Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BELAL-24
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240119012030
2024011900 05S BELAL 014 02 305 05 SATL 030
T000 233S 0646E 035 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 235S 0636E 030
T024 240S 0624E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 64.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 64.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 64.3E.
19JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 995
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011718 237S 644E 45
0524011800 239S 650E 45
0524011806 241S 653E 45
0524011812 239S 656E 45
0524011818 236S 651E 35
0524011900 233S 646E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 64.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 64.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 64.3E. 19JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190024
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/2/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 64.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

24H: 20/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 20/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMETALES
DEFAVORABLES (CISAILLEMENT DE VENTS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC ET EAUX MOINS CHAUDES) ONT ETE FATALES AU SYSTEME BELAL.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DE 2031Z MET EN EVIDENCE L'ABSENCE D'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DU CENTRE AINSI QU'UN OEIL OUVERT AU NORD ET AU
SUD. SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE, SEUL UN VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES EST
ENCORE VISIBLE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC RETROGRADE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE 30KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES FLUX
DIRECTEURS PILOTANT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL SONT MAINTENANT DAVANTAGE
EN BASSES COUCHES (850HPA). LE SYSTEME VA DONC SE DIRIGER VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE PUIS VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE
VERS L'EST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, BELAL VA CONTINUER A SE COMBLER
PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SANS PREVISION DE
REINTENSIFICATION.

BELAL NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/2/20232024
1.A REMNANT LOW 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 64.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND COOLER WATERS)
HAVE BEEN FATAL TO THE BELAL SYSTEM. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 2031Z
SHOWS THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER AND AN
OPEN EYE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, ONLY A
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL VISIBLE. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE RETURNED
TO THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING
FLOWS DRIVING BELAL'S TRAJECTORY ARE NOW MORE IN THE LOWER LAYERS
(850HPA). THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE HEAD WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THIS
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BELAL WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN GRADUALLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FORECAST.

BELAL POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190001
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 2 (BELAL) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 64.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
23.7 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

24H, VALID 2024/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
24.3 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE SECURITE SHIPPING BULLETIN
FOR METAREA VIII(S) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES OF
MAURITIUS (FQIO25 FIMP).=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 65.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.7 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 70 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
23.9 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240118133538
2024011812 05S BELAL 013 02 055 03 SATL 025
T000 239S 0656E 045 R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 237S 0650E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 238S 0639E 035 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 245S 0627E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 65.5E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z AND 191500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011718 237S 644E 45
0524011800 239S 650E 45
0524011806 241S 653E 45
0524011812 239S 656E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 65.5E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 992 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181223
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 66.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
24.5 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 65.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 780 SW: 520 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 705 SW: 555 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 95

36H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 0

72H: 2024/01/21 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING, WITH
MORE SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND EVEN AN
EMERGING EYE PATTERN AROUND 06UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS GIVES A DT OVER 3.5, TENDING TOWARDS
4.0 ON THE LATEST IMAGES. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS THUS RISEN TO
50KT. THE SYSTEM'S SLOWDOWN IS WEAKER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

BELAL'S TRACK SHOULD REACH A TURNING POINT THIS THURSDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY COMPETING RIDGES.
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF
THIS U-TURN.

THE RECENT RENEWED INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TEMPORARY, AND A WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD RESUME ON THURSDAY EVENING. INDEED, THE WESTERLY SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG, WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INJECT DRY
AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, ESPECIALLY AS ITS MOVEMENT SLOWS AND THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL DECREASES. A RAPID WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH CONVECTION BEING EXPELLED EAST
OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING BELAL TO WEAKEN TO REMNANT LOW STAGE, WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS WEEK-END.

BELAL DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180638
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 65.7 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 780 SO: 520 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 80 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 705 SO: 555 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 55

24H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SO: 465 NO: 95

36H: 19/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 20/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 20/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 530 SO: 480 NO: 0

72H: 21/01/2024 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 530 SO: 480 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER CE MATIN
AVEC UNE CONVECTION PLUS SYMETRIQUE S'ENROULANT AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET
MEME L'APPARITION D'UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL VERS 06UTC. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE MOYENNEE SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES DONNE UN DT A
PLUS DE 3.5, TENDANT VERS 4.0 SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. L'INTENSITE
EST REMONTEE A 50KT. LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME EST
MOINS IMPORTANT QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL DEVRAIT ARRIVER CE JEUDI A UN POINT DE
REBROUSSEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
PILOTES PAR DES DORSALES EN COMPETITION ENTRE ELLES. LE MOUVEMENT
VERS L'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT CEDER LA PLACE A UN MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE, ET CE
D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIRA VENDREDI. IL Y A ENCORE UNE
ASSEZ FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE CE RECOURBEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE.

LE REGAIN D'INTENSITE SEMBLE TEMPORAIRE ET UNE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT REPRENDRE EN SOIREE DE JEUDI. EN EFFET, LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST RESTE MODERE A ASSEZ FORT, CE QUI DEVRAIT DE
NOUVEAU INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME, D'AUTANT QUE
SON MOUVEMENT RALENTIT ET QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST EN BAISSE.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE EST DONC PREVU A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI
A VENDREDI ET SURTOUT EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, AVEC UNE CONVECTION
REJETEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT BELAL A S'AFFAIBLIR AU STADE
DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SE COMBLANT PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI DIMANCHE.

BELAL NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180623
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 65.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 185 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 45
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
23.6 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 380 NM SW: 300 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240118013555
2024011800 05S BELAL 012 02 050 05 SATL 050
T000 240S 0649E 045 R034 145 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 239S 0651E 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 238S 0645E 040 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 241S 0634E 035
T048 245S 0623E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 24.0S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.8S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 64.9E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011718 243S 645E 45
0524011800 240S 649E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 24.0S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.8S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 64.9E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 992 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 64.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 795 SW: 740 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110

24H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 120

36H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2024/01/21 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY
RETURNED UNDER THE CONVECTION, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
THAT PICKED UP AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT, DESPITE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ALOFT THAT ARE NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE INTEGRITY OF
BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN. IN FACT, ON ANALYSIS, THE SYSTEM IS ENDURING
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC DEEP SHEAR (27 KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA). THIS SHEAR IS EVIDENCED BY THE F-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2249 UTC, WHICH SHOWS A MUCH LARGER PHASE SHIFT
THAN THAT DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS RSMC BULLETIN, I.E. A SHIFT OF
ALMOST 50 NM BETWEEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW LAYERS (37GHZ) AND THE
CENTER OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (89GHZ). THIS LATEST DATA MAKES THE
SYSTEM'S POSITION MORE RELIABLE, GIVEN THE LACK OF INFORMATION
OVERNIGHT. THE WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED THANKS TO THE
PARTIAL PASS OF THE ASCAT AT 1732Z. BELAL'S INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM AMERICAN AND RSMC
DATA, POINTING TO A CI OF 3.0- AND THEREFORE GALE FORCE WINDS, OF THE
ORDER OF 40 KT IN MEAN WINDS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA HAVE BEEN
PLUNGING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW. THE SATCON HAS BEEN SHOWING 3.5-
SINCE 2030Z, BUT RECENT A(I)DT DATA SKEW THE CI MORE TOWARDS 2.5+.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, BELAL IS BEING STEERED BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, FORCING IT TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS
UNTIL TOMORROW, BUT SLOWED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEN, DUE TO
ITS WEAKENING, THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BE RESUMED AT LOWER LEVELS
(LOWER TROPOSPHERE) ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, BELAL IS SET TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
SOUTH-WEST ON FRIDAY, ACCELERATING ITS COURSE AND FILLING IN. MODELS
REMAIN WIDELY DISPERSED, SUGGESTING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S CURVATURE AND FINAL TRACK.

PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROPIC OF CAPRICORN, BELAL WILL ENCOUNTER
MUCH LESS OHC THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
WEAKENING, IN ADDITION TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR THAT WILL INJECT MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM. BELAL'S
INTESITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THIS CONTEXT. THIS WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, CONVECTION WILL BE
PUSHED FAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, TAKING BELAL FROM A
FILLING DEPRESSION TO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/2/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 64.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 795 SO: 740 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 110

24H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 120

36H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 20/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

60H: 20/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

72H: 21/01/2024 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 295 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SEMBLE A
TRE REVENU TEMPORAIREMENT SOUS LA CONVECTION, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
CONVECTION QUI A REPRIS DE PLUS BELLE AU COURS DE LA NUIT, ET CE,
MALGRA DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES EN ALTITUDE, PAS FRANCHEMENT
FAVORABLES POUR L'INTEGRITA DE LA CONFIGURAION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL. EN
EFFET, A L'ANALYSE, LE SYSTEME ENDURE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR OUEST, MODERE A FORT (27 KT SELON LES
DONNEES DU CIMSS). CE CISAILLEMENT EST MIS EN EVIDENCE PAR L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDE F-18 DE 2249 UTC QUI PRESENTE UN DEPHASE BIEN PLUS
IMPORTANT QUE CELUI DECRIT LORS DU PRECEDENT BULLETIN CMRS; A SAVOIR
UN DECALAGE DE PRES DE 50 MN ENTRE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
(37GHZ) ET LE CENTRE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE (89GHZ). CETTE DERNIERE
DONNEE PERMET DE FIABILISER LA POSITION DU SYSTEME, ETANT DONNEE LE
PEU D'INFORMATION PERCUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT
ONT ETE REMISE A JOUR GRACE A LA PASSE PARTIELLE DE L'ASCAT DE
1732Z. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DE BELAL EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS
DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DES DONNEES AMERICAINES ET CELLE DU CMRS,
POINTANT UN CI DE 3.0- ET DONC DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT, DE
L'ORDRE DE 40 KT EN VENTS MOYENS. LES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
PLONGENT MAINTNANT DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES. LE SATCON PRESENTE DU 3.5-
DEPUIS 2030Z MAIS LES DONNEES RECENTES DE L'A(I)DT BIAISENT DAVANTAGE
LE CI VERS DU 2.5+.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, BELAL EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE LUI IMPOSANT UN DEPLACEMENT LENT VERS LE NORD-EST
JUSQU'A DEMAIN, MAIS RALENTI PAR UN FLUX DE NORD PRA SENT SUR LA
BORDURE OUEST D'UNE AUTRE DORSALE SITUA E A L'EST IMMEDIAT DU
SYSTEME. PUIS EN RAISON DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS
DEVRAIT A TRE REPRIS A DES NIVEAUX INFERIEURS (BASSE TROPOSPHERE) EN
BORDURE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. AINSI BELAL
DEVRAIT ACCUSER VENDREDI UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN
ACCELERANT SA COURSE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES
RESTENT IMPORTANTE, SUGGERANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
CHRONOLOGIE DU RECOURBEMENT ET DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME.

PASSANT AU SUD DU TROPIQUE DU CAPRICORNE, BELAL VA RENCONTRER DES
EAUX NETTEMENT MOINS ENERGETIQUES QUE LORS DES DERNIERS JOURS. CELA
VA CONTRIBUER A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN PLUS DU CISAILLEMENT
PERSISTANT QUI INJECTER DAVANTAGE D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME A
COURTE ECHEANCE. L'INTESITE DE BELAL FAIBLIRA DONC GRADUELLEMENT DANS
CE CONTEXTE. CET AFFAIBLESSEMENT SE POURSUIVRA DANS LA JOURNEE DE
JEUDI. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LA CONVECTION SERA REJETEE LOIN A L'EST
DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, CONDUISANT BELAL AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180015
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 64.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 185 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 680 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 430 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
23.6 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
23.5 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171905
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 64.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 535 SW: 490 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110

24H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0

36H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND
BELAL IS UNDER A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
GIVEN FOR 19 KT BY THE LATEST CIMSS DATA, BUT IS REDUCED BY THE
SYSTEM'S EASTWARD MOVEMENT AVERAGINGB AT 5KT. THE 1137Z SSMIS F18
MICROWAVE SWATH REVEALS A DEPHASING SHIFT OF AROUND 20 MINUTES
BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER (37 GHZ) AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTER
(89GHZ), IN A WEST-EAST DIRECTION. CONVECTIVE PUFFS HAVE FLARED UP
AGAIN IN THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SINCE 15Z, WITH A CONVECTIVE
BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ADOPTING A SLIGHT CURVATURE. THE
DVORAK FMEE ESTIMATE, IN SHEARED PATTERN, GIVES A DT OF 3.0-, IN LINE
WITH THE PT AND THE LATEST CIMSS OBJECTIVE AND AMERICAN SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. BELAL REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, BELAL IS BEING STEERED VERY TEMPORARILY BY THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS CAUSING IT TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARDS
UNTIL TOMORROW. THEN, AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS, LOW TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS
SHOULD TAKE OVER, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE.
THUS, BELAL SHOULD MAKE A SHORT TURN TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BEING DRAGGED RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WESTERLY AND THEN
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, WHILE FILLING IN. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT THE DISPERSION OF MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT,
SUGGESTING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION
OF THIS TURNAROUND.

PASSING SOUTH OF THE TROPIC OF CAPRICORN, BELAL IS ENCOUNTERING LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO ITS WEAKENING, IN ADDITION TO
THE PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL GRADUALLY INJECT A
SOURCE OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.
BELAL'S INTENSITY SHOULD NEVERTHELESS PEAK AT THE STORM STAGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN FROM TOMORROW EVENING, WITH ITS GENERAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION, IT SHOULD WEAKEN PERMANENTLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.
THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE LLC, LEADING BELAL
TO THE STAGE OF A FILLING LOW, THEN A REMNANT LOW.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER THREATENS INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171905
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/2/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.1 S / 64.4 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 535 SO: 490 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 110

24H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 390 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 20/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 20/01/2024 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT SENSIBLEMENT RECHAUFFES AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES ET BELAL SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLA E DE SECTEUR
OUEST-NORD-OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.
CE CISAILLEMENT EST DONNEE POUR 19 KT PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU
CIMSS, MINOREE TOUTEFOIS PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME EN DIRECTION
DE L'EST A 5KT EN MOYENNE. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F18 DE 1137Z,
POINTE UN DEPHASAGE ENTRE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES (37 GHZ)ET
CELUI DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE (89GHZ), DE L'ORDRE DE 20MN ENVIRON,
DANS LE SENS OUEST-EST. DES BOUFFEES CONVECTIVES ONT REPRIS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTEME DEPUIS 15Z, AVEC UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE DANS
LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ADOPTANT UNE LEGERE COURBURE. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK
FMEE, EN CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DONNE UN DT DE 3.0-, CONFORME AU PT
ET DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS ET SUBJECTIVES
AMERICAINES. BELAL RESTE DONC AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, BELAL EST PILOTE TRES TEMPORAIREMENT PAR LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE PROCHE EQUATORIALE QUI LUI IMPRIME UN DEPLACEMENT
LENT VERS L'EST JUSQU'A DEMAIN. PUIS EN RAISON DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIENTT
PRENDRE LE RELAIS, EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE DORSALE DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. AINSI BELAL DEVRAIT ACCUSER DEMAIN APRES-MIDI UN COURT
VIRAGE VERS LE NORD, AVANT D'A TRE ENTRAINE ENSUITE RAPIDEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST PUIS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, TOUT EN SE
COMBLANT. IL EST IMPORTANT DE SOULIGNER QUE LA DISPERSION DES MODELES
RESTENT IMPORTANTE, SUGGERANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
CHRONOLOGIE ET LA POSITION DE CE REBROUSSEMENT.

PASSANT AU SUD DU TROPIQUE DU CAPRICORNE, BELAL RENCONTRE DES EAUX DE
SURFACE NETTEMENT MOINS ENERGETIQUES QUE LES JOURS PRECEDENTS. CELA
CONTRIBUE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN PLUS DU CISAILLEMENT PERSISTANT
QUI VA INJECTER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE SOURCE D'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU
SYSTEME.
L'INTENSITE DE BELAL DEVRAIT MALGRE TOUT PLAFONNER AU STADE DE
TEMPETE DANS LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, PUIS A COMPTER DE DEMAIN SOIR,
AVEC SA DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST, IL DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
DURABLEMENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI.LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE SERA
REJETEE LOIN DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, CONDUISANT AINSI BELAL AU
STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT, PUIS RESIDUELLE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171819
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 64.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 165 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 265 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
24.1 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
23.7 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240117131814
2024011712 05S BELAL 011 02 100 06 SATL 060
T000 242S 0636E 050 R050 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 105 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 242S 0648E 050 R050 000 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 241S 0647E 045 R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 239S 0641E 035 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 243S 0629E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.2S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.1S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.3S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 63.9E.
17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011706 241S 630E 50
0524011706 241S 630E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.2S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.1S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.3S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 63.9E.
17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 63.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 120

24H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 85

48H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, AND THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERGOING AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. BASED ON
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BELAL IS DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, FORCING IT TO MOVE
EASTWARDS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS. THEN DURING THE NIGHT, THE SYSTEM
FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE CENTERS OF ACTION ARE LITTLE
MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL. ITS MOVEMENT SPEED THEN
DECREASES. AS BELAL'S INTENSITY WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY
MIGRATES TOWARDS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND REVERSES. THE TRACK TURNS
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE, LEAVING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE REVERSAL.

BELAL'S INTENSITY IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR TOWARDS THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY,
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS. ON FRIDAY, CONVECTION
WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, TAKING BELAL FROM A FILLING LOW TO A
REMNANT LOW.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER THREATENS INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/2/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 63.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 315 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 120

24H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 85

48H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 20/01/2024 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE BELAL SE
POURSUIT. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST LIMITEE AU DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST
ET LE SYSTEME SUBIT UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSHERE. EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, LES
VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 45KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IL Y A PEU D'EVOLUTION PAR RAPPORT A LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE. BELAL EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE LUI
IMPOSANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST ENCORE PENDANT 12H. ENSUITE COURS
DE NUIT, LE SYSTEME SE RETROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DONT LES
CENTRES D'ACTION SONT PEU MARQUES ET ASSEZ DISTANTS DE BELAL. SA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DIMINUE ALORS. CONJOINTEMENT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE L'INTENSITE DE BELAL, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR MIGRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LA BASSE TROPOSPHERE ET S'INVERSE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE REBROUSSE CHEMIN VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ IMPORTANTE LAISSANT UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU REBROUSSEMENT.

L'INTESITE DE BELAL FAIBLIT GRADUELLEMENT AVEC L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
VERS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME QUI EST RETROGRADE AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE. CET AFFAIBLESSEMENT SE POURSUIVRA DANS LA JOURNEE
DE JEUDI OA LE SYSTEME RENCONTRERA DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. VENDREDI,
LA CONVECTION SERA QUASI INEXISTANTE CONDUISANT BELAL AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 63.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
24.1 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 63.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100

36H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 55

48H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 155

60H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, AND THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERGOING AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSHERE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
AS SHOWN BY THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0057Z AND 0133Z. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, BELAL IS DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
WHICH THEN FORCES IT TO MOVE EASTWARDS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS. THEN, AT
THE END OF THE DAY, THE SYSTEM FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE
CENTERS OF ACTION ARE LITTLE MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL.
THIS RESULTS IN A CONTEST WITHOUT A CLEAR DIRECTIONAL FLOW, SLOWING
DOWN THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING
OF BELAL'S INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES TOWARDS
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, REVERSING THE STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK REVERTS
TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT AT THESE TIMES (THURSDAY),
THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE LARGE, LEAVING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PHILOSOPHY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT
WITH A MORE EASTERLY TURN GIVEN THE CURRENT DISPLACEMENT.
BELAL'S MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR SOMEWHAT
LIMITS ITS DESTRUCTIVE EFFECT, ALLOWING IT TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR.
THEREAFTER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND, HELPED BY
THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR, THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM
TONIGHT ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE MUCH MORE MARKED BY THURSDAY,
AS BELAL MOVES BACK OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO DRIER AIR. IN THIS
CONTEXT, CONVECTION WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, TAKING BELAL FROM A
FILLING DEPRESSION TO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER THREATENS INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 63.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SO: 305 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SO: 305 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140

24H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 100

36H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 55

48H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 155

60H: 19/01/2024 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 20/01/2024 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE BELAL SE
POURSUIT. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST LIMITEE AU DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST ET
LE SYSTEME SUBIT UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSHERE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST COMME LE MONTRENT LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0057Z ET
DE 0133Z. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 50KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, BELAL EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE
PUIS IMPOSANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST ENCORE PENDANT 12H. ENSUITE
EN FIN DE JOURNEE LE SYSTEME SE RETROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DONT
LES CENTRES D'ACTION SONT PEU MARQUES ET ASSEZ DISTANTS DE BELAL.
CELA CONFERE UN CONTESTE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR BIEN MARQUE RALENTISSANT
AINSI SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. CONJOINTEMENT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE L'INTENSITE DE BELAL, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR MIGRE PROGRESSIVE VERS LA
BASSE TROPOSPHERE INVERSANT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA TRAJECTOIRE
REBROUSSE CHEMIN VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST. MAIS A CES ECHEANCES
(JEUDI) LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ IMPORTANTE LAISSANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU REBROUSSEMENT. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS RESTE DANS LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE QUE LA
PRECEDENTE MAIS AVEC UN VIRAGE PLUS A L'EST ETANT DONNE LE
DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE BELAL, DANS LA MEME DIRECTION QUE LE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST LIMITE UN PEU L'EFFET DESTRUCTURANT ET PERMET A BELAL DE
CONSERVER TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENCORE
QUELQUES HEURES MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC. PAR LA SUITE, CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT GAGNER EN EFFICACITE ET AIDE PAR L'INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC PLUS FRANCHE, L'INTENSITE VA FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT A PARTIR
DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. CET AFFAIBLESSEMENT SERA BIEN PLUS MARQUE A
ECHEANCE DE JEUDI LORS DU REBROUSSEMENT PLACANT BELAL SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FROIDES ET L'AMENANT DANS UN AIR SEC PLUS PRESENT. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, LA CONVECTION SERA QUASI INEXISTANTE CONDUISANT BELAL AU
STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170619
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 63.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
24.1 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.2S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.6S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.6S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.5S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.6S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 62.9E.
17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
170000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS
17 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240117013230
2024011700 05S BELAL 010 02 140 14 SATL 060
T000 242S 0626E 055 R050 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 105 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 246S 0638E 055 R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 246S 0650E 050 R050 000 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 245S 0654E 045 R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 244S 0647E 040 R034 060 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 256S 0623E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.2S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.6S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.6S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.5S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.6S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 62.9E.
17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
170000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS
17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 232S 616E 55
0524011618 232S 616E 55
0524011700 242S 626E 55
0524011700 242S 626E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170047
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 62.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110

36H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 95

60H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN GREATLY
DISRUPTED BY AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. BEGUN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN, THE DRY AIR HAS CUT THE SPIRAL
BAND DISSOCIATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER FROM THE REST
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS AIR IS CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF BELAL, GREATLY DIMINISHING THE
LOGARITHMIC SPIRAL. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, IT IS DIFFICULT TO GIVE A
T-VALUE GREATER THAN 3, BUT THE CI STILL ALLOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 55KT, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. THE GCOM PASS OF 2043UTC
FOLLOWED BY THE F18 OF 2309UTC CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR WITH
AN OPENING CORE, AS DOES THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK.

APART FROM A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN THE SHORT TERM, LITTLE CHANGE IN
TERMS OF TRACK. BELAL CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS POSITION, GIVING IT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRACK FOR 18 HOURS. THEN, AT THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE
SYSTEM FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE CENTERS OF ACTION ARE
LITTLE MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL. AS A RESULT, THERE WAS NO
CLEAR DIRECTIONAL FLOW, SLOWING THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING OF BELAL'S INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW
GRADUALLY MIGRATES TOWARDS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, REVERSING THE
STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK REVERTS TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BUT AT THESE TIMES (THURSDAY), THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS IS STILL QUITE LARGE, LEAVING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE REVERSAL. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST MAINTAINS A
MORE LASTING REVERSAL, LEAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BELAL'S DISPLACEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR
SOMEWHAT LIMITS ITS DESTRUCTIVE EFFECT, ALLOWING IT TO TEMPORARILY
RETAIN ITS STRONG TROPICAL STORM STATUS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR. THEREAFTER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND, HELPED
BY THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR, THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THIS WEAKENING WILL BE MUCH MORE MARKED BY THURSDAY, AS BELAL MOVES
BACK ONTO COLDER WATERS AND INTO DRIER AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT,
CONVECTION WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING BELAL TO THE STAGE OF
A FILLING DEPRESSION AND THEN A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- INCREASE IN CYCLONIC SWELL TO LESS THAN 3M.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170047
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.5 S / 62.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45

24H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110

36H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 95

60H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 20/01/2024 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL A
ETE GRANDEMENT PERTURBEE PAR UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. COMMENCEE PEU DE TEMPS AVANT LE BULLETIN PRECEDENT,
L'AIR SEC EST VENU COUPER LA BANDE SPIRALE DISSOCIANT L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE PROCHE DU CENTRE DU RESTE DU SYSTEME. ACTUELLEMENT CET AIR
LIMITE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-OUEST DE BELAL
DIMINUANT GRANDEMENT LA SPIRALE LOGARITHMIQUE. DANS CETTE
CONFIGURATION, IL EST DIFFICILE DE DONNER UNE VALEUR EN T SUPERIEURE
A 3 MAIS LE CI PERMET DE CONSERVER ENCORE DES VENT MAXIMAUX DE
L'ORDRE DE 55KT MAIS PLUS POUR LONGTEMPS. LA PASSE GCOM DE 2043UTC
SUIVIE DE LA F18 DE 2309UTC CONFIRME CETTE PRESENCE D'AIR SEC AVEC UN
COEUR S'OUVRANT TOUT COMME L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME EN PRENANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EST-SUD-EST.

A PART UNE LEGERE ACCELERATION SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCE, PEU DE
CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE. BELAL CONTINUE D'ETRE PILOTEE PAR
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE A L'EST DE SA POSITION LUI DONNANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PENDANT 18H. ENSUITE EN FIN DE JOURNEE
DE MERCREDI LE SYSTEME SE RETROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DONT LES
CENTRES D'ACTION SONT PEU MARQUES ET ASSEZ DISTANTS DE BELAL. CELA
CONFERE UN CONTESTE SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR BIEN MARQUE RALENTISSANT
AINSI SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. CONJOINTEMENT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE L'INTENSITE DE BELAL, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR MIGRE PROGRESSIVE VERS LA
BASSE TROPOSPHERE INVERSANT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA TRAJECTOIRE
REBROUSSE CHEMIN VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST. MAIS A CES ECHEANCES
(JEUDI) LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ IMPORTANTE LAISSANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU REBROUSSEMENT. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS MAINTIENT UN REBROUSSEMENT PLUS DURABLE
LAISSANT UNE DIRECTION UN PEU PLUS SUD-OUEST EN FIN DE PERIODE.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE BELAL, DANS LA MEME DIRECTION QUE LE CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST LIMITE UN PEU L'EFFET DESTRUCTURANT ET PERMET A BELAL DE
CONSERVER TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE MALGRE
LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC. PAR LA SUITE, CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT GAGNER
EN EFFICACITE ET AIDE PAR L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PLUS FRANCHE,
L'INTENSITE VA FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT. CETTE AFFAIBLESSEMENT SERA BIEN
PLUS MARQUE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI LORS DU REBROUSSEMENT PLACANT BELAL
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET L'AMENANT DANS UN AIR SEC PLUS PRESENT.
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA CONVECTION SERA QUASI INEXISTANTE CONDUISANT
BELAL AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR RODRIGUES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
- AUGMENTATION DE LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE QUI NE DEPASSE PAS LES 3M.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170003
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 62.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 145
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
24.0 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 61.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100

36H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95

60H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95

72H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=4.0 CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED. FROM A
SHEARED CONFIGURATION, WE ARE NOW IN A BANDED OR EVEN CDO
CONFIGURATION WITH A STRUCTURE OF ADDITIONAL BANDS. IN THE LATTER
CONFIGURATION, HOWEVER, THE CENTER WOULD BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH ON THE
EDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION COULD REFLECT AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
PENETRATING CLOSE TO THE CENTER. COMBINING THE DIFFERENT SOURCES OF
DVORAK ANALYSIS, WE COULD BE ON A 3.5+ ANALYSIS, BUT DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, THE RSMC PREFERS TO MAKE
A PT ANALYSIS AT 4.0 LEADING TO A CI OF 4.0-. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
AT 1700UTC PROVIDES MAXIMUM VALUES AT 50KT. IN THIS CONTEXT OF RECENT
INTENSIFICATION, IT CAN BE ESTIMATED THAT THE ESTIMATED VALUES WOULD
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, CONFIRMING THE CHOICE OF A CI AT 4.0- WITH
ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 55KT.

WITH NO CHANGE IN TRACK, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, BELAL CONTINUES
TO BE DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS
POSITION: A SHORT-TERM EASTERLY THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK IS
MAINTAINED FOR ALMOST 18-24H. THEN, AT THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE CENTERS OF
ACTION ARE LITTLE MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL. AS A RESULT,
THERE WAS NO CLEAR DIRECTIONAL FLOW, WHICH SLOWED THE SYSTEM'S SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING OF BELAL'S INTENSITY,
THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES TOWARDS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
REVERSING THE STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK REVERTS TO THE WEST AND THEN
TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT AT THESE TIMES (THURSDAY), THE DISPERSION OF
THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE LARGE, LEAVING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE REVERSAL. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR
A MORE LASTING REVERSAL, LEAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BELAL IS STILL BENEFITING FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
ENABLING IT TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS. HOWEVER, BELAL'S MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
WESTERLY SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING ITS DESTRUCTURING EFFECT, LEAVING
A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER,
THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND, AIDED BY AN INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE
MUCH MORE MARKED BY THURSDAY, AS BELAL MOVES BACK ONTO COLDER WATERS
AND INTO DRIER AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, CONVECTION WILL BE ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT, LEADING BELAL TO THE STAGE OF A FILLING DEPRESSION AND
THEN A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- INCREASE IN CYCLONIC SWELL TO LESS THAN 3M.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161839
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 61.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 100

36H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 95

60H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95

72H: 19/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=4 CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSES DE BELAL
EVOLUE. D'UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE NOUS SOMMES MAINTENANT EN
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE VOIRE EN CDO AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE BANDES
SUPPLEMENTAIRE. DANS CETTE DERNIERE CONFIGURATION, LE CENTRE SERAIT
TOUTEFOIS UN PEU TROP EN BORDURE. EN COMBINANT LES DIFFERENTES
SOURCES D'ANALYSE DVORAK, ON POURRAIT ETRE SUR UNE ANALYSE DE 3.5+
MAIS DU FAIT DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES FORTES A PROXIMITE DU
CENTRE, LE CMRS PREFERE FAIRE UNE ANALYSE EN PT A 4.0 AMEMANT UN CI
DE 4.0-. LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 1700UTC FOURNIE DES VALEURS
MAXIMALES A 50KT. DANS CE CONTEXTE D'INTENSIFICATION RECENTE, ON PEUT
ESTIMER QUE LES VALEURS ESTIMEES SERAIENT LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURES
CONFORTANT LE CHOIX D'UN CI A 4.0- AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE
DE 55KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTORIE DU MOINS A COURTE ECHEANCE,
BELAL CONTINUE D'ETRE PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE A L'EST DE SA
POSITION : UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST PUIS EST-SUD-EST A COURT TERME
SE MAINTIENT PRES DE 18-24H. ENSUITE EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE MERCREDI LE
SYSTEME SE RETROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DONT LES CENTRES D'ACTION
SONT PEU MARQUES ET ASSEZ DISTANTS DE BELAL. CELA CONFERE UN CONTESTE
SANS FLUX DIRECTEUR BIEN MARQUE RALENTISSANT AINSI SA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. CONJOINTEMENT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE L'INTENSITE DE
BELAL, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR MIGRE PROGRESSIVE VERS LA BASSE TROPOSPHERE
INVERSANT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA TRAJECTOIRE REBROUSSE CHEMIN VERS
L'OUEST PUIS LE SUD-OUEST. MAIS A CES ECHEANCES (JEUDI) LA DISPERSION
DES MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ IMPORTANTE LAISSANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU REBROUSSEMENT. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS
OPTE POUR UN REBROUSSEMENT PLUS DURABLE LAISSANT UNE DIRECTION UN PEU
PLUS SUD-OUEST EN FIN DE PERIODE.

BELAL BENEFICIE ENCORE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MIXTES LUI
PERMETTANT DE SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS
LES 18-24H. LE DEPLACEMENT DE BELAL, DANS LA MEME DIRECTION QUE LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIMITE CEPENDANT UN PEU SON EFFET DESTRUCTURANT
ET LAISSE AINSI UN LEGER POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION A COURTE
ECHEANCE. PAR LA SUITE, CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT GAGNER EN EFFICACITE
ET AIDE PAR UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PLUS FRANCHE, L'INTENSITE VA
FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT. CETTE AFFAIBLESSEMENT SERA BIEN PLUS MARQUE A
ECHEANCE DE JEUDI LORS DU REBROUSSEMENT PLACANT BELAL SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FROIDES ET L'AMENANT DANS UN AIR SEC PLUS PRESENT. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, LA CONVECTION SERA QUASI INEXISTANTE CONDUISANT BELAL AU
STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR RODRIGUES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
- AUGMENTATION DE LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE QUI NE DEPASSE PAS LES 3M.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161806
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 61.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 180NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
23.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
23.9 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240116133347
2024011612 05S BELAL 009 02 110 08 SATL 060
T000 231S 0598E 050 R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 234S 0616E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 237S 0634E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 239S 0644E 045 R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 239S 0649E 040 R034 050 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 252S 0624E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.7S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.9S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.2S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 60.2E.
16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 228S 590E 50
0524011606 228S 590E 50
0524011612 231S 598E 50
0524011612 231S 598E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.7S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.9S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.2S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 60.2E.
16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 60.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100

36H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75

48H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2024/01/21 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

BELAL PRESENTS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN, WHOSE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CENTER IS NOW OUTSIDE THE MAIN CONVECTION
AND CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WEST-NORTH-WEST SHEAR IS CONFIRMED BY THE 09H46Z
GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A 30-MINUTE SHIFT BETWEEN THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTER. NOTE ALSO THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVATION (MIMIC TPW CIMSS) SHOWS AN INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH. FINALLY, A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 05H26Z
ALLOWED US TO UPDATE THE WIND EXTENSIONS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA, AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES, ARE IN THE ORDER OF 50KT. GIVEN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
WHICH SHOWS A HIGHLY DEGRADED WALL, THIS INTENSITY VALUE WILL
THEREFORE BE ADOPTED, AND BELAL WILL KEEP ITS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.

BELAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS
POSITION, IMPOSING A SHORT-TERM EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THEN, FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL FIND ITSELF IN A BAROMETRIC FLAT LOW,
SUBJECT TO CONTRACTIONARY STEERING FLOWS THAT WILL REDUCE ITS SPEED.
RSMC PREDICTION IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED BEYOND WEDNESDAY
EVENING, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S FINAL
TRACK.

BELAL STILL BENEFITS FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH ALLOW
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS,
BUT ITS OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC, AND
ITS ALTITUDE IS BECOMING MORE CONTRARY. THE MOVE OF BELAL, IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERN SHEAR, IS STILL LIMITING ITS
DESTRUCTIVE EFFECT. LATER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE
AND DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN CLOSE TO THE CENTER, REDUCING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BECOME A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE UNFAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SUSTAINED WEAKENING.


EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
REUNION:
- A STRONG SEA STATE IS STILL PRESENT CLOSE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS, WITH WAVES APPROACHING 3/4M, BUT REGULARLY DECREASING UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING.
MAURITIUS:
- WAVES CLOSE TO 3-4M, DECREASING REGULARLY UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161253
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 60.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45

24H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100

36H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 75

48H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2024 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 21/01/2024 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

BELAL PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE, DONT LA
CONVECTION S'EST AFFAIBLIE SUR LES 24 DERNIERES HEURES. LE CENTRE EST
DESORMAIS EN DEHORS DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE ET BIEN DISCERNABLE
DANS LES NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES SUR L'IMAGE SATELLITE VISIBLE. LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST CONFIRME PAR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
GCOM DE 09H46Z SUR LAQUELLE ON PEUT OBSERVER UN DECALAGE DE 30MN
ENTRE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ET CELUI DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
NOTONS EGALEMENT QUE L'OBSERVATION EN EAU PRECIPITABLE (MIMIC TPW
CIMSS) NOUS MONTRE UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PAR LE NORD. ENFIN UNE
PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE A 05H26Z A PERMIS DE REMETTRE A JOUR LES
EXTENSIONS DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LES DERNIERES DONNEES
SATELLITAIRES AINSI QUE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES SONT
DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT. AU VU DE L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE QUI MONTRE UN MUR
FORTEMENT DEGRADE, CETTE VALEUR D'INTENSITE SERA DONC RETENUE ET
BELAL CONSERVE SON STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

BELAL EST PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE D'ALTITUDE A L'EST DE SA POSITION
QUI LUI IMPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST A COURT TERME.
ENSUITE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI LE SYSTEME SE RETROUVERAIT DANS UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE, SOUMIS A DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRACTICTOIRES QUI LUI
FERAIENT REDUIRE SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS EST
BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE ENCORE FORTE AU DELA DE MERCREDI SOIR,
INDUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME.

BELAL BENEFICIE ENCORE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MIXTES LUI
PERMETTANT DE SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS
LES 24H, AVEC TOUTEFOIS UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVENANT DE MOINS EN
MOINS ENERGETIQUE ET UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DEVENANT PLUS
CONTRARIANTE. LE DEPLACEMENT DE BELAL, DANS LA MEME DIRECTION QUE LE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIMITE CEPENDANT UN PEU SON EFFET DESTRUCTURANT.
PAR LA SUITE CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT GAGNER EN EFFICACITE ET DE L'AIR
SEC DEVRAIT COMMENCER A S'INTRODUIRE PROCHE DU CENTRE, FAISANT
DIMINUER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME QUI PASSERA AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE. EN FIN DE SEMAINE LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
DEVIENNENT NETTEMENT PLUS DEFAVORABLES ET LE SYSTEME AMORCERA UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :
LA REUNION :
- UN ETAT DE MER FORT EST ENCORE PRESENT A PROXIMITE DES COTES EST ET
SUD-EST, AVEC DES VAGUES AVOISINANT LES 3/4M, MAIS S'AMORTISSANT
REGULIEREMENT JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN.
MAURICE :
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 3-4M S'AMORTISSANT REGULIEREMENT JUSQU'JEUDI
SOIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161221
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 60.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 365NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING
UP TO 670NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.3 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 0

72H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100

120H: 2024/01/21 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=3.5 CI=4.5

BELAL PRESENTS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN, WHOSE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ON THE 01:48 F17 MICROWAVE IMAGERY, A 30NM
WESTWARD SHIFT CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CENTERS. AN ARC OF SHEAR IS ALSO VISIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ON
HRV IMAGERY.
FINALLY, OBSERVATION IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (MIMIC TPW CIMSS) SHOWS US
AN ATTEMPTED INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ALLOWS US TO DETERMINE AN INTENSITY OF 65KT BY INERTIA. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF
OTHER AGENCIES ARE WEAKER, IN THE ORDER OF 45-60KT, SO A COMPROMISE
WAS MADE TO DETERMINE AN AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY OF 55 KT, AND SO
BELAL IS DOWNGRADED TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

BELAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS
POSITION, IMPOSING A SHORT-TERM EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THEN, FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FLAT LOW, SUBJECT TO
CONTRACTIONARY STEERING FLOWS THAT WILL REDUCE ITS SPEED. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS STRONG BEYOND WEDNESDAY
EVENING, INDUCING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL TRACK.

BELAL IS STILL BENEFITING FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL
ENABLE IT TO REMAIN A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THURSDAY, WITH A
GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR ALOFT AND STILL-WARM SEA SURFACE WATERS,
DESPITE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. FROM THURSDAY, THIS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND DRY AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENTER CLOSE TO THE CENTER, REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BECOME A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AND THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE TO THE STAGE OF FILLING DEPRESSION
THEN RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
REUNION:
- A STRONG TO VERY STRONG SEA STATE IS STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING
NEAR THE EASTERN COASTS WITH WAVES APPROACHING 4M, BUT THE SWELL IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
MAURITIUS:
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4-5M THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160653
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.9 S / 58.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SO: 325 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 55

24H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 45

36H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

48H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 0

60H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2024 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100

120H: 21/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=3.5 CI=4.5

BELAL PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE, DONT LA
CONVECTION S'EST AFFAIBLIE SUR LES 24 DERNIERES HEURES. SUR
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE F17 DE 01H48 ON PEUT OBSERVER UN DECALAGE DE
30NM VERS L'OUEST ENTRE LES CENTRES DE BASSES COUCHES ET D'ALTITUDE.
UN ARC DE CISAILLEMENT EST PAR AILLEURS VISIBLE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME
SUR L'IMAGERIE HRV.
ENFIN L'OBSERVATION EN EAU PRECIPITABLE (MIMIC TPW CIMSS) NOUS MONTRE
UNE TENTATIVE D'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK
NOUS PERMET DE DETERMINER UNE INTENSITE DE 65KT PAR INERTIE.
CEPENDANT LES DERNIERES DONNEES SATELLITAIRES AINSI QUE LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DES AUTRES AGENCES SONT PLUS FAIBLES, DE
L'ORDRE DE 45-60KT, UN COMPROMIS A DONC ETE EFFECTUE POUR DETERMINER
UNE INTENSITE DE VENT MOYEN A 55 KT, ET DONC BELAL EST RETROGRADE AU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

BELAL EST PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE D'ALTITUDE A L'EST DE SA POSITION
QUI LUI IMPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST A COURT TERME.
ENSUITE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI LE SYSTEME SE RETROUVERAIT DANS UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE, SOUMIS A DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRACTICTOIRES QUI LUI
FERAIENT REDUIRE SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION CMRS EST
BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE FORTE AU DELA DE MERCREDI SOIR, INDUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME.

BELAL BENEFICIE ENCORE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES LUI PERMETTANT
DE SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSQU'A JEUDI,
AVEC UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION EN AIR HUMIDE ET DES EAUX DE SURFACE DE
LA MER ENCORE CHAUDES, MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FAIBLE A
MODERE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT GAGNER EN
EFFICACITE ET DE L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT COMMENCER A S'INTRODUIRE PROCHE DU
CENTRE, FAISANT DIMINUER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME QUI PASSERA AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. EN FIN DE SEMAINE LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT PLUS DEFAVORABLES ET LE SYSTEME
CONTINUERAIT DE REGRESSER AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :
LA REUNION :
- UN ETAT DE MER FORT A TRES FORT EST ENCORE PRESENT CE MATIN A
PROXIMITE DES COTES EST AVEC DES VAGUES AVOISINANT LES 4M, MAIS LA
HOULE DIMINUE PROGRESSIVEMENT.
MAURICE :
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4-5M CE MATIN DIMINUANT PROGRESSIVEMENT.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 160615
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 320NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING
UP TO 580NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
23.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240116015625
2024011600 05S BELAL 008 02 110 09 SATL 060
T000 221S 0578E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 228S 0599E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 232S 0619E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 234S 0635E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 232S 0642E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 231S 0628E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 237S 0617E 035 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 258S 0617E 035 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 57.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 57.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.8S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.2S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.4S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.2S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.8S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 58.3E.
16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 218S 569E 65
0524011518 218S 569E 65
0524011518 218S 569E 65
0524011600 221S 578E 65
0524011600 221S 578E 65
0524011600 221S 578E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 57.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 57.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.8S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.2S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.4S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.2S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.8S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 58.3E.
16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 58.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2024/01/21 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=4.5 CI=5.0

FOLLOWING THE 1445Z SAR OBSERVATION, BELAL'S INTENSITY AT 18Z HAS
BEEN REVISED UPWARDS TO 65KT.
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN ORGANIZED
INTO A CDO, WITH A CLEAR UPSURGE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION, THE 2137 ASMR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY VISIBLE,
ALBEIT SHREDDED, EYE. WITH THESE ELEMENTS, AS WELL AS THE ASCAT PASS
OF 1815Z, THE BELAL SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF 65KT.

BELAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. BY
MID-WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, IT IS MOVING EASTWARDS. THERE IS A STRONG DIVERGENCE BETWEEN
MODELS CONCERNING BELAL'S LONGER-TERM TRACK. THE CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWING DOWN OF THE MOVEMENT, A TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN A FURTHER MOVE TO THE WEST BEFORE PLUNGING INTO
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN. RSMC TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC
IFS MODEL, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS,
BUT THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHICH DOES NOT RULE
OUT A TURN TO THE NORTH (AS IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS).

BELAL IS STILL EVOLVING UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
ENABLING IT TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS (OR CLOSE TO IT)
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS BELAL'S TRAJECTORY SLOWS, IT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MORE WESTERLY SHEAR, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO INTRUDE AROUND
ITS CENTER. IT WOULD THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. DEPENDING ON ITS
LONGER-TERM TRACK, BELAL COULD GRADUALLY FILL IN. HOWEVER, SOME
SCENARIOS SUGGEST A REINTENSIFICATION WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICAL
DOMAIN. THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE RSMC.


EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :


REUNION:
- END OF NEAR GALE FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4M DROPPING.


MAURITIUS:
- END OF NEAR GALE FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4-5M, DECREASING WEDNESDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160055
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 58.1 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SO: 325 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 240 SO: 270 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 0

72H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2024 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 21/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=4.5 CI=5.0

SUITE A L'OBSERVATION SAR DE 1445Z L'INTENSITE DE BELAL A 18Z A ETE
REVUE A LA HAUSSE ET DONC MAINTENUE A 65KT.
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL
S'EST ORGANISEE EN CDO AVEC UN NET REGAIN DE CONVECTION TOUT AUTOUR
DU CENTRE. DE PLUS, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE ASMR2 DE 2137 MONTRE UN OEIL
BIEN VISIBLE BIEN QUE DECHIQUETE. AVEC CES ELEMENTS, AINSI QU'AVEC LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 1815Z, LE SYSTEME BELAL EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS DE 65KT.

BELAL POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST JUSQU'A MARDI SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST
DU SYSTEME. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT
A L'OUEST ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, IL SE DIRIGE VERS L'EST. IL
EXISTE UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE ENTRE LES MODELES CONCERNANT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE. LES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT,
UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS UN NOUVEAU DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST AVANT
DE PLONGER VERS LE DOMAINE EXTRA-TROPICAL. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE
RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE DU MODELE DETERMINISTE IFS EN PRENANT EN COMPTE
LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS MAIS IL EXISTE
ENCORE UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE N'EXCLUANT PAS UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD
(COMME DANS LES PRECEDENTS BULLETINS).

BELAL EVOLUE TOUJOURS DANS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES LUI PERMETTANT DE MAINTENIR LE STADE (OU PROCHE DU STADE)
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H. PUIS AVEC LE
RALENTISSEMENT DE SA TRAJECTOIRE BELAL DEVRAIT SUBIR DAVANTAGE DE
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST PERMETTANT L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AUTOUR DE SON
CENTRE. IL ENTAMERAIT ALORS UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF. SELON SA
TRAJECTOIRE A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, BELAL POURRAIT PETIT A PETIT SE
COMBLER. CEPENDANT DES SCENARIOS PROPOSENT UNE REINTENSIFICATION EN
RESTANT DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL. CE N'EST PAS LE SCENARIO PRIVILIGIE
PAR LE CMRS.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- FIN DU GRAND FRAIS POUR MARDI MATIN.
- VAGUES PROCHES DES 4M EN BAISSE.

MAURICE :
- FIN DU GRAND FRAIS EN MATINEE.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4-5M, DIMINUANT MERCREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 160020
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 58.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 25 NM IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.8 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 56.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY LOOSE, BUT THE TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED
SOMEWHAT, WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. MICOR-WAVE
SSMIS IMAGES FROM 1354 SHOW DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1730Z SHOWS A
WEAKENING OF THE MEAN WINDS. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, BELAL HAS BEEN RETRODASED TO THE STAGE
OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH 60KT WIND.

BELAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. IN
MID-WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, IT MOVES EASTWARDS. THEN MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE MOVEMENT AND A TURN TO THE NORTH. ON
LONGER TIME SCALES, THE CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS CONTINUE TO
MAKE TRAJECTORY PREDICTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND THE RSMC IS
CURRENTLY OPTING FOR A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRAJECTORY, WHICH MAY
CHANGE CONSIDERABLY.

AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM REUNION, BELAL RETURNS TO RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BUT SHOULD BE CONSTRAINED BY A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERLY SHEAR, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO APPROACH THE CENTER.
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, BELAL COULD WEAKEN
MORE MARKEDLY AND BEGIN TO FILL IN.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- END OF STORM FORCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. END OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 200-250MM IN 24H OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HEIGHTS AND IN THE ORDER OF 150-200MM IN 24H IN THE
SOUTH.
- WAVES AROUND 6M TONIGHT THEN CLOSE TO 4M TOMORROW.

MAURITIUS :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4-5M, WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.7 S / 56.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 16/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 0

120H: 20/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL
RESTE ASSEZ PEU COMPACTE MAIS LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
S'EST UN PEU REFROIDIE AVEC UN BURST DE CONVECTION PROCHE DU CENTRE.
LES IMAGES MICOR-ONDES SSMIS DE 1354 MONTRENT UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE
ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE QUART SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LA PASSE
ASCAT DE 1730Z MONTRE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS MOYENS. EN ACCORD
AVEC DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, BELAL EST
DONC RETRODRADE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE
60KT.

BELAL POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST JUSQU'A MARDI SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST
DU SYSTEME. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT
A L'OUEST ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, IL SE DIRIGE VERS L'EST. PUIS
DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT ET UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD. A PLUS LONGUES
ECHEANCES, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES CONTINUENT DE RENDRE
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE TRES INCERTAINE ET LE CMRS OPTE
ACTUELLEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST, QUI PEUT
BEAUCOUP EVOLUER.

EN S'ELOIGNANT DE LA REUNION, BELAL RETROUVE DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES RELATIVEMENT FAVORABLES MAIS DEVRAIT ETRE
CONSTRARIE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST PLUS MARQUE PERMETTANT A DE
L'AIR SEC DE SE RAPPROCHER DU CENTRE. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DONC PROGRESSIVEMENT DIMINUE. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, DEBUT DE WEEK-END,
BELAL POURRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT ET COMMENCER A SE COMBLER.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- FIN DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. FIN DE GRAND
FRAIS POUR MARDI MATIN.
- CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-250MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTEURS DU
SUD-EST ET DE L'ORDRE DE 150-200MM EN 24H DANS LE SUD.
- VAGUES AUTOUR DE 6M CETTE NUIT PUIS PROCHES DES 4M DEMAIN.

MAURICE :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4-5M, FAIBLISSANT MERCREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 151807
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 56.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
22.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.7 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240115134727
2024011512 05S BELAL 007 02 130 08 SATL 045
T000 213S 0561E 075 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 220S 0576E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 226S 0595E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 228S 0609E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 227S 0622E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 223S 0632E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 218S 0632E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 215S 0629E 040 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.6S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.8S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 56.5E.
15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66
NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS
975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011512 213S 561E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.6S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.8S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 56.5E.
15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66
NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS
975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (SIX) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 0

120H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
BELAL HAS HEATED UP AND THE MINIMUM IS NO LONGER CENTERED IN THE
CONVECTION. THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT SWATH MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER, WHICH HAS BEEN DETERMINED USING HRV
IMAGES. IT HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION,
INDICATING A WEAKENING DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE OVER REUNION. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO ESTIMATES A PT OF 4.0, AND BY INERTIA THE CI
IS KEPT AT 5.0, I.E. WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
ESTIMATE WEAKER WINDS AT 45-50KT. A COMPROMISE WITH THESE ANALYSES IS
THEREFORE MADE, AND THE ANALYZED WINDS ARE REVISED TO 65KT. THE BELAL
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE STILL CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE EYEWALL HITS REUNION. AFTER PASSING OVER THE ISLAND, BELAL
CONTINUES ITS GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. IN
MID-WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, IT MOVES EASTWARDS. THEN, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT: A LOOP TO THE NORTH OR EVEN A
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE IS THEN POSSIBLE, WHILE REMAINING IN THE
TROPICAL DOMAIN. ON LONGER TIMESCALES, CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING
CURRENTS CONTINUE TO MAKE TRACK FORECASTS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND THE
RSMC IS CURRENTLY OPTING FOR AN ERRATIC TRACK ON THESE TIMESCALES,
WHICH MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY.

AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM REUNION, BELAL RETURNS TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY, OR EVEN
INCREASE IT SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM. BY MID-WEEK, BELAL'S ERRATIC
TRACK COULD TAKE IT BACK TO WATERS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION,
THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND THE INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD CAUSE IT TO BEGIN AN INITIAL SLOW DECREASE IN
INTENSITY, WHICH WOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BELAL
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE POST-CYCLONIC STAGE FROM FRIDAY,
SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVING INTO A FILLING LOW.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- END OF STORM FORCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. END OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 250-300MM IN 24H OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HEIGHTS AND IN THE ORDER OF 200-250MM IN 24H IN THE SOUTH.
- WAVES OF AROUND 6-8M IN THE EAST AND SOUTH-EAST ON MONDAY EVENING,
QUICKLY SUBSIDING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH 2 TIMES THESE HEIGHTS.

MAURITIUS:
- MAURITIUS NO LONGER AFFECTED BY DIRECT IMPACT.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- WAVES 4 TO 6M ON MONDAY, WEAKENING TIMIDLY ON TUESDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151213
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 16/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

72H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 0

120H: 20/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU CYCLONE
TROPICAL BELAL S'EST RECHAUFFEE ET LE MINIMUM N'EST PLUS CENTRE DANS
LA CONVECTION. L'ABSENCE D'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE ET DE PASSE ASCAT REND
DIFFICILE LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE ET CELLE-CI A ETE DETERMINEE A
L'AIDE DES IMAGES HRV. IL EST DECALE VERS LA BORDURE NORD DE CETTE
CONVECTION, SIGNANT AINSI UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUITE AU PASSAGE DU
SYSTEME SUR LA REUNION. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO PERMET D'ESTIMER UN
PT DE 4.0 ET PAR INERTIE LE CI EST CONSERVE A 5.0, SOIT DES VENTS DE
L'ORDRE DE 80KT. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ESTIMENT DES VENTS PLUS
FAIBLE A 45-50KT. UN COMPROMIS AVEC CES ANALYSES EST DONC EFFECTUE ET
LES VENTS ANALYSES SONT DONC REVUS A 65KT. LE SYSTEME BELAL EST DONC
ENCORE CLASSE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

LE MUR DE L'OEIL A TOUCHE LA REUNION. APRES ETRE PASSE SUR L'ILE
BELAL POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'EST-SUD-EST JUSQU'A MARDI
SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
GONFLANT A L'OUEST ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, IL SE DIRIGE VERS
L'EST. PUIS DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIENT
CONDUIRE A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT : UNE BOUCLE VERS LE NORD
VOIRE UNE PHASE DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE EST ALORS ENVISAGEABLE, TOUT
EN RESTANT DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES CONTINUENT DE RENDRE LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE TRES INCERTAINE ET LE CMRS OPTE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE A CES ECHEANCES, QUI PEUT BEAUCOUP EVOLUER.

EN S'ELOIGNANT DE LA REUNION, BELAL RETROUVE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES QUI LUI PERMETTRAIENT DE MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE,
VOIRE DE L'AUGMENTER LEGEREMENT A COURT TERME. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
SA TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE POURRAIT LE RAMENER SUR DES EAUX A PLUS
FAIBLE POTENTIEL. DE PLUS L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE
ET L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL LUI FERAIENT AMORCER UNE
BAISSE D'INTENSITE D'ABORD LENTE PUIS PLUS RAPIDE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.
BELAL EST PREVU DE PASSER AU STADE POST-CYCLONIQUE A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, EVOLUANT PAR LA SUITE EN DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- FIN DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI. FIN DE GRAND
FRAIS POUR MARDI MATIN.
- CUMULS DE PLUIE ELEVES DE L'ORDRE DE 250-300MM EN 24H SUR LES
HAUTEURS DU SUD-EST ET DE L'ORDRE DE 200-250MM EN 24H DANS LE SUD.
- VAGUES AVOISINANT 6-8M DANS L'EST ET SUD-EST LUNDI SOIR
S'AMORTISSANT RAPIDEMENT. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES PEUVENT
ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.

MAURICE :
- L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PLUS CONCERNE PAR UN IMPACT DIRECT.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN.
- VAGUES 4 A 6M CE LUNDI FAIBLISSANT TIMIDEMENT MARDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 151201
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 55.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

120H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED, WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY MARKED IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE, AS WELL
AS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO WITH AN
ADDITIONAL BAND ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE A CI OF 5.0, I.E. WINDS OF
AROUND 80KT. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM REUNION VALIDATES THIS ESTIMATE,
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 82KT AT 3000M. THESE VALUES WEAKEN DURING THE
CURRENT PASSAGE OVER REUNION. VALUES OF 971HPA WERE MEASURED OVER
NORTH-WEST REUNION AS THE EYE WALL PASSED OVER AT 06UTC. 10MIN GUSTS
OF 91KT WERE MEASURED AT ROLAND GARROS AIRPORT IN REUNION.
SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF 7.3M MEASURED EAST OF REUNION.

BELAL CONTINUES ON AN EAST-SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH-EAST TRACK, LANDING
PARTIALLY ON THE ISLAND OF REUNION THIS MONDAY AT 06UTC. AS IT
APPROACHES REUNION, THE TERRAIN SHOULD HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON
BELAL'S TRACK, BUT THE EYEWALL SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
REUNION. BELAL CONTINUES ITS OVERALL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT: A PHASE OF
QUASI-STATIONARITY OR EVEN A LOOP TO THE NORTH IS THEN CONCEIVABLE,
WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. IN THE LONGER TERM,
CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING CURRENTS CONTINUE TO MAKE TRACK PREDICTION
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND THE RSMC IS CURRENTLY OPTING FOR AN ERRATIC
TRACK ON THESE TIMESCALES, WHICH MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY.

FOLLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR, INTENSITY IS
LEVELLING OFF: BELAL WILL NOT PASS THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER, AS IT INTERACTS WITH REUNION'S TOPOGRAPHY,
INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE VERY TEMPORARILY AS WINDS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO REUNION'S TOPOGRAPHY. ALL THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD, HOWEVER,
LEAD TO A RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AFTER PASSING OVER OR
CLOSE TO REUNION. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN,
ALLOWING BELAL TO CONTINUE EVOLVING AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.
HOWEVER, ITS ERRATIC TRACK STARTING MID-WEEK COULD REDUCE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- CYCLONIC FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY ON REUNION WITH PASSAGE OF THE EYE
WALL. END OF STORM FORCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. END OF NEAR GALE FORCE FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
- WAVES AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH 2 TIMES
THESE HEIGHTS.
- A SURGE OF AROUND 50CM IS EXPECTED.

MAURITIUS :
- MAURITIUS NO LONGER AFFECTED BY DIRECT IMPACT.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24HRS ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 6M ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 55.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 16/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

120H: 20/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE N'A PAS
EVOLUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES MARQUEE AU NIVEAU DU CENTRE
DU CYCLONE MAIS AUSSI DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
EN CDO AVEC UNE BANDE SUPPLEMENTAIRE PERMET D'ESTIMER UN CI DE 5.0
SOIT DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 80KT. LES DONNEES RADAR DOPPLER DE LA
REUNION PERMET DE VALIDER CETTE ESTIMATION AVEC DES VALEURS MAXIMALES
DE 82KT A 3000M. CES VALEURS FAIBLISSENT LORS DU PASSAGE ACTUEL SUR
LA REUNION. DES VALEURS DE 971HPA ONT ETE MESURE SUR LE NORD-OUEST DE
LA REUNION LORS DU PASSAGE DU MUR DE L'OEIL A 06UTC. DES RAFALES
10MIN DE 91KT ONT ETE MESUREES SUR L'AEROPORT ROLAND GARROS DE LA
REUNION. DES VAGUES SIGNIFICATIVES DE 7.3M SONT MESUREES A L'EST DE
LA REUNION.

BELAL CONTINUE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EST-SUD-EST A SUD-EST QUI L'AMENE
A UN ATTERRISSAGE PARTIEL SUR L'ILE DE LA REUNION CE LUNDI A 06UTC.
EN APPROCHANT DE LA REUNION, LE RELIEF DEVRAIT IMPACTER LEGEREMENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL TOUT EN GARDANT UN PASSAGE A PROXIMITE LAISSANT
AINSI LE MUR DE L'OEIL TOUCHER LA REUNION. BELAL POURSUIT SON
MOUVEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'EST-SUD-EST JUSQU'A MARDI SOUS L'EFFET DU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.
EN FIN DE SEMAINE, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT A L'OUEST ET AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES
DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT : UNE PHASE DE
QUASI-STATIONNARITE VOIRE UNE BOUCLE VERS LE NORD EST ALORS
ENVISAGEABLE, TOUT EN RESTANT DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES CONTINUENT DE RENDRE LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE TRES INCERTAINE ET LE CMRS OPTE ACTUELLEMENT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE A CES ECHEANCES, QUI PEUT BEAUCOUP EVOLUER.

SUITE AU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN LEGERE HAUSSE, L'INTENSITE
PLAFONNE : BELAL NE PASSERA PAS LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.
CEPENDANT EN INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE LA REUNION, L'INTENSITE
PEUT FLUCTUER TRES TEMPORAIREMENT EN PRESENTANT D'UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION DES VENTS DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE DU RELIEF DE LA
REUNION. L'ENSEMBLE DE CES PARAMETRES DEVRAIENT TOUTEFOIS CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RELATIF DU SYSTEME APRES LE PASSAGE SUR OU
APPROXIMITE DE LA REUNION. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR ET LAISSER BELAL CONTINUER A EVOLUER A UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. TOUTEFOIS, SA TRAJECTOIRE ERRATICQUE DEBUTANT EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET
CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLESSEMENT NOTABLE DU SYSTEME.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS SUR LA REUNION AVEC PASSAGE DU
MUR DE L'OEIL. FIN DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
FIN DE GRAND FRAIS POUR MARDI MATIN.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES PEUVENT
ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM EST ATTENDUE.

MAURICE :
- L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PLUS CONCERNE PAR UN IMPACT DIRECT.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H LUNDI ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT LES 6M CE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150559
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 55.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
21.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
22.2 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240115012204
2024011500 05S BELAL 006 01 125 06 SATL RADR 040
T000 205S 0545E 090 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 213S 0558E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 219S 0573E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 224S 0590E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 226S 0608E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 225S 0630E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 218S 0638E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 214S 0638E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 54.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 54.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.3S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.9S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.4S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 54.8E.
15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45
NM WEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z AND 160300Z.
//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 202S 540E 90
0524011418 202S 540E 90
0524011418 202S 540E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 90
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 54.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 54.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.3S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.9S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.4S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 54.8E.
15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
45 NM WEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 968 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 54.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

120H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION INITIALLY INTENSIFIED UNTIL 22UTC,
THEN THE CLOUD PATTERN BEGAN DETERIORATING JUST BEFORE 00UTC. THE
CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE BECAME MORE ASYMMETRICAL, PROBABLY UNDER THE
EFFECT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY
MARKED IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE BUT WEAKER ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE.
RADIAL VELOCITY DATA FROM THE COLORADO RADAR SHOW WINDS CLOSE TO
90-95KT AT 2000M ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL, SUGGESTING
WINDS CLOSE TO 80KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THE OTHER HAND, WINDS ARE
TENDING TO WEAKEN ON THE NORTH SIDE.

BELAL CONTINUES ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LANDFALL ON REUNION ISLAND THIS MONDAY SHORTLY
AFTER 06UTC. THIS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD
LEAD TO A SLOWER MOTION : A QUASI-STATIONNARY PHASE OR EVEN A SLIGHT
WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED, WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICS.

THE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LEVEL OFF INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL ON REUNION: IT IS NO LONGER
FORECAST TO BE AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS WIND SHEAR AS
WELL AS LAND INTERACTION WITH REUNION'S HIGH GROUNDS SHOULD LEAD TO
RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN. OVER STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ITS
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK COULD REDUCE ITS
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAKEN IT SOMEWHAT.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS, ONSET OF STORM FORCE EARLY THIS MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY.
END OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS BY MONDAY
EVENING.
- WAVES AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH TWICE
THESE HEIGHTS.
- A STORM SURGE NEAR 50CM IS EXPECTED.

MAURITIUS :
- THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS IS NO LONGER IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.
- WAVES IN EXCESS OF 6M THIS MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150034
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 54.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 966 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 16/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 16/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

120H: 20/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST D'ABORD
NETTEMENT INTENSIFIEE JUSQU'A 22UTC PUIS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER UN PEU AVANT 00UTC. LA STRUCTURE DU CYCLONE
EST DEVENUE PLUS ASYMETRIQUE, PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES
MARQUEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST MAIS PLUS FAIBLE COTE NORD-OUEST.
LES DONNEES DE VITESSE RADIALE DU RADAR DU COLORADO MONTRENT DES
VENTS PROCHES DE 90-95KT VERS 2000M D'ALTITUDE DANS LE MUR DE L'OEIL
SUD, CE QUI SUGGERE DES VENTS PROCHES DE 80KT EN SURFACE. LES VENTS
ONT EN REVANCHE TENDANCE A FAIBLIR DU COTE NORD.

BELAL CONTINUE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EST-SUD-EST A SUD-EST QUI DEVRAIT
L'AMENER A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR L'ILE DE LA REUNION CE LUNDI UN PEU
APRES 06UTC. CE MOUVEMENT SE POURSUIT JUSQU'A MARDI SOUS L'EFFET DU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.
EN FIN DE SEMAINE, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE GONFLANT A L'OUEST ET AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES
DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT : UNE PHASE DE
QUASI-STATIONNARITE VOIRE UN LEGER REBROUSSEMENT VERS L'OUEST EST
ALORS ENVISAGEABLE, TOUT EN RESTANT DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL.

LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN LEGERE HAUSSE DEVRAIT FAIRE
PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA REUNION : IL N'EST
PLUS PREVU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CE CISAILLEMENT ET
L'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF DE LA REUNION DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT RELATIF DU SYSTEME LUNDI SOIR. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE
CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT FAIBLIR. SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, BELAL
POURRAIT CONTINUER A EVOLUER A UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.
TOUTEFOIS, SA PHASE DE STATIONNARITE EN FIN DE SEMAINE POURRAIT FAIRE
DIMINUER SON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET L'AFFAIBLIR UN PEU.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN COURS, FORCE TEMPETE EN CE DEBUT DE
MATINEE ET UNE TRES FORTE PROBABILITE DE FORCE OURAGAN EN JOURNEE DE
LUNDI. FIN DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES PEUVENT
ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM EST ATTENDUE.

MAURICE :
- L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PLUS DANS LE CONE D'INCERTITUDE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE, ELOIGNANT LE SCENARIO D'UN IMPACT DIRECT.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H LUNDI ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT LES 6M CE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150004
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 54.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 53.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AROUND THE CENTER
AND THE EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, GIVING A 3H-AVERAGED DT OF
4.5+, RISING TO 5.0 ON THE LATEST IMAGES AROUND 18UTC. SEVERAL
OBJECTIVE DATA, INCLUDING A SAR PASS AT 0155Z THIS SUNDAY MORNING,
INDICATE THAT THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERESTIMATED SINCE 06UTC. RADIAL VELOCITY DATA FROM THE REUNION'S
COLORADO RADAR SHOW WINDS CLOSE TO 85 TO 90KT BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000M
ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN THE EYEWALL, WHICH FITS AN ESTIMATED 75KT AT THE
SURFACE. THESE RADAR VELOCITIES AS WELL AS THE 1742Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRM A TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND
IS APPROACHING REUNION AROUND 19UTC, PROBABLY MARKING THE ONSET OF
GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE ISLAND.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BELAL HAS MADE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TURN THIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. A DIRECT IMPACT ON REUNION REMAINS HIGHLY LIKELY FROM MONDAY
MORNING. FROM TUESDAY, BELAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS. AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS LEAD TO A A CLEAR
SLOWDOWN, WITH HIGHLY DIVERGING TRACK SCENARIOS AMONG VARIOUS MODELS:
THE SYSTEM COULD ALMOST STALL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY MOVE BACK WESTWARDS,
WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICS.

BELAL IS STILL BENEFITING FROM QUITE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY INCREASING WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR, THE SYSTEM'S SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION MEANS THAT IT
IS NOT OVERLY AFFECTED, AND MAY THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL IT PASSES
CLOSE TO REUNION AT A STAGE CLOSE TO THAT OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AS WELL
AS THE EVOLUTION CLOSE TO REUNION'S HIGH GROUND COULD LEAD TO A
RELATIVE WEAKENING. IN THE LONGER TERM, SHEAR COULD WEAKEN A BIT. ON
STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY EVENING, STORM FORCE LATER IN THE
NIGHT, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. END
OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS.
- A STORM SURGE NEAR 50CM IS EXPECTED.

MAURITIUS :
- THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS IS NO LONGER IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
STORM FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.
- WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN EXCESS OF 6M DURING
MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 53.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 15/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 16/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 16/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 19/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST INTENSIFIEE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'EST UN PEU AMELIOREE,
DONNANT UN DT MOYEN SUR 3H A 4.5+ ET EN HAUSSE VERS 5.0 SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES VERS 18UTC. PLUSIEURS DONNEES OBJECTIVES, DONT UNE
PASSE SAR A 0155Z CE DIMANCHE MATIN, INDIQUENT QUE L'INTENSITE ETAIT
UN PEU SOUS-ESTIMEE DEPUIS 06UTC. LES DONNEES DE VITESSE RADIALE DU
RADAR DU COLORADO (LA REUNION) MONTRENT DES VENTS PROCHES DE 85 A
90KT ENTRE 2500 ET 3000M D'ALTITUDE DANS LE MUR DE L'OEIL, CE QUI
CORRESPOND A UNE ESTIMATION A 75KT EN SURFACE. CES VITESSES RADIALES
TOUT COMME LES VENTS MESURES SUR LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 1742Z
CONFIRMENT UNE TENDANCE A L'INTENSIFICATION. UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE
INTENSE EST EN TRAIN D'ABORDER LA REUNION VERS 19UTC, MARQUANT
PROBABLEMENT L'ARRIVEE DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT SUR L'ILE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, BELAL A EFFECTUE, COMME PREVU, UN VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST CE DIMANCHE APRES-MIDI, EN LIEN AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. UN IMPACT DIRECT SUR LA REUNION RESTE TRES
PROBABLE A PARTIR DE LUNDI MATIN. A PARTIR DE MARDI, BELAL DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE SA ROUTE VERS L'EST. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES CONDUISENT A UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE DE
TRAJECTOIRES ENTRE LES MODELES ET UN NET RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT
: UNE PHASE DE QUASI-STAGNATION VOIRE UN LEGER REBROUSSEMENT VERS
L'OUEST EST ALORS ENVISAGEABLE, TOUT EN RESTANT DANS LE DOMAINE
TROPICAL.

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE D'ASSEZ BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES. MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN LEGERE
HAUSSE, LE MOUVEMENT UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-EST
LUI PERMET DE NE PAS ETRE TROP GENE, D'OU UNE INTENSIFICATION
POSSIBLE JUSQU'AU PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE LA REUNION A UN STADE PROCHE
DU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'AUGMENTATION
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT AINSI QUE L'EVOLUTION A PROXIMITE DU
RELIEF DE REUNION POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RELATIF DU
SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT EN PARTIE
FAIBLIR. SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, BELAL POURRAIT CONTINUER A
EVOLUER A UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS A PARTIR DE CE DIMANCHE SOIR,
FORCE TEMPETE EN FIN DE NUIT ET UNE TRES FORTE PROBABILITE DE FORCE
OURAGAN EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI. FIN DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE
LUNDI A MARDI.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6 METRES CE DIMANCHE SOIR ET
AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 2
FOIS CES HAUTEURS.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM EST ATTENDUE.

MAURICE :
- L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PLUS DANS LE CONE D'INCERTITUDE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE, ELOIGNANT LE SCENARIO D'UN IMPACT DIRECT.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. TRES FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN 24H LUNDI ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 141816
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 53.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
20.8 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
21.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.4S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.0S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.6S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.5S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 53.5E.
14JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
141200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240114132513
2024011412 05S BELAL 005 01 195 07 SATL 030
T000 198S 0533E 085 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 207S 0540E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 214S 0553E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 220S 0569E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 226S 0587E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 227S 0611E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 225S 0621E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 219S 0628E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.4S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.0S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.6S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.5S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 53.5E.
14JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
141200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 198S 533E 85
0524011412 198S 533E 85
0524011412 198S 533E 85
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 53.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY, BUT TWO PERIPHERAL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE 1001Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE, CONVECTION CAN
BE SEEN MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS IN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERAL BAND. IN LINE WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH AVERAGE WINDS OF 65KT.

BELAL'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS FORCED IT TO HEAD SOUTH TODAY.
THEN, AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY REFOCUSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, BELAL IS SET TO TURN SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE WITH A DIRECT
IMPACT ON REUNION IN THE NEXT 24 H, RULING OUT A DIRECT IMPACT ON
MAURITIUS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARDS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE STEERING FLOWS ARE MORE
CONTRASTED, IMPLYING A STRONG DIVERGENCE OF TRACKS BETWEEN MODELS.
RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMBIT BETWEEN DIFFERENT GUIDELINES. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN.

BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.THESE CONDITIONS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED JUST OUTSIDE REUNION. FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR AND EVOLUTION
NEAR REUNION'S RELIEF COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, SOME OF THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN. ON
STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY EVENING, STORM FORCE LIKELY
LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE ON MONDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH 2 TIMES THESE
HEIGHTS.
- A SURGE OF AROUND 50CM IS EXPECTED.

MAURITIUS :
- THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS IS NO LONGER IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100-200MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING.
- WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, AND IN EXCESS OF
6M DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141243
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 53.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/01/2024 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 15/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 16/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 19/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU CENTRE A UN
PEU DIMINUE MAIS DEUX BANDES PERIPHERIQUES SE SONT DEVELOPPEES A
L'EST ET A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. SUR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 1001Z,
ON OBSERVE LA CONVECTION ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU
SYSTEME AINSI QUE DANS LA BANDE PERIPHERIQUE OUEST. EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, LE SYSTEME EST
MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS DE 65KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE POSITIONNEE A
L'EST ET SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, QUI LUI A IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE SUD
AUJOURD'HUI. PUIS, AVEC LE RECENTRAGE PROGRESSIF DE LA DORSALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, BELAL DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-EST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION CONTINUE A
FAIRE EVOLUER LE METEORE AVEC UN IMPACT DIRECT SUR LA REUNION DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24 H, ECARTANT DORENAVANT UN IMPACT DIRECT SUR L'ILE
MAURICE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, BELAL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA ROUTE VERS
L'EST. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT PLUS
CONTRASTES, IMPLIQUANT UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE DE TRAJECTOIRES ENTRE LES
MODELES. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CEPENDANT CONTINUER
D'EVOLUER DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL.

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES A FORT CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE, UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT AINSI QU'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES CONDITIONS PLAIDENT POUR UN POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION D'ICI LA NUIT PROCHAINE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT AUX PORTES DE LA REUNION. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'AUGMENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AINSI QUE L'EVOLUTION A PROXIMITE DU RELIEF DE
REUNION POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME. A
PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT EN PARTIE FAIBLIR. SUR DES
EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, BELAL POURRAIT CONTINUER A EVOLUER A UNE
INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS EN SOIREE DE DIMANCHE, FORCE
TEMPETE PROBABLE EN FIN DE NUIT AVEC POSSIBILITE DE FORCE OURAGAN EN
JOURNEE DE LUNDI.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6
METRES DIMANCHE SOIR ET AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS
HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM EST ATTENDUE.

MAURICE :
- L'ILE MAURICE N'EST PLUS DANS LE CONE D'INCERTITUDE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE ELOIGNANT LE SCENARIO D'UN IMPACT DIRECT POSSIBLE.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100-200MM EN 24H ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI
MATIN.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 141218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 53.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER SPREADING TO
400NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
21.2 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 53.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE BELAL BAND CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE, DESPITE A SHORT PASSAGE THROUGH THE BAND'S EYE. CLOUD TOPS
REMAIN VERY COLD AND CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER WITH
PERIPHERAL BANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THIS CONFIGURATION IS
ALSO CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE RADAR IMAGE, WITH A SHARPER EYE BEGINNING
TO REFORM. THE 0515Z ASCAT PASS, AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES, CONFIRM MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 65KT. BELAL IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

BELAL'S TRACK IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS FORCING IT TO HEAD SOUTH
THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
REFOCUSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD MAKE A
SOUTHEASTERLY TURN, APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY. AT THE
TIME OF PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK IS OF THE ORDER OF 80 KM, MAKING THE EXACT MOMENT OF CLOSEST
PASSAGE UNCERTAIN. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST LATER SCENARIOS.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS TRACK INCREASE DUE TO MORE CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST).

BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
SHORT TERM, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BY TONIGHT. THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED TODAY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE RELIEF OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS COULD LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SHEAR
COULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. OVER STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY WITHOUT EVOKING IT INTO
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- THE INTENSE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PASS WITHIN 100 KM OF
THE ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DAY. PROBABILITY OF
DIRECT IMPACT EXCEEDS 60%.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING, STORM-FORCE LIKELY
LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH HURRICANE-FORCE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH 2 TIMES THESE
HEIGHTS.
- A SURGE OF AROUND 50CM IS EXPECTED. IT COULD BE HIGHER IN THE EVENT
OF A DIRECT IMPACT.


MAURITIUS:
- INFLUENCE PROBABLY MORE PERIPHERAL THAN IN REUNION. THIS MORNING,
MAURITIUS EMERGED FROM THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK, REMOVING
THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100-200MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING.
- WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, AND IN EXCESS OF
6M DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140655
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 53.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2024 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 15/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 15/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 16/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 16/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 19/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SO: 315 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
DE BELAL A PEU EVOLUE MALGRE UN COURT PASSAGE EN OEIL EN BANDE. LES
SOMMETS DES NUAGES RESTENT TRES FROIDS ET LA CONVECTION S'ORGANISE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE AVEC DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-EST. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST AUSSI NETTEMENT VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGE
RADAR AVEC UN OEIL PLUS NET QUI COMMENCE A SE REFORMER. LA PASSE
ASCAT DE 0515Z, AINSI QUE LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES
CONFIRMENT DES VENT MAX AUTOUR DE 65KT. BELAL EST DONC MAINTENU AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE POSITIONNEE A
L'EST ET SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, QUI LUI IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE SUD CE
MATIN. EN COURS DE JOURNEE, AVEC LE RECENTRAGE PROGRESSIF DE LA
DORSALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, BELAL DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST, L'APPROCHANT DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE NUIT
DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. LA PRESENTE PREVISION CONTINUE A FAIRE EVOLUER
LE METEORE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE DE LA REUNION LUNDI. AU
MOMENT DU PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES ILES SOEURS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE EST DE L'ORDRE DE 80 KM RENDANT INCERTAIN LE MOMENT EXACT
DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES. CERTAINS MODELES NUMERIQUES PROPOSENT
D'AILLEURS DES SCENARIOS PLUS TARDIFS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE
MOUVEMENT DE BELAL DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE EN RAISON DE FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVENANT PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES (COMPETITION ENTRE UNE DORSALE GONFLANT A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST).

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES A FORT CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE, UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT AINSI QU'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES CONDITIONS PLAIDENT POUR UN POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION D'ICI CE SOIR. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
DEVRAIT POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT AUJOURD'HUI. A PARTIR DE LUNDI,
L'AUGMENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AINSI
QUE L'EVOLUTION A PROXIMITE DU RELIEF DE REUNION ET MAURICE POURRAIT
CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG TERME,
LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT EN PARTIE FAIBLIR. SUR DES EAUX ENCORE
CHAUDES, BELAL POURRAIT CONTINUER A EVOLUER A UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE SANS L'EVOCUER DANS LE DOMAINE EXTRA-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- PASSAGE DU COEUR INTENSE DU SYSTEME PROBABLE A MOINS DE 100 KM DE
L'ILE ENTRE LA FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET LA JOURNEE DE
LUNDI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN IMPACT DIRECT DEPASSE 60%.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS A PARTIR EN SOIREE DE DIMANCHE
SOIR, FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE EN FIN DE NUIT AVEC POSSIBILITE DE FORCE
OURAGAN EN JOURNEE.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6
METRES DIMANCHE SOIR ET AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS
HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM EST ATTENDUE. ELLE POURRAIT ETRE
PLUS FORTE EN CAS D'IMPACT DIRECT.

MAURICE :
- INFLUENCE PROBABLEMENT PLUS PERIPHERIQUE QU'A LA REUNION. L'ILE
MAURICE SORT CE MATIN DU CONE D'INCERTITUDE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
ELOIGNANT LE SCENARIO D'UN IMPACT DIRECT POSSIBLE.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100-200MM EN 24H ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI
MATIN.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 140609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 53.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
19.9 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240114012654
2024011400 05S BELAL 004 01 205 04 SATL 050
T000 181S 0535E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 193S 0534E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 201S 0540E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 208S 0552E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 214S 0567E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 222S 0597E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 226S 0619E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 228S 0633E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.2S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 53.5E.
14JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
176 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 140000Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.
//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 177S 537E 65
0524011318 177S 537E 65
0524011318 177S 537E 65
0524011400 181S 535E 70
0524011400 181S 535E 70
0524011400 181S 535E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.2S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 53.5E. 14JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
176 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 980 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 53.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE, WITH THE CENTER INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY COLD
CDO. AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA, AND ESPECIALLY RADAR IMAGES FROM COLORADO,
SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
IN THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES, A HOT SPOT HAS APPEARED. CONSEQUENTLY,
AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, BELAL IS
CONSIDERED TO HAVE REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FURTHERMORE,
IN VIEW OF THE MICROWAVE DATA, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT A EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BELAL'S TRAJECTORY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTHEAST, FORCING IT TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. TODAY, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST,
APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO
THE SISTER ISLANDS, THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO
150 KM, MAKING IT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL PASS THE CLOSEST.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN EVEN LATER SCENARIO. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
BELAL'S MOVEMENT IS SET TO SLOW DOWN AND UNCERTAINTY ON ITS
TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST).


BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARGUE IN
FAVOR OF A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TONIGHT. THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED TODAY. A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD HOWEVER LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY.
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION CLOSE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY OF REUNION AND
MAURITIUS COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHER
OUT, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. ON STILL-WARM WATERS,
BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE
ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A
DIRECT HIT EXCEEDS 60%.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE
LIKELY BY THE END OF THE NIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE DURING THE DAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND AND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE
THESE HEIGHTS.

MAURITIUS :
- PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140054
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 53.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2024 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 15/01/2024 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 15/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 16/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 16/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 19/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL A
CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UN CENTRE DE PLUS EN PLUS NOYE AU SEIN
D'UN CDO TRES FROID. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 ET SURTOUT LES
IMAGES RADAR DU COLORADO, MONTRENT LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'UN OEIL BIEN
DEFINI SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGE,
UN POINT CHAUD EST APPARU. EN CONSEQUENCE, ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES, IL EST ESTIME QUE BELAL A ATTEINT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. PAR AILLEURS, AU VU DES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES, IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL S'AMORCE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE POSITIONNEE A
L'EST ET SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, QUI LUI IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST CE MATIN. AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE RECENTRAGE PROGRESSIF DE
LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, BELAL DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST, L'APPROCHANT DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE NUIT
DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. LA PRESENTE PREVISION CONTINUE A FAIRE EVOLUER
LE METEORE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE DE LA REUNION LUNDI. AU
MOMENT DU PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES ILES SOEURS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE EST DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 KM RENDANT INCERTAIN LE
MOMENT DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES. CERTAINS MODELES NUMERIQUES PROPOSENT
D'AILLEURS DES SCENARIOS PLUS TARDIFS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE
MOUVEMENT DE BELAL DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE EN RAISON DE FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVENANT PLUS
CONTRADICTOIRES (COMPETITION ENTRE UNE DORSALE GONFLANT A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST).

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES A FORT CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE, UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT AINSI QU'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES CONDITIONS PLAIDENT POUR UN POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION D'ICI CE SOIR. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
DEVRAIT POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT AUJOURD'HUI. UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT CEPENDANT LIMITER LE PIC
D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'AUGMENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AINSI QUE L'EVOLUTION A PROXIMITE DU
RELIEF DE REUNION ET MAURICE POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
GRADUEL DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT EN
PARTIE FAIBLIR. SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, BELAL POURRAIT CONTINUER
A EVOLUER A UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- PASSAGE DU COEUR INTENSE DU SYSTEME PROBABLE A MOINS DE 100 KM DE
L'ILE ENTRE LA FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET LA JOURNEE DE
LUNDI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN IMPACT DIRECT DEPASSE 60%.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR 18UTC,
FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE EN FIN DE NUIT AVEC POSSIBILITE DE FORCE
OURAGAN EN JOURNEE.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6
METRES DIMANCHE SOIR ET AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS
HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM EST ATTENDUE. ELLE POURRAIT ETRE
PLUS FORTE EN CAS D'IMPACT DIRECT.

MAURICE :
- INFLUENCE PROBABLEMENT PLUS PERIPHERIQUE QU'A LA REUNION, MAIS ON
NE PEUT EXCLURE UNE INFLUENCE PLUS DIRECTE, ETANT DONNEE
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100-200MM EN 24H ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI
MATIN.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 140030
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 53.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131905
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 53.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE, WITH CURVED BANDS (VERY COLD CLOUD TOP) WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1418Z AND 1458Z SSMIS AND 1806Z
AMSU) SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING OF A WELL DEFINED EYE IN 89GHZ.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
EYEWALL, PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR STILL PRESENT.
THE 1433Z SMAP PASS INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 50KT, PERHAPS
PARTLY OFFSET BY THE SMALL SIZE OF BELAL'S CORE. IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, AND IN VIEW OF THE TREND, THE
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60KT.

BELAL'S TRAJECTORY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTHEAST, FORCING IT TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THIS SATURDAY EVENING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL
SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE
METEOR EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON
MONDAY. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO 150 KM, MAKING IT UNCERTAIN
EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL PASS THE CLOSEST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN EVEN
LATER SCENARIO. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT IS SET TO SLOW
DOWN AND UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF
MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST).


BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS, COUPLED
WITH THE SYSTEM'S SMALL CORE SIZE, ARGUE IN FAVOR OF A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW, SUNDAY.
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED BY
TOMORROW. A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD LIMIT THE PEAK
INTENSITY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION CLOSE TO THE
TOPOGRAPHY OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHER OUT, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. ON
STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE
ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A
DIRECT EXCEEDS 60%.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE
LIKELY FROM MONDAY 00UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE.
CLOSEST PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND AND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE
THESE HEIGHTS.

MAURITIUS :
- PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131905
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 53.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2024 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 14/01/2024 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 15/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 16/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 16/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2024 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL A
CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC DES BANDES INCURVEES (SOMMETS NUAGEUX
TRES FROIDS) S'ENROULANT PROCHE DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE 1418Z ET 1458Z ET L'AMSU DE 1806Z) MONTRENT LA
CONSITUTION PROGRESSIVE D'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN 89GHZ. CEPENDANT, IL
Y A ENCORE UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'EST ENCORE PRESENTE.
UNE PASSE SMAP A 1433Z INDIQUE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE DE 50KT,
PEUT ETRE EN PARTIE LIMITE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR DE BELAL. EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET AU VU DE LA TENDANCE,
L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 60KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE POSITIONNEE A
L'EST ET SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, QUI LUI IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST CE SAMEDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC LE
RECENTRAGE PROGRESSIF DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, BELAL
DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST, L'APPROCHANT DES GRANDES
MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION CONTINUE A FAIRE EVOLUER LE METEORE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE
DE L'ILE DE LA REUNION LUNDI. AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES
ILES SOEURS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EST DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A
150 KM RENDANT INCERTAIN LE MOMENT DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES. CERTAINS
MODELES NUMERIQUES PROPOSENT D'AILLEURS DES SCENARIOS PLUS TARDIFS. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, LE MOUVEMENT DE BELAL DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE EN RAISON DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS DEVENANT PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES (COMPETITION ENTRE UNE
DORSALE GONFLANT A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE SITUEE AU
NORD-EST).

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES A FORT CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE, UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT AINSI QU'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES CONDITIONS AINSI QUE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
COEUR DE SYSTEME PLAIDENT POUR UN FORT POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE D'ICI DEMAIN DIMANCHE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
DEVRAIT POURRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT DEMAIN DIMANCHE. UN EVENTUEL CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT EVENTUELLEMENT LIMITER LE
PIC D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'AUGMENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AINSI QUE L'EVOLUTION A PROXIMITE DU
RELIEF DE REUNION ET MAURICE POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
GRADUEL DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT EN
PARTIE FAIBLIR. SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, BELAL POURRAIT CONTINUER
A EVOLUER A UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- PASSAGE DU COEUR INTENSE DU SYSTEME PROBABLE A MOINS DE 100 KM DE
L'ILE ENTRE LA FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET LA JOURNEE DE
LUNDI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN IMPACT DIRECT DEPASSE 60%.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR 18UTC,
FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE A PARTIR DE LUNDI 00UTC AVEC POSSIBILITE DE
FORCE OURAGAN EN MATINEE.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6
METRES DIMANCHE SOIR ET AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS
HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.

MAURICE :
- INFLUENCE PROBABLEMENT PLUS PERIPHERIQUE QU'A LA REUNION, MAIS ON
NE PEUT EXCLURE UNE INFLUENCE PLUS DIRECTE, ETANT DONNEE
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100-200MM EN 24H ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI
MATIN.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 131833
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 53.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 240113140327
2024011312 05S BELAL 003 01 210 12 SATL 040
T000 166S 0543E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 182S 0535E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 193S 0534E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 201S 0540E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 208S 0552E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 219S 0582E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 224S 0606E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 227S 0623E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.2S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.9S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.4S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.7S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 54.1E.
13JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z AND 141500Z.//
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011312 166S 543E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.2S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.9S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.4S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.7S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 54.1E.
13JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 54.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY KEPT
IMPROVING, TRANSITIONING FROM A STRONGLY-WRAPPED CURVED BAND TO A CDO
CONFIGURATION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (-90C). STRONG LIGHTINING
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED NEAR THE CENTER, WHICH IS A LIKELY SIGN OF
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING TO THE
NORTH-WEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CONFIRM CURRENT EXCELLENT
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55KT,
MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 4.0.

BELAL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BY A RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY, AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXPECT
BELAL TO TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS, THE UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS
TRACK WHILE IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS OF ABOUT 100
TO 150 KM. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS TRACK INCREASES DUE TO MORE CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST).

IN THE SHORT TERM, BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED AND CONVERGENCE, VERY
WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS, TOGETHER WITH THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE, SUGGEST A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING. INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD THUS BE REACHED BY TOMORROW SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY COULD THEN STAGNATE OR DIMINISH AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE
ISLANDS, DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE), POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION, BUT ALSO DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, DESPITE A SLIGHT DROP IN
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR, MOST
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BELAL COULD REMAIN AT A QUITE MATURE STAGE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE
ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A
DIRECT MAJOR IMPACT EXCEEDS 60%.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE
LIKELY FROM MONDAY 00UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE.
CLOSEST PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL OF 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND AND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE
THESE HEIGHTS.

MAURITIUS :
- PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS. FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/2/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 54.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/01/2024 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 14/01/2024 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 15/01/2024 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

60H: 16/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 16/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 18/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BELAL
S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE PASSANT D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE A FORT
ENROULEMENT A UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO A SOMMETS TRES FROIDS (-90C).
UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE A ETE DETECTEE PRES DU CENTRE, SIGNE
PROBABLE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE EN COURS. L'EPANCHEMENT DE
CIRRUS VERS LE NORD-OUEST ET LE SUD DU SYSTEME TEMOIGNE D'UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 55KT,
BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A 4.0.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BELAL EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE POSITIONNEE A
L'EST ET SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, QUI LUI IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST CE SAMEDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC LE
RECENTRAGE PROGRESSIF DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, BELAL
DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST, L'APPROCHANT DES GRANDES
MASCAREIGNES EN COURS DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION CONTINUE A FAIRE EVOLUER LE METEORE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE
DE L'ILE DE LA REUNION LUNDI MATIN. AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE A PROXIMITE
DES ILES SOEURS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EST DE L'ORDRE DE
100 A 150 KM. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE MOUVEMENT DE BELAL DEVRAIT
RALENTIR ET L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE EN RAISON DE
FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVENANT PLUS CONTRADICTOIRES (COMPETITION ENTRE UNE
DORSALE GONFLANT A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE SITUEE AU
NORD-EST).

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE HUMIDE DE BASSES
COUCHES, DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES A FORT CONTENU ENERGETIQUE, UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT AINSI QU'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES
CONDITIONS AINSI QUE LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR DE SYSTEME PLAIDENT
POUR UN FORT POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE D'ICI DIMANCHE. LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT D'ICI DEMAIN
DIMANCHE. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT STAGNER OU DIMINUER ENSUITE
AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE PRES DES ILES, NON SEULEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE
MECANISMES INTERNES (POSSIBLE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL), D'UNE EVENTUELLE INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES, MAIS AUSSI
D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
EN AUGMENTATION AU PASSAGE DES MASCAREIGNES, POUVANT APPORTER
TEMPORAIREMENT DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME.
MARDI ET MERCREDI PROCHAIN, MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE UN LEGERE
BAISSE ET LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE, LA PLUPART DES
MODELES SUGGERENT QUE BELAL DEVRAIT GARDER UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR LA REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- PASSAGE DU COEUR INTENSE DU SYSTEME PROBABLE A MOINS DE 100 KM DE
L'ILE ENTRE LA FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET LA JOURNEE DE
LUNDI. LA PROBABILITE D'UN IMPACT DIRECT D'INTENSITE MAJEURE DEPASSE
60%.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR 18UTC,
FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE A PARTIR DE LUNDI 00UTC AVEC POSSIBILITE DE
FORCE OURAGAN. PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES AUTOUR DE LUNDI MATIN.
- FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE DE L'ORDRE DE 200-400MM EN 24H SUR LES ZONES
DE BASSE ALTITUDE ET DE L'ORDRE DE 1000-1500MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS
ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6
METRES DIMANCHE SOIR ET AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS
HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE 2 FOIS CES HAUTEURS.

MAURICE :
- INFLUENCE PROBABLEMENT PLUS PERIPHERIQUE QU'A LA REUNION, MAIS ON
NE PEUT EXCLURE UNE INFLUENCE PLUS DIRECTE, ETANT DONNEE
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE. A AFFINER.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100-200MM EN 24H ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI
MATIN.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 131211
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 54.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.8 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 55.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

24H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

BELAL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION, WITH INTENSE
CONVECTION AND A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE WRAPPING AROUND A COMPACT
CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A TIGHT INNER CORE. A
SMOS PASS AT 0236Z MEASURED WINDS AT 43KT. THE SYSTEM PASSED TO THE
IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE ISLAND OF TROMELIN BETWEEN 06 AND 07UTC, WHERE
THE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 995HPA, AN AVERAGE
SOUTH-WESTERLY WIND OF 39KT GUSTING TO 52KT AT 07UTC. THESE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INDICATIONS LEAD TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT
45KT.

THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THIS
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION WILL LEAD IT TO BE
STEERED BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE STEERING FLOW, ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, FORCING IT TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST,
WHILE SLOWING DOWN CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER MASCARENE
ISLANDS BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND BRINGS
THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY MORNING. THE
DISPERSION OF OVERALL FORECASTS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES,
LEADING TO AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE THAN 100 KM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

IN THE SHORT TERM, BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR, GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, LOW DEEP SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY
POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS,
TOGETHER WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SUGGEST A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING.
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD THUS BE REACHED BY TOMORROW
SUNDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE OR DIMINISH
AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS, DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS
(POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE), POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION, BUT
ALSO TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE
MASCARENES, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS, AND
SHOULD NOT ONLY REACH COOLER, LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, BUT ALSO
ENCOUNTER PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE
ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE
LIKELY FROM MONDAY 00UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE.
CLOSEST PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 200MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGH GROUNDS FROM
SUNDAY AND OVER THE WHOLE ISLAND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF AROUND 500-1000MM IN 24H OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE
THESE HEIGHTS.

MAURITIUS :
- PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS. TO BE ADJUSTED.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H ON MONDAY.
- WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130713
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/2/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 55.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2024 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 0

24H: 14/01/2024 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 14/01/2024 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 15/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 16/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 18/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

BELAL CONTINUE A MONTRER DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE
CONVECTION INTENSE ET UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT SUR
UN TOUR COMPLET AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE COMPACT. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
MONTRENT UNE AMORCE D'ANNEAU INTERNE DE PETITE DIMENSION. UNE PASSE
SMOS A 0236Z A MESURE DES VENTS A 43KT. LE SYSTEME EST PASSE A L'EST
IMMEDIAT DE L'ILE DE TROMELIN ENTRE 06 ET 07UTC, ET LA STATION
METEOROLOGIQUE Y A MESURE A 07UTC UNE PRESSION DE 995HPA, UN VENT
MOYEN DE SUD-OUEST DE 39KT AVEC UNE RAFALE A 52KT. CES INDICATIONS
SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE A 45KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE DE BASSES
COUCHES POSITIONNEE AU SUD-EST, QUI LUI IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST CE SAMEDI. PAR LA SUITE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
L'EMMENERA A ETRE PILOTE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE PLUS HAUTE
ALTITUDE, SUR LE FLANC OCCIDENTAL D'UNE DORSALE LUI IMPOSANT UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD PUIS SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT A
PROXIMITE NORD DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A
LUNDI OU LUNDI MATIN. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PLUS
SUD QUE LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE ET FAIT EVOLUER LE METEORE A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE DE LA REUNION LUNDI MATIN. LA DISPERSION
DES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE RESTE IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES, INDUISANT
UNE INCERTITUDE DE PLUS DE 100 KM SUR LES DISTANCES DE PASSAGE PRES
DES ILES DES MASCAREIGNES.

BELAL BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION EN AIR HUMIDE, UNE
BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND,
DES EAUX TRES CHAUDES A FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE AINSI QU'UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CES CONDITIONS AINSI QUE LA PETITE
TAILLE DU COEUR DE SYSTEME SUGGERENT UN FORT POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE D'ICI DIMANCHE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT D'ICI DEMAIN DIMANCHE. PUIS L'INTENSITE
DU SYSTEME POURRAIT STAGNER OU DIMINUER ENSUITE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE
PRES DES ILES, NON SEULEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE MECANISMES INTERNES
(POSSIBLE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL), D'UNE EVENTUELLE
INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES, MAIS AUSSI D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN AUGMENTATION AU PASSAGE
DES MASCAREIGNES, POUVANT APPORTER TEMPORAIREMENT DE L'AIR SEC DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME. MARDI ET MERCREDI PROCHAIN, LE
SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE LENTEMENT AU SUD-EST DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES ET
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE NON SEULEMENT DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET MOINS
ENERGETIQUES, MAIS RENCONTRER EGALEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND
PERSISTANT DE SECTEUR OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT
AUX MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :

LA REUNION :
- PASSAGE DU COEUR INTENSE DU SYSTEME PROBABLE A MOINS DE 100 KM DE
L'ILE ENTRE LA FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET LA JOURNEE DE
LUNDI.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PREVUS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR 18UTC,
FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE A PARTIR DE LUNDI 00UTC AVEC POSSIBILITE DE
FORCE OURAGAN. PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES AUTOUR DE LUNDI MATIN.
- FORTES PLUIES SUPERIEURES A 200MM EN 24H DANS LES HAUTS A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE ET SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE L'ILE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A
LUNDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 500-1000MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS ENTRE
DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GROSSISSANT A PLUS DE 6
METRES DIMANCHE SOIR ET AVOISINANT 8M LUNDI. LES VAGUES LES PLUS
HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE DEUX FOIS CES HAUTEURS.

MAURICE :
- INFLUENCE PROBABLEMENT PLUS PERIPHERIQUE QU'A LA REUNION, MAIS ON
NE PEUT EXCLURE UNE INFLUENCE PLUS DIRECTE, ETANT DONNEE
L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLES LUNDI SOIR. FAIBLE
PROBABILITE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE. A AFFINER.
- FORTES PLUIES DE L'ORDRE DE 100-200MM EN 24H LUNDI.
- VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI ET
DEPASSANT LES 6M EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 130619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 55.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 330NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/13 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 56.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/13 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

SINCE 18UTC, THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM LINKED TO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE, FAVOURING A
RETURN TO MORE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER,
ORGANIZED IN CURVED PERIPHERAL BANDS - PROOF, IF ANY WERE NEEDED, OF
A SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CIRCULATION. WHAT'S MORE, IN THE
ANIMATION OF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES, THE CENTER BECOMES HARDER
TO DISCERN, AS IT IS COVERED BY CONVECTION PUFFS. THE NORTHWARD
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS ALSO LESS PRONOUNCED,
AND HAS MOVED TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. A CURVED BAND
DVORAK ANALYSIS REVEALS A 0.55 WRAP ON A LOG10 SPIRAL, SUGGESTING A
DT OF 2.5+, OR 35KT IN MEAN WIND. THIS SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE IS IN LINE
WITH THE ADJUSTED MET, AND CLOSE TO THE AMERICAN OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE REACHED THE STAGE OF A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND WAS NAMED BELAL, IN COORDINATION WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL FORCE IT TO HEAD SOUTH-WESTERLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES UNTIL THE END OF SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES, IT WILL BE STEERED BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE
DIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE WHICH WILL FORCE IT
TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST, WHILE SLOWING IT DOWN NEAR THE
NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY OR
MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND TAKES THE METEOR AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE ISLAND
OF REUNION ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN),
WHICH SHIFTS THE TRACK FURTHER NORTH-WEST OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION
OF THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE
SHORT TERM, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DISTANCES OF PASSAGE AS
CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.

BELAL IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR OVER THE VERTICAL SUPPORTED BY
IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK DEEP SHEAR (6KT FROM THE EAST),
VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. WE CAN LOGICALLY EXPECT REGULAR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE SOUTH OF THE 20TH PARALLEL, DUE NOT ONLY
TO POSSIBLE INTERNAL MECHANISMS, BUT ALSO TO A MORE INVASIVE
SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE
MASCAREIGNES, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS, REACHING COOLER, LESS
ENERGETIC WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING PERSISTENT DEEP, MODERATE TO
STRONG, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON
SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY
REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING FOR REUNION, BETWEEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MAURITIUS.
STORM FORCE WINDS (POSSIBLY EVEN HURRICANE FORCE) LIKELY ON MONDAY.
TO BE CONFIRMED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
-HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
REUNION FROM SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN
24HRS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN REUNION,
MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/2/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 56.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 45
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/01/2024 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 14/01/2024 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 14/01/2024 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 15/01/2024 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 15/01/2024 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 16/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 18/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 315 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20232024
S'EST GRADUELLEMENT DELITEE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT CONSIDERABLEMENT RECHAUFFES. UNE
CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR EST, EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, SEMBLE
ETRE RESPONSABLE EN PARTIE DE CET ETAT. MALGRE TOUT, D'AUTRES SIGNES
OBJECTIFS MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE SEMBLE SE CONSOLIDER PEU
A PEU, COMME L'ATTESTENT PAR EXEMPLE LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDES
GMI DE 1457Z ET AMSR-2 DE 1013Z QUI PRESENTENT UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF
FERME EN 37GHZ. CE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL RESTE TEMPORAIRE, ET
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME JUSQU'AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE RESTE D'ACTUALITA , A COURT TERME. L'INTENSITE EST FIXEE A 30
KT EN VENT MOYEN, COMPTE TENU DU CONTEXTE PRE-CITE ET RESTE CONFORME
AUX ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES (JTWC - KNES) ET OBJECTIVES (ADT-AIDT),
AINSI QUE DANS LA MOYENNE DU DPRINT/DMINT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE DE BASSES
COUCHES POSITIONNEE AU SUD-EST. ELLE LUI IMPOSE UN TRAJET VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EN DIRECTION DU NORD DES MASCAREIGNES JUSQU'A SAMEDI SOIR.
PAR LA SUITE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME L'EMMENERAIT A ETRE PILOTE
PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE PLUS HAUTE ALTITUDE, SUR LE FLANC OCCIDENTAL
D'UNE DORSALE QUI LUI IMPOSERAIT UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD PUIS
SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT A PROXIMITE NORD DES GRANDES
MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI OU LUNDI MATIN.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PLUS SUD QUE LA PREVISION
PRECEDENTE ET FAIT EVOLUER LE METEORE AU PLUS PROCHE DE L'ILE DE LA
REUNION LUNDI MATIN. CE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE EST BASE SUR LE
TIMING DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES (EUROPEENNES ET
AMERICAINES), QUI DECALENT LA TRAJECTOIRE PLUS A L'OUEST ET AU SUD,
TOUT EN A TANT UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE. LA DISPERSION DES MEMBRES DE
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE RESTE IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES, INDUISANT DE
FAIT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LES DISTANCES DE PASSAGE PRES DES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI ET PLUS TARD.

EN DEHORS DE LA CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR EST, RELEVEE A 18 UTC
(ET SANS DOUTE JUSQU'AU PROCHAIN RESEAU), LE MINIMUM BENEFICIE
GLOBALEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC UNE BONNE
ALIMENTATION EN AIR HUMIDE PORTEE PAR UNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES SATISFAISANTE, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND, DES EAUX TRES
CHAUDES A FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. ON PEUT DONC S'ATTENDRE A UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE
QUI LUI FERAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AU MOMENT DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE
SUD-SUD-EST, EN APPROCHE DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION -
MAURICE), LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SON INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU
STADE PROBABLE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.
PUIS L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT STAGNER ENSUITE, NON SEULEMENT
SOUS L'EFFET DE MECANISMES INTERNES, MAIS AUSSI D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST PLUS INVASIF AU
PASSAGE DES MASCAREIGNES, POUVANT APPORTER TEMPORAIREMENT DE L'AIR
SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME. MARDI ET MERCREDI PROCHAIN,
LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE AU SUD-OUEST DES GRANDES MASCAREIGNES ET DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE NON SEULEMENT DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET MOINS ENERGETIQUES,
MAIS RENCONTRER EGALEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND PERSISTANT DE
SECTEUR OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT DANS LES MOYENNE
LATITUDE.

IMPACTS PREVUS SUR REUNION ET MAURICE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72
HEURES :
- DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 4 METRES SONT ATTENDUES AU NORD DES
MASCAREIGNES EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE GROSSISSANT JUSQU'A 6 METRES
DIMANCHE SOIR. LES VAGUES LES PLUS HAUTES PEUVENT ATTEINDRE DEUX FOIS
CES HAUTEURS.
- VENT DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PROBABLE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR POUR
LA REUNION, LUNDI POUR MAURICE. VENT DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLE LUNDI,
AVEC UNE POSSIBILITE DE FORCE OURAGAN ENTRE DIMANCHE SOIR ET LUNDI
SOIR. A CONFIRMER SELON L'EVOLUTION DU SUYSTEME.
-FORTES PLUIES SUPERIEURES A 100MM EN 24H DANS LES HAUTS DE LA
REUNION A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR. FORTES PLUIES SUPERIEURES A 100MM EN
24H POSSIBLE SUR L'ENSEMBLE DU TERRITOIRE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR A
LA REUNION, LUNDI POUR MAURICE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 130011
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 56.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.


GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=