Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELEANOR-24
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.4S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 57.6E.
24FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 545 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 85

24H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2024/02/26 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2024/02/26 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FATE OF ELEANOR OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT ONLY WEAK BUT ALSO CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, QUITE FAR FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, SO THAT THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE IN THIS CONTEXT IS NO LONGER RELEVANT. IN TERMS OF
MOVEMENT, THE METEOR APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARDS, BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. ELEANOR CONTINUES TO ENDURE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT ARE DETRIMENTAL TO ITS INTEGRITY, DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER WEST. THE
RESULT IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 18KT FROM THE
WEST-NORTH-WEST, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA, WHICH NOT ONLY
CONVEYS A LOT OF DRY AIR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER, BUT ALSO
TILTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY. GIVEN THESE OBJECTIVE
CONDITIONS, RECENT MODEL ANALYSES, AND OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES, ELEANOR IS TEMPORARILY KEPT AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE FOR 35 KT, AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO PERSIST IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS ESTIMATE IS CORROBORATED IN THE
MEANTIME BY THE ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH FELL SHORTLY AFTER THE ANALYSIS
TIME.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ELEANOR HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN WESTWARDS, AND WILL CURVE FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOMORROW, DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE METEOR SHOULD
THEN PASS RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND, HEADING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, IN LINE WITH ITS
RESIDUAL STRUCTURE, ELEANOR WILL MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE MADAGASCAN COAST, DISAPPEARING CLOSE TO ITS BIRTH ZONE ALMOST 10
DAYS LATER.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TOTALLY HOSTILE FOR ELEANOR: A
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND, ABOVE ALL, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR THAT
HAVE REACHED THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING
TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF ELEANOR. STRONG WINDS MAY PERSIST IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, SO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, ELEANOR WILL EVOLVE INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN
TRANSITING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AS A REMNANT LOW. ELEANOR'S CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY MONDAY, WITH NO RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 58.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 545 SO: 350 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 205 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 85

24H: 24/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 0

36H: 25/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 25/02/2024 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

60H: 26/02/2024 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

72H: 26/02/2024 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT


TRES PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LE SORT DE ELEANOR AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST NON SEULEMENT FAIBLE MAIS
AUSSI CIRCONSCRITE AU QUADRANT SUD-EST, ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES, DE SORTE QUE L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DANS CE CONTEXTE
N'EST PLUS PERTINENTE. EN TERMES DE DEPLACEMENT, LE METEORE SEMBLE
AVOIR DES VELLEITES A SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST, SI L'ON SE BASE SUR
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATLLITAIRES. ELEANOR CONTINUE D'ENDURER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DELETERES POUR SON INTEGRITE, EN RAISON
DE SON INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUE PLUS A
L'OUEST. IL EN RESULTE AINS UN FORT CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE
L'ORDRE DE 18KT DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST SELON LES DERNIERES
DONNEES DU CIMSS, QUI ADVECTE NON SEULEMENT BEAUCOUP D'AIR SEC
AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES, MAIS TILTE EGALEMENT
LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME SUR LA VERTICALE. AU VU DE CES CONDITIONS
OBJECTIVES, DES ANALYSES MODELES RECENTES, ET DES ESTIMATIONS
D'ANALYSES OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES, ELEANOR EST TEMPORAIREMENT GARDEE
AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE POUR 35 KT, CAR IL EST FORT
PROBABLE QUE DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PERSISTENT ENCORE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CETTE ESTIMATION EST CORROBOREE ENTRE-TEMPS PAR
LA PASSE DE L'ASCAT-B, TOMBEE PEU APRES LE RESEAU.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36 HEURES. ELEANOR A D'ORES ET DEJA ENTAME SON VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DE L'OUEST ET VA S'INCURVER DEMAIN DAVANTAGE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, DIRIGE PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSES COUCHES EN
BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE METEORE DEVRAIT ALORS
TRANSITER RAPIDEMENT AU SUD DE LA REUNION CE WEEK-END EN SE DIRIGEANT
VERS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR. PAR LA SUITE, EN LIEN AVEC SA
STRUCTURE RESIDUELLE, ELEANOR VA SE FONDRE DANS UN TALWEG DE BASSES
COUCHES AU LARGE DES COTES MALGACHES ET DISPARAITRE A PROXIMITE DE SA
ZONE DE NAISSANCE PRES DE 10 JOURS PLUS TARD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOTALEMENT HOSTILES POUR
ELEANOR : UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SURTOUT DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC QUI ONT GAGNE LE COEUR DU SYSTEME PAR LE
NORD-OUEST. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ACTIVITEE CONVECTIVE DEVIENT
QUASI-INEXISTANTE CONDUISANT AINSI A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
D'ELEANOR. DES VENTS FORTS POURRONT PERSISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD
PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT ET UN LEGER MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE EST ALORS
ENCORE POSSIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6H. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN
SAMEDI, ELEANOR EVOLUERA EN DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT ET TRANSISTERA
VERS MADAGASCAR AU STADE DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LA CIRCULATION DE
ELEANOR VA FINIR PAR SE FONDRE A UN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES A
ECHEANCE DE LUNDI, SANS PRESENTER DE RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION DU
FAIT D'UN MANQUE NOTABLE D'ALIMENTATION HUMIDE.

CE SYSTEME NE GENERE PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES
INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT DISPONIBLES SUR LE
BULLETIN MARINE DE LA ZONE METAREA VII DU SMDSM, DIFFUSE PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE SUD-AFRICAIN (FQZA31 FAPR).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 231811
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/02/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALL WEATHER EXTENDING TO 340 MN IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 295 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
23.7 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR).=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.6S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.9S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 58.4E.
23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2024/02/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2024/02/26 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=NIL CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM, WITH
ELEANOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY MUCH REDUCED AND REMAINING IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS MAKES IT EASIER TO LOCATE: THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGES. ELEANOR HAS PRACTICALLY
STOPPED MOVING FOR ALMOST 3 HOURS. IN SUCH A SHEARED CONFIGURATION
AND IMPACTED BY THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM, DVORAK ANALYSIS IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE THEN
ESTIMATED BY REGULAR DECAY, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE AT 40KT. ELEANOR IS
DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, ONLY THE SHORT RANGES ARE
CHANGING SLIGHTLY. ELEANOR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS THIS FRIDAY,
BUT IS SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE LESS PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL
DIRECTING FLOW AND THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-NORTH-WEST, DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND, HEADING TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, IN LINE WITH ITS RESIDUAL
STRUCTURE, ELEANOR WILL MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
MADAGASCAN COAST, DISAPPEARING CLOSE TO ITS BIRTH ZONE ALMOST 10 DAYS
LATER.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TOTALLY HOSTILE TO ELEANOR: A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND, ABOVE ALL, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR THAT HAVE
REACHED THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING
TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF ELEANOR. STRONG WINDS MAY PERSIST IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, SO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, ELEANOR WILL EVOLVE INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN
TRANSITING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AS A REMNANT LOW. ELEANOR'S CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY MONDAY, WITH NO RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231213
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 58.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 24/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 25/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2024 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 26/02/2024 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

72H: 26/02/2024 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=NEANT CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SOMMET DES NUAGES A CONTINUE DE
SE RECHAUFFER AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE D'ELEANOR TRES REDUITE ET
RESTANT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. SA LOCALISATION EST AINSI FACILITE
: LE VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAISSANT NETTEMENT SUR LES IMAGES
VISIBLES. ELEANOR NE BOUGE QUASIMENT PLUS DEPUIS PRES DE 3 HEURES.
DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE ET GENEE PAR L'INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME, L'ANALYSE DVORAK N'EST PLUS POSSIBLE.
L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS EST ALORS FAITE PAR DECROISSANCE REGULIERE
LAISSANT AINSI UNE ESTIMATION A 40KT. ELEANOR EST DECLASSEE EN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, SEULES LES
COURTES ECHEANCES EVOLUENT UN PEU. ELEANOR CONTINUE DE SE DIRIGER
VERS LE SUD CE VENDREDI MAIS RALENTIT SOUS L'EFFET DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
EN ALTITUDE MOINS PRESENT ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 6-12H, LE SYSTEME VA PRENDRE UN VIRAGE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, DIRIGE PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSES COUCHES EN
BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. IL DEVRAIT ALORS TRANSITER
AU SUD DE LA REUNION CE WEEK-END EN SE DIRIGEANT VERS LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR. PAR LA SUITE, EN LIEN AVEC SA STRUCTURE RESIDUELLE,
ELEANOR VA SE FONDRE DANS UN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES AU LARGE DES
COTES MALGACHES ET DISPARAITRE A PROXIMITE DE SA ZONE DE NAISSANCE
PRES DE 10 JOURS PLUS TARD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOTALEMENT HOSTILES A ELEANOR :
UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SURTOUT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC QUI ONT GAGNE LE COEUR DU SYSTEME PAR LE NORD-OUEST. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, L'ACTIVITEE CONVECTIVE DEVIENT QUASI-INEXISTANTE
CONDUISANT AINSI A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE D'ELEANOR. DES
VENTS FORTS POURRONT PERSISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE
GRADIENT ET UN LEGER MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE EST ALORS ENCORE
POSSIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6H. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, ELEANOR
EVOLUERA EN DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT ET TRANSISTERA VERS MADAGASCAR AU
STADE DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LA CIRCULATION DE ELEANOR VA FINIR
PAR SE FONDRE A UN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI, SANS
PRESENTER DE RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION DU FAIT D'UN MANQUE NOTABLE
D'ALIMENTATION HUMIDE.

CE SYSTEME NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 231157
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/02/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 195 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
24.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
23.3 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 230604
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/02/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
24.1 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
23.7 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 57.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.1S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.7S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 57.4E.
23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110

24H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 3.5- CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN. AROUND
18UTC THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GOT PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CDO, THEN A NEW POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER FROM 21UTC ONWARDS, PROBABLY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RESUME
ITS SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION. MICROWAVE PASSES AMSR2 2058Z AND
SSMIS-F18 2318Z SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL CORE IS BECOMMING BROADER AND
OPEN ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE, DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND THE SYSTEM'S INERTIA LEAD US TO KEEP INTENSITY AT
55KT, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THIS INTENSITY REMAINS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BUT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AIDT AND DPRINT CIMSS ESTIMATES.

ELEANOR SHOULD KEEP ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MIDDAY,
BETWEEN A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. ITS WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN THEN TURN
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF
REUNION ISLAND THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING OFF THE MALAGASY
COAST.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND LEADING TO DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL WON'T
HELP EITHER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE RAPID WEAKENING ALTHOUGH SOME
GALES COULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND TO REMNANT CONVECTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT WILL
ONLY BE A WEAK REMNANT VORTEX.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 58.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2024 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 110

24H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 0

36H: 24/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 0

60H: 25/02/2024 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ELEANOR EST RESTEE EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE. VERS 18UTC, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES A ETE
PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE EN BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION, PUIS UN
NOUVEAU PUISSANT BURST ORAGEUX S'EST DEVELOPPE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE
A PARTIR DE 21UTC, PROVOQUANT PROBABLEMENT UNE NOUVELLE ACCELERATION
TEMPORAIRE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 2058Z
ET SSMIS-F18 2318Z MONTRENT UN COEUR CENTRAL DEVENU PLUS LARGE ET
OUVERT DU COTE NORD, CONSEQUENCES DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA
PRESENCE D'UNE TRES FORTE CONVECTION DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
L'INERTIE DU SYSTEME INCITENT A MAINTENIR L'INTENSITE A 55KT AVEC DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION. CETTE INTENSITE
RESTE AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE MAIS EN BON ACCORD
AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS AIDT ET DPRINT DU CIMSS.

ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD CE VENDREDI JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE,
ENTRE UN TALWEG S'APPROCHANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE A L'EST.
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONDUIRE A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT PUIS A UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, DIRIGE PAR LE
FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSES COUCHES EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. IL DEVRAIT ALORS TRANSITER AU SUD DE LA REUNION CE
WEEK-END AVANT DE SE DISSIPER A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG SUBTROPICAL,
OCCASIONNANT UNE ASYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME ET DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC PAR LE NORD-OUEST. A CELA S'AJOUTE UNE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. CELA DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
D'ELEANOR, MEME SI DES VENTS FORTS POURRONT PERSISTER DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT ET SOUS LA CONVECTION
RESIDUELLE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL NE S'AGIRA DONC PLUS QUE D'UN
INOFFENSIF VORTEX RESIDUEL.

CE SYSTEME NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 230014
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/02/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
24.1 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
24.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 58.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65

36H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS MAINTAINED VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, FIRST TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AFTER 16UTC, THE CDO PATTERN BEGAN TO DETERIORATE
SLIGHTLY, EVOLVING TOWARDS A MORE SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A QUITE
UNCERTAIN CENTER LOCATION. THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
NORTH-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE ALSO SHOWN BY THE 1545Z GPM
MICROWAVE PASS, WITH CONVECTION BEING OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A SMAP PASS AT 1431Z WAS AVAILABLE TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT, BUT INDICATES WINDS UP TO 51KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 50/55KT (10MIN WINDS
EQUIVALENT). SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
4.0 AND 3.5 OVER THE PERIOD. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 55KT AT
18UTC.

ELEANOR SHOULD KEEP ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING,
BETWEEN A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. ITS WEAKENING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE MOVEMENT
THEN A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TURN, DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, WITH
INCREASING NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF
A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND
LEADING TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DECREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL WON'T HELP EITHER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE RAPID
WEAKENING ALTHOUGH SOME GALES COULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TO REMNANT CONVECTION. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT WILL ONLY BE A WEAKENING CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT
VORTEX, WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF THE SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND BEFORE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING OFF THE MALAGASY COAST.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MAURITIUS : SEA STATE IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY, WITH MEAN WAVES NOW BELOW 4 METERS.
- REUNION : WAVES NEAR 4 M OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS, THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING ON FRIDAY.
- NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221842
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 58.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SO: 295 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 65

36H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

48H: 24/02/2024 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 0

60H: 25/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 0

72H: 25/02/2024 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ELEANOR A GARDE UNE CONVECTION TRES
INTENSE ET DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS D'ABORD A L'OUEST PUIS AU
SUD DU SYSTEME. LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE S'EST
UN PEU DEGRADEE APRES 16UTC, EVOLUANT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION PLUS
CISAILLEE, AVEC UNE POSITION DU CENTRE ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LES EFFETS
DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD A NORD-OUEST SONT AUSSI MIS EN
EVIDENCE PAR LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 1545Z MONTRANT UNE
CONVECTION DEPORTEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. UNE PASSE
SMAP A 1431Z, MAIS DISPONIBLE TROP TARD POUR ETRE PRISE EN COMPTE,
INDIQUE DES VENTS A 51KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS SONT DE L'ORDRE DE 50/55KT (EQUIVALENT VENTS
10MIN). L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A FLUCTUE ENTRE 4.0 ET 3.5 SUR LA
PERIODE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE A 55KT A 18UTC.

ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN, ENTRE UN TALWEG
S'APPROCHANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE A L'EST. SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONDUIRE A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT PUIS A UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, DIRIGE PAR LE
FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSES COUCHES EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT ALORS TRANSITER AU SUD DE
LA REUNION CE WEEK-END.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT A PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT
AVEC UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN
TALWEG SUBTROPICAL, OCCASIONNANT UNE ASYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME ET DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC PAR LE NORD-OUEST. A CELA S'AJOUTE UNE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. CELA DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE D'ELEANOR, MEME SI DES VENTS FORTS POURRONT PERSISTER DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT ET SOUS LA CONVECTION
RESIDUELLE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL S'AGIRA D'UN VORTEX RESIDUEL SANS
CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA
REUNION AVANT DE SE DISSIPER LENTEMENT AU LARGE DE MADAGASCAR.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
- ILE MAURICE : AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE, LA MER TOTALE S'AMORTIT
SOUS LES 4 METRES.
- LA REUNION : VAGUES PROCHES DE 4 M ENCORE CETTE NUIT SUR LES COTES
EST ET SUD-EST, S'AMORTISSANT VENDREDI.
- PAS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SUR MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221819
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/02/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 58.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
23.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
24.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221256
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 58.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75

36H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
HAS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS DETERMINED USING 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES
AMSR-2 FROM 1003Z AND DMSP-F18 FROM 1158Z, WHICH SHOW A VISIBLE EYE,
AS WELL AS PARTICULARLY WELL-MARKED CONVECTION TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE METEOR'S
POSITION. A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES BY
D-PRINT AND AIDT ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 55 KT.

ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GRADUALLY CURVING
NORTH-WESTWARDS. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION ON SATURDAY. THE CMRS
TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS RELEVANT MODELS.

IN A RATHER MIXED ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ALOFT, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAGNATE OVERALL OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN AND THEN
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ELEANOR. A
RESIDUAL SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ON SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING
WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- TOTAL SEAS BELOW 4 METERS, WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY.

REUNION :
- INSIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
ISLAND.
- WAVES OF 3 TO 4 M FROM THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221256
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.3 S / 58.5 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75

36H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 24/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 25/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 0

72H: 25/02/2024 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE S'EST GRADUELLEMENT RENFORCEE SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE.
LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES A PU ETRE DETERMINE GRACE AUX
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES 37 GHZ AMSR-2 DE 1003Z ET DMSP-F18 DE 1158Z QUI
PRESENTENT UN OEIL VISIBLE, AINSI QU'UNE CONVECTION PARTICULIEREMENT
BIEN MARQUA E AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, DONNANT
AINSI UNE BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA POSITION DU METEORE. UNE ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK AINSI QUE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES D-PRINT ET
AIDT PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER LES VENTS MAXIMAUX A 55 KT.

ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE
DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE CE DEPLACEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H,
EN S'INCURVANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST. EN EFFET, SUITE A
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE
DE BASSES COUCHES EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. ELLE
DEVRAIT ALORS TRANSITER AU SUD DE LA REUNION SAMEDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE
DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES PERTINENTS.

DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT MIXTE MARQUE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL MODERE EN ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME VA GLOBALEMENT
STAGNER LORS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES AVANT DE S'ATTENUER
PROGRESSIVEMENT. A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT VA NETTEMENT S'ACCENTUER EN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
ASSCOCIA A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST PUIS
NORD DU SYSTEME, EN RELATION AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST. A CELA S'AJOUTE UNE BAISSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES. CETTE
ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT AINSI AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT ELEANOR. C'EST DONC
UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA
REUNION SAMEDI, AVANT DE SE DISSIPER LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UN TALWEG DE
BASSES COUCHES.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE MAURICE :
- MER TOTALE INFERIEURE A 4 METRES ACTUELLEMNT FAIBLISSANT RAPIDEMENT
AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES NON SIGNIFICATIVES DANS LA NUIT SUR LA FACADE SUD
DE L'ILE.
- VAGUES DE 3 A 4 M D'EST PUIS SUD-EST S'ATTENUANT PROGRESSIVEMENT
VENDREDI=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.5S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.5S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.5S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.1S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.4S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 58.4E. 22FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND
231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221203
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/02/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 58.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 175 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
22.9 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
23.6 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65

48H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE ELEANOR CCC (CENTRAL COLD COVER) PATTERN
HAS GRADUALLY WARMED UP DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTER HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED THANKS TO RADAR IMAGERY FROM COLORADO
(REUNION ISLAND), WHICH DETECTS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS. METOP01'S CNL 89 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
0508UTC SHOWS AN EYE IN PHASE WITH THE PREVIOUS OBSERVATION, AS WELL
AS PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S POSITION.
ELEANOR CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GIVEN AS 16KT BY THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. THIS CONSTRAINT
UNDOUBTEDLY HINDERS THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL OF THE
SYSTEM, LEAVING IT AT THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE FOR NOW, IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST AMERICAN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA. FOLLOWING THE
ONGOING ASCAT PARTIAL SWATH, IT SEEMS THAT WIND EXTENSIONS ARE
OVERESTIMATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE WILL BE UPDATED DURING
THE NEXT ADVISORY.

ELEANOR IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CURVING GRADUALLY TO
THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 50-100 KM EAST OF
MAURITIUS TODAY. RSMC' TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS RELEVANT
MODELS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR
SHOULD BE PICKED UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FLOW ON THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INDUCING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH
OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. IT IS NOTED THAT GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
DISPERSED BEYOND SATURDAY.

IN A RATHER MIXED ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
A SMALL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL FORECASTS, THE RISK OF ELEANOR REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS MOVES FURTHER AWAY. FROM TOMORROW NIGHT ONWARD, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES
OF THE SYSTEM, IN CONNECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MEDIUM-TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LARGE MASCARENES
ARCHIPELAGO FROM TOMORROW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THUS SUSTAINABLY
WEAKEN ELEANOR. IT IS THEREFORE A REMNANT LOW THAT SHOULD TRANSIT
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- LIKELY GALE FORCE WINDS.
- TOTALS RAINFALL OF 50 TO 100 MM IN 24 HOURS, MAINLY DISPLACED OVER
THE SEA.
- CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 METERS WAVES, RAPIDLY DAMPENING DURING THE DAY,
THEN TOTAL SEA LESS THAN 4 METERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING AWAY.

REUNION:
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 100 MM POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY.
- 4 METER WAVES IN AN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 58.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

36H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 65

48H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 24/02/2024 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 25/02/2024 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION INITIALEMENT EN CCC
(CENTRAL COLD COVER) DE ELEANOR, S'EST GRADUELLEMENT RECHAUFFEE SOUS
L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE. LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES A PU
ETRE DETERMINE GRACE A L'IMAGERIE RADAR DU COLORADO QUI PERMET DE
DECELER UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES AU NORD-EST DE L'ILE
MAURICE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE CNL 89 DE METOP01 DE 0508UTC PRESENTE UN
OEIL EN PHASE AVEC L'OBSERVATION PERECEDENTE, AINSI Q'UNE CONVECTION
PARTICULIEREMENT BIEN MARQUA E A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU CENTER DE BASSES
COUCHES, DONNANT AINSI UNE BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA POSITION DU
METEORE. ELEANOR, CONTINUE D'ENDURER UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR NORD-EST, DONNE A 16KT PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMSS.
CETTE CONTRAINTE ENTRAVE SANS DOUTE LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
ACTUEL DU SYSTEME, LAISSE POUR LE MOMENT AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE, CONFORMEMENT A LA DERNIERE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK, EN
COHERENCE EGALEMENT AVEC LES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES AMERICAINES. SUITE AU PASSAGE DE L'ASCAT PARTIELLE EN
COURS DE RESEAU, IL SEMBLERAIT QUE LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT SOIENT
SURESTIMEES DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. CELLES-CI SERONT
REACTUALISEES AU COURS DU PROCHAIN RESEAU.

ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE
DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE CE DEPLACEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H,
EN S'INCURVANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE FAIT
PASSER LE SYSTEME A ENVIRON 50-100 KM A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE
AUJOURD'HUI. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES PERTINENTS. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE
BASSES COUCHES EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, INDUISANT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST AU SUD DES ILES SOEURS. IL EST A
NOTER QUE LES GUIDANCES RESTENT TRES DISPERSEES AU-DELA DE SAMEDI.

DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT MIXTE MARQUE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL MODERE EN ALTITUDE, UNE PETITE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE CET APRES-MIDI. CEPENDANT, AU VU DE LA TENDANCE
RECENTE ET DES DERNIERES PREVISIONS NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES, LE RISQUE
QU'ELEANOR ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL S'ELOIGNE DAVANTAGE.
A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT VA
NETTEMENT S'ACCENTUER EN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST ASSCOCIA A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST PUIS NORD DU SYSTEME,
EN RELATION AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST. A CELA S'AJOUTE UNE BAISSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CETTE
ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT AINSI AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT ELEANOR. C'EST DONC
UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA
RA UNION EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, AVANT DE SE DISSIPER LENTEMENT AU SEIN
D'UN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE MAURICE :
- PROBABLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 50 A 100MM EN 24 HEURES, DEPORTEES EN MER POUR
L'ESSENTIEL.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ACTUELLEMENT, EN COURS D'AMORTISSEMENT
RAPIDE EN JOURNEE, PUIS MER TOTALE INFERIEURE A 4 METRES CET APRES
MIDI AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 100MM POSSIBLES SUR LES FLANCS
SUD DU RELIEF EN JOURNEE.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES PAR HOULE D'EST PUIS DE SUD-EST.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220606
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/02/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
21.8 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
23.0 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.2S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.6S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.4S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.6S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.6S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.3S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 59.0E.
22FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
112 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 10
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CCC
(CENTRAL COLD COVER) CHARACTERIZED BY VERY COLD INFRARED CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING OVER A VAST AREA WITH NO DISTINCTIVE CURVATURE. THIS
PATTERN IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STABLE INTENSITY. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGES DO NOT SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING OF THE
SYSTEM SINCE 18Z, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF ELEANOR'S INNER CORE. LAST EVENING'S COMPLETE
ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 45-50KT. CONSEQUENTLY,
ELEANOR REMAINS ANALYZED AS A 50KT SEVERE STORM.

ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,WHILE PROGRESSIVELY BENDING
SOUTHWARD. THIS TRACK PLACES THE SYSTEM SOME 50-100 KM EAST OF
MAURITIUS TODAY THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS RELEVANT MODELS. A CLOSER SCENARIO TO MAURITIUS HAS NOT
BEEN RULED OUT, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR
IS LIKELY TO BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING
TO A WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND.

IN A SUPPOSITELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM SEEMS POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF RECENT
TRENDS AND THE LATEST NUMERICAL FORECASTS, THE LIKELIHOOD OF ELEANOR
REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IS DECREASING. FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE INNER CORE , A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A REMNANT
SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION
ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE SLOWLY DISAPPEARING.


IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE STORM.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 200MM.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER THURSDAY EVENING WITH EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
RELIEF FLANKS ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M IN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 59.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2024 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 23/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

36H: 23/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 10
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

48H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 270 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 24/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 25/02/2024 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ELEANOR
A EVOLUE VERS UN CCC (CENTRAL COLD COVER) CARACTERISE PAR DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS EN INFRAROUGE S'ETENDANT SUR UNE VASTE ETENDUE
SANS COURBURE PARTICULIERE. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST GENERALEMENT
ASSOCIEE A UNE INTENSITE STATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES ET RADAR NE PLAIDENT PAS POUR UN RENFORCEMENT DU SYSTEME
DEPUIS 18Z AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TOUJOURS CONFINEE AU
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU COEUR D'ELEANOR. LES DONNEES ASCAT COMPLETES
D'HIER SOIR SUGGERENT UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DE 45-50KT. EN
CONSEQUENCE, ELEANOR RESTE ANALYSEE EN FORTE TEMPETE 50KT.


ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE
DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE CE DEPLACEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H,
EN S'INCURVANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE FAIT
PASSER LE SYSTEME A ENVIRON 50-100 KM A L'EST DE MAURICE CE JEUDI. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES
PERTINENT. UN SCENARIO PLUS PROCHE DE L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PAS EXCLU
MAIS N'EST PAS POUR L'INSTANT PRIVILEGIE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE
DE BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST AU SUD DE LA
REUNION.

DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT A PRIORI PLUTOT FAVORABLE, UNE INTENSIFICATION
DU SYSTEME RESTE POSSIBLE D'ICI CE SOIR. CEPENDANT, AU VU DE LA
TENDANCE RECENTE ET DES DERNIERES PREVISIONS NUMERIQUES, LE RISQUE
QU'ELEANOR ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST EN BAISSE.
CEPENDANT A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE DE JEUDI A VENDREDI AVEC UN
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME, UN AFFAISSIBLEMENT SENSIBLE EST
ATTENDU, ET SE POURSUIVRA VENDREDI. C'EST DONC UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL
QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA RA UNION EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, AVANT DE DISPARAITRE LENTEMENT.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE MAURICE :
- PROBABLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT ET POSSIBLE TEMPETE.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 200MM.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR AVEC L'EVACUATION DU
SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 100MM POSSIBLES SUR LES FLANCS
SUD DU RELIEF EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M PAR HOULE D'EST PUIS DE SUD EST=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220024
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/02/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
21.0 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
22.5 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 59.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 55

60H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS HARDLY CHANGED.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL VERY STRONG IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT ( INTENSE ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY AND VERY COLD TOPS) AND HAS
MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CENTER. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE
EVENING'S SSMIS AND GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
MOVEMENT. A SMAP PASS AT 1356Z GIVES MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 45KT,
WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLY ASCAT DATA
AVAILABLE. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THEIR LATE ARRIVAL AND PENDING
COMPLETE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50KT.

ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK PLACES THE SYSTEM SOME
50-150 KM EAST OF MAURITIUS TOMORROW, THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST,
WHICH HAS BEEN REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND IS CLOSER TO THE MEAN OF THE EPS 06Z ENSEMBLE.
A CLOSER SCENARIO TO MAURITIUS HAS NOT BEEN RULED OUT, BUT IS NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORED. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR IS LIKELY TO BE PICKED UP
AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH
OF REUNION ISLAND.

THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH, ALLOWING ELEANOR'S CORE TO MOVE CLOSER TO
THE CONVECTION, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR COULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE CONDUCIVE TIMEFRAME SHOULD
CLOSE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, COMBINED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS OVER THE SYSTEM'S
CORE, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE
A RESIDUAL SYSTEM THAT IS LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF
REUNION ISLAND THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE DISAPPEARING.


IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND:
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.

MAURITIUS: FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY EVENING:
- PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE STORM.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 200MM.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER THRUSDAY EVENING WITH EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
RELIEF FLANKS ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 3 TO 4M IN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211838
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 59.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2024 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

48H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 295 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 55

60H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 0

72H: 24/02/2024 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 230 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2024 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ELEANOR
A PEU EVOLUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE TOUJOURS TRES MARQUEE DANS
LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST (ACTIVITE ELECTRITQUE SOUTENUE ET SOMMETS TRES
FROIDS) ET S'EST UN PEU RAPPROCHE DU CENTRE DE SURFACE. CELA EST
CONFIRMEE PAR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS ET GMI DE LA SOIREE. CETTE
CONFIGURATION SEMBLE TOUJOURS ENTRETENUE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
DE NORD-EST PARTIELLEMENT COMPENSE PAR LE DEPLACEMENT. UNE PASSE SMAP
A 1356Z DONNE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE DE 45KT CE QUI SEMBLE EN
ACCORD RELATIF AVEC LES PREMIERES DONNEES ASCAT DISPONIBLES. MALGRE
TOUT VU LEUR ARRIVEE TARDIVE ET EN ATTENDANT LES DONNEES COMPLETES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 50KT.

ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE
DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE CE DEPLACEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE FAIT PASSER LE SYSTEME A ENVIRON 50-150 KM A L'EST
DE MAURICE DEMAIN JEUDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS, QUI A ETE REVUE UN
PEU PLUS A L'OUEST, EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES ET
SE RAPPROCHE DE LA MOYENNE DE L'ENSEMBLE EPS 06Z. UN SCENARIO PLUS
PROCHE DE L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PAS EXCLU MAIS N'EST PAS POUR L'INSTANT
PRIVILEGIE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR
DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST AU SUD DE LA REUNION.

LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DIMINUER, PERMETTANT AU CENTRE D'ELEANOR DE
SE REPLACER PROCHE DE LA CONVECTION ET DONNANT ALORS DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
(FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE). ELEANOR POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL D'ICI JEUDI SOIR. TOUTEFOIS LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION
DEVRAIT SE FERMER DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI AVEC UN
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. CE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QUE
DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT PROVOQUER
UN AFFAISSIBLEMENT NET DU SYSTEME VENDREDI. C'EST DONC UN SYSTEME
RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA RA UNION
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, AVANT DE DISPARAITRE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
LES CONDITIONS S'AMELIORENT RAPIDEMENT SUR SAINT BRANDON.

ILE MAURICE :
- PROBABLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT ET POSSIBLE TEMPETE.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 200MM.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR AVEC L'EVACUATION DU
SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 100MM POSSIBLES SUR LES FLANCS
SUD DU RELIEF EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 3 A 4M PAR HOULE D'EST PUIS DE SUD EST.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211822
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/02/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 59.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
19.9 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
21.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211335
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 60.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 380 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM
ELEANOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE. ELEANOR STILL APPEARS TO BE SUBJECT TO
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR (ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 18KT 06UTC). THE GCOM
MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0925Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER UNDER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOW US TO
INCREASES THE T TO 3.5. HOWEVER, OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES STILL
ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM WIND OF AROUND 30 TO 35KT, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO
OUR ESTIMATE. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0525Z AND THE SAR AT 0137Z ENABLED US
TO READJUST THE WIND EXTENSIONS. IN THE END, THE MAXIMUM WIND
INTENSITY RETAINED BY CMRS DE LA REUNION IS STILL 50KT.

ELEANOR IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 50-100
KM EAST OF MAURITIUS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE CMRS
TRACK, WHICH HAS BEEN REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS (GFS PROPOSES A
TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO
MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE DAY, AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE
CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK.

SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALLOWING THE CENTER OF ELEANOR TO
MOVE UNDER CONVECTION AND PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR IS CURRENTLY IN THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM
STAGE, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A RAPID TRANSITION TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INTENSIFICATION
WINDOW SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY
ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO
THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE DAY.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12H. STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

MAURITIUS: FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY EVENING:
- PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE STORM.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 200MM.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
RELIEF FLANKS ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 3 TO 4M IN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211335
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 60.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 380 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2024 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 22/02/2024 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 23/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 23/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 24/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2024 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE LA
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ELEANOR A PEU EVOLUE. ELEANOR SEMBLE TOUJOURS
SOUMISE A UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT D'EST-NORD-EST (ANALYSE PAR LE
CIMSS A 18KT A 06UTC). L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 0925Z NOUS A
PERMIS DE LOCALISER LE CENTRE SOUS LA BORDURE EST DE LA CONVECTION.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK NOUS FAIT AUGMENTER LE T A 3.5 . CEPENDANT LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS ESTIMENT ENCORE UN VENT MAXIMAL DE DE 30
A 35KT ENVIRON ET APPORTENT DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR NOTRE ESTIMATION. LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 0525Z ET LA SAR DE 0137Z NOUS ONT PERMIS DE REAJUSTER
LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT. L'INTENSITE DE VENT MAX RETENUE PAR LE CMRS
DE LA REUNION EST FINALEMENT TOUJOURS A 50KT.

ELEANOR SE DIRIGE VERS LE SUD SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT AU
SUD-OUEST. ELLE DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD
PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE FAIT PASSER LE SYSTEME A ENVIRON 50-100 KM A L'EST DE
MAURICE ENTRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET JEUDI SOIR. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS, QUI A ETE REVUE UN PEU PLUS A L'OUEST, EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EN SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DE IFS (GFS
PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS PROCHE DE MAURICE ET EST SITUE EN
BORDURE OUEST DU FAISCEAU DES GUIDANCES CE QUI N'EXCLUT DONC PAS
COMPLETEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS PROCHE DE L'ILE MAURICE). EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS
DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES DE BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST BIEN AU SUD DE LA REUNION. LA DISPERSION EST DE NOUVEAU
PLUS IMPORTANTE POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE LAISSANT ENCORE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE.

LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONTINUER A DIMINUER, PERMETTANT AU CENTRE
D'ELEANOR DE SE PLACER SOUS LA CONVECTION ET DONNANT ALORS DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
(FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE). ELEANOR EST ACTUELLEMENT AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE ET LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PROPOSE UN PASSAGE RAPIDE AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI JEUDI APRES-MIDI. LA FENETRE
D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT SE FERMER DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. CE CISAILLEMENT
AINSI QUE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT
PROVOQUER UN AFFAISSIBLEMENT NET DU SYSTEME VENDREDI. C'EST DONC UN
SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA RA
UNION EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES POUR LES PROCHAINES 12H.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE : POUR LA PERIODE ENTRE LA SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI ET JEUDI SOIR:
- PROBABLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT ET POSSIBLE TEMPETE.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 200MM.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 100MM POSSIBLES SUR LES FLANCS
SUD DU RELIEF EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 3 A 4M PAR HOULE D'EST PUIS DE SUD EST.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.7S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.6S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.2S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.8S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.6S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.5S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 60.0E.
21FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
364 NM NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 211210
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/02/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 60.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210753 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

60H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95

72H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

ELEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ELEANOR SEEMS TO STILL BE SUBJECT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR
(ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 17KT AT 00UTC). THE GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM
0308Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED-WIND CONFIGURATION MAINTAINS A
T OF 3.0+. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY
OF AROUND 35KT. HOWEVER, OTHER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE MUCH
HIGHER WINDS: 58KT IN 10-MINUTE WINDS (66KT IN 1-MINUTE WINDS) FOR
THE SAR (SENTINEL-1A) AT 0137Z, 51KT FOR THE SMAP AT 0148Z AND 49KT
FOR THE SMOS AT 0217Z. FINALLY, THE ASCAT SWATH AT 0437Z MEASURES A
WIND OF 43KT, WHICH IS ACTUALLY 49KT IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
SATURATION OF THIS MEASUREMENT. THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY CHOSEN BY
CMRS DE LA REUNION IS THEREFORE 50KT, CLASSIFYING ELEANOR AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MEASUREMENTS, THIS INTENSITY
WAS REACHED EARLIER LAST NIGHT, SINCE 00Z.

ELEANOR HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
HIGH-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK TAKES THE
SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON IN MID-DAY, A 70 KM EAST, THEN EAST OF
MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY. THE DISPERSION OF MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS DECREASING, GIVING FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A TRACK EAST OF
MAURITIUS. THE CMRS TRACK, REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING
CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND
IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK.

ELEANOR IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE A COMPACT CORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR IS
DECREASING, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM
INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR, CURRENTLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, COULD
REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY. BUT GUIDANCES, NOTABLY
AROME, SUGGEST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE IS
THEREFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ELEANOR WILL REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST NEVERTHELESS SUGGESTS A
SHORT PERIOD BEFORE IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY AND MORE
CLEARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS
THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- 4 TO 5M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY.
- 4-METRE WAVES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210753 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2024 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 22/02/2024 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 35

60H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95

72H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ELEANOR
A PEU EVOLUEE. ELEANOR SEMBLE TOUJOURS SOUMISE A UN CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT D'EST-NORD-EST (ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 17KT A 00UTC). L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 0308Z NOUS A PERMIS DE LOCALISER LE CENTRE EN
BORDURE EST DE LA CONVECTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE MAINTIENT UN T DE 3.0+. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS
ESTIMENT UN VENT MAXIMAL D'UNE INTENSITE DE 35KT ENVIRON. CEPENDANT
D'AUTRES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ESTIMENT DES VENTS BIEN SUPERIEURS :
58KT EN VENT 10 MINUTES (66KT EN VENT 1 MIN) POUR LA SAR
(SENTINEL-1A) DE 0137Z, 51KT POUR LA SMAP DE 0148Z ET 49KT POUR LA
SMOS DE 0217Z. ENFIN LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0437Z MESURE UN VENT DE 43KT,
MAIS QUI VAUT EN REALITE 49KT SI ON TIENT COMPTE DE LA SATURATION DE
CETTE MESURE. L'INTENSITE DE VENT MAX RETENUE PAR LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION EST DONC 50KT, CLASSANT ELEANOR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. D'APRES CES DERNIERES MESURES CETTE INTENSITE AURAIT ETE
ATTEINTE PLUS TOT LA NUIT DERNIERE, DEPUIS 00Z.


ELEANOR A ENTAME SON TRAJET VERS LE SUD SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT
AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
SUD PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE FAIT PASSER LE SYSTEME L'EST DE SAINT-BRANDON EN
MI-JOURNEE A ENVIRON 70KM A L'EST, PUIS A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE EN
JOURNEE DE JEUDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES POUR LES PROCHAINES 48H
EST EN BAISSE, DONNANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE POUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS, QUI A ETE REVUE UN
PEU PLUS A L'OUEST, EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EN
SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DE IFS (GFS PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
PROCHE DE MAURICE ET EST SITUE EN BORDURE OUEST DU FAISCEAU DES
GUIDANCES CE QUI N'EXCLUE DONC PAS COMPLETEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
PROCHE DE L'ILE MAURICE). EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES DE
BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST BIEN AU SUD DE
LA REUNION. LA DISPERSION EST DE NOUVEAU PLUS IMPORTANTE POUR LA FIN
D'ECHEANCE LAISSANT ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE.

ELEANOR A DU MAL A CONSOLIDER UN COEUR COMPACT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-EST. CEPENDANT CE CISAILLEMENT EST EN
BAISSE, DONNANT ALORS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME (FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). ELEANOR, ACTUELLEMENT AU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL JEUDI. MAIS LES GUIDANCES, NOTAMMENT AROME,
PROPOSENT UNE INTENSIFICATION MOINS IMPORTANTE QUE PRECEDEMENT. IL
EXISTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS MARQUEE SUR LE FAIT QU'ELEANOR
ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PROPOSE
TOUT DE MEME UN PASSAGE RAPIDE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI
36H. LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT SE FERMER JEUDI ET PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VENDREDI AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST. CE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QUE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SUR LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROVOQUER UN AFFAISSIBLEMENT NET DU SYSTEME
VENDREDI. C'EST DONC UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD
PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA RA UNION EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- POSSIBLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 100 A 150MM POSSIBLES SUR LE RELIEF
EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

60H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95

72H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

LEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ELEANOR SEEMS TO STILL BE SUBJECT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR
(ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 17KT AT 00UTC). THE GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM
0308Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED-WIND CONFIGURATION MAINTAINS A
T OF 3.0+. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY
OF AROUND 35KT. HOWEVER, OTHER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE MUCH
HIGHER WINDS: 58KT IN 10-MINUTE WINDS (66KT IN 1-MINUTE WINDS) FOR
THE SAR (SENTINEL-1A) AT 0137Z, 51KT FOR THE SMAP AT 0148Z AND 49KT
FOR THE SMOS AT 0217Z. FINALLY, THE ASCAT SWATH AT 0437Z MEASURES A
WIND OF 43KT, WHICH IS ACTUALLY 49KT IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
SATURATION OF THIS MEASUREMENT. THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY CHOSEN BY
CMRS DE LA REUNION IS THEREFORE 50KT, CLASSIFYING ELEANOR AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MEASUREMENTS, THIS INTENSITY
WAS REACHED EARLIER LAST NIGHT, SINCE 00Z.

ELEANOR HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
HIGH-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK TAKES THE
SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON IN MID-DAY, A 70 KM EAST, THEN EAST OF
MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY. THE DISPERSION OF MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS DECREASING, GIVING FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A TRACK EAST OF
MAURITIUS. THE CMRS TRACK, REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING
CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND
IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK.

ELEANOR IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE A COMPACT CORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR IS
DECREASING, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM
INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR, CURRENTLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, COULD
REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY. BUT GUIDANCES, NOTABLY
AROME, SUGGEST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE IS
THEREFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ELEANOR WILL REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST NEVERTHELESS SUGGESTS A
SHORT PERIOD BEFORE IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY AND MORE
CLEARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS
THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- 4 TO 5M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY.
- 4-METRE WAVES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/7/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2024 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 22/02/2024 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 35

60H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95

72H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ELEANOR
A PEU EVOLUEE. ELEANOR SEMBLE TOUJOURS SOUMISE A UN CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT D'EST-NORD-EST (ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 17KT A 00UTC). L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 0308Z NOUS A PERMIS DE LOCALISER LE CENTRE EN
BORDURE EST DE LA CONVECTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE MAINTIENT UN T DE 3.0+. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS
ESTIMENT UN VENT MAXIMAL D'UNE INTENSITE DE 35KT ENVIRON. CEPENDANT
D'AUTRES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ESTIMENT DES VENTS BIEN SUPERIEURS :
58KT EN VENT 10 MINUTES (66KT EN VENT 1 MIN) POUR LA SAR
(SENTINEL-1A) DE 0137Z, 51KT POUR LA SMAP DE 0148Z ET 49KT POUR LA
SMOS DE 0217Z. ENFIN LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0437Z MESURE UN VENT DE 43KT,
MAIS QUI VAUT EN REALITE 49KT SI ON TIENT COMPTE DE LA SATURATION DE
CETTE MESURE. L'INTENSITE DE VENT MAX RETENUE PAR LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION EST DONC 50KT, CLASSANT ELEANOR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. D'APRES CES DERNIERES MESURES CETTE INTENSITE AURAIT ETE
ATTEINTE PLUS TOT LA NUIT DERNIERE, DEPUIS 00Z.


ELEANOR A ENTAME SON TRAJET VERS LE SUD SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT
AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE DEVRAIT ALORS POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
SUD PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE FAIT PASSER LE SYSTEME L'EST DE SAINT-BRANDON EN
MI-JOURNEE A ENVIRON 70KM A L'EST, PUIS A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE EN
JOURNEE DE JEUDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES POUR LES PROCHAINES 48H
EST EN BAISSE, DONNANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE POUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS, QUI A ETE REVUE UN
PEU PLUS A L'OUEST, EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EN
SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DE IFS (GFS PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
PROCHE DE MAURICE ET EST SITUE EN BORDURE OUEST DU FAISCEAU DES
GUIDANCES CE QUI N'EXCLUE DONC PAS COMPLETEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
PROCHE DE L'ILE MAURICE). EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES DE
BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST BIEN AU SUD DE
LA REUNION. LA DISPERSION EST DE NOUVEAU PLUS IMPORTANTE POUR LA FIN
D'ECHEANCE LAISSANT ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE.

ELEANOR A DU MAL A CONSOLIDER UN COEUR COMPACT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-EST. CEPENDANT CE CISAILLEMENT EST EN
BAISSE, DONNANT ALORS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME (FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). ELEANOR, ACTUELLEMENT AU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL JEUDI. MAIS LES GUIDANCES, NOTAMMENT AROME,
PROPOSENT UNE INTENSIFICATION MOINS IMPORTANTE QUE PRECEDEMENT. IL
EXISTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS MARQUEE SUR LE FAIT QU'ELEANOR
ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PROPOSE
TOUT DE MEME UN PASSAGE RAPIDE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI
36H. LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT SE FERMER JEUDI ET PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VENDREDI AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST. CE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QUE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SUR LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROVOQUER UN AFFAISSIBLEMENT NET DU SYSTEME
VENDREDI. C'EST DONC UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD
PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA RA UNION EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- POSSIBLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 50 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 100 A 150MM POSSIBLES SUR LE RELIEF
EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 210611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/02/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 270 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 540NM IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
20.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.6S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.7S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 60.6E.
21FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 60.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR'S CLOUD CONFGURATION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE. ELEANOR STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR (CIMSS ANALYSIS AT 18KT TO 18UTC), LEAVING THE CENTER ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED
CONFIGURATION MAINTAINS A T OF 3.0+. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GCOM AT
2109Z AND SSMIS AT 2335Z SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS STRUGGLING TO
CONSOLIDATE, AND THAT CONVECTION IS REJECTED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER AS WELL AS IN A BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE (BUT AWAY FROM
THE CENTER). IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA, ELEANOR IS
MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. ELEANOR HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUILDS UP,
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON TODAY, A HUNDRED KM
EAST, THEN EAST OF MAURITIUS ON FRIDAY. THE DISPERSION OF MODELS FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS DECREASING, GIVING FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A
TRACK EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK
CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO
MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING,
ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO
A WESTERLY TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE
AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
FINAL TRACK.

ELEANOR IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE A COMPACT CORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW
SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR SHOULD THEREFORE REACH
THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUIDANCES, NOTABLY AROME, SUGGEST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY. THERE IS THEREFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
ELEANOR WILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
NEVERTHELESS SUGGESTS A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE IT BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CLOSE
ON THURSDAY AND MORE CLEARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
OVER THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE
SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD
TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- 4M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY.
- 4-METRE WAVES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 60.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2024 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 22/02/2024 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 22/02/2024 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 23/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 23/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

72H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ELEANOR
A PEU EVOLUE. ELEANOR SEMBLE TOUJOURS SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT DE NORD-EST (ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 18KT A 18UTC) LAISSANT LE
CENTRE EN BORDURE EST DE LA CONVECTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE MAINTIENT UN T DE 3.0+. SUR LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 2109Z ET SSMIS DE 2335Z ON CONSTATE QUE LE CENTRE
A DU MAL A BIEN SE CONSOLIDER ET QUE LA CONVECTION EST REJETEE A
L'OUEST DU CENTRE AINSI QUE DANS UNE BANDE DANS LE SEMI-CERCLE EST
(MAIS ELOIGNEE DU CENTRE). EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES, ELEANOR EST MAINTENUE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE 40KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. ELEANOR A ENTAME SON
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST
DU SYSTEME, SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST. ELLE DEVRAIT ALORS
POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE FAIT PASSER LE SYSTEME
L'EST DE SAINT-BRANDON AUJOURD'HUI A UNE CENTAINE DE KM A L'EST, PUIS
A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES POUR LES PROCHAINES 48H EST EN BAISSE, DONNANT UNE ASSEZ
BONNE CONFIANCE POUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES EN
SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DE IFS ET DE AROME (GFS PROPOSE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS PROCHE DE MAURICE ET EST SITUE EN BORDURE OUEST DU
FAISCEAU DES GUIDANCES CE QUI N'EXCLUE DONC PAS COMPLETEMENT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS PROCHE DE L'ILE MAURICE). EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES DE BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST
BIEN AU SUD DE LA REUNION. LA DISPERSION EST DE NOUVEAU PLUS
IMPORTANTE POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE LAISSANT ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE.

ELEANOR A DU MAL A CONSOLIDE UN COEUR COMPACT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-EST. CEPENDANT CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
BAISSER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, DONNANT ALORS DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
(FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE). ELEANOR DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H. LES GUIDANCES, NOTAMMENT AROME,
PROPOSENT UNE INTENSIFICATION MOINS IMPORTANTE QUE PRECEDEMENT. IL
EXISTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS MARQUEE SUR LE FAIT QU'ELEANOR
ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE PROPOSE
TOUT DE MEME UN PASSAGE RAPIDE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI LES
48H. LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT SE FERMER JEUDI ET PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VENDREDI AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST. CE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QUE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SUR LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROVOQUER UN AFFAISSIBLEMENT NET DU SYSTEME
VENDREDI. C'EST DONC UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU SUD
PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA RA UNION EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4M JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- POSSIBLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAIN DE 50 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAINS DE 100 A 150MM POSSIBLES SUR LE RELIEF
EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 210009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/02/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 60.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 60.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND ELEANOR HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH THE NIGHT-TIME EVOLUTION AND THE DECREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CENTER GRADUALLY REPOSITIONED ITSELF BELOW
THE CONVECTION. MICROWAVE SSMIS IMAGES FROM 1229 AND 1448 SHOW A MORE
COMPACT STRUCTURE AROUND THE EYE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ACAT DATA, AND IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE, ELEANOR
IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. ELEANOR SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTH OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS
TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY, SOME
100 KM TO THE EAST, THEN EAST OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS ON FRIDAY.
EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED MODELS PERSIST IN SHOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO
MAURITIUS, THE DISPERSION IS LESS IMPORTANT NOW. THE RSMC FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS AND
AROME. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE
CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, RESULTING IN A WESTERLY TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK.

OVERALL, ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS QUICK DEEPENING
DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY,
PROBABLY LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF
DRY INTRUSIONS. BY LATE WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN A
RESIDUAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT-BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW RISK OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT RISK DECREASING
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- 4M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

MAURITIUS:
- POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW RISK OF STORM
FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY, BUT RISK DECREASING.
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES.

REUNION:
- WAVES OF 4 METERS BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 60.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2024 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 21/02/2024 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 22/02/2024 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

72H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DE
ELEANOR S'EST UN PEU AMELIOREE AVEC L'EVOLUTION NOCTURNE AINSI
QU'AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST. LE CENTRE S'EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT REPOSITIONNE EN DESSOUS DE LA CONVECTION. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1229 ET DE 1448 MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE QUI
DEVIENT PLUS COMPACTE ATOUR DE L'OEIL. EN ABSENCE DE DONNES ACAT ET
EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES,
ELEANOR EST MAINTENUE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES
VENTS DE 40KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE. ELEANOR DEVRAIT RALENTIR
SA COURSE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, FREINE PAR LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE
DORSALE A L'EST SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. ELLE DEVRAIT
ALORS POURSUIVRE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD CETTE NUIT PUIS VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST ENSUITE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE FAIT PASSER LE SYSTEME L'EST
DE SAINT-BRANDON EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI A UNE CENTAINE DE KM A L'EST,
PUIS A L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. MEME SI
CERTAINS MODELES ISOLES PERSISTENT A METTRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
PROCHE DE L'A LE MAURICE, LA DISPERSION EST MOINS IMPORTANTE
DORENAVANT. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES EN SE RAPPROCHANT DAVANTAGE DE IFS ET DE AROME. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE
REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES DE BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST BIEN AU SUD DE LA REUNION. LA DISPERSION EST
DE NOUVEAU PLUS IMPORTANTE POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE LAISSANT ENCORE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE.

ELEANOR BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES,
UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QU'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, CE QUI DEVRAIT
LUI PERMETTRE DE S'INTENSIFIER PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT SUIVANT LES
SCENARIOS. UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE N'EST PAS EXCLUE NOTAMMENT EN
RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. ELLE DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI JEUDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI ET
SURTOUT JEUDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE
RENFORCER ET PROBABLEMENT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVENANT
PRONONCE VENDREDI SUITE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
C'EST UN SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST
DE LA REUNION.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H.
FAIBLE RISQUE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, MAIS
RISQUE EN BAISSE
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4M JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- POSSIBLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN SOIREE DE MERCREDI. FAIBLE
RISQUE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI, MAIS RISQUE EN
BAISSE
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAIN DE 50 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET VENDREDI=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201809
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/02/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 60.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
17.7 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 59.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.9S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.4S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.3S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.4S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 59.8E.
20FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
471 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201330
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 59.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND THAT DEVELOPED SHORTLY BEFORE
06Z HAS LOST DEFINITION, GIVING WAY TO A CENTER COVERED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS. A HOT SPOT HAS TEMPORARILY FORMED, BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO
CORRESPOND TO A REAL EARLY EYE. THE FULL DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASSES
SUGGEST AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 35KT AT 06Z. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SATCON AND AIDT.

ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT HOURS,
DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN THIS EVENING, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE
EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO
TURN SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, WITH A
CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSIT NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY. FORECAST
SPREAD SEEM TO BE STARTING TO DECREASE, PROBABLY THANKS TO BETTER
INITIAL ANALYSES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS,
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE AROME AND CONW (STATISTIC) FORECAST.
AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK.

OVERALL, ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS QUICK DEEPENING
DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY,
PROBABLY LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF
DRY INTRUSIONS. BY LATE WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN A
RESIDUAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- WAVES OF 4 M BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SWIFT IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS DURING THURSDAY, BUT RISK WEAKENING
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY, BUT RATHER UNCERTAIN
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.

REUNION :
- WAVES OF 4 METRES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201330
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 59.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2024 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 21/02/2024 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 22/02/2024 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 22/02/2024 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 23/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 23/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2024 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 0

120H: 25/02/2024 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA BANDE INCURVEE QUI S'ETAIT
DEVELOPPEE PEU AVANT 06Z A PERDU EN DEFINITION, LAISSANT PLACE A UN
CENTRE NOYE SOUS LES CIRRUS. UN POINT CHAUD S'EST TEMPORAIREMENT
FORME MAIS NE SEMBLE PAS CORRESPONDRE A UNE REELLE EBAUCHE D'OEIL.
LES DONNEES COMPLETES DES PASSES ASCAT SUGGERENT UNE INTENSITE PROCHE
DE 35KT A 06Z. EN CONSEQUENCE, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40KT EN
ACCORD RELATIF AVEC LE DERNIER SATCON ET AIDT.

ELEANOR DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST
CES PROCHAINES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
PROCHE-EQUATORIAUX. PUIS CE SOIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA
COURSE, FREINE PAR LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST SE
PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, CE QUI LUI FERA PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI PUIS VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST ENSUITE AVEC UN PASSAGE DIRECT AUX ABORDS DE
SAINT-BRANDON MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER
AU NORD-EST DE MAURICE JEUDI. LA DISPERSION DES PREVISIONS SEMBLENT
COMMENCER A SE REDUIRE PROBABLEMENT GRACE A DE MEILLEURES ANALYSES
INITIALES. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DERNIERS
RUNS DES MODELES, EN RELATIF ACCORD AVEC LA PREVISION D'AROME ET DU
MODELE STATISTIQUE CONW. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUITE A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZE DE
BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST.

ELEANOR BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES,
UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QU'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, CE QUI DEVRAIT
LUI PERMETTRE DE S'INTENSIFIER PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT SUIVANT LES
SCENARIOS. UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE N'EST PAS EXCLUE NOTAMMENT EN
RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. IL DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI JEUDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI ET
SURTOUT JEUDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE
RENFORCER ET PROBABLEMENT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVENANT
PRONONCE VENDREDI SUITE AUX INTRUSIONS SECHES. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
C'EST UNE SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST
DE LA REUNION.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4M ENTRE MARDI APRES-MIDI ET MERCREDI SOIR.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- POSSIBLE VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN SOIREE DE MERCREDI. FAIBLE
RISQUE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI, MAIS RISQUE EN
BAISSE
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAIN DE 50 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

REUNION :
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET VENDREDI=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201226
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/02/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 59.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
15.2 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200746
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 59.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN NEAR THE ELEANOR CENTER HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED, WITH CONVECTION BURSTS SHOWING LITTLE
CURVATURE. 0350Z GMI AND LATE-NIGHT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES DO NOT
SHOW AN INDISPUTABLE POSITION FOR THE SURFACE CENTER. THE LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY AT 06Z REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. IN THE LATEST IMAGES, A NEW,
MORE PRONOUNCED CURVED BAND SEEMS TO BE FORMING CLOSE TO THE CENTER.
IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA AT THE TIME, THE INTENSITY WAS
MAINTAINED AT 40KT. HOWEVER, EARLY DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST
THAT THIS ANALYSIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERESTIMATED.

ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN THIS
EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A
RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, WITH A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE VICINITY OF
SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS) ON
THURSDAY. THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOSELY RELATED TO THE
SWELLING/COLLAPSING OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IT'S ON THIS PRECISE POINT THAT CURRENT
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE SCENARIO TO BE FOLLOWED. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS (EPS AND GEFS),
AS WELL AS DETERMINIST MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE STASTICAL MODEL CONW,
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE AROME FORECAST. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR
SHOULD BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A
WESTERLY TRACK.

OVERALL, ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS QUICK DEEPENING
DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE BY WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT AT THE LATEST. FROM
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY, PROBABLY LEADING TO A
PRONOUNCED WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF DRY INTRUSIONS. BY LATE
WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN A RESIDUAL LOW TO THE SOUTH
AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND:
- GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48HOURS.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SWIFT IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES.
MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY, BUT RISK WEAKENING
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY, BUT RATHER UNCERTAIN
- WAVES OF 4 TO 8 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200746
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 59.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2024 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65

24H: 21/02/2024 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

36H: 21/02/2024 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 22/02/2024 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

72H: 23/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2024 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 25/02/2024 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE PROCHE DU
CENTRE D'ELEANOR EST RESTE ASSEZ MAL DEFINIE AVEC DES BURSTS DE
CONVECTION AVEC UNE FAIBLE COURBURE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GMI 0350Z
ET SSMIS DE FIN DE NUIT NE MONTRENT PAS DE POSITION INDISCUTABLE POUR
LE CENTRE DE SURFACE. L'INCERTITUDE DE POSITION A 06Z RESTE DONC
IMPORTANTE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, UNE NOUVELLE BANDE INCURVEE
PLUS MARQUA E SEMBLE SE FORMER A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES CLAIRES A L'HEURE DU RESEAU, L'INTENSITE A ETE MAINTENUE A
40KT. TOUTEFOIS LES PREMIERES DONNEES DES PASSES ASCAT SEMBLENT
MONTRER QUE CETTE ANALYSE SOIT UN PEU SURESTIMEE.

ELEANOR DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE
L'EST-SUD-EST CES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES SOUS L'EFFET DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS PROCHE-EQUATORIAUX. PUIS CE SOIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR SA COURSE, FREINE PAR LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST
SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, CE QUI LUI FERA PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI PUIS VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST ENSUITE AVEC UN PASSAGE DIRECT AUX ABORDS DE
SAINT-BRANDON MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER
AU NORD-EST DES ILES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION ET MAURICE) JEUDI. CETTE
PREVISION SERA ETROITEMENT LIEE AU GONFLEMENT/AFFAISSEMENT DE LA
DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME EN JOURNA E DE JEUDI OU VENDREDI. C'EST SUR
CE POINT PRECIS QUE LES GUIDANCES ACTUELLES RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR LE
SCENARIO A TENIR. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE DISPERSION DES MEMBRES DES
PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES (EPS ET GEFS), AINSI QUE DES MODELES
DETERMINISTES. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DERNIERS RUNS DES MODELES DE GRANDE ECHELLE ET LE MODELE STASTITQUE
CONW, EN RELATIF ACCORD AVEC LA PREVISION D'AROME. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE,
SUITE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ELEANOR DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZE DE BASSES COUCHES INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST.

ELEANOR BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES,
UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT AINSI QU'UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, CE QUI DEVRAIT
LUI PERMETTRE DE S'INTENSIFIER PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT SUIVANT LES
SCENARIOS. UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE N'EST PAS EXCLUE NOTAMMENT EN
RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. IL DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI AU PLUS
TARD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI ET SURTOUT JEUDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER ET PROBABLEMENT CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVENANT PRONONCE VENDREDI SUITE AUX INTRUSIONS
SECHES. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, C'EST UNE SYSTEME RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT
EVOLUER AU SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST DE LA REUNION.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLES MARDI SOIR JUSQU'A
MERCREDI. POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 200 MM DANS LES 48 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES ENTRE MARDI APRES-MIDI ET MERCREDI SOIR.
PUIS AMELIORATION RAPIDE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT JEUDI EN JOURNEE. POSSIBLES
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI, MAIS RISQUE EN BAISSE
- CUMULS DE PLUIES INCERTAIN DE 50 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 8 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/02/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 59.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
14.5 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
16.0 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.6S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.9S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.4S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 58.0E. 20FEB24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
366 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 993 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 57.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
A TECHNICAL INCIDENT HAS LED TO AN UNTIMELY SHIFT IN THE NUMBER OF
THE RSMC BULLETIN IN RELATION TO THE MARINE ADVISORY. RSMC LA REUNION
APOLOGIZES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE PRONOUNCED, WITH THE CENTER OF ROTATION BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
OBVIOUS, DESPITE THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OR SCATTEROMETER DATA
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD CENTER AT 00UTC. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES PRIOR TO THE
NETWORK GAVE A DT OF 3.0, IN LINE WITH THE PT. THIS ESTIMATE REMAINS
CLOSE TO AMERICAN ESTIMATES (KNES AND PGTW) AS WELL AS TO OBJECTIVE
CIMSS DATA INCLUDING DPRINT AND AIDT. THE NEXT SSMIS AND GPMI
DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA, SCHEDULED IN A FEW HOURS' TIME, WILL ENABLE US
TO ASSESS THE QUALITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE'S CONSOLIDATION.

ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN TONIGHT,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO
THE EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE
IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS, WITH A DIRECT PASSAGE AROUND SAINT-BRANDON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS) ON THURSDAY. THIS
FORECAST WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SWELLING/SINKING OF THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER
SOUTH-WEST. IT'S ON THIS PRECISE POINT THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS
SCATTERED AS TO WHICH SCENARIO TO FOLLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
WIDE DISPERSION OF THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS (EPS AND
GEFS), AS WELL AS THE DETERMINIST MODELS, EVEN IF IFS AND GFS SEEM TO
AGREE ON A PASSAGE FURTHER EAST OF MAURITIUS. HOWEVER, AS THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS HIGH FROM D+3, WE WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OF TRACK FURTHER EAST (
AVOIDING REUNION ISLAND) OR FURTHER WEST (IMPACTING MORE ON THE
SISTER ISLANDS). THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE REFINED REGULARLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVERALL:
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A MONSOON FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT, LOW SHEAR (FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR 9KT)
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING STEADILY UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
24-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DURING WHICH MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STRESS COULD STABILIZE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT MAKES ITS FINAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE MASCARENES. FROM
THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY, ELEANOR SHOULD UNDERGO A PROGRESSIVE
WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-WESTERLY
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR BEGINNING TO INTRODUCE DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM.
THIS AGGRAVATING FACTOR CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, WITH A 200 MB SHEAR
THAT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE PRONOUNCED, BRINGING A DOSE OF
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THE DROP IN OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, WITH COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF THE 20TH PARALLEL, SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PUT THE WIND OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SEE ITS MAIN
CONVECTION WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND
SMALL. STRONG VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE DUE TO
INTERNAL MECHANISMS, IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME, AND ARE THEREFORE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE
SUBJECT TO A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WILL
BE REFINED ACCORDINGLY

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND:
- GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 48/72 HOURS.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES.
MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 8 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200032
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 57.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2024 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 21/02/2024 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 21/02/2024 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 22/02/2024 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 22/02/2024 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

72H: 23/02/2024 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2024 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 25/02/2024 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
UN INCIDENT TECHNIQUE A CONDUIT A UN DECALAGE INTEMPESTIF DU NUMERO
DU BULLETIN CMRS PAR RAPPORT AU BMS. LE CMRS DE LA REUNION S'EXCUSE
POUR LA GENE OCCASIONNEE.

T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
EST UN PEU PLUS PRONONCEE, AVEC UN CENTRE DE ROTATION DEVENANT UN PEU
PLUS EVIDENT, MALGRE LE MANQUE DE D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDE OU DE DONNEEES
DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES QUI PERMETTAIENT DE LEVER TOTALEMENT L'INCERTITUDE
SUR LA POSITION DU CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSSES COUCHES A 00UTC. LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK AVANT LE RESEAU DONNENT UN DT DE 3.0,
CONFORME AU PT. CETTE ESTIMATION RESTE PROCHE DES ESTIMATIONS
AMERICAINES (KNES ET PGTW) AINSI QUE DES DONNA ES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS
DONT LE DPRINT ET L'AIDT. LES PROCHAINES FAUCHEES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES
SSMIS ET GPMI PREVUES DANS QUELQUES HEURES PERMETTRONT A POSTERIORI
D'ESTIMER LA QUALITE DE LA CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR CONVECTIF CENTRAL.

ELEANOR DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE
L'EST-SUD-EST CES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES SOUS L'EFFET DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS PROCHE-EQUATORIAUX. PUIS CE SOIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR SA COURSE, FREINE PAR LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST
SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, CE QUI LUI FERA PRENDRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI PUIS VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST ENSUITE AVEC UN PASSAGE DIRECT AUX ABORDS DE
SAINT-BRANDON MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER
AU NORD-EST DES ILES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION ET MAURICE) JEUDI. CETTE
PREVISION SERA ETROITEMENT LIEE AU GONFLEMENT/AFFAISSEMENT DE LA
DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME EN JOURNA E DE JEUDI OU VENDREDI, AINSI QUE
DE SON INTERACTION AVEC UN THALWEG SUBTROPICAL SITUE PLUS AU
SUD-OUEST. C'EST SUR CE POINT PRECIS QUE LES GUIDANCES ACTUELLES
RESTENT DISPERSEES SUR LE SCENARIO A TENIR. CELA SE TRADUIT PAR UNE
FORTE DISPERSION DES MEMBRES DES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES (EPS ET
GEFS), AINSI QUE DES MODELES DETERMINISTES, MEME SI IFS ET GFS
SEMBLENT S'ACCORDER POUR UN PASSAGE PLUS VERS L'EST DE L'ILE MAURICE.
TOUTEFOIS, L'INCERTITUDE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTANT IMPORTANTE A
PARTIR DE J+3, IL FAUDRA RESTER PRUDENT SUR UNE EVENTUELLE
MODIFICATION DE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS A L'EST (EPARGANT LA REUNION) OU
PLUS A L'OUEST (IMPACTANT ALORS DAVANTAGE LES ILES SOEUR). LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SERA AFFINEE REGULIEREMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS.

ELEANOR BENEFICIE GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
: UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN CONTENU EN HUMIDITE IMPORTANT EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES AVEC UN
FLUX DE MOUSSON DEVENANT PLUS CONVERGENT, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT (DE
SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST POUR 9KT) AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE POURSUIVRE UNE
INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE JUSQU'A MERCREDI. SUIVRA ENSUITE UNE
PERIODE 24 HEURES ENTRE MERCREDI ET JEUDI OU UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE
MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST POURRAIT STABILISER L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, DANS SON APPROCHE FINAL VERS LES MASCAREIGNES. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI SOIR OU VENDREDI, ELEANOR DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISEMENT PROGRESSIVE EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-OUEST
MODERE A FORT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCANT A INTRODUIRE DE L'AIR
SEC AU DESSUS DU SYSTEME. CE FACTEUR AGGRAVANT SE POURSUIT SAMEDI,
AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT A 200 MB DE PLUS EN PLUS TRAVERSANT APPORTANT
UNE DOSE D'AIR SEC SUPPLEMENTAIRE AU DESSUS DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, AVEC DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AU SUD DU
20EME PARALLELE, DEVRAIT FINIR PAR ESSOUFLER LE SYSTEME QUI VERRA SA
CONVECTION PRINCIPALE S'AFFAIBLIR ET SE DEPORTER AU SUD. IL EST A
NOTER QUE LE SYSTEME EST COMPACT ET DE PETITE TAILLE. DE FORTES
VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE SONT DONC POSSIBLES PAR DES MECANISMES
INTERNES, DANS UN COURT LAPS DE TEMPS, ET DONC DIFFICILEMENT
PREVISIBLES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST DONC EMPREINTE
D'UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE AU COURS DE CES PROCHAINS JOURS, ET SERA
AFFINEE EN CONSEQUENCE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLES MARDI SOIR JUSQU'A
MERCREDI. POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 150 MM DANS LES 48/72 HEURES.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES ENTRE MARDI APRES-MIDI ET MERCREDI SOIR.
PUIS AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT JEUDI EN JOURNEE. POSSIBLES
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 8 METRES ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE AU-DELA AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/02/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 57.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 380 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 12 UTC:
14.4 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
15.2 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191936
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 56.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85

120H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
A TECHNICAL INCIDENT HAS LED TO AN UNTIMELY SHIFT IN THE NUMBER OF
THE RSMC BULLETIN IN RELATION TO THE MARINE ADVISORY. RSMC LA REUNION
APOLOGIZES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY, THANKS TO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE, WITH A CLOUD PATTERN THAT
HAS IMPROVED, WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED, WIDENED AND BECOME
MORE CURVED IN THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES. A CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CORE IS ALSO UNDERWAY, AS SHOWN BY THE SUCCESSION OF 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIALLY RATHER LOOSE AND ILL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE CORE OF SSMIS-F17 AT 0240Z AND AMSR2 AT 0935Z HAS GIVEN
WAY TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN SSMIS-F18 AT
1239Z (AND SSMIS-F17 AT 1459Z), SHOWING AN ALMOST CIRCULAR BLUE EYE.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES SUGGEST 35KT IN THE
CIRCULATION. OBJECTIVE AMERICAN INTENSITY DATA ALSO LEND CREDIBILITY
TO THIS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE ELEMENTS, THE SYSTEM WAS
NAMED ELEANOR AT 18UTC BY THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN TOMORROW, TUESDAY,
IT SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO
THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE
IT TO TURN SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS FINAL TRACK,
WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND
MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AS WELL AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST
GUIDELINES ARE STILL WIDELY DISPERSED ON THE SCENARIO TO BE FOLLOWED,
RESULTING IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK BEYOND 48
HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING GFS AND IFS,
THE RSMC TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED, TAKING IT FURTHER EAST OF THE ISLAND
OF MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS HIGH FROM D+3 ONWARDS, IT WILL
BE NECESSARY TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE
TRAJECTORY FURTHER EAST (SPARING REUNION) OR FURTHER WEST (IMPACTING
THE TWO ISLANDS TO A GREATER EXTENT). THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE
REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

ELEANOR IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS:
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A MONSOON FLOW
BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT, LOW SHEAR (FROM THE EAST FOR 10KT) AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING STEADILY UNTIL THURSDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE MASCAREIGNES
ARCHIPELAGO, BUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND SMALL. STRONG
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE THROUGH INTERNAL
MECHANISMS, IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME, AND THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE SUBJECT TO A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WILL BE REFINED
ACCORDINGLY.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
- ROUGH SEAS SWELLING UNTIL TUESDAY, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES.
MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FROM THURSDAY MORNING; GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY EVENING THEN FRIDAY WITH THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191936
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/7/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 56.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2024 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 20/02/2024 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 21/02/2024 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 21/02/2024 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 22/02/2024 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 22/02/2024 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85

120H: 24/02/2024 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
UN INCIDENT TECHNIQUE A CONDUIT A UN DECALAGE INTEMPESTIF DU NUMERO
DU BULLETIN CMRS PAR RAPPORT AU BMS. LE CMRS DE LA REUNION S'EXCUSE
POUR LA GENE OCCASIONNEE.

T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME SEMBLE S'ETRE LEGEREMENT
INTENSIFIE, A LA FAVEUR DU CYCLE NOCTURE, AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE QUI S'EST AMELIORE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
REFROIDIS TOUT EN S'A LARGISSANT ET EN PRESENTANT PLUS DE COURBURE
SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. NOTONS EGALEMENT UNE
CONSOLIDATION DU CA UR DE BASSES COUCHES EN COURS; CELA NOUS EST
MONTRE PAR LA SUCCESSION DES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES EN 37GHZ. LE CA UR
CONVECTIF D'ABORD ASSEZ LA CHE ET MAL DEFINI DE LA SSMIS-F17 DE 0240Z
OU ENCORE DE L'AMSR2 DE 0935Z, A LAISSE PLACE A UNE STRUCTURE DE
BASSES COUCHES UN PETIT PEU PLUS ROBUSTE AVEC LA SSMIS-F18 DE 1239Z
(ET SSMIS-F17 DE 1459Z), MONTRANT UN A IL DE COULEUR CYAN QUASI
CIRCULAIRE. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SUGGERENT DU
35KT DANS LA CIRCULATION. LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE
AMERICAINES DONNENT EGALEMENT DU CREDIT A CETTE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION. AU VU DE CES ELEMENTS, LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE A
18UTC DU NOM DE ELEANOR, PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN.

ELEANOR DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST CES
PROCHAINES 12 HEURES SOUS L'EFFET DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
PROCHE-EQUATORIAUX. PUIS DEMAIN MARDI, IL DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE,
FREINE PAR LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST SE PROLONGEANT AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, CE QUI LUI FERA PRENDRE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD
MARDI PUIS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST MERCREDI EN LE FAISANT PASSER AUX ABORDS
DE SAINT-BRANDON MERCREDI EN MATINEE. SA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE, QUI
DEVRAIT L'AMENER PRES DES ILES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION ET MAURICE),
SERA ETROITEMENT LIEE A LA PUISSANCE DE CETTE DORSALE JEUDI OU
VENDREDI, AINSI QUE SON INTERACTION AVEC UN THALWEG SUBTROPICAL PLUS
AU SUD-OUEST. SUR CE POINT, LES GUIDANCES ENSEMBLISTES ET
DETERMINISTES RESTENT TOUJOURS TRES DISPERSEES SUR LE SCENARIO A
TENIR, CE QUI SE CONCRETISE PAR UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE AU-DELA DE 48 HEURES. EN SE BASANT SUR LES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT GFS ET IFS, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS A ETE
REACTUALISEE, LA FAISANT DAVANTAGE PASSER UN PEU PLUS A L'EST DE
L'ILE MAURICE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. L'INCERTITUDE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTANT IMPORTANTE A
PARTIR DE J+3, IL FAUDRA RESTER PRUDENT SUR UNE EVENTUELLE
MODIFICATION DE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS A L'EST (EPARGANT LA REUNION) OU
PLUS A L'OUEST (IMPACTANT ALORS DAVANTAGE LES DEUX ILES). LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SERA AFFINEE AU FIL DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

ELEANOR BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
: UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN CONTENU EN HUMIDITE IMPORTANT EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES AVEC UN
FLUX DE MOUSSON DEVENANT PLUS CONVERGENT, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT (DE
SECTEUR EST POUR 10KT) AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CE
QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE POURSUIVRE UNE INTENSIFICATION
REGULIERE JUSQU'A JEUDI SUR SA ROUTE EN DIRECTION DES GRANDES
MASCAREIGNES, A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST
EN MOYENNE PROPOSPHERE POURRAIT CAUSER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
ACCOMPAGNEE D'UNE LEGERE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN DEBUT DE
WEEK-END PROCHAIN. IL EST A NOTER QUE LE SYSTEME EST COMPACT ET DE
PETITE TAILLE. DE FORTES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE SONT DONC POSSIBLES
PAR DES MECANISMES INTERNES, DANS UN COURT LAPS DE TEMPS, ET DONC
DIFFICILEMENT PREVISIBLES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST DONC
EMPREINTE D'UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE AU COURS DE CES PROCHAINS JOURS,
ET SERA AFFINEE EN CONSEQUENCE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT MARDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A
MERCREDI SOIR. POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE
MERCREDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 150 MM DANS LES 72 HEURES.
- MER FORTE GROSSISSANT JUSQU'A MARDI DONNANT DES VAGUES DE 4 A 5
METRES, AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR AVEC
L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.

ILE MAURICE :
- PROBABLES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT JEUDI EN JOURNEE. POSSIBLES
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 150MM EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 5M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ; AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE
JEUDI SOIR PUIS VENDREDI AVEC L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191850 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/02/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 56.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 06 UTC:
14.1 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
14.8 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=