AND MODEL ANALYSES.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, AND
GUIDANCES ARE STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
OVER BOTH SHORT- AND LONG-TERM TRAJECTORIES. NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST
EPS AND GEFS RELEASES ARE TIMIDLY BEGINNING TO AGREE ON A GLOBAL
SCENARIO IN THE DIRECTION OF AN INDIAN OCEAN EXIT, EVEN IF EPS IS
STILL PROPOSING A FEW MEMBERS EXITING THE CHANNEL. THE CMRS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE IFS/AROME AND GFS MODELS, WITH
THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND IN A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST. AN EXIT
VIA THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON FRIDAY IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. IN
THIS CASE, MOVEMENT WOULD BE CHANNELLED SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN EXIT VIA THE
WEST COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AT
PRESENT. THIS SCENARIO IS THEREFORE NOT FAVORED BY CMRS.

GAMANE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNTIL IT IS LIKELY TO RE-EMERGE AT SEA ON FRIDAY.
IF THIS IS THE CASE, GAMANE SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY, AS ITS STRUCTURE
IS LESS WELL CONSOLIDATED FOLLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY
RELIEF. ON FRIDAY / SATURDAY, GAMANE COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE STORM
STAGE THANKS TO TEMPORARILY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THEN OVER
THE WEEKEND, DUE TO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR, THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
DELAMINATED.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 100 AND 300 MM IN 24 HOURS OVER
THE PROVINCE OF DIEGO-SUAREZ (REGION FROM ANTALAHA TO SAMBAVA,
EXTENDING AS FAR AS NOSY-BE). LOCALLY, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM 300 TO 600 MM OVER THE SAVA REGION. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE NORTH OF TAMATAVE PROVINCE, WITH 24-HOUR TOTALS IN THE
ORDER OF 300 TO 400 MM. DURING THE LAND TRANSIT PERIOD, EXTREME TOTAL
TOTALS OF OVER 600 - 700 MM ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY OVER THE DIEGO
GARCIA RELIEF, AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST OF TAMATAVE PROVINCE. THESE
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN PLACES.
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280052
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 49.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2024 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 29/03/2024 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 220 NO: 100

36H: 29/03/2024 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100

48H: 30/03/2024 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100

60H: 30/03/2024 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 220 NO: 110

72H: 31/03/2024 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/04/2024 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 02/04/2024 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT (SUR TERRE)

EVOLUANT DEPUIS PLUS DE 18 HEURES SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GAMANE S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT DELITEE AU
COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, COMME LE MONTRENT LES DERNIERES
ANIMATIONS SATELLITAIRES. LA POSITION DU CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES A PU A TRE ESTIME GRACE AUX PASSES MICRO-ONDE DE LA GMI
(1755Z) ET DE L'AMSR-2 (2221Z). CES DERNIERES FAUCHEES PRESENTENT UN
RELIQUAT DU COEUR CONVECTIF DE BASSES COUCHES MAIS SURTOUT SUGGERENT
QUE LE SYSTEME EST REMONTE DEPUIS 18Z EN DIRECTION DU NORD-OUEST. DES
VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 35 KT SONT ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, SUPPORTES PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES
DU DPRINT ET DES ANALYSES MODELE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES
GUIDANCES RESTENT TOUJOURS FORTEMENT DISPERSEES, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE QUE CE SOIT A COURTE OU LONGUE
ECHEANCE. NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERES SORTIE DE L'EPS ET LE GEFS
COMMENCENT TIMIDEMENT A S'ACCORDER SUR UN SCENARIO GLOBAL EN
DIRECTION D'UNE RESSORTIE SUR L'OCEAN INDIEN, MEME SI L'EPS PROPOSE
TOUJOURS QUELQUES MEMBRES RESSORTANT SUR LE CANAL. LA PREVISION CMRS
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES IFS/AROME ET GFS, AVEC UN
DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST.
UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR VENDREDI RESTE ENVISAGEE.
DANS CE CAS, LE MOUVEMENT SERAIT CANALISE VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRE UN
TALWEG PASSANT AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST. UNE RESSORTIE PAR
LA COTE OUEST AU NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE N'EST PAS EXCLUE MEME SI
CE SCENARIO DEVIENT DE PLUS EN PLUS MARGINAL A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. CE
SCENARIO N'EST DONC PAS PRIVILEGIE PAR LE CMRS.

GAMANE CONSERVE ENCORE UNE INTENSITE ASSEZ FORTE MAIS DEVRAIT EN
TOUTE LOGIQUE S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES,
JUSQU'A SA PROBABLE RESSORTIE EN MER EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. DANS
CETTE HYPOTHESE GAMANE DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
UNE STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN CONSOLIDEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION AVEC LE
RELIEF MALGACHE. VENDREDI / SAMEDI GAMANE POURRAIT ATTEINDRE
BRIEVEMENT LE STADE DE TEMPETE A LA FAVEUR DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES TEMPORAIREMENT BONNES, PUIS AU COURS DU WEEK-END EN
RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET A DE POSSIBLES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT ENSUITE SE DELITER
PROGRESSIVEMENT.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 300 MM EN 24H SUR LA PROVINCE
DE DIEGO-SUAREZ (REGION D'ANTALAHA JUSQU'A SAMBAVA S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A
NOSY-BE). LOCALEMENT, LES CUMULS S'ECHELONNENT ENTRE 300 ET 600 MM
SUR LA REGION DE SAVA. LES FORTES PLUIES CONCERNERONT EGALEMENT LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE TAMATAVE AVEC DES CUMULS EN 24H DE L'ORDRE DE
300 A 400 MM. AU COURS DE LA PERIODE DE TRANSIT SUR TERRE, DES
CUMULS TOTAUX EXTREMES DE PLUS DE 600/700 MM SONT ATTENDUS
PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LE RELIEF DE DIEGO GARCIA, AINSI QUE SUR LE
LITTORAL NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE TAMATAVE. CES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS
POURRONT PROVOQUER PAR ENDROITS DES CRUES ECLAIR ET DES GLISSEMENTS
DE TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT RESIDUELS SUR LA REGION DE DIANA,
MOLLISSANT RAPIDEMENT EN CETTE FIN DE NUIT.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 280018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/03/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 28/03/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GAMANE) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 49.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDINDG
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2024/03/29 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/28 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2024/03/28 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/03/29 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/29 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2024/03/30 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2024/03/30 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/31 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2024/04/01 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NEANT (OVERLAND)

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GAMANE HAS MAINTAINED ITS SLOW MOVEMENT OVER
MADAGASCAR. DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE LAND, DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS STRONG, WITH EXTENDED AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. CONVECTIVE
BURSTS ARE PRESENT, LINKED TO OVERSHOOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER, SUGGESTING A STILL SOLID TROPICAL SYSTEM STRUCTURE.
SHORTLY AFTER 15UTC, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE CURVED ITS COURSE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. AVERAGE WINDS SPEED OF AROUND 40 KT ARE
THEREFORE ESTIMATED WITHIN THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DPRINT
DATA AND MODEL ANALYSES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, GUIDANCES ARE STILL WIDELY DISPERSED,
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM
TRACK. NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS RELEASES ARE SHYLY
BEGINNING TO AGREE ON A GLOBAL SCENARIO IN THE DIRECTION OF A
BREAKOUT OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN, EVEN IF EPS IS STILL PROPOSING A FEW
MEMBERS EXITING ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE IFS/AROME AND IFS MODELS, WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS OVER LAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AN EXIT VIA THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON FRIDAY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. IN THIS CASE, MOVEMENT WOULD BE SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AN EXIT
VIA THE WEST COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS STAGE, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORED BY RSMC.

DESPITE ITS PASSAGE OVER MADAGASCAR, GAMANE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG,
BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, UNTIL IT
EMERGES OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. IN THE EVENT OF A RETURN TO THE SEA
(WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY GUARANTEED), THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLOWLY, DUE TO A LESS CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE FOLLOWING INTERACTION
WITH THE MALAGASY RELIEF. THEN, DUE TO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND POSSIBLE INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ALOFT, THE
CONVECTION SHOULD LOOSEN UP OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 100 AND 300 MM IN 24 HOURS OVER
THE PROVINCE OF DIEGO-SUAREZ (REGION FROM ANTALAHA TO SAMBAVA,
EXTENDING AS FAR AS NOSY-BE). LOCALLY, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM 300 TO 600 MM OVER THE SAVA REGION. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE NORTH OF TAMATAVE PROVINCE, WITH 24-HOUR TOTALS IN THE
ORDER OF 300 TO 400 MM. DURING THE LAND TRANSIT PERIOD, EXTREME TOTAL
TOTALS OF OVER 600 - 700 MM ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY OVER THE DIEGO
GARCIA RELIEF, AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST OF TAMATAVE PROVINCE. THESE
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN PLACES.
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES RECEDING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE. WITH THE PROBABLE EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM
IN THE BASIN, A STRENGTHENING OF THE SEA REMAINS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
LOCALLY OFF TAMATAVE PROVINCE. FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 49.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2024 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 28/03/2024 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 29/03/2024 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 29/03/2024 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 30/03/2024 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 30/03/2024 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2024 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 01/04/2024 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT (SUR TERRE)

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GAMANE A POURSUIVI SON LENT
DEPLACEMENT SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES. MALGRE SON INTERACTION AVEC LE
RELIEF, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE MARQUEE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
ETENDUS ET TRA S FROIDS. DES BURSTS CONVECTIFS SONT PRESENTS LIES A
DES OVERSHOOTS, PRES DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SUPPOSE, SUGGERANT
AINSI UNE STRUCTURE DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICALE ENCORE SOLIDE. PEU APRA
S 15UTC, LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-SUD-EST. DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 40 KT SONT DONC
ESTIMES AU SEIN DU SYSTEME, SUPPORTES PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU
DPRINT ET DES ANALYSES MODELE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES GUIDANCES RESTENT TOUJOURS
FORTEMENT DISPERSEES, D'OU UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
QUE CE SOIT A COURTE OU LONGUE ECHEANCE. NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERES
SORTIE DE L'EPS ET LE GEFS COMMENCENT TIMIDEMENT A S'ACCORDER SUR UN
SCENARIO GLOBAL EN DIRECTION D'UNE RESSORTIE SUR L'OCEAN INDIEN, MEME
SI L'EPS PROPOSE TOUJOURS QUELQUES MEMBRES RESSORTANT SUR LE CANAL.
LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES IFS/AROME ET
IFS, AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD EN LONGEANT LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST. UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA
COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR VENDREDI RESTE ENVISAGEE. DANS CE CAS, LE
MOUVEMENT SERAIT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRE UN TALWEG PASSANT AU
SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST. TOUTEFOIS, UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA COTE
OUEST AU NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE N'EST PAS EXCLUE A CE STADE MEME
SI ENCORE UNE FOIS CE SCENARIO N'EST PAS PRIVILEGIE PAR LE CMRS
ACTUELLEMENT

MALGRE SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, GAMANE CONSERVE ENCORE
UNE INTENSITE ASSEZ FORTE MAIS DEVRAIT EN TOUTE LOGIQUE S'AFFAIBLIR
RAPIDEMENT AU COURS DES 6 A 12H A VENIR, JUSQU'A SON EVENTUELLE
RESSORTIE EN MER EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. DANS L'HYPOTHESE D'UN RETOUR
EN MER (CE QUI N'EST PAS FORCEMENT GARANTI), LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN LIEN AVEC UNE STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN
CONSOLIDEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF MALGACHE, PUIS EN
RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET A DE POSSIBLES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT ENSUITE SE DELITER AU
COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 300 MM EN 24H SUR LA PROVINCE
DE DIEGO-SUAREZ (REGION D'ANTALAHA JUSQU'A SAMBAVA S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A
NOSY-BE). LOCALEMENT, LES CUMULS S'ECHELONNER MONTER ENTRE 300 ET 600
MM SUR LA REGION DE SAVA. LES FORTES PLUIES CONCERNERONT EGALEMENT LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE TAMATAVE AVEC DES CUMULS EN 24H DE L'ORDRE DE
300 A 400 MM. AU COURS DE LA PERIODE DE TRANSIT SUR TERRE, DES
CUMULS TOTAUX EXTREMES DE PLUS DE 600 - 700 MM SONT ATTENDUS
PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LE RELIEF DE DIEGO GARCIA, AINSI QUE SUR LE
LITTORAL NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE TAMATAVE. CES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS
POURRONT PROVOQUER PAR ENDROITS DES CRUES ECLAIR ET DES GLISSEMENTS
DE TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN COURS S'ATTENUANT AU COURS DE CETTE
NUIT.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES S'AMORTISSANT AU COURS DE LA NUIT LE LONG DU
LITTORAL EST DE LA PROVINCE DE DIEGO-SUAREZ. AVEC LA RESSORTIE
PROBABLE DU SYSTEME DANS LE BASSIN, UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA MER RESTE
POSSIBLE VENDREDI LOCALEMENT AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE DE TAMATAVE.
AMELIORATION ASSEZ RAPIDE ENSUITE AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME AU
LARGE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271806
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDINDG
TO 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 18 UTC:
15.4 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 240327133222
2024032712 20S GAMANE 004 01 230 05 SATL 060
T000 133S 0492E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 141S 0490E 040 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 149S 0493E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 155S 0502E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 160S 0514E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 176S 0539E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 199S 0565E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 221S 0590E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.1S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.9S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.6S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.9S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.1S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 49.1E.
27MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 991 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
2024032418 127S 527E 20
2024032500 124S 525E 20
2024032506 124S 522E 30
2024032512 124S 520E 30
2024032518 125S 516E 30
2024032600 125S 509E 35
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032606 123S 506E 50
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032612 125S 505E 55
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032618 128S 504E 70
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032700 129S 500E 85
2024032706 130S 496E 80
2024032706 130S 496E 80
2024032706 130S 496E 80
2024032712 133S 492E 55
2024032712 133S 492E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.1S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.9S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.6S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.9S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.1S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 49.1E.
27MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GAMANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 991 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/28 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/28 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/29 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

60H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2024/03/30 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/31 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2024/04/01 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GAMANE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS
OVER LAND, CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, WITH AVERAGE WINDS CURRENTLY
ESTIMATED AT 50 KT.

GUIDANCE IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, RESULTING IN A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IFS AND AROME MODELS AT 00Z, WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE EAST. A RETURN TO THE OCEAN VIA THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON FRIDAY IS STILL BEING CONSIDERED. IN THIS
CASE, MOVEMENT WOULD BE SOUTH-EASTERLY BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO THE OCEAN VIA THE
WEST COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS STAGE, BUT IS NOT THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY RSMC.

DESPITE STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY RELIEF, GAMANE IS STILL
FAIRLY INTENSE, BUT SHOULD LOGICALLY WEAKEN RAPIDLY, UNTIL IT EMERGES
OVER THE OCEAN ON FRIDAY. IN CASE OF A RETURN TO THE SEA (WHICH IS
NOT NECESSARILY GUARANTEED), THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY,
DUE TO A LESS CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE FOLLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE
MALAGASY LAND, THEN TO INCREASED NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FROM SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MM IN 24H OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA REGION EXTENDING TO NOSY-BE). DURING
THE LAND TRANSIT PERIOD, TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 400-600 MM ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN COASTAL
AREAS, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY AND INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE SAVA REGION.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS HIGH WEAKENING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SAVA
REGION THIS WEDNESDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 49.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 45 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/03/2024 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 28/03/2024 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 29/03/2024 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 29/03/2024 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 55

60H: 30/03/2024 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 30/03/2024 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2024 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 01/04/2024 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GAMANE A CONTINUE SON
AFFABILISSEMENT DU FAIT DE SON TRANSIT SUR TERRE ACTUELLEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST ENCORE CLASSE EN FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE ET L'INTENSITE DES VENTS MOYENS EST ACTUELLEMENT ESTIME A
50 KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN PREVISION, LES GUIDANCES RESTENT TOUJOURS
FORTEMENT DISPERSEES, D'OU UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
QUE CE SOIT A COURTE OU LONGUE ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE
SUR LES MODELES IFS ET AROME DE 00Z, AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT LENT DU
SYSTEME SUR TERRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD EN LONGEANT LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SITUEE A L'EST. UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR VENDREDI
RESTE ENVISAGEE. DANS CE CAS, LE MOUVEMENT SERAIT ORIENTE VERS LE
SUD-EST ENTRE UN TALWEG PASSANT AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST.
TOUTEFOIS, UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA COTE OUEST AU NORD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE N'EST PAS EXCLUE A CE STADE MAIS N'EST PAS LE SCENARIO
PRIVILEGIE PAR LE CMRS.

MALGRE UNE INTERACTION FORTE SUR LE RELIEF MALGACHE, GAMANE CONSERVE
ENCORE UNE INTENSITE ASSEZ FORTE MAIS DEVRAIT EN TOUTE LOGIQUE
S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT, JUSQU'A SON EVENTUELLE RESSORTIE SUR L'OCEAN
EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. EN CAS DE RETOUR EN MER (CE QUI N'EST PAS
FORCEMENT GARANTI), LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER PLUS LENTEMENT
EN LIEN AVEC UNE STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN CONSOLIDEE SUITE A
L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES, PUIS EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE
DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET A DE POSSIBLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 200 MM EN 24H SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE
MADAGASCAR (REGION D'ANTSIRANANA S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A NOSY-BE). AU
COURS DE LA PERIODE DE TRANSIT SUR TERRE, DES CUMULS TOTAUX DE PLUS
DE 400-600 MM SONT ATTENDUS PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LE FLANC EST DU RELIEF
ET LA ZONE LITTORALE, POUVANT PROVOQUER DES CRUES ECLAIR ET DES
GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI LE LONG DE LA COTE DE LA REGION SAVA.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES FAIBILISSANT, LE LONG DU LITTORAL DE LA
REGION SAVA CE MERCREDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271227 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDINDG
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 10
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271206
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDINDG
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/27 AT 0600 UTC:
12.9 S / 49.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/27 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/28 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/03/28 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2024/03/29 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2024/03/29 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/03/30 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/31 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2024/04/01 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

GAMANE MADE LANDFALL LAST NIGHT AT AROUND 03UTC ON THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT
80KT. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IT HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS
OVER LAND, CURRENTLY STILL HEADING WEST. AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 70 KT.

GUIDANCE IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, RESULTING IN A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IFS AND AROME MODELS AT 00Z, WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE EAST. A RETURN TO THE OCEAN VIA THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON FRIDAY IS BEING CONSIDERED. IN THIS CASE,
MOVEMENT WOULD BE SOUTH-EASTERLY BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO THE OCEAN VIA THE WEST
COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS STAGE, BUT IS NOT THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY RSMC.

WITH A STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY RELIEF, GAMANE SHOULD
LOGICALLY WEAKEN RAPIDLY, UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL EMERGENCE INTO THE OCEAN
ON FRIDAY. SHOULD IT RETURN TO THE SEA (WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY
GUARANTEED), THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY, DUE TO A LESS
CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE FOLLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LAND,
THEN TO INCREASED NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR FROM SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- LANDFALL THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 03UTC OVER THE SAVA REGION
(DIEGO SUAREZ PROVINCE), NORTH OF VOHEMAR.
- RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MM IN 24 HOURS IN COASTAL AREAS
OF DIEGO SUAREZ AND TAMATAVE PROVINCES. MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND IN THE HIGHLANDS (300-500MM
IN 24H). DURING THE TRANSIT PERIOD ON LAND, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
OVER 400-600MM ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RELIEF AND IN COASTAL AREAS, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY AND INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SAVA COAST. NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA,
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY UNTIL LATE MORNING.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES ALONG THE COAST OF THE SAVA REGION THIS
WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY 6 TO 9 METRES CLOSE TO THE POINT OF IMPACT,
NOTABLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, ACCOMPANIED BY A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF 1 METRE GENERATING SUBMERSIONS ON THE COAST.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/03/2024 :
12.9 S / 49.7 E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2024 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 28/03/2024 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 28/03/2024 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 29/03/2024 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 29/03/2024 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 30/03/2024 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2024 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 01/04/2024 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

GAMANE A ATTERRI CETTE NUIT VERS 03UTC SUR LA COTE NORD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A
80KT. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, IL AMORCE UNE PHASE
D'AFFABILISSEMENT DU FAIT DE SON TRANSIT SUR TERRE ACTUELLEMENT
ENCORE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST. L'INTENSITE DES VENTS MOYENS EST
ACTUELLEMENT ESTIME A 70 KT.

LES GUIDANCES RESTENT ENCORE FORTEMENT DISPERSEES, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE QUE CE SOIT A COURTE OU LONGUE
ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR LES MODELES IFS ET AROME DE
00Z, AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD EN LONGEANT LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AL 'EST. UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA
COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR VENDREDI EST ENVISAGEE. DANS CE CAS, LE
MOUVEMENT SERAIT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRE UN TALWEG PASSANT AU
SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST. TOUTEFOIS, UNE RESSORTIE PAR LA COTE
OUEST AU NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE N'EST PAS EXCLUE A CE STADE MAIS
N'EST PAS LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE PAR LE CMRS.

AVEC UNE INTERACTION FORTE SUR LE RELIEF MALGACHE, GAMANE DEVRAIT EN
TOUTE LOGIQUE S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT, JUSQU'A SON EVENTUELLE
RESSORTIE SUR L'OCEAN EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. EN CAS DE RETOUR EN MER
(CE QUI N'EST PAS FORCEMENT GARANTI), LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER PLUS LENTEMENT EN LIEN AVEC UNE STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN
CONSOLIDEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES, PUIS EN
RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET A DE POSSIBLES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR ET DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- ATTERRISSAGE CE MERCREDI MATIN VERS 03UTC SUR LA REGION SAVA
(PROVINCE DE DIEGO SUAREZ), AU NORD DE VOHEMAR.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 200 MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
LITTORALES DES PROVINCES DE DIEGO SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE. DES CUMULS
BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT PREVUS PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
ET SUR LE RELIEF (300-500MM EN 24H). AU COURS DE LA PERIODE DE
TRANSIT SUR TERRE, DES CUMULS TOTAUX DE PLUS DE 400-600 MM SONT
ATTENDUS PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LE FLANC EST DU RELIEF ET LA ZONE
LITTORALE, POUVANT PROVOQUER DES CRUES ECLAIR ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE
TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI LE LONG DE LA COTE DE LA REGION SAVA. PRES DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE, VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN EN COURS ET JUSQU'EN FIN
DE MATINEE.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES LE LONG DU LITTORAL DE LA REGION SAVA CE
MERCREDI, LOCALEMENT 6 A 9 METRES PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT, NOTAMMENT
DU COTE SUD DU CYCLONE, ACCOMPAGNEES D'UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE D'1 METRE
GENERANT DES SUBMERSIONS SUR LE LITTORAL.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270617
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GAMANE) 975 HPA
POSITION: 12.9 S / 49.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDINDG
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 06 UTC:
14.6 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 50.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/27 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/03/28 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/03/28 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/29 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95

72H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/31 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 85

120H: 2024/04/01 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GAMANE TRACKED MUCH FURTHER WEST-SOUTH-WEST
THAN FORECAST, BRINGING IT NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR:
THE WESTERN EYEWALL AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY HITTING THE
SHORE AT 00UTC. AFTER A PERIOD OF HESITATION, ITS EYE PATTERN HAS
CLEARED OUT SINCE 23UTC. THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2139Z
CONFIRMS A FAIRLY ROBUST INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS RISES
TO 5.0 AND THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT.

IN THE SHORT TERM, GAMANE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SPREAD IS STILL VERY LARGE, RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK FORECAST. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE BEST INITIAL FIT, PARTICULARLY IFS AND
AROME 12Z RUNS, WHICH SUGGEST A LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY, A BIT EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE SCENARIO OF A SYSTEM EXITING BACK OVER
THE OCEAN REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN THIS CASE, MOVEMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH-EASTWARD BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH-EAST.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROCHES MALAGASY COAST, INTENSIFICATION COULD
SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN UNTIL LANDFALL, LIKELY AT THE TOP OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE OR NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. STRONG
INTERACTION WITH MALAGASY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SHOULD THEN MAKE IT
WEAKEN RAPIDLY FROM TONIGHT, UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL EXIT OUT INTO THE
OCEAN ON FRIDAY. SHOULD IT RETURN TO SEA (WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY
GUARANTEED), THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY, DUE TO A LESS
CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE FOLLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY
LANDMASS, AND THEN DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE
DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06UTC OVER SAVA REGION
(ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE), NORTH OF VOHEMAR.
- RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ON
ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA PROVINCES COASTAL AREAS. MUCH HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS (300-500MM IN 24HRS). OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 400-600 MM ARE EXPECTED, WHICH COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
- GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SAVA REGION EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
EVENING. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS ALONG THE COAST OF SAVA REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
LOCALLY UP TO 6-9 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270046
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 50.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2024 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 28/03/2024 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 28/03/2024 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 29/03/2024 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 29/03/2024 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 95

72H: 30/03/2024 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/03/2024 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 85

120H: 01/04/2024 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GAMANE A SUIVI UNE TRAJECTOIRE
BEAUCOUP PLUS VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUE PREVU, CE QUI LE RAPPROCHE
MAINTENANT TRES PRES DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR : LE MUR DE L'OEIL
OCCIDENTAL ET LES VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN TOUCHENT DONC DEJA LE
LITTORAL A 00UTC. APRES UNE PERIODE D'HESITATION, LA CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL S'EST ENSUITE AMELIOREE DEPUIS 23UTC. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2
DE 2139Z CONFIRME UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE ENCORE ASSEZ ROBUSTE.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE MONTE A 5.0 ET L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A
80 KT.

A COURT TERME, GAMANE DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SITUEE A L'EST. LES GUIDANCES RESTENT ENCORE FORTEMENT DISPERSEES,
D'OU UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. LA PREVISION CMRS EST
BASEE SUR LES MODELES LES MIEUX CALES A L'ETAT INITIAL, EN
PARTICULIER IFS ET AROME DE 12Z, QUI SUGGERENT UN ATTERRISSAGE CE
MERCREDI, AVEC UNE CHRONOLOGIE ENCORE ACCELEREE PAR RAPPORT AUX
PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. LE SCENARIO DE RESSORTIE DU MINIMUM RESTE
TRES INCERTAIN. DANS CE CAS, LE MOUVEMENT SERAIT ORIENTE VERS LE
SUD-EST ENTRE UN TALWEG PASSANT AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST.

LA PROXIMITE DES TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIT PLUS OU MOINS RALENTIR
L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, PROBABLEMENT DANS LE HAUT
DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU PROCHE DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. AVEC UNE INTERACTION FORTE SUR LE RELIEF MALGACHE, GAMANE
DEVRAIT EN TOUTE LOGIQUE S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI
SOIR, JUSQU'A SON EVENTUELLE RESSORTIE DANS L'OCEAN EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI. EN CAS DE RETOUR EN MER (CE QUI N'EST PAS FORCEMENT
GARANTI), LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER PLUS LENTEMENT EN LIEN
AVEC UNE STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN CONSOLIDEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION AVEC
LES TERRES MALGACHES, PUIS EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET A DE POSSIBLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC A PARTIR DE SAMEDI
SOIR ET DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU CE MERCREDI MATIN UN PEU AVANT 06UTC SUR LA
REGION SAVA (PROVINCE DE DIEGO SUAREZ), AU NORD DE VOHEMAR.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 200 MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
LITTORALES DES PROVINCES DE DIEGO SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE. DES CUMULS
BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT PREVUS PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
ET SUR LE RELIEF (300-500MM EN 24H). AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, DES
CUMULS TOTAUX DE PLUS DE 400-600 MM SONT ATTENDUS, POUVANT PROVOQUER
DES CRUES ECLAIR ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI LE LONG DE LA COTE DE LA REGION SAVA. PRES DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE, VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN EN COURS ET JUSQU'EN
DEBUT D'APRES-MIDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES LE LONG DU LITTORAL DE LA REGION SAVA CE
MERCREDI, LOCALEMENT 6 A 9 METRES PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT, NOTAMMENT
DU COTE SUD DU CYCLONE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270022
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 27/03/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GAMANE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 50.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261854
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 50.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/27 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2024/03/27 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/03/28 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2024/03/28 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2024/03/29 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/03/29 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/30 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2024/03/31 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

GAMANE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND HAS REACHED TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS HAD AN
INTERMITTENT EYE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY, SOMETIMES DISRUPTED BY
POWERFUL CONVECTION BURSTS IN THE EYEWALL. THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM (RMW ESTIMATED AT 9 MN) LEADS TO AN UNDERESTIMATION OF
INTENSITY BY CIMSS IR-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 70 KT, BASED BOTH ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GIVING A DT OF
4.5+, AND ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A SOLID 89GHZ RING PARTIALLY
OPEN (SSMIS-F17 1506Z). A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS THE
PRESENCE OF WINDS OF AT LEAST 70KT.

IN THE SHORT TERM, GAMANE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS
THE COAST OF ANTISRANANA PROVINCE (MADAGASCAR), UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN GUIDANCE IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, RESULTING
IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK FORECAST. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE BEST INITIAL FIT,
PARTICULARLY IFS AND AROME, WHICH SUGGEST A LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY, A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE SCENARIO OF A SYSTEM
EXITING BACK OVER THE OCEAN REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN THIS CASE,
MOVEMENT WOULD BE SOUTH-EASTWARD BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. GAMANE SHOULD THUS APPROACH THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR POSSIBLY NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. WITH A
STRONG INTERACTION WITH MALAGASY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, GAMANE SHOULD
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY, UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL EXIT INTO THE OCEAN ON
FRIDAY. SHOULD IT RETURN TO SEA (WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY
GUARANTEED), THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY, DUE TO A LESS
CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE FOLLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY
LANDMASS, AND THEN DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE
DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- LANDFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BEFORE 12UTC OVER SAVA REGION
(ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE), NORTH OF SAMBAVA, NEAR VOHEMAR.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED
ON ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA PROVINCE COASTAL AREAS. MUCH HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS (300-400MM IN
24HRS). OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN
400-500 MM ARE EXPECTED, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SAVA REGION IN THE
COMING HOURS AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS ALONG THE COAST OF SAVA REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
LOCALLY UP TO 6-9 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261854
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 50.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2024 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 27/03/2024 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 28/03/2024 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 28/03/2024 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 29/03/2024 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 29/03/2024 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2024 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 31/03/2024 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

GAMANE POURSUIT SON INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE ET A ATTEINT LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A EU
UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL INTERMITTENTE EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE,
PARFOIS PERTURBEE PAR DE PUISSANTS BURSTS DE CONVECTION DANS LE MUR
DE L'OEIL. LA TRES PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME (RVM ESTIME A 9 MN)
CONDUIT A UNE SOUS-ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE PAR LES GUIDANCES
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS BASEES SUR L'IR. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 70 KT,
BASEE A LA FOIS SUR UNE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DONNANT UN DT DE 4.5+,
AINSI QUE SUR L'APPARENCE EN IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES AVEC UN SOLIDE
ANNEAU EN 89GHZ PARTIELLEMENT OUVERT (SSMIS-F17 1506Z). UNE PASSE
ASCAT PARTIELLE CONFIRME AUSSI LA PRESENCE DE VENTS D'AU MOINS 70KT.

A COURT TERME, GAMANE DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DES CA TES DE LA PROVINCE DE DIEGO SUAREZ
(MADAGASCAR), SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SITUEE IMMEDIATEMENT A L'EST DU METEORE. LES GUIDANCES EUROPEENNES ET
AMERICAINES RESTENT ENCORE FORTEMENT DISPERSEES, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR LES
MODELES LES MIEUX CALES A L'ETAT INITIAL, EN PARTICULIER IFS ET
AROME, QUI SUGGERENT UN ATTERRISSAGE MERCREDI, AVEC UNE CHRONOLOGIE
LEGEREMENT ACCELEREE PAR RAPPORT AUX PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. LE
SCENARIO DE RESSORTIE DU MINIMUM RESTE TRES INCERTAIN. DANS CE CAS,
LE MOUVEMENT SERAIT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST ENTRE UN TALWEG PASSANT
AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE
D'UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE. GAMANE DEVRAIT
AINSI ABORDER LA COTE DE MADAGASCAR POSSIBLEMENT PROCHE DU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UNE INTERACTION FORTE SUR LE RELIEF
MALGACHE, GAMANE DEVRAIT EN TOUTE LOGIQUE S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT,
JUSQU'A SON EVENTUELLE RESSORTIE DANS L'OCEAN EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
EN CAS DE RETOUR EN MER (CE QUI N'EST PAS FORCEMENT GARANTI), LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER PLUS LENTEMENT EN LIEN AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN CONSOLIDEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES
MALGACHES, PUIS EN RAISON DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST
ET A DE POSSIBLES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- ATTERRISSAGE ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI UN PEU AVANT 12UTC SUR
LA REGION SAVA (PROVINCE DE DIEGO SUAREZ), AU NORD DE SAMBAVA, PRES
DE VOHEMAR.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 200 MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
LITTORALES DES PROVINCES DE DIEGO SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE. DES CUMULS
BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT PREVUS SUR LE RELIEF (300-400MM EN
24H). AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H, DES CUMULS TOTAUX DE PLUS DE
400-500 MM SONT ATTENDUS, POUVANT PROVOQUER DES CRUES ECLAIR ET DES
GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE CETTE FIN DE NUIT DE MARDI
A MERCREDI ET JUSQU'A LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI LE LONG DE LA COTE
DE LA REGION SAVA. PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE, VENTS DE FORCE
OURAGAN ENTRE MERCREDI MATIN ET LA FIN D'APRES-MIDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES LE LONG DU LITTORAL DE LA REGION SAVA
MERCREDI, LOCALEMENT 6 A 9 METRES PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT NOTAMMENT DU
COTE SUD DU CYCLONE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GAMANE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 50.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 280 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
13.3 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 18 UTC:
13.9 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 50.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 50 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/27 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2024/03/27 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2024/03/28 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/03/28 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/03/29 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/30 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

120H: 2024/03/31 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GAMANE SEEMS TO HAVE TURNED BACK.
FOR ALL THAT, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, WITH CLOUD
TOPS GRADUALLY SPREADING AND COOLING, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 08 AND
11UTC
(PEAK TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -83AOC), WHERE AN EYE CAN EVEN BE SEEN
TEMPORARILY ON VISIBLE HR IMAGES. THIS VISUAL ASPECT SHOWS OBJECTIVE
SIGNS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY THE 0655Z GMI MICROWAVE
SWATH SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED CONVECTIVE CORE, BOTH AT 37 GHZ AND 85
GHZ. ALSO ON THIS SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
60KT, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST US OBJECTIVE DATA AND THE
SUBJECTIVE PGTW ESTIMATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM, GAMANE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE COAST OF DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE
(MADAGASCAR), UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE
LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE METEORE. EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DISPERSED. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE, BUT THE CONTINUING HIGH DISPERSION OF THE MODELS MEANS
THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK AND HENCE THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST IFS AND AROME RUNS SUGGEST A
LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF DIEGO-SUAREZ TOMORROW, WEDNESDAY, WITH
A PROBABLE EXIT OVER THE BASIN ON FRIDAY EVENING, IN CONTRAST TO THE
AMERICAN DETERMINIST MODELS, WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE OFF THE MADAGASCAN COAST TOWARDS THE GREATER MASCARENE
ISLANDS, ACCELERATING AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. GAMANE SHOULD THUS APPROACH THE EAST
COAST OF DIEGO-GARCIA PROVINCE AT THE PROBABLE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH A STRONG
INTERACTION OVER THE MALAGASY RELIEF, GAMANE SHOULD LOGICALLY WEAKEN
RAPIDLY, UNTIL IT EVENTUALLY EXITS THE BASIN ON FRIDAY. BACK OUT TO
SEA, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY, WITH A POTENTIAL
FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MALAGASY LANDMASS. OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, THE INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR COULD HAVE MORE OR LESS OF AN IMPACT,
LEADING TO AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE RSMC FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME
BEING, BUT WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING HOURS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- WITH A LANDING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SHARPLY OVER THE PROVINCES OF DIEGO-SUAREZ
AND TAMATAVE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE DIEGO-SUAREZ AND TAMATAVE COASTS. MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS (300-400MM IN 24HRS). OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 400/500 MM ARE EXPECTED,
WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE
ON WEDNESDAY AT LANDFALL. STORM FORCE WINDS STILL LIKELY AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- WAVES OF 4 METERS ALONG THE COAST OF DIEGO SUAREZ PROVINCE UNTIL
FRIDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/9/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 50.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 50 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/03/2024 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 27/03/2024 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 28/03/2024 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 28/03/2024 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 29/03/2024 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 29/03/2024 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2024 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

120H: 31/03/2024 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GAMANE A SEMBLE T-IL REBROUSSE
CHEMIN , LE FAISANT FAIRE QUASIMENT DU SUR PLACE. POUR AUTANT, LA
STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME S'EST EMBELLIE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
QUI SE SONT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETENDUS ET REFROIDIS, NOTAMMENT ENTRE 08
ET 11UTC
(TEMPERATURES SOMMITALES DE L'ORDRE DE -83AOC), OU L'ON PEUT MEME
VOIR TEMPORAIREMENT UN A IL SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES HR. CET ASPECT
VISUEL PRESENTE DES SIGNES OBJECTIFS D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE,
SUPPORTE PAR LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE DE LA GMI DE 0655Z MONTRANT UN CA UR
CONVECTIF CONSOLIDE, AUSSI BIEN EN 37 GHZ QU'EN 85 GHZ. AUSSI SUR
CETTE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE, L'INTENSITA EST PORTEE A 60KT, CE QUI EST
LEGEREMENT AU DESSUS DES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES ET
DE L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE DU PGTW.

A COURT TERME, GAMANE DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION DU
SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DES CA TES DE LA PROVINCES DE
DIEGO-SUAREZ (MADAGASCAR), SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DOSALE DE
BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE IMMEDIATEMENT A L'EST DU METEORE.
LES GUIDANCES EUROPEENNES ET AMERICAINES RESTENT ENCORE FORTEMENT
DISPERSEES. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS MAIS LE
MAINTIEN DE LA FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES INDUIT UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DONC L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. LES
DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET D'AROME PROPOSENT UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA
PROVINCE DE DIEGO-SUAREZ DA S DEMAIN MERCREDI AVEC UNE RESSORTIE
PROBABLE SUR LE BASSIN VENDREDI SOIR, CONTRAIREMENT AUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES AMERICAINS QUI PROPOSENT UNE POURSUITE DU SYSTEME AU
LARGE DE LA COTE MALGACHE, EN DIRECTION DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES TOUT
EN ACCELERANT, EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST ET
LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE, JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN JOURNA E DE
MERCREDI. GAMANE DEVRAIT AINSI ABORDER LA COTE EST DE LA PROVINCE DE
DIEGO-GARCIA AU STADE PROBABLE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UNE INTERACTION FORTE SUR LE RELIEF MALGACHE,
GAMANE DEVRAIT EN TOUTE LOGIQUE S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT, JUSQU'A SON
EVENTUELLE RESSORTIE DANS LE BASSIN EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. DE RETOUR
EN MER, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER PLUS LENTEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
UNE POTENTIELLE FLUCTUATION D'INTENSITE POSSIBLE PAR INTERACTION AVEC
LA PROXIMITE DES TERRES MALGACHES. AU COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN, LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT ETRE PLUS OU MOINS
IMPACTANT, CONDUISANT A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
LENT DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION DU CMRS RESTE POUR LE MOMENT SUR CE
SCENARIO MAIS SERA AFFINE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, UNE FORTE
DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE SUR LES
PROVINCES DE DIEGO-SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE.
- DES CUMULS DE PLUIES ENTRE 100 ET 200 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES SUR
LES LITTORAUX DE DIEGO-SUAREZ ET DE TAMATAVE. DES CUMULS BEAUCOUP
PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT POSSIBLES SUR LE RELIEF (300-400MM EN 24H). AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H, DES CUMULS TOTAUX DE PLUS DE 400/500 MM
SONT ATTENDUS, POUVANT PROVOQUER DES CRUES ECLAIRS ET DES GLISSEMENTS
DE TERRAIN.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT ATTENDUS LE LONG DE LA COTE DE LA
PROVINCE DE DIEGO-SUAREZ MERCREDI LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE. DES VENTS
DE FORCE TEMPETE RESTENT PROBABLES ET DES VENT DE FORCE OURAGAN
POSSIBLES.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES LE LONG DU LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE DIEGO
SUAREZ JUSQU'A VENDREDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261204
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 50.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 235 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
13.1 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
13.5 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260704
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 50.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/26 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/27 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2024/03/27 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2024/03/28 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2024/03/28 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2024/03/29 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/03/30 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

120H: 2024/03/31 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS PULSED WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT
HAVE COOLED WELL AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THIS MORNING'S
SUCCESSION OF SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES, CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM'S POSITION,
SHOW A WELL-CONSTITUTED MID-TROPOSPHERE EYE, JUST A STONE'S THROW
FROM THE EAST COAST OF DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE. IN A CONTEXT OF WEAK
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC WATERS, THE SYSTEM
HAS THUS REACHED THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND HAS BEEN
NAMED GAMANE BY THE MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. THE INTENSITY
OF THE STORM HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50KT, BASED ESSENTIALLY ON THE
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATION OF SATELLITE DATA, MEANWHILE CONFIRMED BY THE
ASCAT-C PASS OF 0523Z, (AVAILABLE AFTER THE NETWORK).

IN THE SHORT TERM, GAMANE IS SET TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE COAST OF DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE
(MADAGASCAR), UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF METEORE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT
THAT, OVER THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, THE GUIDANCE WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DISPERSED. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT THE CURRENT HIGH DISPERSION OF NUMERICAL
MODELS MEANS THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK
AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST IFS AND AROME
RUNS SUGGEST AN EARLY LANDING OVER THE PROVINCE OF DIEGO-SUAREZ FROM
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, WITH AN EXIT OVER THE BASIN ON FRIDAY EVENING, IN
CONTRAST TO THE AMERICAN DETERMINIST MODELS, WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE GREATER MASCAREIGNES, ACCELERATING
AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW
WEDNESDAY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, UP TO THE PROBABLE STAGE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. INDEED, OVERALL
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. IN THIS CONTEXT, IN THE SHORT TERM, IT IS HIGHLY
LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AND
REACH THE CYCLONE STAGE NEXT NIGHT. BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DELICATE, AS IT WILL BE CLOSELY DEPENDENT
ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF DIEGO-SUAREZ. THE SECOND
OPTION, REFLECTED IN THE PRESENT FORECAST, IS BASED ON A CORE
REMAINING AT SEA OFF THE COAST, SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE MID-WEEK IN
RELATION TO A POSSIBLE FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE MALAGASY LANDMASS, OR IN THE EVENT OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE
FOR THE EYEWALL. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ACCORDING TO THE AMERICAN
HYPOTHESIS, THE INCREASE IN NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR COULD BE MORE OR
LESS IMPACTFUL, LEADING TO AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND A SLOW
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CMRS FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING
HOURS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR:
- IN THE EVENT THAT THE HEART OF THE METEOR REMAINS AT SEA, WITH A
CLOSE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED:
RAINFALL TOTALS > 400 MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DIEGO-SUAREZ
COAST. MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
(500-600MM IN 24H). WITH THE METEOR MOVING SOUTHWARDS, THE HEAVY
RAINS ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY, BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 300-600
MM TO THE PROVINCE OF TAMATAVE. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE
LANDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODS.
- STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF DIEGO-SUAREZ PROVINCE
BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- 4 METRE WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF DIEGO SUAREZ PROVINCE UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260704
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/03/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 50.7 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/03/2024 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 27/03/2024 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 27/03/2024 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 28/03/2024 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 28/03/2024 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

72H: 29/03/2024 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/03/2024 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

120H: 31/03/2024 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A PULSE AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT BIEN REFROIDIS AUTOUR DU CENTRE NUAGEUX
DE BASSES COUCHES. LA SUCCESSION DES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE CE
MATIN, A L'APLOMB DE LA POSITION DU SYSTEME PRESENTENT UN OEIL DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE BIEN CONSTITUE, A QUELQUES ENCABLURES DE LA COTE
EST DE LA PROVINCE DE DIEGO-SUAREZ. DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET SUR DES EAUX PARTICULIEREMENT ENERGETIQUES,
LE SYSTEME A DONC ATTEINT LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET A
DONC ETE BAPTISE DU NOM DE GAMANE, PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE
MADAGASCAR. L'INTENSITE DU METEORE EST PORTEE A 50KT, BASEE
ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE DES DONNEES
SATELLITAIRES, ENTRE-TEMPS CONFIRMEE PAR LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 0523Z,
(DISPONIBLE APRES LE RESEAU).

A COURT TERME, GAMANE DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION DU
SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DES CA TES DE LA PROVINCES DE
DIEGO-SUAREZ (MADAGASCAR), SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DOSALE DE
BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE IMMEDIALEMENT A L'EST DU METEORE. IL
EST IMPORTANT DE PRECISER QU'AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24/48 HEURES,
LES GUIDANCES RESTENT ENCORE FORTEMENT DISPERSEES. LA PREVISION CMRS
EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
MAIS LA FORTE DISPERSION ACTUELLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES INDUIT UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE ET DONC L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME.
LES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET D'AROME PROPOSENT UN ATTERRISSAGE PRECOCE
SUR LA PROVINCE DE DIEGO-SUAREZ DA S DEMAIN MERCREDI AVEC UNE
RESSORTIE SUR LE BASSIN VENDREDI SOIR, CONTRAIREMENT AUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES AMERICAINS QUI PROPOSENT UNE POURSUITE DU SYSTEME EN
DIRECTION DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES TOUT EN ACCELERANT, EN LIEN AVEC
L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST ET LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A
DEMAIN MERCREDI A UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE, JUSQU'AU STADE PROBABLE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. EN EFFET, LE
CISAILLEMENT RESTE FAIBLE DANS L'ENSEMBLE ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE ET D'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, A
COURT TERME, LA POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION EN JOURNA E JUSQU'AU
STADE DE CYCLONE LA NUIT PROCHAINE EST FORT PROBABLE. AU-DELA DES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE CAR
ELLE SERA ETROITEMENT DEPENDANTE D'UN EVENTUEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA
PROVINCE DE DIEGO-SUAREZ. SUR CETTE OPTION, UN FORT AFFAIBLISSEMENT
(TEMPORAIRE ?) SERAIT ATTENDU. LA SECONDE OPTION, REFLETEE PAR LA
PRESENTE PREVISION, TABLE SUR UN COEUR RESTANT EN MER AU LARGE DES
COTES, ACCUSANT UNE LEGERE BAISSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC
UNE POTENTIELLE FLUCTUATION D'INTENSITE POSSIBLE PAR INTERACTION AVEC
LES TERRES MALGACHES OU BIEN EN CAS DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, SELON L'HYPOTHESE AMERICAINE, LA HAUSSE
DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT ETRE PLUS OU MOINS IMPACTANT
CONDUISANT A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU
SYSTEME. LA PREVISION DU CMRS RESTE POUR LE MOMENT SUR CE SCENARIO
MAIS SERA AFFINE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MADAGASCAR :
- DANS LE OU CAS DU COEUR DU METEORE RESTE EN MER, AVEC UN PASSAGE AU
PLUS PRES MERCREDI/JEUDI, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES:
DES CUMULS DE PLUIES > 400 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES SUR LE LITTORAL
DE DIEGO-SUAREZ. DES CUMULS BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT POSSIBLES
SUR LE RELIEF (500-600MM EN 24H). AVEC L'EVOLUTION DU METEORE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD, LES FORTES PLUIES SE DECALENT LENTEMENT ET
OCCASIONNENT DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 300-600 MM SUR LA PROVINCE DE
TAMATAVE. CES FORTES PLUIES POURRONT OCCASIONER DES GLISSEMENTS DE
TERRAIN ET DES CRUES ECLAIRS.
- PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE LE LONG DE LA COTE DE LA PROVINCE
DE DIEGO-SUAREZ ENTRE MARDI SOIR ET JEUDI MATIN. VENT DE FORCE
OURAGAN POSSIBLE MERCREDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES LE LONG DU LITTORAL DE LA PROVINCE DE DIEGO
SUAREZ JUSQU'A AU MOINS JEUDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260622
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAMANE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 50.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/03/26 AT 18 UTC:
12.8 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/03/27 AT 06 UTC:
13.6 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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